The earnings and employment returns to A
levels
A report to the Department for Education
February 2015
About London Economics
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Disclaimer
We would like to acknowledge the useful guidance and feedback provided by the Department, and in
particular Emily Hunt and Anthony Lord. However, responsibility for the contents of this report remains with
London Economics, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Department.
Authors
Dr Gavan Conlon, Partner (+44 (0) 20 3701 7703; gconlon@londecon.co.uk)
Mr Pietro Patrignani, Senior Economic Consultant (+44 (0) 20 3701 7720; ppatrignani@londecon.co.uk)
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Table of Contents
Page
Executive summary/ Key findings
ii
1 Methodological approach
1
2 Findings
5
2.1
2.2
A levels as highest qualification
Average earnings and employment returns to A levels by subject area
5
12
BACKGROUND MATERIAL
19
Index of Tables, Figures and Boxes
20
ANNEXES
21
Annex 1
Full econometric results
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
22
i
Executive summary/ Key findings
Executive summary/ Key findings
London Economics were commissioned by the Department for Education to undertake an analysis
of the British Cohort Study (BCS70) to better understand the earnings and employment returns to
GCE A levels. The focus of this report is on the returns to A levels by subject area. The BCS70 is an
exceptionally rich source of data, and in addition to containing information on earnings and labour
market outcomes over time, there is also information on the number, subject areas and grades of
A level attainment. In addition, there is a wide selection of personal and socioeconomic
information contained within the BCS70 that allows us to control for a range of characteristics that
might impact earnings and employment outcomes, and correctly attribute earnings and
employment returns to the qualifications themselves and not just those individuals in possession
of those qualifications.
The key messages emerging from the analysis are as follows:


Compared to GCSEs/O levels, there are strong positive wage returns to A levels –
irrespective of whether the individual goes on to complete further or higher qualifications.
The wage returns are greater when a STEM A level is undertaken compared to A levels in
other subjects; however, for those individuals with A levels as their highest qualification,
there is no appreciable increase in earnings as further STEM specialisation occurs. In other
words, for these individuals, some degree of subject breadth at A level is associated with
the greatest returns. In contrast, individuals who go on to attain further or higher
qualifications see the greatest return associated with prior specialisation in STEM
subjects.

Compared to GCSEs/O levels, for men whose highest qualification consists of a STEM A
level at grade A-C, this premium amounts to approximately £7,000 per annum between
the ages of 29 and 42 (in 2014 prices).The corresponding estimate for women stands at
£4,500 per annum1.


The earnings returns achieved by women are consistently greater than for men.
For men, the grade of A level is important. For women, the grade of A level is less
important than the choice of subject in determining earnings.
Maths test scores at the age of 10 have a significant earnings impact later in life, over
and above the qualifications that individuals go on to attain.
In general, the labour market impact of A levels is predominantly demonstrated through
earnings rather than employment. Employment effects are generally small or not
statistically significant.


1
The reason why the monetary premium achieved by men is greater than that for women, despite the lower percentage return, relates
to the fact that the baseline annual earnings achieved by men are substantially higher than for women
ii
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Executive summary/ Key findings
More detailed findings
For those individuals who indicated that their highest qualification was an A level, the analysis
demonstrated in relation to earnings that:

In the most comprehensive model specification (which controls for a wide range of personal
characteristics, including test scores at the age of 10), across all individuals, the returns to 2
or more STEM A levels stand at 17.8%, compared to returns of 20.3% for 1 STEM A level and
5.3% for non-STEM A levels, relative to those with GCSEs/O levels as their highest
qualification (Table 3). In other words, possession of 1 STEM A level boosts earnings by
approximately 15 percentage points compared to possession of non-STEM A levels. The
analysis suggests that some degree of subject breadth at A level delivers the greatest wage
returns.
Earnings premiums are higher for women than for men. Compared to GCSEs/O levels, men
achieving 2 or more STEM A levels have a (non-statistically significant) earnings return of
around 7.8%, while for women, the corresponding estimate is 33.1%. Men with 1 STEM A
level have an (insignificant) return of 13.8% compared to 29.4% for women, while for nonSTEM A levels, men have a small negative and insignificant return, compared to a return of
21.9% for women (Table 4 and Table 5).
Men with A levels at grades A-C achieve a significant earnings premium (over 10%)
compared to those without (Table 4). Given that more than 80% of A level holders have at
least one good A level, these premiums are additional to the estimated returns to holding A
levels in different subject areas. This yields an earnings return of around 20% for men in
possession of 2 or more STEM A levels and 25% for those in possession of 1 STEM A level. For
women, there is no earnings premium to holding an A level at grades A-C (Table 5).
Even after accounting for holding A level qualifications, pupils performing well on maths
tests at the age of 10 earn more later in life. Compared to scoring in the lowest maths test
quartile at age 10, a female in the top quartile earns a 23.9% premium, while a male achieves
a 12.5% premium (Table 17 and Table 16).
In terms of employment outcomes, there are no statistically significant employment effects
associated with A levels relative to GCSEs/O levels. Although females with 2 or more STEM A
levels or non-STEM A levels have positive employment effects of around 7-8 percentage
points compared to individuals with GCSEs/O levels, the results are never statistically
significant (Table 8). For men, the employment effects are close to zero and insignificant
(Table 7).




For all individuals with A levels (whether held as their highest qualification or not), the analysis
indicated that


In the most comprehensive specification (controlling for early test scores), across both
men and women holding three or more A levels, the earnings premium for 2 or more STEM
A levels stand at 13.1%, compared to 5.9% for one STEM A level, and 4.8% for no STEM A
levels relative to those with GCSEs/O levels. Possession of 2 or more STEM A levels boost
earnings by approximately 8.5 percentage points compared to possession of non-STEM A
levels. The analysis suggests that STEM specialisation, rather than subject breadth,
generates a higher return for those with at least 3 A levels who progress to higher level
qualifications (Table 9).
The earnings premiums are much stronger for women than for men. For those with 2 or
more STEM A levels (and three or more A levels in total), men achieve a (non-statistically
significant) earnings return of around 7.9%, compared to a 23.7% return for women (Table
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
iii
Executive summary/ Key findings



iv
10 and Table 11). The picture is similar also for individuals with 1 STEM A level or nonSTEM A levels (and three or more A levels in total). The combination of STEM subject areas
and A levels at grade A-C provide significant returns especially to men, with earnings
premiums standing at between 15% and 20% (while for those with at least 3 A levels in
non-STEM subject areas, the returns are around 10%).
Again, maths test scores at the age of 10 have a significant impact on earnings later in
life, over and above the qualifications that individuals go on to attain. Compared to an
individual in the lowest maths test score quartile aged 10, a female in the top quartile
earns a 23.5% premium, while a male achieves an 11.2% premium (Table 23 and Table 22).
In terms of employment outcomes, there are no statistically significant employment
effects associated with achieving A levels relative to GCSE/O levels. Although there is some
evidence that males with 2 or more STEM A levels (with three or more A levels in total)
have positive employment effects, these results are weakly significant and disappear when
we combine subject areas with A level grade (Table 13).
Maths test scores at the age of 10 provide a significant employment boost to both men
and women. Compared to the bottom quartile, a female in the top quartile achieves as a
6.6 percentage point employment boost, while a male in the second from highest quartile
achieves a 2.6 percentage point boost (Table 26 and Table 25).
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
1 │ Methodological approach
1
Methodological approach
To undertake this analysis, we estimated the earnings and employment returns to holding A levels by
subject area following two different approaches:


An estimation of the economic returns to A levels when they are held as highest qualification
(“marginal effects”). The comparison group is formed of individuals holding ‘good’ GCSE/O levels
as highest qualification. These are defined “marginal effects”, as they capture the additional
earning and employment returns of moving one step up in the National Qualification Framework.
An estimation of the economic returns to A levels irrespective of whether they are held as
highest qualification or not (“average effects”). All individuals with at least ‘good’ GCSE/O levels
are included in the regressions and the estimated coefficients provide the earnings and
employment returns to holding A levels by subject area (whether as the highest qualification or
not). These are defined “average effects”, as they provide an estimate of the additional earning
and employment returns to holding A levels.
Below, we provide details on the models used in the estimation of the wage and employment equation
and on the different sets of control variables included in the different specifications.
Data used
All data came from the British Cohort Study (BCS70). The BCS70 follows individuals born in England,
Scotland and Wales in a single week of 1970 and contains information on health, physical, educational
social development, economic and labour market circumstances and other characteristics (e.g. early
cognitive measures). Labour market returns were estimated using BCS70 sweeps at the ages of 29, 34,
38 and 42. Variables providing information on family and child characteristics were taken from the
earlier BCS70 waves. Due to sample size restrictions we pooled together data contained in all four
sweeps (see Table 2). To avoid losing observations due to missing values in some of the control
variables, we generated additional categories to control for the presence of missing values.
Definition of STEM subjects
In terms of the definition of the STEM grouping of subjects, this consisted of the following: Maths and
Statistics; Biology and Other Sciences; Chemistry; Engineering and Electronics (including very small
number of Building and Construction); Information and Communications Technology; and Physics. NonSTEM subjects included the following: Accounting and Business studies; Art and Design; Classical Studies;
Economics; English Language and Literature; General Studies; Geography; Health and Social Care;
History; Home Sciences; Law; Media and communication; Modern Languages; Politics; Psychology;
Religious Studies and Philosophy; Social Studies; Sociology; Sports Studies; and Welsh.
Wage returns
We adopted a standard OLS linear regression model, where the dependent variable is the natural
logarithm of weekly earnings and the independent variables include a set of personal and other
characteristics (full details below). We included individuals who are employed (including self-employed)
on either a full-time or part-time basis. The basic specification of the model is defined as follows:
for i = 1 to n
where ln(ω) represents the natural logarithm of weekly earnings and X provides the independent
variables included in the analysis (described below).
Employment outcomes
We adopted a probit model to estimate the likelihood of A levels holders being in employment or
otherwise. The specification defines an individual’s labour market outcome to be either in employment
or not in employment (using the standard ILO definition).
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
1
1 │ Methodological approach
The model specification is as follows:
The dependent variable adopted has the binary variable EMPNOT that is coded 1 if the individual is in
employment and 0 otherwise. The control variables included in the regression (represented by Zi in the
equation) capture personal and family characteristics as described below, clearly excluding any jobrelated characteristics.
Model specifications
The BCS70 provide a rich and comprehensive set of personal and family characteristics. In the analysis
we started with a basic set of control variables (including contemporaneous and time-invariant
characteristics), then enriched the set of control variables to include family and child background
characteristics gathered in the early BCS waves. Finally, the third specification also included maths and
reading test scores measured when respondents were aged 102. All specifications were estimated in
aggregate and disaggregated by gender.
Table 1: Model specifications and sets of control variables
Variables
A level subject areas
2 or more STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
Other non-STEM combinations
Other A level/education characteristics
Number of A levels (3 or more/2 or less)*
Any A levels at grade A-C
Highest qualification held**
Personal characteristics
Gender
Ethnic Origin
Part-time employment***
Marital status
Region of residence
Family and Child characteristics
Low birth weight (less than 2.5 kg)
Whether family owned house at age 10
Parental occupation at age 10
Father school leaving age
Mother school leaving age
Age of mother at birth
Early test scores
Reading test scores at age 10
Maths test scores at age 10
Time dummies
Specification 1 –
Basic Set
Specification 2 Family and Child
Background
Specification 3 Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
test scores
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
Note: *A level subject areas and number of A levels are explicitly combined in the average effects regressions **Only in the specifications
estimating average effects. *** Only in the wage regressions
Due to the policy interest in specific subject area combinations (and in part as a result of the fact that
the sample sizes associated with specific A level subject areas was particularly limited), we generated
three different variables identifying individuals holding A levels in different subject areas:
2
Further information on the maths and reading tests administered to the BCS70 cohort at the age of 10 can be found (here)
2
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
1 │ Methodological approach



Individuals holding 2 or more A levels in STEM subjects (Science, Technology, Engineering and
Maths) and possibly A levels in other areas.
Individuals holding 1 A level in a STEM subject area (possibly combined with other A levels).
Individuals holding A levels in other (non-STEM) subject areas.
In the estimation of "average" returns, these three categories identifying A level subject areas were
explicitly combined with the number of A levels held ('3 or more' and '2 or fewer') to generate six
categories. Due to sample size restrictions, in the estimation of marginal returns we could not combine
explicitly the subject areas with the number of A levels, but included the two sets of variables separately
as explanatory variables. The samples available for the regression analysis were as follows:
Table 2: Sample sizes
Earnings Regression
A levels as highest qualification
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A level
All with A levels
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
Male
Female
Total
120
176
282
63
79
428
183
255
710
988
135
240
290
405
484
490
62
403
159
732
860
1,478
197
643
449
1,137
1,344
Employment Regression
A levels as highest qualification
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A level
All with A levels
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
Male
Female
Total
162
237
400
98
138
670
260
375
1,070
1,259
180
321
385
567
669
731
92
570
238
1,093
1,315
1,990
272
891
623
1,660
1,984
Note: sample sizes for respondents reporting subject areas of A levels
General interpretation of coefficients
As is general practice in the area, for the earnings returns, the actual coefficients from the regression
are presented in the various tables in the report, while the precise percentage effect of the independent
variable on the earnings outcomes is presented in the text (by transforming the β coefficient in the
regressions using the transformation eβ -1). This transformation is required as we are estimating the
impact of qualification attainment on the logarithm of weekly earnings (and presented in percentages).
No exponential transformation is necessary when considering the employment outcomes of learners, as
the relevant coefficient provides an automatic estimate of the impact of the qualification on the
probability of being in employment (stated in percentage points).
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
3
1 │ Methodological approach
Combining coefficients - subject of study and grade of A level
The regressions also control for whether individuals also hold at least one A level at grades A-C. As the
vast majority of individuals holding A levels have at least one at grade A to C (at least three quarters do –
more so in the case of those with STEM subjects), the returns to holding A levels should be thought of as
the sum of the returns to holding at least one A level at grades A-C and the A level subject.
4
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
2
Findings
2.1
A levels as highest qualification
In this section, we consider the earnings and employment returns when A levels are the highest
qualification. Results are presented in aggregate (across men and women (Table 3 for earnings and
Table 6 for employment)) and then for men (Table 4/ Table 7) and women separately (Table 5/Table 8).
Aggregated analysis
 There are strong positive earnings returns to A levels. In the basic specification, where basic
personal and regional characteristics were incorporated into the model specifications, the
earnings premium associated with having 2 or more STEM A levels stood at 27.4% compared to O
levels/GCSEs. The earnings premium associated with the possession of one STEM subject was
slightly higher (though not statistically significantly different), standing at 32%. Possession of nonSTEM A levels enhanced earnings by an average of 13.2%. All results were statistically significant
(Table 3).
 As further control variables are added to the model to explain respondent characteristics,
earnings premiums decline. In the most comprehensive specification, where parental
characteristics and maths/reading test scores aged 10 are included in the analysis, the return to 2
or more STEM A levels stands at 17.8%, compared to returns of 20.3% for 1 STEM A level (though
not statistically significantly different) and 5.3% for non-STEM A levels (Table 3).
Disaggregated analysis – gender and subject specialisation
 The earnings returns to women are greater when a STEM A level is undertaken (compared to no
STEM A levels); however, there is no appreciable increase in earnings returns as further STEM
specialisation occurs. In other words, for those who are in possession of A levels as their highest
qualification, some degree of subject breadth at A level is associated with the greatest earnings
returns (Table 4 and Table 5).
 In the regression with all control variables, for those in possession of 2 or more STEM A levels,
men achieve a non-statistically significant earnings return (around 7.8%), compared to a 33.1%
return for women. The picture is similar also for individuals in possession of 1 STEM A level, where
the returns stand at 13.8% for men (statistically insignificant) compared to 29.4% for women. For
non-STEM A levels, men post a small negative return of -4% (statistically insignificant) compared
to 21.9% for women (Table 4 and Table 5).
Disaggregated analysis – gender and grade of GCE ‘A level
 For men in particular, the grade of A level is important. Specifically, earnings returns to holding A
levels at grades A-C are positive and large for men (around 12%), and the package of having STEM
A levels at grades A-C provide sizeable returns to men (around 20-25%). For women, the grade of
A level is less important in determining earnings compared to the choice of subject (Table 4 and
Table 5).
Maths Test scores age 10
 The analysis also demonstrates the importance of controlling for maths test scores at the age of
10. Compared to an individual in the lowest maths test score quartile, a female in the top quartile
earns a 23.9% premium (Table 17), while a male achieves a 12.5% premium (Table 16).
Employment
 In terms of employment outcomes, the analysis indicates that in general, there are no statistically
significant employment effects associated with the possession of A levels relative to GCSE/O
levels. Although females in possession of 2 or more STEM A levels or non-STEM A levels have
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
5
2 │ Findings

positive employment effects of around 7-8 percentage points compared to individuals in
possession of O levels/ GCSEs, results are never statistically significant (Table 8).
Again, maths test scores at the age of 10 provide a significant employment boost to both men
and women. Compared to the bottom quartile, a female in the top quartile achieves as a 12.8
percentage point boost (Table 20), while a male in the third or top quartile achieves a 5
percentage point boost (Table 19).
Table 3: Earnings returns associated with A levels (Summary - Men and women combined)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.242***
(0.063)
0.278***
(0.081)
0.124*
(0.067)
0.032
(0.058)
0.037
(0.046)
-0.320***
(0.017)
0.206***
(0.065)
0.226***
(0.081)
0.083
(0.066)
0.048
(0.058)
0.033
(0.046)
-0.315***
(0.017)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.164**
(0.066)
0.182**
(0.082)
0.052
(0.066)
0.052
(0.057)
0.043
(0.046)
-0.317***
(0.017)
8,489
0.487
8,489
0.498
8,489
0.504
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Fewer than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Female
Observations
R-squared
Note: Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
40.0%
32.0%
30.0%
27.4%
22.9%
25.4%
17.8%
20.0%
20.0%
13.2%
8.7%
10.0%
5.3%
0.0%
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged
10
No STEM A levels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
6
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
Table 4: Earnings returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Men)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.123
(0.087)
0.195*
(0.111)
-0.001
(0.097)
0.107
(0.082)
0.112
(0.069)
0.097
(0.083)
0.145
(0.108)
-0.030
(0.093)
0.108
(0.080)
0.107
(0.065)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.075
(0.083)
0.129
(0.110)
-0.041
(0.091)
0.102
(0.080)
0.113*
(0.065)
4,134
0.273
4,134
0.298
4,134
0.306
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Fewer than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
R-squared
Note: Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
30.0%
21.5%
20.0%
15.6%
13.1%
13.8%
10.2%
7.8%
10.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-10.0%
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged
10
No STEM A levels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
7
2 │ Findings
Table 5: Earnings returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Women)
Control Variable
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Fewer than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
R-squared
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.384***
(0.091)
0.348***
(0.117)
0.267***
(0.084)
-0.066
(0.077)
-0.032
(0.058)
0.337***
(0.098)
0.306***
(0.118)
0.228***
(0.086)
-0.047
(0.076)
-0.037
(0.061)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.286***
(0.098)
0.258**
(0.116)
0.198**
(0.084)
-0.033
(0.074)
-0.043
(0.061)
4,355
0.420
4,355
0.431
4,355
0.440
Note: Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
50.0%
46.8%
41.6%
40.1%
40.0%
35.8%
33.1%
30.6%
29.4%
30.0%
25.6%
21.9%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged
10
No STEM A levels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
8
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
Table 6: Employment returns associated with A levels (Summary results - Men and women
combined)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.059
(0.038)
0.011
(0.035)
0.065*
(0.035)
-0.007
(0.028)
-0.045
(0.030)
-0.165***
(0.008)
0.056
(0.038)
0.002
(0.036)
0.058
(0.036)
-0.007
(0.028)
-0.041
(0.030)
-0.164***
(0.008)
0.038
(0.038)
-0.014
(0.036)
0.047
(0.035)
-0.004
(0.027)
-0.038
(0.029)
-0.163***
(0.008)
0.073
12,975
0.080
12,975
0.087
12,975
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Fewer than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Female
Pseudo R-squared
Observations
Note: Reporting marginal effects. Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
15.0
10.0
6.5
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.0
4.7
3.8
1.1
0.2
0.0
-1.4
-5.0
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
No STEM A levels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
9
2 │ Findings
Table 7: Employment returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Men)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.041
(0.038)
0.040
(0.034)
0.040
(0.032)
-0.020
(0.028)
-0.047
(0.036)
0.026
(0.036)
0.021
(0.032)
0.025
(0.031)
-0.013
(0.026)
-0.033
(0.031)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.009
(0.036)
0.012
(0.032)
0.020
(0.030)
-0.015
(0.026)
-0.026
(0.029)
0.057
5,980
0.076
5,980
0.087
5,980
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Fewer than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Pseudo R-squared
Observations
Note: Reporting marginal effects. Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
15.0
10.0
5.0
4.1
4.0
4.0
2.6
2.1
2.5
0.9
1.2
2.0
0.0
-5.0
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
No STEM A levels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
10
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
Table 8: Employment returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Women)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.098
(0.065)
-0.026
(0.061)
0.092
(0.061)
-0.003
(0.047)
-0.045
(0.047)
0.104
(0.063)
-0.025
(0.061)
0.090
(0.062)
-0.010
(0.048)
-0.044
(0.047)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.085
(0.064)
-0.047
(0.061)
0.074
(0.062)
0.000
(0.047)
-0.045
(0.047)
0.014
6,995
0.021
6,995
0.028
6,995
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Fewer than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Pseudo R-squared
Observations
Note: Reporting marginal effects. Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
15.0
10.0
9.8
10.4
9.2
9.0
8.5
7.4
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-2.5
-2.6
-4.7
-10.0
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged
10
No STEM A levels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
11
2 │ Findings
2.2
Average earnings and employment returns to A levels by subject area
In this section, we consider the returns to A levels when individuals may go on to complete further or
higher qualifications (approximately 73% of total). As before, results are presented in aggregate across
men and women (Table 9 for earnings and Table 12 for employment). We then present the
corresponding results for men (Table 10 and Table 13) and women (Table 11 and Table 14). In these
specifications, we include all respondents with 5 or more GCSE at grades A*-C/O levels or above as
highest qualification. Due to the increased sample size, we were able to combine the A levels subject
areas with the number of A levels to generate six different categories: 3 subject areas (2+ STEM A levels,
1 STEM A levels, no STEM A levels) combined with 2 categories for number of A levels possessed (3+ A
levels/2 or fewer A levels).
Aggregated analysis
For all those who indicated that their they completed an A level, the analysis demonstrated in relation to
earnings that


In the basic specification, for those individuals in possession of three or more A levels, the earnings
premium associated with having 2 or more STEM A levels stood at 18.1% compared to O
levels/GCSEs, compared to 10.5% associated with one STEM subject, and 8.3% associated with no
STEM subjects. In the most comprehensive specification, the returns stand at 13.1%, 5.9% and
4.8% respectively (Table 9).
For those individuals in possession of 2 (or fewer) A levels, in the most comprehensive
specification, the earnings premium associated with having 2 STEM A levels stood at 3.1% relative
to O levels/GCSEs, compared to 6.6% associated with one STEM subject, and -6.3% associated
with no STEM subjects (Table 9).
Disaggregated analysis – gender and subject specialisation
 The earnings premiums are much stronger for women than for men.
o In the regression with all control variables, for those in possession of 2 or more STEM A levels
(and three or more A levels in total), men achieve a non-statistically significant earnings return
(around 7.9%), compared to a 23.7% return for women (Table 10 and Table 11).
o The picture is similar for individuals in possession of 1 STEM A level (and three or more A levels
in total), where the returns stand at 3.3% for men compared to 8.8% for women.
o For non-STEM A levels (and three or more A levels in total), men post a small negative return of
-0.5% (statistically insignificant) compared to 10.2% for women (Table 10 and Table 11).
o In other words, for women going on to complete further of higher qualifications, there appears
to be a premium associated with A level STEM subject specialisation.
Disaggregated analysis – gender and grade of A level
 For men, the grade of A level has a positive and statistically significant impact on earnings.
Specifically, the returns to having good A levels grades (at least one A level at grade A-C) stand at
approximately 11%. The combination of grade and subject area provides significant earning return
especially to males: the earning premium is around 15%-20% for men with at least one A level at
grade A-C and STEM subjects, while the return is slightly lower (around 10%) for men in
possession of non-STEM A levels (3 or more in total). Women in possession of good A levels
typically experience a boost in their earning premium of around 3% (Table 10 and Table 11).
Maths Test scores age 10
 Again, maths test scores at the age of 10 have a significant impact on earnings outcomes later in
life. Compared to an individual in the lowest maths test score quartile, a female in the top quartile
earns a 23.5% premium (Table 23), while a male achieves an 11.2% premium (Table 22).
12
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
Employment
 In terms of employment outcomes, the analysis indicates that overall, there are only weakly
significant employment effects associated with the possession of A levels relative to GCSE/O
levels. Although males in possession of 2 or more STEM A levels (with three or more A levels in
total) have positive employment effects of around 2.8 percentage points, the effects are only
weakly significant (Table 13).
 Again, maths test scores at the age of 10 provide a significant employment boost to both men and
women. Compared to the bottom quartile, a female in the top quartile achieves as a 6.6
percentage point boost (Table 26), while a male in the third or top quartile achieves a 2.6
percentage point boost (Table 25).
Table 9: Earnings returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications (Summary Men and women combined)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.166***
(0.035)
0.069
(0.055)
0.100**
(0.044)
0.085**
(0.041)
0.080**
(0.036)
-0.049
(0.030)
0.067**
(0.028)
17,916
0.490
0.140***
(0.035)
0.049
(0.053)
0.072
(0.044)
0.075*
(0.041)
0.054
(0.036)
-0.060*
(0.031)
0.069**
(0.028)
17,916
0.496
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
R-squared
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.123***
(0.035)
0.031
(0.053)
0.057
(0.044)
0.064
(0.041)
0.047
(0.036)
-0.065**
(0.031)
0.070**
(0.028)
17,916
0.500
Note: Reporting marginal effects. Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and excluding
degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by approximately 1
percentage point compared to these results presented here.
20.0%
18.1%
15.0%
15.0%
10.0%
10.5%
7.1%
13.1%
8.9% 8.3%
7.5% 7.8%
5.0%
5.5%
3.1%
5.0%
5.9% 6.6% 4.8%
0.0%
-5.0%
-4.8%
-5.8%
-10.0%
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
-6.3%
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total Al evels
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
13
2 │ Findings
Table 10: Earnings returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications (Summary
results -Men)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
R-squared
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.101**
(0.047)
0.016
(0.068)
0.070
(0.069)
0.077
(0.051)
0.015
(0.052)
-0.142***
(0.046)
0.105***
(0.039)
0.078*
(0.047)
-0.005
(0.065)
0.032
(0.069)
0.068
(0.052)
-0.007
(0.052)
-0.153***
(0.046)
0.103***
(0.039)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.076
(0.047)
-0.011
(0.064)
0.032
(0.069)
0.069
(0.052)
-0.005
(0.051)
-0.155***
(0.046)
0.101***
(0.039)
8,740
0.336
8,740
0.348
8,740
0.353
Note: Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and excluding
degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by approximately 1
percentage point compared to these results presented here.
15.0%
10.6%
5.0%
8.1%
7.3% 8.0%
10.0%
1.6%
7.9%
7.0%
7.1%
3.3%
1.5%
3.3%
0.0%
-0.5%
-5.0%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-0.5%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-13.2%
-14.2%
-14.4%
-20.0%
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total Al evels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
14
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
Table 11: Earnings returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications (Summary
results -Women)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.264***
(0.049)
0.130
(0.089)
0.132**
(0.056)
0.049
(0.064)
0.132***
(0.049)
0.023
(0.038)
0.028
(0.037)
0.238***
(0.050)
0.104
(0.088)
0.109*
(0.057)
0.045
(0.064)
0.107**
(0.049)
0.013
(0.039)
0.028
(0.037)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.213***
(0.050)
0.078
(0.089)
0.084
(0.057)
0.026
(0.065)
0.097**
(0.049)
0.007
(0.039)
0.029
(0.037)
9,176
0.462
9,176
0.467
9,176
0.473
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
R-squared
Note: Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and excluding
degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by approximately 1
percentage point compared to these results presented here.
35.0%
30.2%
30.0%
26.9%
23.7%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
13.9%14.1%
14.1%
11.5%
11.0%
5.0%
10.2%
8.1% 8.8%
4.6%
2.3%
5.0%
11.3%
2.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.0%
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total Al evels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
15
2 │ Findings
Table 12: Employment returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications
(Summary results - Men and women combined)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
Pseudo R-squared
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.010
(0.018)
0.000
(0.027)
0.024
(0.020)
0.013
(0.019)
-0.004
(0.017)
0.005
(0.014)
-0.014
(0.014)
0.008
(0.018)
-0.000
(0.026)
0.019
(0.020)
0.009
(0.019)
-0.007
(0.017)
0.001
(0.014)
-0.012
(0.014)
0.005
(0.018)
-0.004
(0.026)
0.016
(0.020)
0.007
(0.019)
-0.008
(0.017)
-0.000
(0.014)
-0.011
(0.014)
26,302
0.0668
26,302
0.0724
26,302
0.0757
Note: Reporting marginal effects. Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and excluding
degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by approximately 1
percentage point compared to these results presented here.
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
2.4
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.8
1.6
0.9
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.5
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-0.4
Basic Controls
-0.4
-0.7
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
-0.8
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
2+ STEM A-levels/ 3+ total A-Levels
2 STEM A-levels/ 2 total A-Levels
1 STEM A-level/ 3+ total A-Levels
1 STEM A-level/ 1-2 total A-Levels
No STEM A-level/ 3+ total A-Levels
No STEM A-level/ 1-2 total A-Levels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
16
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
Table 13: Employment returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications
(Summary results -Men)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
0.038**
(0.017)
0.036
(0.024)
0.032
(0.020)
0.045**
(0.021)
0.007
(0.017)
0.015
(0.015)
-0.029*
(0.017)
0.032**
(0.016)
0.035
(0.023)
0.026
(0.019)
0.039**
(0.020)
0.003
(0.017)
0.015
(0.014)
-0.027
(0.017)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
0.028*
(0.017)
0.030
(0.022)
0.022
(0.019)
0.037*
(0.019)
0.002
(0.017)
0.013
(0.014)
-0.026
(0.016)
12,175
0.0615
12,175
0.0734
12,175
0.0801
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
Pseudo R-squared
Note: Reporting marginal effects. Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and excluding
degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by approximately 1/2 a
percentage point compared to these results presented here.
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
3.8
4.5
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.9
3.5
2.8
2.6
1.5
1.5
0.7
3.7
3.0
2.2
1.3
0.3
0.2
0.0
Basic Controls
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total Al evels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
17
2 │ Findings
Table 14: Employment returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications
(Summary results -Women)
Control Variable
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
-0.025
(0.031)
-0.071
(0.054)
0.009
(0.034)
-0.042
(0.033)
-0.022
(0.029)
-0.010
(0.024)
-0.004
(0.023)
-0.024
(0.031)
-0.072
(0.053)
0.003
(0.034)
-0.043
(0.033)
-0.023
(0.029)
-0.015
(0.024)
-0.000
(0.023)
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading scores
-0.028
(0.032)
-0.073
(0.054)
0.001
(0.034)
-0.046
(0.033)
-0.023
(0.029)
-0.015
(0.024)
-0.000
(0.023)
14,127
0.0239
14,127
0.0298
14,127
0.0326
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A level
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
At least 1 A level at grade A-C
Observations
Pseudo R-squared
Note: Reporting marginal effects. Standard errors clustered at the individual level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and excluding
degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by approximately 1/2 a
percentage point compared to these results presented here.
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
0.9
2.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-2.2
-2.5
-2.3
-2.4
-4.2
-6.0
-8.0
-1.0
-2.3
-2.8
-4.3
-7.1
Basic Controls
-1.5
-7.2
-1.5
-4.6
Basic Controls plus family/child
background
-7.3
Basic Controls plus family/child
background plus test scores aged 10
2+ STEM A levels/ 3+ total A levels
2 STEM A levels/ 2 total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
1 STEM A level/ 1-2 total A levels
No STEM A level/ 3+ total A levels
No STEM A level/ 1-2 total Al evels
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
18
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
2 │ Findings
BACKGROUND MATERIAL
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
19
Index of Tables, Figures and Boxes
Index of Tables, Figures and Boxes
Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table 7:
Table 8:
Table 9:
Table 10:
Table 11:
Table 12:
Table 13:
Table 14:
Table 15:
Table 16:
Table 17:
Table 18:
Table 19:
Table 20:
Table 21:
Table 22:
Table 23:
Table 24:
Table 25:
Table 26:
20
Model specifications and sets of control variables
Sample sizes
Earnings returns associated with A levels (Summary - Men and women combined)
Earnings returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Men)
Earnings returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Women)
Employment returns associated with A levels (Summary results - Men and women
combined)
Employment returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Men)
Employment returns associated with A levels (Summary results -Women)
Earnings returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications (Summary
- Men and women combined)
Earnings returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications (Summary
results -Men)
Earnings returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications (Summary
results -Women)
Employment returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications
(Summary results - Men and women combined)
Employment returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications
(Summary results -Men)
Employment returns associated with A levels in presence of additional qualifications
(Summary results -Women)
Earnings returns associated with A levels (Men and Women combined)
Earnings returns associated with A levels (Men)
Earnings returns associated with A levels (Women)
Employment returns associated with A levels (Men and Women combined)
Employment returns associated with A levels (Men)
Employment returns associated with A levels (Women)
Earnings returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment (Men
and Women combined)
Earnings returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment (Men)
Earnings returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Women)
Employment returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Men and Women combined)
Employment returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Men)
Employment returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Women)
2
3
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
22
25
27
29
31
33
35
38
41
44
47
50
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
ANNEXES
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
21
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Annex 1 Full econometric results
A1.1
Earnings – A levels as highest qualification
Table 15: Earnings returns associated with A levels (Men and Women combined)
Control Variable
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Less than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Female
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
PT employment
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
22
Basic Controls
0.242***
(0.063)
0.278***
(0.081)
0.124*
(0.067)
0.032
(0.058)
0.037
(0.046)
-0.320***
(0.017)
-0.132***
(0.048)
0.125***
(0.016)
0.014
(0.069)
-0.960***
(0.022)
0.088**
(0.034)
0.123***
(0.037)
0.076**
(0.039)
0.149***
(0.039)
0.197***
(0.037)
0.415***
(0.041)
0.196***
(0.035)
0.079**
(0.037)
0.095**
(0.045)
0.105***
(0.038)
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/ Age 10
Maths/ reading
scores
0.206***
(0.065)
0.226***
(0.081)
0.083
(0.066)
0.048
(0.058)
0.033
(0.046)
-0.315***
(0.017)
-0.104**
(0.047)
0.118***
(0.016)
0.041
(0.070)
-0.961***
(0.022)
0.069**
(0.035)
0.099***
(0.037)
0.057
(0.038)
0.126***
(0.039)
0.174***
(0.037)
0.376***
(0.040)
0.157***
(0.036)
0.042
(0.038)
0.074
(0.045)
0.128***
(0.038)
-0.008
0.164**
(0.066)
0.182**
(0.082)
0.052
(0.066)
0.052
(0.057)
0.043
(0.046)
-0.317***
(0.017)
-0.073
(0.049)
0.114***
(0.015)
0.062
(0.073)
-0.956***
(0.021)
0.076**
(0.035)
0.105***
(0.037)
0.055
(0.039)
0.136***
(0.039)
0.173***
(0.037)
0.386***
(0.041)
0.161***
(0.036)
0.054
(0.038)
0.078*
(0.046)
0.134***
(0.038)
0.005
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10: Skilled
manual or non-manual
Parental
occupation
at
age
Managerial/technical or professional
(0.036)
-0.017
(0.184)
0.078***
(0.019)
0.087*
(0.051)
(0.035)
-0.007
(0.186)
0.068***
(0.019)
0.080
(0.053)
0.069***
(0.024)
0.064***
(0.024)
0.101***
(0.029)
0.001
(0.052)
0.045
(0.038)
0.086**
(0.041)
0.104**
(0.045)
0.058
(0.054)
-0.039
(0.054)
-0.025
(0.040)
0.000
(0.043)
0.008
(0.047)
0.129**
(0.063)
-0.059
(0.136)
-0.077**
(0.031)
-0.039
(0.032)
-0.063*
(0.035)
-0.034
(0.087)
0.137
(0.160)
0.093***
(0.029)
-0.001
(0.053)
0.051
(0.038)
0.079*
(0.041)
0.095**
(0.045)
0.058
(0.054)
-0.027
(0.054)
-0.031
(0.040)
-0.014
(0.043)
-0.006
(0.047)
0.113*
(0.063)
-0.056
(0.134)
-0.079**
(0.031)
-0.041
(0.032)
-0.072**
(0.035)
-0.044
(0.087)
0.115
(0.163)
0.032
(0.027)
0.035
(0.029)
0.053
(0.034)
0.104
(0.125)
0.125***
(0.026)
0.130***
10:
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth: Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
23
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
(0.029)
0.166***
(0.032)
0.020
(0.127)
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Constant
Observations
R-squared
5.525***
(0.057)
5.445***
(0.078)
5.327***
(0.081)
8,489
0.487
8,489
0.498
8,489
0.504
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
24
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Table 16: Earnings returns associated with A levels (Men)
Control Variable
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Less than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
PT employment
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10:Skilled manual
or non-manual
Parental occupation at age 10:
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Basic Controls
0.123
(0.087)
0.195*
(0.111)
-0.001
(0.097)
0.107
(0.082)
0.112
(0.069)
-0.096
(0.065)
0.199***
(0.022)
0.036
(0.069)
-1.152***
(0.089)
0.099**
(0.046)
0.094*
(0.052)
0.135***
(0.051)
0.147***
(0.052)
0.250***
(0.048)
0.430***
(0.056)
0.247***
(0.047)
0.130***
(0.050)
0.138**
(0.056)
0.120**
(0.050)
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/
Maths and Reading
scores at age 10
0.097
(0.083)
0.145
(0.108)
-0.030
(0.093)
0.108
(0.080)
0.107
(0.065)
-0.077
(0.063)
0.191***
(0.022)
0.064
(0.072)
-1.173***
(0.089)
0.080*
(0.047)
0.080
(0.053)
0.121**
(0.051)
0.130**
(0.052)
0.227***
(0.048)
0.379***
(0.055)
0.204***
(0.048)
0.095*
(0.051)
0.135**
(0.057)
0.146***
(0.050)
-0.006
(0.043)
-0.212
(0.228)
0.090***
(0.026)
0.222***
(0.071)
0.075
(0.083)
0.129
(0.110)
-0.041
(0.091)
0.102
(0.080)
0.113*
(0.065)
-0.034
(0.065)
0.182***
(0.022)
0.077
(0.065)
-1.152***
(0.092)
0.096**
(0.047)
0.102*
(0.053)
0.131**
(0.052)
0.149***
(0.052)
0.240***
(0.049)
0.404***
(0.056)
0.224***
(0.049)
0.126**
(0.052)
0.145**
(0.058)
0.160***
(0.051)
0.022
(0.041)
-0.136
(0.225)
0.078***
(0.026)
0.230***
(0.075)
0.090***
(0.033)
0.112***
0.085**
(0.033)
0.110***
25
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Managerial/technical or professional
(0.040)
-0.103
(0.072)
0.090*
(0.047)
0.146***
(0.054)
0.172***
(0.058)
0.109
(0.074)
0.055
(0.074)
-0.046
(0.054)
-0.038
(0.060)
-0.023
(0.063)
0.109
(0.084)
0.010
(0.216)
-0.143***
(0.044)
-0.116***
(0.045)
-0.142***
(0.048)
-0.011
(0.095)
0.079
(0.142)
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth: Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Constant
Observations
R-squared
26
5.361***
(0.075)
4,134
0.273
5.296***
(0.104)
4,134
0.298
(0.040)
-0.100
(0.075)
0.095**
(0.047)
0.136**
(0.053)
0.164***
(0.058)
0.109
(0.073)
0.045
(0.074)
-0.051
(0.054)
-0.047
(0.060)
-0.028
(0.063)
0.090
(0.084)
0.003
(0.209)
-0.145***
(0.044)
-0.121***
(0.045)
-0.147***
(0.048)
-0.016
(0.093)
0.066
(0.146)
0.051
(0.037)
0.042
(0.041)
0.024
(0.049)
0.268**
(0.115)
0.098***
(0.037)
0.130***
(0.043)
0.118**
(0.046)
-0.220*
(0.115)
5.191***
(0.107)
4,134
0.306
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
Table 17: Earnings returns associated with A levels (Women)
Control Variable
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Less than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
PT employment
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Basic Controls
0.384***
(0.091)
0.348***
(0.117)
0.267***
(0.084)
-0.066
(0.077)
-0.032
(0.058)
-0.155**
(0.069)
0.042*
(0.022)
0.043
(0.155)
-0.929***
(0.023)
0.078
(0.051)
0.142***
(0.053)
0.017
(0.058)
0.141**
(0.058)
0.137**
(0.058)
0.405***
(0.060)
0.150***
(0.053)
0.034
(0.055)
0.061
(0.069)
0.092
(0.058)
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/ Maths
and Reading scores
at age 10
0.337***
(0.098)
0.306***
(0.118)
0.228***
(0.086)
-0.047
(0.076)
-0.037
(0.061)
-0.104
(0.068)
0.037*
(0.022)
0.048
(0.152)
-0.929***
(0.022)
0.060
(0.051)
0.117**
(0.053)
-0.006
(0.058)
0.121**
(0.058)
0.117**
(0.058)
0.371***
(0.059)
0.113**
(0.053)
-0.005
(0.056)
0.032
(0.069)
0.105*
(0.059)
-0.004
(0.056)
0.023
(0.447)
0.070**
(0.028)
-0.018
(0.071)
0.286***
(0.098)
0.258**
(0.116)
0.198**
(0.084)
-0.033
(0.074)
-0.043
(0.061)
-0.080
(0.070)
0.035
(0.022)
0.069
(0.175)
-0.921***
(0.022)
0.063
(0.053)
0.111**
(0.055)
-0.015
(0.058)
0.125**
(0.058)
0.095
(0.059)
0.360***
(0.060)
0.108**
(0.054)
-0.007
(0.057)
0.026
(0.071)
0.097*
(0.059)
-0.012
(0.055)
0.013
(0.443)
0.062**
(0.027)
-0.031
(0.070)
27
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Parental occ. age 10: Skilled manual/non-manual
0.049
(0.034)
0.089**
(0.041)
0.061
(0.071)
0.015
(0.058)
0.054
(0.062)
0.057
(0.068)
-0.000
(0.076)
-0.115
(0.077)
-0.003
(0.057)
0.028
(0.060)
0.037
(0.068)
0.148
(0.093)
-0.100
(0.156)
-0.020
(0.043)
0.028
(0.045)
0.005
(0.051)
-0.044
(0.146)
0.313
(0.472)
Parental occ. age 10: Managerial/technical/prof
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school – Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school – Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth: Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Constant
28
5.364***
(0.088)
5.259***
(0.115)
0.046
(0.034)
0.080*
(0.041)
0.051
(0.070)
0.016
(0.057)
0.044
(0.061)
0.038
(0.068)
-0.001
(0.075)
-0.103
(0.077)
-0.009
(0.057)
0.013
(0.060)
0.017
(0.068)
0.136
(0.091)
-0.072
(0.163)
-0.023
(0.042)
0.024
(0.044)
-0.012
(0.050)
-0.062
(0.147)
0.235
(0.472)
0.017
(0.038)
0.030
(0.039)
0.080*
(0.047)
-0.170
(0.179)
0.145***
(0.036)
0.118***
(0.039)
0.214***
(0.047)
0.358**
(0.181)
5.135***
(0.119)
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Observations
R-squared
4,344
0.420
4,344
0.431
4,344
0.440
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
A1.2
Employment– A levels as highest qualification
Table 18: Employment returns associated with A levels (Men and Women combined)
Control Variable
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Less than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Female
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Basic Controls
0.059
(0.038)
0.011
(0.035)
0.065*
(0.035)
-0.007
(0.028)
-0.045
(0.030)
-0.165***
(0.008)
-0.038
(0.028)
0.040***
(0.009)
0.027
(0.069)
0.020
(0.022)
0.028
(0.023)
0.047**
(0.023)
0.027
(0.023)
-0.004
(0.023)
-0.004
(0.025)
0.013
(0.022)
0.012
(0.023)
-0.004
(0.026)
0.001
(0.025)
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/
Maths and Reading
scores at age 10
0.056
(0.038)
0.002
(0.036)
0.058
(0.036)
-0.007
(0.028)
-0.041
(0.030)
-0.164***
(0.008)
-0.036
(0.029)
0.037***
(0.009)
0.034
(0.064)
0.009
(0.021)
0.019
(0.022)
0.036
(0.022)
0.018
(0.022)
-0.015
(0.022)
-0.013
(0.024)
0.000
(0.021)
0.000
(0.022)
-0.013
(0.025)
0.002
(0.024)
-0.038*
(0.022)
-0.150
(0.142)
0.038
(0.038)
-0.014
(0.036)
0.047
(0.035)
-0.004
(0.027)
-0.038
(0.029)
-0.163***
(0.008)
-0.027
(0.027)
0.033***
(0.009)
0.036
(0.063)
0.010
(0.021)
0.021
(0.022)
0.034
(0.022)
0.020
(0.022)
-0.015
(0.022)
-0.009
(0.024)
0.002
(0.021)
0.004
(0.022)
-0.011
(0.025)
0.003
(0.024)
-0.031
(0.020)
-0.176
(0.159)
29
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occ. age 10: Skilled manual/non-manual
Parental occ. age 10: managerial/technical/prof
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth: Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
30
0.035***
(0.011)
0.045*
(0.026)
-0.009
(0.012)
-0.021
(0.014)
-0.055*
(0.031)
0.012
(0.020)
0.037*
(0.022)
0.023
(0.023)
0.028
(0.026)
0.005
(0.032)
0.007
(0.020)
-0.007
(0.022)
0.020
(0.023)
-0.022
(0.033)
-0.031
(0.073)
0.030*
(0.018)
0.032*
(0.018)
0.036*
(0.019)
0.012
(0.042)
0.139***
(0.047)
0.031***
(0.010)
0.050**
(0.025)
-0.011
(0.011)
-0.025*
(0.014)
-0.055*
(0.030)
0.013
(0.020)
0.034
(0.022)
0.020
(0.023)
0.026
(0.026)
0.011
(0.031)
-0.001
(0.019)
-0.017
(0.021)
0.010
(0.022)
-0.028
(0.032)
-0.035
(0.074)
0.028
(0.018)
0.029
(0.018)
0.030
(0.019)
-0.002
(0.043)
0.145***
(0.043)
0.033**
(0.014)
0.027*
(0.015)
0.013
(0.018)
-0.053
(0.051)
0.044***
(0.016)
0.047***
(0.017)
0.075***
(0.019)
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Pseudo R-squared
Observations
0.073
12,975
0.080
12,975
0.080*
(0.041)
0.087
12,975
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
Table 19: Employment returns associated with A levels (Men)
Control Variable
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Less than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Low birthweight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birthweight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Basic Controls
0.041
(0.038)
0.040
(0.034)
0.040
(0.032)
-0.020
(0.028)
-0.047
(0.036)
-0.004
(0.021)
0.074***
(0.011)
0.004
(0.063)
0.025
(0.024)
0.043*
(0.024)
0.061***
(0.023)
0.027
(0.026)
0.038
(0.024)
0.016
(0.026)
0.027
(0.024)
0.021
(0.027)
0.014
(0.029)
0.007
(0.027)
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/ Maths
and Reading scores
at age 10
0.026
(0.036)
0.021
(0.032)
0.025
(0.031)
-0.013
(0.026)
-0.033
(0.031)
-0.005
(0.022)
0.073***
(0.011)
0.015
(0.054)
0.011
(0.020)
0.029
(0.020)
0.044**
(0.019)
0.018
(0.022)
0.023
(0.020)
0.001
(0.023)
0.008
(0.022)
0.009
(0.023)
-0.000
(0.025)
0.002
(0.023)
-0.023
(0.020)
-0.029
(0.077)
0.027***
(0.010)
0.009
(0.036)
0.012
(0.032)
0.020
(0.030)
-0.015
(0.026)
-0.026
(0.029)
0.002
(0.020)
0.069***
(0.011)
0.015
(0.054)
0.012
(0.020)
0.032
(0.021)
0.045**
(0.019)
0.022
(0.021)
0.026
(0.020)
0.007
(0.023)
0.012
(0.022)
0.013
(0.023)
0.003
(0.025)
0.003
(0.023)
-0.019
(0.018)
-0.011
(0.067)
0.023**
(0.010)
31
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10:Skilled
manual or non-manual
Parental occupation at age
10:Managerial/technical or professional
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth:Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
32
0.031
(0.022)
0.030
(0.020)
-0.014
(0.009)
-0.014
(0.009)
-0.021*
(0.012)
-0.046
(0.029)
0.001
(0.020)
0.027
(0.022)
0.011
(0.023)
0.024
(0.025)
0.031
(0.025)
0.010
(0.022)
0.016
(0.024)
0.022
(0.023)
-0.023
(0.036)
-0.007
(0.069)
0.032*
(0.018)
0.036*
(0.019)
0.040**
(0.019)
0.016
(0.043)
0.048
(0.037)
-0.022*
(0.012)
-0.045*
(0.027)
0.005
(0.021)
0.026
(0.022)
0.015
(0.024)
0.024
(0.025)
0.034
(0.025)
0.002
(0.020)
0.006
(0.022)
0.013
(0.021)
-0.036
(0.035)
-0.015
(0.070)
0.030*
(0.018)
0.033*
(0.018)
0.037**
(0.018)
0.004
(0.047)
0.040
(0.039)
0.013
(0.011)
0.006
(0.013)
-0.001
(0.016)
-0.046
(0.057)
0.002
(0.019)
0.034*
(0.019)
0.049**
(0.020)
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Pseudo R-squared
Observations
0.051
(0.038)
0.057
5,980
0.076
5,980
0.087
5,980
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/ Maths
and Reading scores
at age 10
0.104
(0.063)
-0.025
(0.061)
0.090
(0.062)
-0.010
(0.048)
-0.044
(0.047)
-0.052
(0.051)
-0.006
(0.014)
0.127
(0.100)
0.002
(0.035)
0.004
(0.037)
0.013
(0.038)
0.012
(0.036)
-0.067*
(0.038)
-0.038
(0.041)
-0.019
(0.034)
-0.022
(0.036)
-0.033
(0.041)
-0.001
(0.040)
-0.039
(0.035)
-0.322
(0.221)
0.042**
0.085
(0.064)
-0.047
(0.061)
0.074
(0.062)
0.000
(0.047)
-0.045
(0.047)
-0.044
(0.050)
-0.009
(0.014)
0.129
(0.097)
0.001
(0.034)
0.005
(0.036)
0.009
(0.038)
0.010
(0.035)
-0.070*
(0.037)
-0.034
(0.040)
-0.018
(0.034)
-0.018
(0.035)
-0.029
(0.040)
0.003
(0.039)
-0.031
(0.034)
-0.364
(0.227)
0.038**
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
Table 20: Employment returns associated with A levels (Women)
Control Variable
At least 2 STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
Less than 3 A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Basic Controls
0.098
(0.065)
-0.026
(0.061)
0.092
(0.061)
-0.003
(0.047)
-0.045
(0.047)
-0.065
(0.049)
-0.002
(0.014)
0.124
(0.107)
0.013
(0.036)
0.015
(0.037)
0.027
(0.039)
0.022
(0.037)
-0.055
(0.038)
-0.028
(0.041)
-0.004
(0.035)
-0.005
(0.036)
-0.021
(0.042)
-0.004
(0.041)
33
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10:Skilled
manual or non-manual
Parental occupation at age
10:Managerial/technical or professional
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth:Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
34
(0.017)
0.055
(0.045)
(0.017)
0.070
(0.044)
-0.006
(0.021)
-0.006
(0.020)
-0.021
(0.025)
-0.061
(0.049)
0.016
(0.033)
0.041
(0.035)
0.028
(0.038)
0.016
(0.045)
-0.037
(0.058)
0.012
(0.033)
-0.022
(0.036)
0.031
(0.038)
-0.008
(0.052)
-0.053
(0.125)
0.014
(0.028)
0.018
(0.029)
0.018
(0.031)
-0.002
(0.063)
0.237***
(0.063)
-0.026
(0.025)
-0.063
(0.050)
0.015
(0.033)
0.039
(0.035)
0.022
(0.038)
0.013
(0.045)
-0.024
(0.056)
-0.002
(0.032)
-0.036
(0.034)
0.015
(0.037)
-0.017
(0.050)
-0.061
(0.126)
0.013
(0.028)
0.017
(0.029)
0.013
(0.031)
-0.017
(0.064)
0.246***
(0.055)
0.048**
(0.023)
0.042
(0.025)
0.024
(0.030)
-0.094
(0.086)
0.076***
(0.024)
0.055**
(0.027)
0.092***
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
(0.031)
0.128*
(0.070)
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Pseudo R-squared
Observations
0.014
6,995
0.021
6,995
0.028
6,995
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
A1.3
Earnings – A levels combined with further attainment
Table 21: Earnings returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Men and Women combined)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
No STEM A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Highest qualification: AS levels or 1 A level
Highest qualification: 2+ A levels, Scot higher/6th
Highest qualification: Diploma
Highest qualification: Degree, PGCE, Other Degree level
Highest qualification: Higher Degree
Female
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
PT employment
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Basic Controls
Family and
Child
Background
Family and
Child
Background/
Maths and
Reading
scores at age
10
0.166***
(0.035)
0.069
(0.055)
0.100**
(0.044)
0.085**
(0.041)
0.080**
(0.036)
-0.049
(0.030)
0.067**
(0.028)
0.184***
(0.037)
0.130***
(0.027)
0.143***
(0.018)
0.324***
(0.016)
0.360***
(0.026)
-0.281***
(0.012)
-0.117***
(0.030)
0.122***
(0.011)
0.149*
(0.084)
-0.926***
0.140***
(0.035)
0.049
(0.053)
0.072
(0.044)
0.075*
(0.041)
0.054
(0.036)
-0.060*
(0.031)
0.069**
(0.028)
0.171***
(0.037)
0.117***
(0.027)
0.134***
(0.018)
0.295***
(0.016)
0.326***
(0.026)
-0.279***
(0.012)
-0.095***
(0.031)
0.116***
(0.011)
0.162*
(0.086)
-0.928***
0.123***
(0.035)
0.031
(0.053)
0.057
(0.044)
0.064
(0.041)
0.047
(0.036)
-0.065**
(0.031)
0.070**
(0.028)
0.155***
(0.037)
0.102***
(0.027)
0.133***
(0.018)
0.280***
(0.016)
0.310***
(0.026)
-0.278***
(0.012)
-0.069**
(0.032)
0.112***
(0.011)
0.179**
(0.085)
-0.925***
35
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10: Skilled manual or non-manual
Parental occupation at age 10: Managerial/technical or
professional
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
36
(0.016)
0.087***
(0.029)
0.103***
(0.030)
0.068**
(0.032)
0.104***
(0.030)
0.195***
(0.030)
0.397***
(0.030)
0.183***
(0.028)
0.041
(0.031)
0.032
(0.035)
0.103***
(0.031)
-0.816***
(0.037)
(0.016)
0.076***
(0.029)
0.090***
(0.030)
0.052
(0.032)
0.090***
(0.030)
0.176***
(0.030)
0.369***
(0.030)
0.157***
(0.028)
0.016
(0.031)
0.020
(0.035)
0.108***
(0.031)
-0.831***
(0.043)
-0.051*
(0.027)
-0.063
(0.138)
0.057***
(0.015)
0.077*
(0.040)
0.049***
(0.019)
(0.016)
0.078***
(0.029)
0.093***
(0.030)
0.050
(0.032)
0.097***
(0.030)
0.173***
(0.030)
0.375***
(0.030)
0.159***
(0.029)
0.021
(0.031)
0.023
(0.036)
0.105***
(0.031)
-0.841***
(0.044)
-0.038
(0.027)
-0.067
(0.137)
0.050***
(0.014)
0.059
(0.040)
0.042**
(0.019)
0.090***
(0.021)
0.014
(0.041)
0.026
(0.029)
0.082***
(0.031)
0.068**
(0.033)
0.042
(0.035)
0.011
(0.040)
0.010
(0.031)
0.016
(0.032)
0.027
(0.033)
0.081***
(0.021)
0.017
(0.040)
0.030
(0.029)
0.075**
(0.031)
0.062*
(0.032)
0.039
(0.035)
0.013
(0.040)
0.005
(0.031)
0.005
(0.032)
0.015
(0.034)
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Mother left school after 18
0.087**
(0.039)
0.047
(0.095)
-0.035
(0.024)
-0.013
(0.024)
-0.023
(0.026)
0.006
(0.055)
0.058
(0.127)
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth: Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Constant
Observations
R-squared
5.515***
(0.043)
17,916
0.490
5.413***
(0.059)
17,916
0.496
0.075*
(0.040)
0.047
(0.094)
-0.038
(0.024)
-0.016
(0.024)
-0.029
(0.026)
0.001
(0.055)
0.041
(0.126)
0.021
(0.021)
0.040*
(0.022)
0.024
(0.025)
0.101
(0.091)
0.130***
(0.021)
0.149***
(0.022)
0.165***
(0.024)
0.057
(0.092)
5.287***
(0.062)
17,916
0.500
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
37
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Table 22: Earnings returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Men)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
No STEM A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Highest qualification: AS levels or 1 A level
Highest qualification: 2+ A levels, Scot higher/6th
Highest qualification: Diploma
Highest qualification: Degree, PGCE, Other Degree level
Highest qualification: Higher Degree
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
PT employment
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
38
Basic Controls
Family and
Child
Background
Family and
Child
Background/
Maths and
Reading
scores at age
10
0.101**
(0.047)
0.016
(0.068)
0.070
(0.069)
0.077
(0.051)
0.015
(0.052)
-0.142***
(0.046)
0.105***
(0.039)
0.217***
(0.047)
0.117***
(0.039)
0.106***
(0.026)
0.275***
(0.023)
0.315***
(0.036)
-0.063
(0.044)
0.201***
(0.016)
0.201*
(0.108)
-1.125***
(0.064)
0.063*
(0.038)
0.044
(0.040)
0.092**
(0.041)
0.077**
(0.039)
0.227***
(0.039)
0.401***
(0.040)
0.078*
(0.047)
-0.005
(0.065)
0.032
(0.069)
0.068
(0.052)
-0.007
(0.052)
-0.153***
(0.046)
0.103***
(0.039)
0.191***
(0.047)
0.108***
(0.039)
0.097***
(0.026)
0.244***
(0.023)
0.279***
(0.035)
-0.036
(0.045)
0.194***
(0.016)
0.214*
(0.112)
-1.126***
(0.065)
0.057
(0.038)
0.036
(0.041)
0.075*
(0.041)
0.066*
(0.039)
0.213***
(0.039)
0.373***
(0.040)
0.076
(0.047)
-0.011
(0.064)
0.032
(0.069)
0.069
(0.052)
-0.005
(0.051)
-0.155***
(0.046)
0.101***
(0.039)
0.178***
(0.047)
0.095**
(0.039)
0.094***
(0.026)
0.235***
(0.022)
0.271***
(0.036)
-0.016
(0.046)
0.189***
(0.016)
0.222**
(0.109)
-1.113***
(0.066)
0.062
(0.038)
0.047
(0.041)
0.077*
(0.041)
0.075*
(0.039)
0.220***
(0.039)
0.382***
(0.041)
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10: Skilled manual or non-manual
Parental occupation at age 10: Managerial/technical or
professional
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth:Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
0.210***
(0.037)
0.050
(0.040)
0.019
(0.046)
0.061
(0.040)
-0.744***
(0.046)
0.187***
(0.037)
0.029
(0.040)
0.021
(0.046)
0.068*
(0.040)
-0.745***
(0.056)
-0.041
(0.037)
-0.250*
(0.143)
0.056***
(0.020)
0.078
(0.056)
0.071***
(0.026)
0.196***
(0.037)
0.044
(0.041)
0.027
(0.047)
0.073*
(0.041)
-0.733***
(0.057)
-0.024
(0.037)
-0.216
(0.140)
0.051**
(0.020)
0.074
(0.057)
0.062**
(0.026)
0.130***
(0.030)
0.046
(0.058)
0.029
(0.042)
0.097**
(0.046)
0.076
(0.047)
0.053
(0.052)
0.018
(0.060)
0.002
(0.048)
-0.006
(0.050)
0.023
(0.051)
0.073
(0.059)
0.098
(0.129)
-0.085**
(0.033)
-0.072**
(0.033)
-0.081**
(0.036)
-0.078
(0.081)
0.113
(0.113)
0.123***
(0.030)
0.050
(0.058)
0.032
(0.042)
0.094**
(0.046)
0.071
(0.047)
0.050
(0.051)
0.020
(0.059)
0.001
(0.048)
-0.009
(0.050)
0.021
(0.051)
0.076
(0.059)
0.083
(0.125)
-0.090***
(0.033)
-0.079**
(0.034)
-0.087**
(0.036)
-0.080
(0.080)
0.101
(0.112)
0.053*
39
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
5.399***
(0.056)
5.326***
(0.080)
(0.029)
0.067**
(0.030)
0.026
(0.035)
0.177*
(0.093)
0.123***
(0.028)
0.110***
(0.031)
0.106***
(0.034)
-0.067
(0.095)
5.206***
(0.083)
8,740
0.336
8,740
0.348
8,740
0.353
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Constant
Observations
R-squared
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
40
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Table 23: Earnings returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Women)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
No STEM A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Highest qualification: AS levels or 1 A level
Highest qualification: 2+ A levels, Scottish Higher
Highest qualification: Diploma
Highest qualification: Degree, PGCE, Other Degree level
Highest qualification: Higher Degree
Basic Controls
Family and
Child
Background
Family and
Child
Background/
Maths and
Reading
scores at age
10
0.264***
(0.049)
0.130
(0.089)
0.132**
(0.056)
0.049
(0.064)
0.132***
(0.049)
0.023
(0.038)
0.028
(0.037)
0.166***
(0.053)
0.139***
(0.038)
0.178***
(0.025)
0.372***
(0.022)
0.408***
(0.037)
0.238***
(0.050)
0.104
(0.088)
0.109*
(0.057)
0.045
(0.064)
0.107**
(0.049)
0.013
(0.039)
0.028
(0.037)
0.166***
(0.054)
0.129***
(0.038)
0.169***
(0.025)
0.346***
(0.023)
0.380***
(0.038)
0.213***
(0.050)
0.078
(0.089)
0.084
(0.057)
0.026
(0.065)
0.097**
(0.049)
0.007
(0.039)
0.029
(0.037)
0.149***
(0.053)
0.111***
(0.038)
0.173***
(0.024)
0.323***
(0.023)
0.355***
(0.038)
-0.154***
(0.039)
0.034**
(0.016)
0.147
(0.118)
-0.882***
(0.017)
0.114***
(0.043)
0.165***
(0.044)
0.050
(0.048)
0.136***
(0.047)
0.155***
(0.046)
0.399***
-0.136***
(0.041)
0.029*
(0.016)
0.167
(0.120)
-0.883***
(0.017)
0.102**
(0.043)
0.154***
(0.044)
0.038
(0.048)
0.124***
(0.046)
0.135***
(0.046)
0.376***
-0.105**
(0.041)
0.028*
(0.016)
0.179
(0.132)
-0.880***
(0.017)
0.099**
(0.043)
0.147***
(0.044)
0.029
(0.048)
0.128***
(0.046)
0.122***
(0.046)
0.378***
Female
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
PT employment
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
41
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
(0.045)
0.161***
(0.043)
0.038
(0.046)
0.057
(0.053)
0.142***
(0.046)
(0.044)
0.140***
(0.043)
0.011
(0.046)
0.037
(0.053)
0.147***
(0.046)
(0.044)
0.134***
(0.043)
0.006
(0.046)
0.034
(0.053)
0.137***
(0.046)
-0.059
(0.038)
0.240
(0.339)
0.061***
(0.020)
0.078
(0.056)
0.035
(0.026)
-0.054
(0.037)
0.206
(0.347)
0.055***
(0.020)
0.053
(0.055)
0.030
(0.026)
0.050*
(0.030)
-0.017
(0.057)
0.030
(0.040)
0.071*
(0.042)
0.065
(0.045)
0.025
(0.048)
0.004
(0.055)
0.016
(0.039)
0.035
(0.041)
0.026
(0.044)
0.105**
(0.052)
0.016
(0.125)
0.016
(0.033)
0.049
(0.034)
0.039
(0.036)
0.071
(0.075)
0.041
(0.029)
-0.014
(0.055)
0.031
(0.040)
0.058
(0.042)
0.050
(0.045)
0.018
(0.048)
-0.007
(0.054)
0.011
(0.039)
0.023
(0.041)
0.010
(0.044)
0.084
(0.052)
0.025
(0.126)
0.011
(0.033)
0.044
(0.034)
0.028
(0.036)
0.062
(0.074)
Northern Ireland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10: Skilled manual or non-manual
Parental occupation at age 10: Managerial/technical or
professional
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
42
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Age of mother at birth: Missing
-0.133
(0.333)
5.341***
(0.065)
5.199***
(0.086)
-0.144
(0.341)
-0.001
(0.031)
0.027
(0.032)
0.034
(0.035)
0.042
(0.139)
0.136***
(0.029)
0.168***
(0.031)
0.211***
(0.034)
0.154
(0.138)
5.071***
(0.090)
9,176
0.462
9,176
0.467
9,176
0.473
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Constant
Observations
R-squared
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
43
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
A1.4
Employment– A levels combined with further attainment
Table 24: Employment returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Men and Women combined)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
No STEM A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Highest qualification: AS levels or 1 A level
Highest qualification: 2+ A levels, Scottish Higher
Highest qualification: Diploma
Highest qualification: Degree, PGCE, Other
Degree level
Highest qualification: Higher Degree
Female
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
44
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/
Maths and
Reading scores at
age 10
0.010
(0.018)
0.000
(0.027)
0.008
(0.018)
-0.000
(0.026)
0.005
(0.018)
-0.004
(0.026)
0.024
(0.020)
0.013
(0.019)
-0.004
(0.017)
0.005
(0.014)
-0.014
(0.014)
0.002
(0.018)
0.038***
(0.012)
0.017*
(0.009)
0.019
(0.020)
0.009
(0.019)
-0.007
(0.017)
0.001
(0.014)
-0.012
(0.014)
0.000
(0.018)
0.035***
(0.012)
0.014
(0.009)
0.016
(0.020)
0.007
(0.019)
-0.008
(0.017)
-0.000
(0.014)
-0.011
(0.014)
-0.003
(0.018)
0.031**
(0.013)
0.014
(0.009)
0.056***
(0.007)
0.063***
(0.011)
-0.129***
(0.005)
-0.039**
(0.017)
0.031***
(0.006)
-0.095
(0.062)
0.011
(0.015)
0.013
(0.015)
0.028*
(0.016)
0.013
(0.015)
-0.018
0.053***
(0.007)
0.061***
(0.011)
-0.129***
(0.005)
-0.029*
(0.016)
0.029***
(0.006)
-0.081
(0.059)
0.008
(0.015)
0.009
(0.015)
0.024
(0.015)
0.009
(0.015)
-0.022
0.049***
(0.008)
0.057***
(0.011)
-0.128***
(0.005)
-0.023
(0.016)
0.028***
(0.006)
-0.080
(0.059)
0.007
(0.014)
0.009
(0.015)
0.023
(0.015)
0.010
(0.015)
-0.024
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10: Skilled manual or
non-manual
Parental occupation at age 10:
Managerial/technical or professional
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
(0.015)
-0.007
(0.015)
-0.007
(0.015)
-0.008
(0.015)
-0.007
(0.017)
0.009
(0.016)
0.000
(0.000)
(0.015)
-0.009
(0.015)
-0.012
(0.014)
-0.013
(0.015)
-0.012
(0.017)
0.012
(0.015)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.024
(0.015)
0.027
(0.083)
0.030***
(0.007)
0.022
(0.018)
(0.015)
-0.008
(0.015)
-0.012
(0.014)
-0.011
(0.015)
-0.012
(0.017)
0.010
(0.015)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.018
(0.014)
0.019
(0.090)
0.027***
(0.007)
0.021
(0.018)
0.005
(0.009)
0.004
(0.008)
-0.002
(0.010)
-0.027
(0.019)
0.002
(0.013)
0.014
(0.014)
0.011
(0.014)
0.005
(0.015)
-0.018
(0.022)
0.003
(0.014)
-0.005
(0.015)
0.014
(0.015)
-0.029
(0.018)
-0.023
(0.045)
0.021*
(0.012)
0.019
(0.012)
0.019
(0.013)
0.001
-0.005
(0.010)
-0.027
(0.019)
0.003
(0.013)
0.013
(0.014)
0.009
(0.014)
0.005
(0.015)
-0.016
(0.022)
-0.001
(0.013)
-0.010
(0.014)
0.008
(0.014)
-0.034*
(0.018)
-0.027
(0.046)
0.020*
(0.012)
0.018
(0.012)
0.017
(0.013)
-0.003
45
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Age of mother at birth: Missing
(0.027)
0.035
(0.090)
(0.027)
0.042
(0.088)
0.026**
(0.010)
0.020*
(0.011)
0.011
(0.012)
-0.020
(0.043)
0.030***
(0.011)
0.042***
(0.012)
0.046***
(0.013)
0.060
(0.037)
26,302
0.0724
26,302
0.0757
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Observations
Pseudo R-squared
26,302
0.0668
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and
excluding degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by
approximately 1/2 a percentage point compared to these results presented here.
46
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Table 25: Employment returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Men)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
No STEM A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Highest qualification: AS levels or 1 A level
Highest qualification: 2+ A levels, Scottish
Higher
Highest qualification: Diploma
Highest qualification: Degree, PGCE, Other
Degree level
Highest qualification: Higher Degree
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/
Maths and
Reading scores at
age 10
0.038**
(0.017)
0.036
(0.024)
0.032
(0.020)
0.045**
(0.021)
0.007
(0.017)
0.015
(0.015)
-0.029*
(0.017)
-0.023
(0.021)
0.032**
(0.016)
0.035
(0.023)
0.026
(0.019)
0.039**
(0.020)
0.003
(0.017)
0.015
(0.014)
-0.027
(0.017)
-0.027
(0.021)
0.028*
(0.017)
0.030
(0.022)
0.022
(0.019)
0.037*
(0.019)
0.002
(0.017)
0.013
(0.014)
-0.026
(0.016)
-0.029
(0.020)
0.008
(0.012)
-0.010
(0.010)
0.006
(0.012)
-0.012
(0.009)
0.002
(0.012)
-0.013
(0.009)
0.014**
(0.007)
0.009
(0.010)
-0.017
(0.014)
0.081***
(0.008)
-0.084
(0.061)
0.020
(0.017)
0.030*
(0.017)
0.047***
(0.017)
0.032*
(0.017)
0.029*
(0.017)
0.022
(0.017)
0.030*
(0.017)
0.027
(0.018)
0.010
(0.007)
0.004
(0.011)
-0.008
(0.013)
0.079***
(0.008)
-0.066
(0.056)
0.015
(0.016)
0.024
(0.016)
0.041***
(0.015)
0.026
(0.016)
0.022
(0.016)
0.016
(0.016)
0.022
(0.016)
0.022
(0.017)
0.007
(0.007)
-0.001
(0.011)
-0.002
(0.012)
0.077***
(0.008)
-0.068
(0.057)
0.018
(0.016)
0.028*
(0.016)
0.042***
(0.016)
0.030*
(0.016)
0.024
(0.016)
0.019
(0.016)
0.024
(0.016)
0.026
(0.017)
47
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10: Skilled manual
or non-manual
Parental occupation at age 10:
Managerial/technical or professional
Parental occupation at age 10: Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth: Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
48
0.021
(0.020)
0.017
(0.018)
0.000
(0.000)
0.015
(0.018)
0.017
(0.016)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.023
(0.015)
0.022
(0.027)
0.017**
(0.007)
0.014
(0.016)
0.019
(0.018)
0.017
(0.017)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.017
(0.013)
0.027
(0.023)
0.014**
(0.007)
0.012
(0.016)
-0.003
(0.008)
-0.004
(0.008)
-0.006
(0.009)
-0.026
(0.019)
-0.006
(0.012)
0.013
(0.013)
-0.002
(0.014)
0.006
(0.014)
-0.017
(0.021)
0.001
(0.014)
0.007
(0.015)
0.010
(0.015)
-0.012
(0.018)
-0.005
(0.032)
0.019
(0.012)
0.019
(0.012)
0.022*
(0.013)
-0.020
(0.033)
0.012
(0.040)
-0.008
(0.009)
-0.024
(0.018)
-0.004
(0.013)
0.013
(0.014)
-0.001
(0.015)
0.008
(0.014)
-0.015
(0.021)
-0.002
(0.013)
0.001
(0.014)
0.004
(0.014)
-0.018
(0.018)
-0.012
(0.033)
0.020*
(0.012)
0.019
(0.012)
0.021*
(0.012)
-0.024
(0.034)
0.010
(0.038)
0.021**
(0.010)
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
0.016
(0.011)
0.017
(0.012)
0.003
(0.038)
0.002
(0.012)
0.026**
(0.012)
0.020
(0.013)
0.018
(0.036)
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Observations
Pseudo R-squared
12,175
0.0615
12,175
0.0734
12,175
0.0801
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and
excluding degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by
approximately 1/2 a percentage point compared to these results presented here.
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
49
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Table 26: Employment returns associated with A levels in the presence of additional attainment
(Women)
Control Variable
2+ STEM A levels
2+ STEM A levels
1 STEM A level
1 STEM A level
No STEM A levels
No STEM A levels
At least 1 A level grade A-C
Highest qualification: AS levels or 1 A level
Highest qualification: 2+ A levels, Scottish Higher
Highest qualification: Diploma
Highest qualification: Degree, PGCE, Other
Degree level
Highest qualification: Higher Degree
Ethnicity(non white)
Married/cohabiting
Married/cohabiting - missing
North West
Yorkshire and Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
50
Basic Controls
Family and Child
Background
Family and Child
Background/
Maths and Reading
scores at age 10
-0.025
(0.031)
-0.071
(0.054)
0.009
(0.034)
-0.042
(0.033)
-0.022
(0.029)
-0.010
(0.024)
-0.004
(0.023)
0.025
(0.028)
0.072***
(0.021)
0.043***
(0.014)
-0.024
(0.031)
-0.072
(0.053)
0.003
(0.034)
-0.043
(0.033)
-0.023
(0.029)
-0.015
(0.024)
-0.000
(0.023)
0.023
(0.028)
0.066***
(0.021)
0.040***
(0.014)
-0.028
(0.032)
-0.073
(0.054)
0.001
(0.034)
-0.046
(0.033)
-0.023
(0.029)
-0.015
(0.024)
-0.000
(0.023)
0.019
(0.028)
0.061***
(0.022)
0.040***
(0.014)
0.102***
(0.013)
0.125***
(0.018)
-0.065**
(0.030)
-0.023**
(0.009)
0.008
(0.094)
-0.002
(0.023)
-0.006
(0.024)
0.004
(0.025)
-0.010
(0.024)
-0.073***
(0.025)
-0.042*
(0.025)
-0.049**
(0.023)
-0.048**
(0.024)
0.098***
(0.013)
0.125***
(0.017)
-0.055*
(0.030)
-0.027***
(0.009)
0.009
(0.092)
-0.006
(0.023)
-0.010
(0.024)
-0.003
(0.025)
-0.013
(0.024)
-0.076***
(0.025)
-0.044*
(0.024)
-0.054**
(0.022)
-0.056**
(0.024)
0.093***
(0.013)
0.121***
(0.018)
-0.049*
(0.030)
-0.028***
(0.009)
0.016
(0.090)
-0.007
(0.023)
-0.010
(0.024)
-0.003
(0.025)
-0.014
(0.024)
-0.079***
(0.024)
-0.042*
(0.024)
-0.054**
(0.022)
-0.054**
(0.024)
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Annex 1│ Full econometric results
Wales
-0.038
(0.027)
-0.005
(0.025)
0.000
(0.000)
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Low birth-weight (less than 2.5kg)
Low birth-weight - missing
Family owned house at age 10
House owned - missing
Parental occupation at age 10: Skilled manual or
non-manual
Parental
occupation
at
age
Managerial/technical or professional
-0.045*
(0.027)
0.000
(0.025)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.016
(0.023)
-0.008
(0.215)
0.044***
(0.012)
0.030
(0.031)
-0.045*
(0.027)
-0.001
(0.025)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.012
(0.023)
-0.027
(0.230)
0.041***
(0.012)
0.029
(0.031)
0.014
(0.015)
0.013
(0.015)
0.001
(0.017)
-0.022
(0.031)
0.009
(0.022)
0.016
(0.023)
0.024
(0.024)
0.002
(0.027)
-0.024
(0.037)
0.008
(0.023)
-0.011
(0.024)
0.022
(0.025)
-0.042
(0.030)
-0.048
(0.084)
0.019
(0.020)
0.016
(0.020)
0.013
(0.021)
0.022
(0.039)
0.097
(0.166)
-0.001
(0.017)
-0.023
(0.031)
0.007
(0.022)
0.012
(0.023)
0.021
(0.024)
0.001
(0.026)
-0.022
(0.037)
0.003
(0.022)
-0.018
(0.024)
0.015
(0.024)
-0.049*
(0.030)
-0.051
(0.084)
0.018
(0.020)
0.016
(0.020)
0.011
(0.021)
0.019
(0.039)
0.107
(0.160)
0.028*
(0.017)
0.020
(0.018)
10:
Parental occupation at age 10:Missing
Father left school at 15
Father left school at 16
Father left school at 17-18
Father left school after 18
Father left school - Missing
Mother left school at 15
Mother left school at 16
Mother left school at 17-18
Mother left school after 18
Mother left school - Missing
Age of mother at birth:20-24
Age of mother at birth:25-29
Age of mother at birth:30-39
Age of mother at birth:40 plus
Age of mother at birth: Missing
Reading test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Reading test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
51
0│
Reading test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
0.002
(0.020)
-0.047
(0.069)
0.051***
(0.018)
0.052***
(0.020)
0.066***
(0.021)
0.095
(0.059)
Reading test score at age 10 - missing
Maths test score at age 10 - 2nd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 3rd quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - 4th quartile
Maths test score at age 10 - missing
Observations
Pseudo R-squared
14,127
0.0239
14,127
0.0298
14,127
0.0326
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: London Economics' analysis of BCS70 data. Note that we undertook different model specifications - controlling for and
excluding degree level classification. When we control for degree level classification, we found that average returns declined by
approximately 1/2 a percentage point compared to these results presented here.
52
London Economics
The earnings and employment returns to A levels
Somerset House, New Wing, Strand,
London, WC2R 1LA, United Kingdom
info@londoneconomics.co.uk
londoneconomics.co.uk
@LondonEconomics
+44 (0)20 3701 7700