11/20/2012 Learning Objectives Chapter 9 Capital-Budgeting Decision Criteria Learning Objectives • Determine whether a new project should be accepted using the profitability index. • Determine whether a new project should be accepted using the internal rate of return. • Explain the importance of ethical considerations in capital-budgeting decisions. • Discuss the trends in the use of different capital-budgeting criteria. Capital Budgeting • • • • • Payback Period Net Present Value Profitability Index Internal Rate of Return Capital Rationing Discuss the difficulty of finding profitable projects in competitive markets. Determine whether a new project should be accepted using the payback period. Determine whether a new project should be accepted using the net present value. Capital Budgeting • Investments in fixed assets • An approach to source and evaluate profitable projects • Evaluating the profitability of projects • Often choosing between one or more projects Payback Period • Number of years needed to recover the initial cash outlay of a capital budgeting project • Deals with cash flows • Ignores the time value of money and does not discount these free cash flows back to the present. 1 11/20/2012 Payback Period Example: Project with an initial cash outlay of $10,000 with following free cash flows for 5 years. YEAR CASH FLOW BALANCE $ 2,000 ($ 8,000) 2 4,000 ( 3 3,000 ( 4 3,000 2,000 5 10,000 12,000 1 Payback Period • Ignores the time value of money and does not discount these free cash flows back to the present. 4,000) 1,000) Payback is 3 1/2 years Net Present Value or NPV • Present value of the free cash flows less the initial outlay • Gives a measurement of the net value of a project in today’s dollars • If NPV > 0, accept • If NPV < 0, reject NPV • Examines cash flows, not profits • Recognizes time value of money • By accepting only positive NPV projects, increases value of the firm Net Present Value or NPV Example: Project with an initial cash outlay of $40,000 with following free cash flows for 5 years. Yr FCF Yr FCF Initial outlay -40,000 3 13,000 1 14,000 4 12,000 2 13,000 5 11,000 The firm has a 12% required rate of return and the present value of the FCF’s is $47,678. Subtracting the initial cash outlay of $40,000 leaves an NPV of $7,678. NPV>0, therefore we accept. Profitability Index • Benefit-cost ratio • Ratio of the present value of the future free cash flows to the initial outlay • Generates same results as NPV • PI = PV FCF/ Initial outlay • PI > 1 = accept PI < 1 = reject 2 11/20/2012 Profitability Index Profitability Index FCF A firm with a 10% required rate of return is considering investing in a new machine with an expected life of six years. The initial cash outlay is $50,000. Profitability Index PI = ($13,635 + $6,608+$7,510 + $8,196 + $8,694 + $9,024) / $50,000 =$53,667/$50,000 = 1.0733 Project PI > 1 • Therefore, accept. Internal Rate of Return or IRR • Discount rate that equates the present value of a project’s future net cash flows with the project’s initial cash outlay • If IRR > Required rate of return, accept • IF IRR < Required rate of return, reject PV (@10%) Initial Outlay -$50,000 -$50,000 Year 1 15,000 13,635 Year 2 8,000 6,608 Year 3 10,000 7,510 Year 4 12,000 8,196 Year 5 14,000 8,694 Year 6 16,000 9,024 NPV and PI • When the present value of a project’s cash flows are greater than the initial cash outlay, the project NPV will be positive. • PI will also be greater than 1. • NPV and PI will always yield the same decision IRR and NPV • If NPV is positive, IRR will be greater than the required rate of return • If NPV is negative, IRR will be less than required rate of return • If NPV = 0, IRR is the required rate of return. 3 11/20/2012 Modified IRR IRR Purchase $3,817 Cash flows Yr.1=$1,000, Yr. 2=$2,000, Yr. 3=$3,000 Discount rate NPV 15% $4,356 20% $3,958 22% $3,817 IRR is between 22% because the NPV equals the initial cash outlay Calculating the MIRR • Project having a 3yr. Life and a required rate of return of 10% with the following cash flows: FCF’s FCF’s Initial Outlay -$6,000 Year 2 $3,000 Year 1 2,000 Year 3 4,000 Capital Rationing • Limit on the dollar size of the capital budget • Often a firm may select a set of projects with the highest NPV– subject to the capital constraint • May preclude accepting the highest ranked project in terms of PI or IRR • Primary drawback of the IRR relative to the net present value is the reinvestment rate assumption made by the internal rate of return • Modified IRR allows the decision maker to directly specify the appropriate reinvestment rate • MIRR> required rate of return: Accept • MIRR< required rate of return: Reject Calculating the MIRR • Step 1: Determine the PV of the project’s cash outflows. $6,000 is already at present. • Step 2: Determine the terminal value of the project’s free cash flows. To do this use the project’s required rate of return to calculate the FV of the project’s three cash flows of the project’s cash outflows. They turn out to be $2,420 +$3,300 + $4,000 = $9,720 for the terminal value • Step 3: Determine the discount rate that equates to the PV of the terminal value and the PV of the project’s cash outflows. MIRR= 17.446% > required rate of return: Accept Ranking Problems • Size Disparity • Time Disparity • Unequal Life 4 11/20/2012 Popularity of Capital Budgeting Techniques The Multinational Firm: Capital Budgeting Percent of Firms Using Each Method used PrimarySecondary Method Method Firms IRR NPV Payback PI 88% 63% 24% 15% 11% 22% 59% 18% Total 99% 85% 83% 33% Source: Harold Bierman, Jr.,”Capital Budgeting in 1992: A Survey,” Financial Management (Autumn 1993):24. • The key to success in capital budgeting is finding good projects • Often these projects are overseas in today’s global environment • Joint ventures and strategic alliances are current trends • Some companies have > 50% of their revenues from sales abroad How Do Financial Managers Use this Material? • If you don’t take on new projects, a company couldn’t continue to exist • Finding new projects and correctly evaluating them are key • Whatever decision made results in an investment in fixed assets • Process often called “strategic planning” but involves the Capital Budgeting Process 5