Bord Bia Meat Prospects Seminar
11 January 2013
International Policy,
Developments and Consequences
Philip Carroll, Assistant Secretary
Department of Agriculture, Food and the
Marine
Policy Context
Opportunities and challenges
• Food Harvest 2020
• EU Multiannual financial framework
• CAP reform
• International markets
Food Harvest 2020
Opportunities & Challenges
• The world’s population will be over 9 billion in
2050
• The OECD predicts continued commodity price
rises
• Ireland has a number of competitive advantages
 Pre-existing image of a “green” island- grassbased production systems with low-carbon
footprint
 Well developed export orientated industry
 Industry buy-in to Food Harvest 2020 vision
 Good progress to date
2012’s Milestones for Success reported on progress
€m
Gross Value Added (€m)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
8,568
6,393
6,053
2008 Baseline
FH2020
Target
2010 (Latest data)
2020 Target
Achieved
(latest available data)
Exports
42%
12% (2012)
Primary
33%
22% (2012)
Value-added
40%
5.6% (2010 )
Food Harvest 2020
Opportunities & Challenges
 Impressive growth in Meat Exports between 2009 and 2012:
Beef:
Up 33% to €1.9bn
(Represents 21% of all Food & Drink Exports)
Pigmeat:
Up 55% to €457m
Sheepmeat:
Up 26% to €205m
Industry Challenges
 Increasing volatility on global commodity markets
 Ever present risks on food safety and animal disease
Strong controls in place but vigilance required
Industry Challenges
 Challenging environment for innovative food start-ups
 Large investment requirements for dairy expansion
 The sustainable intensification challenge/opportunity –
green growth
Multiannual financial framework
• For decision by Heads of State and Government
• Possibility of agreement at February European
Council
• Covers many CAP reform issues
• Proposals for reductions in allocations for CAP
– Both pillar 1 and pillar 2
MFF – Key issues
• Overall funding;
• Convergence of direct payments between MS;
• Greening percentage;
• Capping;
• Flexibility between pillars;
• Risks to Irish allocation
– Pillar 2 in particular
CAP reform – key issues
• Policy changes
–
–
–
–
Internal convergence
Greening
Market supports
Other
• Current position
– Good technical progress in Council
– Parallel progress in EP
– Aim is political agreement in Irish Presidency
International Markets
Market access openings/certificates agreed for meat
products in 2012 and 2013 to date:
• UAE – age restriction on Irish beef lifted; sheepmeat and
poultrymeat certs agreed
• Singapore, and South Africa – sheepmeat certs agreed
• Russia-customs Union – sheepmeat cert agreed with EU
• Serbia – pork cert agreed
• Morocco – poultrymeat cert agreed
• Iran – ban on Irish beef lifted
• Progress made in our efforts to gain access to Japan, South
Korea and China for beef and Australia and Vietnam for
pork
International policy developments
WTO Bali Ministerial Dec 2013:
• Political pressure to restore some credibility to WTO given
long impasse in DDA negotiations:
• Current WTO negotiations focussed on delivering early
outcomes on some issues - Trade Facilitation, some
Agriculture issues – TRQ Admin, export comp., and
Developing Country provisions in Green Box;
• Pressure to deliver early outcome on export subsidy
elimination.
EU/MERCOSUR
• Momentum has slowed considerably
Discussions continuing but negotiations
effectively stalled.
• Exclusion of Paraguay and inclusion of
Venezuela in Mercosur
• Trade Disputes between Argentina and Spain
Canada/EU negotiations ( CETA)
Pressure to conclude agreement early in 2013.
• Opportunities : Dairy and beverages.
• Challenges: Non recognition of OIE standards
by Canada/Canada demanding a large Beef
Quota.
• Ireland’s position raised at all political levels
US market
• Beef and sheep-meat Market Access
• BSE and TSE rule: Estimated that rules could
be moved at the same time in Summer 2013.
• EU /US FTA:
• Opportunities: Access for Beef, sheep-meat
and dairy products.
• Challenges: Quotas for US hormone free beef.
Other FTAs
• India : More positive indications now emerging for movement in
first half of 2013 : Market opportunities in Dairy and beverages
exports.
• Japan: Agreement to open FTA negotiations: Discussions could take
a number of years.
Issues arising : Beef market access
Gate price tariff system for Pork
• Singapore : FTA Concluded. Market already very open for dairy
products. Opportunities for beverages and meat.
• Vietnam: 2nd round of negotiations: Opportunities for meat and
Dairy products( incl. low fat products) in addition to beverages
2013 Priorities
• Presidency
– Support Framework
• Bilateral and Multilateral Trade Negotiations
• Market Access
• Disease Free and Food Safety Controls
Bord Bia Meat Prospects Seminar
11 January 2013
International Policy,
Developments and Consequences
Philip Carroll, Assistant Secretary
Department of Agriculture, Food and the
Marine