Toronto Daily News, Canada
10-25-06
Bush North Korea Policy Changed Little
Bush policy on Iraq continues to be the summation of American foreign policy for
many observers, says an expert.
Expect the Bush administration to continue to practice unilateral "hardball"
foreign policy when dealing with North Korea, according to an Iowa State
University political scientist who studied the administration's foreign policy
decisions during the U.S. Foreign Policy Conference at the University of
Leicester in England last month.
North Korea's decision to test nuclear weapons compounds the difficulty the
United States will have in dealing with Iran, according to Iowa State University
Professor and Chair of Political Science James McCormick.
But will the Bush administration continue to practice unilateral "hardball" foreign
policy when dealing with this latest threat? Or will it soften its approach to
become more multilateral, as some critics suggest it must do in the wake of lost
support for its foreign policy?
"The degree of policy change has been halting at best, and the clear impression
left is that the Bush administration has a 'tin ear' on policy change," said
McCormick, who studied the administration's foreign policy decisions for a related
presentation during the U.S. Foreign Policy Conference at the University of
Leicester in England last month.
His appearance was sponsored by the U.S. State Department.
Author of the book "American Foreign Policy and Process," McCormick’s Bush
foreign policy assessment is based on the little changes in policy on Iraq which
continues to be the summation of American foreign policy for many observers.
As for the latest standoff with North Korea, the U.S. may not be in the best
position to support its hard-line approach militarily.
"Now two 'axis of evil' states (North Korea and Iran) are advancing their nuclear
weapons programs, and the United States - with its commitments in Iraq and
Afghanistan - clearly only has diplomatic and economic options for dealing with
these latest threats," said McCormick.
"The positive signal in this episode, however, is the negative reaction by China to
the North Koreans' actions. A tough United Nations resolution may thus be
forthcoming. Moreover, this North Korean action may also strengthen the resolve
of the Europeans to address the Iranian situation."
The implications of North Korea's nuclear capabilities for Northeast Asia are
profound, according to McCormick.
"A nuclear-armed North Koreans is a bit of a nightmare scenario for both South
Korea and Japan," he said. "Further, a nuclear Northeast Asia would be highly
unstable and dangerous for the international community."
But in spite of the threat, there's not much support for whatever the Bush foreign
policy is these days - either at home or abroad.
Although international criticism of administration policy has long been prevalent,
McCormick agrees that domestic criticism of foreign policy has grown in recent
months -- in terms of public opinion, congressional opposition, and two important
court losses. Yet little has changed in terms of the administration's foreign policy
actions.
"Part of the explanation is the lack of effective domestic constraints," he said.
"That is, policy constraints begin at home, especially for a nation that has
substantial global power and for a leader who is determined to pursue his global
vision. Without sustained and coherent domestic constraints, the administration
has little incentive for real policy change."
According to McCormick, research on foreign policy opinion suggests that the
public’s view must reach about 60 percent before impacting policy. Currently, he
reports that only about 20 percent want an immediate withdrawal of American
troops from Iraq.
He also reports that congressional response to the administration's foreign policy
has been tepid, at best.
"More often than not, Congress largely upheld the administration’s position,
whether voting on an Iraq withdrawal deadline or addressing foreign policy
legislation where the president has taken a position," McCormick said.
"Over the first five years of his administration, President Bush has had a 78
percent success rate with Congress, one of the highest among recent presidents.
Presidents Johnson and Kennedy are his nearest competitors, and both of those
presidents had larger Democratic majorities in Congress than Bush’s Republican
majorities in the House and Senate."
The Bush administration recently suffered two judicial defeats to its foreign policy
in the Hamdan v. Rumsfeld case decided by the U.S. Supreme Court in late June
that struck down militant tribunals to try suspected members of al-Qaida, and in
the warrant-less wiretapping case in a federal district court decision in early
August. Such foreign policy defeats for the president from the judicial system are
virtually unheard of, according to McCormick.
But despite their historic ramifications, he reports that these defeats are, at best,
superficial because one will likely be overturned by appeal, and Congress has
already initiated legislation to deal with the other.
He sees the midterm congressional election being the ultimate domestic
constraint to affect change to the Bush foreign policy.
"Frankly," said McCormick, "it's an unusual way to address foreign policy in the
American experience. Yet, if we think about this prospect in the current global
context, it is one that is highly consistent with the promotion of democratic
governance, either at home or abroad."