MATERIALS Presented By: Debra Lei Alex Douglas Mengshi Li Spring, 2012 Materials Stocks in SIM Portfolio Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) Purchase price: $64.73 Current price: $50.28 (as of May 25, 2012) Weight: 3.93% Recommendation from Sector presentation: Buy SIM 75 and make Materials sector total 4.68% of Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (CLF) Business Analysis The Company is a major global iron ore producer and a significant producer of highand low-volatile metallurgical coal. Company Profile Current Price: 12 Month Price Target: Market Capitalization Dividend Yield (%) Trailing P/E (ttm) Forward P/E EPS $50.28 $73.77 6.94B $0.03 4.42 4.51 11.92 (CLF) Business Analysis Value Drivers: Demand for global crude steel production increases around the world, especially in emerging economies, such as China. Economy of scale from continuing acquisitions and project development. Expected high inflation around the world. (CLF) Business Analysis Risks Global growth slows, even in emerging economies, such as China. Increase in energy costs. Stricter regulation regarding to mining. Real GDP growth (percent change from previous year) World Memo item: World (PPP weights) High income OECD Countries Euro Area Japan United States Non-OECD countries Developing countries East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Thailand Europe and Central Asia Russia Turkey Romania Latin America and Caribbean Brazil Mexico Argentina Memorandum items Developing countries excluding transition countries excluding China and India 2009 -2.3 -0.9 -3.7 -3.7 -4.2 -5.5 -3.5 -1.5 2.0 7.5 9.2 4.6 -2.3 -6.5 -7.8 -4.8 -7.1 -2.0 -0.2 -6.1 0.9 2010 4.1 5.0 3.0 2.8 1.7 4.5 3.0 7.2 7.3 9.7 10.4 6.1 7.8 5.2 4.0 8.9 -1.3 6.0 7.5 5.5 9.2 2011e 2.7 3.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 -0.9 1.7 4.5 6.0 8.2 9.1 6.4 2.0 5.3 4.1 8.2 2.2 4.2 2.9 4.0 7.5 2012f 2.5 3.4 1.4 1.3 -0.3 1.9 2.2 3.2 5.4 7.8 8.4 6.2 4.2 3.2 3.5 2.9 1.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 2013f 3.1 4.0 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 4.1 6.0 7.8 8.3 6.5 4.9 4.0 4.5 3.9 3.0 4.2 4.4 3.7 4.4 3.3 -1.7 7.8 5.5 6.3 4.4 5.7 3.8 6.2 4.5 CLF: Performance Data Source: Morningstar.com, May 26, 2012 CLF: Peer Comparison Profitability Liquidity CLF: Peer Comparison (Cont.) Operating Efficiency Leverage Dividend Growth CLF: Multiple Analysis Absolute Valuation High Low Median Current A. P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF B. 141.4 4.1 8.9 1670.1 44.8 C. 3.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.9 D. 9.4 1.3 2.7 6.4 9.0 E. 7.4 1.4 1.7 3.6 4.6 Relative to S&P 500 P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF My My Target E, Target S, B Multiple /Share F. G. 9.4 8.8 1.3 50.1 2 35 6.4 13.7 8.0 10.2 My Target Price (F x G) H. 82.3 65.1 70 87.9 81.6 High Low Median Current 4.0 10.4 3.7 3.3 4.0 0.24 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.70 0.60 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.43 0.56 0.8 1.1 0.5 Average price = $77.38 CLF: DCF Analysis Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) Analyst:Debra Lei Date:5/25/2012 Year 2012E Terminal Discount Rate = 12.0% Terminal FCF Growth = 3.5% 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue % Growth 7,058 8,013 13.5% 8,590 7.2% 9,191 7.0% 9,788 10,376 10,946 11,494 12,011 12,491 12,929 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% Operating Income Operating Margin 1,927 27.3% 2,291 28.6% 2,611 30.4% 2,390 26.0% 1,958 20.0% 1,556 15.0% 1,642 15.0% 1,724 15.0% 1,802 15.0% 1,874 15.0% 1,939 15.0% Interest and Other Interest % of Sales (282) -4.0% (321) -4.0% (344) -4.0% (368) -4.0% (392) -4.0% (415) -4.0% (438) -4.0% (460) -4.0% (480) -4.0% (500) -4.0% (517) -4.0% Taxes Tax Rate 411 25.0% 493 25.0% 567 25.0% 506 25.0% 392 25.0% 285 25.0% 301 25.0% 316 25.0% 330 25.0% 344 25.0% 356 25.0% 1,478 19.9% 1,700 15.0% 1,517 -10.8% 1,175 -22.5% 856 -27.1% 903 5.5% 948 5.0% 991 4.5% 1,031 4.0% 1,067 3.5% 635 9.0% (102) -1.5% 1,059 15.0% 721 9.0% (86) -1.1% 801 10.0% 773 9.0% (52) -0.6% 859 10.0% 827 9.0% (129) -1.4% 827 9.0% 881 9.0% (127) -1.3% 881 9.0% 623 6.0% (125) -1.2% 726 7.0% 657 6.0% (120) -1.1% 766 7.0% 690 6.0% (115) -1.0% 575 5.0% 360 3.0% (108) -0.9% 601 5.0% 375 3.0% (100) -0.8% 375 3.0% 388 3.0% (78) -0.6% 388 3.0% 891 1,370 53.7% 1,611 17.6% 1,433 -11.1% 1,092 -23.8% 708 -35.2% 754 6.5% 948 25.8% 764 -19.4% 966 26.3% 1,016 5.2% Terminal Value 12,373 Free Cash Yield 8.21% Terminal P/E 11.6 Net Income % Growth 1,233 Add Depreciation/Amort % of Sales Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow % Growth NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 6,418 62% 3,984 10,402 38% 100% 12.57% Current P/E Projected P/E 5.7 8.4 Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 5.5 6.8 Shares Outstanding 141 Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF $ $ 50.28 73.77 46.7% 4.8 7.0 4.7 5.8 4.2 6.1 4.2 5.1 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Terminal EV/EBITD A 2022E 8.3 Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Growth = Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF 12.0% 3.5% $ $ 50.28 73.77 46.7% CLF: Recent Price Performance $67.11, before earnings announcement. Sensitivity Analysis Where is $50.28? $ 73.77 2.0% 2.5% Terminal 3.0% Growth 3.5% Rate 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 10% 84.4 87.0 89.9 93.2 97.2 101.8 107.3 Terminal Discount Rates 11% 12% 13% 76.0 69.2 63.6 77.8 70.6 64.7 79.9 72.1 65.8 82.2 73.8 67.1 84.9 75.7 68.5 88.0 77.8 70.0 91.6 80.3 71.8 14% 59.0 59.8 60.6 61.6 62.7 63.8 65.1 15% 55.0 55.6 56.3 57.1 57.9 58.8 59.7 Albemarle Corporation (ALB) Overview Ticker ALB Current Stock Price 61.43 52 Week Range 38.0271.79 Market 5.48B Capitalizati on Shares 923,859 Outstandin g Beta 1.98 Dividend Yield 0.80(1.3%) Industry Chemicals Business Overview Albemarle is a company that develops, manufactures and markets complex chemicals and services in over 100 countries. Its products are highly engineered specialty chemicals for a wide range of markets including petroleum refining, consumer electronics, plastics, crop protection, construction, automotive, pharmaceuticals, food safety and custom chemistry services. Business Overview Business Segments Polymer Solutions Comprised of the flame retardants and stabilizers and curatives catalysts product areas Catalysts Comprised of the refinery catalysts and performance catalyst solutions product areas Fine Chemistry Comprised of performance chemicals and fine chemistry services and intermediates product areas Sales and Earnings Business Segment Polymer Solutions Catalysts Net Sales % of Net Sales Income % of Income $237,811,000 23.7% 38.9% Business Segment Polymer Solutions Catalysts $1,001,922,000 34.9% $1,116,863,000 $323,601,000 29.0% Fine Chemistry $750,220,000 26.2% Fine Chemistry $139,578,000 18.6% % of Net Sales by Segments % of Earnings by Segments 26.20% 34.90% Polymer Solutions 38.90% 18.60% Catalysts Fine Chemistry 29.00% 23.70% Polymer Solutions Catalysts Fine Chemistry Sales and Earnings Sales Polymer Solutions 2012Q1 Catalysts 293,522.00 1,116,900,000.00 890,000,000.00 808,100,000.00 923,800,000.00 894,200,000.00 Earnings Fine Chemistry Polymer Solutions 2012Q1 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 190,051.00 750,200,000.00 569,000,000.00 500,100,000.00 627,800,000.00 537,500,000.00 53,555.00 239,900,000.0 195,700,000.0 63,800,000.0 92,600,000.0 134,400,000.0 Catalysts 82,156.00 287,300,000.0 219,100,000.0 129,700,000.0 142,700,000.0 135,400,000.0 Fine Chemistry 38,552.00 157,900,000.0 79,500,000.0 52,600,000.0 99,900,000.0 95,900,000.0 2011 2010 2009 2008 228,131.00 1,001,900,000.00 903,700,000.00 697,200,000.00 915,500,000.00 904,500,000.00 Earnings Growth Sales Growth 30.00% 40.00% 25.00% 30.00% 20.00% Polymer Solutions 10.00% Catalysts Fine Chemistry 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% 2007 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Total 20.00% Polymer Solutions 15.00% Catalysts Fine Chemistry 10.00% Total 5.00% 0.00% 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Business Overview Risks Regulations on the industry Need for constant improvement of products Operate in multiple countries, different country has different policies and regulations Rising trend in the price of raw materials China’s GDP growing at a lower rate Value drivers Growth company Albemarle's Vision 2015 plan outlines the company's strategy to grow revenue to $5+ billion, with earnings potential in excess of $9 per share by 2015 Leading positions in the market Expansions in Asia (Mainly China) Terminal Discount Rate = Analyst:Mengshi Li Date:5/25/2012 Year Revenue 2012E 2013E 3,104,921 3,322,962 565,378 609,276 % Growth 3,506,947 7.0% Operating Income Operating Margin 18.2% Interest and Other (38,812) Interest % of Sales 124,270 Tax Rate 41,250 Net income attributable to noncontolling interests 23.6% 39,570 (25,350) 418,196.48 % of Sales % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow 48,908 (25,540) (26,740) 634,178 663,984 4.0% 5.7% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 110,322 113,976 129,371 139,987 155,448 171,974 189,421 212,693 237,536 253,396 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.9% (75,863) (49,197) (39,608) (49,900) (50,551) (53,180) (54,817) (55,248) (56,718) (58,147) (58,178) -2.4% -1.5% -1.1% -1.4% -1.3% -1.3% -1.3% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.1% 208,651 227,623 242,681 247,654 248,866 253,626 249,363 248,052 245,779 252,382 253,396 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 323,451 364,197 381,205 407,824 438,200 469,561 507,589 545,459 587,120 625,736 663,378 12.6% 4.7% 7.0% 7.4% 7.2% 8.1% 7.5% 7.6% 6.6% 6.0% Terminal Value 10,665,080 Free Cash Yield 6.22% Terminal P/E 15.4 42% 12.5 12.0 14.5 13.9 10.0 9.3 8.9 11.3 10.5 10.1 91,522 $ 61.43 $ 71.31 Upside/(Downside) to DCF 16.1% Debt 1,524,997 Cash 469,416 693,864 7.9% 15.6 Implied equity value/share (27,944) (24,370) 605,132 13.4 Current Price 56,079 (23,232) 5.75% Shares Outstanding 53,664 576,865 58% Projected EV/EBITDA 23.6% 51,255 (22,105) 100% Current EV/EBITDA -1.3% 205,644 23.6% 548,873 6,526,207 Projected P/E 23.6% (21,012) 3,756,076 Current P/E -1.3% 521,742 Projected Equity Value Debt/Assets 46,623 23.6% 18.1% (64,642) 196,788 (19,973) NPV of terminal value Working Capital % of Growth 23.6% 18.1% -1.3% 187,954 4.5% 936,014 (61,858) 495,953 2,770,131 Total Assets -1.3% 179,346 4.7% 18.1% (59,081) 2022E 5,171,348 895,707 (18,950) NPV of Cash Flows Cash/share 23.6% 44,361 18.1% -1.3% 170,968 4.8% 855,499 (56,375) 2021E 4,948,658 469,403 % Growth Free Cash Flow Yield 23.6% 42,168 18.1% -1.3% 162,672 4.9% 816,316 (53,742) 2020E 4,726,512 (21,880) 103,704 Plus/(minus) Changes WC 23.6% 40,084 18.1% -1.3% 154,631 5.1% 778,185 (51,134) 2019E 4,510,031 451,443 % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort 23.6% 5.2% 18.1% -1.3% 2018E 4,299,362 740,423 (48,607) 146,988 38,030 5.2% 18.1% -1.3% 4,090,735 703,824 (46,204) 139,105 2017E 5.4% 18.1% -1.3% 4.5% 2016E 3,888,531 669,034 (43,837) 133,986 23.6% Equity in net income of unconsolidated investments (net of tax) 5.5% 18.3% Terminal FCF Growth = 2015E 3,696,322 633,264 (41,537) -1.3% Taxes Net Income 2014E 11.0% 5.13 3,203,824 47.6% 25% Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF $61.43 $ 71.31 16.1% Terminal EV/EBITDA 9.9 Valuation Relative to Industry High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 1.2 0.44 0.83 0.63 - P/Forward E 1.0 0.38 0.81 0.67 - P/B 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 + P/S 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 + P/CF 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 - Relative to S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 1.3 1.65 1.1 1.0 - P/Forward E 1.2 0.68 0.97 0.96 - P/B 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.6 + P/S 2.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 + P/CF 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 + Valuation Absolute Valuation A. P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF High Low B. 20.1 2.7 4.4 16.65 14.9 Median C. 7.5 0.7 1.5 4.48 5.4 Current D. 15.3 1.4 2.4 8.18 9.6 #Your Target Multiple E. 12.8 2.0 3.4 8.27 10.7 F. 15.3 1.4 2.4 8.18 5.4 *Your Target E, S, B, etc/Share Your Target Price (F x G) G. 4.67 34.42 35.52 5.84 10.5 H. 71.45 48.19 85.25 47.77 56.7 Final Target Price: 0.1*71.45+0.1*48.19+0.3*85.25+0.1*56.7+0.4*71.31=71.73 Current Price: 61.43 Upside: 16.8% Recommendation: Buy Sensitivity Analysis 9% 9.50% 10% 10.50% 11% 11.50% 12% 12.50% 3% 85.88 78.86 72.86 67.67 63.13 59.14 55.6 52.44 3.50% 90.94 82.97 76.24 70.48 65.5 61.14 57.31 53.91 4% 97 87.82 80.18 73.72 68.19 63.41 59.23 55.55 4.50% 104.42 93.64 84.84 77.5 71.31 66 61.41 57.4 5% 113.69 100.76 90.42 81.98 74.94 68.99 63.9 59.49 5.50% 125.61 109.66 97.26 87.34 79.23 72.48 66.77 61.88 6% 141.5 121.09 105.79 93.9 84.39 76.61 70.12 64.64 Recommendation: Buy CCK – Crown Holdings, Inc. Company Overview – CCK Founded in 1892 William Painter, founder, created the “crown cork” Today, Crown operates 134 plants in 41 countries, specializing in the design and manufacture of steel and aluminum cans for consumer foods and beverages Truly a global company: revenue well diversified across the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region Key Business Drivers – CCK Operates in a oligarchic business environment Two key competitors: Ball Corp. & Rexam Plc. 60% of total worldwide sales supplied by these three Steel & Aluminum key inputs Combined equal 65% of CoGS in 2011 Steel price increased 20%, Aluminum 11% Expansion into Emerging Markets Latin America: specifically Brazil China & Asia main expansion targets Economic Threats – CCK Economic downturn in China Major area of growth has been China & Asia-Pacific If the massive growth in China were to slow significantly, could see a hit to the bottom line Euro Debt Crisis European sales accounted for more than 50% of total sales for 2011 Major economic disruptions could affect ability to operate efficiently & profitably Segment Trends - Sales Non-Reportable Segments = Asia-Pacific Region Increase from 14.8% to 16.0% over three years Developed regions becoming less important to sales 14.0% 16.2% 16.0% 15.8% 15.6% 15.4% 15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 14.6% 14.4% 14.2% 25.0% 12.0% 24.5% 10.0% 8.0% 24.0% 6.0% 23.5% 4.0% 23.0% 2.0% 22.5% 0.0% 22.0% North America Food European Food Non-Reportable Segments Peer Comparison Market Cap Operating Margin 7.0 11.0% 10.8% 10.6% 10.4% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.2% 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 CCK BLL REXMY.PK SLGN CCK Quarterly Rev. Growth 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% BLL REXMY.PK SLGN P/S (ttm) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 CCK BLL REXMY.PK SLGN CCK BLL REXMY.PK SLGN Financials – CCK Beta: 0.87 Market Cap: 5.12B Div Yield: 0.00% DCF – CCK Year 2012E 2013E Revenue 9,161 9,728 % Grow th 6.2% Gross Profit 1,505 Gross Margin 16.4% 1,614 2014E 10,352 6.4% 1,727 2015E 10,984 6.1% 1,816 2016E 11,621 5.8% 1,903 2017E 12,260 5.5% 1,990 2018E 12,897 5.2% 2,074 2019E 13,529 4.9% 2,155 2020E 14,152 4.6% 2,233 2021E 14,760 4.3% 2,307 2022E 15,351 4.0% 2,376 16.6% 16.7% 16.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.1% 15.9% 15.8% 15.6% 15.5% Net income attributable to noncontrolling (89) interests (97) (111) (121) (128) (135) (142) (149) (156) (162) (169) % of Sales -1.0% -1.0% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% Net Income 443 489 572 594 617 640 661 681 699 715 730 10.3% 17.0% 3.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.0% 323 390 390 428 468 510 553 598 644 682 12.7% 20.7% 0.0% 9.8% 9.4% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 7.6% 6.0% % Grow th Free Cash Flow 287 % Grow th NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 2,742 3,570 6,311 5.40% 43% 57% 100% Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 12.0 14.2 4.9 5.5 10.9 12.9 4.6 5.2 Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF $ $ 34.41 40.90 18.9% Terminal Value Free Cash Yield 9.3 11.0 4.3 4.8 10,135 6.73% Terminal P/E 13.9 Terminal EV/EBITDA 4.5 Sensitivity Analysis $ 40.90 3.25% 3.50% Terminal 3.75% Growth 4.00% Rate 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 10.25% 43.00 43.97 45.02 46.15 47.38 48.71 50.16 10.50% 41.40 42.29 43.24 44.26 45.37 46.57 47.88 Terminal Discount Rates 10.75% 11.00% 11.25% 39.91 38.51 37.21 40.72 39.26 37.89 41.59 40.05 38.62 42.52 40.90 39.40 43.53 41.82 40.23 44.61 42.80 41.13 45.79 43.87 42.09 11.50% 35.98 36.61 37.28 37.99 38.76 39.58 40.45 Upside ranges from 1.2% to 45.8% 11.75% 34.83 35.41 36.03 36.68 37.38 38.13 38.93 Relative Valuation – CCK Absolute Valuation P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF Low Median Current 36.2 0.8 43.0 11.80 11.7 8.5 0.1 0.5 0.86 0.8 14.0 0.4 10.0 4.82 7.3 11.9 0.6 NM 5.32 9.4 Target Multiple 12.5 0.5 NM 5.00 9 Target /Share 3.04 62.83 NM 7.949 3.649 Target Price 38.00 31.42 NM 39.75 32.84 Current multiples mixed compared to median High Targets trending towards their respective medians CCK has negative book equity Target prices between $31.42 and $39.75 Price Target – CCK Input P/Forward E P/S P/EBITDA P/CF DCF Total: Weight Value Added 16.67% 6.33 16.67% 5.24 16.67% 6.63 16.67% 5.47 33.33% 13.63 100% $ 37.30 Target of $37.30 gives 8.40% margin of safety Recommendation: Keep following? Recommendaion Other Companies Considered Commodity Firms Silver & Gold Companies Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW) Natural Airgas Resources Companies Inc. (ARG) Summary Materials Company (As of 5/25/12) Symbol Purchas e Price Current Price Target Price Upside Current Weight (bps) Recommendation Cliffs Natural Resources -Steel CLF $64.73 $50.28 $73.77 46.7% 393 Hold current weight: 393 bps Albermarle -Chemicals ALB N/A $61.43 $71.73 16.8% N/A Buy 75 bps Crown Holding -Containers & Packaging CCK N/A $34.41 $37.30 8.4% N/A Keep following next quarter THANK YOU Spring, 2012