Understanding business replication: Impacts and best practices for developing countries by Olivier Paccot B. Eng., Industrial Engineering Pontifica Universidad Cat'lica de Chile (2004) Submitted to the System Design and Management Program in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering and Management MASSACHUSETTS INslyIUTE OF TECHNOLOGY at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology JUN 2 6 201 June 2014 ©2014 Olivier Paccot All Rights Reserved LIBRARIES The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper ow known and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any med or hereafter created. Signature redacted Signature of Author I (Il0yir Paccot System Design and Managenent Program Certified by redacted Signature V Dialdin, Thesis Supervisor -Dania I rer, Sloan School of Management Signature redacted Accepted by_____________ Pakck-l6, Director System Design and Management Program 1 This pages is intentionally left in blank 2 Acknowledgments Firstly, I would like to thanks Professor Dania Dialdin for her guidance and full support. Her advice motivated me to go deeper in my analysis. She provided me tremendously valuable ideas and insights on how to quantify and organize my arguments. I would also like to thanks the whole SDM staff, especially Pat Hale for the excellent program at MIT. In addition, I would like to thank my study group and classmates at the program. They made the program enjoyable as well as learning from their personal history and background which are inspiring and encouraging. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my wife Coni and my children Philippe and Sophie who followed me on campus and supported me throughout the program. I would not have been able to complete to program without their constant support and love. I would also like to thanks my parents who have always pushed me to explore new ideas and live life with optimism and energy. 3 This pages is intentionally left in blank 4 Table of Content I Introduction .........................................................................................................................----. Literature review........................................................................................ and Background 2 Entrepreneurship is a driver for development.............................................................. 2.1 Levers for Entrepreneurship Ecosystem Development ................................................ 2.2 Imitation as a new lever?.............................................................................................. 2.3 Is imitation a recent phenomenon?............................................................................... 2.4 How to imitate or replicate?.......................................................................................... 2.5 Can copycats foster the entrepreneurial ecosystem? (Part 1)................................................ 3 M IT startup ecosystem framework ............................................................................... 3.1 The dynamic startup model ............................................................................................ 3.2 The startup process in the United States...................................................................... 3.3 Startups lPOs/M&A or exits over time .................................................................. 3.3.1 W ealthy entrepreneurs turned VCs ...................................................................... 3.3.2 Innovative Capacity ........................................................................................................... 3.4 Entrepreneurial capacity ................................................................................................. 3.5 The creation of a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem .................................................. 3.6 The startup process in developing countries - The Chilean example............................ 3.7 Startups lPOs/M&A or exits over time .................................................................. 3.7.1 Innovative Capacity in Chile ................................................................................... 3.7.2 Entrepreneurship Capacity in Chile ........................................................................ 3.7.3 The dynamic process in Chile ................................................................................. 3.7.4 Can copycats "spin the wheel" of entrepreneurship?...................................................... 3.8 Case study I: Groupon Chile - ClanDescuento ...................................................... 3.8.1 Case study II: Mercado Libre Argentina ................................................................. 3.8.2 An example of a "Clone Factory" ................................................................................... 3.9 The story of Rocket Internet, a successful clone factory (so far).......................... 3.9.1 9 10 10 11 13 13 16 17 18 19 21 21 23 27 27 29 30 30 31 32 34 35 35 38 41 41 47 The critics .................................................................................................................. 3.9.2 3.10 Copycats are not easy to replicate in emerging countries............................................ 48 50 3.11 Conclusion part I ................................................................................................................ 51 11)................. (Part copycatting better for Principles Analysis of Latin American Copycats 4 52 The method ....................................................................................................................... 4.1 52 The Sample ............................................................................................................ 4.1.1 53 The Variables............................................................................................................. 4.1.2 57 Characterization of the copycats studied ..................................................................... 4.2 .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. . . . . . 57 W hat has been mostly copied?......................................... 4.2.1 59 W here are copycat developed? ............................................................................ 4.2.2 60 W hen were they founded? ................................................................................... 4.2.3 61 copycats?........................ the were W ho were the founders and how successful 4.2.4 62 Statistical analysis of the copycats ................................................................................. 4.3 62 The model.................................................................................................................. 4.3.1 5 4.3.2 The results.................................................................................................................63 4.3.3 Robustness................................................................................................................66 4.3.4 Analysis of the results ............................................................................................ 67 4.4 Principles for copycatting .................................................................................................. 4.5 A sim ple fram ework for copycatting ............................................................................. 5 Conclusion and future research............................................................................................ 6 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. Appendix 1: M &A history in the US (Source: NVCA).................................................................... Appendix 2: Interviews......................................................................................................................86 68 79 82 84 86 Appendix 3: Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix ............................................................. 87 Appendix 4: Logit m odels results ................................................................................................... Appendix 5: Com plete Database....................................................................................................... 89 91 6 Figures Figure 1: Southwest exponential growth (Source: new.edu) ........................................................ Figure 2: Heinz brand versus ow n-brands...................................................................................... 14 16 Figure 3: MIT IDE Framework (Source: MIT REAL). ....................................................................... 19 Figure 4: M IT IDE stakeholders ......................................................................................................... Figure 5: A simple model of the Startup Process .......................................................................... Figure 6: Venture-Backed Exits by year 2009-2013 (Source: NVCA).............................................. Figure 7: Companies that spun off Fairchild Semiconductors (Source: PanchoDaily&Crunchbase) Figure 8: The PayPal mafia (Source: mercurynews.com)............................................................. Figure 9: The ecosystem generates a virtuous circle .................................................................... Figure 10: the total investment has grown over the years in Silicon Valley (Source: CB Insight)..... Figure 11: Innovative Capacity in the US and Chile......................................................................... 19 21 22 24 26 29 29 32 Figure 12: Entrepreneurial intentions is higher in Chile than in the US (Source: GEM) ............... 33 Figure 13: Chile ranks top 10 in the world in entrepreneurial intentions (Source: GEM)............. 33 33 Figure 14: Entrepreneurship Capacity in the US and Chile ........................................................... Figure 15: The ecosystem does not generate a virtuous circle..................................................... 34 17: Needish w ebpage in 2009............................................................................................ 18: ClanDescuento webpage which is very similar to Groupon's page .............................. 19: ClanDescuento's pages when acquired by Groupon .................................................... 20: Nazca Ventures w ebpage............................................................................................... 35 36 36 37 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 21: Copycats can spin the entrepreneurial ecosystem .......................................................... 38 22: MercadoLibre and eBay (Source: Webarchive)............................................................. 23: Copycats can spark the virtuous cycle .......................................................................... 24: Alando.de and eBay in 1999 (Source: PCMag and Techno.net)................................... 25: Firms backed by the Samwers and sold to its rivals (Source: The Economist) ............ 26: Rocket Internet funding over time (Source: cbinsights.com) ....................................... 39 41 42 44 45 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 27: Internet users and buyers (Source: The Wall Street Journal)....................................... 46 Figure 28: Example of dataset used for the analysis...................................................................... 53 Figure 29: Distribution of the copycats in Latin America ............................................................... 59 Figure 30: Ecommerce market size Latin America (source: fnbox.com)....................................... 60 Figure 31: Copycat year of founding .............................................................................................. 61 Figure 32: Tim e in years to copy ..................................................................................................... 61 61 Figure 33: Year of experience prior to found copycat ................................................................... 62 ................................................................................... of copycats distribution Success Figure 34: 65 Figure 35: Odd ratios ranking for Logit model .............................................................................. Figure 36: Odd ratio ranking for oLogit m odel............................................................................... 65 Figure 37: Variability of the odd ratio for different models........................................................... 67 Figure 45: Adoption curve for various products in the US (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 19 9 5 ). ................................................................................................................................................ 68 Figure 40: Structure of successful copycats ................................................................................... 70 7 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 41: 42: 43: 44: 46: 38: 39: 47: Relationship between Link with local business and probability of success................. Sonico webpage which is similar to Facebook ............................................................. Pinterest (original) versus Pinspire. (Source: NYT)....................................................... Value versus Tropicalization.......................................................................................... Distribution of copycats by B2B and B2C...................................................................... Comparison of capabilities for copycats ...................................................................... Success of copycat according to Execution and Experience ......................................... Framework for copycatting .......................................................................................... 71 72 72 73 74 77 78 79 Tables Table 1: Innovative Capacity in the US.......................................................................................... Table 2: Entrepreneurial Capacity in the US ................................................................................. Table 3: Innovative Capacity in the US and Chile........................................................................... Table 4: Entrepreneurship Capacity in the US and Chile ............................................................... Table 5: Background of Mercado Libre's cofounders ................................................................... Table 6: Selected Kaszek Ventures investments ........................................................................... Table 7: The Rocket Internet model.............................................................................................. Table 8: Barriers for imitation across industries ............................................................................. Table 9: Model description ............................................................................................................... Table 10: Summary of results for Logit and oLogit model ............................................................. Table 11: Odd ratios and P-Value for robustness check ............................................................... Table 13: Advantages and disadvantages for B2C and B2B startups relative to the size of opportunity. ...................................................................................................................................... Table 12: Original company's market value ................................................................................... 27 28 32 33 38 40 43 58 64 64 66 75 76 8 1 Introduction Copycats have generated a lot of debate over the past years. On the one hand, Rocket Internet (a German online startup incubator) has been successfully copying or replicating business models from the US to other economies. For example, they created CityDeal (a Groupon copycat) that was acquiring by the former 2 years later for $ 126 million. Because of their business model the Samwer brother (cofounders of Rocket Internet) have received comments such as; "The Samwer brothers are despicable thieves, How do they sleep at night?'" said serial entrepreneur Jason Calacanis or "I hate Rocket, I hate the Samwer brothers, I hope they die, but 1, right now, I want to stay, like, super quiet so they don't come after me2" said Neil Blumenthal CEO of Warby Parker. On the other hand, imitation has been around for long time and most of the industries have benefited from imitation others. In 1966, Theodore Levitt wrote in that imitation is not only more abundant than innovation but "actually a much more prevalent road to business growth and profits" (Levitt, 1966). Or take Les Wexner, owner of Victoria Secret that takes a month off every year to travel the world looking for other companies' ideas to adopt 3 . He says that "business should celebrate imitation". In this paper I study copycats in Latin America with the objective understand the role that copycats can play in developing the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The research objective can be summarized in two questions: 1) How can business model replication (copycats) impact the entrepreneurial ecosystem in developing countries? 2) How can the odds of success in replicating business models in Latin America be increased? The first part of this work propose an answer for the first question by suggesting a simple dynamic model to illustrate how copycats can become an additional lever to develop the entrepreneurial ecosystem by decreasing the risk of new startups and increasing the probabilities of exits. Using Chile as an example, I show that developing countries have a 1 http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2012/04/features/inside-the-clone-factory 2 http://pando.com/2013/08/30/best-way-to-deal-with-copycats-dont/ 3 http://www.economist.com/node/21554500 9 high passion for entrepreneurship but low capacity to innovate. I argue that this combination is very suitable to foster the creation of copycats that combined with traditional lever can accelerate the development of the ecosystem. The second part of this thesis proposes a simple framework and a set of principles that may increase the probability of success of a copycat. By studying 120 copycats in Latin America and using statistical analysis and interviews with entrepreneurs and business leaders I make recommendations that may maximize this probability: 1) identify major trends in the industry, 2) choose an idea that solves a local problem and requires strong links with local businesses to deliver value, and 3) build a team that has strong execution capability. 2 Background and Literature review 2.1 Entrepreneurship is a driver for development Entrepreneurs are defined as people who transform ideas into companies which eventually turn into profitable commercial enterprises (Lederman et al, 2014). These entrepreneurs and theirs firms play a strategic role for countries. They take risks and challenges incumbents, which encourages competition and fosters innovation at corporate levels. Often they develop new markets, new products and create value for countries. According to the OECD report Startup America Latina4, new companies foster structural changes in the economy by introducing new products and services. At the same time they provide dynamism to industries and create quality jobs. By fostering economic development, entrepreneurship is "a fundamental driver for growth" (Lederman et al., 2014). Arguably, startups are among the most dynamic firms in the economy which can be created, developed and destroyed depending on the market conditions. Scholars (Aulet and Murray 2012, Lerner and Schoar 2010) segment these startups in two broad groups: Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and innovation4 Oecd.org 10 driven enterprises (IDEs). SMEs are companies that serve local markets and have limited capacity for growth (for example a neighborhood pizzeria). In contrast, IDEs take advantage of "global opportunities by bringing to customers new innovations (...) and a high growth potential" (Aulet and Murray 2012) such as Google, Amazon and Apple. The impact of these IDEs has been an important economic force in the US. According to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) of the United States, venture capital firms have invested more than $ 456 billion in 27,000 companies. IDEs created 12 million new jobs between 1970 and 2008, comprising 11% of the total employment created in the private sector5 and generating revenues of $ 2.9 trillion (which is equivalent to 21% of the US GDP). Thus, due to the positive impact of IDEs many governments and scholars have started to develop strategies to foster startups by strengthening their "entrepreneurial ecosystem". This ecosystem is usually defined as the different stakeholders who influence the creation of startups and affect their posterior success or failure. Stakeholders include governments, universities, risk capitalist, corporations and entrepreneurs. Thus, many authors have tried to determine how to build entrepreneurial ecosystem in order to create value for local economies. The next section explains the common levers encountered in this literature. 2.2 Levers for Entrepreneurship Ecosystem Development Scholars on entrepreneurship differ in their perspective about the role of government. On the one hand, Brad Feld (Startup Communities, 2012) argues that entrepreneurship communities have to be developed and led by entrepreneurs who have a long-term commitment to the community. Other stakeholders such as government, universities, investors and large companies should help the community. Feld's argument challenges the prevailing wisdom that government or investors should lead the community. On the other hand there are those who argue for the government involvement in developing the ecosystem. For example, Josh Lerner (Lerner 2009) argues that s Nvca.org 11 government should play a key role in fostering the development of entrepreneurship ecosystems. He postulates that entrepreneurship development won't occur "in a vacuum" and thus that entrepreneurs depend on other partners. Lerner argues that government should set the rules and let the venture capital and the market decide. For example, policy makers should set rules to leverage local academic research through corporate incentive such as tax deduction for R&D investments. However, he also recommends that government not to over-engineer the entrepreneurship ecosystem by limiting geographical location of startups or preferred industries. Additionally, Daniel Isenberg (lsenberg 2010) offers nine ways for governments to create an entrepreneurship ecosystem. These include stopping the emulation of Silicon Valley because many of its elements are hard to replicate (for example Stanford University) and shaping the ecosystem around local conditions where the country has a certain competitive advantage. Also, based on his research he postulates that government should favor the high potentials ideas rather than focusing on quantity. He notes that "one success can have a surprisingly stimulating effect on an entrepreneurship ecosystem by igniting the imagination of the public and inspiring imitators". Finally, governments should provide an "easy to do business" environment where legal and regulatory frameworks are respected and can be trusted. Yet another point of view is proposed by the MIT. Its framework proposes that the ecosystem should be leveraged by accelerators, diaspora networks and immigration policies, early-stage capital approaches and prizes and competitions. The goal of accelerators is to bring together resources to launch a new idea and at the same develop entrepreneurship capacities for would be entrepreneurs. Diaspora networks and immigration policies develop local human capital (for example the Startup Chile program where international entrepreneurs are given $ 40,000 and a work visa to start their company in Chile). Prize and competitions such as the MIT 100K can also foster innovation by attracting different competitors (MacCormack et al 2001). 12 2.3 Imitation as a new lever? The previous literature on developing entrepreneurship ecosystems doesn't include imitation as a lever. However, many scholars have examined the notion of imitation or replication in their studies on corporate firms. In the following section I summarize these findings. Many scholars postulate that firms have a first mover advantage. Lieberman et al (1988) suggest that these advantages are related to proprietary learning effects, patents and preemption of assets and location and buyer switching costs. However, other scholars have postulated that it is better to be a strategic second (Markides and Geroski, 2004). They postulate that one set of factors produces radical innovations while another set of factor consolidates those innovations and profit from them. An example is Amazon.com which in 1994 was a fast follower from books.com created in 1991 which is now unknown. The appropriate timing to enter a new market is when the dominant design is crystallizing. Moules (2012) goes even further by recommending entrepreneurs not to innovate but to imitate arguing that most entrepreneurs are not inventors and that it is more important to be able to "out-execute" everyone else in the market on that idea. Levitt (1966) and Shenkar (2010a, 2010b) argue that imitation has more value than innovation for the corporate world. Levitt (1966) said "a simple look around us will, (...) quickly show that imitation is not only more abundant than innovation, but actually a much more prevalent road to business growth and profits". However, Shenkar (2010b) explains that imitation is not "mindless repetition; it's an intelligent search for cause and effect" thus good imitation is difficult and requires specific capabilities that have to be developed. 2.4 Is imitation a recent phenomenon? Imitation has been part of the general business strategy for many decades and in various industries. As noted by the Economist "the iPod was not the first digital-music player; nor was the iPhone the first smartphone". In fact Apple didn't launch the first 100% touch 13 phone; it was HTC a Taiwanese company which focuses in smartphones and tablet manufacturing. Examples are very common in the corporate world where copycats or imitation is considered normal and not challenged by society. Shenkar (2010a) uses the example of Southwest and its European copycats to illustrate that business replication has present for many year and is accepted by customers and investors. Southwest is considered one of the most successful airlines of our time. It was established in 1971 in Dallas, Texas, by Rollin King and Herb Kelleher. Today Southwest has revenues of $ 17 billion, more than 46,000 employees and 3,400 flights per day. Kelleher created the company on an apparently very simple business model (Shenkar 2010): " Fly short flight and point to point (established airlines would fly through their hubs). * Use one type of aircraft, specifically Boeing 737 (standardization provide cost advantage in maintenance and training). * Turn the plane around quickly. * Use secondary airports to reduce cost and increase efficiency. Southwest created the first "low-fare" airlines in the world and it bold strategy has been successful carrying more than 100 million passengers in 2010. Southwest Airlines Passenger Growth 100. 5 80 S70 .o - .s601 50 40 10. 1970 -- __ 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Figure 1: Southwest exponential growth (Source: new.edu) The success of Southwest generated many imitators in the US and in the world. In the US the model was copied by AirTran and Spirit Airlines and established airlines created their own "inside" copycats. However, one of the most interesting imitators is RyanAir, a 14 European airline founded in 1985, which has grown to 6 billons in revenues, 8,000 employees and 300 planes. RyanAir's strategy can be summarized quoting Michael O'Leary, its current CEO: "All we've done is copy Herb Kelleher's (Southwest founder) successful model. In fact, we're maybe the only people to take it beyond where Southwest has gone with it." There are many other industries where imitation or direct copycats are generally accepted as usual business practice: " Pharmaceutical industry with generics and biosimilars: When biotech companies develop new drugs their invention is protected by patents for a fixed number of years generating a monopoly where companies can recuperate R&D cost and make profits. After the patent expiration "generics" appear making the market more competitive. These generics are basically copycats of the previous drug developed by another laboratory. " Supermarket generic brand: In recent years many supermarkets have adopted their "own-brand" which are labelled and formatted similar to the original brand (see picture below). These are copycat examples of the original grand which are sold at a lower price to final customers. In some cases the "own-brand" is produced by the original company but in many other cases these are 100% imitations done by third parties in partnership with the retailer. It seems that it is generally accepted by the market as providing good value for the final customer. Thus, imitation is not a recent phenomenon and has been present in many industries. 15 Figure 2: Heinz brand versus own-brands 2.5 How to imitate or replicate? Winter and Szulanski (2001) identify two basic activities when replicating business. First is the exploration phase where the main objective is to discover the Arrow core (Arrow 1962) which can be understood as the "what, how and where should the replicator be trying to replicate". Second, comes the exploitation phase in which the business model is "stabilized and leveraged through large-scale replication". One factor that can increase the barriers to imitation, however, is the complexity of the strategy. Based on the work of Simon (1962), Riskin (2000) defines complexity of the strategy by two factors: The number of decisions that the strategy conveys and the interrelations among them. When the strategy is very complex (for example Nucor6 business) it is more difficult for the imitator to develop a good copycat and thus the probability of an imitator to emerge is low. Thus, the more complex the business the more difficult it is to find the Arrow core and thus executing a replication strategy. On medium complexity strategies the dilemma that the original company faces is that in order to expand their business they have to follow a "recipe" which can visible for others. Riskin (2000) postulates that the more visible the "recipe", the more copycats will emerge. White Castle is an example: They are recognized as the pioneers of fast food and grew fast in the early days. However, their replication strategy was so visible and the "recipe" so 6 Nucor is a Fortune 300 company which is the largest steel producer in the US. 16 easy to copy that many copycats appeared on the market (many of them even copied the name: White Palace, White Log, White Tavern, etc.). In the long term some imitators out- executed them to become worldwide players such as McDonalds. Thus, the success of replication strategies should be a function of the complexity and the visibility of the original business and the execution capacity of the replicator. Much of the past work on imitation/replication has focused on large corporations. Very few scholars have examined the notion of copycatting for the startup world and its potential impact on the ecosystem. In. the following section, I propose a simple model to illustrate how copycatting can be a potential lever for the entrepreneurial ecosystem development for emerging countries. 3 Can copycats foster the entrepreneurial ecosystem? (Part 1) In part 1, I illustrate how copycats can foster the entrepreneurial ecosystem development in emerging countries by addressing the most important pain point of these markets: the lack of exits. Copycats have two principal advantages to solve this point: they reduce the risks for potential buyers (due to replication) and have a natural potential acquirer (the original company). The broader transmission mechanism is simple. More copycats mean increased funding because VCs perceive less risk due to the fact that the business model has been proven elsewhere. Some of these copycats will have successful exits either by mergers and acquisitions or an initial public offering. This generates wealthy entrepreneurs as well as role models for the ecosystem. Some of the wealthy entrepreneurs will turn into Angel or VC investors increasing the number of startups generated in the region. Others will become serial entrepreneurs creating more startups. Both will become role models and might mentor other startups increasing the 17 probability of obtaining funding. Ultimately more funded startups means more successful possibilities and thus generating a self-fulfilling loop. I use two case studies (MercadoLibre and Clan Descuento) to illustrate how these copycats have impacted the development of the ecosystem in Latin America. To explain the importance of business replication instead of innovation I use the MIT startup ecosystem framework. I show that the capacity to innovate for emerging countries is very limited when compared to more developed countries. However, I show that some emerging countries have the same entrepreneurship capacity as the US. Thus, these emerging countries have an "entrepreneurship" willingness that could be invested in replicating business (which are less risky and can spin the wheel) instead of competing on innovation with more developed countries. To illustrate the argument I compare the differences in innovation and entrepreneurship capacity for Chile and the US. The structure of the first section is the following. I start by briefly explaining the MIT startup ecosystem and the concepts of innovative capacity and entrepreneurial capacity. Then I explain the dynamic model of the entrepreneurial ecosystem and illustrate how it works in the US and Chile with their associated level of innovation capacity and entrepreneurial capacity. Then, I illustrate how these copycats can foster the entrepreneurial ecosystem by using two case studies from Latin America. I conclude the first part by explaining the elements of a successful copycatting strategy (Rocket Internet) and the difficulties associated with this strategy for emerging countries. 3.1 MIT startup ecosystem framework The MIT startup ecosystem framework identifies the key stakeholders in an entrepreneurial ecosystem and the different capabilities that have to be combined to generate an important economic impact in the country or region. It focuses on IDEs rather than SMEs because it recognizes that IDEs need different set of capacities to foster its development. 18 The framework recognizes that a region (i.e. country) must build both the capacity to innovate and the capacity to be entrepreneurial. Both capacities with the appropriate linkages will lead to economic impact as shown in Figure 3. Five stakeholders are critical to build and use these capacities: entrepreneur, risk capital, corporate, government and university (as shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4). Innovation capacity (I-Cap) refers to the ability to develop new products and services for the world from inception to the market. Entrepreneurial capacity (E-Cap) refers to the ability to startup and build novel businesses from inception to maturity. Both E-Cap and ICap are divided into people, funding, infrastructure, policies & programs, network and norms & culture. ECONOMIC IMPACT UWRS"T AAIKCAPTAL Figure 3: MIT IDE Framework (Source: MIT REAL). Figure 4: MIT IDE stakeholders 3.2 The dynamic startup model Using the MIT Framework and the experience from entrepreneur Jerry Kaplan embodied in his book "Startup: A Silicon Valley Adventure" (1996), I construct a simple model to explain the dynamics of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The process starts with an aspiring entrepreneur and an idea (IDE ideas). Usually the entrepreneur has no money and the only currency is the company's shares. For the entrepreneur the objective is simple and clear: increase the value of those shares because in the end it will be exchanged for money. 19 The next stage of the process is to finance the early stage of the company. Entrepreneurs do not seek for all the money at once because they would have to sell too much stock. They look for money to allow them to achieve the next important milestone which will increase the theoretical value of the shares. Thus the entrepreneurs are willing to exchange shares for financing which will be used to grow the business (i.e. develop a minimal viable product, customer validation, etc.). The entrepreneur also exchange shares with other people to convince them to join the team (usually using a mix of shares and below-market salary). Once some milestones and results (such as first paying customers) are reached the startup looks for venture capital (VC) financing in exchange for more shares (usually preferred shares) to continue the business growth and expansion. More challenging milestones have to be met to keep the value of the company increasing and to find money to keep growing the business. If no money is found before achieving the milestones, the company won't be able to sustain itself and closes or is acquired at a low valuation by another company. The final step for successful companies is to achieve an exit. Generally this has two forms: An IPO (Initial Public Offering) or an acquisition by another company. At this time shares become liquid, have a real market value and thus can be exchanged for cash (for both the investor, entrepreneurs and early employees). At any time the process can end if the growth or profitability targets are not met. The few entrepreneurs who achieve a successful exit will have plenty of cash in the bank as well as an incredible amount of experience and knowledge about how to go through the process successfully. These entrepreneurs become role models for local aspiring entrepreneurs and thus foster the creation of new startups (Bosma et al., 2012). They illustrate to these aspiring entrepreneurs that it is possible to create value and monetize it. Because of the received mentorship on their company, successful founders are usually willing to provide mentorship to other aspiring entrepreneurs on how to overcome the challenges of the process (this is the reason behind organization such as Endeavor and others movements where successful entrepreneurs give advice to other entrepreneurs). 20 If these successful entrepreneurs decide to do another startup or join the investor community, the process starts again. The following model shows how this process can be illustrated: Ru Mos + R&D Figure 5: A simple model of the Startup Process 3.3 The startup process in the United States In the US, the startup process has generated a virtuous cycle generating more entrepreneurs, more exits and more VCs over the years as well as fuelling local and worldwide ecosystems. In the next section, I provide examples of exists in the US, and illustrate the importance of successful entrepreneurs for the ecosystems. I use the MIT framework to show how the innovation and entrepreneurial capacity has contributed to build the vibrant ecosystem. 3.3.1 Startups lPOs/M&A or exits over time According to the National Venture Capitalist Association (NVCA 7 ) in 2012 there were almost 50 IPOs with a market value of $ 122 billion. More than 87% of the value of these http://www.nvca.org/ 21 IPOs came from US companies3. The top five IPOs for 2012 were 1) Facebook - $ 16,000 million, 2) Workday - $ 637 million, 3) Vantiv - $ 500 million, 4) Palo Alto Networks - $ 260 million and 5) Splunk - $ 230 million. Another form of exit is M&A. According to NVCA there were 449 acquisitions, 121 of which terms of the deal were disclosed. The sum of the disclosed deals was $ 21.5 billion and that "over a fifth of companies were acquired at 10 times or greater than the cumulative venture capital investment in those companies". VenSteacked Exlts syYear200 -2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Figure 6: venture-Backed Exits by year 2009-2013 (Source: NvCA) According to PrivCo9 , a private company market analysis which track also smaller deals, in 2012 there was 882,357 private tech firms bought for a total market value of $ 84 billon. The top acquires of private companies are: 1) Facebook, 2) Google, 3) Groupon, 4) Twitter and 5) Cisco. Thus, the exit possibilities for successful startups are abundant. This generates wealthy entrepreneurs who create or contribute to VC funds and who are willing to take risk in exchange for a high return. The next section illustrates the example of entrepreneurs turned VCs with the case of Fairchild Semiconductor, Netscape and PayPal. SPwC - https://www.pwc.dk/da_DK/dk/nyt/brancher/assets/pwc-global-tech-ipo.pdf 9http://www.privco.com/prod ucts/2012-m-and-a-ind ustry-overview-technotogy-sector-volume- 22 3.3.2 Wealthy entrepreneurs turned VCs The Fairchild example' 0 : Fairchild Semiconductors was founded in 1957 when 8 engineers" left William Shockley's lab to create their own company. Their objective was to make silicon transistors which gave the name to Silicon Valley. In 1959, they invented the integrated chip and grew rapidly during the following years. Fairchild founders had an important influence on the ecosystem. Leslie Goff from CNN wrote "Fairchild Semiconductor would establish a model for entrepreneurship (...) for the rest of the century". In fact, most of them had a direct impact on the ecosystem: * In 1968 Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce left the company to found Intel which became the largest semiconductor chip company in the world and an important corporate VC. * Julius Blank and Sheldon Roberts founded successful companies that were acquired. * Eugene Kleiner started the venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins Caulfield & Byers (KPCB) which is one of the leading VC firms. Since 1972 they have backed more than 500 companies including Google, Amazon, Netscape and more recently, Twitter, Nest and Waze. In all, hundreds of companies and VCs had their origin from one single company and 8 engineers. The multiplying effect is illustrated in the following two diagrams (the first from 1957 and the second for 2005) where every non-yellow point is a company linked to Fairchild founders: 10 This section is based on numerous sources online such as PanchoDaily, Wikipedia and others. 1 Julius Blank, Victor Grinich, Jean Hoerni, Eugene Kleiner, Jay Last, Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce, and Sheldon Roberts 23 The Fairchild Mafia OA 1957 Dim CCWtA Rabeft GOPOW W" a1953 n 2013 ......... ........ The Fairchild Mafia edr .... ..... .... ... .. 2005 1953 2013 Figure 7: companies that spun off Fairchild Semiconductors (Source: PanchoDaily&Crunchbase) The Netscape example: In 1993, Marc Andreessen a young engineer from the University of Illinois left Mosaic to create on the first "easy-to-use" navigators called Netscape. Due to its potential commercial application it was funded by KPCB venture firm and Ben Horowitz joined the company as one the first product managers. Due to its huge success Netscape went public 24 in 1995 and became the fastest growing software company in the world. In 1999, they cofounded a software company called Opsware that was later sold to Hewlett-Packard for $ 2 1.6 billion. Other Netscape executives went on to cofound or invest in Google, TellMe1 and more recently Flipboard. In the 2000's they both invested angel money in 45 startups such as Twitter and in 2009 they announced the creation of Andreessen Horowitz with a $ 300 million fund. It grew rapidly to $2.7 billion under management and became the N01 VC firm according to Investor Rank 13 They are known because they were the only VC to have invested in all the major social media companies: Facebook, Groupon, Twitter and Zynga. Examples of their successful exits are: 1) Groupon - IPO 2011, 2) Instagram - acquired 2012, 3) Skype - acquired 2010, 4) Zynga - IPO 2011 and Nicria - acquired 2012. The PayPal example: PayPal was founded by Max Levchin, Peter Thiel, Luke Rosek and Elon Musk to provide digital payment to the world. The company was acquired by eBay in 2002 for $ 1.5 billion. Many of them and early Paypal employees could not assimilate into eBay's culture and started to work together in different startups and invested together. They became known as the "Pay Pal Mafia" 14 which over time has developed many successful companies and venture capital firms. Peter Thiel is president of a $ 2.3 billion investment fund and a managing partner at the Founders Fund with $ 275 million. David Sacks (Paypal executive) founded Yammer which was recently sold to Microsoft for $ 1.2 billion. Roelof Botha (Paypal executive) became a partner at Sequoia Capital, one of the leading VC firms in the US. Steve Chen, Jawed Karim and Chad Hurley co-founded YouTube. Elon Musk founded Tesla Motors and SpaceX. Reed Hoffman, former vice president of PayPal, later cofounded LinkedIn and was an early investor in many startups such as Facebook, Zynga, Acquired by Microsoft. 13 14 http://techcrunch.com/2011/05/25/top-10-vc-firms-investorrank/ http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/13/magazines/fortune/paypal_mafia.fortune/ 25 Flickr, Care.com and Last.fm. All in all PayPal founders and their ex-colleagues run $ 30 billion worth of business1s The companies founded by PayPal founders and early employees can be illustrated as follow: 14p' I w4i PayPaI slide Figure 8: The PayPal mafia (Source: mercurynews.com) The examples of Netscape, Fairchild and PayPal demonstrate how successful startups created a virtuous cycle in the US. As a result, the total VC money under management in the United States by the end of 2012 was 199 billion,16 by far the biggest fund in the world. 15 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/technology/17paypal.html?ei=5088&en=943bf3f552dO9fb2&ex=131 8737600&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=all&_r=O 16 www.nvca.org 26 3.4 Innovative Capacity As illustrated in Figure 3, the creation of new IDEs depends on the number of entrepreneurs and the VC money available and more importantly on the innovative capacity. The US is the country that invests the most in Research and Development (R&D) estimated at $ 439.0 billion for 2012 equivalent to 2.8% of the GDP. To put the number in perspective, this is more than 10 times what the UK spends in R&D per year. Another measurement of the innovation capacity of a country is its patent activity. In this indicator the US is among the top 3 countries in the world. As an example in 2011, more than 224,000 patents were granted to the US whereas only 7,000 in the UK 17 US universities are also constantly ranked as the best in the world: 70% of the world best universities are from the US (according to QS rankings'8 ). The following table summarizes key indicators of innovative capacity for the US: Table 1: Innovative Capacity in the US us I-Cap Global Innovation Index Rank Innovation Capacity Index Human Capital & Research Gross Expenditure on R&D Expenditure on R&D $ billion University ranking Domestic Patentsap/bn PPP$ GDP High-tech exports University /Industry research colaboration University rank+Patents+Citations 5 1 6 2.8% 439.0 2 16.4 12.8% 3 240 Source: The Global Innovation Index 2013, National Innovative Capacity (Porter, Stern) 3.5 Entrepreneurial capacity According to the MIT framework, the creation of IDEs also depends on the country's Entrepreneurial Capacity. As explained before, Entrepreneurial Capacity refers to the 1 http://www.wipo.int/portal/en/ 18 http://www.topuniversities.com/ 27 ability to build and scale up startups and is influenced by the local culture, government policies and processes, and education. Particularly the local culture is influenced by the presence of role models. For example, according to Bosma et all (2012) role models have an important influence on aspiring entrepreneurs when they decide to start a business. The influence is even more important when gender, country and sector of work is shared with the role model (i.e. the impact of Steve Jobs is higher in male entrepreneurs, in the technological sector within the US). The US has many iconic entrepreneurs that are widely known because of their achievements: Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg are well known by almost every aspiring entrepreneur. Sergey Bring, co-founder of Google once said: "From the earliest days of Google, whenever Larry and I sought inspiration for vision 19 and leadership, we needed to look no farther than Cupertino (Steve Jobs)" . Other measurement of entrepreneurial capacity include: low fear of failure, ease in starting a business or closing it down. The following table summarizes key indicators of entrepreneurial capacity for the US: Table 2: Entrepreneurial Capacity in the US us E-Cap Entrepreneurial intentions Fear of failure Nascent Entrepreneurs Government Entrepreneurship Programs Entrepreneurship Education Ecosystem Ranks Engineers Graduate Role Models # procedures to start a business # days to start a business 12% 31% 9.2% 2.6 3.1 1 10.5 Many 6 5 days Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2013, World Bank, Startup Genome 19 http://www.wired.com/promo/memorial/stevejobs/ 28 3.6 The creation of a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem Thus, using its innovative capacity the US generates many IDEs which in combination with its strong entrepreneurial capacity could generate many successful startups and consequently exits. This should lead to successful entrepreneurs, role models and mentors for the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The cycle closes when these successful entrepreneurs start again or goon the venture capital industry. The entrepreneurial ecosystems in the US (particularly Silicon Valley and Boston) are self-reinforcing loops that increases their value over time. Figure 9: The ecosystem generates a virtuous circle As a result the number of dollar invested and the number of deals has increased steadily from 2009 in Silicon Valley20. Silicon Valley Financing History: investmnent Deals and Dollars 01 2009 -3 2013 h oaivsmn ~~~~~Figure 209 9: Thesecoyte gnerte sanvituoun cirley(ur: Bnsg) h er nSiio aly(oreBIsgt e fromr 2009 in Siioalieytethsgonoe Aa rttp://wwwhebnumbers of/dollarietea-scn-datheynme fdashsicesdsedl w Figure:// 10:ins htota/ivetmrenctasilown -e h ernSlcnvalley (ore BIsgt 29 3.7 The startup process in developing countries - The Chilean example In developing countries, the startup dynamic process doesn't work as in the US. The low innovative capacity and the lack of exits obstruct the generation of roles models and the creation of new startups. However, many developing countries have generated an important stock of entrepreneurial capacity though this is not sufficient to trigger a virtuous entrepreneurial cycle. In the next section, I illustrate the differences in the innovative capacity between the US and developing countries as well as the similarities between them in terms of entrepreneurial capacity using Chile as an example. Chile is a small (17 million people) developing country in Latin America that has grown steadily from 1990 to date. Most of its growth has been base on natural resources such as copper and stable macroeconomic policies. Due to the high dependence on natural resources, the Chilean government has tried to foster innovation to migrate to a knowledge based economy (instead of the resource base economy as today). However, the entrepreneurial ecosystem is changing slowly and remains insignificant when compared to the ecosystems in the US. The next section summarizes the difficulties encountered and a comparison of the innovation capacity in Chile and the US. 3.7.1 Startups lPOs/M&A or exits over time One of the main differences is that there is no active exit market for startups. For example, no Chilean startup has done an IPO in the US (for example at the NASDAQ). Such an IPO would be a sign of technological innovation created in Chile for the world and which is valued by the market. On a broader perspective, the quantity of M&A in Latin America shows low activity: There were 144 M&A deals for the last 3 years in Latin 30 America 21 (compare to more than 450 deals in the US only in 2012). Then, VC backed startups have very low possibilities to have a successful exit (going public in local markets has historically been reserved for mature companies2 2 ). Most of the startups have to target value from the real cash flows rather than targeting exits. This makes the startup market riskier for the VC since there is no clear way to monetize the fund at maturity other than potential dividends. According to Juan Pablo Cappello, (co-founder at Patagon and one of the most respected entrepreneurs/investor in Latam) the low ratio of successful exits "are lowering the moral of future entrepreneurs". Because of the lack of exits, there is no wealthy tech entrepreneur that could form his or her own VC fund or be an important role model for aspiring entrepreneurs. Thus, the government had to foster the creation of VC through it national development agency. This is done by co-financing VC funds (in some cases the government finance 2/3 of the fund) to lower the risk of the private sector and foster the creation of these funds. Today, Chile has a total of 21 funds with a total of $ 400 million under management equivalent to 0.15% of the GDP (in the US VCs funds represents 1.3% of the GDP, almost 9 times higher). This amount is equivalent to the 0.2% of the total VC funds available in the US. 3.7.2 Innovative Capacity in Chile The second most important difference between the US and Chile is in the level of innovative capacity. Chile spends only 0.5% of its GPD on R&D 24 equivalent to $ 1.2 billion compared to$ 400 billion in the US (equivalent to 2.77% of the GDP 2 5 ). On level of patent production, Chile applied for 2,700 patents in 2011 compared to more than 500,000 in the US. Even when controlled for population Chile is well behind the US in patent production. 2 Latin American Venture Capital Association (LAVCA.com). 2 The last Chilean technological company that went public was 30 years old, with operations in 10 countries and generating an Ebitda of $ 57 million per year. 2 http://thenextweb.com/la/2013/07/06/zombies-are-about-to-invade-latin-america/#!tz55t 2 http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001899/189958E.pdf 2s WorldBank.org 31 Regarding universities, the best Chilean ones are ranked 166 and 223 worldwide in the QS ranking for 2012 compared to the US where 70% of them are world class. Even though many efforts are in progress to increase the Chilean innovative capacity2 6 the reality is that in contrast to developed countries, in Chile it is very difficult to compete on the generation of innovation capacity. The following table summarizes the innovative capacity for Chile and compares it to the US (a bigger circle represent better innovation capacity): Table 3: Innovative Capacity in the US and Chile us Innovative Capacity Chile vs US chile I-Cap I-capI Global Innovation Index Rank Innovation Capacity Index Human Capital & Research Gross Expenditure on R&D Expenditure on R&D$ billion University ranking Domestic Patentsap/bn PPP$ GDP High-tech exports University /Industry research colaboration University rank+Patents+Citations 5 1 6 2.8% 439.0 2 16.4 12.8% 3 240 46 35 70 0.4% 1.1 30 1.1 0.7% 37 60 Gil ank C rank+Patwntsl*C / 60.QHuman Capit Research Unvnsitylbdustzy research naaboration & Xi H Source: The Global Innovation Index 2013, National Innovative capacity(PorterSte ) 7-Jr echexportsHlojxedn npoiP\ Domestic Py PPP$GDP -I-Cap un US - ndteon R&D sty rankg l-Cap Chile Figure 11: Innovative Capacity in the US and Chile 3.7.3 Entrepreneurship Capacity in Chile Entrepreneurship Capacity refers to the ability of a country to start new businesses which is influenced by the local culture, government policies and processes, and education. Entrepreneurship is measured using metrics such as entrepreneurial intentions, fear of failure and time to setup a business. In Chile, a recent study by the government shows that 41% of young people think that it is possible to start a company under the current economic situation27 . Additionally, a third of young Chileans want to start a business of their own and almost 80% think that the conditions and incentives are better today than 5 years ago to start a business. 26 27 Pfizer, GDF Suez, Emerson and Telefonica will install R&D center in Chile. http://pulsosocial.com/2013/12/06/chile-uno-de-cada-tres-jovenes-piensa-en-tener-un-emprendimiento/ 32 Moreover, according to the Global Monitor Entrepreneurship entrepreneurial intention29 in Chile are higher than in the US (Chile ranks in the top 10 country with high entrepreneurial intentions). The following graph compares the entrepreneurial intention for Chile and the US. EO"Ifeteial"O,*o ~eued CVatL4SO$*"f '0 ............................................. ............. 111 -,... ........ .... ................................................. .................................... 2"u 314 50 250 0 5V 210 200 20 20ti 1 2 Figure 12: Entrepreneurial intentions is higher in Chile than Figure 13: Chile ranks top 10 in the world in in the US (Source: GEM) entrepreneurial intentions (Source: GEM) The following table summarizes key indicators for entrepreneurial capacity: Table 4: Entrepreneurship Capacity in the US and Chile Entrepreneurial intentions Fear of failure Nascent Entrepreneurs Government Entrepreneurship Programs Entrepreneurship Education Ecosystem Ranks Engineers Graduate Role Models # procedures to start a business # days to start a business us E-Cap 12% 31% 9.2% 2.6 3.1 1 10.5 Many 6 5 days Chile E-Cap 47% 28% 15.4% 3.1 2.7 20 8 Very few 7 6 day Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2013, World Bank, Startup Genome Innovative Capacity Chile vs US Entrep Blt55stlons # daystos Fear of faire - Nascent Entrepreneurs # procedures tostart Role Models Engees Grtr. -I-Cap PmE V Education US -I-Cap Chile Figure 14: Entrepreneurship Capacity in the US and Chile As it can be seen in Figure 14, the entrepreneurial capacity in Chile is similar the US. Therefore, comparing these two economies I find that though the innovation capacity in 28 http://www.gemconsortium.org/visualizations 29 Measure the percentage of people that expects to start a business within three years. 33 the US is clearly superior to Chile, the entrepreneurship capacity of both countries is similar. 3.7.4 The dynamic process in Chile Perhaps the best summary of the Chilean situation (also applied to Latin America) can be read in a recent report about Latin America by the World Bank (Lederman et al., 2014): "The region has a lot of entrepreneurs but no innovation". This lack of innovation reduces the number of startups which in turns decreases the number of successful exits which doesn't generate more role models or additional risk capital. Thus, there is no virtuous cycle generated. Figure 15: The ecosystem does not generate a virtuous circle To solve this problem and spark they entrepreneurial ecosystem, many Latin American countries are using common levers mentioned in earlier sections such as diaspora networks (for example Startup Chile), early stage-capital approach and entrepreneurial competitions as well as financial incentives to increase the R&D spending. However, these policies can take decades to have a real effect on the ecosystem. In the next section, I propose a different lever that could spin the entrepreneurial wheel. I propose that 34 focusing on copycats, developing countries can leverage the innovation developed abroad and take advantage of their entrepreneurial capacity they already have in place. 3.8 Can copycats "spin the wheel" of entrepreneurship? Instead of focusing the startups on founding IDEs, (which are difficult to generate and uncertain) developing countries could focus on developing copycats or replication of business that are already working in other parts of the world. This copycatting could provide a "fast track" in creating regional leaders that have both the lower risk and higher possibilities of being acquired by the original company (both appealing for VCs). I illustrate this point using two case studies: one from Chile and another from Argentina. 3.8.1 Case study 1: Groupon Chile - ClanDescuento Daniel Undurraga (Chilean) and Oskar Hjertonsson (Swedish-Chilean) founded Needish in 2007. It was a marketplace for integrated services using social networks that enabled people to find solutions to their local needs. For example, people could post "I need to find a plumber" and the software would contact them with the plumber in the database. People in the network could also contribute with answers and tips. Both sides of the platform win: the clients have access to local services easily and the provider could acquire clients effortlessly. Fr ez- *M Afiw) tnO 16: Nedis weg n MI *35 fiw OM Figure 16: Needish webpage in 2009 35 During 2008-2009, they quickly grew the user community but were unable to monetize the traffic. In early 2010, they were running out of cash and had to travel to the US to obtain more VC funding (some of their initial VC was from the US). On one these visits, they noticed that Groupon was a "trending" company with impressive growth. They figured that the Groupon platform was simple and that they could reuse some of the knowledge they had developed from Needish. Thus, they decided to take one last chance, obtained a small investment from a friend and created ClanDescuento, a Chilean Groupon copycat which was launched in early 2010. Figure 17: ClanDescuento webpage which is very similar to Groupon's page The bet paid off when 4 month later Groupon acquired ClanDescuento (CD) for an undisclosed amount. The news was featured in the most important Chilean newspapers. Figure 18: ClanDescuento's pages when acquired by Groupon The CD team stayed with Groupon with the mission to expand the Groupon model to the rest of Latin America (except Brazil). The CD team was successful and soon after the Groupon IPO in 2011 they left the company. 36 After leaving the company one of the co-founder of CD created a new VC fund for Latin America called Nazca Ventures. Recently, they announced a $ 1.3 million investment 30 in Nubelo3 l a Latin American copycat of ODesk or Elance (both successful platforms to hire freelancer professional online). W* r the, irst foy-stagg s~gkonat v*ar CIO, IIS$0 t.$It# hOI.tMI 0td t l -It to aoatl.WOO4a,%*rnm.IoQ cgpfttjfma ta8r*,3 to Ltin AMONrC a 00n.. U' an .r.I* b0. tQ,0 ~., t N P ctca. fPt -. W Figure 19: Nazca Ventures webpage Thus, in this case a copycat spun the wheel: it generated 3 wealthy entrepreneurs (by Chilean standards), created important role models (because the deal was widely publicized in the Chilean media), created a new VC fund "by entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs" and also created mentors with international experience. Moreover, the new VC firm started a second loop with their investment in Nubelo which is a copycat of oDesk or Freelancer for Latin America. 30 http://pulsosocial.com/en/2013/12/02/with-usl-3m-investment-nubelo-has-big-plans-for-the-u-s-and- brazil/ 31 http://www.nubelo.com/ 37 SdV{ Fv& Figure 20: Copycats can spin the entrepreneurial ecosystem 3.8.2 Case study II: Mercado Libre Argentina Marcos Galperin founded Mercado Libre (NASDAQ ticker symbol: MELI) in 1999 while finishing his MBA at Stanford Business School. His idea was to create the eBay for Latin America based on: 1) internet penetration was low in Latina America but was increasing rapidly, 2) the market of 550 million people and a combined GDP similar to China. Between 1999 and 2000 Marcos consolidated a team with strong backgrounds: Table 5: Background of Mercado Libre's cofounders Education Previous Nicolas Szekasy M BA Stanford CFO Pepsico Stelleo Tolda M BA Stanford Lehamnn Bothers Francisco Ceballos MBA Stanford Santander Bank Daniel Rabinovich Stanford Executive P. Oracle Martin Lawson Stanford Executive P. Deloitte Source Author 38 In May 2000, they closed a venture capital round for $ 55 million from JPMorgan, Hicks Muse Tate and Furst, Goldman Sachs, GE Capital and Banco Santander. The platform was very similar to eBay's: ._ ..... .. . ..... Mawr -L t%___ 'k- 40 Figure 21: MercadoLibre and eBay (Source: Webarchive) However during the early days they had to compete against more than 50 similar sites. Among these were mercadomania, 123vendido.com, 123remate.com, 123vendo.com, comercio.com, ebazar.com, deremate.com and many others. Possibly the most serious competitor was Deremate.com, founded during the same year by Alec Oxenford, an ex BCG consultant and Harvard MBA. According to Marcos Galperin, MercadoLibre's CEO the main difference among these companies was execution3 2 . The years 2000 and 2001 were difficult years because of the dotcom crisis and the company almost closed. In 2001, eBay bought 19.5% of MercadoLibre and consolidated its presence in Brazil (the main ecommerce market in the continent). In 2003, it achieved 227% growth of regional sales and one year later it diversified its business with MercadoPagos (similar to PayPal). In 2005, they reached profitability and acquired their most important competitor Deremate.com for $ 40 million becoming the absolute leader 32 Interview and HBR cases about Mercado Libre. 39 for the region. In 2007, 8 years after launch, MercadoLibre completed its 1P0 with a market valuation of $ 1.6 billion. Today, MercadoLibre has a market capitalization of $ 4.17 billion. Nicolas Szekasy and Hernan Kazah, both co-founder of MELI left the company after the IPO and created Kaszek Ventures33 (KV) in 2011. During their short history, they have invested in more than 15 startups in Latin America 3 4 mostly copycats from the US such as Restorando (copycat of Opentable) or Kekanto (copycat of Yelp). The following table illustrates different investments realized by KV and the original company. Table 6: Selected Kaszek ventures investments Investments ComparaOnline Restorando Eventioz BelezanaWeb GetNinjas SaferTaxi Kekanto VivaReal Gointegro Copycat of Moneysupermarket.com Opentable Evenbrite Beautystoponline TaskRabbit Eazytaxi Yelp Zillow Achievers Oppa MadeiraMadeira PedidosYa/Ja PetLove Design Public Build.com GrubHub Wag.com Serie Series A&B Series A&B Serie A Series B Series A Series A&B Series A&B Series A&B Series A Venture Round Series A Series A Series A Source: http://www.kaszek.com/ The two examples of ClanDescuento and MercadoLibre illustrate that copycats can be very successful and even more important can spin the entrepreneurial wheel and develop the ecosystem. 33 34 http://www.kaszek.com/ For more details on investment see http://www.crunchbase.com/financial-organization/kaszek-ventures 40 Figure 22: Copycats can spark the virtuous cycle In the following section, I present the successful case of Rocket Internet which has followed a copycat strategy (they are known as the "clone factory"). 3.9 An example of a "Clone Factory" 3.9.1 The story of Rocket Internet, a successful clone factory (so far) 35 In 1998, the German Samwer brothers came to the US to do internships at different companies. They realized that many internet businesses that were successful in the US were not present in Europe. They contacted eBay's management offering them to launch the portal in Germany but received no response (Kerr, Thor and Brownell, 2012). They decided to launch this portal by themselves and in February 1998 they launched Alando, the eBay for Europe, financed with a $ 1.4 million initial investment. This section is based on numerous magazine articles: Wired, VentureBeats, Pulso Social, Techcrunch and others. 3s 41 Figure 23: Alando.de and eBay in 1999 (Source: PcMag and Techno.net) The site went online on March 1, 1999 and was rapidly successful: Less than 100 days after launch on May 30, 1999 eBay acquired Alando.de for $ 43 million 36. According to Holger Ernst, a professor of technology and innovation at WHU this acquisition "had a major impact on the entrepreneurial scene in Germany. [The students] they all wanted to be like the Samwers". After leaving eBay in 2000, they founded Jamba which provided content for mobile phones. In 2004, the startup was purchased by Verisign for $ 273 million in shares and cash 38 . The Samwer brothers left the company to create their own venture capital firm: the European Founders Fund. Through this fund they invested in a variety of clones: * Frazr which was a German clone of Twitter. " MyVideo, was a German clone of YouTube which was sold for $ 36 million. * StudiVZ, a Facebook clone which was sold for $ 112 million. In 2007, Oliver Samwer and his brothers created Rocket Internet with the objective of creating a new kind of incubator which would provide cash, technology, clever people and experience. The goal was to quickly copy promising business models and scale them as fast as possible: "Our goal is to build a global galaxy of firms with Rocket at the center"39 36 http://partners.nytimes.com/ibrary/tech/99/09/biztech/technology/22mcgr.htm 37 38 http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2012/04/features/inside-the-clone-factory http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/03/business/worldbusiness/03iht- brothers.htm?pagewanted=all&_r=O 3 Oliver Samwer - The Economist, January 18, 2014. 42 The model of Rocket Internet is to clone successful business models and launch them in Europe or emerging countries. To execute, they hire MBA from top schools with consulting background who are given a co-founder title, equity and a competitive salary. For co-founders it's a safer way to entrepreneurship: less equity, less risk and a probability of high return. While most of the execution is done by the team on the ground, the technology development and marketing activities are done at the central Berlin office leveraging code and user experiences. The main exit strategy is to sell the company to its rivals or competitor as it did with eBay. The model can summarized as follow: Table 7: The Rocket Internet model Equity to CEO/Cofounders CEO Salary CEO Profile CEO leadership Rocket Internet 0.5%-10% Similar to BCG, Bain, McKinsey Post MBA Wants to be "light" entrepreneur (with safety net). Focus on execution and short-term Work under pressure High work capacity (hours) Targeted Companies Target market of $ 1B Operational/Logistical experience Quick growth Replicate Operations Strong in-house development team (shared) Centralized HR and marketing RI + other VC investments Funding Source: Interviews and HBS case 9-813-121 Today, Rocket Internet controls 75 firms in 50 countries with more than 25,000 employees4 0 and $ 4 billion revenues. Some selected firms backed by Rocket Internet with successful exits include the following: 40Rocket Machine - The Economist, January 18 2014. 43 Company Aland* 2009 Online marketplace Ontine busiress network Online dating eHarmony Virtuatcurrencyforonlinegames SponsorPay Gruepon Discoat deats foi consumers 1995 2003 1998 2009 2000 irausacuion date 50 1999 6.4 2008 30% stake* 2010 no 2010 2010 1261 2003 Online astrology 2Q00 ne Founded 1999 cember.net eoarfing GratisPay 2M00 CityDeat viversum 2009 2009 Business Buyer eSay Xing Questico SoumeGtlndergtene4 Founded MontobuVmore Prce, $m 2010 dn~astakefnG~.apen Figure 24: Firms backed by the Samwers and sold to its rivals (Source: The Economist) Today, they are cloning Amazon, Zappos and others in different regions41 . For example: * Linio, copycat of Amazon in Latin America * Dafiti, copycat of Zappos in Latin America. Zalando, copycat of Zappos in Europe. Zalora, copycat of Zappos in Asia. * Wimdu, copycat of Airbnb in Europe * eDarling, copycat of eHarmony in Europe In 2012, they raised more than $ ibillion from investors such as Kinnevik, DST Gobal and JP Morgan 4 2 . Figure 25 illustrates the growth of Rocket Internet funding since 2012. 41 See the full list at: http://gigaom.com/2012/04/11/revealed-the-full-extent-of-the-rocket-clone-empire/ 42 The Economist -January 18, 2014. 44 Funding to Rocket internet Companies Aggrgate Funding vs. Top 3 Most Weli4unded companies $M, July 2012 - Judy 2013 220 600 4W 400 200 0 Jut-1 Aug-;12i Sep-12 Otl-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 noi~rafl An-23 ftb-IS Mar-33 Api-13, May-13 jun-ISJu-i Z LaMod4UL""d& Z31o, Figure 25: Rocket Internet funding over time (Source: cbinsights.com) The strength of Rocket Internet: The strength of Rocket Internet is their execution capacity. The work culture is of rapid execution, focus on short-term results and measure everything. Andrew Mason, founder of Groupon once said "What people have to realize is the idea is the easy part, and that execution is the hard part, and Marc and Oli [Samwer] are the best operators I've ever seen in my life-they're just inhuman". The most important points of their strategy and culture can be summarized in the following: 0 Targeted markets and industries: Rocket Internet only focuses on proven business models and generally in ecommerce. Most of theirs companies are focused in 4 verticals: Fashion/Apparel, Electronics and Home and Food Delivery. Most of their companies are launched in developing countries where ecommerce is still in its early days and growing fast. For example, they have launched several copycats in Brazil because of its enormous market potential and increasing internet usage. 45 II I .............. soU..... 1ay-1o 2000 01 02 0.3 04 Figure 26: 05 06 07 00 09 10 11 a........... 12 Internet users and buyers (Source: The Wall Street Journal) Quick0 launch: According to Alexander Kudlich (Managing Director of Rocket Internet) "If we see an opportunity, we do it immediately. We would never say "in Q4 we will do this. If we see something we do it now". According to Kudlich, they can launch a new company in 3 and half weeks. Most of the times these developments are done at the central office and thus experience are leveraged by previous developments (for example other ecommerce platforms). As an example, Rocket Internet launched Baramang (a Fab.com clone) in 5 countries only 6 months after the launch of the original site. * Economies of scale: One of their major advantages is that they have important economies of scale regarding the technology and knowledge when developing new ecommerce ventures. For example, when Rocket Internet started EasyTaxi in Venezuela they reused 100% of the technological platform that was used in other markets4 3 . It gave them the ability to launch very fast, save $ 500,000 (estimated cost of the platform) and thus invest more in marketing to position themselves as market leaders. Once they are already present in a country, they also leverage this advantage by helping other RI companies for a rapid set up. For example, in the case of EasyTaxi in Venezuela, they couldn't have an online payment platform because it takes more than 6 months to get authorization from banks. To solve the problem they used Linio's which already had an online ecommerce platform (they also used their office space). Interview with former employee 46 * Young Local talent: The RI office will search for local talent to execute the business 44 meanwhile developing the platform is done at the German headquarters. Most of their employees are ambitious, single, young professionals (the average is under 30), who see the opportunity to participate in high growth companies. " Measure everything: According to a former Rocket Internet employee, the company is 100% focused on metrics. Such as customer acquisition, revenues and profitability. Everything is measured and benchmarked with similar initiatives around the world. * Fail fast and quit: If a certain project is not scaling as fast as expected, RI closes the business quickly. One of their main metrics is that the business has to generate a positive contribution margin after 6 months. Failure to accomplish it will close the business. An example is OfficeFab, a business-to-business e-commerce in south Asia. The company was launched in June 2012 and closed in July 2013 despite scaling well. * Ruthless culture: Long working hours (9 to 11pm) and pressure to meet the goals are common characteristics. For example, in a mail send to collaborators Oliver Samwer said 45 : "Any one of you who does not achieve the following two goals in the next week will lose his 'Director' title". 3.9.2 The critics The Rocket Internet business model has generated many critics over time. They are often called a "clone factory" which is true for many of their startups. Others have said that "The Samwer brothers are despicable thieves. How do they sleep at night?" 46. Rocket Internet defends itself saying that they are company builders. Oliver Samwer has dais that 44 Wall Street Journal 2012 - Rocket Internet Leads the Clone War 4s http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-02-29/the-germany-website-copy-machine 46 Jason Calacanis, http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2012/04/features/inside-the-clone-factory 47 "Someone else is the architect and we are the builders" 4 7. They say that they innovate on how to execute better and faster than others48. However, the accomplishments of Rocket Internet are impressive and the best illustration of their success is the emerging copycats of their model. In Europe, accelerators such as Project A (former Rocket Internet employee 49) or Springstar are following a similar model. In Latin America IG Expansion ("focuses on replicating successful proven companies in the US and Europe"5 0) and Quasar 5' are generating similar business models. 3.10 Copycats are not easy to replicate in emerging countries In the previous sections, I have illustrated three cases of successful copycat businesses: MercadoLibre, Groupon Chile and Rocket Internet. However, replicating a business in an emerging countries pose many challenges and risks: * Legal issues across countries: The legal framework in developing countries handicaps the development of startups. For example, in Chile it can take up to 6 months to open an online account for the clients to be able to pay online because of bank regulation. In Mexico, only credit cards (which are not very common) could be used for online transactions reducing dramatically the target clients in the short/medium term. * Low barriers of entry, lot of competition: Many of these copycats have low barrier to entry to replicate and thus the market becomes crowded with "me-toos". As an example, according to Forbes, Groupon generated more than 500 copies worldwide of which 100 were in the US. Most of these markets aren't big enough for numerous players and as such most of the copycats will die. 47 Wired UK - http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2012/04/features/inside-the-clone-factory 48 Venture Beat - http://venturebeat.com/2013/06/25/german-incubator-proves-a-cone-factory-isnt-abad-thing/ 4' http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21593586-how-build-companies-kit-rocket-machine so http://www.igexpansion.com/eng/baseeng.htm 51 http://thenextweb.com/la/2013/05/12/is-quasar-ventures-the-new-rocket-internet-for-latin-america/ 48 * Logistic resources: Most developing countries don't have appropriate logistic networks. For example, the delivery distribution networks don't work which is a key aspect of ecommerce companies (i.e. how would Amazon.com work without a very efficient distribution partner such as UPS or Fedex?). " Cultural differences: Copycats have to adapt to local culture, tastes and economic regulation. In Latin America, where most countries share the same language, the culture is very different and thus copycats have learnt how to adapt their value proposition and operations for each market. For example, MercadoLibre faced very different fraud rate between countries and had to adapt its technology to solve the problems accordingly. " Risk of the original company expanding: If the original company enters the market without an acquisition the value of the copycat would probably go down to 0. This is one of the most important risks that venture capital evaluate when investing in a copycat for emerging markets. For example, Sonico (a Facebook copycat that reached 75 million users) failed when Facebook expanded to Latin America * 52 Limited market potential: Most of the time the copycats have a geographical limitation. As Eric Archer of Monashees Capital, a Brazilian VC firm says "With innovation you have a global upside, but with copycat innovation you have geographical limits's. MercadoLibre, despite of being one of the most successful copycats in Latin America is limited to Latin America and thus has a market valuation of 1.6 billion whereas eBay has a market capitalization of 71 billon. Consequently, copycatting has many advantages such as reducing the overall business risk (because the model has been proved elsewhere) but also has many market specific risks such as cultural difference, market size limitation and risk of the original company expanding in the local market. 52 http://www.economist.com/node/21556269 s3 http://www.economist.com/node/21556269 49 3.11 Conclusion part I Business replication is not free of risks for the entrepreneurs or investor. It may, however, present an attractive approach to nurture the entrepreneurship ecosystem in emerging countries by adapting proven business models to local realities and increasing the possibility of exit for investors. The cases of Clan Descuento and MercadoLibre, illustrate the success that these copycats can achieve. They provide a real example of the impact for the local entrepreneurship ecosystem by creating role models and starting a virtuous cycle, similar to the one encountered in Silicon Valley. Some critics argue that copycatting reduce innovation in emerging countries by providing the "incorrect" example (to copy instead of innovating). For example, according to Loic LeMeur "[Rocket Internet] is killing innovation in Europe. It's telling young entrepreneurs that the ideal way to make money is by copying something that works in the US, then selling it back to the original." 5 4 Additionally, in some cases, fostering business replication has as a consequence of creating tens of low quality startups that end up flooding the market making people reticent of using their services and thus making people more skeptical about certain technologies. For example, many clones of Groupon had problems fulfilling their order in Latin America and finally not delivering the service. This affects negatively the development of ecommerce because it slows the cultural transformation that the country needs. Overall, I argue that when copycatting is properly done it can be used as a complementary lever to increase the dynamism of the entrepreneurship ecosystem. Copycats have demonstrated their value in generating benefit for these emerging countries such as in the creation of role models, generating more would-be entrepreneurs, development of startup infrastructure (logistics and distribution) and teaching entrepreneurial capabilities by learning by doing. In the next section I focus on the common characteristics of these copycats in Latin America. s4 http://www.wired.co.uk/ 50 4 Analysis of Latin American Copycats - Principles for better copycatting (Part II) In part II, I focus on a follow-up question. If successful copycats can foster the entrepreneurial ecosystem in emerging countries, what are the characteristics that make them successful? Is there are a set of principles that could be applied to improve the probabilities of success and thus the impact on the entrepreneurial ecosystem? The goal of the second part is to find answers to these questions based on the analysis of 120 copycats in Latin America for the past 15 years. The structure of Part 11 is the following. First, I describe the methodology used to build the sample data for the Latin American copycats. Then, I explain the operationalization of the variables such as Execution Capacity and Industry Experience for the founding team. The main findings is that the number of copycats is growing over the years and the lag time (time between original company founded and copycat founded) is decreasing (i.e. copycatting is happening faster). Another important finding is that most of the copycats studied were founded by very skilled people (more than 50% have MBA abroad from leading US business schools) and are in highly visible industries such as business to consumer markets (i.e. in contrast to Business to Business companies). Base on this analysis, I created Logit and Ordered Logit models to quantify the most important variables that affect the odds of success of a copycat. The main finding is that Execution Capacity (which is a characteristic of the founding team) and businesses who have a "Link to local Businesses" (which is a characteristic of the business) are the most important variables for the copycat success. For example, all other thinks been equal, each variable (by itself) will increase the odds of success from approximately 55% to 75% Based on this analysis and combined with interviews, I synthesize the knowledge in 9 principles that increase the odds of copycatting success. Finally, I summarize the findings 51 on a simple 3 step framework for copycatting: 1) Identify trends, 2) Choose an idea, 3) Execute. 4.1 The method The following section explains how the data was obtained and the method used to code the variables. 4.1.1 The Sample The data for my study comprise 120 copycats created in Latin America between 1999 and 2013 (see Appendix 5 for complete dataset). These copycats were obtained according to the following methodology: a. I searched into the portfolios of the most relevant venture capital firms of Latin America. Some of them are Monashees Capital, KaSZeK Ventures, Redpoint e.ventures and others. b. Searched for copycats in all the major technological blogs and magazines. Some of the one used were: startupi.com.br, pulsosocial.com, techcrunch.com, webprendedor.com, startups.ig.com.br, venturebeat.com, thenextweb.com/la (particular edition for Latina America, the monthly section of news about the region was particularly useful. I.e.: January in Latin America: All the tech news you shouldn't miss from the past month 55 ). c. For each copycat I identified the original company. For example, MercadoLibre was a copycat of eBay. This was done using again blogs, company websites and in some cases the Internet Wayback Machine56 . d. For every copycat I searched for its most recent milestone. This was done by looking into local or regional news, blogs, Crunchbase5 7 and Startup Dealbook ss http://thenextweb.com/insider/2014/02/01/anuary-latin-america-tech-news-shouldnt-miss-pastmonth/#!ubVlg s6 The Wayback Machine is a digital archive of the World Wide Web and other information on the Internet created by the Internet Archive, a non-profit organization, based in San Francisco, California. The service enables users to see archived versions of web pages across time (Source: Wikipedia). 52 Brazil 58 . The most relevant milestones were a form of exit such as acquisition or IPO (as MercadoLibre did in 2007), closing the business or raising capital. e. For every copycat I identified its founder/cofounders using news and primarily through Linkedln. Based on the Linkedin profile information I obtained background information on their education and previous business experience. Thus, the original data collected for all the firms was the following (an example of Mercado Libre is provided for illustration purposes): Original 0riginal Brief Company Company Description Copycat Name Founded eBay 1995 Online auctions Mercado Ubre Year Copycat Founded 1999 Recent Milestone Year Milestone Founder Names IPO 2007 Marcos Galperin, Nicolas Stanford MBA Szekasy, Hernn Kazak, Stelleo Tolda, etc Nasdaq for 1.6 bi Educational Background Business Background McKsinsey, Pepsico, Lehman Figure 27: Example of dataset used for the analysis The data was complemented by interviews with entrepreneurs of different copycats in Latin America. I interviewed formally and informally approximately 15 entrepreneurs 59 and business leader from 4 Latin American countries which had/have participation in a wide range of startups (successful, not successful) and capital firms (VC, angel investors). 4.1.2 The Variables Based on the sample, I coded certain variables such as Success, Experience in startup and others. The list of variables created and the description of the coding process is the following: Success - (number 0 to 5): Measures how successful a copycat is (as of February 2014). The criteria used for the success rates were the following: Success codification Criteria (these are OR criteria) 5 - Very Successful * IPO. CrunchBase which is a database of technology companies and start-ups, which comprises around 500,000 data points profiling companies, people, funds, fundings and events (Source: Wikipedia). 58 Dealbook Brazil is a crowdsourced database for the entrepreneurial community in Latin America. 57 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=enUS&key=OAtrBPNMQBfOldEphVO4yayhTXdyZzNEYTQzTS lrRXc&hl=enUS&gid=13. Recently the website was updated becoming http://dealbook.co/. 59 See Appendix 2 for list of people. 53 * * * 4 - Successful 0 * * * 3 - Average 0 * 2 - Below average * * * * 1 - Not successful 0 * 0 - Failure * " Too soon to know these copycats are not included in the analysis because there is uncertainty about their success. * Acquisition by corporate company or more than $ 20 million. More than 1,000 employees and leaders in the region. Example: Mercado Libre, which did IPO in 2007 for 1.6 billion. Acquisition by competitor or corporate company for less than $ 20 million. Raised more than $ 15 million in VC money from prestigious funds. Leader in the industry or high growth. Example: Clan Descuento, which was acquired by Groupon. Raised between $ 3 and 15 million (or 30 million for Rocket Internet). Example: SaferTaxi which raised $ 5 million after SUP Chile program. Seed or angel round. VC for less than 3 million from local investor Local startup Example: Workana (freelance platform) which raised 500K in seed money. No traction and growth Small seed money from local investors Example: Mangacorta, which received fund from Angel investors without generating traction. Closed Example: Shoes4you which closed in 2013. Founded less than 2 years ago and raised money from VCs, generating traction. Years of experience (number, 0 to 25): Corresponds to the number of years of working experience that the founder had when he/she started the company. This was done using LinkedIn profiles for each founder. When a company had more than 1 founder then the average was taken. 54 Experience in industry (binary: Yes or No): Measures if the founder(s) had experience in the industry where they created the startup. For example, Mercado Libre's cofounder didn't have experience in ecommerce or online retailing. In contrast, Bod Rossato from Viajanet.com (copycat of eDreams.com, online travel agency) worked at CarlsonWagonlit (one of the world biggest travel agents) and Decolar.com the most successful discount online travel site in Latin America previous to found the company. Startup experience (number: 0, 1 or 2): Measures the experience in previous startups for the founders. The variable was coded as follows: Startup experience 0 - No experience 1- Some experience 2 - Experienced Criteria 0 Never worked for a startup * Never been a board member for startup * Example: Marcos Galperin which had experience in Goldman Sachs. 0 Founded a previous startup which was not successful 0 Worked for a startup * Advisor or investor to startups * Example: Alexis Caporale who launched a startup that was not successful. * Successful entrepreneur, previous exit. * Founded/co-founded startup * Example: Kimball Thomas who before founding babay.com.br cofounded pooltable.com. Corporate experience (number 0, 1 or 2): Measures the experience of founders in the corporate world (no startup experience) using LinkedIn profiles. The criteria are the following: Corporate experience 0 - No experience Criteria * * * 1 - Some experience * * Spent most of work life in startups Started company without experience Example: Felipe Henriquez, Clan Descuento who didn't have corporate experience before creating his company. Worked in a middle size company before creating startup. Example: Javier Cohen who worked in middle size 55 2 - Experienced 0 * * media company before creating copycat. Experience in establish companies, most of the time multinationals. Experience as a consultant in prestigious firm (McKinsey, BCG, etc.). Example: Alec Oxenford who worked at BCG prior to founding Deremate. MBA variable (number 0, 1 or 2): Measures whether the founders did an MBA using the Linkedin profiles. The criteria are the following: MBA? 0 -no MBA 1 - Local MBA / part time 2 - International MBA Criteria 0 No MBA education at all. 0 Local business education. * Part-time business education. * Full-time international MBA. Execution Experience (binary 0, 1): This variable captures the capacity of execution of the founder by merging the 2 previous variables (MBA and Corporate Experience). This is based in the fact that corporate experience and MBA provide to people a transversal set of capacities focused on execution. The score were tabulated using the following formula: Execution experience 0 1 Criteria 0 Sum of MBA+Corporate Experience <= 2 0 Sum of MBA+Corporate Experience > 2 Complexity (number 1, 2, 3): This variable measures the complexity of the strategy as defined by Rivkin (2000) and Simon (1962) which takes into account the number of decisions that the strategy conveys and the interrelations among them. As an example, Eventioz (copycat of Eventbrite) has a very simple strategy since it is an online platform that link providers with suppliers. However, Officenet (copycat of Staples) has both the online component as well as the operations to solve making the business more complex and interrelated. 56 Link with local business (binary 0, 1): This variable measures the relationship that the startup has with local partners. For example, a Groupon copycat has to develop direct relationships with local business to generate deals that later will be published on the platform (Link with local business = 1). In contrast Idea.me (a Kickstarter copycat) doesn't have a strong link with local business since both provider and customers will interact through the platform (Link with local business = 0). Observability (binary 0, 1): This variables measure Rivkin's barriers to imitation which states that more observable strategies are easier to copy. Observability is related to ability for aspiring entrepreneurs to try the service/product, talk to providers, talk to customers, observe the processes, etc. For example, Groupon's process is fairly observable because all actors can be easily reached and the process followed. However, Vostu (which develop online gaming) is less observable because most of the value is generated inside the company without observing the development process (not access to their development strategy or code). 4.2 Characterization of the copycats studied The following section presents the characterization of the f the copycats studied providing information on what has been mostly copied, where (in which country), when and by who. 4.2.1 What has been mostly copied? The vast majority of copycats are ecommerce businesses that use an online platform to provide their services. Usually, these copycats are web platforms that generate an online marketplace which in some cases are complemented with operations. For example, Eventioz (a copycat of EventBrite) is a web platform that helps event organizers to administer their events: it connects people who organize events with people that want to attend to the event. Their service is limited to the online world. In contrast, many ecommerce copycats expand their services to the physical world having to master 57 operations. For example Dafiti, an online shoe store, has the online marketplace but also goes into operations by delivering the purchases to the clients. Why most of the copycats are online platforms? In Table 8 I analyze different industries through the lens of Rivkin's barriers for imitation (Rivkin, 2000). Table 8: Barriers for imitation across industries Sectors Barrier for imitation Capacity/Spatial preemption Switching costs Poor access to inputs Dificult to distribute Lack of brand Inexperience with similar technology Specific knowledge Patent Protection Complexity of strategy Lack of templates/information Inability to observe in use Investment required to MVP* lime required to develop MVP* Regulatory issues* Based on Rivkin, 2001 *Added by author The software platform and applications has the lowest barriers for imitation. In today's world, creating a web platform to provide a service is easier due ever thank to the building block architecture that software has adopted. For example, an ecommerce platform can be easily created using Amazon Web Services for online servers and Magento (http://magento.com/) or Shopify (http://www.shopify.com) to build the payment engine. It is therefore easy to test your page online using services such as UserTesting (http://www.usertesting.com/). As an example, ClanDescuento (Groupon copycat), launched its site only after a couple of months of development and launched in several cities at the same time. Thus, it is extremely cheap to develop a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) that can be tested for real in the market. The trial and error cycles is much faster than physical 58 products, lowering the barriers to entry and increasing the probability of finding a market fit 6. Consequently, it is easy to find the Arrow Core (Arrow 1962) which is the "what, how and where should the replicated be trying to replicate". This explains why most of the copycats are software platforms and ecommerce and no company is found in other industries such as biotechnology or consumer products. 4.2.2 Where are copycat developed? Most of the copycats in Latin America are developed in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Chile. The distribution of the copycats studied is the following: Distribution of Copycats in Latin America Uruguay Colombia 2% 2% Figure 28: Distribution of the copycats in Latin America This result is consistent with the size of the opportunities in Latin America. Brazil has the highest internet user base (88.5 million) with a 46% penetration. According to eMarketer, Brazilian ecommerce will grow to 31 billion by 2016 (doubling 2012 figures) which will represent more than 60% of Latin America6 1. As an example, MercadoLibre generates more than 50% of its regional sales in Brazil 62 . http://www.economist.com/news/specia-report/21593580-cheap-and-ubiquitous-buiding-blocks-digitalproducts-and-services-have-ca used 61 http://www.fnbox.com/research-latam-13.php 62 http://thenextweb.com/la/2012/07/24/forrester-brazil-set-to-remain-the-leading-e-commerce-market-in6 latin-america/#!xwBlN 59 Brazil is followed by Mexico (42 m users, 37% penetration and sales of 8 billion by 2016) and Argentina (28 m users, 66% penetration and sales of 7 billion by 2016). Chile is a smaller market but with one of the highest levels of internet penetration in the region. summ "- mi Pwoa e 9rsiI momM 2 1@ v1 2wu 201 wie4 w'5 2 51223 $1625 S1941 523.07 $27A7 S29A2 : U02~ U2$.W$5$584$67$7.74 1 4.2.3 When were they founded? Most of the copycats studied have been created in the last 6 to 7 years and the time to copy has decreased over time. For companies created in the '90 in the US it took an average of 12 years to copy in Latin America. For example, Hotel Urbano in Brazil (which is a copy of Hotel.com) was created in 2011 whereas Hotel.com was founded in 1999. In contrast, for the original companies created between 2004 and 2009 the time to copy decreased to 3.2 years. For example, Groupon was founded in 2006 in the US and was copied 4 years later (in 2010) in Brazil by Peixe Urbano (the most successful copycat of Groupon in Latin America). This acceleration of copycats is consistent with the available information (for example stratupi.com.br similar to Crunchbase in the US), the maturity of the markets and the ease of creating these startups. 60 lime to copy in years # of copycats 60 14 50 10 ^--^-- 10 - 30 20 - -------------------- ofcopycts ----------Time to copy in Vears 6 - -...... --------- ------- 4 10 1 0 - 20 1997-2007 2007-2D10 Figure 30: Copycat year of founding 20 --- -- 2 190&200D 2(10-2D13 20DO-2004 ----- -0--- 2OD4-2009 2010t2D13 Figure 31: Time in years to copy 4.2.4 Who were the founders and how successful were the copycats? On average copycat founders have 7.2 years of experience prior to founding the copycat: Year of experience prior to copycat 45 ---- 35_ 2030 S25-U-.. - - m-- ............ - --- - -- - -- - ---- -------------------------------------------- 15 10 ..... - ---- 0 3 6 9 Yews 12 15 18 21 of expedence Figure 32: Year of experience prior to found copycat Other characteristics of the group are the followings: * 98% of the founder had university degrees either in Latin America or the US. 0 56% of the founders have an MBA. Of these more than 50% of them have MBA from top 10 Business Schools in the US, such as Stanford, Harvard and MIT. * 66% had corporate experience (either consultants or experience in big corporations such as LG, Oracle, etc). * 36% had prior startup experience. * 73% of the cofounders didn't have prior experience in the industry where they developed the copycat. For example none of the Mercado Libre's founder had experience in neither ecommerce nor online retailing. 61 How successful were these startups? The distribution is the following: 0 is not successful and 5 is very successful (IPO or acquisition): Success Frequency 45 ---- 40 35 .30 - 125 - -- __ -------- _-- ---- W9 20 15 15 20 0 0- Not successful 1 2 3 4 5 -Very Successful Figure 33: Success distribution of copycats 4.3 Statistical analysis of the copycats In the following section, I use a logistical model to calculate the impact of different variables on the odds of success for a particular copycat. 4.3.1 The model In order to analyze the factors that influence the success of copycats, I built a logistical model to predict its probability of success or failure. I built a first model that uses as dependent variable a binary outcome: success or failure. I also refined the Logit model using an ordered logistical model using a dependent variables with 3 levels: High success, Medium success and Failure. Both models estimate the odds of been successful (p/(1-p)). The form of the model is the following: Log (T) = fl0 + Ih.X 1 + fl 2 .X 2 + Where p is the probability of creating a successful copycat and the independent variables are different factors that want to be tested (the list of variables are explained in the next section). 62 In a Logit regression the beta coefficients represent the variation of the log-odds of the dependent variable. For example, if beta is +1.5 then we expect that for a one-unit increase in the related variable it will increase the log-odds of the dependent variable. The variation of the odds are calculated using eft. For the analysis I used the following independent variables (see appendixes for independent variable correlation matrix): number in years " Year of copycat created " Years of experiences previous copycat - * Startup experience, 0/1/2 - 63 categorical variable * Execution capacity, 0/1 - categorical variable " Experience in industry, 0/1 - categorical variable * Complexity, 0/1/2 - categorical variable * Link with local business, 0/1 - categorical variable * Observability of the original company, 0/1 categorical variable - number in years 4.3.2 The results As explained earlier I run both a regular logistical regression and an ordinal logistical regression. The latter is used when the dependent variable has more than two categories and each category have a meaningful sequential order where a value is higher than the previous one 64. The summary of the two models used is the following (see Appendix 4 for detailed results): 6 Factor variable refers to categorical variables. See: Introduction to SAS. UCLA: Statistical Consulting Group. From http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/sas/notes2/. 6 https://www.princeton.edu/-otorres/Logit.pdf 63 Table 9: Model description Model 1 Logit Model 2 Ordered Logit Observation 102 (excluded observations with success "too soon to know") 102 (excluded observations with success "too soon to know") Dependent variable Success - binary 0/1 Success - three stages: high, medium, failure Independent variables Same Same Model The main results for the two models are the following (see 0 for detailed results): Table 10: Summary of results for Logit and oLogit model oLogit Logit Number of obs. Model significance 102 0.000 LR chi2 44.29 102 0.000 44.05 Odds** Significance*** industry Experience 1.668 5.301 Coeficient* 0.965 -0.355 0.008 1.086 0.039 0.931 0.092 Complexity 2++ 0.986 2.681 0.225 0.278 1.321 0.598 1.178 0.848 Variables Coeficient* Execution Capacity Year Founded Link wit local business Complexity P Startup Experience 1++ Startup Experience 2++ Observability Year Experience * from regression analysis in Stata 1.879 -0.412 1.196 Odds** Significance*** 6.550 0.662 3.305 0.013 2.626 0.046 0.701 2.963 0.000 2.537 0.113 0.013 -0.608 0.544 0.658 0.164 0.962 2.618 0.197 0.472 1.604 0.373 7.103 0.125 0.471 0.966 1.221 3.391 0.397 -0.008 1.487 0.085 0.486 0.883 1.960 -0.67 0.004 0.512 1.004 0.992 ** = exp (coeficient) *** from Stata analysis +generated because of factor variables with 3 stages. The odd ratios can be ranked and illustrated according to the significance and level (significant variables are dark colors; insignificant variables are in light colors): 64 Odd ratios for copycat success predictor Odd ratios for copycat success predictor StartupExpuid2ce2 Link wit localbusiness Execution Capacity StartupExperience 2 Execution Capacity Industry Experience Link wit local business Complexity 2 :3 Startup Experience 1 Year Experience Year Founded I complexity 3 I observabilty 0 Industy ExPerience Startup Experience I Observability Comnplexityl Complexity3 YearExperience Year Founded 2 4 6 Odd ratios (Regular Loglt Model) 8 Figure 34: Odd ratios ranking for Logit model 0 1 Odd rato 2 3 (ordered Loit Modal) 4 Figure 35: Odd ratio ranking for oLogit model On both models the variables Execution Capacity and Link with local business are significant and have the most important odds ratios (6.55 and 3.3 respectively). These numbers represent the odds of Success when these variables increase by 1 unit given that the other variables in the model are held constant. In consequence, if the odds ratios are above 1, then an increase in one unit in the independent variable will increase the odds of success. Conversely, when the odd ratios are below 1 and increase of one unit in the independent variable decrease the odds of success. Thus, for Execution Capacity we can say that for a one unit increase (Execution Capacity going from 0 to 1) we expect an increase of 1.879 in the log odd (log (p/(1-p)) or a 6.55 in the odds (p/(1-P)) of being a successful copycat given that all the other variables are held constant. In the case of Execution Capacity, an increase of 1 will increase the chances of success from 53% to 80%65. In the case of Link with local businesses and increase of 1 (no link with local business versus link with local business) increase the chances of success from 57% to 74% maintaining other variables constant. The variable Year Founded corresponds to the year in which the copycat was founded. This variable is significant in both models; however, the value is small compared to the other significant factors. An increase of 1 in the year of foundation (i.e. 2009 to 2010) will decrease the odds of success by 0.66, an effect which is 10 times smaller than the Execution Capacity. 6s See 0 - Appendix 4: Logit models results for Stata results. 65 4.3.3 Robustness I tested different models to check robustness of the results when variations are introduced. I studied the following variations: * Models 2, 3 and 4: I eliminated independent variables such as Year of Experience, Observability of the original company and Complexity of the strategy. I tested eliminating Observability and Complexity because of their subjective measurement. * Model 5 and 6: I eliminated 25% of the data and also tested it without the previous independent variables. This robustness was designed to check the effect of the size of the sample in the results. * Model 7: We eliminated 18 observation of copycats founded before 2008 and tested it without previous independent variables. This robustness analysis was designed to check consistency of the results over time. The results with the odd ratios and the P-values for each model and variables are the following (see 0 for detailed results): Table 11: Odd ratios and P-value for robustness check Base Model Model 2 Withou: Year Experience Odds s: LoEtexi2d.y Coinlexity 3 d Year Experience Palue 0.54 0.51 0.23 2.82: 0 0.61 0.47 0.49: 1.00 0.97 vau 0.191 0.719 0.445 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Withou: Withou: With 25% less With 25% less Without Observability Observability, observations observations - observation & Year Exp Year Exp & (random) without before 2008 Complexity Observability, without Year Exp & Observability, complexity Year Exp & Odds P values Odds:P values Odds P valesds dsPvus 3.3 1.15 0.125 0 2.14 0.61 0 . I 0.490 0.746 0 834 0.92 0.521 To illustrate the results we plot the odd ratios for the most important variables for the different models: 66 Odd ratios and variables per model 16.00 14.00 m Base Model 12.00 10.00 - 8.00 - -- - - - - -- -----400 4.00 t-- - - - - - - K----Model 2 - - - - - *M odel 3 m Model43 a Model 4 *Model 5 a Model 6 - mModel 7 00 Execution Capacity Link w/ local Year Founded Industry business Experience Startup Experience 2 Figure 36: Variability of the odd ratio for different models 4.3.4 Analysis of the results Based on these results the main conclusions are the following: * Across all models the most relevant variables to predict the success of a copycat are: Execution Capacity, Link with the local Business and Year Founded. * Consistent across the models that an increase in odds for Execution Capacity of 1 is on average 50% higher than the Industry Experience. * Startup experience 2 (which correspond to a successful previous entrepreneur) is significant in most of the cases with ratios similar to Execution Capacity. However experienced successful entrepreneurs are scarce in Latin America (less than 10% of the sample studied had a successful previous startup). * Other variables such as Year of experience before creating the copycat, startup experience, the complexity and observability of the copycats are not significant across all models. * Results are consistent across different models. However important changes are observed when the sample is reduced by 25% even though the main relationships hold. 67 4.4 Principles for copycatting Based on the statistical results and on the interviews, I propose 9 principles for successfully copycatting business models in emerging countries: Principle N*1: Search and follow trends Normally, the diffusion of an innovation follows the same pattern over time. As Everett Rogers noted in Diffusion of Innovations (1962) a diverse group of consumers will adapt a new innovation at certain rate which is slow at the beginning (innovators & early adopters), accelerate when the majority adapt it and slows when it reaches maturity. The adoption curve is widely known as S-curves and an example of adoption of different innovation is provided below: of,.) HustOwids P 100 ....- l .. ... cow .. ... ...... CW Saw* 30 i0 T~~ ~za Io I=n 1940 torn 1on Somrts WAnn BU.*C(~Sa, lUw 2Oo fls~eqs Figure 37: Adoption curve for various products in the US (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 1995). These S-curves holds internationally and thus copycats should search for patterns where developing economies are lagging behind the US or other more developed economy. For example, Officenet (copycat of Staples) realized that the office supply market would face the same consolidation that happened 15 year before in the US when OfficeMax, Staples and Office Depot changed the game and offered their products in big retail supermarkets 68 with a focus on small companies . Officenet was able to identify the trend and adapt it for Argentina quickly becoming a relevant player in the industry. Another example is MercadoLibre who identified the ecommerce trend developing in the US. In 1995, eBay was launched and became profitable after 6 months. The number of internet user was increasing at an annual rate of 70% and the value of ecommerce transactions was doubling each year. However, in 1999 (when MercadoLibre was founded), ecommerce and internet in Latin America were just starting: User penetration of internet was only 1.5% but was starting to grow quickly. Thus, Marcos Galperin (MercadoLibre's cofounder) was able to identify the ecommerce development in the region and chose to adapt one of its most successful businesses, eBay. Principle N*2: Local need One of the first steps is to make sure that the problem or need is present in the region. According to one of the founders of Quasar ventures67, they spent an important amount of time prior to launch the startup to validate that the idea responds to a need in the country. Many aspects such as maturity of the market, development of the technology have to be checked. An example is Restorando, a copycat of Opentable, which developed a first concept with 5 restaurants in Brazil and 5 restaurants in Argentina to test the market as fast as possible. Their first objective was to test the "Opentable" concept because they knew that they had the skills to develop the technology needed. Once they got the first validation that the problem solved by Opentable in the US was present in the Latin America they were able to raise VC money from Silicon Valley. In Mexico, Bebe2go (copycat of Diapers.com) started with a simple webpage with which they collected orders. Once they had the orders they went to Walmart and delivered the items by themselves68 . According to one of the founder this was a very simple and cheap way to start and test the real need of the market. 6 67 68 Conversation with cofounder and Officenet Case (HBR) Interview with cofounder. Interview with cofounder. 69 Principle N*3: Link with local businesses Copycats have an advantage when they provide services that require a direct connection with local businesses. For example, Groupon requires the platform to negotiate daily deals with local business. This is hard to do remotely for the source company, thus it increases the barriers of entry. It is easier for the local copycat to establish those links: they know the local environment, culture and language. At the same time, by entering this market and creating those links, the copycat becomes more valuable as a potential acquisition target. Frequently, the original company will acquire the copycat company to enter a certain market without having to generate connections which takes time, effort and money in an uncertain environment. For example, Staples acquired Officenet (an office 69 distributor ecommerce leader in Argentina), to "enter to Latin America" . Another example is Clan Descuento: Due to their local connection and technical capability they were able to create the relationships with local business and offer better deals than what Groupon would have been able to do by itself. Others examples are copycats of taxi services where one of the main aspects is to convince and evangelize early adopter taxis to upload their services to the novel platform. Generally the structure of a successful copycat is as follows: Local Clients Online Platform Local Business Local Business Local Business Local Business Local Business Figure 38: Structure of successful copycats 69 See SPLS 10-K filed Feb 28, 2006. 70 Based on data the variable "Link to a local business" increase the chance of success by 30% and is consistent across the analysis. To further demonstrate the point I illustrate the success of the copycat versus the link to local businesses. It illustrates that there are more businesses that have a strong link with the local economy in very successful startups. Unk with local business vs success 70% 60% 50% 0 Not Successful 40% a Below average a 130% Average 9 Above average -__ 20% Very Successful 10% 0% Link with local business Figure 39: Relationship between Link with local business and probability of success A counterexample is when companies copy platforms that don't have any link with local businesses. For example, Sonico which was once the Facebook of Latin America with more than 75 million registered users and one of the most visited site in the region (it ranked 392 in the Alexa ranking70 ). However, Sonico was a social network very similar to Facebook with no link to local business nor community except for the language (Sonico was first in Spanish and then in Portuguese). 70 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonico.com 71 Figure 40: Sonico webpage which is similar to Facebook Thus, according to the Economist and Nenad Marovac (VC behind Sonico) "Sonico got "pummelled" when Facebook arrived"7 . Another more recent example is Rocket Internet's Pinspire which is a copycat of Pinterest. According to the New York Time72 and Techcrunch, the Rocket Internet copycat has had difficulties getting traction in the markets. Figure 41: Pinterest (original) versus Pinspire. (Source: NYT) Principle N*4: Search for opportunities to tropicalize Copycat in developing countries are often said to "tropicalize" the US ideas73 because these startup have to be adapted to the local environment. As pointed out in principle 2 71 72 http://www.economist.com/node/21556269 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/technology/copycat-business-model-generates-genuine-global- success-for-start-up-incubator.html?_r=O 72 (Local need) the ideas will have to be adapted to a new environment and the challenge is to copycat ideas that will have to potential to be modified from the original (however, not excessive which could lower the possibilities of being acquired by the original company). As a former Rocket Internet in Latin America says: Adaptation provides barriers to entry that will delay the entry of the original company to the market thus, improving the value of the copycat. When Groupon acquired Clan Descuento to expand in Latin America they had already solved important operational problems such as the delivery of goods, adapted to local payments methods and to different tax systems. In Venezuela, EasyTaxi was able to adapt the payment methods with the local culture of check payment which wasn't on the scope of the original company. Linio, a copycat of Amazon with operations in Mexico, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela allow cash on delivery: You only pay when the product arrives to your home. This tropicalizes the Amazon concept by recognizing that credit and debit cards are not common so far in these countries. However, the challenge is not to over-tropicalize the original idea which could lower the value of a potential acquisition. Thus, differentiation is a difficult equilibrium that can be summarized as following: Cr 0 40 -C T* Tropicalization Figure 42: Value versus Tropicalization Principle N*5: Choose carefully the target market Most of the copycats studied can be described as having a "Business to Consumer" (B2C) model or "Consumer to Consumer" (C2C) model. In fact as it can be seen in Figure 43 73 http://www.economist.com/node/21556269 73 more than three quarters of the copycat are in the B2C category. Distribution of types of business B28 7% Figure 43: Distribution of copycats by B2B and B2C This observation is aligned with Riskin (2000) because B2C or C2C business models are highly visible. Most of the copycat studied were started because the founder observed the need and used the company's services in another country and then replicated the business model. For example, Bebe2go in Mexico stated because both the need (the cofounder was expecting their first son) and the original solution in the US (diapers.com) were visible74 . Comparaonline (insurance comparison tool) started because the founder had to buy insurance for his sister's car and was confused about the options. He then found a solution abroad which would solve his problem and replicated it for the Chilean market7 5 . However, due to its visibility these market opportunities will face higher competitions when the opportunity is important. For example, MercadoLibre (eBay's copy) had to compete against more than 50 different copies of eBay during their first year of operation. In fact, in segments that represent a billion dollar opportunity it is expected that competition will be stronger because of the entry of the major players in the industry thus reducing the possibility to compete for smaller players. For example, Buscalibre.com was founded in 2010 to become the Amazon of Latin America with an initial funding below 4 million. In 2012, Rocket Internet launched Linio to become the Amazon of Latin Interview with cofounder. 7s Techcrunch - http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/14/how-comparaonline-raised-16m-to-build-a-thrivinginsurance-comparison-service-in-latin-america/ 74 74 below 4 million. In 2012, Rocket Internet launched Linio to become the Amazon of Latin America and have invested more than 120 million over the last 2 years7 6 . Thus, smaller startups have to choose carefully the markets in which compete and take into account the possibilities that an important player can invade the market with more resources and execution capabilities. In contrast, B2B is generally more difficult to observe because it has no relationship with customers as natural persons. This might explain why only 7% of the copycats studied are oriented to business. However, these startups have been quite successful: Officenet was acquired by Staples as its entry door to Latin America , ContaAzul (copy of Intuit software for small businesses) had gone through series A and B of financing and more than 200,000 companies are using their software in Brazi178. Trabajando.com (copy of Monster.com) has become the leading platform for employment in Latin America. In summary Principle N*9 can be illustrated with the following matrix: Table 12: Advantages and disadvantages for B2C and B2B startups relative to the size of opportunity. M 0. Bigl (market ptervntoa Cpany ides(11 nFE have aMEvbntg M +loop unders2rm e Example: Shotgun cap under 25m) Might become SME but no IDE. ______ l_ Example: Shotgun moverstment/g itetioal plye Igh beoeSEbuIoE wwwdvatag:nimiedzaret/rowhm Principle N06: Use the US as a reference market 7http://lavca.org/2013/1 1/06/rocket-intern ets-mexica n-ecom merce-site-li nio-receives-new-50m investment/ 77 See SPIS 10-K filed Feb 28, 2006. 78 www.contaazul.com 75 If the final goal is to be acquired by the original company many investors79 agree that the target is to look for companies whose market valuation is around 1 billion in the US. Their logic is simple: as rule of thumb the Latin American market is a 10% of the US and thus a 100 million of market capitalization for the copycat is the number need to meet their returns. As an example, the following table shows the market capitalization at the time of creation of their copycat: Table 13: Original company's market value Original Opentable eBay Groupon Amazon Copycat Copycat founded Market Cap Resotrando Mercado Libre Clan Descuento Submarino 2011 1999 2010 1999 1.5 12 1.35 23 bi bi bi bi Sources: techcrunch, Nasdaq, ycharts However, as point out in principle N*9 the speed at which valuable ideas are copied is faster and thus sometimes making it difficult to "wait-and-see" the market valuation. An example is Eventioz, which is a copycat of EventBrite (founded 2006). By the time Eventioz was founded in 2008, EventBrite had just recently raised its series A of 3 million and achieved a market cap of 1 billion in 201380. Principle N*7: Platforms with strong network effects have done better Most of the most successful copycats in Latin America have winner-takes-it-all characteristics. These markets are characterized by having strong network effect (the size of the network is reinforced by new entrants) and difficulty in changing platforms (there is a cost of administer different platforms with similar content). For example, Mercado Libre (eBay's copycat) has these characteristics: The more people publish goods to sell on the platform the more attractive it is for other potential buyers and sellers producing a very 79 Interview with Quasar Ventures cofounder and Nazca Ventures. Techcrunch and Crunchbase. 76 strong network effects. Moreover, for sellers it becomes expensive and difficult to track different goods published in different sites generating an incentive to only choose one thus generating higher barrier to switch platforms. Principle N*8: Execution is more important than industry knowledge. Juan Pablo Capello, one of the most respected entrepreneurs and VC in Latin America, said: copycats need "bakers" more than an "artist" 81 . A baker follows a set of pre-defined instruction whereas a chef is similar to an artist who explores the unknown. Thus, copycats need "bakers" that will excel in execution. This is a key characteristic of the copycat founder which is reinforced because of the high competition that copycats face. As I have illustrated copycat are more popular where barriers of entry are low thus emphasizing the importance of execution. This empirical study has shown that execution capacity is more important that previous industry knowledge in predicting the success of a copycat. To further illustrate the point I present the differences of execution capabilities and industry experience for the top success and bottom failures in our data: Capabiitles for (Un)Successful copycats 40% 3M* - - -- 6Successful opcats 0 Unsuccessful copycats Ift Execution Capacity lnduw"y Eperinc Figure 44: Comparison of capabilities for copycats 81 http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/08/04/web-2-0-in-latin-america-why-we-blew-it-and-what-we-can- do-to-fix-it/?fromcat=all#!AcveY 77 Using a 2 by 2 matrix I illustrate the probabilities of success for each scenario. When the founder has no experience in the industry and no execution capacity the probability of being successful is 50%. If the founder has experience in the industry the probability increases to 66%. However, if the founding team has execution capacity its probability of success increases to 89%. Probability of success according to Execution canacitv and Exoerience in the Industry 100% 89% Z CL 50% NO -- 66% YES Experience In related industry Smwm~gbaswdo..tcq/bvotm49stawt. fmmo"ia1"atbm Figure 45: Success of copycat according to Execution and Experience These results are consistent with the previously described Rocket Internet philosophy that target people who are highly focused on execution but may not have any experience in the industry. Principle N*9: Speed is key As I illustrated previously, copycatting is occurring faster. In the 1990s, it took approximately 10 years to replicate the company in Latin America. According to my sample, in 2010 it took approximately 1 year to replicate the business in the region. The availability of the information and the decreasing technical difficulties to replicate business have accelerated the speed at which successful business are being copied. For example, Groupon was founded in 2008 and by 2010 it had more than 500 clones 78 worldwide and more than 100 only in the United States8 2. In Colombia, after the launch of Easytaxi two competitors were launched: Tappsi and Taxiya. Thus, in an environment of high network effect the companies' timing and execution are key. 4.5 A simple framework for copycatting Combining the principles and the data I developed a simple framework and set of questions that should be considered before starting a copycat business and before doing a more in-depth business plan. The illustration of the framework is as following: * Identify a major trend and dominant design 'Does the team have execution capabilities? 'Do you have the unique potential to foster the experience curve? How fast can you start? Figure 46: Framework for copycatting The framework's first step is to identify major trends in different industries. For example, MercadoLibre identified that ecommerce was growing strongly in the US and the trend 82 http://blog.business-model-innovation.com/2011/04/can-you-copy-business-model-groupon-and-clone/ 79 would follow in Latin America. Cumplo (a peer to peer platform) realized that money lending was following a "social" process fostered by social networks. Once a trend has been identified, the potential startup has to detect if the dominant design has emerged or is about to emerge. The objective is to minimize the development of businesses which are not consolidated and which increase the initial costs for the startup. When Groupon was copied in Latin America, the model didn't change which allowed copycats to focus on the execution rather than searching for the right model to develop. The second step is to choose an idea to replicate. The most important question is to verify that the need exist in the local markets. Many ideas developed abroad will not have an immediate application in less developed markets and sometimes will not be a need due to the market structure. For example, the "moving" business has seen many innovations in the US which has not been replicated in countries of Latin America because people don't move often due to highly concentrated business centers (more than 40% of the Chilean population live in the capital). The second most important question (for the second step) is to identify if the local startup has any competitive advantage relative to the original company. According to my findings a strong relationship with local suppliers is important. It increases the barriers of entry of the original company and thus increases the value of the startup. Successful copycats such as ClanDescuento (Groupon copycat) had a very strong link with local business because they had to find local companies that would publish their promotions on their website. Groupon most likely acquired ClanDescuento to get a faster access to these partners. A second option to increase the competitive advantage is to find ideas that need a certain adaptation to the local economy (i.e. tropicalization). The more adaptations a copycat has to make, the higher the barriers of entry will be for the original company and thus increasing the value of the copycat. The fourth question in choosing the idea is related to the market segment where to compete. Most of the copycats are either business-to-customer or customer-to-customer because these business models as well as the need are highly visible. For example, it is 80 very easy to understand how Diapers.com works and deduce their business model; an aspiring entrepreneur can easily test the solution. However, as explained in principle N*9 the main consequence is that in there opportunities there will be more competition thus providing advantage for companies with more resources and execution capabilities. In the process of choosing an idea copycats should also use the market capitalization in the US to have a reference of potential size of the startup. As a reference, the objective for VCs is to look for original companies that have a market capitalization of 1 billion with the objective of creating a copycat that will have a market capitalization of 100 million (in many business Latin America represents 10% of the US). After having identified a relevant trend and selected an idea, the aspiring entrepreneur should next focus on its execution. The first question is to ask if the founding team has execution capabilities. I defined execution capabilities by having advanced degrees such an MBA or having corporate experience (and in some cases previous startup experience). As shown by the data these capabilities seem to be more important than experience in the industry. MercadoLibre's and Deremate's success in a highly competitive industry was due to their important execution capabilities (most of them had MBA or business degrees from Stanford and Harvard and corporate experience). Next, it is important for aspiring entrepreneurs to question if they have a unique potential to learn the secrets of the original business model and fast forward the learning curve. One of the most important advantages of copycatting is to be able to re-use the knowledge developed and tested by others. If the aspiring entrepreneurs don't have access to them the copycat model loses an important advantage. For example, Officenet (copycat of Staples) was able to visit and understand most of Staples "best practice" from the beginning of the company. Mercado Libre was able to fast forward its learning curve when in 2001 eBay bought 19.5% of its shares. These are examples of companies that had unique access to valuable knowledge providing them an important advantage over other copycats and increasing their success probabilities. 81 The last question about execution is related to the speed of execution: How fast and cheap can an aspiring entrepreneur have a minimum viable product on the market. As Figure 31 showed, replicating business models is happening faster and as such speed of execution will play an important role. 5 Conclusion and future research The vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem in the US is maintained by an important virtuous circle that generates hundreds of startups and produces many exit opportunities. This virtuous circle does not work in emerging countries, especially because the innovation capacity is very low and there are no clear exit possibilities for successful startups. In this thesis I explored how local startups can spark the virtuous circle by replicating successful business models in developed countries. This strategy has the advantage of lowering the risk for the VCs and provides a higher probability of exit and a faster path to growth. In fact, the most successful startups in Latin America are copycats of US businesses. Why not foster the replication strategy? As the Economist noted "For business, being good at copying is at least as important as being innovative". In order to understand these copycats more deeply, I studied 120 cases of replicas in Latin America. Based on statistical analysis and interviews I generated 10 principles that should improve the success of copycatting. These are: 1) Search and follow trends, 2) Check for local needs, 3) Link with local businesses is the main competitive advantage, 4) Search opportunities to tropicalize, 5) Choose carefully target markets, 6) Use the US as market reference, 7) Platforms with strong network effects have done better, 8) Execution is more important than industry knowledge and 9) Speed is key. Combining these principles I created a simple framework to guide the creation of copycats in Latin America. The first step is to identify trends and dominant designs. Then, choose an idea that solve a local http://www.economist.com/riode/21554500 82 need, have a link with local businesses and can by slightly tropicalized. And finally, focus on execution, fast-forward the learning curve and act fast. These results could be improved in many directions. Here I present some ideas and directions for potential future research on the subject. First, the analysis of the copycats could be deepened by conducting interviews to the founder of every company. Most probably this would provide important insights that were not captured in the thesis. Second, the number of copycats studied was limited and can be expanded to check for new results. Third, one of the most important variables in this study is related to the "Success" variable which in some cases is subjective. The same study could be done in 2 or 3 years using the same startups when the "Success" codification will be more objective (same point applies to Rocket Internet). Another interesting study would be to compare the characteristics of the copycat founder with the characteristics of the founder of innovative companies for the region. And lastly future studies could concentrate in the replication dynamic in one vertical companies. For example, study the all the different replicas of Groupon in Latin America and understand why some of them were successful and other weren't. All in all, copycats should be considered as a potential lever to foster the entrepreneurial ecosystems of countries with low innovation capacity. This could increase the possibilities of exits as well as building more entrepreneurial capacity in the country. However, copycats are by no means simple. 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Organization 85 Appendix 1: M&A history in the US (Source: NVCA) 2004 100 2101 38 7,=7 161 4 283 36 0 34 37 4945.1 134 a 80 4,144;9 13A 11.0 19 1,48. 12338 7 12 20 3.2420 120 167.6 8 21 1619 131 2012-2 11o 201N" 208. 141 12,e 6139 95 51 4038 2011-2 37 281-3 142 43 63,4 6934.5 201-4 123 38 4,986 2-2 2M2-2 114 28 3,671.0 131.1 2012.3 2012-4 125 126 37 32 40D1 Z476 226.0 126.0 2N1 2013.2 20133 2t3-4 85 96 10 19 W4.3 A,4W.3 96A a 716.9 1792 lie 61 30 31 4,A%. -161.9 23 27 2.436.9 ZMA1 170.4 24 5,312.6 8 -m = ---123 3 34 6,V4.4 5,04 191.0 2141 M2 A 88 061 5 1.5 1247 - - 140284a irei 202 2 5,883. 475.9 11 5,32 254.g 1,682.8 Is 12 17,2279 10 0 952 ,1(7 886 1435.7 114A Z4AWA 176.1 89-6 -106.0 1 103.0 221.4 Appendix 2: Interviews The list of formal and informal interviews: * * Andy Freir, cofounder Officenet and Quasar Ventures (Argentina) Felipe Henriquez, cofounder Groupon and Nazca Ventures (Chile) * Alfredo Millan, former Rocket Internet employee (Venezuela) * Salvador Kalifa, founder of Bebe2go (Mexico) * Fernando Fishman, founder of Cristal Lagoon (Chile) * Alfredo Zolezzi, CEO of Advanced Innovation Center (Chile) * Matias de Tezanos, entrepreneur in Latin America * Susan Amat, Founder Venture Hive (US) * Patrick Summers, founder of Zurkbox (Latam) * Jose Antonio Carrasco, Dictuc (Chile) * Conversations with Sebastian Castro (cofounder of Leaf), Ari Liberman (Amazon), Israel Valentin (former entrepreneur), Martin Migoya (CEO Globant). 86 Appendix 3: Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix Descriptive variables Variable Success Yearfounded Year-experience Startupexp Corpexp MBA ExecutionCapacity Expindustry Complexity Linklocal business Observability Obs Mean 103 103 102 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 0.670 2009.019 7.127 0.466 1.029 0.816 0.515 0.262 1.447 0.563 0.786 Std. Dev. 0.473 3.586 4.894 0.711 0.880 0.872 0.502 0.442 0.668 0.498 0.412 Min 0 1997 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Max 1 2013 25 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 87 Correlation Matrix Yearfo unded Yearfound ed Year-exper ience Year-exp erience Startu pexp Execution_ Capacity Exp.in dustry Compi exity LinkI ocal busin ess Observ ability 1.00 0.21 1.00 0.14 0.29 1.00 -0.01 0.30 -0.19 1.00 0.01 -0.35 0.47 0.00 0.34 0.07 0.02 0.21 1.00 0.14 1.00 0.17 0.14 0.05 0.03 0.15 -0.09 1.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.06 -0.12 -0.08 -0.47 0.02 Startupex p Execution_ Capacity Exp_indust ry Complexity Linklocal business Observabili ty 1.00 88 Appendix 4: Logit models results Coefficients for Logit and oLogit models: VARIABLES Yearfounded Year-experience 1.Startupexp 2.Startupexp ExecutionCap Expindustry 2.Complexity 3.Complexity Link-local business Observability Constant Cuti - Constant Cut2 - Constant Observations Logit Model oLogit Model Success Success -0.412*** -0.355*** (0.155) (0.0844) 0.004 -0.008 (0.091) (0.054) 0.962 0.472 (0.746) (0.530) 1.961 1.221* (1.278) (0.708) 1.879** 0.965** (0.755) (0.483) 1.668* 0.931 (0.990) (0.588) 0.986 0.278 (0.813) -0.608 (0.527) (1.373) 1.196** (0.579) -0.670 (0.929) 827.6*** (312.2) (0.856) 1.086** (0.436) 102 Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 0.164 0.397 (0.570) -712.6*** (169.6) -710.5*** (169.5) 102 89 Coefficients for Logit model and robustness: VARIABLES ExecutionCap Link-localbusiness Yearfounded Expindustry Startupexp 1 Startupexp 2 Complexity 2 Complexity 3 Observability Yearexperience Constant (0.579) Model 2 1.978*** (0.635) 1.291** (0.569) -0.412*** -0.402*** (0.155) 1.668* (0.990) 0.962 (0.746) 1.961 (0.150) 1.345* (0.812) (1.278) (1.243) 0.986 1.039 (0.813) (0.796) -0.490 (1.360) Model 1 1.879** (0.755) 1.196** -0.608 (1.373) -0.670 (0.929) 0.004 (0.091) 827.612*** (312.156) Observations 102 1.018 (0.714) 2.194* Model 3 2.012*** (0.631) 1.298** (0.568) -0.401*** (0.151) 1.327* (0.801) 0.989 (0.712) 2.296* (1.246) 1.195 (0.779) 0.142 (1.071) Model 4 2.150*** (0.613) 1.122** (0.539) -0.426*** (0.156) 1.247 (0.772) Model 5 2.565*** (0.947) 1.207* (0.722) -0.405** (0.173) 2.478* (1.299) 1.017 1.553 (0.688) 2.605** (1.256) (0.957) 2.093 (1.389) 0.762 -0.695 (0.910) 804.610*** 853.714*** (313.273) (303.660) 103 103 103 Standard errors in parentheses 806.710*** (300.964) Model 6 2.409*** (0.739) 1.266* (0.664) -0.411** (0.162) 1.570* (0.948) 1.292 (0.840) 2.508* (1.382) Model 7 1.977*** 824.656** (324.472) 77 793.767 (493.998) 85 (0.640) 1.225** (0.564) -0.396 (0.246) 1.663* (0.895) 0.884 (0.707) 2.327* (1.295) (1.103) -0.490 (1.517) -0.228 (1.091) -0.075 (0.117) 812.887** (346.840) 76 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.l 90 Appendix 5: Complete Database Mercado Libre ebayv 1995 IOnline auctions eba 1995 Online auctions DeRemate Orbitz 2001 Internet-based travel website Despegar.com Groupon 2006 Daily deals PeixeUrbano eDreams.com 1999 Online travel agency Viajanet.com.br Staples 1986 Office supply delivery business Officenet Eastba .com 1999 Company that sells sporting goods through the Internet Netshoes.com.br PriceGrabber 1999 Price comparison BuscaPe Crai sList 1995 Online classified Olx Groupon 2008 Daily deals ClanDescuento EventBrite Hotels.com/Bookin g.com 2006 Platform to manage events Eventioz 1999 Online travel agency Hotel Urbano Amazon 1994 Online retailer Submarino Birchbox 2010 Beauty product discovery service NinaBox Birchbox 2010 Beauty product discovery service Vulev6 Birchbox 2010 Beauty product discovery service GlimBox Shopping.com 1998 Price comparison Confronte.com GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms Miorden.com BuenosairesDelive ry GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms 0 entregador GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms Jnamesa GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms MegaMenu GiltGroup 2007 Shopping club Brandsclub Z n a 2007 Social gaming company Netflix 1997 Online movie rent Vostu NetMovies.com.b r Wag.com 1998 Online store for pets PetLove Etsy 2005 Online handicrafts site Bixit Kickstarter 2009 Crowdfunding Movere.me 99Designs 2008 online graphic design marketplace LogoChef Hailo/Uber 2009 mobile Taxi apps EasyTaxi Grou on 2008 Daily deal Cuponica.com Groupon 2008 Daily deal ClickOn Grou on 2008 Daily deal Grupon Brazil Diapers.com 2005 Online retailer for babies Baby.com.br 91 Diaper.com 2005 1 Online retailer for babies Bebestore.com.br O entable 1998 Reservation for restaurants Restorando 1993 Online price comparison Compara Online 1993 Online price comparison Sossego Kekanto Moneysupermarke t.com Moneysupermarke t.com Yel 2004 City guide Birchbox 2010 Beau product discovery service QuickBooks 2002 ContaAzul is a web-based accounting SaaS platform ContaAzul Build.com 2000 Platform for building materials MadeiraMadeira Autoanything.com 1979 Acessories for cars Connect Parts Ets 2005 Online handicrafts site Elo7 Kickstarter 2009 Crowdfunding Idea.me Lendin Club 2006 Peer-to-peer loans Cumplo Making smart design furniture Oppa Desi n Public Beautystoponline Online beauty retailer Belezanaweb Amazon Moneysupermarke t.com Moneysupermarke t.com Moneysupermarke t.com 1994 Online retailer Linio 1993 Online price comparison Bidu 1993 Online price comparison Segurar.com 1993 Online price comparison Minuto Seguros Monster.com 1999 Job search Trabajando.com Zillow 2005 ViveReal Buddy Media 2007 Real Estate information 55social is the leading provider of social media marketing solutions in Brazil. Stelladot.com 2004 Trunk jewelry-show seller Sophie and Juliete AVG 1991 Antivirus Psafe Coupons.com Furniture.com & wayfair.com 1998 Discount Coupon Website CupoNation 2002 Home Furnishings Mobly GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms HelloFood Seamless 2000 Online food ordering platforms iFood (Disk Cook) GiltGroup 2007 Luxury private sales club Geelbe GiltGroup 2007 Shopping club Ventas Privadas Square 2009 Card payment Clip.mx Etsy 2005 Online handicrafts site Airu Elance/oDesk 2005 Marketplace for freelance Nubelo Stubhub 2000 Marketplace to Buy and sell tickets Ticketbis Hailo/Uber 2009 mobile Taxi apps SaferTaxi Zappos 1999 Footwear and fashion eCommerce Dafiti 5SSocial One Kin Lane 2009 online shopping club for Home & Living WestWing JustFab 2010 Fast-fashion e-commerce brand Olook Fiverr (TaskRabbit) 2008 Marketplace for services Getninja.com.br EventBrite 2006 Platform to manage events Boletia.com 92 Moneysupermarke t.com 1993 Online prnce Zillow 2005 Real Estate information Lamudi Amazon 1994 Online retailer Avenida.com Udem 2010 Online education EduK.com.br EventBrite 2006 Platform to manage events S m uShi Fandango / AlloCind Khan Academy & Coursera 2003 Transportation TransportarOnline 2000 Movie information and ticket sale portal Cinepapaya 2006 Online education platform for the Brazil market Descomplica GrubHub 2004 Online and mobile food-ordering company PedidosYa GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms Sinimanes GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms ClickDelivery Wa .com 1998 Online store for pets Petzy.mx Square 2009 Card payment Pagpop Elance/oDesk 2005 Marketplace for freelance Woot 2004 One deal per day Workana Mequedouno.com .mx Kickstarter 2009 Crowdfunding Broota 99Designs 2008 online graphic design marketplace Torneo de Ideas Hailo/Uber 2009 mobile Taxi apps DineroTaxi 2005 Network of technology-oriented blogs Startupi Luxury women appareal ecommerce OQVestir Techcrunch GuiltGrou comoarisn EscolherSeguros la EmotionBox 2009 Subscription marketing Regalobox VistaPrint 1995 Printing space Printi Groupon 2008 Daily deal Notelapierdas Groupon 2008 Daily deal Cuponzote.com Amazon 1994 Online retailer Buscalibre Dia er.com 2005 Online retailer for babies Bebe2go.com Dia er.com 2005 Online retailer for babies Ebebe.mx Dia er.com 2005 Online retailer for babies Bebitos.mx uShip 2003 Transportation Orangutrans GrubHub 2004 Online food ordering platforms Pick-eat Quora 2009 Crowdsourced intelligence Ledface Hailo/Uber 2009 mobile Taxi apps Tappsi Hailo/Uber 2009 mobile Taxi apps Ubimovil Zazzle 1999 Online creative platform MangaCorta Zazzle 1999 Online creative platform Pegalo Hoteltonight.com 2010 Last minute hotels Fugate Groupon 2008 Daily deal BuzzUrbano Groupon 2008 Daily deal OferCity.com MX Groupon Fandango / AlloCin6 2008 Daily deal Cuponetika 2000 Movie information and ticket sale portal Cinemaki 93 1 Facebook Shtoerazzle 2004 1Social network I Mint.com c2c 1999 2009 Online personalized styling and retail 2006 Online personal finance service Sonico IShoes4you Buxu Arg IPO (1.6 bi) 2007 2008 c2c 1999 Arg Acquired by Mercado Libre $40m b2c 1999 Arg +4,500 employees b2c 2010 Br +1,000 employees, serie C b2c 2009 Br b2b 1997 Arg 2012 Leader in Brazil, raised 19m Acquired by Staples in 2004 for 23m b2c 2000 Br Revenues of 150m in 2011, raised 70m b2c 1998 Br Acquired by Napster for $374m c2c 2006 Br Raised 114m from Napster Aquisition Groupon 2004 b2c 2010 Cl b2c 2008 Arg A uired b EventBrite b2c 2011 Br Raised over 40 m b2c 1999 Arg b2c 2010 Cl Acquired by FancyBox b2c 2010 Cl Acquired by FancyBox b2c 2011 Cl Acquired by AlmaBox b2c 2007 Arg Acquired 2008 by Clarin b2c 2010 Mx Acquired by SinDelantal b2c 2010 Arg Acquired by ClickDelivery b2c 2010 Br Acquired by Peixe Urbano b2c 2012 Br Acquired by HelloFood b2c 2011 Br Acquired by HelloFood 2013 b2c 2009 Br Raised 17m 2010 b2c 2007 Br Raised 46m b2c 2004 Br Acquired for 7m (positive return) 2010 IPOed 2005 2005 2008 b2c 1999 Br Raised B 10m 2013 b2c 2009 Arg Acquired by Elo7 2012 c2c 2010 Mx Acquired by Idea.me c2c 2010 Br Acquired by 99Designs b2c 2011 Br Raised 32m, 60 cities worlwide b2c 2010 Arg Acquired by Fnbox 2011 b2c 2010 Br Acquried 2011 Rocket Internet post launch 94 b2c 2010 Br b2c 2010 Br b2c 2009 b2c 2011 b2c 2009 CI Raised 16m b2c 2010 Br Raised +25m 2013 c2c 2010 Br Raised 11.1m 2013 b2c 2012 Arg Acquired other comp b2b 2011 Br Seria A,B undisclosed b2c 2009 Br Backed by Build.com exec and others b2c 2006 Br Raised 7.5m in 2012 c2c 2008 Br 7.6 million visitors/month c2c 2011 Raised 21.1m 2012 Br Raised 17.8m in total 2013 Arg Raised 16.5m Kaszek ventures Seed round c2c 2012 Cl Raised Seria A, undisclosed b2c 2011 Br Raised 14.5m 2013 b2c 2006 Br Raised +15m 2012 b2c 2012 Mx Raised 96.5m 2013 b2c 2012 Br VC funding, undisclosed b2c 2011 BR Raised 10m 2011 b2c 2011 Br Raised between 3-5m in 2012 2012 b2b 1999 Cl Raised 15m b2c 2009 Raised 15m 2012 2011 Br Raised more than 10m 2012 2012 2012 Br Undisclosed b2b 2011 Br Raised 30m, 25m users b2c 2012 b2c 2010 b2c 2012 b2c 2008 Br Raised 4.1m b2c Br Raised 20m Rocket internet Rocket Internet Raised 4.7m -Ar Arg Raised 0.6m merged with coquelux.com 2013 Mx Raised 3.6m 2011 b2c 2009 b2c Redpoint eVentures Raised 28m, present in 21 countries Arg b2b Kaszek and Monashees Rocket internet 2008 2011 Roclet Internet Raised 11m 2008 c2c Kaszek Raised 2.5m 2013 1 2013 Rocket internet 1.7m Raised 5.6m Cl Raised 2009 Cl Raised Sm b2c 2010 Br Raised 230m, b2c 2011 b2c 2011 Br Raised 4m b2c 2011 Br Raised 3m b2c 2010 Mx 500 city accelerator Rocket internet Rocket Internet Raised +50m 2013 2013 95 b2c 2009 b2c 2013 Br Raised between 1-5m 2013 2013 2013 Ar Back by Quasar 2013 Br Raised Seria A, undisclosed b2c 2011 Mx Angel round b2c 2012 Arg Invest from ex DHL CEO b2c 2011 Pr 2013 investment 2011 Br b2c 2009 Uru b2c 2011 Cl Nxtp b2c 2007 Co Serie A undisclosed 2013 Mx 2006 Br Raised 1m Raised cap from Intel Capital, revenue 1.5m 2012 b2b Raised 6m, Peter Thiel RocketInternet Present in 8 countries, 100 cities labs, SUP Chile 2012 Arg Seed round 500k b2c 2009 Mx Raised 4m c2c 2012 Cl Seed 230k c2c 2011 Mx Seed 150k b2c 2012 Arg c2c 2008 Br Seed money Raised 0.3m b2c 2009 Br Raised Seria A, undisclosed b2c 2010 Cl 2012 Br Raised 1.2m b2c 2010 Uru Undisclosed b2c 2010 Mx b2c 2010 Cl 2012 Br 2012 Mx 2012 Mx Raised 1.3m b2c 2013 Cl Winner Green Startup 2013 b2c 2012 Ar Seed money c2c 2010 Br b2c 2012 Co Only in Colombia Raised 2013 2012 3m b2c 2011 Cl Partner with cell operator c2c 2011 Cl Seed money c2c 2011 Cl Seed money b2c 2012 Cl Startup Chile b2c 2010 Mx b2c 2010 Mx b2c 2011 Cl StarupChile b2c 2008 Arg Closed 2013 c2c 2007 Arg Raised 6m - Failed 96 5 1 IPO 5 1 Good ac Alec Oxenford No 5 1 bi Roberto Souviron No 5 1 Big success BR Julio Vasconcellos, Emerson Andrade Yes 5 1 Leader in Br Bob Rossato Yes 5 1 Good exit Santiago Bilinkis No 5 1 Leader in Br Yes 5 1 Marcio Kumruian Romero Rodrigues, Rodrigo Borges, Ronaldo Morita and Mario Letelier 5 1 Alec Oxenford, Fabrice Grinda No 4 1 Good acq Felipe Henriquez, Oskar 0., Daniel Undurraga No 4 1 Good acq Pablo Aquistapace, Emilio Tagua No 4 1 Joao Ricardo Mendes No 4 1 IPO Marcelo Ballona, Antonio Bonchristiano No 4 1 Small acq Anne-Sophie Dutat Yes 4 1 Small acq Anne-Sophie Dutat Yes 4 1 Small acq Josefina Estivariz Yes 4 1 Small acq Matias Alejo Garcia, Lucas Lain No 4 1 Eduardo Mussali No 4 1 Javier Cohen Kichik No 4 1 Small acq Leandro Morais No 4 1 Small acq Bruno Mengatti Yes 4 1 Small acq Fernando Monteiro No 4 1 Biggest shop club Br Vasco Crivelli Visconti, Paulo Humberg Yes 4 1 Daniel Kafie, Mario Schlosser and Josh Kushner No 4 1 Daniel Topel No 4 1 Been in busines long Marcio Waldman Yes 4 1 Small acq Alexis Caporale No 4 1 Small acq Bruno Pereira No 4 1 Dan Strougo Yes 4 1 Tallis Gomes No 4 1 Albert Aspani Yes 4 1 Marcelo Macedo No Emilio Maciel, Florian Otto Yes Marcos Galperin &co est in LA No No 4 1 3.5 1 Good growth Kimball Thomas Yes 3.5 1 Good growth Juliana Della Nina e Leonardo Simlo No 97 3.5 1 Good growth Santiago Bilinkis No 3.5 1 Good growth Sebastian Valin No 3.5 1 Alexandre Jesus No Fernando Okumura No 3.5 1 lOm visits, 100% growth 3.5 1 Acquired other sup Ignacio Molins No 3.5 1 Good growth Vinicius Roveda Goncalves Yes 3.5 1 Daniel Scandian Yes 3.5 1 Good growth In business for long time Paulo Biancalana Yes 3.5 1 Good growth Carlos Eduardo Curioni Yes 3.5 1 Mariano Suarez Battan Yes 3.5 1 Leader in LA Leader in Chile, expanding Nicolas Shea No 3.5 1 Rapid growth Max Reichel No 3.5 1 Rapid growth Lucas Mendes, Felipe Ganem Mansano No 3 1 Bernardo Cordero, Fernando D'Alessio No 3 1 Eldes Mattiuzzo Yes 3 1 Rodrigo Veloso, Jose Augusto Correa e Oswaldo Romano Ji1nior Yes 3 1 3 1 Leader in LA Marcelo Blay Yes Juan Pablo Swett, Felipe Hurtado No 3 1 Brian Requarth, Diego Simon Yes 3 1 Too soon to know Emflio Maciel Yes 3 1 Too soon to know Ronald Beigi, Camila Mendes Vieira de Souza No 3 1 No buisness model yet Marco DeMello Yes 3 Maria Fernanda de Azevedo Antunes Junqueira No Victor Noda No 3 1 1 1 Emerson Calegaretti Yes 3 1 Felipe Fioravante, Patrick Sigrist No 3 1 Big in Arg Agustin Pallotti No 3 1 Too soon to know Felipe Herrera Zoppi 3 1 Too soon to know Adolfo Babatz, Vilash Poovala Yes 3 1 Fabio Tran, Jaques Weltman No 3 1 Leader in LA Rodrigo Villatoro, Francesc Font No 3 1 Quick growth Jon Uriarte Uranga No 3 1 Clemens Raemy, Jonathan Lo, Diego Massanti No Thibaud Lecuyer No Antony Martins No Andre Beisert No Eduardo LHotellier No Joshua Francia, Alfredo Canales No 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 3 No tracking yet Too soon to know Marco Kemp e Pieter Lekkerkerk No Vera Makarov No Santiago Bilinkis Yes 98 2 0 Too soon to know 2 0 No tracking yet 2 0 No tracking yet 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3.5 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 2 IEduardo Souza Mendonca de Lima Yes Rodrigo Cartacho No Federico Vega No Gary Urteaga No Too soon to know Marco Fisbhen Yes Not yet consolidated Alvaro Garcia, Ariel Burschtin No Ignacio Guglielmetti No Acquired competition Miguel Mc Allister No Too soon to know Toby Clarence-Smith No Marcio Campos No Tomas O'Farrell, Guillermo Bracciaforte No Pablo Recolons Brugueras No .Jose Antonio Berrios Cruzat No 0 Martin Iglesias No 0 Carlos Matias Baglieri No 0 Diego Remus Yes 2 0 Mariana medeiros No 2 0 Henri Bugnet No 2 0 Mate Pencz, Florian Hagenbuch No 2 0 Marcelo Ceruzzi No 2 0 Gerardo Giacoman Colyer No 1 0 Eduardo Stekel, Boris Kraizel No 1 0 Too soon to know Salvador Kalifa No 1 0 Too soon to know Gerardo Mendoza Llanes No 1 0 Too soon to know Enrique Zambrano No 1 0 No tracking yet Pablo Cappellini No 1 0 Diego Gawenda No 1 0 Horacio Poblete No 1 0 Andres Gutierrez, Juan Salcedo No 1 0 Juan Carlos Solari No 1 0 Alan Earle No 1 0 Miguel Correa No 1 0 Andres Garnham No 1 0 Arturo Nanes No 1 0 Angela Cois No 1 0 Patricio Bravo Celis No o 0 Lucas Lain 0 0 0 0 Rodrigo Teijeiro Yes 0 Olivier Grinda, Fabrice Grinda No 0 Andres Arellano No Too soon to know Too soon to know 99 4 JP Morgan, 6 MBA Stanford Linkedin BCG MBA HBS 4 PWC, France Telecom MBA Duke Linkedin Linkedin (R. S o u vi r o n) 6 Facebook, the experience project, Microsoft MBA Stanford Linkedin 15 Preivous Decolar.com, CarlsonWagonlit MBA Brasil FGV Linkedin 2 Procter&Gamble Linkedin 3 Short experience in shoe seeling before NO linkedin Linkedin YPF 0 No relevant experience 12 BCG MBA HBS Linkedin 5 Startups NO Linkedin 9 CEO ITC Solutions (health care) Linkedin 0 Linkedin 3 Yahoo Brazil, experience in startup and VC Oxford 10 Cartier and other luxury band, exports MBA Luxu Brand Marketing Linkedin 10 Cartier and other luxury band, exports MBA Luxury Brand Marketing Linkedin 11 Marketing & Communication Unilever MBA Mannheim SB Linkedin 4 HP, Telmex, developes exp MBA EDDE (not known) Linkedin 4 No relevant experience Linkedin 3 Experience in media (not food neither startup) Linkedin 7 Developer, experience on cofounding startup Linkedin 5 Linkedin 7 Workd as COO Glossybox, Rocket Internet Experience on startups, consutlant management MBA Coppead 20 Experience on startups and ecommerce PhD Physics Linkedin 3 McKsinsey, no exp in startups MBA HBS Linkedin 6 Experience in software USA, PWC USA MS Stanford 4 Veterinarian Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin 1 Preivous stratup (not successful) 10 HR background 8 Experience in design & arquitect Linkedin 3 Exp in startups, entrepreneur Linkedin 15 Exp in startups, and discounts 13 Banking/investment MBA exec Ibmec Linkedin 6 MBE Brasil FGV Linkedin MBA Harvard Linkedin 7 Groupon China, McKinsey Successfull entrepreneur, pooltable.com (ecommerce) Some experience in ecommerce, product management NO Linkedin 15 Officenet, P&G Singularity University Linkedin 6 Linkedin MBA FGV Br Linkedin Linkedin 100 0 No previous ex eri 10 Director LG 5 10 Consultant McK and BCG Lot of experience Nestle, Glossybox Rocket for 1 year Software Dev (small comp), founder of rpevious startup 7 Worked at com an that used wood 18 CEO Dakota Parts No info Linkedin 15 Meli, Accenture MBA Wharton Linkedin 10 Successfull entrepreneur exit (Disney) 7 Entrepeneur, government MBA Stanford Linkedin 5 McKsinsey MBA HBS Linkedin 4 Investment banking, BCG MBA NYU Linkedin 14 Consultant in tech/stratups MBA NYU Linkedin 14 Superintendente Itau, MBS Seguros MA Stanford 25 Experienced entrepreneur 20 VP Itau seguros 9 Linkedin e Linkedin Stanford MBA, Wharton Linkedin ESADE Linkedin MBA FGV Br Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin MBA Columbia Linkedin 7 No relevant experience Previous startup in same field, excecution experience Bachelor San Diego U., Business Adm Brasil FGV Linkedin 6 Groupon China, McKinsey MBE Brasil FGV Linkedin 8 Bain Consultant MBA IESE Esp, MBA Harvard Linkedin 14 Security at Microsoft MBA Wharton Linkedin 3 Goldman Sachs Debts MBA FGV Br Linkedin 7 Booz Allen Kellogg MBA Linkedin 18 Exp in internet, big companies MBA at ESPM Linkedin 7 Consultant background 8 Oracle, some experience in startup BA USAL 6 Experience in software Msc Marketing Paris Dauphine Linkedin 4 _Linkedin Linkedin 14 PayPal, Visa, management, no startup exp MBA MIT Linkedin 7 AT Kerney McKinsey MBA Kellogg Linkedin 6 P&G, Pmang MBA Shangai Linkedin 7 Morgan Stanley, Banking MBA U de Deusto Linkedin 6 Exp investment banking MBA HBS Linkedin 6 Investment banking MBA Insead Linkedin 12 Exp in marketing & communcations MBA ESPM Linkedin 8 Ambev, Mckinsey MBA HBS Linkedin 4 Accenture, Bain, McKinsey 6 Developpers, startups MS Tech Mont Linkedin 15 VP Banking ABN Ambro, McKinsey MBA Erasmus U., MBA Insead Linkedin Linkedin 8 Experience in consulting and investment HBS Bachelor and MBA Linkedin 15 Officenet, P&G Singularity University Unkedin 14 Background eng. - founded educational Linkedin 101 startup 10 Various startup projects (no very successful) MBA Universidad de Girona Linkedin 6 M Fin England Linkedin Various studies, not clear Linkedin 10 JP Morgan finance Consutitant United Nations, not success expt in startups Teacher, experience in education and entrepreneur Grd Business Uni Feder Rio de Janeiro Linkedin 4 Software exp, some startup experience 7 7 years in teleco industry Ms Erasmus University Linkedin 3 Some experience in startup 4 Barclays, some Linio and VC Bridge 6 Harvard MS, experience in startups, VCs 10 Expeience in FnBox, Google BA U San Andres Linkedin 15 Exp in technology Business IESE Linkedin 8 Linkedin Linkedin MBA Wharton Linkedin Linkedin 0 Linkedin 4 Deloitte, Pepsico 7 Software exp, some startup experience Linkedin 6 Newpapers, editor Linkedin 8 Lawyer 4 No startup exp 4 Harvard Bachelor, MBA Wharton 8 Investment banking Founded previous companies in marketing/com 6 Bain, BCG Bach Yale Linkedin 0 No previous experience NO Linkedin 4 Logistics, CEO advisor MBA HBS Linkedin 5 MBA Stanford Linkedin 5 Banking and ventures Logistics and marketing big company, founder startup MBA Stanford Linkedin 7 Patent Office Linkedin BA Tech Monterrey MBA FGV Br Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin 3 No relevant experience Linkedin 3 Startup experience Linkedin 6 Some exp in startup and corporate Linkedin 9 Exp in retail and consulting 0 No previous experience Linkedin 0 No previous experience Linkedin 5 Lan airlines 5 McKinsey, corporate 4 Government Linkedin 0 No relevant experience Linkedin MBA Adolfo lbahiez Linkedin Linkedin MBA Stanford Linkedin No previous experience 4 Compan builder BA U south calif 6 Cofounder of brandsclub BA U Miami 0 No previous exp Linkedin Linkedin Linkedin 102 0 2 2 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 0 1 1 o 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 o o o 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 o 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 o i 0 0 0 1 0 o o 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 3 0 0 o o o o o o 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 i 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 o 2 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 3 0 0 o 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 o o i 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 o 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 0 2 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 i 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 o o 103 0 2 o 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 I 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 3 1 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 o o 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 1 1 3 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 0 2 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 3 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 1 0 2 2 1 0 2 0 1 i 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 ____ _ 0 _ _ 0 0110 1 1 1 104 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 o 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 2 0 1 o o 0 0 0 3 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 o o o o 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 o o o o i 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 o o 2 2 o 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 o 2 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 o o 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 o 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 o o o o o o o o o i 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 i 0 0 0 1 1 1 o 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 o 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 105 Source Received investment from eBay http://www.igexpansion.com/files/caital%20riesgo.pdf http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Staples_(SPLS)/Acquisitions http://ucbweb2.castelobranco.br/webcaf/arquivos/29423/11427/Netshoes-r.pdf http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4sbmh9NTISg http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/03/ventbrite-acquires-eventioz-and-lanyrd/ http://techcrunch.com/2013/08/07/brazilian-vacation-bookings-goliath-hotelurbano-gets-20m-third-round-led-by-ivp/ http://www.boltventures.com.br/press/2013/8/28/rocket-internet-takes-over-rival-food-delivery-startup-in-brazil http://www.crunchbase.com/company/vostu 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