The Significance of a
Changing Tundra
Robert D. Hollister
Outline
Why Study the Arctic?
Melting Snow & Ice
Changes on Land
Politics of Climate Change
Why Study The Arctic?
Lat. 62.50N
24 hr Day
24 hr Night
Why Study The Arctic?
• Less complex
“simple food web”
fewer species
fewer interactions
Why Study The Arctic?
• Less complex
• Expected to change greatly
due to warming
90N
Predicted ANNUAL Temperature Increase in 2100
my research
60
30
0
30
60
90S
180
120W
-1
0
60W
1
2
0
3
4
60E
5
6
120E
8
10
180
12
oC
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Why Study The Arctic?
• Less complex
• Expected to change greatly
due to warming
• The “canary in the coal mine”
I’m dying,
Run for your
life!!!
Melting Snow & Ice
Its gettin hot!
The Arctic
The singing canary
Earlier Snowmelt
% change
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
Changing Sea Ice Coverage in
September (satellite images)
1979
2003
Summer minimum Arctic Sea Ice
8.9% loss per decade
United Nations Environment Programme (2007) Global Environment Outlook GEO-4 Report
1979
2003
Global Glacier Change
Mass Change
Effect on Sea Level
Dyurgerov & Meier, 2005
Sea Level Equivalent of Ice Sheets
Glaciers/IceCaps
Greenland
East
West
Antarctica
0
20
40
Meters of Sea Level
60
80
Glacial Melt in Greenland
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Projected Sea Level Rise
Rahmstorf 2006 Science 315:368-370
Land lost by 1m rise in Sea Level
Source: CReSIS and NASA
Impact of 1-meter sea level rise
Anthoff et al 2006
Which do you expect to melt faster?
Thick glacier
Thin glacier
Antarctica & Greenland
Source: J.Zwally
Source: W. Krabill
Antarctica & Greenland
Source: J.Zwally
Source: W. Krabill
The deepest outlet glaciers exiting into the ocean are responding most.
How Glaciers Work
Glacier
Moraine
How Glaciers Work
Glacier
Moraine
How Glaciers Work
Glacier
Moraine
How Glaciers Work
Glacier
Moraine
How Glaciers Work
Glacier
Moraine
How Glaciers Work
Glacier
Moraine
How Glaciers Work
Glacier
Moraine
Deep Outlet Glaciers
cold fresh
warm salty
Glacier
Moraine
Deep Outlet Glaciers
esh
r
f
cold
Glacier
warm salty
Moraine
Rapid Melting
Rapid Retreat
5 ye
ars
e
y
60
5
ars
ars
e
y
0
4
ars
e
0y
Jacobshavns Isbrae
Greenland
• Jacobshavns Isbrae occupies
subglacial channel
• Central Greenland is below
sea level
Russel Huff, Univ. of
Colorado
Antarctica
West
Ant.
East
Ant.
Nearly all of West Antarctica ice sheet and
much of East Antarctica ice sheet rests on
bed below sea level
Projected Sea Level Rise
Rahmstorf 2006 Science 315:368-370
The Global Role of Snow
NASA animation showing positive feedback
As the snow melts more solar radiation is absorbed and more snow melts
Changes on Land
Permafrost –the frozen ground
Distribution of Permafrost
Distribution of Permafrost
Projected loss of 60-90% by 2100
Drunken Forest
Damaged Buildings
Anisimov & Reneva (2006) Ambio:35:169-175
Loss of Lakes and Ponds In Alaska
Copper River Basin 1985
Copper River Basin 1995
Lake Disappearance in Russia
Smith et al. (2005) Science 308:1429
Carbon Release
Seasonal Active Layer
Carbon Store
C.E. Tweedie
Carbon Release
Seasonal Active Layer
Carbon Store
Vulnerable:
350-900 Gigatonnes
Current atmosphere:
750 Gigatonnes
C.E. Tweedie
Carbon Release
Seasonal Active Layer
Carbon Store
Vulnerable:
350-900 Gigatonnes
Current atmosphere:
750 Gigatonnes
1% loss would equal current rate of emissions
C.E. Tweedie
In saturated soils CH4 is generally more
important than CO2 Flux
C.E. Tweedie
Methane tends to be released in pulses
Burning a methane bubble
Vegetation Change
Tundra
Current biomes
?
Climate
Warming
Future biomes
Distribution of the major terrestrial biomes
Campbell Biology 4th Edition
Mean Annual Temperature (C°)
Location of principal biomes in climate space
Mean Annual Precipitation (cm)
high
Temperature gradients
rock, snow, ice
tundra
low
Altitude
coniferous forest
deciduous forest
tropical forest
equatorial
Latitude
polar
Townsend Harper Begon; Essentials of Ecology
high
Temperature gradients
rock, snow, ice
low
Altitude
tundra
Adiabatic lapse rate
1oC ~ 100 m
coniferous forest
deciduous forest
1oC ~ 150 km
tropical forest
equatorial
Latitude
polar
Townsend Harper Begon; Essentials of Ecology
Current
Projected
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion
Arctic Report Card 2007
Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion
Arctic Report Card 2007
Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion
Arctic Report Card 2007
My Research
Key
Control
Warmed
forb
lichen
shrub
short grass
moss
tall grass
Hollister 2003. PhD Thesis
• Increase in vegetation height
• Loss of lichens and mosses
• Increase in shrubs and grasses
Influence of vegetation
Increased absorbed radiation
Denser
Plant
Layer
deeper thaw
shallower thaw
It is estimated that shrub and tree
expansion may magnify regional
warming by a factor of 2-7
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
Summary of
Major Changes in the Arctic
•
•
•
•
Melting snow and ice
Melting permafrost
Release of carbon
Denser vegetation (toward shrubs/trees)
– increased solar absorption
Its gettin hot!
The Arctic
The singing canary
Summary of
Major Changes in the Arctic
•
•
•
•
Melting snow and ice
Melting permafrost
as much as
Release of carbon Potentially
Fossil Fuel Burning
Denser vegetation (toward shrubs/trees)
– increased solar absorption
2-7 X regional warming
Its gettin hot!
The Arctic
The singing canary
Politics of Climate Change
Bush
Clinton
Bush
Temperature Trends
Precipitation Trends
Comparing 1980-1999 to Projections of 2080-2099
Annual
Winter
Summer
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
Projected Change
No behavior change
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 oC
0
1.8
3.6
5.4
7.2
9
10.8
12.6 oF
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
Behavior change
Al Gore
Understanding the issue
Katrina
Why we should care
Its gettin hot!
The Arctic
The singing canary
Important Point
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Stern Report 2006
Stern Report published in 2006
Commissioned by the British Government
Using the results from formal economic models, the Review
estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of
climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of
global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of
risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of
damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.
In contrast, the costs of action – reducing greenhouse gas
emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change –
can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.
Questions….
C.E. Tweedie
Further Information:
The GVSU Arctic Ecology Program
http://faculty.gvsu.edu/hollistr/
Arctic Report Card
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
IPCC 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
http://www.acia.uaf.edu/
Articles in the Journal Nature
The new face of the Arctic Nature 8 March 2007 466:133-135
A world melting from the top down Nature 12 April 2007 466:718-721