Streetbites from the media perspective The organization of mutual funds Lessons about the Structure of Finance Streetbites from the media perspective Mutual funds are collections of financial securities See textbook page 427 - 429 for related content on this topic. Video for Module 10, Unit 1-of-2 What is a mutual fund - an overview (5:40) Chapter 9.2C. Mutual funds Mutual funds are among the largest institutional buyers of financial securities in the U.S.A. Mutual funds collect money from many investors. The fund managers carefully analyze possibilities and use the money to buy assets. Quite often the managers select assets subject to guidelines that the mutual fund prospectus describes. The prospectus is an official document describing the mutual fund to prospective investors. The Securities Exchange Commission requires that the prospectus contains specific information such as mutual fund objectives and policies, risks that the fund faces, fees that investors pay, and investor services that the fund offers. The mutual fund balance sheet in table 9.7 provides insight on how a mutual fund operates. Lessons about the Structure of Finance ASSETS 2.4 million shares American Express 3.9 million shares Amgen, Inc. 0.6 million shares Anheuser-Busch 1.6 million shares Avon Products 0.1 million shares Black & Decker 15.9 million shares Cisco Systems 0.1 million shares Electronic Arts, Inc. 3.1 million shares Fannie Mae 0.1 million shares Genentech 14.8 million shares General Electric 15.0 million shares Intel 2.4 million shares IBM 5.4 million shares Johnson & Johnson 8.4 million shares Microsoft 4.4 million shares PepsiCo, Inc. 11.2 million shares Pfizer 0.7 million shares Starbucks Corp. 0.7 million shares United Parcel Serv. other equities & misc. assets Total assets ($millions) 84.9 187.2 31.3 84.9 5.9 208.9 3.1 LIABILITIES 223.2 Debt & misc. 7,743.2 Mutual fund shares (176.3 million) 199.5 3.8 360.1 233.7 184.2 291.6 435.9 186.8 343.2 14.2 44.3 5,062.9 _______ $7,966.4 $7,966.4 TABLE 9.7 Balance sheet for CREF Growth Mutual fund, historical snapshot The financial securities that mutual funds purchase almost always may be bought directly by households. Relative to direct ownership, however, households realize several advantages by owning mutual funds. (a) Diversification benefits accrue from ownership of mutual funds because each fund typically own dozens or more different security issues. Owning one share of a mutual fund represents indirect ownership of many different securities. (b) Investing in a mutual fund typically is easier and involves fewer transaction costs or commissions than investing directly in stocks and bonds. (c) Mutual funds hire talented professional investment managers. Most individual households cannot allocate as much time as a full-time fund manager collecting information and monitoring securities. (d) The astounding variety of mutual funds presents investors with access to a convenient mechanism for pursuing personal investment objectives. Even though two funds may hold exactly the same set of securities, fund characteristics may differ dramatically when each fund allocates among component stocks differently. The analogy is that there are many different ways to combine flour, sugar, and eggs – each combination tastes really different, too. Lessons about the Structure of Finance BS8 What does a mutual fund balance sheet look like? Which one of the following statements about the balance sheet of a mutual fund that advertises itself as a Telecommunications Fund is true? ANSWER: B a. the fund’s primary asset includes shares issued by the fund to investors such as you, me, or institutional investors b. the fund’s primary liability includes shares issued by the fund to investors such as you, me, or institutional investors c. the fund’s primary asset includes cash that it must pay to investors such as you, me, or institutional investors d. the fund’s primary liability includes equities issued by telecommunications companies such as AT&T, Sprint, etc. e. the fund’s primary liability includes cash that it must pay to investors such as you, me, or institutional investors Lessons about the Structure of Finance Chapter 11, Unit 1 of 2 The market price for risk Lessons about the Structure of Finance The behavior of individual balance sheet agents in financial markets reveals information pertinent to the risk for return tradeoff. See textbook pages 522 - 537 for relevant readings. Videos for Module 10, Unit 1-of-2 What is a mutual fund - an overview (5:40) Efficient frontier and price of risk (11:40) Required risk premium (1:27) Working with price of risk (3:02) [AP11b] Allocating between market and risk-free asset (5:14) [AP12, AP13] Loanable funds theory of risk-free ROR (6:17) Risk-free ROR and term premium (5:20) [AP15] Rays of correlation (3:35) Systematic risk premium for equity (7:02) [Example 2] E(ROR) A A B C B D 1 2 3 FIGURE 11.1 Risk-return profiles and the Efficient frontier The set of points along the upper surface in panel 3 made from the highest reaches of all component feasible allocation sets is the efficient frontier. DEFINITION 11.1 Efficient frontier The efficient frontier is the set of portfolios that are not dominated and that are formed from all possible risky capital investments. Lessons about the Structure of Finance ROR y r equi red RORMarket x market portfolio risk-free ROR efficient frontier capital market line σm σ FIGURE 11.2 Efficient frontier and the Capital market line DEFINITION 11.2 Capital market line The capital market line is the set of portfolios that combine the risky portfolio at point of tangency on the efficient frontier with the risk-free asset. Portfolios on the capital market line are not dominated by any other capital investments. Lessons about the Structure of Finance Interpretation now suggests that one specific portfolio on the efficient frontier is better than all others. That specific portfolio at the point of tangency is the market portfolio. Market portfolio components include all possible risky capital assets where the weight in any one equals that asset’s total market capitalization as a proportion of total global market cap. FORMULA 11.1 Market price for risk The slope of the capital market line measures the equilibrium price for risk. slope of the capital market line required RORMarket ROR riskfree σm market risk premium . %total market risk FORMULA 11.2 Required rate of return ROR required and component risk premia The “required rate of return” is the minimum discount rate that an investor willingly accepts for computing intrinsic value. The required rate of return for any capital required investment A denoted RORA equals the risk-free rate plus that asset’s risk premium: ROR required ROR riskfree security risk premiumA A risk-free where ROR is the short-term risk-free rate and tic risk sources ofidiosyncra systematic liquidity term default security f risk , risk , risk , risk risk premium A premium premium premium premium A A A A The implicit function f{.} depends upon all possible sources of systematic and idiosyncratic risk in ways that are not fully understood. The function shows one source of systematic risk (but there may be more) and three sources of idiosyncratic risk (these are the main ones but there may be more of these, too). The systematic risk premium relates directly to the market price for risk from the Capital market line. Security investment occurs when ROR required is less that RORexpected (see rule 9.1). Lessons about the Structure of Finance EXERCISES 11.1 1. Analysts tell you that the risk-free rate of return equals 5.0% and the market portfolio’s required rate of return and risk (standard deviation) equal 11.0% and 24%, respectively. Compute according to the Capital market line the equilibrium price for risk. For an increase in personal portfolio risk of five percentage points (and no extra diversification benefit) how much is the increase in required risk premium. AP11b . ANSWER: The market risk premium equals 6% (= 11% - 5%). Also, σm = 24% so slope of the capital market line equals 1/4 (= 6% ÷ 24%). The market price for one percentage point of risk is 25 basis points (= 1/4 × 1%) and for extra risk of 5% the increase in required risk premium is 1.25% (= 1/4 × 5%). Q1. What allocation between the risk-free asset and market portfolio creates a portfolio with risk σ of 10%? Exercise 11.1 #3 AP13 Quiz25 AP13 Find allocation in OR(risk-free asset, market portfolio) providing target σ The risk-free rate of return equals 2.5% and the market portfolio’s required rate of return and risk (standard deviation) equal 8.0% and 17.0%, respectively. Suppose that the equilibrium price for risk computes according to the Capital market line. Your objective is to combine the risk-free asset with the market portfolio in order to create a portfolio with standard deviation of returns equal to 3.4%. Find the allocation that satisfies your objective. a. Allocate 20.0% in the risk-free asset and you achieve the objective b. Allocate 23.0% in the risk-free asset and you achieve the objective c. Allocate 20.0% in the market portfolio and you achieve the objective d. Allocate 23.0% in the market portfolio and you achieve the objective e. Allocate 26.5% in the risk-free asset and you achieve the objective Q2. Find the return for that allocation. (Exercise 11.1 #2 AP12 modified) risk-free Preceding lessons establish that ROR is a core rate important for explaining financial equilibrium. Figure 11.3 shows supply and demand schedules driving risk-free determination of the short-term risk-free rate ROR . The explanation below is adaptation of a theory described by Irving Fisher in 1930 and coined the loanable funds theory of interest. Lessons about the Structure of Finance interest rate price D0 D1 S0 p0 p1 S1 p0 > p1 r0 r1 r1 > r0 q0 q1 quantity FIGURE 11.3 Supply and demand schedules for risk-free credit market securities Credit market competition for loanable funds: During an economic expansion companies borrow money for purchasing plant and equipment and other factors of production from stakeholders. Households, too, borrow money for improvements and competition for loanable funds heats up. Private sector borrowing crowds out the government and the demand curve D0 shifts left as private credit market securities substitute in portfolios for risk-free securities. For a given supply schedule S0 the risk-free equilibrium security price declines and equilibrium ROR increases (irrespective of supply schedule slope). Conversely, during economic contractions there are not many private credit market securities, risk-free securities become the only game in town, demand curve shifts right toward D1 risk-free and equilibrium ROR declines. Confidence or nervousness: Political and economic world events sometimes trigger a flight to quality. Risk-free Treasury securities are the safest, highest quality possible investment. Nervousness causes the demand curve to shift right, say to D1. For a given supply schedule S0 the equilibrium risk-free price rises and short-term risk-free rate ROR declines (irrespective of supply schedule slope). Conversely, an increase in buy-side confidence for alternative investments shifts the demand curve risk-free for risk-free securities left, equilibrium price falls, and equilibrium ROR rises. TR41 Find effects of shocks in loanable funds theory of interest The loanable funds theory of interest is useful for explaining the level of the risk-free interest rate. That model allows insights about effects of exogenous shocks upon movement in the riskfree rate. Find the statement that is most consistent with the loanable funds theory of interest. a. When an economic contraction causes a reduction in the availability of private credit market securities then, ceteris paribus, the equilibrium price for risk-free securities increases. b. When tax revenues are less than government expenditures and the Treasury issues new securities then, ceteris paribus, the equilibrium risk-free rate increases. c. When a major foreign world economy decides to sell-off their huge holdings of U.S. Treasury securities then, ceteris paribus, the equilibrium risk-free rate declines. d. When private companies increase their demand for loanable funds then, ceteris paribus, the equilibrium risk-free rate declines. e. When political and economic world events trigger a flight to high quality securities then, ceteris paribus, the equilibrium risk-free rate increases. Lessons about the Structure of Finance risk-free FORMULA 11.3 Nominal risk-free rate ROR and the inflation premium risk-free The observable short-term, very liquid, default free interest rate is nominal ROR . Relation between risk-free the rate for a risk-free security maturing in N periods (N ≥ 1), denoted RORN , and term risk premium approximates as follows: ROR riskfree N short term term risk premium real risk free for N period interest rate horizon For the special case when the inflation premium is the only component in the term risk premium: ROR riskfree N short term real risk free interest rate N t 1 (inflation rate)t . N The inflation premium equals the arithmetic average periodic inflation rate expected throughout term N. risk-free risk-free Short-term nominal risk-free interest rate ROR is identical to ROR1 . EXERCISES 11.2 1. The short-term real risk-free interest rate averages 3.0%. Suppose that expected inflation is 5.6% over the next year, 5.9% during the second year, and 6.2% thereafter perpetually. Inflation is the only component of the term premium for risk-free securities. Find today’s interest rates for risk-free securities with terms of 2 years, 4 years and 20years. ©AP15 . risk-free ANSWER: The risk-free rate ROR2 equals 3% plus the inflation premium of 5.75% [= (5.6% + 5.9%)/2] which is 8.75%. Inflation premium on a four-year bond is 5.7% [= risk-free (5.6% + 5.9% + 2 × 6.2%)/4] so ROR4 is 8.97%. The 20-year risk-free rate ROR20 risk-free is 9.15% [= 3% + (5.6% + 5.9% + 18 × 6.2%)/20]. Lessons about the Structure of Finance Open market paper 2% 6% U.S. government securities 8% Municipal securities 35% Corporate and foreign bonds 23% Mortgages 20% 6% Consumer credit Other credit market debt FIGURE 11.5 Components of U.S. credit market securities Notes: The credit market total is $57,982 billion at 9/30/2014. Data are from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Flow of Funds Accounts for the United States”, table L.4. Two procedures exist for adding risk premia to the risk-free rate and they usually lead to risk-free different answers. One approach adds risk premia to short-term ROR per formula risk-free 11.2. The other approach adds risk premia to RORN where N is the term of the credit market security under analysis. The difference pertains exclusively to handling the term risk premium. Lessons about the Structure of Finance Lessons about the Structure of Finance For the special limiting case when all sources of idiosyncratic risk distribute like whitenoise across all securities then diversification completely eliminates idiosyncratic risk. Only systematic risk remains in the market portfolio. For that special limiting case formula 11.2 simplifies as shown below. FORMULA 11.4 Systematic risk premium and the market price for risk The required rate of return for any capital investment A denoted RORA required equals risk-free short-term risk-free rate ROR plus that asset’s risk premium. When idiosyncratic risk may be eliminated completely through diversification and only one source of systematic risk exists then: ROR required A ROR riskfree ROR riskfree premium for security A systematic risk required RORmarket ROR riskfree ρA,Market σ A σ m market price . ρA,Market σ A for risk Rates of return for security A carry risk σA. Correlation between rates of return for A and the market portfolio equals ρA,Market. The market price for risk equals slope of the Capital market line and represents required return per unit of risk. The correlation coefficient ρA,Market measures the proportion of A’s risk that requires the market price for risk. EXAMPLE 2 Find required rate of return given the risk-free rate and summary statistics Suppose the risk-free rate on T-bills is 5% and the required return on the market portfolio is 12%. Suppose also that σm = 21% and that risk for security X is σx = 27%. Correlation ρX,Market between X and the market portfolio is 0.40. Find the risk premium and required rate of return for security X. SOLUTION The market price for risk equals the market risk premium of 7% (= 12% – 5%) divided by market risk σm and equals 1/3. Risk σx equals 27% and if each percentage point of risk received the equilibrium market price for risk then the risk premium for X would equal 9% (= 27% × 1/3). Because correlation ρX,Market equals 0.40, however, the risk premium only equals 3.6% (= 9% × 0.40). Thus, RORX Lessons about the Structure of Finance required is 8.6% (= 5% + 3.6%). ROR ρ = 1.0 required Capital market line Market portfolio r e qu i red RORMar ket RORx ρ = 0.83 •Y • required ρ = 0.5 • X risk-free • Z ROR ρ = -1.0 ρ = -0.33 σX σM ρ = 0.0 σ FIGURE 11.6 Capital market line and the rays of correlation Notes: Coefficient ρ measures correlation between rates of return for the market portfolio and a specific security. All securities with the same ρ are pushed onto the respective ray of correlation. Correlation coefficients between the market portfolio and securities X and Y equal 0.83. Consequently, their required rates of return align onto the same ray. Eighty-three percent of their respective risks, σx and σy, require compensation at the market price for risk. Because σx < σy required required required then RORX < RORY . For security Z the risk σz is even higher but RORZ equals risk-free ROR because Z is uncorrelated with the market portfolio and merits zero risk premium. EXAMPLE 3 Analyze two securities for by comparing ROR required with ROR expected You want to add one additional stock to your well-diversified portfolio and are considering two alternatives. Information about stock A leads you to believe that its expected rate of return is 10%, the standard deviation of expected returns is 38%, and that its correlation with the market portfolio is 0.35. For stock B those figures are expected ROR = 12%, σB = 32%, and ρB,Market = 0.90. The risk-free rate is 5%, the required return for the market portfolio is 11%, and σM = 22%. Determine which one of these securities, if either, should be added to your portfolio. SOLUTION Lessons about the Structure of Finance Rule 9.1 provides the investment decision rule to invest when expected rate of return exceeds required rate of return. For this example notice that stock A has lower expected return than B and also σA > σB. Figure 11.7 shows this situation. RORexpected 12% B A 10% 32% 38% σ FIGURE 11.7 Expected return and σ for example 3 Comparison of A directly with B suggests that B dominates A and that therefore B is a better choice for addition to the portfolio. That analysis is incomplete and wrong! Lessons above establish that σ does not properly measure risk relevant for determining risk premia due to existence of diversification benefits. The illustration of dominance in figure 11.7 is misleading. The portion of σ that represents relevant risk is measured by the correlation coefficient with the market portfolio. Use formula 11.4 to find required rates of return and subsequently compare them to expected rates of return. Compute that the market price for risk equals the market risk premium of 6% (= required 11% – 5%) divided by market risk σm and equals 0.2727. Compute that RORA equals 8.63% [= 5% + (0.35 × 38% × 0.2727]. Security A is a reasonable choice for expected required addition to a well-diversified portfolio because RORA > RORA . Compute that RORB required equals 12.85% [= 5% + (0.90 × 32% × 0.2727]. The 12% expected rate of return for B does not fully compensate for its relevant risk; that is, RORB required expected < RORB so do not buy B. Add security A to your portfolio. The impression from figure 11.7 that B dominates A is a mirage. Lessons about the Structure of Finance FORMULA 11.5 Beta and the Capital asset pricing model (“CAPM”) The required risk premium for any capital investment A equals required rate of return required risk-free RORA minus short-term risk-free rate ROR . When idiosyncratic risk may be eliminated completely through diversification and only one source of systematic risk exists then the ratio of security to market risk premia is βA systematic risk premium for security A risk premium for market portfolio covarianceA,Market 2 σ market . (11.5a ) Rearrange the top line and obtain a formula known as the Capital asset pricing model: systematic risk premium for security A ROR required A ROR riskfree required β A RORmarket ROR riskfree . (11.5b) βA measures proportion of market risk premium applicable to security A. EXERCISES 11.3 2. The economy wide risk free interest rate is 5.0% and the required risk premium for the market portfolio is 7.5%. At the same time, the company’s required risk premium according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model is 9.0%. What is the company’s ? ©AP4a . ANSWER: Ratio of security to market risk premium equals β and is 1.20 (= 9.0% ÷ 7.5%). DEFINITION 11.3 Security market line (SML) The Security market line is the graph showing the required rate of return as a linear function of the equity r e qu i red risk-free β. Slope of the SML equals the required risk premium for the market portfolio, RORMar ket – ROR . Figure 11.8 illustrates the Security market line. Lessons about the Structure of Finance RORrequired conservative aggressive Y RORYrequired requi red RORMarket X RORXrequired ROR risk-free βX 1.0 βY β FIGURE 11.8 The Security market line AP6b Find intrinsic value and make inference from CAPM and dividend growth model given simple setup The company’s beta is 0.85, its dividend growth rate is 9.1%, and just yesterday it paid a dividend of $0.90 . The economy wide risk free interest rate is 5.5%, and the expected risk premium for the market portfolio is 10.0%. Find the stock’s intrinsic value using the dividend constant growth model and the required rate of return implied by Capital Asset Pricing Model. Which statement is most accurate? a. Intrinsic value is $20.04 and if the stock price is $26.05 you should buy it b. Intrinsic value is $15.15 and if the stock price is $26.05 you should not buy it c. Intrinsic value is $15.15 and if the stock price is $16.03 you should buy it d. Intrinsic value is $20.04 and if the stock price is $16.03 you should buy it e. Intrinsic value is $17.43 and if the stock price is $16.03 you should buy it Lessons about the Structure of Finance