Long Term Global Meat Market
Developments
7th January, 2011
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
Growing
the success
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY
2009
of Irish
food & horticulture
Outline
Recent trends in global meat market
Key market drivers
Potential developments to 2020
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Recent trends in Global Meat Market
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Per capita consumption continues to grow
Per Capita Meat Consumption (kg per head)
5m
tonnes
100
2000
2010
90
2.7m
tonnes
80
16m
tonnes
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
United
States
Brazil
European
Union-27
Saudi
Arabia
Mexico
Source: FAO/OECD
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Russia
China
Japan
Sub
Saharan
Africa
Proportion of meat traded gradually increasing
16%
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
11%
10%
10%
8%
9%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: FAO/OECD
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Beef
Poultry
Sheepmeat
Pigmeat
Middle East, Russia & Asia driving import demand
2010 versus 2000
‘000t
2500
2000
Sheepmeat
Pigmeat
Beef
Poultry
1500
1000
500
0
-500
MENA
+2.3mt
Russia
+0.8mt
EU
+0.4mt
China
+0.4mt
Source: FAO/OECD
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Jp. & Kr.
+0.6mt
N America
+0.4mt
America’s fuelling export growth
2010 vs. 2000
‘000t
6000
5000
4000
Sheepmeat
Pigmeat
3000
Beef
2000
Poultry
1000
0
-1000
Sth. America Nth. America
+5.6mt
+1.9mt
India
+0.4mt
Oceania
EU
+0.2mt
-0.8mt
Source: FAO/OECD
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
World meat prices increasing...........
$/tonne
4,000
3,500
Beef, Argentina, frozen cuts
3,000
2,500
Pork, USA, frozen
2,000
Chicken, Brazil, export value fob
1,500
1,000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: FAO
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2010 saw accelerated growth in world prices
%
50
48
45
40
35
2000 - 2010 Avg
30
2010
25
20
15
10
11
2
10
5
12
9
0
Beef, Argentina,
Frozen
Pork, USA, Frozen
Source: FAO
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Chicken, Brazil,
Frozen (fob)
Key Drivers of Change
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
Growing
the success
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY
2009
of Irish
food & horticulture
Billions
World Population 1950 - 2050
10
9
8
9 billion
7
8 billion
6
7 billion
5
6 billion
5 billion
4
4 billion
3
2
3 billion
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
By 2050
some
70%
will live
in theurban
areas. Almost three quarters
Source:
World Population
2008 revision
Growing
theUN
success
of IrishProspects;
food & horticulture
will be in Asia and Africa
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
The issue of Land.........................
Availability
Use
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Climate Change: impact of disruptive
weather and precipitation patterns
on long-term agricultural output
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
By
2025,
two-thirds
of
the
world
population
could
be
living
“The scarcity of fresh water for a growing global population will result in
under
water
stress
conditions.
water wars,
rising prices
and the
requirement to declare embedded water”
Some 70%
of the world’s water is used in agriculture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
70% of the world’s water is used in agriculture
Other issues........
US Hard Red Winter Wheat, $/tonne
500
Volatility
•
Feed costs and output prices
400
350
Trade Policy
Profitability
•
450
Farm & processing level
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Developments to 2020
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
Growing
the success
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY
2009
of Irish
food & horticulture
Growth in meat consumption to continue
M tonnes
350
314
276
300
250
227
200
150
Global consumption to grow by almost
40m tonnes by 2020
100
50
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Bord Bia based on FAO/GIRA
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Poultry the main beneficiary
Share of meat consumption growth, 2010 – 2020 (%)
Sheepmeat
3%
Beef
9%
Pigmeat
28%
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Poultry
60%
Asia to drive growth in demand
M tonnes
Growth in meat consumption, 2020 vs. 2010
(million tonnes)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
China
NAFTA
Brazil
MENA
Russia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU
JP & KR
Others
Meat Price Prospects
Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats
•
Some rise in ‘real terms’ anticipated
•
Especially red meat due limited supply growth
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Trends by meat
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
Growing
the success
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY
2009
of Irish
food & horticulture
Beef consumption to grow by 6% or 4 million tonnes
Growth in beef consumption by region, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
China
MENA
USA
Mexico
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
India
Japan
Others
Leading to growth in import demand
Growth in beef imports by region, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
-0.20
-0.25
USA
Russia
MENA
Japan
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
S Korea
Other F
East
Others
EU Commission beef projections, 2010 - 2020
Assuming unchanged
Trade Policy
EU Beef Imports, 2010 – 2020
(‘000t cwe)
700
600
Net production to fall by 7%
•
500
400
Fall of 7% in dairy cows
Consumption to drop by 3%
Imports to grow by 180,000t
300
200
100
0
Exports to fall by 60,000t
Source: EU Commission, December 2010
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Beef export growth to be driven by South America
Change in beef exports, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
Brazil
Argentina
Australia
USA
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Uruguay
Others
Pigmeat consumption to rise by 10% or 11m tonnes
Growth in pigmeat consumption by region, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
60% of growth
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
China
EU-27
USA
Russia
Phil.
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Brazil
Mexcio
JP. & KR.
However, growth in pigmeat trade more limited
Pigmeat imports by key country, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Overall, imports to rise by around
800,000 tonnes or 13%
0.2
0.0
Japan
USA
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Russia
China & Hong Kong
Export growth to be driven by North America
Pigmeat exports by key supplier, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
USA
EU
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
CAN
Brazil
China & Hong
Kong
55% of growth from US & Canada
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Poultry consumption to rise by a quarter
Growth in poultry consumption by region, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
China
MENA
USA
Oth. S
America
Brazil
EU
Others
Consumption growth expected in all regions,
strongest in China & Middle East
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growth in global poultry trade to continue
Poultry imports by key country, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
MENA
EU-27
Japan
China
Russia
Oth. Far East
Global import requirement to grow by 26%
or 2.6m tonnes
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Brazil & US to drive poultry export growth
Poultry exports by key supplier, 2020 Vs. 2010
(Million Tonnes)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Brazil
USA
Thailand
EU-27
Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study
China
Brazil and US account for 70% of trade
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Argentina
Global sheepmeat market
Sheepmeat exports by region, 2020 vs.
2010 (million tonnes)
Consumption to grow by 6%
•
China & Middle East
Production to rise by over 5%
•
2010
0.5
2020(f)
0.4
Non-traditional producers
Import growth in MENA & EU
Exports
•
•
0.5
NZ marginally lower
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Australia to grow by 12%
0.0
New Zealand
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Australia
Others
Summary
Global meat consumption to rise by 40m tonnes
•
•
Led by poultry & pigmeat
1/3 of growth to take place in China
Higher meat prices anticipated
•
Volatility in feed and output prices set to persist
Number of positive drivers
However, a number of key challenges
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Long Term Global Meat Market
Developments
7th January, 2011
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
Growing
the success
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY
2009
of Irish
food & horticulture