Design of a Single Cockpit Pilot for Airline Operations
Jonathan Graham, Chris Hopkins, Soham Trivedi, Andrew Loeber
System Engineering & Operations Research, George Mason University
Context
Need:
A single pilot cockpit is needed to decrease labor expenses and
mitigate the effects of a pilot shortage
34 flight procedures for a normal flight are processed
through the Model Human Processor to output
processing times.
Alternatives:
20.00
Two Pilot Cockpit
Single Pilot
0.00
(Baseline)
(No Additional Support)
No change from system in
place today
-40.00
Callouts between pilot and
co-pilot removed
Year
Procedural breakdown does
not change from FCOM
20
Single
Pilot
15
Two Pilot
10
5
Pilot
Support
0
0
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150
Time (s)
0.94
1
3
5
7
9
0.94-0.96
Aircraft
1
MTBF
Cockpit MTBF
• Required system reliability at 1 million
flight hours is 0.94
• An unsupported single pilot would
require aircraft reliability to be at an
unachievable level, making it an
infeasible option
• Single pilot with onboard support
would be feasible as long as an
emergency auto-landing feature could
be implemented
• Avionics would have to be
certified above 1 in 1 million flight
hour failure
Single Pilot Savings
$5.00
$4.00-$5.00
$3.00-$4.00
$2.00-$3.00
$1.00-$2.00
$0.00-$1.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Interest Rate
0.085
25
• Predicted reduced
processing times due to
reduction in task count
• Both single pilot cockpit
designs have average
procedure times
significantly smaller than
the two pilot cockpit, as
expected
6
0.07
Procedure Processing Time Distributions
0.96
0.055
Procedures
0.96-0.98
0.98
0.04
Pilot
Support
Workload
0.98-1
1
0.01
Single
Pilot
Workload
Cockpit Reliability Requirement
Reliability at 1 Million
Flight Hours
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
• Unsupported single pilot
had smallest processing
time
• The unsupported single
pilot showed a fourfold
increase in workload over
the baseline
• The onboard-supported
single pilot, however, saw a
25% decrease in workload
from the baseline
Co-pilot is replaced with
hypothetical black box
avionics system that is
integrated into the cockpit.
Reliability block diagrams are used to
determine reliability of each alternative
compared to the baseline and FAA
requirements.
Modeled an aircraft lifecycle cost (25 years) for
each alternative and calculate net savings using
data collected for Boeing 737s
Conclusions & Future Work
Reliability and Business Model Results
NPV (Millions)
Relative Single Pilot Cockpit Workload
Compared to Baseline Workload
(With Onboard Procedural
Support System)
System can give intelligent
suggestions to pilot, but has
no control over the plane.
Procedure Model Results
Workload Baseline
Ratio
All tasks transferred to pilot
0.005
0.1
-30.00
0.025
-20.00
Profit/Loss
• FAA has predicted a pilot shortage in the next 10 years
• Historically, the cockpit has decreased in size as a way to
mitigate labor costs as technology became available to
assume the roles of the replaced pilots. Could removing the
co-pilot be the next step in this devolution?
Frequency (Thousands)
Single Pilot
10.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Dollars (Billions)
Profit/Loss for Major Air Carriers
Pilot Cost
Escalation
Rate
• Single pilot would support up to a
$4.38M per-aircraft savings over the
25-year life cycle
• Savings could be allocated to
procedure support system acquisition
or other operating costs
• Single pilot cockpit decreases aircraft
operating costs
Two Pilot Reliability Max
Utility vs. Cost
1.20
Single Pilot Reliability Max
Procedure Support
Reliability Max
Two Pilot Workload Max
1.00
0.80
Utility
• Commercial air carriers have experienced poor financial
performance over the past thirteen years
• Financial volatility is caused by rising operating expenses
• Rising variable costs such as fuel are driving operating
expenses up
-10.00
Method of Analysis
Need Statement & Alternative Con-Ops
Single Pilot Workload Max
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
$149.00
$150.00
$151.00
$152.00
$153.00
Cost (Millions)
•
•
•
•
•
$154.00
$155.00
Procedure Support
Workload Max
Two Pilot Procedure Time
Max
Single Pilot Procedure
Time Max
Procedure Support
Procedure Time Max
Single pilot with onboard support alternative gave best utility to cost ratio
Recommend keeping two pilot cockpit with the procedure support system to be
phased in and evaluated for the eventual change to the single pilot cockpit pending
further future analysis
Extend procedure simulation to a live pilot simulator to validate and/or recalibrate
models
• Tie in ATC procedures to test their workloads
• Incorporate dynamics feedback loop
Conduct focus groups with stakeholders to establish win-win scenario
Begin development of Single Pilot with Onboard Support requirements baseline