Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics The Competitive Eect of Multimarket Contact Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Northwestern Transportation Research Center, May 2012 Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Hello Thanks for coming! What is multi-market contact? Why should we care? Prots Welfare Regulation This paper - alternative take on MMC, and specically for the US Airline industry Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Hello Thanks for coming! What is multi-market contact? Why should we care? Prots Welfare Regulation This paper - alternative take on MMC, and specically for the US Airline industry Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Hello Thanks for coming! What is multi-market contact? Why should we care? Prots Welfare Regulation This paper - alternative take on MMC, and specically for the US Airline industry Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Hello Thanks for coming! What is multi-market contact? Why should we care? Prots Welfare Regulation This paper - alternative take on MMC, and specically for the US Airline industry Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Two Airline Markets Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics MMC in Airline Markets Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Multi Market Contact American, United and Continental serve most West-bound markets out of Memphis, but not all Does the degree of overlap between carriers aect how they compete? How would the United-Continental merger aect competition on the Memphis-Farmington market? How would the Delta-NW merger aect it? AA-US Airways? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Airlines Flight scheduling process sets capacities between spokes and hubs Also non-hub ights After the schedule is xed, sell tickets up to capacity (yield management) Same AA seat from Memphis to Dallas can be used for Memphis to Corpus Christi, Farmington and many other locations. Once the ight is full, can't add capacity If the ight isn't full enough, reduce prices Most seats in the AA ight from Memphis to San Antonio are used for this route. Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Airlines Flight scheduling process sets capacities between spokes and hubs Also non-hub ights After the schedule is xed, sell tickets up to capacity (yield management) Same AA seat from Memphis to Dallas can be used for Memphis to Corpus Christi, Farmington and many other locations. Once the ight is full, can't add capacity If the ight isn't full enough, reduce prices Most seats in the AA ight from Memphis to San Antonio are used for this route. Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Airlines Flight scheduling process sets capacities between spokes and hubs Also non-hub ights After the schedule is xed, sell tickets up to capacity (yield management) Same AA seat from Memphis to Dallas can be used for Memphis to Corpus Christi, Farmington and many other locations. Once the ight is full, can't add capacity If the ight isn't full enough, reduce prices Most seats in the AA ight from Memphis to San Antonio are used for this route. Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Language Carriers have dierent degrees of exibility with respect to a market Alternative use for the market's costly resources (seats) Carriers have dierent degrees of overlap with respect to their rivals on a market Which of United's markets are also served by AA? Carriers have dierent degrees of overlapping exibility Which of United's exible markets w.r.t. Memphis-Farmington are also served by AA? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Language Carriers have dierent degrees of exibility with respect to a market Alternative use for the market's costly resources (seats) Carriers have dierent degrees of overlap with respect to their rivals on a market Which of United's markets are also served by AA? Carriers have dierent degrees of overlapping exibility Which of United's exible markets w.r.t. Memphis-Farmington are also served by AA? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Language Carriers have dierent degrees of exibility with respect to a market Alternative use for the market's costly resources (seats) Carriers have dierent degrees of overlap with respect to their rivals on a market Which of United's markets are also served by AA? Carriers have dierent degrees of overlapping exibility Which of United's exible markets w.r.t. Memphis-Farmington are also served by AA? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Multi-Market Contact, Economics and This Paper Empiric evidence rms that overlap more seem to be less competitive with each other Current interpretation overlap facilitates mutual forbearance Firms that overlap much are more afraid to be competitive exibility increases competition, overlapping exibility cancels the eect This paper Multi-market rms that overlap much stop taking advantage of their rival's exibility Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Multi-Market Contact, Economics and This Paper Empiric evidence rms that overlap more seem to be less competitive with each other Current interpretation overlap facilitates mutual forbearance Firms that overlap much are more afraid to be competitive exibility increases competition, overlapping exibility cancels the eect This paper Multi-market rms that overlap much stop taking advantage of their rival's exibility Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Multi-Market Contact, Economics and This Paper Empiric evidence rms that overlap more seem to be less competitive with each other Current interpretation overlap facilitates mutual forbearance Firms that overlap much are more afraid to be competitive exibility increases competition, overlapping exibility cancels the eect This paper Multi-market rms that overlap much stop taking advantage of their rival's exibility Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Mutual Forbearance (has issues) Continental \ AA Soft competition Normal competition Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 Continental and AA prefer soft competition by both over normal competition by both But for whatever Continental does, AA maximizes prots by competing normally Making an eort to mutually reduce competition would save each rm 4 Serving many markets increases the stakes - making an eort to mutually reduce competition in 100 markets would save each rm 400 Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Mutual Forbearance (has issues) Continental \ AA Soft competition Normal competition Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 Continental and AA prefer soft competition by both over normal competition by both But for whatever Continental does, AA maximizes prots by competing normally Making an eort to mutually reduce competition would save each rm 4 Serving many markets increases the stakes - making an eort to mutually reduce competition in 100 markets would save each rm 400 Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Mutual Forbearance (has issues) Continental \ AA Soft competition Normal competition Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 Continental and AA prefer soft competition by both over normal competition by both But for whatever Continental does, AA maximizes prots by competing normally Making an eort to mutually reduce competition would save each rm 4 Serving many markets increases the stakes - making an eort to mutually reduce competition in 100 markets would save each rm 400 Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Why Does Flexibility Increase Competition? Suppose Continental tries to sell more seats in Memphis-CC AA will use its exibility to sell less seats in Memphis-CC, and more seats in Memphis-Farmington and CC-wherever. If AA wasn't exible, it would have to still sell the seats in Memphis-CC Continental doesn't serve those markets, so it doesn't internalize the eect Having an accommodating (exible) rival increases competition Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Why Does Flexibility Increase Competition? Suppose Continental tries to sell more seats in Memphis-CC AA will use its exibility to sell less seats in Memphis-CC, and more seats in Memphis-Farmington and CC-wherever. If AA wasn't exible, it would have to still sell the seats in Memphis-CC Continental doesn't serve those markets, so it doesn't internalize the eect Having an accommodating (exible) rival increases competition Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Why Does Flexibility Increase Competition? Suppose Continental tries to sell more seats in Memphis-CC AA will use its exibility to sell less seats in Memphis-CC, and more seats in Memphis-Farmington and CC-wherever. If AA wasn't exible, it would have to still sell the seats in Memphis-CC Continental doesn't serve those markets, so it doesn't internalize the eect Having an accommodating (exible) rival increases competition Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Why Does Flexibility Increase Competition? Suppose Continental tries to sell more seats in Memphis-CC AA will use its exibility to sell less seats in Memphis-CC, and more seats in Memphis-Farmington and CC-wherever. If AA wasn't exible, it would have to still sell the seats in Memphis-CC Continental doesn't serve those markets, so it doesn't internalize the eect Having an accommodating (exible) rival increases competition Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Flexibility Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Continental can go rst - set very high seat capacity in Houston-CC. If American will set normal capacity on Houston-CC, it will use most of its seats in routes from CC that are not served by Continental Because AA is more exible Continental can commit to be a strong competitor and AA chooses to be a soft competitor Why can't AA commit? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Flexibility Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Continental can go rst - set very high seat capacity in Houston-CC. If American will set normal capacity on Houston-CC, it will use most of its seats in routes from CC that are not served by Continental Because AA is more exible Continental can commit to be a strong competitor and AA chooses to be a soft competitor Why can't AA commit? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Flexibility Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Continental can go rst - set very high seat capacity in Houston-CC. If American will set normal capacity on Houston-CC, it will use most of its seats in routes from CC that are not served by Continental Because AA is more exible Continental can commit to be a strong competitor and AA chooses to be a soft competitor Why can't AA commit? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Flexibility Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Continental can go rst - set very high seat capacity in Houston-CC. If American will set normal capacity on Houston-CC, it will use most of its seats in routes from CC that are not served by Continental Because AA is more exible Continental can commit to be a strong competitor and AA chooses to be a soft competitor Why can't AA commit? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Intuition - Flexibility Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Continental can go rst - set very high seat capacity in Houston-CC. If American will set normal capacity on Houston-CC, it will use most of its seats in routes from CC that are not served by Continental Because AA is more exible Continental can commit to be a strong competitor and AA chooses to be a soft competitor Why can't AA commit? Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Flexibility vs. Mutual Forbearance Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Standard market outcome is normal-normal (Cournot) Mutual Forbearance - MMC moves outcomes in the direction of soft-soft (Joint monopoly) Flexibility - Asymmetric MMC moves outcomes towards strong-soft (Stackelberg) As overlap increases, outcomes move closer to the Cournot Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Flexibility vs. Mutual Forbearance Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Standard market outcome is normal-normal (Cournot) Mutual Forbearance - MMC moves outcomes in the direction of soft-soft (Joint monopoly) Flexibility - Asymmetric MMC moves outcomes towards strong-soft (Stackelberg) As overlap increases, outcomes move closer to the Cournot Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Flexibility vs. Mutual Forbearance Continental \ AA Soft comp. Normal comp. Strong comp. Soft competition 10, 10 5, 14 4, 8 Normal competition 14, 5 6, 6 2, 5 Strong competition 8, 3 5, 2 0, 0 Standard market outcome is normal-normal (Cournot) Mutual Forbearance - MMC moves outcomes in the direction of soft-soft (Joint monopoly) Flexibility - Asymmetric MMC moves outcomes towards strong-soft (Stackelberg) As overlap increases, outcomes move closer to the Cournot Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Setup What is the eect of changes in the sizes of the ellipse, square and triangle Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Model Two rms (A and B), three markets (o, A and B). Each rm serves its own market. Both rms serve the 'o' (overlapping) market. Inverse demand P (Q ; m) where Q is market quantity and m is a market parameter Two stages: 1 2 Each rm (j ) chooses its aggregate capacity: kA , kB , pays c · kj Each rm chooses the quantity it supplies to each market that is serves Quantities in the overlapping market: qA , qB Quantities in the private markets: q̂A , q̂B Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Model - Details For the most part, linear demand P (Q ; m ) = a − b ·Q m Think of mj as the number of equally sized markets Second stage quantities limited by rst stage capacity: qj + q̂j ≤ kj If MMC had no eect, MR = c and qA = qB = mo a−c q̂j = mj 2b Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela a−c 3b Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Questions Firm aggressiveness. Characterize c − MRj Degree of overlap for symmetric rms Fix mA = mB and mA + mB + mo . What are the eects of increasing mo Private markets for asymmetric rms Comparative statics with respect to mA Welfare maximizing distribution of the private markets Fix mo and mA + mB , what is the surplus maximizing mA Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Questions Firm aggressiveness. Characterize c − MRj Degree of overlap for symmetric rms Fix mA = mB and mA + mB + mo . What are the eects of increasing mo Private markets for asymmetric rms Comparative statics with respect to mA Welfare maximizing distribution of the private markets Fix mo and mA + mB , what is the surplus maximizing mA Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Questions Firm aggressiveness. Characterize c − MRj Degree of overlap for symmetric rms Fix mA = mB and mA + mB + mo . What are the eects of increasing mo Private markets for asymmetric rms Comparative statics with respect to mA Welfare maximizing distribution of the private markets Fix mo and mA + mB , what is the surplus maximizing mA Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Questions Firm aggressiveness. Characterize c − MRj Degree of overlap for symmetric rms Fix mA = mB and mA + mB + mo . What are the eects of increasing mo Private markets for asymmetric rms Comparative statics with respect to mA Welfare maximizing distribution of the private markets Fix mo and mA + mB , what is the surplus maximizing mA Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Two Economic Forces Flexibility - ability to react in the second stage to rival's strategy ∂ qj φj ≡ ≤0 ∂ q−j linear 1 demand:φ ∈ − , 0 2 Commitment power - ability to allocate rst stage deviation to the overlapping market σj ≡ ∂ qj ≥0 ∂ kj Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela linear demand:σ ∈ [0, 1] Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Two Economic Forces Flexibility - ability to react in the second stage to rival's strategy ∂ qj φj ≡ ≤0 ∂ q−j linear 1 demand:φ ∈ − , 0 2 Commitment power - ability to allocate rst stage deviation to the overlapping market σj ≡ ∂ qj ≥0 ∂ kj Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela linear demand:σ ∈ [0, 1] Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Symmetric Firms Theorem Suppose m0 = λ M and mA = mB = M · 1−λ 2 . Then: qj q̂j kj 3 3 + 10λ + 3λ 2 = = = qj∗ q̂j∗ kj∗ 9 + 26 · λ + 13λ 2 ∂ qj /qj∗ ∂λ ; √ R 0 ⇐⇒ λ Q 4 3−3 13 . Where q ∗ and k ∗ are the standard Cournot quantities Corollary Eect of overlap is non-monotonic Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Application - Symmetric Firm Growth / Mergers Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics The Overlapping Market with Asymmetric Firms Firm Share Increases in Rival's Private Market Size Firms' Quantity in the Overlapping Market Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Empirical Prediction If a carrier j has no exible markets with respect to ha, bi, its market share in ha, bi increases with the size of its rival's exible and non-overlapping markets w.r.t. ha, bi. sj ,r ,t = β ln [µj ,r ,t ] + γ Xj ,r ,t Limit attention to cases in which µj ,r ,t is a measure of mA . mB = 0 Use seats sold by j 's rival in route r for all the exible and non-overlapping markets the rival has with respect to market r and carrier j Same results with market counts and revenues Use US Domestic airline data (BTS DB1B) 1993 to 2010. Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Results Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Results - Detail Coecient on µjrt is positive and signicant A one percent increase in rival's exible, private, markets corresponds to a ~0.75 percentage point increase in the carrier's share, or about 1.5 percent change in revenue. Eect of rival's connected routes is negative and signicant Eect of market share in endpoints is positive and signicant Similar results when counting markets or revenue instead of seats More empirical work in a follow up paper Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Discussion Concerns about Mutli-Market Contact implications aect merger evaluation and regulatory involvement in markets Evidence for anti-competitive behavior is important Important to know if can actually be misinterpreting competitive behavior This paper - dierences in multi-market coverage (large private markets) increase competition Harder to evaluate merger implications Could be that Delta-NW and United-Continental are ne, but AA and US Airways would be bad Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics That's It ! Thank you Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition Introduction Multi Market Contact Formal Model Empirics Suggestive Evidence Data - Summary Statistics Market Share Rival's Flexible & Non-Overlap (ln['000]) Price ($) Cost ($) Endpoint Market Shares Rival's Connected (ln['000]) # of Non-Stop Carriers* # of Carriers* Herndahl Index* Daily Passengers on Route* Mean SD Min Max 0.49 -3.19 160 53 0.32 6.22 1.62 4.26 0.58 453 0.31 3.91 77 77 0.22 0.99 0.91 1.86 0.21 752 0.01 -6.91 0 0 0.00 -2.80 0 2 0 5 0.99 5.73 4113 12349 0.97 8.59 8 11 1 11,985 Unit of observation is a route-carrier-year-quarter. Sample includes only obs with no exible routes and with at least one rival on the route: 125,831 obs. (*) Unit of observation is a r-y-q; 78,454 observations. Guy Arie, Sarit Markovich, Mauricio Varela Multi-Market Competition