gvs ranna msuossarnT ow nuc0zwzncs
1w
flee
N. 3*1
SO.. '64
Uhit. of MR*eWI
R1pW2ISD
M3
o1n
ktsbme 1
bpeflnt
Aeines
@f
lnt
0
.
0
9.
AIItr0
(MMom of
ar
.
er
astneer.u
.
.
Cbairea,
. . . .i.
. .p.;
.
.
ausr 1641
r
7
/
Aaptetbg
.
-
we4ie
hat
.
..
.
.-
Omnt,%. aen4mt. 50hoo
THE LINELR PWICABILIT OF PCIPItATION
by
Thome M. Noel
0*ait. of Ktsenri a. 5. '54
Stattet to the keparht
of Meteerflow a 16 Jaary IMi
it partial tivtfmat of the requteesato for the Megpr.
et meste
et W""ne
the problm of the short-tea settetablity of pw'iptatia
has restee na~n' unse
to taetipatom by 4'sestnl mthes
for was a tm awe
n baeea to nteorsegoste. the retal
prpes oels I to sika a &post
stdy of this probia otag a
tAunt preflettam nsha beet wpa staistins of pretitattas
Its. Sty. the 4nts n eawy fow th tetowasmtifa of sink stat.
tUSe we*e tleaet by te alt Of a bsatetally ena ww
r
withe *e l. roteset % the preaptttta belag a Mastre of
ito tautty.
It it ftos thet (1) the liner pretteabl1fty Of
pweotgtatle is relativly Wteotin to rasnablo vartaton
sa
. spail telIty oft the ata, howeer the spatial stat of
the dats vw be a ertheal pasnater; (2) tWe Rfl-llSfr behavtr
s etee sats gemP fret - 4t3a up to
itaga east
of ps
100 gtl. ft as ot awlt"&
to iapeat for the short tem
pwodlttatity; (3) te spaew reslat" etm with o a Coronet ts
ade W$11 tafesee ts ern ateat the l t of pretttabllttv;
at (4) the etIty of iam
poelettao bnse #e With tm
eapest et sot is a s"sitai, as er boss.e of the preen.e of
th e stowms trout Slob
tiffeat stees o preelpitatiag clsetsi
the 404t Vw", obtated.
thesis Swperwoort Amos M.Austin
Titie: Aeesiate Protester of oteworleg
Sthask Dr. Aars f1etaer fR his advies anM Opas
trmt aWe net a
Jams
I Omak hi as nett as Froetwf er
. AUti for their @ritli.et f %Wwritten wed.
I a intbted to Mr. R. (. M1ler of he Travelers
ZResetrch Center for the computer program and to the Staff
of the Cawutatton Center
t
assacbunett
Techsology for operatlng the progrm.
Institute of
*AL
it,.
10%.
y.
0 0'IIII"I
71Mnsagott
SSbV
ES flfh30fl0
01 r
0Mlw
PtI03
1
-
KV*WIZ3 LrnkS
K1 AND
X Of M0M
13
?as mE Unx
A. SptMa dontty Of hft"
eat of bats
S. Sat tf
;
it.ispg
To
V.
13
iS
1
asssstst
IaS uStfl e01
S8dhf7flOASG
It SR0*153OTANPW
~
WWWOY0 AND 900 TIME
T3. n 10054 07tsB
WS 3rMMe
a15 ftUs
P1ntatsilty IS the Nss
A.
of pree ti tIm
S. Irotttsbiilty as a f
0. hither esstAltas
P. RANr sat eritlte
fttn, of
ussuiser
t1ersag
s. mtesmiegtna bestsn
0. Wh satr. ot the pwntptatim
D. Zatorgvetatto of pntltst ity -o a
fa tets ofgitaIm
VtI,
t of the
. w~edmar at ine time lag ezportasato
. a aemt"We aethe of es--urtag
.
prettoalitty
0 URE
OWOLmfSts ASP smnsatu
nAsan
1002LM 310L103A56
27
37
As
3
o is
A.
S. the tatnesttn
19
It
of t- emi
37
40
4$
46
50
5$
53
t6
0
i
1.
xnw000nm4
mas leets te a ieret ofr
etedy at the
at tea pne-
ttetinbility at peIttatit beset wge a lie..e wchene. the
preocptatie pett asa
psegm at the plaeent
t Its abeso
a.
phee-.
te
temms
sin
eittias lateater (PU1) at a nether
turtag atems esertag is bthm the plater ast
eyetem ta
en
ameas
The
bet set tastltag theistpaatwas*en.
ltssr pretietita sbe
laIot
wopartkt hae isa ecstiett@
etas methat, Who tanestigae
othe rasrb M
hiA
the "0e ft a waltiple roess-
h SO initite t by
el act lather (1).
the ownf1 Psrpese of this sts4 IS to ake a Laeie of
Mtber
the problie at short ten pretitabtlity at prnitttie
peWpo!e, the sts
qnslIty
at
to petrtly Liretat
a feast blest
to sative
iasar tensest,
thea to aa the boot pesblo
ws.
a ISer
tent
ting
pretitia
this
(1) the
sehe,
(2)
when the insn pOetietie iatwsti* tS eantt wit reepeot
to the statts fn
teth the presoyitattoa tatessity (waist
oIufl) is being pretieted, (3) hoe ash pretetive arastia
to aaessn,
a t (4) UWet a teooloaiaal fteters catrel the
ansere to (1), (2), at
(a).
the wek epert earlise () Mat with liner pretietabilIty as
a testis of pntotia tim at atfront statto
grit Of tint
asing Its
ers sat tint ata tesit
eSay
seeras.
Se
la a
(1) and (2) above won
vesalts inostat
that preoata-
buitty of th sar elgpal d
of tat to be"s
larg as
e I
It, last adt 9
see the spatial est
to
of datat
, et that pettabits
Uat
aos
t
be a
t be tepnt
alY at amat
ALttis fm sOft ti.s
the Punt e
et restiwo t4 epatial deltq
.mto ae
hss,
a pre-
t tries oter tms
iA
ot. The"s te tatieatise oft be wotre
ien" mOoNly s a
1eall ep of !afosstees at the wse
of se "aa ate time %ag, rospeetIly.
Qao et te tee mnaseeS of thi pnemst invetirtie 1o
to dates
. to at stet
Iamer
at,
ahe
*ta a.
oeasMt gn
pr.etetbI4tgt be twpnnt it tie t
io iselabe these
he nao"
ae
m
te other perpos
pzeatitas of fa
ssete,
a.
whetter
lags were
anestatise,
dat
. het nue at in the aem*ier
to paeNt a
osett e I et
ot the * s te ueteerelgial
lseor pretiotios aperluats
flters *Mob
toese emi t.o
of
a a short tea bsis ill fes the
foresotiag pretpitti
wt
tesot.
aifiod uwteenelegie.l later.
iatUe to be the telnt soe to the whole proles
tnefl
sat
a
ptriarly osmetSnea wth
. t
e is
(3) sat (4) abewe.
wenreftI' thetee
Ut.
951 RSM
he g*ta
ie
nntnt by te A/014 Vs
let6
at
U, I. I. Ip am ts pin.O dtettuatests of siga tatesity
merst see tea tastes tithma a etnle sitky .tle. t
weat by sy. ties a 0S a.
he ltasttee
wnt,
eseE a a aet. Vt
*a t
ntjst asnh
et Ail biabaotag (aetbtag - 0, aitsaWe - 1,
sum,
t etate
so". At Os
is) 1at
Isanth e phetepmaphle nonsesattes
lhe Eatatee
ploant bef
a esmpl. ef sacate legt" (406 stles),
ftstism et ane
bebs that toh
se pteta
) the weavEs
(i.e. ash s&tle sqe
to the ta tatvt*awi letes.e wee
it
To
stesee.
ad aesipet to 6te
41e14e 4. squsne tate quafles
ee seat.,
by the &mge
ala ethe
stes
t, Uek Us ten
I4 to aUsem
an
the
s.
ta ote e ser sheean beesae bsw
all
pn~ese godepetgnie ef the W seepsethransot mthe die
tins (essluttag the begintag ea eatag s1 the tatlvttnl floes).
I to
setesft Is hae goee nepag baneas thervstee
pestetita aefe
watt be qpenttsg aetly ea sres eat shuAt
the fay tag the nuls
'e4
ie that petpttia is a
hWdls be the type thet pren
latisate wead be a U ntine
se sst.
Whero re the stes
sea larg are$
t prespitatte.
SqVall itses tat 0o4 teas an set of tis type at ws set
t repeoseoe
linn
is St miles.
ht* the flU wes
ga$b mre
3It Ietget (tetmete
the we*Ias g $14
belg seat tree the file, the
1w. otatO *sh that the wind at th P00 silltar
(1w pnOseen lel lew ee.s the pit twe top to btaa.
The 4tm
s
M e stnn so tis
* wn witd M
Ofthe O
pre Fiere pgatalmii stse tset the #rift of the 0a
patters
sso# the ptsi sly peetialy besoeo th astag wnd sp
woe net tome into
SseSt.
It
to a
0tnma
oea
pul ot a weetbor v*w that *4e sell pxstptatio
to
es with a atesotis meat speo
At
the reeiw
that "enem"
areas tat
the $00 ab
th ts t heagheof etheta soee
of the wo rd hat a
atbe
the rUate es1*
the IPX 'sops.
a eartata .rttial
is the aeesawy
to priarly
of the pSeble rather tm
thus all
ated
the
the fila by sye, it
wet ho .snl'te that the petity ot the daa
pepste ot this 1
bels.a,
otrssgth Mat u
Oessetwg this liattatiaa sagith
$t we the bet aaalabl
ns
iattet Ernsteseg
obVious subjeotivity taweint Isattg
ts
to set too soe.
ernte.
Ijato te
an attaept at the diagnost
to aske te boot peoiblo protonti,
the Oe qelity a be Ueftitea t for a firt try.
a the
U?22.il 1EBM00Ofl ORE
Eu13334BR
L
8Eh60
at a statin I. at i
e gstp" ttesty
t+vtt to
tutasittn A at
expnntea a itner eambtaetta Re the etn
statisM i *ft th. pt at tim t
tin .tn
.
to the pretteita
fat
~
L~
7MxiA
Lt
te the pgeiotn est MAh ao oP I pnstetr Xi
, the
(t)
epOsar
*n1oftatodst A,,4 k; wNae the petits
sa*e
E(ti is the poe.
xt bg the fhM Re leeS equWes.
oaw
to
eastia
at a 10 naostes, the pne ttt
4V *M'ss. It amut be sotted that this aquatta aytoe
osly eta nth u stes %atie betwes She peioStat eat al
to
that Is, there
to te peodttias tie
he pedietero to 04
t0ag a otagjie ti lag.
For two tie logs
equatim
wtial * oastata otser SmaiaM eof te test
Apitt hen the 0mtet e least squares
matnt with eoot to
/Z
fa= =0
A
tie
-
veuiret that E?
h4
mtueWafst%. FreA
eStttiea
n the
the tepatest
variase ot Wh prttea
fester
A
nef ls of a
fata (te
be
that Is, the epnpfla
a
beasI + I equatiee In I + 1 nheas
To a
A
eat be sAtttift th br ever EL rtee
as aemr eerhe
whisk mse the
(1)
a
t
esgreseta are
the oeithae
of
.h
'tiralar preoietis 0es
toa stein) , te
to te vase
rieau ot he
of the pretitat
i
10.
nqatet, this nfl.
Ihe
belag sfad
the rsemfts
is
ware
eine et the seietis i th e wrisease f the pe~tns
et the ense
mises ihe vasn
the hi1asr the T the better the peettAs
Ir t" e..e It 1*
qtW ns.
fttthe
w=d
sei Is tin pn4 etts sigaetis "n say few
etattes tinm gt (In).
tie
ely,
of pnetoe
tha the sune
int, 'twig to see
tfInltie. whisk an pesilte base
s at
AMonr sa the
of
the eempgta-
the flta eshpis is fist.., if all 130 flat tes wre us
as pre.
tueaet 6te semple, the pedlesa oeestev ao
tabh wait in siset worthles an teget
retashipe (bets
ee
(3!),4
thepean
*ata tue to em0
as the pretteters) whisk
inserpsetst tte t.
no*w, it the ante
to
of petiatrs
are arbtusrily limtd
a astat seer, eeo sgfist pymistiwe taformati.
in ahont
Ml1er
of
auets
men
might
borroSet a spresha' appite4 4 Rsert
sseek
Ostor altSd seeetag
reensma w h pemmt the seeses
erutag
or stepwie
of IsOU4e pie
gietere.
Maghiy, thie is how it nes.
tiaseffiflet bs
ef the psats
Valoe
pietUetess
The osre
te peeteatan
(
'
is amputet.
detbthe tint pretetor X
of the eremla
t+vt
a
seek
lbs. highest
. Vhe least squares
i.
to SOputtt tI toa4.b
isles of ek
-
Obtaiaet eat thim
Let the.
btagie Ieast oqiares #stfttia.
rothee0 'a
Sa
they
sen repes
5e al adntn of
.- atth
.
the resiueas
'4 X &
Ti
laiant of x.,
th e
pretteters (sow
pwatietsMd
snoet pweiteter %
*
time baset en
tbIs preses is settwist sul
Xarltnrly
fist or (2)
5$
I
tet
qper
whi
Y.a,
tests
limit at the aber
thishaer
to reashet,
fay be shosn
Shiet
a
-ot of Ite
stlistteal stot rtaaoe iosa. lager satis.
pretteer hebse for
pe4ste*
ither (1)
sourt
the
by all the protitotrs chosen
warise aenlatt
r tspetet.
The least
As eseh gretttr is thsen,
fosrth, eat etc., protiter.
pests liac
\ st the
15t repestet to p15k the tiri,
Xg . this Whole
so4
mea pre-
The ighet nrsattoa
oeoptet,
stare.n spnittietio a spsrte, esly tit
retwetia is
= o
. W-e t the
betwens te
ae
pnediatn neiha
sweerMe dip
the reetetns,
st the neaig
bees tenget from seek X
4teter, the enn.etauei
be .411egthe
tfomatten esataet is X,~ has
.. nas tnt al1 the. preettw
the weflnsa) ane
% io
ba*um
pxettte)(..
ettpt. of all the nsstag
of
sroo s
first Stes the prs*e., the deAils of this proeadure are
tOataio tt Is pes
sr.
is
Miller
ebotyig his
impot
b
Miler eag by aeaud
hIM sse* to prd
seoig
(1.
pra
to realise that tis
sot of prettoAers, ter ash
Short (a,
a).
W with a computer porom
A nole of enison
it 1
eeos not p1k the rptis
beiag istlvitally
the best at soee
18.
staget ta.
pnhene Iea asune thet my ill resin te
be"t Is Iter
eeneart.
the Aaptatie of the earlier work Usl1AM all the 10
stati.s
-pfhIls welters sMt o
aeea a petitts4
30, 60, 120, O0, 1
qwattiea se
(Pig.
1).
OW *&n0
fm asag them were
wr prtltea
etag a stag).
tie Of 10,
We
lag, thes
eoatat
(a) me wtemte iu variee seUUtaed With ee
tioi
(b) t.
4t-
ptloistr ptae
(ietribztioa of retatta In vartane over the
(a) the petttnr;
(4) the ts
*ad saes earrelatinu fiel.;
(0) the paeeltiec operator A A
.6
tit
1M.
Z UM&TIW ASD I3 0 MQZ MU
QY 0-
IT
A. SnatMeLAM $
A.a
A. a esait at te arfter eemptate,
betweea afl the pesette pintesf etfta
pntetewr) wee
statin
tal
TIME SA0
(0
e ata
the eenlAttefl
(a pnetatat
ftstis ot te sn0fatte
aa
ot te
he .emuiatts for all pus,
is spe atW tis.
whose relative postie (wthat reet to* eogaptfal litsam)
0at elative ti
ftlfhnmse new. the sea, wrene
Wsag althe an.
" vale
avoepg Vain
teteet.
fiets of na
aeroitttese were snustramtet, ee t
Aette
tS.
tinlt
to
We val
eniatins tw all
the a
valn ti Oh bef out ar
tun to
all pa
en MA pro
if the enter 'wo of eb
airs of flattens with a
the sun anerresta. $0e
age.. npanta. t
so"
otleS
ipre I shows the filtd few te
AS at eS.npl.
30 stt preietia tie.
tdas
oa ti
eater is the "an ownml
oat etastas *t ee yeative patties ae s
the enater ba 1. toibs pefliealar baa beie iestet at, with
the stables eeweepeaftaa to the eater bee buag the pretiots
ia hw pair. Bulb esre be to s lle
te vemsit ot aneg
over me atjeat
erdew to Otti a Isseter
thee. soeseita
aes
aas asidet
S$1 ti. 1ewt1ps
Is
fiIt.
telols have a goPt dol of simer sye
ustr aheat the enter. gho *ild for o30 ames show the
spetry (flg, 8).
The sealer symmetry previos an argasmet
for there etaotg a rebmeAy ot tat
atiaa wistha the pt
14.
besaso what it mnse to hat so vattr In whieh disoetion po leek
free Oq
stt i
as god as
(protiletd) there to a prettter whio
say $Mr at the s n ttuase
from the
to agnllg
ostiotant.
fhwnfesn, the iupteatis to that, ifthne desity of statioens t
the grIt seon to be aweestably n*taet, Me pwetitabiity weal4
aot be affto tot bes.
then
'euiS
stil
snstatics
&*$ "t"ne tree the pntectand to proViSO )"st as *geoe
gies.
a beflt5. 2f the fie
gagges.
abot
the ato
luwee net eirnlarly epaetris
oer at meot, sensnl
this Weit iay that -
tnttueosone poteenS bgr the petditors.
14 Ore neoet
by wy
itIOen1 i
anh a this as
sy listy be sat
to test few the esttene
tafomistic
5
rint
been aQs wth the stac
wet are Me 0
bee.
eempetattiS with th origiaL
e (eig. 1).
The
tmea.e
pro.
of
ita ft hew wnk
probia here.
ta-
EsW eeP*-
4coity $e.AseL to ese -aIt
th OritAnl de"ity by Usng ealy sO of te
Whe statie
swe of the 'gote
of tis iotleate
isatat bses the
taice be"
if the statiten.e
in the preses.
within the g tt sat to *tba
forstias
si
at a
erigial 130 statits.
as prntieteats for the eaflter
static
dnsity ant origual gilL
ape s a priori paes
for deottig
hew much
of a rsdettei to try, se sAne it ho to be a stab In the dark the
desie
se to who a itly bld nea. Forty of he 60 statics
won sheen fl pretteta4
piettti
(.ig, 1); the empatatifos wore sat for
time ot 10, 30, at&60 sabtes.
tatise wii be
Reratter, those nmoeg
eferred to s these with the tseSde station dnsa
(abbreviated RD).
r
it.
I
anf
. tSiai tettwft dtat
b
~taS
SVe Qagestet~ Oattat t *46 weauset
ie
to emeween te
IwS tinet tio One peem-att as a eSS
tasesin.
amntsas.
n las tene
Eigjn S9 shan atistratnteefew the a.pttis ew .ssl.
Its patten ta
ter allthe emfl peflfli
state 46 .m
the -" few s wmnse
Ue*
aeas emhe grit Astetesta
te
wit
"
nsestte wa nft.
theeselq
preiottem
te
int* et ide
Aht all the
ait #te peettwo amwstin whie at best Jet
the tatnsis tet ORn be s
Se 1tagr tt
unms
(priestaSMA)
grit
It ts
Zf, at a eertata peStea
O 2"sg oaA
to eaetat all the
edistiwimnsafsattsa fer ace Stitese isa n''rti
00t ofthe gpit, thse statiene welt eSter
tese is wewsette s
wise~e tt
t0 AeterteMsMe all the etees
tag petetisa tin, thia tlA
at thsle S tar
patten
Whet we
t. eno e te Oa eeSer
f ewtatta
eanetlne et ite tesatis.
iS, e #t vee
espatse
eAnn t ahstteO estaats ote
ah eI to laws eSeh
pnteatis Sahntiesst
pitt
itne -as.,A th. gri.
t4 a it$ n&
any nat Ue
in,
*Wcet few ees betag a
the grit n
sts
a ot
fl
th"e emietesy ot pattes t a
tafesatie
te Ettitiams
at
tistia
sA dtitiSMa
welt4 be spe1apee
we
wead setter An to tierse.
les e weidt ease the ratton
ie
the est Oter tI0,
te be tfforet free te
is.
3at a sisgle netuet ion is iartnoo pattern is eensistost
for all the pretiatie. ttnse
t be etirey1 lae.
the gri
eNOgh at last fOr pretict io tins up to ant ItobatIng 240
If it Is MMg
Minutes,
larrs engh
preiatiw iatemias psevitet
W
but near the eatoige benstarins
statine A et
grit
saftes?
te
is it pessible tat the
the station wita the grit
redaut with respect to te
If this it true, the 4ste of the
ld be rowed at the res itag statics w0alt etain
the sa pretietsbility.
The oanssttny of the redntioa in variatss patterns rgwA
in an adtitiosal Me
Outsit the grit.
for thoe bet"n a
Lot ve aeswe
costribater to the protEstie
not large esa
to
of
that atwetia 1. the prie
tafratica
it the grid were
itud, the sOeeswary atwectiwe laforMntioa
or each statcts at a ertatn predtitt times we
the rewtion ia
teart )$
intematit
oul expet
arifnse patters to show A emiat.e prejaOle
Valus at the stations along the leeart bondary
of the. gri sad lw slies along the wiiseard bvualry, This
sort of patter was 4ot obsestet at any of the predition tins.
In ft,
#s1g the ti s
Iangest unbena
51d6 of the grid whre then
timasios of the grit alsl
a4d thus the best place to
esur, the Vis
we
ieen
is the
the 700 ub wind
this patters if it wer. to
wifeamy low at all the pretete
Tb. pattern for 30 states to
(14g. 1tW). The implietis
tinoe
repreetative of this matermity
is t at the gri ja large e&O
to
17,
barq.
mosett sa the wiadaret
Thertoe,
AdeMmtill, bet the awmnte
etsq ahtwtt
CywptattttO
asoiqptta
(that
e the
1r&diewe
Satumen.
it.
4th the stee of the ntigiml grit
yf snd
Ues 3
luve alp 60 of the 120 stoatim .
s to
o
mees *at* &
so *t *4atto so. St tegr s
tiea) so -ee eSpetaAWfl
Shows tis noten* eS
a 30
les.
own enlas* to a b Ulty 1at4.a
atmoAtia So te
"ea"N
sets eatefd*
4euds wih nespeet to ateweits tatninttea.
tam. grid awe
rnaeb
or etatt1
a uen
atemst
noesaq a4vnetin
tadlute the
s" as
The Sepeatse
git.
for
teat. protlta tsen; 30 of te 40 stattas were oMoae
as pgniitSa.
Of ShOes 30 ptvfh4ae49d 10 WOe nt
in the *emepbl.
60 prtoteate 0a
origifl Statta
weAs14 hae be at.
estuflcam is flrt-
spn
to 30 slate wul
I& sdtila
on-
metiwot 'tn
te
ter at toast 10'"S
esapatafes
a* Pattaen$ fer eits,
60 sagete
to
Ia mSr
tee.
iersttn,
putatimo 411 be retornt to as tese wit
ord (abbrovtatta g6).
with the
tastis,
te.
et
4ssett
mag ths
be asenay,
the
t the gmputns.
tat for a leng ukaat
n bw
0.
the ma aornlaiss,
tUtio ea ates
witia t
nesltug
m&
smntta
SAt
e gria, prnd sa
the *==asea t
aeust
lattae for
.orlatia taestisa.
nr
e
the sint nmps-
Iedt
1toauuert
f
foe the A" of $" S8mo lags,
h prtiots
tie tem
tffe 4 oee tis testis.
a ate
N" it this
1W,
Ceastle n s of the fern 'ye -9&tf)
ties time, it eut
,t.
be tsoeluded that the steal tatousity
felles a staple *
Saple tkp*eft proees
.sff preen.
spenrat at soy giVeA time wth
pfln to the last "n
barer, is
440
meAWl of the tsa
tWP
ties
ter pweetetabflity of
time lUg weuld Stt
ease the atoe
C-w tt )
presess t set 1n.4144e4 here a
psetdstive tatoento.
fs mmerg' otf estsa
Wat this s,
sigtal isteesity is fat a 0oe0d
atte.
being te sepaia-
.
ates-
lation fetia
tha a Staple Wsteff
a Moet
time lag say .44 some
ises same se eoqta.
t. see if th
ae seed.
Ospwtetin#s w
4es for a I0
ate
pretiotion with he
irstt lag at 10 tes
is the Past at #s4on
stafte Is the pet s
t r a 30 t.lt prstietto with te
lag at 30
flies lag at 30 s ates if the past at a eonS
slate
were
is
ft the jat.
nh
60 set
the stations soe tr
leg at So
tes
fer the eompatiee
eepNttieao
'with nteateasy
witia the grid
Thefe sow eeOpstatioes were mate with the same datp an
"soe
methes s the earlier 0emptatie.
foresee. betes. the results here a
Any
the
igatisat Li-
the sosparable eariter
results' senl4 be Aw only to the oheages atde Is the eperiseats,
Prosall of
Me sew eoputatioee, the sams quatiti-e listed few
the earlier oepitations wn Obtalst except the time and spa**
narrlatte
repeat the.
fields stieb are the same so there vs no need to
19.
V.
om
O
r *%sflYOM
SFIRR
5
Ismiatet ntette. is wiset with ON& peeteater
Who
pla4
R101f6&1O
no.
bes paistt eptat the se
Sf etatia (predte-A)
a typsat
eapt.
Is sen
eseta l is
late S*p1I - tat Is, te
ter es etati.
sinas t"erMsses as
ise
the saber ot preottere isesee.
As
usw Msperia-ts.
ethe
gsus 6 $hass these earvs
fist ue*s tat tm
toghs
r f pgetietare tor
hOs es
serd isth
-
bews the
to flste.
Ins
aether preetter S set .e4 any mwe lataemtiaa, it
s alat anther attabs snoestat
enees ot
ee
smitnese.
4eiatt
we Wa
ts ter
prestOtws post awe eas lan
they aId us mere iatswste. it
atiss
the
wh11h te
er gifisnt, eto& Is to nay
wUld esm
seither weat 40 this job feow
set e this beees
seeaase of this
e psist beyOs
eesiueag presn vbh this poat to "e*he.
to n*4*r
the
deesses
by am. this aws for a bettor fit sat
thepoenea better
hnmterItst,
d thw
at the F test
by steppig the
neswer
r Ttesto sot a walti test ws
it "oe
appsf e
segal teasttes. the F test is bassd up= the
asOnptiaX t he"a e
stribatet saently. 0ls clgnat
istasitieos arn tar fe
shes teir t tsetutrite.
beiag tstributet saAlty. f
lees wth a perfet Sadar, their
tistrtats wate esseattafly be te sam.
ether test *
lPi
m
Therefore, sOe
ess It neesbt.
A* epiri0at test ftr sigmiemas0
&Ws etis
the
6
20.
ftewlltag ansaa.
as seatdasiet.
mhe Uar.
this i
data reort at tee of the statin
at disturb their statites
new1,4t all pnttalliity.
as ssk.
st of the naporimsts tWhe
Is
tiWo ante seets were
S1oMe fee the prntieteads a
?4grs ? shoes the
is te an speflaseto pin these ieet
sat grit 0se.
(asatiely t
t
ate
ieecnlatst rete
verses te aWse st petstews tew te satee
su*ate prtitia
but It
reso4 iclstd
mmth e 10 sad 40
eSperlanste with the origal static dasety
te inse. La
the toes
pretieter t picket,
tnamtoa Is ais.es heo e to
the deprees of f0ee6e
ise
s ash
the Pst whenr the slope of the acem-
lated retetiea Is arses. ears tor a pretietabis esort etheb
the slope st the nsnepestag
aNst the last
s
. few
as.
eeet Sheu
376a this polat te
glfIteat pre&ter.
tis .se Is redsette In arase eft te prstlctabl. roer
shlt4
Ws 6W. 0sly
ts the
these potite are arket
e1ses.is
the degree.
at
" W *Ash ses
4 the setu
freeta.
S
ispreS
,
Sie. the etiste siOf sash a eriteal part Ot the renIte
tepnes pes tOse
mate resorts their hehwse
ewtt e-esing La esso detail.
poeasstes Sa
t"e stat stal
shalt4 Setesira their bebavter (wtt repect
to ascatate RV as a tastis
te)
then ae
sat *so an
et the amber of oesa rpett-
Is th msa suer a arg m&aple
ar
o pretetaats La the serestag preosss.
suc reosts i=itaed
these pasatem
are
the reert lagt (s$ple sts) sat the amber of possible prndieters,
the effctive
IqgAt st
all resents "Woldted
IS the
s s ares.
sereatag preoen
lawesee
iwles aesertag
to the pretetian ti
ta a
teeh. this retwetia tieugth is aIsessy is o-ter
to oepvto the tile 1pge
aea
isngh is fisit., ebea It t~
nernlatta..
Rine the ieert
length for a.e
orsesd tfethe
pretutife tie to te le"gth fr me e t greater pettttla
f Ste oeros ooelratin wine
tn, the smat epsetwe
between a large semple at rnsts rooer* et all or the posime
pretistere (potetabIe iSnet.) shalt
t4a.
avenag hIghr at hiAr vlet eernettoe
mple of wame
W
between a largo
rents eat all of he pretietble serde
shoa1l nestr o the pretietton tin temoses.
the retutias
t atase Wp a pretteter oboesa 1 the srewsg
pror6tesal to the win
the preUtt
en the
(a saea
pmeo
to
f the orrelation between it ant
rert in tis ease),
therefore, a
set of pamaestrie arwee, ob of whiob is the sownalatet
aneigt ew a
trp Wept
t Wase psoerde am a feetItan of
the mSeer of obesen peatoe at With neor legth (pretieties iS)
the
OWp0inter VU1ih vias efang thea, sbt
141 at tatesopte "at slops whteh inr..e
hoe
with deersag
reort legth (Inaesistag prettba
in),
te o er premetew,
the musber of posible pretetore, is betg belt easett.
If,
en the oter beat, the "lolt lengt wee telt eeoteat eat the
setbe of poetxe preotitor we the weawisg peannier, a
S
he
umilar sot of .wi
oe het4 han V eais tatereepte eat slopes
rteb teses with
nssag
ithb of the ivnageS
ashore of petbo
speetre of wis
pretieters.
of oers cerrela.
a0.
te.
tsap us3te et nem
btees a
nfsold. atd all at the
be a tonei
peseible prdttewe aishe
of the amber et
at the avrw
pOtie preetan.o Thenene, the pper bunder
aget speetra wil fal to leer sernaima
s te saber la
mee
leer retetisne Is
wiues a", ergp,
poesite prette
is deeeaset
In
eNse
th, aso* nat the atth at the avengeS
ea all .t the pesibl
reass sead
e rsert teeth
Inree fStien at
t reat fhatIan at
Wth the retetise
the seber at pesible pwfliers.
Oase for a sades wnst
hets be an
rtitcn
sate
ample of
aare
btwe
*petrn ot ores aerreleMi valse
Is
sai-e
being a finIte at Me w6th ot th
speflams, the rent leth at the samber of pfeetble pretiete
shawSW thenne
teteasie the as Webavuer
of nate. snord.
inivitml
of a taigS esaple
It eat be poulteS at that he behavior of
nae resO44 my
deate
ipem the *"a behavior as
S flee the behavior
4etnatnd 1 the1 ete pawente. vtgore
.f am tadtvitual sate 2nt.
fi,
nearS ne iseluted ix the
seestg preee is the earlser Vol* wth original statios
aniety sat grit eis.
*s ieort hee
Mere is as maple at a individual a-
sbhavier felleve the axpetet ma
a targ smple of saea
reat lesgh, aIs Ylgw
neeser.
behavior of
The varyg paenter Is the
7 we ee a eneatle Ot a indiieal
ressOet whee behavior Seviatee tre the espeatt esa behavior.
Onsfder the ares ftr sates naeart #1 insld
£0 astate lg
eapmtateise with
te reueat
t the 30 aas
station
natsity (D).
nI.
the arrisg
NOWn
*s shutter ter the so inute ourwe tea it Is for
1egh
sh4 be hider thn
the 30 ab6t ue , the O slate -rn
nmts resor.
we
ee avage evera large ample
if beth
the 30 sunt oe
of
be mi two smides resere
lastut of a large saple
be teeiSSA to
ftl ss
the
4istribstet asealy,
of the pasfsetefl,
esueao
RV as a fsotien of the saber ot
atlity of the an'ated
ter *a iatitval mate rnert.
of a protietable resert wlase the tistribaea
1eM
of valves Is the
A wmy to aeselish appruaimtely the ase thing
be to repsat
(iseAdat) data
a gi*ms perisat aay
sh tip.
A sisgie
times uflsg differet
atMareord would be
taauit s ne eeeiag prmss ash time.
lest IV urs
tr
ot the parsasten,
limte.
the litte
The highest oan
rsort fro" asig the rotitias
the sea^m
woulA to,. the eat iew
If, for ay given combinattot
en the varaWAItty of aS i)a4vi4a1
redes resort were dtmsot I
of
Put the
mne auSt.. taa the intenait1*e
naeeuiint inteeties an so
oea in both,
wore
eafsastdee limits an the varl-
welt e psetiUe to ostabis
resto
It
ot ths nariability as
i the mna0m4tet signa iteneisf
asah as psIe,
*heses
halTter, thre-n
tho etnt
ae
resultSe
,he
elgetseant pstflflIty
be affestd 1y nrllity s their
wold
it
epeite Is ibeerv.t
the
here Jt
3A
wit whIsk to detess
may
ses the
.
leag
enOter is apis12, O ne
this aseer then the heat pnge
siifteesee in the msea wold be the aeAge
of se lIitig
a4.
oTrveT,
Iv
a
"estles th s
a
g
t sets efebst
to wait ietil
will hae
tm
ilable.
Il the gerant stsfg, a neatitste pesdre se
out where pesit.t.
If bth seat.
exporamat, their V ens
th. tree 11its of Mh
take at ah
ate
wre ts*lAe" is 1a
wu. tegAt of as a
WSiability.
ariet
timas to
t the t9
te aVnp
ms no athet, this oe
remitlag
n
ens
the ~g of uittiseas for that partlar eeartet.
only
me
its IT ov
swled It *a eperiest,
th saem rsorts *as
ms seet ales. (smoetbsh).
Re tsb thee is see
two raades neere.
ealAitp semfiei
deteinttios of the sigmitinant tV
prtstabte west., a test me Se
snear
the aisag~ of the B, sre
is
of
mhe n
eariter,
of te two
(a) the IV turn
of
ittfewest IV eare
seed as pe
ts4
IT onrves of beth of
sxperiset aestteed
statieital
a.
In (2) (ni.
taste
7).
emeetere for he te tie
(1)
incied
statics dsity
resort #2 inmlutod Is
30 minte aperimt with WO tis lags, ad
.
of sig-
rns- ore
serd
"atM.
the S0 state aperimt with the Origisa
ant grit ese,
a.
et
for the
onbintion of the two
(Seh haeing the
statit teal pnunttors) 'ene eoesvely
aiesse is the
as fellows.
three
sperimat with two tin i4e.
for Ostas rslord
ass
is a effort to fiat out hew ask this
nuiabillty OS atteet a
30 Omt.
*n
ange et thsRT vnes for &t beet only
nn.. wareh awe the
of the
If
(3) the average
xeserds Ueldet
in the
A tote easeerang the two
lag sperssito t
rm
anenq;e the lesgh of
s totee the psette
eor
ti
te tste tws
to a lag tis eae
nnnpafl
eat th snber
es of0,
se ter ee
et Psewi
flt4,
time lag.
ae*
(1)
ant (a) "mithit the
gaest heaseS
atiferemee betwete a
curves of the tee sNAe
MOVer0 tr
the
*tattstieal psmtre.
Nemefheles,
a
sebistis
mises
the
3 at
of the
et the so
"?
oer ali te statices (pretistable Poent), as ,spswatly
.n.a a. US. av
eestiasa
apst (g0% we the a
f).
it Pig. 7 ?ews wtv the
sa
ate
.rs, were at the mt
he ubqtvar of eeso esrt
raoIts is the
sma.
Ptfpense em
O=ster te a? curves ftr te 40
.zperimet with the ertgael Stie ttsity
tee the 30
parsmeters ae
enrvpeta
mnte
#0
riatlity of the 3? surans of tltie
sd nenss to eake sa 10ite
e
ely a*
cgpnmsat with Ie
and pit
ti.. lags.
tabate
$Iso at
Se
Maomse for thee two aperiuat.
the
statttieal
Althogh at
palate these to curves bavn a the avewags quits
4ifterent ft valmes, i
then slepse ae
lUg pointe thene is ot
too nok
meepared at oerreopnt.
tittersne.
As it
es state
at the begiSS of this tis00wwtoa, it is the slope of the 1W
cures tr a
tAat
rWf
that tsatinses
the leel
of tigalfie
eaee.
"hwere " we nead
records ialted Is the 10 ana 30 min-
*te speflImmte with the rnetA
mt.asa eSperieat an 3? se
the ern for the mteA
staticn taet.
Is
ert
eenete
Iaelet
ier the 10
to ntg ae a gaits
ia the 10 aints cpri.
meat with the original statte tacitty and grid cisc.
hr the
26,
30 sisute ezperinsst, the IT curve for the
In the 30 mInt. spertimnt
adem re
with the radane$ griA ts
rA istet
was ned.*
r.w
AnWofi IV AO =I=="W
NISU" Of
eagpries of pntietifity shag the orsgtnl statt
A
bfletrty u gritese Wth peflks*Wtty stag the nhntea
etatta
dostty,
seewowa ess04gr ag .penletts lises t1e Ot
et s eXsiter totiatsbhilty I* te
Oest t leg,
ma ewer
negure 9 sbews
is sash arrisat.
ath e seetas
NOqteta gsaly - atws oW psetteta" tiu. an"
this
a tatalAr sngsfleia to
is tat F
ane the Sen
-nt
is Rabt 1.
vtewler asmAv. the eiastet petats
Is warieaset. wtheb. ertlsl
ntttsen
Ameft% eat eiL Sties; e 2#9 a
an of the -
ullty to after bet
e een edastiese $a vadt
at 10, Wo,
stalls $sslt
~es pretiota-
nqr little, this apras
f mnatita go"ue
1.det Setine, tea, that
seteties
stalin
"mers 9tat the nmprtuats
at 0 sises wit the tstet
Is re
sTtan 9
pst#.
Tint fettee La
of the
is the
ash *w
a'sssspt eme allt te puettstsads ineistet
retasita is nan
Mnt
nr dash
eaesa
ef tafeuuasts sat tagwss
tm stanttee et weand
with a
tagp at timi
tw
ese, at"
t
seS
thme
b7 ntoim
entire. that
the stall4S Lastty
lbs iffersee besee
the imn
is usess wth the siglflstalin tesntly atd pt
*s eat with the Ie*&L
stain
asmetly Laf esens
t*tly but
Vatenlvy s te pretltste Um iseress fti 10 to 60 slates.
nto
Whether or set this seesaajy ejseoatie Sspneemnt with
taonnsag tie. he.seqn eatidag to pitte qpa istosits.
$twe alt Us tflnmsee see se
heppeost eitt~t Wp anase
nuetablitty Uw
Pat sewag
the watttive
ito
to he
et is
tat it t
Mati, it salt eflyn len
mseesetia
reat (st be
I
ane tpe of staUstil
th Me mtes
reorS.
to *hew), the feAt tat
ost to antI 'watt 2et Sotaet tees
Itoisse, It we14 taeeste thet the anwot of wlmat
lateguatta to at toast en
it a fAsta of the wrettita
te. Wht to the preelebi ones at fts nsatoshipt It
watt see to he the atf"*t of etatiaa
ofthe possible poetetoss
tfatgp of
a"
etatvte
oe
atty ao the eoattle
pre
4sttea. a
the angrinto wth th esistat
AVit et** 41 the ate.
Ai 10 a
statis tesstty
pretita
tie
eat to a teeser tepgee at 0S stes the simifto0at pretieters
elasteret together As r elattvely seail ragotm le
pwetieisat ast
the splget flestea fSwu it.
pretstis tne (up to et leftwis
on
to the
At graster
tatee), netter At
they winster see ashe
y s elese ta the pntietaat. Ehsy
wer
naettoreo* abeat went the grt is a smett saads
*ebi"a with the santena
bmS
se
e eat
ase
pee-A
as the psettetta tie lereeset, loegi4g is mitd then fttag$
-e tilt perohetabflitty he afteotet by etatita siatyt btnisg
twe tetty he. the effest of isetattag the resatig
rom eash other.
iaba siata th e
s other sea,
at
the a
tibiae.
statens
fa
nest etatles is sew greater.
a sowTheme-
no
tr., wth a gia& SeSee *eaflty the set
itsb ty at ew
ha btewetd a.t ft et wen me awweswy
p.$ttan otant
tiaufttam 611* a mal'l ngtns least 1* as
pnettft
thd e leS t eae this
tan the pwStutat
#tte
seiftt
nr testiea ftrm the
iaftSeen et nflfstt by ittfln
preIt". an wit a $we nofset
Iebflutp ail be
s the
detty
a. gatnt at 10 0
t it will &is.
u'nses.
noetta tie
Statin.e at
ts )
nsatet gt
u1as
eless is wom
1. at ay as
ia a neiga geu se.
mintes
pStbtity aiS
-A
b
wth t"W
eflallv betIae Shea
the stale
ha mt Sb. psestabfl-
esO it ase witha. netainl git sa
sg te at least we h
eefngtaet She tztues*Mttaama yes
menthwSs th e i w
is wSemt,
Ure site
*aplitat
Na.pesflsflts ia
ewe pit so the latteati
better with as eet
ans a.e
a
th "enitnsaa
tia asiwsi
that Se pteteabity
to astualy
gpit ets een nly be te*t ebaS
teet the pieans.
eas
Ut~faaS win
s th e sagbst gpit ea at best elt
sestmesse pia Ie we.
%atterseste ha ft ff1
btes
ise ta.
a$t eebs fte
besese we ee enwtbwin pfesttt.
butty is ths ans oe all a. pwstldsrtn
1InStae is a pates-
law eupeame t.
?iflfnp the
eeagfltea of wehete (na. 9) aeisttete
that a esset Ste tag seens to gIne a mall tegewemt is pne-
4tietbiity at
v t so .uaanw. thw pstitam llty .e t be
so.
Se
MW
to etes emoter tee the esemS 1ag,
stastes met or ai
1
a
e
r SesO
o IIseatet
seai other thee either ft tN*e,
sqatties o r eat ol
see to
ha.S
gma.
Neet
3ew this 11pertnst the
e sfle
able
em the eorees
p
t the fl are peettutenae ibt,. Ia the aipouisset
*fl Snty
natiteoly MAh rewm
at
ae
ITlaSy
oher 19 ed
estse s
ams et
at 10 soates,
aa
I*art se eaa serly 11 lot te
1W re ettee ialeMnea.
he
UN
bByatesd amteelna egaetsoaet
wgtot taprt a.
Mo
thi leaesnte
si6e,
ahltttleweiffaoneaseaiits1neo
sese n at the tee tag eqperto bat with a allt
25 stn.it 1 41 semsat ths sattm
sinWae at
it
tr by
at t te 40 p*etitan
ether with
wth ths oten
botwse
eweer, at
'suit ate
by a seed tag .tt
a. tqronat
a*t
La
etttaWisity
.the
bea ftestief
predtia
1 realt,
proide
ime with
as tpseaet bealg diesosate at the swhorest posstle pnti*tie tum. (10 ains**). te ow latasehp tan time of th first
andasese lgO fa is
.this
a4
e ts,
a.
1M et a 0 spertsee
the sent lag at 10 stat.
stuntether teka i tsn Oa.a
ag eplata why
leee sly 10
neo fst agu, wheas a
snai lag at *MinS.. lea, S tat.. fther bosh,
seed tag at 10 sissies to
erefereset
t tA thea the fint tag so ws e0e4
pretiite
tateatia is be addoS,
The
aly asah o t flret
eptet vy little sew
Sat the seeS lag at 30
51.
smints, to msesgA difm t Stit
nta etitiet
"Ofa
set
ot
t the tiuet lag to
fy" be a4S4.
fnnttes
fw thi debestiesn
se fm
this sowarsa
prgmetabitty in tho Son 4smdAo etitwy
otaflo ota
as ma sot ne to obease.
Aiftiewlty **at e the
t be Oweal 4et
the o
wriabiity.
is qute
ees
10i
of tis
-
as M
hs
that to0
W te shee"
*
the wiability ot tie senate An to ebmcee -ea
of the naem neS,.
teal wwiatulit
0on pepeatet "W Maes, sOek ii.
tehl it
te evleel
Oet se e,
te"
of
itily at hsee dedstias nests.
be betewSmae rb peseai th e ae
ad if
s
flvien
fisth it
n en
iase mee
efe
if e1 th aspn"imWste
stag a
$a te tf mte MatatI pell nlsW
Wudit
be ft to
fMeAty ia astually
s *atnnsag the etatitt
fourest data enest.,
notat to still eviet
e that it to geal.
flo pesetleal Att
tlag this we attesd to sessetie
with
the seAnde sts.
the seWo
Mta Sn
pawed Is tUo we*,
h pattn
thee m etetais inn
"atesW ae m e pit
v
oy 1e sea
fr Sto Glae
of eperimaste at
be separet or the patters at the
s.genel pretttns tine for - ow
sisa oas* of expetast, sa
time nxperlests wth tie rebid statis Aesity,
Neiter of these cOWertess em be U
desiet ese of the litte
weneetshn
sSet
ly be epa
h"en - aestoly
of ew eapOrtants flk
as
t
.
ax.
.t 1n asamed *Witt eer tt
the oWt
ft iswetaSe
psflen at oek pstiotln time in the ersp
ate wih the
estagIai Static teetty sat grt sloe use senially the ae
tee ltteatisg thuthMe grit we entinly 1ew
osa)
to en-
tat. the nsnmese prodttWe lateette to. all the statt
at aUth e
wt
peltettos flae.
the seemoet gt
A statter
ste wete
qepetne of
pattern
wrvey iaterwewttaget sept-
tatmonetlyg at 80 tastes ae nlo4 a te @)7 eoqgews
ea be slts woith the patton f*#O
i the
seeae
anigil) staticn lsnty eat grit sine at 80 elates.
sghatd 11k effot sink a eienatsn.
the
ses the
tgesee
the pattonoe so esesta1aiy
en pvtietabllfltee few these two espeuitas
aels entiafly the ae,
tint the eteet ste gt
emusyolitiw
that
ae
thee tesbts innv the iageesstes
to tang. easeg te eastats the asseSat leat at "0 stwaas
taia
t
OWpStat
a bit, to t a peettitpthat, it wattsiee with the rtwe..t
se ens ml.e at peottettea is
grit
t
tkht fate that the patters
ta~teattag tat the rebot
hugs
git
geter thea 80 Santes,
at
6.o et se tis
tek et 1e000 negh
th e
ten all the
pnetiettan is.
gsetee Wa at Il
te the esperleete wt
ert~gnl
bait
tre retest4 stteSt 4esty a the
smts desiaty ad pt tis at
little ttffnease
elate
* ea& the meteotisa taI re sno .patern
then
to
oets the tweo, the pat tore at 10 eat at 60
en aloe the s
a*emigi
30 seate,
s*l islu
,
0to00
Siase rtmoag
%ay
a ell
the static meSty
ses
to
prehtetablity
Um
SAib appnsay esees wit
tneaag
ts,
pettia
it
#see0 ike0" te te pattes fer sprtusts with t1e "te
tsbeus dmasty a1 pe
suta tes gpeter sthm 40 slawte
wet alas he te eSan as the lat$*s at #0 tastes.
(~fll,~ps ti
ne
ste US a
ries
wt the
sith attunt
fst t the eteea
theirte swia4 esteatis
the s st er agat
#1ee
thewthg
wit
lss. (74ger 9).* Mtw aw
ne tat the iamiaute
o etws teir eespaetagitt Wete tine is
te 4iftsesss
artees with iseflesag prnttsts
tmes U real 0at tfbt te
spiuuatis fee this nlatteaahip is sueests,
ve.Utr of ti
it
aese ia
itlteatiaa eat Us
sesiote li0slp tat it
the
srteeea et its esplatise
west t. etltSte wlmdat
he the erialest etinag gt
e.
with the teast possible expense
to geitabflitp', tedelag the pt
at 10 sat peseibip
seaet e
so saotes
aas will he the heat eth
snt voenbhg the sttic tanety
will he the best stint at peet80nte ties geater tan 80 ala5r sagrese eteng the staUs auiesty by hell eat the
grt eta. 11y at
a flirt
vs bews tet as itattienat Ies at
a tettamat
prststabiiitp time seflalag that mah of tbe1 de
few eotitisea tis e p to
te!sUty at up te
0 tnt., with nrpt
to spatial
sates wth spect us spatial
sa"t.
34.
iat
a
are th
ts,
t at pnetestia tiws
ta
hw usmh were e the
*
rater than theoet
I aa
A" towthe
wiethet a
en the statism Entity ew the grt 'teo be wstod
sitteac
*aes*
pretitelHlty?
Ue saly ay to Oere
qseetieas t to try 1ee1 fete
ampset.
hpentssste with te psst
retest
Little ita
#heek.
we *et step tt
by a Wft 1W
statts 4emtty at pr
be worthbile as a
@0 ta&ses aselL
geter ae
be to
heke
ehee the
tatism busntty agrta
Aa tate-
satg aly 30 of the orltsal IS0 sts.
eetiag attept weetE be to sen what wetti flpps it we sere 4o
wedtse he deintty se4 that the enbr
to
hne am Wus* of
nmpw*"t
eitisat
ot sttin
9stes
be egVl
pretotere aW iadietetd by te
s f . Pigre 9 Shown tat the as
ntftiest prettOtews
wet
aSer ot sigju
ft sly 3 at 10 *iates
to 9 at 60
Miates.
por"teeW with te pent
hues gpeaee tha 50 taasese
gpit si
is triM,
aoeener
ese gid at prnttt
before em evn oalew
mier the preseet
AS it nosatiS
-ed,e0 gtd *tI tt
esny
retest
toT met be tarp sough to Inasts the
retlotine iafsematte at ot or men of these poeio-
tieI tnee ead thi
at
be a
Itesat.
flpwsamte witag a eemSa leg at spotetes
*ba 30
e st
time preato
asles S maetd fir further istiestien of wheter
te lafouastem adet by a
predtotas time.
Of eee
tae
sed lag isa feett
of
eapeinste at swent lag
35.
Met
er the ean time relattenship to the rtt
dSflt-A* t# at 10
5, flIsMLran
lag as In the
Sat WSates.
tIWUe.
We have aehet certain pctatct jaetne sheet the bata anS
hew bees etuat the sente that aesk et it is ndamant,
Deters iS sa nlutes is ctsndtt tb er sanes e sait paee
te waeder wheter the qatiase slgt ave bese tee peintet few
the hint a*5 geitty at the at.
of the etattles wthin the grit sente
Deenela the dm14t
te laser aeslplfalseat lees I. prettstabfitty. As It was asnsto dtrswlar sanstry at the s
tmoet eeiter, the esr
serwelatie fislh (Tfgpre 3) hitte at eso a resalt. tat thestiner seaetry aloe
iagiie that Wtusping tea tffent
stern tegether te she up the data we he
asses et
all
tmetwcs.
UIttst almst
lativtal 'tors are rarfly emerphas.
The etateste at esnsbam
therefere neet the tslitleatts
lntreaae.
that thy apply slty to gasnhtied
The sane
qpalttttse shalt4 be atteet to the rselts ter tee time lage
hae bwret tftfcreee
besae eaebialag the steen teptiat
31y
La the tin strestese as wall as It
s apae etresturs.
Redas tig hese at the gt
sat lees Is pnettetablity.
seems als to luer me ulgndfl-
We sny yet etect large lessee vhes
this test is extetdet to psetiotlas ts.
greater tins 30 minutes.
Beet, it wealE be nll to realise fat the same results wolt
haew been ebtalaet tt tn tata flseatet
-
tint is, the data at
4m
te Statioe
eltaited by redAing
pnere quallty tla the at
the
at the stattes ubith
"Is penibility Is not snily
aidte
nil.
,. fp"
nwe
eft a
namE.
IS shes
"#tas wthe S f the #ridset
the
that p4mlly
to
Eld stn*
The nestte
pretttie0 tiS
lt nariams
FtteflS
fow the ethe
with the efliaal station Lelty atd grA
else show the ses thag.
r*
VII.#00006010& INRR
er to asme
aw
hsebjesfle to ts proe4, a nteeIgteal iatpntatia
*t the naeete pegertet hae. eMt aeier tgsr
an em'floehwr (1).
the iesuite flthme apoestate with th *4igst *'ttes
ad grid smt
Vte
rn
iot beense they 1m1te
t we 734. 13
I11 he LtflflllL
pgateet piogletla tsan seetra
wth all other eapea'Inftal psnenmde
wll be f
esteut,
faie osslyeie
bewS
W Ia Itarnatia et the.
ospoatse with the nmeSe States Lsefte,
eat two tas leg,
aettp
Wte1
OfMe
waae'S gt
sin.,
thee latter aeroestse eheet im. able to
bo tstorpnetet $Jet ae wriatiese am the asperiante wth te
SMtli
*rgtsa
efty oat grat stue,
flnaty a tiffseat
ot. etW4ot1t0s8iIty
stentg fteer
eel lupitle
hiS h ee mstefswlegl*
wtil be dinssset.
aLsa
A. UuflfhuemenateL
the realte
ee Isf"wneot 06 04 t ntee"elenl
nteeolegiOa SUet .
Ihevogeo, Riestes all, vs .t
est aan
stolde
at epeat. the etgeste ae th, envite frem naetselgloal
gnet-s.
(1) ~M lno @e etime typo *t pndtisttea ecbee swot uSg$1
be
S , iter a ethewes,
te peer qshlty
oR th
dew s eem oese neatter abet the vegreiteesuowe,
VIML pneta Silty beiag asewet
re.
(),
*kSeestI
time etentias I
taoestly pnpertmnssit e the
as,
prve, botes
essasten44r0 emr the
rT c 1
wregnee et
-o
nil tbe pfl~tea vqge-
sien my.s ft" ow b*oo t tbt m". lbeaeft
quat4 o a.
*P aseeast
t 00&
lnflt og psettetabif4 ter te
-*
t
hegs
ao 1w. atan0gs
snge .t
1*.
t
a.
lag Alan
t ut I".
(2) The natnty .. ii big awl. (nonrd lagth) ow
osa
WOWtowoo
a to ts
4hsto sotpats uo'Ationstps,
*b esettt
a
gIs a weetta in nrtae
M$o* , s pn6441tty fhih
to too
Then
*t6b
*%os.a
rrestlta,
esoeunbg tone as seem inaly as the pneastta
btoee
Shte,
oetteein
mstn.
Wr te o40 state pnettetta,
A sagh Is tha
1
roe, Igh
n the o..ntnn
tim lIssess
the eset
the
Wlf whe4 it as few 10
as Smee Ia 74g. 12 give oen
at u ohsee euesttae 4i4 sent,.
Modresethe
to
marty eastast leent Cpnetltbivtwy begtstag
at *g Mues 0f steaag em int to s0 mIsts Ows
teI te as
wmpevtet et.
that the flee Is 19
slattass.
A
t
emnast prebftte
a %e*ORAtoth e
In sA4ttWa,
slase a eattasal tows
p'ehtebttItty wit lasrfotag pnt~et~a t
eOw
ste of affltre or uwteenlew,
stint pre~tatetatty
hib ehsae
lb
feas en10
I. th e
0e "egit of esm
enpteleesty It
elssttane aleJ
As
the wSat ef
i* sigt e spet that
g9.
the ma AV as deto
shate
Mereas ftrm
aet 4 phystoai nlticashtyl
the 10 state pretiettea tIe
it
asmOoth fashian to a walia at 240 sawtes whioh col&
possibly be only ame-ta
ve. as it will e Osha
rid, 12. sr
a
as larp as that hem in
phywtal bas for the mesa T to 1#g1
Vitaity of 60 slates at denrss
MenO
off In the
at a mash sler
nte to a vis at 240 aiutes that we14
ptthps be
as that shown in 7g.
abut see-half aS lere
is
laer, then
12.
ma AV bOaYt $0 slantes (as
, part ot Me
shen a It&. 12) ea mst 1thaly be attribated to high
e*ee ecreltaties.
(3) Then is mother possible aea-flseal explaatia of
easest preflstabi11ty beyeat £0 minutes.
the aporwet
to eally so pretiotalitty
tee
It to tht
yat 60 *ita
s with the apprenmlftely saestat level
or mSa AT iU the vietaity of 40% wepneseatlg
tie6# 0
sparly
that twe a
rn refeseoee.
only as
It met be epestea
LV will be grater thaa sers because of
taees .onslatiss wish will alwas
fistc
at all boe
te s~meplo
se.
eCur with a
biovem, a 40% na
highoer taa the ST from a rndea record
37 is
hoese oorrela-
tiens with tbe pnettors are all (we to chaeee (see
ipres 7 mad 8).
Oessqwetly it t oe isered that
tho 40% level represents a sipifloest meam RV sa
above theory maet be tiseare.
the
'Ane tusne' wv Annnn t aeft us
eas seen setne
oaese
ne us' atf ewe en 'en asstna
pensE
uORa
Wee
-e$AflO
0 Ate e
Wfl
";;adMq
W$ *M4$O
MUS
aqnua *daws r'o flee qn
etswveflP eda es
*4S40 oU$ aels
.6t
*tesse
oeweste PW
flo494tee
;wg, n eovse oq3ee11
ae weo es
*e'sins
ogl
$S
es 5e
WflfltSe n'vlo en e ewie
sw0e
i's-nest en )e 04W en
p. snegpe
fl$O
*a'n
'o*en
p..
oet0
ines
stneness4p1eStt se a£eoer asel-esg (t)
eso Ahqeseane so age er
-4etnnsme egnwes uP e
sM
*nlsoqgStte
eSsW# Oat sWe s
W
time)
Wee
se at 'cia s et;
oteen es 'seegau testesnsw nn n ap ese
- "nonn etes e
-a
po
wKo inse;a eqs se opessed
eqqqaIs en5 e.gnes
a. sss
oen
en (t)
eee so
etwes e
toos
*metegt #es
&
s
es
anee
As INyt
zwuts
s10s
a 'aM e0s 0o
n a 'aens
imOA as
sssus en
w*oSPOO en ()
es e;5sepefh it
gast sow en (5) *l 'MIN 90 OS; al ag 1 1n een uesnUp"
na
tsu
sow en (w) top taet vi swees.f
-eat enw
4
e
a
enegaoti eaeseg i'oeaeseev en 'nes.e
p.e 'eSe
eSql nSees
i n*oavi
41.
A Itaae pfUlotan ee4
wiii t1tor oat sly tia*e
%ehaflm *at thes te anse
pnrOutte teft
leve ofst pnt
itaUtott la
Ig. i, to t
t0 -ibSoat is"Mitty of the pettetem
t0 s-imer bisate of the
fegmee of s-Itsosty
flty ever the
part a mtlt of
mothe t* neasst few
ePmipstatta oteestE
the
1a *010.a bbafle to nlty a fees-
teV ethe te or 4tatteoo ate flteh the bihesor to est4.
s. sa
oe
Ofttott* atteo tothe bekever of prftpia
tatte cloet. hesee it ie seaati
the Uf 114. 13
ovtnsat that pestles of
Stfh It %tledto arlee tea hibe
ne
sess.iatteos,it te eboervat that Itsen pwottatlitty
esoeaen
ty aS a funtle e pretfte
Wat to te 0sel ease
Vf te
tate tee sewu
(1) peouttene
(a) growth ad ttootpattoa.
toly a seisaar presosi
Bseat
that the a
g
owv l
ha rneiy tiflte
40 we,
at
atd ietpatioa te seet
ties eat is therefoes the eta
bevter
over, there to as a priot rene
r bet, i it
t
bhvtor Vt he
ea a"totiot
raes fe the Oesall aetae
to be saemt
ea.
a-lter
preaslptattag elsemato? teir bww
oesaoes
ot
ce eloeats.
Row-
wlq growth oat tiestpatit
has
s m st,
it Lees sot oe
peolble
pt g tabta ity ever prettica tif
as ohm. 114g. 1* mealu "4 Sto
as it to ts to poor tta
paIty stet.
if greeth
od tuiattn Vr the peeotpitatiag aleusato are
th Wa news r theta na-mtme uabaler Over peu1ts of
tin eWeepetisg to the protiotis tine, it to atntaally
40.
milt tat tle itftiao
Linoens, fun lb
e ot ino asu h
t o es clets
ng of tem
s
nW
t 1w tie prettia
iase. It, a ote ethlr bat, their lt4tee
a*t of
ma
satite get ow
tas te aennpge pretetta tie,
their behwvtor vmit appeeeo m
lie er.
aswegp leest e pnettlAsblity ton
sta"
awe espetely
ovidet
weev.
13
wel1
tA 10 MSme
mat I
the bores.s th et fewr-
t
wal prsttg e te
ft" a hio
sheea is W4.
to
ab
bete..
aseR faa the 4. ten.
ern at least
to
*a stes
where m
eeent is Mig. I.
targest besee is
flawtng oleefttM the beawler .t the p'nitpibtt ie eete
tat. te a@es, me limer cat the other newsteaar, e enf
tast
pbylei
Lob easen attittoml
moa t wIth te viaei
114410 t its bhntir
t ta
of thM e prepstatag
eat tistslatn) scens
stomsat, the aeinee wae (peth
fw
bast" pgtstabil-
aee ianlnt. Ibsa the pwote
ty where peotptattsg sett
tmeo b sht
ahest
wsie,
n the other heat, the
lItwar me (penststee "at atweties) anoints for must Of its
bfleter. As the ate ot the pettetta
ofthe elasts teses,
the
itty
ite to the litttue
iajerteee of the to
sos i asesantiag for their behv'uier sewers a therere
ithsar pret
bi"itty
tiMe to lifetaa
eeesc
eat
wth as iweresseg
prettetica
att,.
te hetmal
tea
a
te pelpitatiag ohuate are
neblhty prpcwttflt to "ter liftia
esesaaly oteet a
a. m,
.Mtarger
that Is, as it Is
the peipitatte stee
45.
the tweer it late. 2t61 esseta betwee the heetamtal soe0
oat the liftie t peestpitatitag eelate ores
ta to the
as tatwe-
Sens St the msteeselbaal festae - th
at
of the hesnail sloe to the op... neettia et the flttee
Is the gita.
It the w t. to
pvetttatlug eltasae
.er
this ees that
al,
be eneeet
1e
stalm ties. Althn# the sea
oip'", beIg te
seate, 411t be eaetler.
awngag flesth e etatia sigpal nem
tea it
.
La satee to aglI this
epniteafl
to the emst.
slt or pet.,
Is theemt.
eSlflI
la
m
itesm-ilha with time
Wo1t hew ben if the ate no
Petter iseaw peitatablit
"sa1wi4umI
esnt et grsoth eat
et th statc
awn..g of the eglaeet ofe
a4.age tattaa at
tateetty of the
oeste will way wattty with tie a
tiselpatMa, the writme
aea"ar ef
.
ebeSt
fens*oe
ig. 12, we ne4 to
is
a evt
tatopetatia
he wth eaa ettaty flat the tea Stovse whish eupoee the
Ofe wo seb o s taste p1eiitenOtags otstes
ft
he
te a o es
As obeet a the I
thessea sla
at we net
11etmes Ot thee elasante.
N", Isag pretpttise
oAe
gbsee pateet
n a te estr of 1W0 mites w. thie tomimat featue
oef sh of the to stes,
the. tar oe
no statw
* as abeat two are.
Mteert
litie
The era sesage vw
of
the
wnae 4tt en "It a stntatie ofthe eper imit ot the
seetmna of tet
lifetimes.
lewewer, it to appmeat
that es
44.
penstt for ae
t
esety of th.
sit
bers bssos they estered a as
Pw npe, s rese
eatntty t this leh
oft i.
indite &Aleft s the eter
latsrpstatles, It will be osed
of
tee lao
the pu.poses
wer
tat the aneag
p ae s t he ester of fiv
is a lire.in vbbh e witbis
tha
lftis
end
oe. They
W * to oat et
me 9at * wit
teir Seet wriet eeseibmebly wth sti free ainet as *etis
to
eeds wa
spood (Ww
wee snipt gestee
a6
imtly s W.
the 100 *0
o00 wi pasE
mo
etd
their e
bn$
ati
the ten stem fse appiea
, hgo het eteal
iattaites twees newi to atwsae the
XRe scope ash oft th
tiw tbsr wee bsaorvet.
then Is peE YMs
tatig elemas we
eiee. tat
UaSgs
tes
preelpi..
ads & t " ay ofal "i le o the ste
esrved y Swell%(4) "a Dattee (6) *oft
emers.
%rit
lasr safd Jay of be
v19 a 19*0 Isel adoe eemmtINes
proeslptatia %W*as
St th -RU sep. of ft As1/0S-1 mafr
Ot
drt saarly all Of the ses of thse
anne.
fe feet
tsrias lanary that for apgreustol *A or his eboowtlsoe,
the preiittit
sestal etse swead
I" fltiag free oaretivw soils whae
.atI
slath
bert.
e sitaer of the seer-
ties siaseitered a beetel ly-e
streetwe.t bria Jldy
all ef his *soraetteessemateot esnetin9 oistl shes hert..
oatal aso avenged
aset * tien.
krsts
casettes p.e..t.atiq *th. first aed
layer at a elattiwly hi
OaILy he
ed that
as a herisestal
oea settase atseisy at
up of
4.
tUnsed den.
the sta sm
elte Vte4 O*.ppfdr ibt
The tea stnes seen mtat
fa
bth te srat
LPII& i th e tea
*easofl, ie
4andrsten statiesee nn
stelneme
wbyas thqwm La 4 .11s Obiwstn.
Nat he to"e
f his Jly *bnnetitSA
cetllar flmotur. I* "I
nt 'later
the
pagsx
twn his &t weS1 abs ao diffes.
*040"al Of tuowh sf "Willasm
of *11,1er
the frepeep
eses 1* his sttatatice #UfOV.IM
0a14 eadbs. teir ntialttty ninlat hwsfl).
etrettw (it
ea a neaUttely sa*l samplo bat seer
Rif statistits ae baS
itata is asem.
thelos. tei
flasftre there stealS be
little LtaW tat the larg preSplitatag elments of the tea
tMA, Soee 111 phetes 9
eanns this
Thee
-
."dwain
Utssonile athe
neetig set at aesata 4aart
tfortmaty Newell's
o
to t of esewtta"
011S Neell Abeeri
it Iao
, not allow
sewr, 3a
and Jam) ao the PPI stepe of as 50RCM
t pneoipttattag r
toe hig a
nil.
a asnep Itfetts of aspm
t of thee aa
tt&tg.
n
of tenr stemn is 194 (.e enob is Zsb-.
ebernaes
rey, Noak, MW,
2 pieta"o Vt the teA
he jtate tflbn.
him to *nAsree te itfbtims V tee
rear feed
el iar etrnetan.
sti
of the bi
tem met liely %es..
to
of the stews tas
enl
they shaeet the n*I% soni
"ells ien set
(0. trem
ojerity of te
ossesel Of these saI nile *est
sesIs were
up to O0 tie
3
ately o- hor for
La tienter.
No lab
sesiteet of at 0st sevenal of the sall
theres
lll tr the amage
, lifems
hrow Is probably eashat
of the eall 0sils.
4'.
lIV" eeratites of presipitatm
with the P1 no*pe of a 10
tooer bata the smer of 1947, atta (a) eportS
lifetim. of 23
.
s4 aesag
use for ell of the ese tat Nawll ebW,
For tho pnpas- of t
0
it Will be a"iMod tUst
latermretatm,
th. ase3age aIntM O tO Oan 00ll to 400 the eO h0ur'
to raaaptttate, thS
were two UaOts since ot pesepitatse
lents tat omi4 te oerneSt % the sbr aurtag nOb at thc
em stoes. . fo as fa the Order of 100 stIes Is bwsatal
areutt
"tt with *a anae
a"
ticother es betma
I en At1 al
extst wit as sag.
teaer I ,An
aappetaatoty fn
lifm.
*0
wit a spe
Is
s"se
horisoatal
of les then a. hour,
noi
belte.. esc &an ose
art
what gpeater U"n the 00 ub itaS optea " ti
sOesmeS l4 westes vmaseshers
beers
latter hea beca
to eave with apresately te
epoo of the 100 ab vIM,
istenataio at weAaamie
-MMMA
lhts Ifatetoo a
te etem
a the
a
Matn a
-aume
steo of s prtpitattoa of the
will som be Vea to ealpes ti pre"tia *orvc chess
is Fig. 1.
te
4w theoc results
secn
sesOluts
for to
a S Ntlee (t40 fiv
Ml
eqprtuntss
sware'),
np
ntet
ThIs to
mct ask lnwger taa ta c eise of the sc11 prelspitattag clemts.
The predttaa tume
ws $lissp eating to the poriS*"C tof
which the behavior of the cmall
a iar
best
leaets fanabe escoatet for 4y
schen mt to lees thma her aveege Itfetla
to less thn ae bur,
therete
oer
we esa
which
ythat thc man retnw
47.
at the 10, 30, sad possibly the 80 state
(I)
tIn variae
pretitiaa tin"e is, Is effeet, the ine2ar pettctability of the
earee ta IV wit tahimting
with te sapit
sAll ets,
be g un to the tarestingy as1tnaar bSVe
prettitise
of the leants a
to sar maity,
te prf
siattio Inteso
soa ttn-ifsttw
a the 1* a4 30 state esperimsts, te
*ant preoteers for msot of the preditet statit
sipetit-
minatted
either the redUted statis itself or statte insimately
unwiat few the pettotet statia or bet.
At pretti nite
reater tma 40 states, the sigttiaat proteew
pa~er ..nma.t., beefy with a tedI s
ba a
aistiott
preitotet staties Itelf vas uSrely oboes.
robentes Out te liaar Met. of
-
nareistoee ea4 advili
predistabilty
the l1tts
the
osetintag out to 1M0 mutes
to ftavr the Aptwat regn
elewants
ere qgatially
ebavior of prosptitatig
-
S. ispertanat to linear
ube the pretaten time to nmml espaot
of the state.
e.-
Wis evides
with
ith the slee of the sMll elset
being eoswwbt lest tan the epace resobatis,
the linear esbess
to rmaly prehitag
a a stale that ianeole pouhiblg snnl0
the gall leaents.
Obs nvegtg effect of tbe resoletuta an
the sell elements explats
rhinuti as sleet at
by the first prettoter picket at 10
. the predteed
perststeaoe *as so eVIMOat.
of
statios - that to, why
Wit a opSes neooltiaa slower to
the sis of the sell elements, the roe of persistenee shioud
&erease somewhat and sing with it the iaear pretistability.
'Lt us now enalkr the prttotabiltty tee the vietity of
486.
60 statles to 340 nataa.
at
beaaflr
lhe nfal ebbat
so "ats
es haeS
fa
trete
af
an
*ssn.g ti.
at tieue prettotte tims also,
the at
liMeA e behsfler
PestMeo tha
ag et.
a0stesd .t lu
at be
easser to tat
Mq sen te las1&
elmas
so .
af
-0se eter pesigtattag
t. insoesees sWe 60
sat Un0 134er at bene
of
Itetie
As Ob. protietieo
ate their be""Or ill beame Ins
the liar potietability sheald leeae.
is piate out Owet pr
Ot he m
T beyat
doubt Len to high ehuas 0evslatMs.
i.
sviAse* that bbe pr""ebte e" ih s
a0t at pretiete
tins oE
sta m ls
60 iNates
A4titanI
santhiag
detecttt
iffee-
at peter is when is
seawIaeerelAtea eesefiiSLat tons sediotie
1. 4, the
steel
ebseh . Met lowly
sat ia the PPI piet"ees of %be
their beAttW she4 be nelaiUnWY lineAr,
ties.
It is
fanetes
*lt1.
4w
ntoly fine hars, stw a pnite*n ts of s0 simte
as
i14g. 1
lar
S. *toth*s* fleets having as aessg
be ste
A legaal
tines se a*so
slntS is beIag "at0ste4 1 lhe pedime
Agai it
t1h
tbies prsitM
Las
be *e A T to efsatin= to tensses is a 5e0th
et
e sha
If ns
Sete. hew te en
levels oft n s
vieiaity of 60 mia-
n endesaaa ase. gstnly bael.
What at to taerret mneesmag the lser
buRme tsow hewn? Sine we sa4
prsliotability
be gettWing be
probably larnese
time of lb large elemmnts, pnetability ell
sarpy.g If
empeniant#
%inte bow*.
onr ensted at prioe
with the preset data *"pI,
the sea life-
ineMs gpflter
tier. small be little
49,
obwase ef sbsg whether this is the ease atesat beene. the
effuot ef high eflsse oonltteos wait s dab besn
ame peemen
W
v
W
a thte "ts
theS es
welt "eeably
Avwo~er, if a data sople late
minsess with "weeiftia t,
abse omleatlene to a slain.a tow pietitista
eaneh to retun
ties as pat a.6 or S hase won astU.
s.sm boe.s*'".
T
et
e, wo shoald en th
If, t ettitita, ve repeated th esperisats at
all the pnitlofla tims free 10 adint. to 4 how with the largs
seplo at.,
she
a P as a testis of p$16etot
be reposated IV the CasheS earne anst S eo
ie
Ia 1.
miht
13,
the pisest bate is endei oof a variety at weather ataa.
tin bat it nstao so tiAsdrerteen actitety. Lot s ouppos
tat we hate sot of ate eASe Vp of teadeptern
geesoalip oaesea
-
that thaIerstoa
how as the Asep.
n
hiA IS grat
an.
tee
It Is
greater thea
has the aNiseae itft-
ts eW h wge
thoogVa aeMpJtory to the sail peeetptatiug
sleent.Is th e
tea stoe. Tbeefoes for pretietit tiMs les
t"o hew, the inear peoulitatiflty abould be bettor
tsh abeUt
witb tmstseten
t ata t ito wt tthe wsetdata.
This
tapw41ent lts
to the leer pettets tif-lifstn
rSatio.
A woe 1bwaS-like behavier ever the peeietita tims them with
CatsaI th e result.
the gret
the
sesmt spase resoesio
saly a teeo
the sa l
is assh that
nesfyttatisg oleenste ag to samasset
by a staties at a gi"n tn,
*otE eeseps a
at the sttw
$$attes
with a 30 mile resltttia
les asler of the sa11 elaste. A 30 *ile
50.
'elttaa t ale steles to the Orter eal sngtte
pnetpItetag elmmate ten te 5 aile reslutis,
ae tarp
Was a M0
Sette na et nes0ta a w& rer lisa'Utag of*Tet a
ailo
the statis seM thae we w ha
flerSn klghr 1imer
with be 5 tie resottAa.
Sat~eity whaeld be ospeflet at att
as mo te asm
i
tstel
pnetAtta tmse les teM a
XV as a fualia sof irwetisste ties ag$1 be rewasetef by the
a.&te awne aset 30 In Zig, U3 (a large dat staple it aesn&
Qt
4harpn to natie,
heL, if tie eetian wor.
other
thoffset o a teavoc pw
etatfty
Obtt be the
peette
aed the sen LTes a Smaste of prodleta tae eIght be regpn
ete
b te O bet oee ate
he mtts o t
I In 714. 13.
he esperimecte with tb
Mnattp, tie metagee grit e1a.,
Is Aig. 9 Vill -e toest
a
tw
Is a
staton
timwe lapgs us
wariso
effort to fist oat to what
eg.ethey e eawsistat with the .etwilogieal -tisrpntatia
reaet in tme O pnetutg sesten.
at pNOUsetta t
CNatter tirst ie
Of. o 10, Se, at 0 usas
esate
with the reet
famls deustty. A rflessto~ mesetta La statitnmeLastty sheuSS
ese a eIgttqmt e.s ilmeor oraietabtity eavy whoa the
prtAtin tlelitfetime sate to law.
It Ls them tat advetts
is a teAat tentribteor to prettotabitty.
eut 1a ss earlier (teenetem
(Cbapter 1I),
As it me poistot
e11g th
ait
a.
when that itfustlen
iathm
a lees ta pnative tafemtta
afte lely to s.
mA@.ty to
tm to be loatet ta
ae
eei
Atweotiwe latonation Will
thsUtthete.
alwas teadt to be
Utel t aepeetfie negia
elatin
to the
pwette statsa, As It hs bees potated out, aeetiv
atmn as meet tpestat
Is
hme empetlw
at wisth
btow.
the eugaial
sstw tastt at the 10 stante peeitfta ad to a laser
30 4sate. Weisfors with the nadeed
tegpee at
assetty ao
cheet see te largest less t pntttity
at the 10 state
premia ad a
*t
sls' less at 30 statee.
It %"st
Sat
bagene(rig., 9).,
it as etated isa ealerAs
tinwses
(Cobpstn V2) that if
etag the weaseL grit else wor esasted at yeo-
ogsflteet
i4etea tis
peter
thee S e==tes, so
uWO t wew welt see
lesses is pnotitsbfitty been.. the git was set laege eawAg
to esataita
n a
rey petietie iaftMt.
teal iatewgetatin of the results suiriteedta s
gie
Our estesegig. 13 meg
s af idea oft te eittal psetteta tim at fih
ntneet pta 1loe
a laeger l
e se*e"*. Pntl"tIve tate-
#a the large prepitattag elamte
ati
the
sho4
be te first to
be renovt 4w a ve eti is grit se. Sinoe the arge eolenets
sees to a *a e pertet taflseae
a ftais
of pettie
tin us begi
sa
.
linar pretotality as
Itags
states, it *eld Set be mprsptseg to ft
sty tint
the vietaity of 60
a lmes Is prttetabil-
enssriag here.
It is steer0ed
i ig. 9 ts
the Mdditta of a *seed
tinO
s.
lag proehet'a sell isorso
thne se IT fe both the 10 eat
za apresKes a the reeslte t
s0 Sat.** ratn.
at 10 mse
Qhaetr Ti, the t ense
me attbatet
4
thing etle this the asest leg. Aloe I* timt tieSeflo sa
awgmesmt attepetiag to epliJt
tnt if the eat
leg m eessssfly
wool* be Iapplfmentar
set
lers
thea 'te first
to tat given y tbe first lag.
Ith the
of the estse of the espertusato
-Aterpetatta
lag as a oi,
given to a esnt tag.
oe
ot this arpuesat
vvite petiitive itemttca vtlk
lae, te s06"t lag *alt
ntensloteal
a 00 ", lag shalt iSprevo
eeeo
wee s*sett I We
pfetistsWitty
with Jut -
1a*
farther o
ieatt
will O be
P'r eq sheOt pretlettea tin, it Is
dstdnthy the tslsiSe of a smd lag shltd peweie sig-
aittica, tafenettan easeeriug the tarpe presiptatiag olonente
(nonle
Itteit
tint the dewl"eg
appueistely
S beuve).
t spset othe
It has be. asmet
bshfler of the smaI preetpa
tatiag chaste aooont,$ter tm wltV
(1* sat 30 slates) 1tasav pntetabflity.
tit the istroetta ot a #eee
ft telopsat.
leg,
at so Sant. a
* eshort tie
It is set apprent
leg shalt Statie, the Srole
Aloe It to aot spArent tht atteteal tat.es
attn aheat the iase wfenoses (settea)
by a est
t
shalit be pruvited
e mte M
0 states pretotam , the sesat tag
be prtttag eens * ateamtte (W estet g
the lag presipitattug enate pessiby) that I5 better tn
that pNOutdd
by Jnt as lag OaWIe for nost of tNe statt s
their peototere tiAluet ea
tre the snt
lag. HNOever,
34
fso r
the waseittag twe.
the b"gs pirfipttattag
attn osena
eitetsat.
that
*tttaflity is call es the tafouet
With the taene beg se silt,
ie leeS lag Nwo ohew
wflaticmehtpa 5)7.
tiser "O l
at toeptpetttta tieth
it ha sweeagt be. a g
it is psllble
ae
t
Pa ts to UpSet that
Is fa we
oatetn I tflnse baiesa the first
wth
the
0 staIte
prmttetta
tft"tta
Me eAsetlag, O the
the
watd impesae
it wat ha "we
lowly to 'nes
it. lh. restts
baa raire ftar
of estnroebmat presos
eesaieraticsa
bes.. (as ws atd
tie seews to latteat. that a est
esatRery,
Ateb beo
the hit
is a ttmnnlos
sa wepte it) te ehesmetar 1ethe stattettes ofte
eait, to
atbflit,
nr s
e. it he. at Wo ubates.
ese. Sag tea wae net
tee eaS
is hetly
as a sealt of then.e
a e116nS lag will proidb ar in" bqwwnst
Iat
s
bta with
leg 'alt a4 t iftisast
oeibam attesatwo aot~aM of fusuriyag pretiota-
"lit,.
Who veqstnmsest. of a
ane test
aset pnastpitatie foenat usally
(i) the tenet Qgattal pattern of pueoiptates tataes-
ty a (#) the
cret nettta
at enob polat ithe naatteen.
of the poesiptatian tateesity
the reduettem Is wreaoe
the tegre to whieb both of these nteeata
measure
ane attaine. ben.e
Mt
at the ttatasity msva.
it is baeg isa t1e abefute Sjiatt
ueemr, trea the 3? IT*t
to tIettiamaft betwesa
sot p sblo
Patten sad iatefetp oner.
A wab loss eteragt
*ttatt ofa gaoa fmast
osiy the. first nqinhmmnt abe im. entisfit
*flaflms.
that to, the
-
ovter. it
aseet Patten witbast refgle tor pateta
tAt.. s easrselagleat
to th6
this aennop
ag1my be
a~esmto. Nor ins'aef, is pretttag mte fture ot a ftyll
A be as fa t
It is ga
astonet to we.
orgastS oagtll imo, t1 e mos
he e. If the feturo pattes to proietet es
wety, tme foressot wil be essirst gaol.
14 to Sateresttag to mote the) mese to ret seitese. t0at
the hAaaty sehens seeS is this
te pattos
the ta a pntetig
toes00 better is protittmag
0t
tme "Mtesr'ty.
The psoeiiem
*sffieieso (A.,N) .aesatot by the ster-wise reowsisa
seati the
tinowpesatet is the esssiag pepgsin wr
pseti t ea enatta (*q, 1) to eoaptee amll
aele
t iner
of fa-
easteS ampe tor ash pretietta turns of the eperots wth the
so. $Aah
orsts.3. statAs daity St gita
foresstte map as
.bgnttioV osgaret with its eeepadtag aeteflly observe
op is tue epes
otatts
(I)
* spatial IT a. ogtet new all tho
an te map (the detofsitt
of R Is the
a to
before bUt the istasity ernges a" ssueSn over the statims
ather tmo time), ea (2) a ofrnlatta
betweas the eeospadig
e latter tetonines
te
oosefioit was oseute
statien latossttes of the two saps.
ev4ot
P0*5
of the pattea basIWso it
5.0
nnuo e1y the degre
ystematte a
a.
to Wuta
Is set d ssatAa
wi be the feme.
At Ob
the errors I* tateutty
th
a
tttae of the er"e
preoattta tin, the as
nitation oofftotlt oer the sample of ap Vs
the aa
a
hIber thba
igfly sigctft-
etattettes t. %e ver
ast, the tatatta give& by thee is
*or-
a seW sot lengs
F4o4patIt . Th*e the sMle of a
eanh fe the
a
:i
aesthelen,
56.
n4 oovewlss in"
o ahe% tan Itasr prNiatauity at pwsep0.tis
1.
is nslatitvly iatenitive I* ennbl
the gaptat
sastty af tsteati.
atfat at tamestia .
enattme
flogs te
twae to 11
we -u
bea awitical p
to 100
patial
bner the
etet,
2. the selisar beavier of pvaeipitatiasesta
sie
Ia
whoa,
ilke "n artar at agaie
e1aat tow t0e chort team psrtftamlitty Of
preespitati*n,
3, tha seg ussolutia with flteh a tersest Is eta will
lafammee to ses estaat th le
4.
el Of prwfetabflity.
ne qelity af liner prettetia treases
with ti e As
f ethe
apeet hat sat is a epeteestle amne henna
preseas. at atfloaet tae at pweiatatIng
esats
is the aoMs frm which the data wan obtainS.
Rnisaflatias tar ftArtr reasns
1. lawetigte the
isear preotability of prelpitatisn
pattas arisng te weather
ten ieista i th
ad
a,
teattS
tffaat frem
e proeset data e.g., seal1
limno
sit treats.
haaStito in a sgeteatio esner, We attect of VAriaties ite tOs grae of saoa resolatie as pretitabilm
ity.
3. Invnstirt
further the spatial txtent of tmforntion
as a paameter influming litar
predictability.
4. Invstigte further the slvificanco of including a
second tin* lag in a linear pnediction scheme.
M4.
TAUU £
Pretlotite lIm
10 eta.
30
0
Origlal $%ties hnttW
eat Grit Sine
67.5
49
41.6
Edsot Station Deseity
66.6
47.7
41.1
Ste
Re1.e
Mape Ow
- 0 40
-
T ig0.4
The mea paet
Efpertmt
OI.4w-
restiaa n variatee for all the
fow 10
0, a"
60 simate pnltie a.
ho asea is oer all the prtt4aade
ens* .srrtsat,
aelMe
is
59.
Fig. 1. The Working Grid. Each box is 5 miles square
and the arrow at the top marks the direction of the
700 mb wind. All 120 stations were possible predictors
in the earlier computations and the 60 stations circled
were also predictands.
For the reduced station density
and the two time lag computations, the latter are the
possible predictors and the 40 stations marked by a
small black square are also predictands.
00\
-
.10-
-
o-
-
-
2
-1
.00
Fig. 2.
7
min
The man correlation field for 30 minutes prediction
time with the original station density and grid sise.
box to 15 miles on a side.
Eaah
The number in the upper rignt
hand corner of each box to the nunber of station pairs whose
correlations were stummed to compute the mean value appearing
in the box.
61.
Fig. 3. The reduced size working grid. The 60 stations
circled are possible predictors and the 30 stations marked
by a black square are also predictands.
The numbered
squares not circled are the stations in the original grid
which were eliminated.
62.
I.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
COR RELATO N
COEFFICIENT 0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
10
30
60
120
180
SEPARATION TIME
(minutes)
240
Fig. 4. The mean autocorrelation function
of precipitation as determined from the
computations with the original station density and grid size.
63.
1.00
.96-
.92.88.840,2
LAGS
.
80o
, RS
.....
6
30,
Y
.64-
----
...----
?
..---
30, RSO
Z--
'
vrrc
RSG
-30,
S.52.48 -
.200
a.36
-
0-
STATION 45
.12 -
04
00
F
I
i
2
r
r
:
3
4
5
a
6
i
7
8
NUM8ER
9
10
II
i
i
rIII
12 13 14 15 16
I7
a.
18 19 20
OF PREDICTORS
Pig. 5. The course of the reduction in variance (EBT)
for station 45 as predictors are accumulated.
The
solid black circles mark the last significant increase
in the reduction in variance.
Each curve is labeled
with its prediction time and type of experiment (RSD,
redu~ced station density; ESG, reduced size grid).
64.
0.60.5L0.4 0.5 -
0.2-
0.1 0
I
j
0
1
2
6
5
4
3
CODED INTENSITY
7
8
9
10
Fig. 6. The frequency distribution of coded
signal intensity.
65.
.20OSG
LJ *16C-,
-Z
0
.12
0
60,RsD
--- ----
~08
~.04
RANDOM
.00
2
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Il
12
13
NUMBER OF PREDICTORS
14
15
RECORD
16
2
17
18
19
20
.201
.08-
.-
.124
*
0
0
RANDOM
RECORD
I
.00-
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
NUMBER
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
OF PREDICTORS
Fig. 7. The change in reduction in variance (aV) with accumulated
predictors for the two random records.
The curves are labeled with
the prediction time and type of experiment (OSD and OSG, original
station density and grid size;
reduced size grid).
SD, reduced station density; RSG,
20
66.
w
35 -40
z
0
S.30@-*
-.....-
.300
o-
'0~
-9
0
~~~
.1
.-
00
I-
-
0
00
1
2
4
3
5
6
7
8
9
10
I
12
13 14
15 16
17 18
19
NUMBER OF PREDICTORS
Pig. 8.
The cbange in reduction in variance (RY) with
accumilated predictors for random record #1 included in
the experiments with the original station density and
grid size.
time.
Each curve is labeled with the prediction
2
67.
1.00
.90-
.so-
X 2 LAGS (3)
.70-
S 3)
RSD (2) X
0 .60-
r2 LAGS (9)
XASG (6)
*(6)
RSD (6) X
.50Z
0
)
RSO (9)
40-
.30
.20-
10-
0
0
60
30
PREDICTION TIME
(MINUTES)
-
Fig. 9. The reduction in variance (RY) averaged over all the
predictands in each experiment .as a function of prediction
time.
The circled points are the values from the experiments
with the original station density and grid size and the X's
mark the values from the experiments with the reduced station
density (RSD), the reduced size grid (RSG), and two time lags.
In parentheses are the significant number of predictors averaged over all the predictands in each experiment.
68.
30 MES,
(A)
,
II
i
S
REfDucED
DEAT
TrC.
1z
404
(B)
Pig. 10 (a, b).
340i
uTc0D
The space distribution of reductiorn in variance
(xv) for the experiments with the reduced station density and the
reduced grid size for a 30 minute prediction.
69.
(A)
-T
140
1.5
01
'1
Els,
'30 mtAuT
? LAG 5
45
1
1
I N
61j"'
MMMMV
JA
i -01
1C4.2
1
14A3
144.2
43 3
,401
I
I
A ) i
-7- j C 1
//,!;a,
1
A3
Fig. 11 (a, b).
4 .6
55
The space distribution of reduction in variance
(RV) for the experiments with two time lags and the original
station density and grid size for a 30 minute prediction.
1.00
.90
z
.80 .70
.
z
.60-
z
.50-
0
L)
o
(6)
(6)
(I)
60
120
.40 -
.30.20.10 .000 10
30
PREDICTION TIME
Fig. 12.
180
(minutes)
-+
The reduction in variance (nY) averaged over
all 60 predictands for each prediction time in the
experiments with the original station density and grid
sise.
In parentheses are the significant number of
predictors averaged over the 60 predictands.
240
1.00
.90
.80.
.70 -
wj.60
-.
'o \
<
.
50.
04
\o(
.30 -
.20-
NN
.10
.00 0
Fig. 13.
I
2
3
PREDICTION
4
TIME
5
(HOURS) --..
6
7
The dashed curves represent a hypothesized mean reduction
in variance (RV) as a function of prediction time and space resolution with the original station density and grid size and a large
data sample rather than the comparatively small one used in the
present study. The curves are for space resolutions of 1, 5, and
30 miles, respectively. For a comparison the circled points connected by the solid curve are the mean reductions in variance
determined in the present study based upon a space resolution of
5 miles (same results as shown in Fig. 12).
-f.
1.
1et, t. V., s. A. t1isben, "'he Slnte ?wsttabflity
vmpert 34,
isseb
at Wather asr Sil.,'
Unather 1str bessvsk, swtnat
oefleglw,
nuflesett* insitt
of flsh.tgy, e1a. 1960.
3.
SUM, 3., (sVAter) estates Aa Sttttise 1 Wetber tsItistlaa,* Qheptn 11,
I Rpot, ?enen
t
seter
3s.e Cter,
nbser 19BE
Short, S., 'lhyluieat OtbgsusI teestis tpplied t.
3.
keintlt. Sgsrt 3, ttitetl
'tojoFt, wgesstlag
flssesbaett Is$tst
Peegatest Vatneteqg,
et
Rosner
Wstwy,
1904.
4.
swell, 1. 3., a*'se
r 4nrsafns
of ?rspsopbsrle
Catisler Cnsnetle,' Rasnnh Report Pa Wettber
Rmber Rssen, Sqgoetmet of Muntelogy, *nasna.
oett. Zastltwte et tneslw.y Jointse, 190.
of Qeevnttwo tarn GienS Wt','
Joti. ars. Wetner. Beo., 34, p. 309, 1961.
6. fltta, S. J., 'Jostes
6.
Mtase, 8. 5., 09s tifsule of the Well Wmnpltatisn
Johnes Cbseore em the PP1 Roepe .f the 505-41'bfre,* issseeb asport *o, fart U, imgertant .1
Ueooroslegy, flswesehsetltts nIt.
.f ?nbhaly,
/s. 1996.