Status and futures in the Pelagic
industry
By Julian Vangen
Irish Pelagic Seminar
Killybegs, Ireland
11th of November - 2011
Kontali Analyse AS
Kontali Analyse AS
Subjects of today:
• A brief overview of the global trade flow of some major seafood
commodities.
• The resent development for some particular interesting pelagic
fisheries world-wide
• A study of the importance of the major African markets.
• Resent development in some key markets for pelagic fish
• Development for the fishmeal industry
• Development in inventory for some major products
• A brief overview of the development in the Norwegian pelagic industry
Kontali Analyse AS
”Mission”
”We will tell the world how much fish and
seafood that are produced and we will tell the
world where this seafood is consumed.”
”Vision”
”We shall be the prefered provider of
decission basis connected to the seafood
business”
Kontali Analyse AS
• Established in Norway in 1980.
• 12 employees i Kristiansund, Norway
• A substitute of the stock listed IMAREX.
• USA based Nymex/Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the
largest single owner of IMAREX.
Service and products from Kontali
Analyse AS
Regular publications:
Agreements:
- Kontali Monthly Salmon Report
- Marine Harvest/Lerøy
- Kontali Monthly Pelagic Report
- Cermaq
- Kontali Monthly Cod and Groundfish Reports
- Nutreco / Biomar
- Kontali Seabass & Seabream Update
- DNB Nor / Nordea ++ (Finance)
- Kontali Aquaculture Bulletin
- Fiskaren / Intrafish
- Several other weekly and monthly reports
- Fishpool
( Salmon and fish feed ind.)
- Salmon World
- Pelagic World
- Groundfish World
- The Salmon Farming Industry in Norway
- Salmon Market Analysis
(Fish feed ind.)
(Media)
(Fish exchange)
- Norges Råfisklag
Reports:
(Salmon industry)
- Marine Farms
(Norwegian sales org.)
(Farm seabass/seabream)
- Benchmarking 1st hand prices salmon
Ad Hoc missions:
-
Evaluations/reviews
- Lectures/Chart writing/ Workshop
- Prognosis
- Trade political assistance.
Kontali Analyse – Kunder World Wide
A brief overview of the global
trade flow of some major
seafood species
The World of Seafood
Total Seafood Resources (10E)
150 mill tonnes
Fisheries – 91 mill tonnes
Pelagic species
Groundfish
Oth. marine fish
Freshwater fish
Molluscs/Squid
Crustac./Shrimp
Salmonids
Other
36,0 mill
21,0 mill
9,0 mill
9,5 mill
7,5 mill
5,5 mill
1,1 mill
1,4 mill
Aquaculture – 59 mill tonnes
Carp
21,5 mill
Tilapia
3,5 mill
Catfishes
3,0 mill
Oth. Freshw. Fish
8,6 mill
Molluscs
13,0 mill
Crustac./Shrimp
5,7 mill
Salmonids
2,5 mill
Demersal marine
1,1 mill
Source: Kontali Analyse / FAO
Trade flow 2010 Alaska Pollock
(1 000 tonnes r.w)
E 750
RU:
110
USA
C
20
860
24
0
C 1577
17
0
1000
74
0
E
1000
20
20
180
JPN
E 1 000
Korea:
CHINA
C
C
200
40
10
10
0
19
0
70
5
10
0
5
23
0
Trade flow 2010
Atlantic and Pacific Cod
(1 000 tonnes r.w)
30
E 340
2
E
190
75
5
E 12
E 61
EU:
USA:
C
220
I
76
C
10
E 65
267
32
0
127
I 1283
85
E
270
7
5
E 145
2
10
14
5
61
CHINA
90
17
0
6
50
2
54
E 415
27
6
30
8
11
28
Definitions:
C = Catch
F = Farmed
E = Export
20
11
40
Trade flow 2010
Hake species
(1 000 tonnes)
10
8
7
20
CA:
C
E 60
57
20
EU:
20
C
40
USA:
5
13
0
10
10
10
54
E 60
C 152
15
10
5
CHINA
5
E 30
19
0
30
0
2
5
E 100
E 200
CH/PU:
NA:
C 111
C 135
E 50
Definitions:
C = Catch
I = Import
E = Export
E 130
Arg/Urg:
C 310
E 300
SA:
C 120
12
TRADE FLOW ATLANTIC HERRING 2010
RUSSIA
Catch: 198 000
ICELAND
Catch: 254 000
CANADA
Catch: 154 000 (2009)
USA
Catch: 68 000
USA
Supply from
Canada: 45 000
NORWAY
Catch: 912 000
EU
Catch: 420 000
EU
Supply from
Norway: 319 000
Iceland: 117 000
Canada: 8 500
Source: Kontali Analyse / FAO
UKRAINE
Supply from
Norway: 85 000
EU: 11 000
Iceland:10 000
KASAKHSTAN
Supply from
Norway: 27 000
AFRICA
Supply from
Norway: 152 000
EU: 82 000
CENTRAL AMERICA
Supply from
Canada: 30 000
RUSSIA
Supply from
Norway: 212 000
Iceland: 32 000
EU: 13 000
JAPAN
Supply from
USA: 26 500
Russia: 5 500
Norway: 3 500
Others: 1 300
TRADE FLOW ATLANTIC MACKEREL 2010
NORWAY
Catch: 294 000
ICELAND
Catch: 120 000
CANADA
Catch: 42 000 (2009)
USA
Catch: 22 000
USA
Supply from
Canada: 20 000
FAEROE
Catch: 65 000
EU
Catch: 310 000
EU
Supply from
Norway: 28 000
Canada: 10 000
Iceland: 10 000
AFRICA
Supply from
Iceland: 4 600
EU: 62 000
Norway: 30 500
Faeroe: 24 000
Source: Kontali Analyse / FAO
RUSSIA
Catch: 40 000
RUSSIA
Supply from
Norway: 16 000
EU:54 000
Iceland: 34 000
UKRAINE
Supply from
Norway: 8 500
EU: 7 000
TURKEY
Supply from
Norway: 26 000
CHINA
Supply from
Norway: 51 000
EU: 5 000
JAPAN
Supply from
Norway: 74 000
EU: 1 200
Canada: 900
TRADE FLOW FISHMEAL 2010
Canada
Supply from Peru, Chile:26 000 tonnes
Supply from USA: 15 000 tonnes
Supply from EU 8 000 tonnes
Production Europe: 800 000 tonnes
Supply from: Peru, Chile: 280 000 tonnes
Production USA: 250 000 tonnes
Supply from Peru, Chile: 16 000 tonnes
Supply from Mexico: 6 000 tonnes
Production Asia: 1,5 mill tonne
Supply from Peru, Chile: 970 000 tonnes:
Supply from Europe: 20 000 tonnes
Supply from USA: 45 000 tonnes
Turkey
Supply from Peru, Chile: 20 000
tonnes
Production Africa:
150 000 tonnes
Production South America:
1,5 mill tonnes
Source: Kontali Analyse / FAO
Australia
Supply from Peru, Chile: 18 000
tonnes
Global trade 2010:
Farmed salmon & trout – world wide (Atl. salmon, large trout, coho & chinook in tonnes wfe)
Norway, Faroe Islands,
Iceland:
Harvest: 1 045 000
North America:
Harvest: 140 000
Market 335 000
Market : 42 000
Russia:
Harvest: 12 000
Market: 157 000
Japan:
Harvest: 10 000
Market: 250 000
EU:
Harvest: 204 000
Market: 800 000
Other Asia:
Market: 140 000
Latin America:
Harvest (CL): 430 000
Market:
80 000
Australia & New Zealand:
Harvest: 47 000
Market: 40 000
Summary
• 80% of all cod caught globally are consumed in the Europe
• 50% of all Alaska Pollock caught globally are consumed in the Europe
• 40% of all Hakes caught globally are consumed in the Europe
• 50% of global farmed salmon and trout are consumed in the Europe
• 50% of all Herring caught globally are consumed in the Europe
• 45% of all Mackerel caught globally are consumed in the Europe
• 30% of all fishmealproduction ends in the European markets.
• However, approx. 100 – 110 mill. tonnes of aquatic organisms caught
or farmed, do not ends in the EU markets.
Pelagic industry role in the
global fisheries
Pelagic industry role in the world fisheries
Mill tonnes
Catch development world fisheries 1950 - 2009
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
0
Pelagic industry role in the world fisheries
1 000 tonnes
12 biggest fishing nations
70.000
Norway
Myanmar
60.000
50.000
40.000
Philippines
Thailand
Russia
Chile
30.000
India
20.000
Japan
10.000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009
Source: FAO
USA
Indonesia
Peru
China
Pelagic industry role in the world fisheries
Mill tonnes
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Catch development pelagic fisheries 1950 - 2009
(incl.Tunas and Blue Whiting)
Pelagic industry role in the world fisheries
1%
4%
World fisheries 2009
3%
7%
41 %
11 %
Pelagic
Marine
Demersal
Marine
Freshwater
Diadrom
Marine Fish
Nes
Crustaceans
2%
Molluscs
21 %
Aquatic
Plants
World fisheries 1970
3%
Cephalopods
12 %
2%
3%
8%
8%
47 %
27 %
Pelagic
Marine Fish
Demersal
Marine Fish
Freshwater
Diadrom
Marine Fish
Nes
Crustaceans
Cephalopod
s
Molluscs
Excl Cephlp
Aquatic
Plants
Pelagic industry role in the world fisheries
Trends in some main pelagic fisheries 1980 - 2011 E
30.000
1000 tonnes
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
European pilchard
Sardines (Araucunian herring)
Chub mackerel
Anchoveta
Atlantic mackerel
South American pilchard
Blue whiting
Capelin
Chilean jack mackerel
Atlantic herring
Pelagic industry role in the world fisheries
1000 tonnes
40.000
Largest nations pelagic fisheries
35.000
Others
India
30.000
Mexico
25.000
USA
20.000
15.000
10.000
Norway
Philippines
Japan
Indonesia
5.000
China
0
Chile
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: FAO
Peru
The resent development for
some particular interesting
pelagic fisheries world-wide
Latest development in catches
Tonnes
12 000 000
11 000 000
10 000 000
9 000 000
8 000 000
7 000 000
6 000 000
5 000 000
4 000 000
3 000 000
2 000 000
Development in catches of Anchoveta
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
E
Latest development in catches
Tonnes
3 000 000
Development in catches of Atlantic Herring
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
E
1st hand prices NSS
Development 1st hand price Herring. Total volumes sold
through the Norwegian sales organisation.
NOK/kg
4,50
4,00
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
YTD
Latest development in catches
Tonnes
3 000 000
Development in catches of Blue Whiting
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
E
1st hand prices NSS
Development 1st hand price Blue Whiting. Total
NOK/kg volumes sold through the Norwegian sales organisation.
1,80
1,60
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
YTD
Latest development in catches
Tonnes
3 000 000
Development in catches Chilean Jack Mackerel
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
E
Latest development in catches
South Pacific Horse Mackerel. Price CFR Africa, onboard
frozen
USD/tonnes
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Latest development in catches
Tonnes
1 200 000
Development in catches of Atlantic Mackerel
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
E
Latest development for some species
with particular interest
Development in catches of Mackerel
1 400 000
Canada
1 200 000
USA
1 000 000
Other EU
UK
800 000
Russia
600 000
Faroe Isl.
400 000
Norway
200 000
Ireland
Japan
-
1st hand prices NSS
Development 1st hand price Mackerel. Total volumes sold through the Norwegian sales
organisation.
NOK/kg
14.00
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 YTD
1st hand prices NSS
Mackerel, first hand prices Norway
• 600 g +. Price up by approx. 160%
from 2010. Volumes very small.
14,00
0,00
• 500 – 600 g. Price up by 65%.
Volumes constitute approx. 7% of
total.
325 g -
2,00
325 g -
4,00
500 - 600 g
600 g +
6,00
325-500 g+
8,00
325-500 g+
Nok/kg
600 g +
10,00
500 - 600 g
12,00
Mackerel, first hand prices Norway
2010
15,00
2011
10,00
• 325 – 500 g. Price up by 25%.
Volumes constitute 90% of total.
Nok/kg
5,00
• 325 g -. Price up approx. 30%, very
small volumes.
0,00
600 g +
2010
2011
500 g +
325 - 500
g
325 g -
Latest development in catches
Tonnes
300 000
Development in catches of Atlantic Horse Mackerel
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
E
1st hand prices NSS
Development 1st hand price Horse Mackerel. Total
NOK/kg volumes sold through the Norwegian sales organisation.
4,50
4,00
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
YTD
Latest development in catches
Catches , Pacific Horse Mackerel, Japan
Tonnes
180 000
160 000
140 000
120 000
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
Latest development in catches
JPY/kg
Development in 1st hand price , Pacific Horse Mackerel,
Japan
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
2009
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
2010
sep
oct
2011
nov
dec
Latest development in catches
Catches , Pacific Mackerel, Japan
Tonnes
600 000
500 000
400 000
300 000
200 000
100 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 E
Latest development in catches
Development in 1st hand price , Pacific Mackerel, Japan
JPY/kg
160
2009
140
2010
2011
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Latest development in catches
Tonnes
140 000
120 000
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
Development in catches of Boarfish
Est tot. 2012
UK
Denmark
Ireland
Summary
• From 2010 to 2011, it is expected a growth in the supply of the presented
pelagic recourses by approx. 2,4 mill tonnes.
• Anchovies supplies are assumed to be up by 3,5 mill tonnes, while supply
of Atlantic mackerel is expected to increase by approx. 80 000 tonnes.
• For all the other species, there are drops in supply. Supply of BlueWhiting and Atlantic Herring is down the most by 450 000 tonnes and 400
000 tonnes, respectively.
• The price level is notably up from 2010 to 2011 for the majority of the
species, Atlantic herring is up 60%, while other products are up approx.
15%.
• The exception is the price level in Japan where first hand prices remain
more or less unchanged from 2010 to 2011.
Resent development in some
major African markets
How important are the African markets?
A special focus on the following nations: Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Mali,
Senegal, Côte d´Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon og Gabon.
Supply from fisheries in Morocco/Mauritania.
Tonn
Est tot 2011
Others
Poland
Latvia
Nederland
1 800 000
Mauritania
Lithuania
Belize
Russia
Morocco
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
2011 E
2010 E
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Source: FAO/KA-Est
The reasent development in the supply
situation in Morocco.
Tonn
140 000
2009
2010
2011
120 000
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
-
Source; ONP
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
So, how is the development in
pelagic catches in the major
supplying nations to the
African markets?
Development in catches in Namibia/Sør-Afrika
Tonnes
NA pilchard
SA Horse mackerel
SA Pilchard
NA Horse Mackerel
800 000
700 000
600 000
500 000
400 000
300 000
200 000
100 000
2011E
2010E
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Source: FAO/KA-Est
2001
2000
-
Jack Mackerel in the Southern Pacific
Development in catches, South Pacific Jack Mackerel
2 750 000
2 250 000
Tonnes
1 750 000
1 250 000
750 000
390 000 T
250 000
2003
Source: SPRFMO/KA-Est
Chile
Dutch
2004
China
Poland
2005
2006
Vanuatu
Faroe/UK
2007
2008
Russ/Peru
Est catch
2009
2010
Korea
Equador
2011
YTD
Jack Mackerel in the Southern Pacific
Development in high sea catches, South Pacific Jack Mackerel
450 000
400 000
350 000
Tonnes
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
140 000 T
100 000
50 000
2011
YTD
Korea
Est catch
2010
2007
2005
2006
Russ/Peru
Faroe/UK
2009
Vanuatu
Poland
2008
China
Dutch
2004
Source: SPRFMO
2003
-
Development in catches in Japan
700 000
Jack mackerel
600 000
Pacific mackerel
500 000
Tonnes
400 000
300 000
200 000
100 000
jan - jul
11
jan - jul
10
2011 E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
Development in catches in Island/Færøyene
and the EU
Tonnes
Herr FO
Mack FO
Mack ISL
H-Mack EU
Herr ISL
Mack EU
Herr EU
2 000 000
1 800 000
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
2011 E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Source: FVE, Fiskistofa, DDF/KA-Est
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
Development in catches in Canada og USA
Tonnes
Mack USA
Mack CA
Herr USA
Herr CA
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
2011 E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Source: NOAA, CDFO/KA-Est
2002
2001
2000
-
Development in catches in Norway and Russia
Tonnes
RU Mack
NO Mack
Ru Herr
NO Herr
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
2011 E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Source: FIDIR, CORMFC/KA-Est
2003
2002
2001
-
Summary:
•
The catches in the major ”local” fishing nations have a negative
development lately. From 2009 – 2011, the cateches are down by approx.
400 – 500 000 tonnes.
•
Development in total catches in nations that are competing to supply
pelagic products to the African market show a considerable drop the
last two years. From 2009 to 2011, the total catches are down by approx.
500 000 tonnes.
•
Out of this we understand that the total available volumes of the major
pelagic species are down by approx. 900 000 tonnes from 2009 to 2011.
•
Compared to the top year the last 10 years, the total available volumes
for the target species are down by approx. 2.4 mill tonnes. The Chilean
horse mackerel constituted approx. 1 mill tonnes in the top year. A large
share of this was utilized for fishmeal/fishoil. However, the reduced
available volumes for consumption products is approx. 1.3 – 1.5 mill
tonnes.
Development in supply of
pelagic fish to the main
African markets.
Supply of Chilean Jack Mackerel to the
particular interesting markets
400 000
350 000
Tonnes
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Int. Fiske
2005
2004
2003
Chile
Supply of herring to the particular
interesting markets.
300 000
250 000
Tonnes
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
Jan - Jul 11
Jan - Jul 10
2010
EU
2009
2008
Norway
2007
2006
Iceland
2005
2004
USA
2003
2002
2001
Faeroe
Supply of Pacific mackerel to the particular
interesting markets(Eksp. Japan).
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
Tonnes
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
Jan - Jul 11
Jan - Jul 10
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
Supply of mackerel to the particular interesting
markets.
140 000
120 000
Tonnes
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
Jan - Jul
11
Jan - Jul
10
EU
2010
2009
Faeroe
2008
Norway
2007
2006
Iceland
2005
2004
Canada
2003
2002
2001
USA
We can sum up the supply situation:
•
The estimated change in supply of the chosen major pelagic
resources to the chosen African markets was down by approx.
45 000 tonnes from 2005 to 2011.
•
2009 was the top year so far this millennium. From 2009 to 2010
there was a estimated drop in supply by approx. 70 000 tonnes.
•
For 2011, we expect the supplies of the chosen pelagic
resources to the African markets to continue to drop compared
to 2010 by 80 000 – 110 000 tonnes.
•
Expected drop in local catches (African catches) can be as
much as 250 – 300 000 tonnes from 2010 to 2011.
•
This means that there can be a reduced availability of pelagic
resources in the chosen African markets this year compared to
2010 by 330 – 410 000 tonnes.
How is the global distribution
of the major pelagic fish
species we have in focus?
The main species and the main markets:
2 mill tonnes
2.3 mill tonnes
Human consum.
Herring
Sardin
Chub Mack
1.99 mill tonnes
Ch.J.Mack
Atl.Mack
Sardinella
JPN J.Mack
1.75 mill tonnes
0.93 mill tonnes
1.2 mill tonnes
0.85 mill tonnes
0.65 mill tonnes
0.40 mill tonnes
0.33 mill tonnes
0.25 mill tonnes
0.23 mill tonnes
0.18 mill tonnes
Total: 6 mill tonnes
0.75 mill tonnes
0.52 mill tonnes
0.33 mill tonnes
0.9 mill tonnes
Cape H.Mack
0.25 mill tonnes
0.23 mill tonnes
0.8 mill tonnes
= 9 mill tonnes
Meal/oil
Atl. Horse
Mack
0.7 mill tonnes
0.3 mill tonnes
0.1 mill tonnes
0.1 mill tonnes
0.05 mill tonnes
Total: 3 mill tonnes
The demographic development
in these markets will
definitely influence the
future demand for seafood
products.
Development in population and GDP.
Mill
390 000
USD
4 500
Population
370 000
GDP - per capita (PPP) (US$)
4 000
350 000
3 500
330 000
310 000
3 000
290 000
2 500
270 000
250 000
2 000
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Source: CIA
Summary
• The supply situation is stabilizing, however at a historical low level.
• The African markets constitute approx. 30% for products for human
consumption from the pelagic species with importance for the North Atlantic
and South Pacific industry.
• In the African markets, there are a growing population and a increasing
spending power. GDP is more than doubled during the last five years.
• The importers and the industry in the African markets are familiar with
payment up front and/or Reimburse as payment solutions. A risk reducing
solution for the sales operators.
• In Norway, the 20kg blast frozen box is standard for the industry. In African
markets the Dutch block (25kg), or the Russian 3 x 10kg block is more
familiar. Perhaps the Irish industry can be more competitive in the African
markets than the Norwegians?
Some more details from the
resent development in some key
markets for the pelagic industry
Japan, Mackerel
Development import mackerel, Japan
Tonnes
200 000
JPY/kg
300
180 000
280
160 000
260
140 000
240
120 000
220
100 000
200
80 000
180
60 000
160
40 000
140
20 000
120
-
100
Japan, Mackerel
Tonnes
Norwegian export of mackerel to Japan
160 000
140 000
JPY/kg
300
250
120 000
100 000
200
80 000
150
60 000
100
40 000
• The price, calculated in NOK, increased by
approx. 66% from 2000 to 2010. JPY/NOK
dropped 16% in this period.
• From 2010 to 2011 there is a 26% growth in
prices calculated in NOK/kg, while JPY/NOK
remained unchanged.
50
20 000
0
0
Tonnes
6 000
5 000
• For the Irish mackerel, prices calculated in
EUR dropped by approx. 12% from 2000 to
2010. JPY/EUR dropped by 6% in this
period.
4 000
JPY/kg
250
200
150
3 000
2 000
1 000
• From 2010 to 2011 there was a 13%
increase in prices calculated in EUR, while
JPY/EUR strengthened by approx. 5%.
Irish export of frozen mackerel to Japan
0
100
50
0
Japan, Mackerel
Tonnes
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
Danish export of frozen mackerel to Japan
18,00
16,00
14,00
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
Tonnes
UK export of frozen mackerel to Japan
3.500
1,60
3.000
1,40
2.500
1,20
2.000
1.500
1.000
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
500
0,20
0
0,00
Japan, Mackerel
Headline from local news paper Nikkan Suisan
Karzai Shimbun:
Major importers and packers are remaining calm and
view the price increase as temporary. However some
importers have decided not to buy any stock until the
price returns to its seasonal average.
Japan, Herring
Tonnes
Norwegian export of herring fillet to JapanPrice/kg
2500
210
JPY/Kg
2000
190
170
1500
150
1000
130
110
500
0
90
70
Tonnes
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Norwegian export of frozen herring to Japan JPY/kg
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
South Korea, Mackerel
Total Mackerel Market Volume
(1999-2010)
300,000
250,000
MT
200,000
150,000
Imports
Domestic
100,000
50,000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
South Korea, Mackerel
The majority of the increase in import comes from China and Japan, but….
Imports of frozen whole mackerel per country
Russia, Mackerel
5 000
17
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
7
Irish export of frozen mackerel to Russia
Tonnes
12 000
RUB/kg
80
70
10 000
60
8 000
50
6 000
40
30
4 000
20
2 000
10
0
2011 per
Jul
27
2010 per
Jul
10 000
2010
37
2009
15 000
2008
47
2007
20 000
2005
57
2010 per
Sep
2011 per
Sep
25 000
2004
NOK/kg
2003
RUB/Kg
Price/kg
67
2002
30 000
2001
Norwegian export of mackerel to Russia
Tonnes
0
Russia, Herring
Tonnes
40.000
35.000
Norwegian export of herring fillet to Russia
RUB/Kg
NOK/kg
Price/kg
60
50
30.000
25.000
40
20.000
30
15.000
20
10.000
5.000
-
10
0
Tonnes
Norwegian export of herring to Russia
Price/kg
35
250.000
30
200.000
25
150.000
RUB/Kg
20
15
100.000
10
50.000
-
NOK/kg
5
0
Ukraine, Mackerel
Tonnes
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
UK export of frozen mackerel to Ukraine
2,00
1,80
1,60
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
Tonnes
Norwegian export of mackerel to Ukraina
30 000
UAH/kg
25 000
NOK/kg
Price/kg
20
18
16
20 000
14
15 000
12
10 000
10
8
5 000
0
6
4
Ukraine, Herring
Tonnes
18 000
16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
-
Norwegian export of herring fillet to Ukraine Price/kg
UAH/kg
NOK/kg
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Tonnes
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
-
Norwegian export of herring to Ukraine
Price/kg
10
9
8
UAH/kg
7
6
5
4
NOK/kg
3
2
1
0
Egypt, Mackerel
Irish export of frozen mackerel to Egypt
Tonnes
EUR/kg
1,20
16.000
14.000
1,00
12.000
10.000
0,80
8.000
0,60
6.000
0,40
4.000
2.000
0,20
0
0,00
Tonnes
40 000
Export of frozen mackerel from EU to Egypt
EUR/kg Tonnes
1,20 4 000
35 000
1,00
3 500
Norwegian export of mackerel to Egypt
6,00
NOK/kg
3 000
30 000
0,80
25 000
20 000
2 500
Price/kg
7,00
EGP/Kg
5,00
4,00
0,60 2 000
15 000
0,40
10 000
1 500
1 000
0,20
5 000
0
0,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan - Jan Jul 10 Jul 11
3,00
2,00
500
1,00
0
0,00
Egypt, Herring
Tonnes
Norwegian export of herring to Egypt
Price/kg
7,0
25.000
6,0
20.000
5,0
15.000
4,0
NOK/kg
3,0
10.000
2,0
5.000
USD/Kg
1,0
-
0,0
Export of frozen herring from EU to Egypt
45 000
EUR/kg
0,80
40 000
0,70
35 000
0,60
Tonnes
30 000
0,50
25 000
0,40
20 000
0,30
15 000
10 000
0,20
5 000
0,10
0
0,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan - Jan Jul 10 Jul 11
Nigeria, Mackerel species
Tonnes
100 000
Mackerel supply to Nigeria. Export volumes EU, NO, IS, FO and
JP. Avg.exp price EU
90 000
EUR/kg
1,3
1,2
Exp. price EU
80 000
1,1
70 000
60 000
1
50 000
0,9
40 000
0,8
30 000
0,7
20 000
10 000
0,6
0
0,5
2000
2001
2002
Iceland
2003
2004
Faeroe
2005
2006
Japan
2007
2008
Norway
2009
EU
2010
Jan - Jan Sep 10 Sep 11
Nigeria, Herring
Tonnes
250 000
Herring supply to Nigeria. Export volumes NO and EU.
Avg.exp.price EU
EUR/kg
0,9
0,8
200 000
0,7
0,6
150 000
0,5
0,4
100 000
0,3
0,2
50 000
0,1
0
0
2000
2001
2002
Norway
2003
2004
2005
EU
2006
2007
2008
2009
Exp.price EU
2010
Jan - Jan Sep 10 Sep 11
Germany, Herring
Development in supply of frozen herring to Germany
Tonnes
25 000
Faroe
Norway
EU
Island
Price No
Price Fo
EUR/kg
1,7
Price EU
1,5
20 000
1,3
15 000
1,1
10 000
0,9
5 000
0,7
-
0,5
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Germany, Herring
Development in supply of frozen herring filet to Germany
Tonnes
60 000
50 000
Faroe
Island
Norway
EU
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
Price ISL
EUR/kg
3
2,5
40 000
2
30 000
1,5
20 000
1
10 000
0,5
-
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Germany, Mackerel
Development in supply of frozen mackerl to Germany
Tonnes
16 000
14 000
Faroe
Island
Norway
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
EUR/kg
2,5
EU
2
12 000
10 000
1,5
8 000
1
6 000
4 000
0,5
2 000
-
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Poland, Herring
Development in supply of frozen herring to Poland
Tonnes
30 000
Island
Faroe
Norway
EUR/kg
1,00
EU
0,90
25 000
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
Price ISL
0,80
20 000
0,70
15 000
0,60
10 000
0,50
5 000
0,40
-
0,30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Poland, Herring
Development in supply of frozen herring filet to Poland
Tonnes
60 000
50 000
EUR/kg
1,50
Island
Faroe
Norway
EU
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
Price ISL
1,40
1,30
1,20
40 000
1,10
30 000
1,00
0,90
20 000
0,80
0,70
10 000
0,60
-
0,50
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Poland, Mackerel
Development in supply of frozen mackerel to Poland
Tonnes
45 000
40 000
EUR/kg
1,50
Island
Faroe
Norway
EU
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
Price ISL
1,30
35 000
30 000
1,10
25 000
0,90
20 000
15 000
0,70
10 000
0,50
5 000
-
0,30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
France, Mackerel
Development in supply of frozen mackerel to France
Tonnes
14 000
EUR/kg
1,90
Island
Faroe
Norway
EU
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
Price ISL
12 000
1,70
1,50
10 000
1,30
8 000
1,10
6 000
0,90
4 000
0,70
2 000
0,50
-
0,30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
France, Sardine
Development in supply of frozen sardines to France
Tonnes
30 000
Vol Froz
Vol Herm
Price Froz
Price Herm
EUR/kg
3,80
3,30
25 000
2,80
20 000
2,30
15 000
1,80
10 000
1,30
5 000
0,80
-
0,30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Spain, Sardine
Development in supply of frozen sardines to Spain
Tonnes
50 000
45 000
Vol Froz
Vol Herm
Price Froz
Price Herm
EUR/kg
3,30
2,80
40 000
35 000
2,30
30 000
25 000
1,80
20 000
1,30
15 000
10 000
0,80
5 000
-
0,30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Spain, Mackerel
Development in supply of frozen mackerel to Spain
Tonnes
14 000
EUR/kg
1,90
Island
Faroe
Norway
EU
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
Price ISL
12 000
1,70
1,50
10 000
1,30
8 000
1,10
6 000
0,90
4 000
0,70
2 000
0,50
-
0,30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Turkey, Mackerel
Development in supply of frozen mackerel to Turkey
Tonnes
30 000
Island
Faroe
EU
Norway
Price No
Price Fo
Price EU
Price ISL
EUR/kg
2,10
1,90
25 000
1,70
20 000
1,50
1,30
15 000
1,10
10 000
0,90
0,70
5 000
0,50
-
0,30
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Summary
• In general there is a increasing trend in prices in all the pelagic markets.
• This, despite a situation where the supply of Mackerel from the Icelandic and
the Faroese industry is strongly increasing.
• The total supply of pelagic species are down in 2011 compared to last year,
and this is probably the main explanation for the observed development in
prices.
Icelandic and Faroe Islands
mackerel fishery – impact in the
markets?
Catch development
1000 tonnes
Development in Icelandic catch of Atlantic Mackerel
180
159
160
140
120
112
116
122
2008
2009
2010
100
80
60
37
40
20
0
0
0
0
4
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0
2001
2007
2011 E
1000 tonnes
Development in Faroese catches of Atlantic mackerel
160
150
140
120
100
86
80
60
40
21
23
20
20
12
14
2003
2004
10
12
14
12
14
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
2000
2001
2002
2010
2011 E
Markets for mackerel from Iceland
and the Faroe Islands
Frozen mackerel from Iceland by country
2008
Russia
2 535
Lithuania
766
2009
2010 Change 09/10 Jan - Sep10 Jan - Sep 11 Ch 10/11
8 614 34 153
296 %
31 393
37 883
21 %
1 854 5 329
187 %
4 010
6 007
Nigeria
0
0
3 919
2 885
8 636
Malaysia
0
0
1 751
1 703
2 231
Spain
0
0
1 628
1 427
3
-100 %
97
75
1 053
910
1 624
78 %
0
0
926
322
20 077
6135 %
186
2 647
3 319
1 654
17 828
978 %
44 304
94 289
113 %
Poland
Netherland
Others
Total
3 583 13 190 52 077
1307 %
25 %
295 %
199 %
Frozen mackerel from the Faeroe by country
2007 2008 2009 2010 Change 09/10 Jan - Aug 10 Jan - Aug 11 Ch 10/11
Nigeria
2 205 10 768 16 618 24 306
46 %
19 547
8 389
-57 %
Russia
2 119
Netherlands
1 971
Germany
2 169
965
59
1 948
15 182 25610 %
2 668
Denmark
1 319
930
2 768
198 %
Lithuania
1 020
418
3 857
823 %
1 105
3 469
214 %
22 059
37 299
69 %
Others
Total
44
3 113
1 379
4 881
2 249 16 049 17 997 37 564
254 %
109 %
Impact of incresing supply from
Iceland and the Faroe Islands?
• Export from Norway to Russia is up by few percentages so far this year compared to last year.
In the same period, prices are up 20%. No particular impact of the Faroese and Icelandic
mackerel.
• In the same period, the UK export to Russia show a decreasing trend, down by 20%. Prices
show a increase by 17%. Reduction in volumes can be a result of increased competition from the
Faroese and the Icelandic mackerel.
• Total Norwegian export is down so far by 17%, but the price level for exported products are up
by approx. 30%. The drop in volumes can be a result of a later startup of the season this year
compared to in 2010. At the same time, the total catch volumes are smaller in 2011 compared to
in 2010.
• Comp. to 2010, the Irish export to Russia, Japan and Egypt is up 20%, 780% and 140%,
respectively. Price are up by 5%,40% and 17% calculated in local currencies. No particular sign
of negative impact as a result of Islandic and Faroese competition.
• As we will se later, the stock of frozen mackerel in Norway is higher at the end of Oct this year,
compared to at the same time one year ago. Can be a result of increased competition of the
Icelandic and Faroese mackerel in the markets.
Development in inventories for
some major pelagic species.
Development in Herring
inventory Norway
Change in herring inventory Norway (per season) (Converted to whole fish)
Quantity (tonnes)
340 000
290 000
2009/2010
240 000
2010/2011
190 000
2011/2012
140 000
90 000
40 000
-10 000
-60 000
31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Development in Mackerel
inventory Norway
mai.11
jan.11
sep.10
mai.10
jan.10
sep.09
mai.09
jan.09
sep.08
mai.08
jan.08
sep.07
mai.07
jan.07
sep.06
mai.06
jan.06
sep.05
160
mai.05
jan.05
1000 tonnes
Development in inventory Japan
Cold storage inventory Japan - Pacific Mackerel Jan 05 - Aug 11
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
mai.11
jan.11
sep.10
mai.10
jan.10
sep.09
mai.09
jan.09
sep.08
mai.08
jan.08
sep.07
mai.07
jan.07
sep.06
mai.06
jan.06
sep.05
50
mai.05
jan.05
1000 tonnes
Development in inventory Japan
Cold storage inventory Japan - Jack Mackerel Jan 05 - Aug 11
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Overview of the Norwegian
pelagic industry
Existing players
Company
Group
Location
Company
Austevoll Fiskeindustri
Norway Pelagic ASA
Storebø
H. J. Kyvik AS
Haugesund
Atlantic Dawn Seafoods AS
Atlantic Dawn Ltd
Smøla
Hopen Fisk AS
Hopen
Brødrene Myhre AS
Norway Pelagic ASA
Måløy
Karsten Flem AS
Flemsøya
Ellingsøy
Lofoten Pelagiske AS
Egersund Seafood AS
Svolvær
Brødrene Sperre AS
Group
Location
Bø Fiskeindustri
Nergård Pelagic AS
Bø
Lofoten Viking AS
Nergård Pelagic AS
Væårøy
Norway Pelagic
Norway Pelagic ASA
Måløy
Maaløy Seafood AS
Coast Seafood AS
Måløy
Norway Pelagic
Norway Pelagic ASA
Selje
Modolv Sjøset Pelagic AS
Norway Pelagic ASA
Træna
Norway Pelagic
Norway Pelagic ASA
Kalvåg
Moskenes Fiskeindustri AS
Norway Pelagic Bodø
Norway Pelagic ASA
Bodø
Nergård Bø AS
Nergård Pelagic AS
Bø i Vesterålen
Norway Pelagic Sommarøy
Norway Pelagic ASA
Sommarøy
Nergård sild AS
Nergård Pelagic AS
Senjahopen
Norway Pelagic Bergen
Norway Pelagic ASA
Bergen
Nils Sperre AS
Norway Pelagic Karmsund
Norway Pelagic ASA
Karmsund
North Capelin AS
Egersund Nor AS
Egersund Seafood AS
Tromsø
Darina Fish AS
Midsund
Egersund Seafood AS
Egersund Seafood AS
Egersund
Olav E. Fiskerstrand AS
Fiskerstrand
Emy Fish AS
Norway Pelagic ASA
Måløy
Rørvik Fisk AS
Rørvik
Egersund
Severin Tranvåg AS
Fiskerstrand
Fosnavåg
Sir Fish AS
Norway Pelagic ASA
Sirevåg
Lødingen
Sirevaag AS
Norway Pelagic ASA
Sirevåg
Gimsøy Pelagiske AS
Gimsøy
Skude Fryseri AS
Skudeneshavn
Grøntvedt Pelagic
Uthaug
Sunnmøre Seafood AS
Herøy
Gullfisk AS (Prev Harrengus AS)
Sigerfjord
Torsken Havprodukter AS
Torsken
Vikomar AS
Harøysund
Fonn Egersund AS
Fosnavåg Seafood AS
Fryseriet AS
Norway Pelagic ASA
- Plants closed during 2011.
- Plants merged with Norway Pelagic during 2011
Moskenes
Ellingsøy
Norway Pelagic ASA
Honningsvåg
Financial development Norwegian industry
Latest development EBITDA margin, Consumption industry in Norway
18,0 %
Norway Pelagic/Global
Lofoten Viking
Fosnavaag Seafood
Atlantic Dawn
16,0 %
Olav E. Fiskarstrand AS
Br. Sperre AS
Egersund Seafood AS
Tot.
EBITDA margin
14,0 %
12,0 %
10,0 %
8,0 %
6,0 %
4,0 %
2,0 %
2010
2009
2008
2007
-4,0 %
2006
-2,0 %
2005
0,0 %
Financial development Norwegian industry
Latest development EBITDA margin, Fishmeal industry in Norway
20,0 %
EBITDA margin
15,0 %
10,0 %
5,0 %
0,0 %
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-5,0 %
-10,0 %
Vedde AS
Måløy Sildoljefabrikk AS
Bodø Sildoljefabrikk AS
Egersund Sildoljefabrikk AS
Karmsund Fiskemel AS
Total
-15,0 %
2010
Financial development Norwegian industry
Margins per sector - Total selection
18,0 %
14,0 %
12,0 %
10,0 %
8,0 %
6,0 %
4,0 %
2,0 %
Consumtion
Meal/Oil
0,0 %
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
EBITDA margins per sector - (BDO 07 excluded)
18,0 %
16,0 %
EBITDA margin
EBITDA margin
16,0 %
14,0 %
12,0 %
10,0 %
8,0 %
6,0 %
4,0 %
Consumtion
2,0 %
Meal/Oil ex. BDO 07
0,0 %
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Summary
• Volumes of the major pelagic species was up in 2011 compared to in 2010. Mainly caused by a 75% increase in
Anchovy catches in Peru. The volumes for the major species for direct human consumption dropped by approx.
6%, constituting approx. 500 000 tonnes.
• Compared to 2010, the price level trended up in 2011. Especially prices for the first hand trade was up.
Export/sales prices do not increased equivalent, probably resulting in pressure on the margins for the processing
industry.
• In Norway, the growth in firsthand prices have more than compensated for the reduced volumes for the fleet. This
situation is probably similar for other north European nations.
• Overcapacity in the processing industry in the Northern Atlantic. E.g. in Iceland, approx. 11 fishmeal plants still
exists, in Norway more nearly 40 processing plants for freezing of pelagic species was active in 2011.
• Increased focus on markets in Africa, especially for the North European countries.
• For 2012, the volumes of pelagic species are expected to remain more or less unchanged from 2011.
• The difficult macro economical situation will to a certain extent influence the markets and the industry for the
pelagic species. However, pelagic species will still be relatively affordable food, and the previous financial crisis
learned us that the consumers of the pelagic species was not the group that was severely affected.
Thank you very much!!!