VII Liekkipäivä 2014, Tampere, Finland
Tuula Mäkinen
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Characteristics of the energy sector in
Finland
Versatile structure of energy production with high efficiency (30 % of electricity by CHP)
Indigenous energy sources cover only 1/3 of the energy demand, high share of RES 25 %
Energy intensive industry covers 50 % of the energy demand
• Total energy consumption 1464 PJ (407
TWh) in 2010
• Share of renewable energy sources 395
PJ (110 TWh), which is 27% of total energy consumption.
2

Three low carbon storylines – Tonni, Inno, Onni*
Different assumptions on Finland’s economic and community structures as well as on new technology RD&D
Starting point: GHG reduction target for
Finland and for the whole EU is -80% compared to the 1990 emission level.
The scenarios include all Kyoto GHGs as well as the GHG reduction technologies of the whole energy system
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The scenarios represent GHG reduction pathways with minimum costs
*The names “Tonni”, “Inno”, “Onni” are words in the
Finnish language. “Tonni” means tonne (ton), “Inno” is derived from innovation, whereas “Onni” means happiness
Figures Jutta Suksi

About fifty VTT researchers contributed in the project
Project duration from summer 2010 to November 2012
Finland’s economic structure and welfare by 2050 analysed in collaboration with the Government Institute for Economic Research
(VATT)
Scenario illustrations by Jutta Suksi
5

Tonni-Finland 2050
No significant changes in industrial, regional or urban forms, moderate new technology RD&D
6

Inno-Finland 2050
Fast technical RD&D, new industrial products and processes, centralized urban structure, ”smart-economy”
7

Onni-Finland 2050
Less energy-intensive industries and more service enterprices, decentralized regional structure
8

RD&D of clean technology makes Finland’s low carbon economy feasible
The baseline scenario includes current energy and climate policies incl.
Finland’s and the EU’s 2020 targets
In the Inno scenario the GHG reduction is 90%
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In terms of economic welfare there is not much choose between scenarios
Finland’s GDP growth needs to stem from technological change (only modest growth in labour supply was assumed)
Value added of industry and service sectors
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Industrial development strongly affects Finland’s energy balance
About 50% of electricity is consumed by industry
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The development paths of Finland’s forest sector strongly affects production of renewable energy
Assumed technical potentials of bioenergy: wood based biomass dominates
Consumption and production of transport biofuels in Finland. Technology push and incentives are needed to accelerate the investments in domestic production.
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How we live and move in low carbon Finland?
In Tonni, Inno and Onni the building stock and transport demands follow the assumed economic and community structures
Both urban and decentralized community structures feasible due to new technical solutions. Intelligent transport systems (ITS) and use of telecommunication services (ICT) reduces the need for and volume of transport.
Challenge: buildings we construct now will be with us for 50-100 years, transport needs will be increasing due to increasing commerce and other services
13

Development of the average specific heating energy consumption for space heating and domestic hot water in buildings -25….-50%
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Development of final energy consumption in the residential and service sector reduces 17-30% by 2050
The share of electricity dominates in all the scenarios
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Transport final energy consumption could be halved by 2050
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In the Inno scenario energy consumption of private cars reduce significantly due to efficient public transport

The future entails an increased variety of energy sources for the transport sector
Biofuels dominate in Tonni and
Onni scenarios
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Multiple solutions with diversified energy production and smart energy systems are needed
In the Inno scenario Finland is a net exporter of electricity
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Share of renewables in final energy consumption increases to 50-60 % by 2050 in low carbon futures
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Cost efficient GHG reduction calls for carbon capture and storage (CCS), ”negative” emissions from bio-CCS appear to have considerable prospects in Finland
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The share of domestic energy sources increases up to
70-80 % in low carbon scenarios (current share 50%)
Annual savings
4,6 mrd €
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Low Carbon Finland 2050 Platform (2012-13)
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NEED
Finland aims to an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 reflecting the EU policies.
This is a huge challenge. E.g. baseline scenarios predict even a 100% increase in global emissions by 2050.
Everybody is involved. An inefficient 80% reduction could mean regulations - for instance smaller living area per capita, or significant reductions to travelling due to extreme energy and fuel costs.
Instead of uncontrollable and undesirable changes, Low Carbon Finland 2050 Platform is looking for
alternative ways to achieve this goal with new solutions, promoting green growth.
APPROACH
Interactive and open Low Carbon Finland 2050 Platform aims to find effective pathways to a low carbon society.
BENEFITS
Our efficient transmission pathways are designed to create value for the whole society.
The foresight information will benefit different groups of stakeholders such as governmental institutions, policy makers, research organizations as well as Finnish companies.
For wider audience, the Platform will offer an opportunity for exchange and formulation of different ideas and visions through workshops, questionnaires and web pages.
COMPETITION
Instead of a narrow, sectoral approach, our multidisciplinary team can analyze the transition from a wide perspective, including economy, technology and natural resources.

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Scenarios are based on four different perspectives (Dator
1981: Judging the future)
1.
Continued growth
2.
Societal collapse
3.
A conserve society
4.
Transformational society
3 themes: industrial, service & natural resource societies
Challenges & opportunities
Future wheel
Future tables
Narrative storylines
4 scenarios
III Workshop 2.12.2013
Parameter tables & quantitative scenarios
Results in 4-6/2014