LOOKING AT CFTA WITH
STATISTICAL LENSES
Edward Chisanga, UNCTAD Trade Negotiations,
Commercial Diplomacy Branch
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I HAVE PREPARED MANY STATISTICS.
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But LET ME SHARE WITH YOU 6
STATISTICS YOU SHOULD NOT IGNORE IN
CFTA TRADE LIBERALIZATION
•
LET ME START WITH FUNDAMENTALS OR
THE FACTORS THAT MAKE TRADE WORK
2
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Limited production and
productivity is at the heart of
Africa's trade problem. This
was repeated yesterday.
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16.0
14.0
12.0
Ghana
Nigeria
Africa
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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2013
Africa
Asia
ECOWAS
Agriculture,
359,115
Manufacturing
225,397
Agriculture,
1,818,347
Manufacturing
4,471,635
Agriculture,
Manufacturing
147,838
58,320
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Africa
1970
2013
Agriculture
23
16
Manufacturing
13
10
29
23
6
9
ECOWAS Agriculture
Manufacturing
6
World
Viet Nam
Africa
1995
2014
$ 3.7 Trillion
$12.2 Trillion
$2.3 Billion
$107.8 Billion
$28.3 Billion
$105.5 Billion
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2014
8 Countries
80%
ECOWAS
13%
8
Benin
Burkina Faso
2013
36
34
Cabo Verde
9
Côte d'Ivoire
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
29
23
22
27
9
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo
47
70
38
40
21
16
49
45
10
Benin
2013
2,743
Burkina Faso
3,970
Cabo Verde
Côte d'Ivoire
149
7,624
Gambia
199
Ghana
Guinea
10,219
1,676
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Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo
470
1,263
3,774
2,755
106,900
2,117
2,358
1,621
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2014
[TOTAL] Total all products
[333] Petroleum oils, oils
from bitumin. materials,
crude
[334] Petroleum oils or
bituminous minerals > 70 %
oil
Account for
22,775,464
9,941,370
3,260,356
13,201,725
58%
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Total all products
1995
2014
$2.8 billions $22.7 billions
Primary commodities
72%
80%
Manufactured goods
28%
20%
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Ships & boats $ 856m?
Lime of $500m per year?
Perfumery of $ 262m?
`Vegetables of $ 253m?
Tobacco, $233m?
Fertilisers $184m?
Footwear $143m?
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Africa
Asia
Exports
$ Billion 87.1 $ Trillion 3.7
Imports
$ Billion 91.0 $ Trillion 3.3
Trade balance
$ Billion -4.1 $ Trillion 0.4
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AFRICA
South Africa
ASIA
Malaysia
2014
$ Billions 87.1
27
$ Trillion 3.7
Billions 141
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19
2014
Africa
ECOWAS
Benin
World
554,423,341
Africa
87,083,085
World
138,712,327
Africa
22,775,464
World
2,010,161
Africa
662,817
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Burkina Faso
Cabo Verde
Côte d'Ivoire
Gambia
Ghana
World
2,488,727
Africa
527,157
World
80,602
Africa
1,100
World
12,985,053
Africa
4,213,663
World
103,937
Africa
31,672
World
12,151,215
Africa
2,031,702
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Guinea
World
Africa
701,861
51,133
1,492,350
27,260
Guinea-Bissau World
Africa
Liberia
World
Africa
Mali
World
Africa
Niger
World
Africa
23,845
597
820,000
3,615
442,996
335,775
273,417
118,678
162,000
706
582,900
1,171
2,100,000
844,245
1,500,000
667,123
World
Africa
World
Africa
12,342,000
893,733
993,292
247,393
97,000,000
11,618,998
2,813,661
1,304,495
World
Africa
World
Africa
42,002
2,613
382,754
72,580
1,891,721
19,768
1,350,000
823,589
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo
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2014 DIFFERENCE
Côte d'Ivoire Africa
Ghana
ECOWAS
2,692,269
Africa
2,031,702
ECOWAS
Nigeria
4,213,663
Africa
ECOWAS
656,977
1,521,394
10,146
11,618,998
5,357,806
6,261,192
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2014
Africa Intra-exports
$87 billions
20 Countries account for
91%
32 Countries account for
9%
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Togo
Senegal
Mali
Niger
Benin
Côte d'Ivoire
Gambia
2014
61.0
46.0
40.0
44.0
33.0
32.0
30.0
25
Burkina Faso
Cabo Verde
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Sierra Leone
21
1
17
2
0
0
1
26
27
1995
20.9
0.6
2014
26.2
0.8
Burkina Faso
0.8
0.6
Cabo Verde
0.0
0.0
Cote D'Ivoire
6.1
4.8
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
0.0
0.8
0.4
0.0
2.3
0.0
ECOWAS
Benin
28
Guinea Bissau
0.0
0.0
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
0.0
2.4
0.9
6.5
0.0
1.0
0.8
13.3
Senegal
1.8
1.5
Sierra Leone
0.0
0.0
Togo
0.5
1.0
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What do we learn from these statistics in
terms of policy options?
Matching country production &
productivity with CFTA ambitions is
key.
Capacity building in understanding
basic statistics for negotiations is
important too.
Follow the EU model in supporting
weaker countries: Establish a Fund
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Edward.Chisanga@unctad.org
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