Business Finance 4228/7225 Advanced Investment Analysis The Stock Market

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Business Finance 4228/7225

Advanced Investment Analysis

The Stock Market

Summer 2013 Sector Team

Neil Patel

Jeffrey Mulac

Srinath Potlapalli

Overview

IT Sector Weight SIM vs S&P 500

As of 6/30/2013

1.60% 2.10% 3.92% 0.08%

0.22%

14.43%

16.85%

SIM Weight

13.25%

7.57%

13.86%

12.14%

13.99%

3.30%

3.30%

2.80%

17.80%

10.20%

12.70%

0.00%

0.00%

12.20%

S&P 500 Weight

10.50%

10.50%

16.70%

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Information Technology

Materials

Telecommunication Services

Utilities

Cash

Dividend Receivables

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Information Technology

Materials

Telecommunication Services

Utilities

Cash

Dividend Receivables

Recap of the Recommendation

• Overweight IT Sector in SIM portfolio by 100-200 bps above the S&P 500 weightage.

• Increase IT Sector allocation by a total of 200-300 bps

• Why?

– IT Sector is underperforming the market by 9% YTD* (buying opportunities)

– Continued IT Sector growth in the future

– Improving economic conditions in the U.S.

*http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

Overweight:

– Application and Systems Software (big data software growing in demand)

– Hardware (mobile sales continue to grow)

– Internet Software and Services (cloud computing)

Underweight:

– PC semiconductors and equipment (decreasing demand)

– PC hardware (decreasing demand)

– IT consulting & services

Stock Analysis

Data as of 7/19/13

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Intel Inc

Company Overview:

Industry: Semiconductor

Ticker: INTC

Current Stock Price: $23.04

52-Week Range: $19.23-$26.90

Market Capitalization: $114.53B

Shares Outstanding: 4.97B

Beta: 0.99

Dividend Yield : 0.9(3.8%)

2012 Revenue:

2012 Earnings:

$53.34B

$11B

Business Analysis - Intel Inc

• Among stocks in the current SIM IT Portfolio Intel is the only company with major revenue/earning stream from declining PC industry

Key Business Drivers:

• Corporate and Government IT Spending. Intel is a highly cyclical stock.

• Global demand for chips and competition from foreign suppliers such as ARM.

• PC/Notebook Demand both in domestic and international markets.

• R&D and Innovation.

• Falling PC and chip prices coupled with R&D spending impact margins.

• Data Center growth coupled with the proliferation of cloud computing.

• Growth in mobile device,smartphone and tablet sectors.

Business Analysis – Intel Inc

Stock Performance:

Intel stock performed well during the past year due to growing business in Data Center Group and expansion in software service arena

• Intel’s earnings might decline to rapid fall in demand for PC’s in the global market.

Intel has been a late mover into mobile computing sector which is limiting its stock performance.

• With high capex budgets and deteriorating PC demand Intel’s stock price may decline in the near term.

For FY2013 Q2 :

• Intel reported 39cents a share vs Analyst consensus of 40 cents.

• Intel to cut down its capex and focus more on growing mobile device sector under the new management.

/ .

Recent earnings report: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505124_162-57594230/a-big-miss-for-intelearnings/

Financial Analysis

• Year

.

Revenue

% growth from prior year

Earnings Per Share

Current

Year

Current+1 estimate

53,341

-1%

53,583

0%

1.87

-16%

Current+2 estimate

55,880

4%

2.03

8%

Current

+3 estimate

57,886

4%

2.05

1%

Source: Baseline

• Revenue and earnings forecast for Intel are sluggish in the near term

• Intel is expected to grow in mobile and cloud computing with new technologies

% growth from prior year

2.24

-12%

Intel vs ARM – Financial Ratios (source: www.morningstar.com)

Financial Ratio 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Financial Ratio 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

(INTEL)

(ARM)

32.7

38.2

40.8

73.9

61.2

Payout Ratio % 40.8

32.7

31.3

72.7

59.5

Payout Ratio %

0.09

0.13

0.13

0.07

0.07

Free Cash Flow

Per Share

Capital

Spending($b)

Net Margin (%)

1.52

1.85

2.02

(11.0

2)

(10.7

6)

(5.207

)

1.18

1

(4.51

5)

(5.19

7)

20.63

23.97

26.28

12.44

14.08

Free Cash Flow

Per Share(GBP)

Capital

Spending(gbp mill)

Net Margin (%)

(26)

27.86

(13)

22.9

(7) (10) (14)

21.14

13.26

14.58

ROE (%) 22.66

27.15

25.16

10.82

12.93

ROE (%) 14.18

11.52

10.53

5.47

7.06

Relative to

S&P 500

Hig h

Valuation – Price Multiples Analysis

Current High Low Median Low Media n

Absolute

Valuation

Current Target

Multiple

Target E,

S, B, etc/Share

P/Trailing E 2.6

0.59

1.1

0.73

P/Forward E 2.9

0.69

1.1

0.83

A.

B.

P/Forward E 35.7

C.

8.4

17.1

D.

E.

12.5

17.1

F.

1.87

G.

P/B 1.9

0.9

1.2

0.9

P/S

P/CF

5.3

1.4

2.2

0.6

2.6

1.1

1.5

0.6

P/S 8.3

1.8

3.2

2.2

3.2

10.78

High Low Median Current Relative to

Industry

P/B

P/EBITDA

6.2

23.1

1.8

4.31

3.0

9.15

2.3

5.62

3.0

9.15

10.3

4.25

Target

Price (F x

G)

H.

31.97

34.49

30.9

38.93

P/Trailing E

P/Forward E

P/B

P/S

P/CF

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

.48

.07

0.7

0.9

0.6

.84

.84

1.0

1.1

0.9

.72

.81

0.9

0.9

0.7

P/CF 25.5

5.1

10.2

6.6

10.2

4.06

40.64

Valuation of price multiples indicate that Intel is valued below

S&P 500 and the Industry likely due to sluggish PC demand forecast.

Target Price of Intel based on median historic P/E multiple is

$31.97.

Sensitivity Analysis - Intel

Discount Rate = 11.5%

Reasons for the Assumption:

• Intel is a cyclical tech stock

Uncertainty in growth

• Decline in core PC business

FCF Growth Rate = 5%

Reasons for the Assumption:

Intel is leading in booming

Data Center business

• Intel has a good chance to

capture the mobile device

market

• Great corporate Governance

and brand Image

9.0%

Discount

Rate

9.5% 10% 10.5% 11% 11.5% 12.0%

2.5% $31.02

$28.65

$26.6

$24.82

$23.24

$21.85

$20.60

3.0% $32.63

$29.98

Growth

Rate

3.5% $34.54

$31.53

4.0% $36.83

$33.36

$27.71

$25.74

$24.03

$22.52

$21.18

$28.98

$26.81

$24.92

$23.27

$21.82

$30.47

$28.03

$25.94

$24.13

$22.25

4.5% $39.63

$35.56

$32.23

$29.46

$27.11

$25.11

$23.37

5.0% $43.13

$38.25

$34.34

$31.15

$28.49

$26.24

$24.31

5.5% $47.63

$41.61

$36.92

$33.17

$30.11

$27.55

$25.40

6.0% $53.64

$45.93

$40.14

$35.65

$32.05

$29.11

$26.66

INTEL(INTC)

Srinath Potlapalli

6/11/2013

Year

Revenue

% Growth

Operating Margin

Operating Margin

Gains(losses) on equity investments,net

% Growth

Interest and Other

Interest % of Sales

Taxes

Tax Rate

Net Income

% Growth

Add Depreciation/Amort

% of Sales

Plus/(minus) Changes WC

% of Sales

Subtract Cap Ex

Capex % of sales

Free Cash Flow

% Growth

NPV of Cash Flows

NPV of terminal value

Projected Equity Value

Free Cash Flow Yield

Current P/E

Projected P/E

Current EV/EBITDA

Projected EV/EBITDA

Shares Outstanding

Current Price

Implied equity value/share

Upside/(Downside) to DCF

Debt

Cash

Cash/share

Valuation – DCF Analysis

Terminal

Discount Rate = 11.5%

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Terminal FCF

Growth =

2016E

5.0%

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

53,341 53,623 54,914 57,342 60,782 64,429 68,295 72,051 76,014 80,194 84,204

0.5% 2.4% 4.4% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.0%

14,638 13,406 13,179 13,189 13,372 14,174 15,366 16,211 17,483 18,445 19,367

141.00

27.4% 25.0% 24.0% 23.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.5% 22.5% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0%

150.0 150.0 150.0 182.3 193.3 204.9 216.2 228.0 240.6 252.6

94

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

100 100 100 106 112 119 126 133 140 147

0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

3,868 3,551 3,492 3,494 3,552 3,765 4,079 4,304 4,639 4,895 5,139

26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%

11,005 10,105 9,938 9,945 10,109 10,715 11,611 12,249 13,204 13,931 14,627

7,522

14.1%

(754)

-8.2%

7,546

14.1%

729

-1.7%

10,764

19.6%

(116)

0.1%

11,027

19.2%

(218)

1.7%

11,852

19.5%

(365)

6.0%

12,564

19.5%

(387)

8.4%

13,317

19.5%

(410)

5.5%

14,410

20.0%

(432)

7.8%

15,203

20.0%

(456)

5.5%

16,039

20.0%

(481)

5.0%

16,841

20.0%

(505)

-1.4%

11,027

20.7%

6,746

58,575

1.4%

11,100

20.7%

7,280

7.9%

43%

-0.2%

11,367

20.7%

9,219

26.6%

-0.4%

11,870

20.7%

8,884

-3.6%

-0.6%

12,156

20.0%

9,440

6.3%

-0.6%

12,886

20.0%

10,006

6.0%

-0.6%

13,659

20.0%

10,860

8.5%

-0.6%

14,410

20.0%

11,817

8.8%

-0.6%

15,203

20.0%

12,748

7.9%

-0.6%

16,039

20.0%

13,449

5.5%

-0.6%

16,841

20.0%

14,122

5.0%

76,811

135,386

57%

100%

Terminal

Value 228,123

5.34%

Free Cash

Yield 6.19%

11.5

12.3

12.5 12.7

13.4 13.6

5.9

6.3

5,160.0

$ 24.46

$ 26.24

7.3%

13,448

8,478

1.64

6.3 5.5

6.7 5.9

Current Price: $24.46

Target Price: $26.24

Upside to DCF: 7.3%

Based on an upside price of 7.3%,decline in global PC demand and a slowdown in emerging markets Intel is SELL

Terminal P/E 15.6

Terminal

EV/EBITDA 6.4

Additions to SIM IT Portfolio

Evaluated following 3 stocks for adding to the

SIM portfolio

Yahoo(YHOO):

Impressive growth in stock value over the past year. Led by a new CEO.

Oracle(ORCL):

Stable large cap stock with little downside and projected to have a good run with cloud computing business.

Amazon(AMZN):

Expected earnings growth due to global expansion.

Additions to SIM IT Portfolio

We recommend

• Oracle’s core products are part of server infrastructure and its business growth is not impacted by decline in PC business.

• Growing revenue in cloud computing subscriptions.

• Oracle purchased Application software such as Peoplesoft, JD Edwards,

Seibel, Hyperion, Java, Sun etc; to strengthen its database business.

• Oracle has made several acquisitions that should help it position well in he growing cloud computing business.

• Oracle’s core strategy is to integrate Database, Hardware and Server platforms into one single engineered platform and deploy them across the data centers.

DCF Valuation - Oracle

ORACLE(ORCL)

Srinath Potlapalli

6/11/2013

Year

Revenue

% Growth

Operating Margin

Operating Margin

Gains(losses) on equity investments,net

% Growth

Interest and Other

Interest % of Sales

Taxes

Tax Rate

Net Income

% Growth

Add Depreciation/Amort

% of Sales

Plus/(minus) Changes WC

% of Sales

Subtract Cap Ex

Capex % of sales

Free Cash Flow

% Growth

NPV of Cash Flows

NPV of terminal value

Projected Equity Value

Free Cash Flow Yield

Current P/E

Projected P/E

Current EV/EBITDA

Projected EV/EBITDA

Shares Outstanding

Current Price

Implied equity value/share

Upside/(Downside) to DCF

Debt

Cash

Cash/share

88,347

101,593

189,940

8.37%

47%

53%

100%

Terminal Discount

Rate = 11.0%

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Terminal FCF

Growth =

2016E

4.3%

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

37,121 37,180 38,072 39,595 41,377 43,446 45,835 48,356 50,774 53,313 55,978

0.2% 2.4% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

13,705 14,682 15,035 15,636 16,340 17,157 18,100 19,096 20,056 21,059 22,111

36.9% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5% 39.5%

20.00

0.1%

20.00

0.1%

20.00

0.1%

20.00

0.1%

20.00

0.0%

20.00

0.0%

20.00

0.0%

20.00

0.0%

20.00

0.0%

20.00

0.0%

20.00

0.0%

(800) (800) (800) (800) (836) (878) (926) (977) (1,026) (1,077) (1,131)

-2.2% -2.2% -2.1% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0%

2,981 2,973 3,279 3,417 3,570 3,749 3,955 4,172 4,381 4,600 4,830

23.0% 21.4% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0%

9,954 10,929 10,976 11,439 11,953 12,550 13,240 13,967 14,668 15,401 16,170

2,800

7.5%

9.8%

2,800

7.5%

0.4%

2,800

7.4%

4.2%

2,800

7.1%

4.5%

2,800

6.8%

5.0%

2,800

6.4%

5.5%

2,800

6.1%

5.5%

5.8%

2,800

5.0%

2,800

5.5%

5.0%

2,800

5.3%

5.0%

2,800

5.0%

(380)

-1.0%

20

0.1%

12,354

(380)

-1.0%

20

0.1%

13,329

7.9%

(380)

-1.0%

30

0.1%

13,366

0.3%

(380)

-1.0%

30

0.1%

13,829

3.5%

(380)

-0.9%

40

0.1%

14,333

3.6%

(380)

-0.9%

40

0.1%

14,930

4.2%

(380)

-0.8%

50

0.1%

15,610

4.6%

(380)

-0.8%

50

0.1%

16,337

4.7%

(380)

-0.7%

50

0.1%

17,038

4.3%

(380)

-0.7%

60

0.1%

17,761

4.2%

(380)

-0.7%

60

0.1%

18,530

4.3%

Terminal Value

Free Cash Yield

288,465

6.42%

Terminal P/E 17.8 14.8 13.5 13.4

19.1 17.4 17.3

9.2 8.7 8.5

11.7 11.1 10.9

4,630.0

Terminal EV/EBITDA 11.7

$ 31.86

$ 41.02

28.8%

18,852

14,955

3.23

As of 7/21/13

Current Price: $31.86

Target Price: $41.02

Upside: 28.8%

Corning Inc.

Data as of July 19, 2013 NYSE: GLW

Industry: Electronic Components & Equipment

(specialty glass & ceramics)

Current Price: $15.03

52 wk range:

Market Cap:

Shares outstanding:

Beta:

Div (yield)

$10.62 - $16.43

22.3B

1.48B

1.76

0.40 (2.7%)

Revenue:

Earnings:

SIM weight (June 2013):

$8.012B

$1.7B

3.93%

Revenue Breakdown

2012 Revenue

Other

0.1%

Life Sciences

8.2%

Specialty Materials

16.8%

Environmental

Technologies

12.0%

Display Technologies

Telecommunications

26.6%

36.3%

Business Analysis

• Innovator of diverse products and uses – customers/partners include Apple,

Samsung, Sony, Dow Chemical, Verizon, AT&T

Business Drivers

• R&D and innovation

• Consumer spending: TVs, smartphones, tablets, cars

• Capital spending: auto & truck manufacturing, cable and internet lines

• Multi-use application of products

– Gorilla Glass in windshields

– Willow Glass as roofing shingles, iWatch?

– View Inc. collaboration

Risks

• Loss of a top ten customer (50% of total revenue in 2012)

• Struggling international economies

• Declining LCD TV prices

• Supplier/materials loss

Stock Performance

• Stock is up 25% since July 21, 2012; outperforming S&P by 50 bps YTD

• Revenues are at all time highs and earnings are beginning to come around – acquisitions have hindered income

• Declining LCD TV prices offset by improved fusion manufacturing process for glass (earnings up

4.2% in Q1 2013)

• Life Sciences division growing due to expansion into China and India

Valuation

Relative to

S&P 500

P/Trailing E

P/Forward E

P/B

P/S

P/CF

High

6.3

6.5

2.6

5.9

3.9

Low Median Current

0.41

0.57

0.4

1.7

0.6

0.89

0.99

0.9

3.7

1.2

0.73

0.75

0.4

1.9

0.7

Relative to

Industry

P/Trailing E

P/Forward E

P/B

P/S

P/CF

High

3.0

1.2

0.9

2.2

1.4

Low Median Current

0.31

0.64

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.82

0.89

0.7

1.3

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.7

1.0

0.8

Sensitivity Analysis

• Discount Rate: 12%

– Corning, like industry very cyclical

– Decline in LCD prices

– Innovative products, but risk with new product R&D paying off

• Growth Rate: 4.5%

– Huge potential with many products: Gorilla Glass, Willow Glass, Advanced

Dynamic Glass

– Solid management with focus on R&D

– Acquisitions of Life Sciences labs has increased growth potential in segment

Discounted Cash Flow

• Current Price: $15.03

• Target Price: $19.22

• Potential Upside: 27.2%

BUY

75 bps

Apple (AAPL) Valuation

Relative to

Industry

P/Trailing E

P/Forward E

P/B

P/S

P/CF

High

6.4

3.5

2.2

4.4

6.4

Low Median Current

1.1

0.92

0.4

0.8

1.1

1.6

1.6

1.2

2.6

2.4

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.7

1.2

Relative to

S&P 500

P/Trailing E

P/Forward E

P/B

P/S

P/CF

Absolute

Basis

P/Trailing E

P/Forward E

P/B

P/S

P/CF

High

161.5

76.2

11.9

8.3

82.6

Low

9.5

9.6

1.7

1.2

8.4

Median

29.8

25.7

5.5

4.0

29.8

Current

10.2

10.7

3.4

2.4

9.0

High

8.1

4.1

4.3

5.3

7.6

Low Median Current

0.62

0.67

0.6

0.8

0.8

1.8

1.7

2.4

3.1

3.0

0.63

0.7

1.4

1.6

0.9

AAPL considerations

Positives

• Top innovator for consumer electronics

• $60B share buyback plan to boost share price (by end of 2015)

• Products

– Per Tim Cook – new hardware, software and services to be unveiled in Fall 2013 and in 2014 (FY end 9/2013)

– Lower-end iPhone and iPad to steal market share from Samsung

– Larger screen iPhone and iPad to gain consumers

– iWatch

Negatives

• Can they produce profitable innovation in post-Jobs era – next big device?

• Down 19.6% YTD compared to S&P up 18.8%

• Google, Samsung consistently gaining ground

DCF - AAPL

Apple (AAPL)

Year

Revenue

% Grow th

Operating Income

Operating Margin

Interest Income

Interest Inc as % of sales

Other Income, net

Other Inc as % of sales

Interest

Interest % of Sales

Taxes

Tax Rate

Net Income

% Grow th

Add Depreciation/Amort

% of Sales

Plus/(minus) Changes WC

% of Sales

Subtract Cap Ex

Capex % of sales

Free Cash Flow

% Grow th

NPV of Cash Flows

NPV of terminal value

Projected Equity Value

Free Cash Flow Yield

Current P/E

Projected P/E

Current EV/EBITDA

Projected EV/EBITDA

Shares Outstanding

Current Price

Implied equity value/share

Upside/(Downside) to DCF

Debt

Cash

Cash/share

Terminal Discount Rate =

Terminal FCF Growth =

12.5%

5.0%

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E

170,803 186,229

9.0%

197,662

6.1%

212,487

7.5%

226,298

6.5%

241,008

6.5%

253,058

5.0%

265,711

5.0%

278,997

5.0%

292,946

5.0%

307,594

5.0%

56,400

33.0%

57,100

30.7%

62,000

31.4%

65,871

31.0%

70,152

31.0%

74,712

31.0%

75,917

30.0%

79,713

30.0%

83,699

30.0%

87,884

30.0%

92,278

30.0%

11

0.0%

17

0.0%

18

0.0%

425

0.2%

453

0.2%

482

0.2%

506

0.2%

531

0.2%

558

0.2%

586

0.2%

615

0.2%

550

0.3%

562

0.3%

575

0.3%

6,800

3.2%

7,242

3.2%

7,712

3.2%

8,098

3.2%

8,503

3.2%

9,486

3.4%

9,960

3.4%

10,458

3.4%

(161) (188)

-0.1% -0.1%

(198)

-0.1%

(212)

-0.1%

(226)

-0.1%

(241)

-0.1%

(253)

-0.1%

(266)

-0.1%

(279) (293)

-0.1% -0.1%

(308)

-0.1%

(158) (143)

-6.9% -6.0%

(148)

-6.0%

(4,373)

-6.0%

(4,657)

-6.0%

(4,960)

-6.0%

(5,056)

-6.0%

(5,309)

-6.0%

(5,608)

-6.0%

(5,888)

-6.0%

(6,183)

-6.0%

40,993 43,764

6.8%

47,637

8.8%

49,297

3.5%

53,859

9.3%

57,842

7.4%

60,987

5.4%

63,771

4.6%

66,959

5.0%

70,307

5.0%

73,822

5.0%

4,500

2.6%

5,587

3.0%

5,930

3.0%

6,375

3.0%

6,789

3.0%

7,230

3.0%

7,592

3.0%

7,971

3.0%

8,370

3.0%

8,788

3.0%

9,228

3.0%

0.0%

10,000

5.9%

0.0%

10,988

5.9%

0.0%

9,685

4.9%

-1.0%

9,562

4.5%

-1.0%

11,541

5.1%

35,493

277,320

278,483

555,804

8.91%

38,363

8.1%

43,881

14.4%

46,110

5.1%

49,107

6.5%

50%

50%

100%

-1.0%

11,809

4.9%

-1.0%

13,412

5.3%

53,263

8.5%

55,167

3.6%

-1.0%

15,411

5.8%

56,331

2.1%

-1.0%

16,740

6.0%

58,589

4.0%

-1.0%

17,577

6.0%

61,519

5.0%

-1.0%

18,456

6.0%

64,595

5.0%

Terminal Value 904,325

Free Cash Yield 7.14%

Terminal P/E 12.3

Terminal EV/EBITDA 8.9

9.7

13.6

6.5

9.1

9.1

12.7

6.3

8.8

8.4

11.7

5.8

8.2

938.7

$ 424.19

$ 592.13

39.6%

3,382

4,988

5.31

4.5%

4.75%

5%

5.25%

5.5%

12.0

610.82

622.23

634.45

647.58

661.72

12.25

590.92

601.38

612.56

624.54

637.41

Discount Rate = 12.5%

Growth Rate = 5%

Current Price:

Target Price:

Potential Upside:

SIM Weight (June 2013):

12.5

572.26

581.88

592.13

603.09

614.84

HOLD

12.75

554.74

563.58

573.02

583.07

593.81

$424.19

$592.13

39.6%

4.6%

13.0

538.25

546.42

555.09

564.33

574.18

Qualcomm, Inc.

Company Overview (as of 7/23/2013):

Ticker:

Industry:

Current Price:

Communication Equipment

52-Week Price Range:

Market Cap:

QCOM

$62.30

$56.30-$68.50

$107.6B

1.17 Beta:

Dividend (Yield):

FY 2012 Revenue:

FY 2012 Earnings:

$1.40 (2.3%)

$19.121B

$6.109B

Investment Thesis

Catalysts:

• Qualcomm chips are used in a majority of smartphones, with enormous growth potential in Asia.

The number of 3G/4G connections is expected to reach 4B by 2016, up from 1.9B currently.

• Qualcomm carries no long-term debt on its balance sheet.

Qualcomm recently increased its cash dividend and share repurchase program.

• The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by almost 20% YTD, signaling undervaluation.

Risks:

The smartphone market is becoming saturated in developed countries, particularly the U.S.

• Qualcomm is solely dependent on global growth in mobile sales.

• Competition in the industry will continue to intensify, driving ASP’s lower over time.

• As the world transitions from 3G to 4G/LTE over the longterm, Qualcomm’s royalty revenue per device will decrease.

Financial Analysis

Key Statistics

Market Capitalization:

Revenue (mrq):

Revenue Growth (YoY):

Current Ratio:

Net Cash:

% LT Debt/Total Capital:

Operting Margin:

ROE:

PEG Ratio (5 yr expected):

Qualcomm

Texas

Instruments Broadcom NVIDIA

$106.9 billion $42.0 billion $19.9 billion $8.5 billion

$6.1 billion $2.9 billion $2.0 billion $955.0 million

24% -8% 10% -9%

3.4

2.6

2.3

5.0

$12.4 billion $(221) million $981 million $3.7 billion

N/A

30.4%

20.7%

0.75

27.6%

20.9%

16.8%

2.88

14.8%

10.9%

22.4%

0.80

• Qualcomm has an advantage over its competitors in nearly every category

• Current and PEG ratios

0.4%

13.9%

15.1%

1.67

DCF Analysis

Recommendation:

• Buy 75bps

• Increase current holding to

4.62%

Current P/E

Projected P/E

Current EV/EBITDA

Projected EV/EBITDA

Shares outstanding

Current price

Implied equity value/share

Upside/(downside) to DCF

15.67

19.03

8.22

10.57

1,763

$ 62.30

$ 75.65

21.4%

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

Growth

Rate

4.0%

Discount Rate

10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50% 12.00%

$ 80.87

$ 74.48

$ 69.01

$ 64.27

$ 60.13

4.5% $ 85.46

5.0%

5.5%

$

$

90.96

97.69

6.0% $ 106.10

$ 78.21

$ 82.61

$ 87.90

$ 94.36

$

$ 75.65

$ 79.88

$

72.08

84.96

$

$

66.82

$ 69.77

$ 73.21

77.27

$ 62.28

$ 64.73

$ 67.56

$ 70.86

Discount Rate = 11%

• Qualcomm is a cyclical company

• Dependence on global economy (China)

Terminal Growth Rate = 5%

• Qualcomm is leader in cellular baseband processor market

• Mobile sales will continue to grow

Google, Inc.

Company Overview (as of 7/23/2013):

Ticker:

Industry: Internet Software & Services

Current Price:

52-Week Price Range:

Market Cap:

GOOG

$903.76

$604.34-$928.00

$301.1B

1.15 Beta:

Dividend (Yield):

FY 2012 Revenue:

FY 2012 Earnings:

N/A (N/A)

$50.175B

$10.737B

DCF Analysis

Recommendation:

• Hold

• Current holding is 4.45%

• As price appreciates, holding will reach SIM max of 5%

Current P/E

Projected P/E

Current EV/EBITDA

Projected EV/EBITDA

Shares outstanding

Current price

Implied equity value/share

Upside/(downside) to DCF

20.77

23.19

14.35

16.02

333

$ 904.13

$ 1,009.39

11.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

10.50%

4.5% $ 1,081.72

Growth

Rate

5.0% $ 1,147.55

5.5% $ 1,226.56

6.0% $ 1,323.12

6.5% $ 1,443.82

11.00%

$ 991.30

Discount Rate

11.50%

$ 913.99

12.00%

$ 847.17

$ 1,044.79

$ 1,108.00

$ 1,183.86

$

$

$

958.02

1,009.39

1,070.10

$

$

$

883.83

926.12

975.46

$ 1,276.58

$ 1,142.96

$ 1,033.78

12.50%

$ 788.86

$ 819.68

$ 854.89

$ 895.52

$ 942.92

Discount Rate = 11.5%

• Majority of revenue is derived from online advertising

• Google receives lower advertising revenue on mobile devices

Terminal Growth Rate = 5.5%

• Google is the leader in innovation (20% time)

• Google will continue to improve the ways in which people access information

Recommendation

SIM IT Portfolio Recommendations

Company Industry % of SIM Assets Decision to

Hold/Sell/Buy

Apple Inc

Google Inc

Hardware/Electronic

Equipment

4.6%

Internet Software & Services 4.45%

Intel Inc Semiconductor

QualComm Inc CommunicationEquipment

Corning Inc Diversified Electronics

Oracle Corp

N/A

3.87%

3.93%

System Software/ Application

Software

N/A

Hold

Hold

Sell

Buy 75 bps

Buy 75 bps

Buy 150 bps

Questions?

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