Financial Analysis
Net Present Value (10%)
Unleveraged IRR Before Taxes
Leveraged IRR Before Taxes
$
Current Market Value of the Site
Public Subsidies*
504,798,923
-8.9%
28%
$
$
200,267,279
98,732,550
* Model does not include subsidies because of their uncertainty, however we plan to ask CCDC to fund 50% of the development cost for structured parking
1. Summary Pro Forma
Team
2010-11
Phase I - Come
2012
Total Revenue
Development Costs
Phase 1 - Come
Phase 2 - Enjoy
Phase 3 - Grow
Net Operating Income
$603,374,800
($603,374,800)
Phase 2 - Connect
2014
2015
2013
$62,920,248
$128,172,338
$452,654,409
$366,393,319
($389,734,161)
($238,220,981)
2016
2017
2018
Phase 3 - Grow
2019
$172,345,176
$168,280,687 $119,487,721 $106,746,215 $120,349,806 $116,950,560
$141,672,553
$143,592,445
$30,672,623
$24,688,241
$32,251,939
$87,235,782
1515
2020
$121,572,090
$95,288,393
$11,457,822 $120,349,806 $116,950,560
$121,572,090
2021
$126,466,459
$126,466,459
$1,457,566,868
$39,354,305
Total Asset Value @ 10 Year Hold
Cost of Sale @ 2.7%
Total Development Costs
Plus Debt Proceeds / (Service)
Debt Repayment Upon Disposition
Net Cash Flow
$1,835,227,858
$304,417,353
($298,957,447)
$297,823,496
$298,280,730
$206,872,397
$141,137,991
$54,328,483
($91,910,665)
$60,059,749
$237,545,020
$165,826,232 $141,564,265
$37,075,242
$18,225,718
$48,533,064 $138,575,524
($59,351,939)
($59,351,939)
$57,598,620
$62,220,151
($750,272,634)
($750,272,634)
$794,406,388
2. Phased Development Plan
Units
Buildout by Development Units
Rental Housing
Market-rate
For-Sale Housing
Rental Housing
Affordable
F S l Housing
For-Sale
H
i
Office/Commercial
Retail
Hotel
Structured Parking
Surface Parking
Green Space (Parks)
Total Square Feet Built
Cumulative Buildout
2010-11
(units)
(units)
(units)
(units)
( it )
(s.f.)
(s.f.)
(s.f.)
(space)
(space)
(space)
(s.f.)
Total Buildout By Phase (RBA except for Green Space)
Units
Phase 1
Rental Housing (s.f.)
1,250,255
Market-rate
For-Sale Housing (s.f.)
614,161
Rental Housing (s.f.)
220,633
Affordable
For-Sale Housing (s.f.)
108,381
631,655
Office/Commercial (s.f.)
236,861
Retail (s.f.)
Hotel (s.f.)
Structured Parking (s.f.)
520,000
Green Space (Parks) (s.f.)
165,200
Total (s.f.)
3,747,147
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
953
347
143
52
287,055
107,642
1,824
664
274
100
743,124
236,861
2,548
927
382
139
997,003
343,258
2,939
1,069
441
160
997,003
359,868
2,939
1,069
441
160
1,388,140
359,868
2,999
1,091
450
164
1,651,571
367,868
2,999
1,091
450
164
1,651,571
367,868
2,999
1,091
450
164
1,651,571
367,868
2,999
1,091
450
164
1,651,571
367,868
993
993
1,713
2,073
2,433
2,939
1,069
441
160
1,436,426
367,868
240,907
2,793
2,793
2,793
2,793
2,793
89,600
2,371,978
254,800
4,287,491
495,397
6,125,497
788,994
6,931,967
1,120,291
7,540,804
1,495,288
8,105,622
1,901,785
8,436,951
1,901,785
8,436,951
1,901,785
8,436,951
1,901,785
8,436,951
Phase 2
764,292
375,442
134,875
66,254
215,797
123,007
540,000
128,397
2,348,064
Phase 3
41,029
20,155
7,240
3,557
556,383
8,000
240,907
360,000
112,900
1,350,171
Total
2,055,577
1,009,757
362,749
178,192
1,403,835
367,868
240,907
1,420,000
406,497
7,445,383
Phase 2
68,332,226
35,541,128
12,058,628
6,271,964
122,203,946
129,365,441
5,177,295
25,200,000
498,850
282,445,532
Phase 3
10,446,567
5,433,495
5,433,495
958,852
22,272,409
91,940,298
2,645,327
12,600,000
413,600
129,871,634
Total
523,374,046
272,218,619
95,950,109
48,038,580
939,581,353
522,849,091
108,685,705
97,755,000
2,235,734
1,671,106,883
Development $ Per Type
Market-rate
Affordable
Rental Housing
For-Sale Housing
Rental Housing
For-Sale Housing
Total Housing
Office/Commercial
Retail
Structured Parking
Green Space (Parks)
Total $
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Phase 1 ‐ $ Spent
Phase 1
444,595,252
231,243,996
78,457,986
40,807,764
795,104,998
301,543,352
100,863,084
59,955,000
1,323,284
1,258,789,717
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Phase 2 ‐ $ Spent
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Unit Costs
Average Development Costs
Rental Housing
For Sale Housing
Office / Commercial
Retail
Demolition Costs
Subterranean Parking
Green Roofing
Open Space
Land Basis
* Soft Costs equals 10% of Hard Costs
Hard Cost Before Inflation
$
216.42 ($ per S.F.)
$
229.15 ($ per S.F.)
$
293.86 ($ per S.F.)
$
242.45 ($ per S.F.)
$
1.75 ($ per S.F.)
$
67.50 ($ per S.F.)
$
11.07 ($ per S.F.)
$
5.50 ($ per S.F.)
$
152.13 ($ per S.F.)
Infrastructure & Green Technology Costs
Cost Per Solar Unit
General Infrastructure
Cost Per Linear Foot of New Road
Equity & Financing Assumptions
Equity Sources (total)
Land Basis
JV Equity Required
Financing Sources (total)
Conventional & Construction Loans
(I/O Construction @ 5.5%, 65% LTC, Perm: 65% LTV, 7%)
Total
Phase 3 ‐ $ Spent
$
$
16,000.00 ($ per S.F.)
2.54 ($ per S.F.)
($ per S.F.)
$
$
200,267,279
727,419,131
$
743,420,473
$ 1,671,106,883
Confluence Buildout
Green Space (Parks)
Market‐rate Rental Housing
Structured Parking
Total Dollars Spent
Hotel
Retail
Market‐rate For‐Sale Housing
Structured Parking
Green Space
Retail
Office / Commercial
Residential
Office/Commercial
Assumptions:
Cost Assumptions
Construction cost assumptions are based on Saylor Publications Inc. replacement and construction cost data
Rent & Cap Rate assumptions based on a mini-market analysis
RBA based on 85% of total buildout
Financing assumptions based on average commercial mortgage listings from various publications
Affordable housing was set at 15% of total housing units
Hotel development is modeled as being done on a fee development basis for an outside hotel developer
Affordable For‐
Sale Housing
Affordable Rental Housing