Information Technology
Stock Presentation
BUSFIN 824 – Spring 2011
Bernard Baah
Michael Bowen
Phuong Viet Bui
Simin Chen
Kyle Evans
Tyler Gilbert
Information Technology - Weighting
Current
Weights in
Info Tech
S&P 500
18.07%
SIM Portfolio
22.75%
Overweight
+4.68%
Decision from
Sector
Presentation
New Weights
in Info Tech
18.07%
Sell 100 bps
21.75%
+3.68%
Information Technology – SIM Stocks
Company
Current SIM Weight
Decision
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
4.67%
HOLD
Corning Inc. (GLW)
4.01%
SELL 50 BPS
Intel Corp. (INTC)
4.32%
SELL 50 BPS
Google Inc. (GOOG)
2.66%
HOLD
Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ)
3.90%
HOLD
MasterCard Inc. (MA)
3.19%
HOLD
Total:
22.75%
Corning (GLW) – Performance
Returns
Year To Date
0.83%
Quarter to Date
-5.57%
Month to Date
-6.97%
GLW - YTD Performance
$24
$23
$22
$21
$20
$19
$18
$17
12/31/2010
01/20/2011
02/09/2011
03/01/2011
03/21/2011
Closing Price
04/10/2011
04/30/2011
05/20/2011
Corning (GLW) – Key Figures
•
•
•
•
•
Market Cap: $30.58 billion
Current Price: $19.48
52 Week Range: $15.45 - $23.43
ROE: 17.28%
Current Weight in SIM Portfolio: 4.01%
Corning (GLW) – Segments
Segments
Sales
$ Million
Earnings
% Total
$ Million
Profit Margin
% Total
Display Tech
3,011
45.40%
2,990
96.86%
99.3%
Telecommunications
1,712
25.81%
97
3.14%
5.7%
Environmental
816
12.30%
42
1.36%
5.1%
Specialty
578
8.72%
(27)
-0.87%
-4.7%
Life Sciences
508
7.66%
60
1.94%
11.8%
Other
7
0.11%
(75)
-2.43%
-1071.4%
Total
6,632
100%
3,087
100%
Corning (GLW) – Business Drivers
• Television, computer, mobile device sales
– Occupies 60% of LCD glass market (GLG Research 9/25/2009)
– Increasing sales and uses of Gorilla Glass
• Up 165% year over year for Q1
• Moving from handhelds to TVs
– Now used in Sony Bravia TVs
• Handheld devices (Motorola, Samsung)
• DisplaySearch estimates a 13.2% increase in
global LCD TV sales in 2011, with an increase of
5.8% in North America.
Corning (GLW) – Recent Developments
• Sharp shuttered operations of a production
facility due to supply disruptions resulting from
the Japanese earthquake and tsunami
– Corning continues to produce without one of its largest
customers
• Corning corporate debt upgraded by Fitch
Ratings
– To A- from BBB+
– Cited strong growth expectations for TV, computers and cell
phones
• Particularly in China and other developing nations
Corning (GLW) - ROE
Return on Equity - 10 year
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
ROE
ROE Rel. to Sector
Corning (GLW)- Multiples Valuation
Relative to
Industry
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
3.00
0.25
0.70
0.89
P/Forward E
1.20
0.64
0.90
0.90
P/B
0.90
0.40
0.70
0.90
P/S
2.20
0.10
1.30
1.20
P/CF
1.40
0.60
0.90
0.90
Relative to S&P
500
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
6.30
0.35
1.10
0.69
P/Forward E
6.60
0.57
1.10
0.68
P/B
2.60
0.10
0.90
0.70
P/S
5.90
0.20
3.70
3.40
P/CF
3.90
0.10
1.30
0.80
Corning (GLW)– Multiples Valuation
Current
Target
Multiple
Target
per
Share
Target
Price
Weight
17.50
9.60
11.00
2.06
22.66
35%
0.20
4.70
4.50
4.70
4.43
20.84
10%
7.70
0.30
2.20
1.60
1.70
12.47
21.20
10%
P/EBITDA
85.50
3.96
11.21
7.10
8.00
2.81
22.48
35%
P/CF
45.10
1.10
13.40
7.70
8.50
2.59
22.02
10%
Absolute
Valuation
High
Low
Median
P/Forward
E
121.10
7.70
P/S
8.90
P/B
Weighted Average:
$22
Corning (GLW)– DCF
Terminal Growth rate
Discount rate
Implied equity value/share
Current price
Upside/(Downside) to DCF
3%
12%
25.00
19.48
33%
$
$
 Sensitivity Analysis
Implied equity
value/share
Terminal Discount Rate
$ 47.90
Terminal FCF
Growth
2.50%
2.75%
3.00%
3.25%
3.50%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
32.30
32.97
33.68
34.44
35.27
28.27
28.75
29.26
29.80
30.38
25.08
25.44
25.81
26.21
26.63
22.50
22.77
23.06
23.36
23.67
20.37
20.58
20.80
21.03
21.27
Corning (GLW) - Target Price
Target Price
Weight
Multiples Valuation
22
60%
DCF Valuation
25
40&
•
•
•
•
Weighted Average Target Price: $23
Current Price: $19.48
Upside: 18.1%
Recommendation: SELL – 50 bps
Corning (GLW) - Risks
• Tepid global economic recovery
– Depressed sales of TVs, Computers and handheld devices
– Lack of consumer confidence and spending
• Disruptions from Japanese earthquake and
tsunami
– Excess inventory from over production could squeeze profit
margins
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Source: Intel 2010 10-K
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Source: Intel 2010 10-K
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Current Price:
$22.77
Target Price:
$27.00
% Upside:
18.7%
52 Week Range:
17.60 – 23.96
Market Cap:
121.15B
ROE:
23.2%
Current SIM Weight: 4.32%
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Intel Corporation (INTC)
• Drivers:
• Multi-gate Transistor Manufacturing Technology;
• Potential growth in emerging markets;
• High demand from Businesses due to delayed PC refresh cycle.
• Risks :
• Weakening consumer PC market;
• Threat from mobile computing ( Competition from ARM);
• Japan earthquake ( 10% revenue).
• Additional Consideration: As 2010 was a record year with
exceptionally high revenue and profit, we adjusted the expected
growth rates lower.
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Absolute
Value
High
Low
Median
Current
Target
Multiple
Target
Denom.
Target
Price
Weight
P/Fwd E
67.50
9.40
19.90
10.00
11.98
1.97
$39.21
20%
P/S
8.30
1.80
3.90
2.70
2.94
8.71
$33.96
25%
P/B
6.50
1.80
3.40
2.60
2.76
8.96
$24.73
15%
26.98
5.38
10.21
5.82
6.70
4.79
$32.11
20%
25.50
6.60
12.00
7.50
8.40
1.47
$17.68
20%
$30.0
15%
DCF
$27.0
85%
Target Price
$27.45
P/EBITDA
P/CF
Weighted Average
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Relative to
Industry
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Fwd E
1.70
0.07
0.83
0.85
P/S
1.30
0.90
1.10
1.00
P/B
1.30
0.70
1.00
0.80
P/EBITDA
1.22
0.70
0.92
0.86
P/CF
1.40
0.50
0.90
0.90
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Fwd E
2.30
0.70
0.90
0.80
P/S
2.80
1.10
1.50
1.20
P/B
1.40
0.60
0.90
0.70
P/EBITDA
1.61
0.57
0.90
0.70
P/CF
1.50
0.50
0.90
0.70
Relative to
Sector
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Intel
Source: Intel 2010 10-K
Intel Corporation (INTC)
•
•
•
•
Current Price:
Target Price:
Upside %:
Recommendation:
– Sell 50 bps
$22.77
$27.00
18.7%
Summary
• Sell 50 BP of Corning
• Sell 50 BP of Intel
• 100 BP total Technology weight reduction
AAPL: Financial Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
Target Price: 450
Current Price 332
Q3 EPS Guidance: 5.03
Q3 Revenue Guidance: $23 billion
Q2 EPS: 6.40
Q2Revenue: $24.67 Billion
Valuation
Relative to Industry
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
7.7
1.1
1.8
1.1
P/Forward E
3.8
0.79
1.7
1.1
P/B
2.2
0.3
1.1
1.3
P/S
4.3
0.5
2.6
2.2
P/CF
74.1
0.6
2.8
1.3
Relative to S&P 500
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
8.6
1.0
2.2
1.1
P/Forward E
4.5
1.0
1.9
1.0
P/B
4.3
0.4
2.3
2.3
P/S
4.8
0.5
2.5
2.8
P/CF
92.4
0.7
3.2
1.6
Recomendation
• Decision  Hold
Company’s 3rd Qtr expected revenues and
EPS forecasts below current Qtr figures
Iphone 5 release delayed to late in the year
SIM portfolio is currently over-weighted in
AAPL
Google (GOOG) – Key Figures
•
•
•
•
•
•
Market Cap: $167.05 Billion
Current Price: $518.39
52 Week Range: 433.63 - 642.96
ROE: 19.16%
Current weight in SIM Portfolio: 2.66%
Beta: 1.17
Google (GOOG) – Multiples Valuation
Relative to
Industry
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
1.3
.93
1.1
.93
P/Forward E
1.9
.62
.98
.94
P/B
5.7
1.0
1.4
1.2
P/S
3.1
.6
1.7
1.3
P/CF
3.6
.9
1.4
1.0
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
6.4
1.2
2.0
1.2
P/Forward E
3.7
1.0
2.0
1.0
P/B
17.7
1.5
2.9
1.6
P/S
19.2
4.2
8.0
4.2
P/CF
15.1
1.5
2.7
1.5
Relative to S&P
500
Google (GOOG) – Multiples Valuation
Current
Target
Multiple
Target
per
Share
Target
Price
Weight
28.6
14.9
19.2
31.15
598.08
30%
4.6
11.5
5.4
6.0
110.63
663.78
10%
56.3
3.4
8.1
3.6
5.7
106.0
604.20
10%
P/EBITDA
108.32
12.07
28.48
12.07
13.0
44.67
580.71
40%
P/CF
167.7
12.7
30.5
14.8
17.0
37.0
629.00
10%
Absolute
Valuation
High
Low
Median
P/Forward
E
61.2
13.7
P/S
29.0
P/B
Weighted Average:
$601
Google (GOOG) - Target Price
Target Price
Weight
Multiples Valuation
601
25%
DCF Valuation
590
75%
•
•
•
•
Weighted Average Target Price: $593
Current Price: $524.03
Upside: 13.2%
Recommendation: HOLD
HPQ – Key Stats
•
•
•
•
Market Cap: $77.86 Billion
Price: 35.98
52-week range: 35.91 – 49.39
ROE: 25.70%
Return on Equity Relative to Sector
HP’s Business Structure
Segments
Sales
$ Million
Earnings
%
$ Million
Operating margin
%
Personal Systems Group
40,741
31.68%
2,032
13.00%
4.99%
Enterprise Storage and Server
18,651
14.50%
2,402
15.37%
12.88%
Imaging and Printing Group
25,764
20.04%
4,412
28.23%
17.12%
Services
34,935
27.17%
5,609
35.89%
16.06%
HP Software
3,586
2.79%
759
4.86%
21.17%
HP Financial Services
3,047
2.37%
281
1.80%
9.22%
Corporate Investment
1,863
1.45%
132
0.84%
7.09%
128,587
100%
15,627
100%
Total
Stock Valuation shows Undervaluation
Relative to
Industry
P/Trailing E
P/Forward E
P/B
P/S
P/CF
High
Low
Median
Current
1.10
1.20
0.70
0.90
1.20
0.54
0.57
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.79
0.74
0.50
0.60
0.80
0.58
0.66
0.50
0.40
0.50
Relative to S&P
500
P/Trailing E
P/Forward E
P/B
P/S
P/CF
High
Low
Median
Current
1.30
1.60
1.40
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.93
0.84
0.90
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.50
DCF Valuation
Terminal Growth rate
Discount rate
Implied equity value/share
Current price
Upside/(Downside) to DCF
2.50%
11%
$
47.90
$
36.13
32.60%
 Sensitivity Analysis
Implied equity
value/share
$ 47.90
1.5% $
2.0% $
Terminal FCF
2.5% $
Growth
3.0% $
3.5% $
10.0%
50.87 $
52.41 $
54.16 $
55.16 $
58.46 $
Terminal Discount Rate
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
48.04 $ 45.50 $ 43.22 $
49.35 $ 46.63 $ 44.20 $
50.83 $ 47.90 $ 45.28 $
52.21 $ 49.32 $ 46.50 $
54.43 $ 50.93 $ 47.86 $
12.0%
41.16
42.01
42.95
43.99
45.15
Peer Multiple Valuation
HPQ
Sales per
Segments
Segment
Enterprise Storage
& Servers
22,237
HP Services
34,935
Personal Systems
Group
40,741
Imaging and
Printing Group
25,764
HP Financial
Services
3,047
Corporate
Investments
1,863
TOTAL
128587
Target
P/S
Competitors P/S ratios
Target P/S multiple x
Accent
Lexma
Sales/Segm
Ratio ure
IBM rk
Canon Xerox DELL Multiple ent
Date of price
5/19/2011
Current Stock Price
35.98
# of diluted shares
2226
Target Price
53.93414196
% return to target
50%
2
1.6
0.5
0.7
0.4
1.3
0.6
1.5
1.4
33355.5
48909
0.5
20370.5
0.6
15458.4
0.4
1218.8
0.4
745.2
120057.4
Recommendation
•
Position in the SIM Portfolio
o Total cost: $1,025,542 (Avg: $47.76/ share)
o Market value: $780,776
o Loss: $244,776 (biggest loss in the SIM Portfolio)
•
•
Target Price: $47.90 (33% upside)
Recommendation: HOLD
MasterCard (MA) – Key Figures
•
•
•
•
•
•
Market Cap: $34.6 Billion
Current Price: $269
52 Week Range: 191.00 – 286.80
ROE: 43.26%
Current weight in SIM Portfolio: 3.19%
Beta: 0.91
MasterCard (MA) – Multiples Valuation
Relative to
Industry
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
2.5
1.0
1.4
1.1
P/Forward E
2.1
0.82
1.2
1.0
P/B
6.0
1.3
2.8
2.1
P/S
7.0
0.9
3.5
2.6
P/CF
4.6
1.4
1.8
1.5
High
Low
Median
Current
P/Trailing E
2.7
1.1
1.4
1.3
P/Forward E
2.2
0.96
1.3
1.1
P/B
7.5
1.4
3.3
3.0
P/S
7.3
1.0
4.7
4.9
P/CF
4.4
1.5
2.1
1.7
Relative to S&P
500
MasterCard (MA) – Multiples Valuation
Current
Target
Multiple
Target
per
Share
Target
Price
Weight
18.0
15.6
19
17.11
325.09
19%
1.5
5.3
6.3
5.5
49.68
273.24
24%
16.7
3.8
8.5
6.7
9
36.93
332.37
19%
P/EBITDA
51.8
7.65
13.08
11.78
14
22.51
315.14
19%
P/CF
48.1
13.7
19.7
17.3
20
15.18
303.6
19%
Absolute
Valuation
High
Low
Median
P/Forward
E
34.5
13.5
P/S
10.1
P/B
Weighted Average:
$308
MasterCard (MA) - Target Price
Target Price
Weight
Multiples Valuation
308
40%
DCF Valuation
328
60%
•
•
•
•
Weighted Average Target Price: $320
Current Price: $269
Upside: 19%
Recommendation: HOLD
Appendices
DCF Models
AAPL: DCF Model
Operating Margin
Interest and Other
Interest % of Sales
Taxes
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.0%
27.0%
26.0%
25.0%
24.0%
23.0%
(509)
(589)
(712)
(818)
(917)
(999)
(1,059)
(1,107)
(1,156)
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
7,356
Tax Rate
24.0%
Minority Interest
954
Interest % of Sales
0.9%
Net Income
22,329
% Grow th
1,590
% of Sales
Plus/(minus) Changes WC
% of Sales
1,104
0.9%
25,835
1,631
35,362
13.2%
1,875
1,719
0.9%
38,155
7.9%
2,100
13,233
24.0%
1,873
0.9%
40,007
4.9%
2,289
13,497
24.0%
1,986
0.9%
40,731
1.8%
2,427
13,551
24.0%
2,075
0.9%
40,812
0.2%
2,536
13,582
24.0%
2,168
0.9%
40,818
0.0%
2,650
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
(850)
(346)
(533)
(341)
(382)
(416)
(441)
(461)
(482)
216,268
199,877
416,145
7.08%
13.8
18.6
8.1
11.5
925
$
$
20.9%
0.9%
24.0%
1.1%
-0.3%
1,349
1.1%
25,488
16.9%
Shares Outstanding
31,231
1,534
12,598
1.1%
21,797
Current P/E
Projected P/E
Current EV/EBITDA
Projected EV/EBITDA
0.9%
24.0%
1.1%
% Grow th
NPV of Cash Flows
NPV of terminal value
Projected Equity Value
Free Cash Flow Yield
1,334
11,658
1.1%
1.2%
Free Cash Flow
24.0%
1.1%
1,272
Capex % of sales
1,349
10,290
1.5%
-0.8%
Subtract Cap Ex
Debt
Cash
Cash/share
24.0%
15.7%
Add Depreciation/Amort
Current Price
Implied equity value/share
Upside/(Downside) to DCF
8,511
333.00
450.01
35.1%
51,011
55.16
-0.4%
1,631
1.1%
30,698
20.4%
52%
48%
100%
11.9
16.1
7.1
10.1
9.9
13.3
5.9
8.3
-0.2%
1,875
1.1%
35,021
14.1%
-0.2%
2,100
1.1%
37,773
7.9%
-0.2%
2,289
1.1%
39,591
4.8%
-0.2%
2,427
1.1%
40,290
1.8%
-0.2%
2,536
1.1%
40,351
0.2%
-0.2%
2,650
1.1%
40,336
0.0%
Corning (GLW) DCF
Assumptions
Discount Rate
Terminal Growth
12%
3%
FY 2011E
7,493
FY 2012E
FY 2013E
FY 2014E
FY 2015E FY 2016E
FY 2017E
FY 2018E
FY 2019E
FY 2020E
FY 2021E
$
8,723 $ 10,565 $ 12,255 $ 13,726 $ 14,961 $
16,008 $
16,969 $
17,902 $ 18,797 $ 19,643
16.4%
21.1%
16.0%
12.0%
9.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
Revenue
% Growth
$
Operating Income
Margin %
$
984 $
13.1%
941 $
10.8%
1,047 $
9.9%
1,961 $
16.0%
2,169 $ 2,334 $
15.8%
15.6%
2,481 $
15.5%
2,579 $
15.2%
2,685 $
15.0%
2,763 $
14.7%
2,750
14.0%
Interest & Other
% of Sales
$
2,112 $
28.2%
2,453 $
28.1%
2,699 $
25.5%
2,941 $
24.0%
3,157 $ 3,291 $
23.0%
22.0%
3,362 $
21.0%
3,394 $
20.0%
3,401 $
19.0%
3,384 $
18.0%
3,438
17.5%
Income Before Taxes
Taxes
Tax Rate
$
$
3,096 $
124 $
4.0%
3,394 $
204 $
6.0%
3,746 $
262 $
7.0%
4,902 $
735 $
15.0%
5,326 $ 5,625 $
799 $
844 $
15.0%
15.0%
5,843 $
876 $
15.0%
5,973 $
896 $
15.0%
6,087 $
913 $
15.0%
6,147 $
922 $
15.0%
6,188
928
15.0%
Net Income
% Growth
$
2,972
$
3,191 $
7.4%
3,483 $
9.2%
4,167 $
19.6%
4,527 $ 4,782 $
8.6%
5.6%
4,967 $
3.9%
5,077 $
2.2%
5,174 $
1.9%
5,225 $
1.0%
5,259
0.7%
Add Depreciation
% of Sales
$
862 $
11.5%
959 $
12.2%
1,056 $
12.8%
1,593 $
13.0%
1,798 $ 1,975 $
13.1%
13.2%
2,129 $
13.3%
2,257 $
13.3%
2,381 $
13.3%
2,500 $
13.3%
2,613
13.3%
Δ Working Capital
% of Sales
$
(136) $
-1.8%
(190) $
-2.2%
(367) $
-3.5%
(306) $
-2.5%
(314) $
-2.1%
(336) $
-2.1%
(356) $
-2.1%
(376) $
-2.1%
(376) $
-2.0%
(393)
-2.0%
Capital Expenditures
% of Sales
$
1,124 $
15.0%
1,352 $
14.6%
1,690 $
14.2%
1,679 $
13.7%
1,867 $ 2,005 $
13.6%
13.4%
2,129 $
13.3%
2,257 $
13.3%
2,381 $
13.3%
2,500 $
13.3%
2,613
13.3%
Free Cash Flow
% Growth
$
2,574
2,609 $
1.3%
2,482 $
-4.8%
3,775 $
52.1%
4,156 $ 4,437 $
10.1%
6.8%
4,630 $
4.3%
4,721 $
2.0%
4,798 $
1.6%
4,849 $
1.1%
4,867
0.4%
$
(302) $
-2.2%
Terminal Value
Discounted Cash Flow
Discounted Terminal Value
Equity Value
Free Cash Flow Yeild
$
Amount
$
20,442
$
20,084
$
40,527
8.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current Price
Implied Price
Upside/Downside
Current P/E
Implied P/E
Current EV/EBITDA
Implied EV/EBITDA
$
$
% Total
50%
50%
100%
Debt
Cash
2,262
4,598
Free Cash Yield
Terminal P/E
Terminal EV/EBITDA
1,570
0.3
19.48
25.00
28%
10.3
13.6
15.3
20.0
$
$
9.6
12.7
14.9
19.4
8.8
11.6
13.4
17.5
55,695
8.7%
10.6
10.4
Int el Corp. (INT C)
A nal y s t : S i m i n (Cas s i e) Chen
T erm i nal Di s c ount Rat e =
12.0%
T erm i nal F CF Growt h =
3.00%
2010/ 5/ 24
Y ear
Rev enue
2011E
49,525
Operating Margin
Int eres t and Ot her
Interest % of Sales
T ax es
54,055
2013E
58,304
9.1%
% Growth
Operat i ng Inc om e
2012E
15,077
16,526
2014E
61,802
7.9%
18,532
6.0%
19,159
2015E
65,510
6.0%
20,963
2016E
68,786
5.0%
22,011
2017E
72,225
5.0%
23,112
2018E
75,836
5.0%
24,268
2019E
78,870
4.0%
26,027
2020E
82,025
4.0%
27,068
2021E
84,485
3.0%
27,880
30.4%
30.6%
31.8%
31.0%
32.0%
32.0%
32.0%
32.0%
33.0%
33.0%
33.0%
149
162
175
185
197
206
217
228
237
246
253
0.3%
4,416
0.3%
4,840
0.3%
5,425
0.3%
5,502
0.3%
6,022
0.3%
6,323
0.3%
6,640
0.3%
6,972
0.3%
7,479
0.3%
7,778
0.3%
8,012
Tax Rate
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
Inc om e(l os s es ) f rom E qui t y Inv es t m ent , pre-t ax
396
486
525
556
590
619
650
683
710
738
760
Income % of Sales
Net Inc om e
0.8%
11,207
% of Sales
P l us / (m i nus ) Changes WC
% of Sales
S ubt rac t Cap E x
Capex % of sales
F ree Cas h F l ow
7,429
NP V of t erm i nal v al ue
P roj ec t ed E qui t y V al ue
F ree Cas h F l ow Y i el d
Current P / E
Projected P/E
Current E V / E B IT DA
Projected EV/EBITDA
S hares Out s t andi ng
Im pl i ed equi t y v al ue/ s hare
Ups i de/ (Downs i de) t o DCF
Debt
Cas h
Cas h/ s hare
13,807
0.9%
14,027
11.9%
8,746
1.6%
9,270
0.9%
15,334
9.3%
9,827
0.9%
16,101
5.0%
10,318
0.9%
16,906
5.0%
10,834
0.9%
17,751
5.0%
11,375
0.9%
19,021
7.2%
11,830
0.9%
19,782
4.0%
12,304
0.9%
20,375
3.0%
12,673
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
(470)
(439)
(412)
(989)
(983)
(1,032)
(1,011)
(1,062)
(1,104)
(1,148)
(1,183)
-0.9%
9,905
20.0%
8,261
-0.8%
9,730
20.0%
10,274
24.4%
80,805
70,721
151,525
6.47%
-0.7%
6,996
18.0%
15,144
47.4%
-1.6%
10,506
17.0%
11,802
-22.1%
-1.5%
11,137
17.0%
13,041
10.5%
-1.5%
11,006
16.0%
14,381
10.3%
11.39
10.35
9.25
13.52
12.28
10.97
5.58
5.10
4.60
6.64
6.07
5.48
5606
$22.77
$27.03
18.71%
2,137
4,188
0.75
-1.4%
11,556
16.0%
15,172
5.5%
-1.4%
12,134
16.0%
15,931
5.0%
53%
47%
100%
-1.4%
12,619
16.0%
17,128
7.5%
-1.4%
12,304
15.0%
18,634
-1.4%
12,673
15.0%
19,193
8.8%
3.0%
Terminal Value
219,648
Free Cash Yield
8.74%
Terminal P/E
10.78
Terminal EV/EBITDA
5.37
Dis c ount Rate
Perpetual Growth Rate
Current P ri c e
8,108
0.9%
15.0%
% Growth
NP V of Cas h F l ows
12,335
10.1%
% Growth
A dd Deprec i at i on/ A m ort
0.9%
Pric e
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
$34.83
$37.65
$41.40
$46.65
$54.54
$67.67
$93.94
$30.62
$32.63
$35.22
$38.68
$43.52
$50.78
$62.88
$27.26
$28.75
$30.61
$33.00
$36.18
$40.65
$47.34
$24.54
$25.66
$27.03
$28.74
$30.95
$33.89
$38.00
$22.28
$23.14
$24.18
$25.44
$27.02
$29.06
$31.77
$20.38
$21.05
$21.85
$22.81
$23.98
$25.44
$27.32
$18.76
$19.29
$19.92
$20.66
$21.54
$22.62
$23.97
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