Context: Climate Change & Sustainability
Complete Demand
andand
Life
Cycle Simulation
Simulation
Analysis
Problem Statement
Scope
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
Method of Analysis
Need Statement & Alternatives
Vehicle Inventories
Based on direction by DOT and E. O. 13514, the FAA must reduce
its GHG emissions by 12.3% by 2020 and meet campus demand
within existing funding.
Presidential Environmental Initiatives
Executive Order 13514 October 5, 2009
50
Gasoline Costs
Electricity Costs
48
46
6% increase
Gasoline Vehicle
42
Technical Center Inventory
Composition
40
13% reduction
Low-Speed Electric Vehicle
Optimize
Inventory
Emissions Trend
35
36
Carbon Neutral
E.O. goal
34
32
30
25
15
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014 2015
Time (years)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
Gasoline
Diesel
Hybrids
Meet Travel
Demand
Deterministic LCC



LSEV’s





NEV’s





CNGV’s



X

Demand
Model
Alternatives
Discrete event
queuing model
evaluates inventories
& estimates average
vehicle mileage
Historic Data 20%
NOT Random
Simulation
Output
Total Cost Underutilization
Inventory
Size
42
$18,113
41 (5)*
$18,822
41 (2)
$19,137
41 (1)
$19,546
39 (1,3,5)
$22,537
Inventory
Waiting Time SD Waiting Time Missed Events
Avg
cost
Avg
cost
Avg
cost
Avg
cost
Avg
cost
122
$4,807
42
$1,764
170
$6,026
155
$5,489
0.8
$27
120
121
120
114
$4,679
$4,750
$4,898
$4,462
41
41
41
39
$1,681
$1,681
$1,681
$1,521
186
196
197
260
$6,604
$6,947
$6,988
$9,234
164
161
167
205
$5,830
$5,724
$5,945
$7,279
0.8
1
0.9
1.2
$28
$35
$34
$41
The 42 vehicle
inventory had the
lowest cost.
Reducing inventory
size lowered
underutilization
costs but increased
waiting time costs
$1,400,000.00
$1,200,000.00
$1,000,000.00
TLLC
$800,000.00
$600,000.00
$400,000.00
$200,000.00
$0.00
CNG
NEV
Gasoline
LSEV
6-year Fleet Total Life Cycle Cost Breakdown
1.00
CNG
NEV
Gasoline
LSEV
0.90
0.83
Energy
$23,900
$12,100
$96,800
0.80
$11,000
0.83
0.70
Corrective
Deterministic
$135,900
$78,600
$21,100
$52,400
$6,100
$78,600
$21,100
$52,400
0.59
0.60
SQ-Gasoline
0.50
SQ-CNG
0.40
SQ-LSEV
0.34
SQ-NEV
0.30
0.20
Acquisition $1,302,000 $966,000 $671,100 $747,600
TLLC
LCC
Model
Monte Carlo
simulation estimates
LCC, CO2
emissions, &
forecasts energy
prices
*indicates which charge code was
reduced
40
35
13% reduction
30
25
$1,540,400 $1,051,600 $852,600 $832,100
0.10
0.00
$700.00
$900.00
Emissions
Trend
Carbon
Neutral
E.O. goal
46% reduction
20
CNG Fleet
15
10
LSEV/NEV
Fleet
5
89% reduction
Replace Inventory with Electric
Vehicles
LSEV’s and NEV’s are the recommended
alternative for vehicle replacement, as they
have the lowest energy, deterministic
maintenance costs, and significantly reduce
CO2 emissions.
Time (years)
Utility vs. Cost
(42 vehicle fleet)
Utility
$1,600,000.00
Weighted
Alternatives
Implement a detailed fleet management
system that tracks vehicle use.
45
Utility Analysis
$1,800,000.00
Utility Analysis and
rankings of different
portfolios
Recommendations
Improve Fleet Management
Technical Center Motor Fleet Yearly CO2
Emissions v. Time
$1,100.00
$1,300.00
Cost ($ Thousands)
$1,500.00
The graph shows
the utility score of
each alternative
versus cost. LSEVs
have the highest
utility & lowest
cost while gasoline
vehicles have the
lowest utility with
nearly the same
cost as LSEVs.
The only financially feasible alternative over 6 years is
LSEV with approximate savings of $1700 per vehicle.
Observations
ROI: LSEV v. Gasoline
22000
6-year savings
of ~ $1,763
per vehicle
21000
20000
Cost ($)
Life Cycle Cost Model Output
Gasoline fleets are
more cost effective
because they are
leased from the
GSA which also
pays for their
maintenance. The
FAA would be
responsible for all
costs from LSEV
fleets.
Objective
Function
The FAA can meet the emissions reduction goal by
replacing 7 gasoline vehicles with LSEV’s or NEV’s
0
6 Year Total Life Cycle Cost by Alternative
Calculated
CO2 Emissions
Minimization
function to filter out
infeasible
inventories for use in
the LCC model
Observations
CO2 Emissions (metric tons)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Demand model
output matches
historical mileage
data with except for
high mileage
vehicles being out
of scope; accounted
for by more low
mileage vehicles
Acquisition Costs
Calculated Total
Life Cycle Costs
Conclusions & Future Work
Objective Function Output
Frequency of Average Miles Driven Per
Month
Stochastic LCC and
emissions
claculation
Inventory
CO2 Emissions
Results
Demand Model Validation
Preventive
Maintenance Costs
Maintain/Reduce Operational
LCC
Suitability
X
5
30
Reduce
Emissions

Alternatives
10
Fleet Size
Historic Distributions
Gasoline
20
Miles Per Gallon
Requirements
Meets requirement
40
Compressed Natural Gas Vehicle
Neighborhood Electric Vehicle
Does not meet requirement
45
38
Number of Vehicles
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (t)
44
Mileage
Inventory
Efficiency
Technical Center Motor Fleet CO2 Emissions v. Time
Objective
Function
Fleet
Composition
A system to be used by the ALO/Fleet Managers of FAA campuses
to identify feasible modifications to the current motor fleet vehicle
inventory to achieve a 12.3% reduction of GHG emissions.
• Requires vehicles to be alternatively fueled by 2016
SD Waiting Time
Missed Events
Building Data
CO2 Emissions
Acquisition Costs
Preventive Maintenance Costs
Need Statement
Presidential Memorandum – Federal Fleet Performance
Demand Model
Campus Layout
Number of Trips
Personnel
Corrective Maintenance Costs
Compressed Natural Gas Costs
• 30% reduction vehicle fleet petroleum usage
• Fleet size optimization
• Directs agency mandated reduction of GHG emissions
Historic Data
and Cost Analysis
Electricity Distribution
Location: 10 miles north of Atlantic City, NJ
Size: ~ 5,000 acre or 7.8 square miles (7x GMU campus size)
Functions: Engineering research, development, testing
Vehicles: 42 GSA leased
Transportation Demand
Charge Groups
Gas Distribution
William J. Hughes Technical Center
CNG Distribution
FAA must comply with Executive Order 13514, to reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of motor fleet by 2020.
Underutilization
Inventory Cost
Waiting Time
19000
LSEV
18000
Gasoline
17000
*
The size of the fleet can be reduced, but
utilization and waiting times are not
linearly affected.
Decentralized fleets are effective at
reducing inventory size while
minimizing bottlenecks that occur in
smaller inventories.
16000
15000
1
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73
Time (Months)
Utilization