Chap. 10(a) Measuring Accounting Exposure • • • • Accounting or Translation Exposure Operating or Economic Exposure Transaction Exposure is both The Problem of Finding a Standard Accounting Measure • FASB 52 • Nov. 20, 2002 by William Pugh Accounting/ Translation Exposure • Motivation: Until now, we have assumed that any currency exposure was short-term and associated with some aspect of foreign trade. • This is Transaction Exposure . This exposure is usually associated with extension of trade credit by the seller to the buyer. Listed under accounts receivable (for the seller) or accounts payable (for the buyer). • More realistically, a MNC will have other assets and liabilities in another currency Accounting/ Translation Exposure Accounting/ Translation Exposure • Exposed Assets and Liabilities: those that will have valuation changes if currency rates change. • The chain also has peso liabilities: it owes its Mexican suppliers for 60 days worth of goods already shipped, and a Mexican bank is holding a (peso) mortgage on some of the buildings. • Motivation: Before we even decide whether to hedge exposure, we need to understand what the level of exposure is. • Example: McD’s (USA) has a Mexican subsidiary (McDonald's of Mexico). The Mexican chain's assets include real estate, inventory, cash (all valued in pesos). Accounting/ Translation Exposure • An easier example: You manage the Mex$ 1billion Mexico Fund. All of your assets are exposed to a depreciation as they are fully invested in Mexican stock and thus the peso. Your exposure is the total NAV of the fund. • Translation or Accounting Exposure: equals the difference between exposed assets and liabilities. The trick is to decide what is exposed and what is not. Sometimes called balance sheet risk. • What is at risk if the peso falls? • Assets fall after translating them into dollars: Certainly the pesos you are holding. Probably the inventory. What about the buildings? • Liabilities (payables and bank debt) fall in dollar terms, so it performs like a natural hedge. Operating/ Economic Exposure • Changes in the economic value of an enterprise as a result of an exchange rate change. This exposure is usually correlated to accounting exposure, but sometimes there is an inverse relationship. These gains or losses are often measured by estimating the impact on future cash flow. • Note that Transaction Exposure is usually found to be equally an example of both accounting and economic exposure 1 The Problem of Measurement • Consider the McDonald's above, with the following balance sheet: (in Mex$ Billions) Assets Claims Cash Equiv.. 10 payables 20 Inventory 30 S.t. Debt 50 Plant/Equip. 160 L.t. Debt 80 • Thus net worth is Mex$ 50 billion • Income Statement In Pesos (Mex$ Billions) Revenues 20 Expenses (10) thus net income is Mex$10 The Problem of Measurement • Translating the new net worth, and getting $4 billion, indicates a loss on the total investment of $1 billion. Here, the economic loss (cash flow) and accounting loss (net worth) are the same (20 percent). • 2) Suppose the Peso falls to eight cents over one year, but this time reflecting Mexican inflation of 25%. None assumed in case (1) • PPP would predict the new spot to be eight cents. (assume no U.S. inflation). The Problem of Measurement • The net worth, if maintained at historical cost stays the same in pesos, but is devalued in dollar terms. So in this example, we have no economic losses, but our accountants say the value of our Mexican assets is down by 20%. • 3) Suppose the Peso crashes to eight cents in one day as in (1), but the subsidiary is not a McDonald's but "El Dorado Silver Mining Company". Does your Mexican investment lose 20 percent as in (1)? The Problem of Measurement • Assume the peso is worth 10 cents at first, and all monetary assets and liabilities are in pesos. Thus net worth is Mex$50 billion or $5 billion (U.S.) and net income is $1 billion (U.S.) • 1) Suppose the Peso crashes to eight cents in one day. Does your Mexican investment lose 20 percent as well? In the short term, probably yes: your revenues, expenses, and net income should stay the same in peso terms, but when translated to dollars, should fall to $0.8 billion. The Problem of Measurement • Here the real exchange rate is unchanged. Do we use the same accounting procedure as in scenario (1)? Is there a dramatic loss to the American parent MNC? Maybe not. We assume your revenues, expenses, and net income will rise in peso terms, by the rate of inflation, to give a net income of 12.5 billion pesos. Converting the pesos to USD gives $1 billion, unchanged from a year ago. The Problem of Measurement • Assume most of the costs (labor, transport, interest payments are unchanged in pesos and thus fall in dollar terms. The difference this time is that revenues should hold steady in dollar terms since silver is sold on the world market. Thus, USD revenues hold at $20 billion, costs fall to $8 billion, net income rises from $10 to $12 billion! Here, you have an economic gain, but still an accounting loss. 2 The Problem of Measurement Summary:Prob. of Measurement • 4) Finally, back to the McDonalds, suppose the Peso holds at ten cents over one year, in spite of Mexican inflation of 25%. Again, PPP predicts a new spot to be eight cents. Since the peso is still tens cents, the real exchange rate of the peso has risen. • Case Comp. e1 Infl. Reale1 NetInc. NetWorth • Income in peso terms should rise by 25%, but with a steady exchange rate, the return translated to the USD also rises 25%. The accountants see no change in book value: an economic gain and no accounting change • The point of the above, is to demonstrate the difficulty of coming up with accurate accounting methods that will work reasonably well for different companies and different exchange rate shifts. The Problem of Measurement • This difficulty, in essence, ultimately caused the accountants to throws up their hands and cry, "forget it, just bury the change in the balance sheet": hence FASB 52 was born. • 1) McDon. $.08 none drop -20% -20% • 2) McDon. $.08 25% same same -20% • 3) Silver +20% -20% +20% same $.08 none drop • 4) McDon. $.10 25% rise FASB 52 • Various Accounting Approaches • Some U.S. Firms formerly used the • 1) Current / Noncurrent Method: Firm revalues only Current Assets and Liabilities. • 2) Monetary / Nonmonetary: Only Monetary items are readjusted (Cash, Accts. Receivables, Debts). Real Assets are presumed to keep previous value (inventory, fixed assets). Never was widely used in the U.S. FASB 52 FASB 52 • 3) Temporal Method: (basis of old FASB 8). Similar to Monetary /Nonmonetary, based on historical cost. Major difference is that INVENTORY may be revalued to current exchange rate. Under FASB-8, companies revalued their monetary-based items, plus inventories annually and then were required to list net gains or losses in valuation in the Income Statement. Made the income stream appear overly volatile. Firms hated it. • FASB 52 is based on the 4) Current Method, where all Assets and Liabilities are considered exposed and thus revalued annually to the current exchange rates. This is a very easy method: the only effect a currency change has is on the assets that are not offset by liabilities (such as debt), thus only net assets (or equity) is affected. 3 FASB 52 • Example: A French subsidiary of Exxon has FF 100 million in assets and FF 60 million in liabilities: the net translation exposure is also the net worth or FF 40 million. Suppose the FF falls from 16 cents to 14 cents, then the translation loss is $.02/FF times FF 40 million or $800,000. • Under the strict Current method, this loss would be subtracted from the Income Statement FASB 52 • British Firms usually use the current method Unfortunately, volatile currencies probably make the earnings stream look "noisier" than is probably warranted. • U.S. firms use FASB-52, where the loss is not reported on the income statement. FASB-52 has changes in net worth entered as a Balance Sheet item (not affecting net income), sometimes called a "Cumulative Translation Adjustment". Earnings are thus “smoothed” FASB 52 FASB 52 • FASB 52 replaced FASB-8, and 1) Kept accounting risk on Balance sheet, 2) Used the simplest accounting method (Current), 3) Reflects operating risk, in that foreign currency income streams are translated into the current exchange rate (sometimes using an average rate). A lower peso would cause net income (for McDonalds) to drop in dollar terms. (and rise for El Dorado Silver). • An advantage to the FASB-52 approach is that if the rate change is simply "noise" or temporary, the balance sheet item simply reverses at some future time and the income statement appears more stable than under, say any of the other reporting approaches . FASB 52 FASB 52 • Reporting Currency: This is the currency that the MNC headquarters uses to consolidate its global operations. Usually the currency of the nation where the headquarters is located. • Schlumberger is an exception (probably a lot of others) as they use the dollar although the firm is French. • Functional Currency: the currency that the subsidiary does most of its business. Each subsidiary (in a different country) will have to annually convert its accounting statement from its currency into the reporting currency. • McDonald’s (USA) will get income streams in many currencies. On would be the McDonalds in Mexico, where most activities are in Pesos. • This forms the consolidated income statement. 4 FASB 52 • If subsidiary does most of its business in the local currency, then simply use the current method under FASB 52 for translating the balance sheets. • In contrast, if most business is done in, say USDs, keep the books in dollars - and use FASB-8. Now translation gains (losses) now show up on the income statement. • E.g. assembly plant across the border in Mexico "maquiladoras”: USD is functional currency. FASB 52 • Second, if host country currency is experiencing very high inflation, (where the local currency is basically an unreliable measure of value) use the dollar as functional currency. • Use the dollar, even if you are running a local operation like a McDonalds (the workers probably wish they were getting paid in dollars). Again, use FASB 8. • McDonald’s in Russia? Argentina? 5