Source: IRS, Statistics of Income Division, Historical Table 23 US Top Marginal Tax Rate and Top Bracket Threshold 10000 Top MTR 90% Threshold/Averag e Income 80% 1000 70% 60% 100 50% 40% 30% 10 20% 10% 1 Source: statistics computed by the author 2008 2003 1998 1993 1988 1983 1978 1973 1968 1963 1958 1953 1948 1943 1938 1933 1928 1923 1918 1913 0% Top Bracket Threshold/Average Income Top MTR (Federal Individual Income Tax) 100% Top MTR (Federal Individual Income Tax) US Top MTR ordinary income vs. capital gains 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% Top MTR 10% Top MTR (capital gains) 10% 0% Source: statistics computed by the author 2008 2003 1998 1993 1988 1983 1978 1973 1968 1963 1958 1953 1948 1943 1938 1933 1928 1923 1918 1913 0% Source: Saez et al. (2010) Table A1. Top Federal Marginal Tax Rates Ordinary Income Earned Income Capital Gains Corporate Income Year (1) (2) (3) (4) 1952-1963 1964 1965-1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972-1975 1976-1978 1979-1980 1981 1982-1986 1987 1988-1990 1991-1992 1993 1994-2000 2001 2002 2003-2009 91.0 77.0 70.0 75.3 77.0 71.8 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 68.8 50.0 38.5 28.0 31.0 39.6 39.6 39.1 38.6 35.0 91.0 77.0 70.0 75.3 77.0 71.8 60.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 38.5 28.0 31.0 39.6 42.5 42.0 41.5 37.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 26.9 27.9 32.3 34.3 36.5 39.9 28.0 23.7 20.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 52 50 48 53 53 49 48 48 48 46 46 46 40 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 Notes: MTRs apply to top incomes. In some instances, lower income taxpayers may face higher MTRs because of income caps on payroll taxes or the so-called 33 percent "bubble" bracket following TRA 86. From 1952 to 1962, a 87% maximum average tax rate provision made the top marginal tax rate 87% instead of 91% for many very top income earners. From 1968 to 1970, rates include surtaxes. For earned income, MTRs include the Health Insurance portion of the payroll tax beginning with year 1994. Rates exclude the effect of phaseouts, which effectively raise top MTRs for many high-income filers. MTRs on realized capital gains are adjusted to reflect that, for some years, a fraction of realized gains were excluded from taxation. Since 2003, dividends are also tax favored with a maximum tax rate of 15%. US Top 0.01% Income Share and MTR (Piketty-Saez and Landais) 5.0% 100% Top 0.01% MTR 4.5% Top 0.01% Share 4.0% 2008 2003 1998 1993 0.0% 1988 0% 1983 0.5% 1978 10% 1973 1.0% 1968 20% 1963 1.5% 1958 30% 1953 2.0% 1948 40% 1943 2.5% 1938 50% 1933 3.0% 1928 60% 1923 3.5% 1918 70% Top 0.01% Income Share 80% 1913 Top .01% MTR (Federal Income Tax) 90% US Top 0.01% Income Share and MTR (Piketty-Saez and Landais) 5.0% 100% Top 0.01% MTR 4.5% Top 0.01% Share 4.0% log(share)=a+0.617 (0.077)*log(1-MTR)+e log(share)=a+b*t+0.666 (0.071)*log(1-MTR)+e 2008 2003 1998 1993 0.0% 1988 0% 1983 0.5% 1978 10% 1973 1.0% 1968 20% 1963 1.5% 1958 30% 1953 2.0% 1948 40% 1943 2.5% 1938 50% 1933 3.0% 1928 60% 1923 3.5% 1918 70% Top 0.01% Income Share 80% 1913 Top .01% MTR (Federal Income Tax) 90% A. Top 1% Income Share and Marginal Tax Rate 18% 60% 16% 50% 12% 40% 10% 30% 8% 6% 20% 4% 10% Top 1% Marginal Tax Rate Top 1% Income Share 2% 0% Source: satistics computed by the author B. Next 9% Income Share and Marginal Tax Rate 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 0% Top 1% Income Share Top 1% Marginal Tax Rate 14% 60% 30% 50% 25% 40% 20% 30% 15% 20% 10% 10% Next 9% Marginal Tax Rate Next 9% Income Share Next 9% Marginal Tax Rate B. Next 9% Income Share and Marginal Tax Rate 5% Next 9% Income Share 0% 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 0% FIGURE 1 Top Income Shares and Marginal Tax Rates, 1960-2006 Source: Updated version of Figure 8 in Saez (2004). Computations based on income tax return data. Income excludes realized capital gains, as well as Social Security and unemployment insurance benefits. The figure displays the income share (right y-axis) and the average marginal tax rate (left y-axis) (weigthed by income) for the top 1% (Panel A) and for the next 9% (Panel B) income earners. Table 1. Elasticity estimates using top income share time series Top 1% (1) Next 9% (2) 1981 vs. 1984 (ERTA 1981) 0.60 0.21 1986 vs. 1988 (TRA 1986) 1.36 -0.20 1992 vs. 1993 (OBRA 1993) 0.45 1991 vs. 1994 (OBRA 1993) -0.39 A. Tax Reform Episodes B. Full Time Series 1960-2006 No time trends 1.71 (0.31) 0.01 (0.13) Linear time trend 0.82 (0.20) -0.02 (0.02) Linear and square time trends 0.74 (0.06) -0.05 (0.03) Linear, square, and cube time trends 0.58 (0.11) -0.02 (0.02) Notes: Estimates in panel A are obtained using series from Figure 1 and using the formula e=[log(income share after reform)-log(income share before reform)]/[log(1- MTR after reform)-log(1- MTR before reform)] Source: Saez et al. (2010) Estimates in Panel B are obtained by time-series regression of log(top 1% income share) on a constant, log (1 - average marginal tax rate), and polynomials time controls from 1960 to 2006 (44 observations). OLS regression. Standard Errors from Newey-West with 8 lags. 18% Income Share(t) A+1.58*log[1-MTR(t)] 16% A+0.62*log[1-MTR(t)]-.018*t+.00077*t^2 Income Share A+0.62*log[1-MTR(1960)]-.018*t+.00077*t^2 14% 12% 10% 8% 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 6% FIGURE 5. The Top 1% Income Share and fitted Values from Elasticity Regressions Source: Series based on regression analysis presented in Table 3, columns (1) and (5). The diamond line is the top 1% income share. The dotted line is the fitted regression curve including only the net-of-tax rate. The solid line is the fitted regression curve including time controls. The dashed line is the same fitted regression curve but freezes the marginal tax rate at the 1960 value. Source: Feldstein (1995), p. 561 Source: Feldstein (1995), p. 565 Top MTR (Federal Individual Income Tax) US Top MTR ordinary income vs. capital gains 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% Top MTR 10% Top MTR (capital gains) 10% 0% Source: statistics computed by the author 2008 2003 1998 1993 1988 1983 1978 1973 1968 1963 1958 1953 1948 1943 1938 1933 1928 1923 1918 1913 0% US Top 0.1% Income Share and Composition 12% Capital Gains 10% Capital Income Business Income 8% Salaries 6% 4% 2% Source: Piketty and Saez QJE'03, updated to 2007 2006 2001 1996 1991 1986 1981 1976 1971 1966 1961 1956 1951 1946 1941 1936 1931 1926 1921 1916 0% Source: Goolsbee (2000), p. 365 Source: Goolsbee (2000), p. 365 The Top 0.01% US Income Share, Composition, and MTR 90% 80% 3.0% 70% 2.5% 60% 2.0% 1.5% Wages S-Corp. Partnership Sole Prop. Dividends Interest 40% Other MTR 30% 1.0% 50% 20% 0.5% 10% 0% 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 0.0% Source: Saez et al. (2010) Marginal Tax Rate for the top 0.01% Top 0.01% share and composition 3.5% US Top Marginal Tax Rate (Federal Individual Income Tax) 100% Top MTR (Federal Individual Income Tax) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Source: statistics computed by the author 2008 2003 1998 1993 1988 1983 1978 1973 1968 1963 1958 1953 1948 1943 1938 1933 1928 1923 1918 1913 0% US Top 0.1% Income Share and Composition 12% Capital Gains 10% Capital Income Business Income 8% Salaries 6% 4% 2% Source: Piketty and Saez QJE'03, updated to 2007 2006 2001 1996 1991 1986 1981 1976 1971 1966 1961 1956 1951 1946 1941 1936 1931 1926 1921 1916 0% Top 0.1% WAGE Share and Marginal Tax Rate in US 6% 70% 10% 0% Source: statistics computed by the author 2005 1% 2000 20% 1995 2% 1990 30% 1985 3% 1980 40% 1975 4% 1970 50% 1965 5% Top 0.1% WAGE Income Share Top 0.1% Share 60% 1960 Marginal Tax Rate Top 0.1% MTR Top 0.1% WAGE income Share and MTR in Japan 6% 70% 1% 10% 0% Source: statistics computed by the author 2000 20% 1995 2% 1990 30% 1985 3% 1980 40% 1975 4% 1970 50% 1965 5% Top 0.1% WAGE Income Share Top 0.1% Share 60% 1960 Marginal Tax Rate Top 0.1% MTR SOURCE IS LANDAIS '09 Charitable contributions as a % of total income and MTR on ordinary income Top .01% tax units, United States, 1915-2005 (fractiles computed by total income excluding capital gains) % of income 16% MTR 100% 90% MTR 14% contributions 12% 80% 70% 60% 10% 50% 8% 40% 6% 30% 4% 20% Note: MTR is for Federal Income Tax only 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 0% 1925 0% 1920 2% 1915 10% Introduction Research Design Estimation Welfare Conclusion I specifically focus on households located within 1 mile of the utility border Edison (Southern California Edison) provides electricity for the north side San Diego Source: Ito, (San 2011Diego Gas & Electric) provides electricity for the south side 19 / 69 Introduction Research Design Estimation Welfare Conclusion In contrast, they experience substantially different nonlinear pricing Edison and San Diego: Cents per kWh in 2002 25 Edison 20 San Diego 15 10 Monthly Consumption Source: Ito, 2011 22 / 69 DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison) Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers. 30 3 20 2 10 1 0 0 −10 −1 −20 −2 −30 −3 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Marginal Price Source: Ito, 2011 Average Price Consumption Difference−in−Differences in Consumption (%) Difference−in−Differences in Price (%) Panel A: Top Decile (90% - 100%) of Consumption Distributions DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison) Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers. 30 3 20 2 10 1 0 0 −10 −1 −20 −2 −30 −3 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Marginal Price Source: Ito, 2011 Average Price Consumption Difference−in−Differences in Consumption (%) Difference−in−Differences in Price (%) Panel A: Top Decile (90% - 100%) of Consumption Distributions DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison) Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers. 30 3 20 2 10 1 0 0 −10 −1 −20 −2 −30 −3 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Marginal Price Source: Ito, 2011 Average Price Consumption Difference−in−Differences in Consumption (%) Difference−in−Differences in Price (%) Panel A: Top Decile (90% - 100%) of Consumption Distributions DD = (mean % change in San Diego) - (mean % change in Edison) Relative changes for SDG&E customers relative to SCE customers. 30 3 20 2 10 1 0 0 −10 −1 −20 −2 −30 −3 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Marginal Price Source: Ito, 2011 Average Price Consumption Difference−in−Differences in Consumption (%) Difference−in−Differences in Price (%) Panel B. Fifth Decile (40% - 50%) of Consumption Distributions Introduction Research Design Estimation Welfare Conclusion Estimation results: Marginal Price v.s. Average Price 2SLS Estimates: Marginal Price vs. Average Price Distance from border 1 mile (1) ln(MP) 0.5 mile (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) -.087 -.007 -.092 -.009 (.007) (.015) (.011) (.020) ln(AP) -.112 -.108 (.006) (.013) Observations 6,513,600 -.121 -.114 (.011) (.017) 3,520,320 Dependent variable: ln(Electricity consumption) Standard errors are clustered at city-deciles levels Source: Ito, 2011 48 / 69 Figure 2. Two Decades of Danish Tax Reform Panel B. Marginal Tax Rate on Negative Capital Income 75 75 70 70 Marginal Tax Rate Marginal Tax Rate Panel A. Marginal Tax Rate on Labor Income 65 60 55 50 65 60 55 50 45 40 45 35 40 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Bottom bracket 1994 1996 1998 2000 Middle bracket 2002 2004 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Bottom bracket Top bracket Panel C. Marginal Tax Rate on Positive Capital Income Top bracket Panel D. Share of Taxpayers in the Three Tax Brackets 0.6 75 Share of all taxpayers (%) 70 Marginal Tax Rate Middle bracket 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Source: Kleven and Schultz '12 Bottom bracket Middle bracket 1998 2000 2002 2004 Top bracket 1984 1986 1988 Bottom bracket 1990 1992 1994 1996 Middle bracket 1998 2000 2002 2004 Top bracket Figure 6. Graphical Evidence on the Effects of the 1987‐reform on Taxable Income Source: Kleven and Schultz '12Panel A. Labor Income Labor income (ind dex 1986=100) 120 DD1 Elasticity = 0.214 (0.011) DD2 Elasticity = 0.257 (0.013) 115 110 105 100 95 90 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Treatment 1 1988 1989 Treatment 2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1991 1992 1993 Control Panel B. Positive Capital Income Positive Cap pital Income (index 1986=1 100) 130 DD Elasticity = 0.278 (0.063) 120 110 100 90 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Treatment 1988 1989 1990 Control Notes: Panel A considers the effect on labor income under two treatment group definitions using the grouping in Figure 3. Treatment 1 includes all groups in Figure 3 who experience an increase in the marginal net‐of‐tax rate on labor income as a result of the reform (1986‐1989 difference), while treatment 2 includes the same groups except those in the middle bracket ("stay middle" group in Figure 3) who experience a relatively small net‐of‐tax rate increase. The control group includes those groups in Figure 3 who experience a decrease in the marginal net‐of‐tax rate as a result of the reform. Panel B considers the effect on positive capital income based on the grouping in Figure 5, with the treatment (control) group defined as those who experience an increase (decrease) in the marginal net‐of‐tax rate on positive capital income resulting from the reform. In both panels, only taxpayers who are in the sample in every year of the period under consideration (1984‐1993) are included, and income levels in 1986 are normalized to 100 in both treatment and control groups (without loss of generality as identification come from percentage changes over time, not from absolute levels). that (1982‐1986) f b l l l ) Both h panels l show h h trends d are extremely l parallel ll l in i the h years prior i to the h reform f (1982 1986) and d start to diverge di precisely in 1987 which is the first year with tax cuts. Most of the effect of the tax reform takes place within a period of 3 years. The figure also reports basic difference‐in‐differences estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (standard errors in parentheses), comparing treatment and control groups over the 3‐year interval from 1986 to 1989. The estimates DD1 and DD2 in Panel A refer to treatment 1 and treatment 2, respectively. DD estimates in both panels are based on 2SLS regressions of log income on an after‐reform time dummy, a treatment‐group dummy and the log marginal net‐of‐tax rate, the latter variable being instrumented by the interaction of the after‐reform and treatment‐group dummies. Figure 1 : Total number of foreigners in different income groups Control #1: .8 to .9*threshold Control #2: .9 to .99*threshold Treatment: earnings> threshold DD elasticity: Long−term: 1.62 (.16) Short−term: 1.28 (.15) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Source: Kleven, Landais, Saez, Schultz QJE (2014) Control 1= annualized income between .8 and .9 of threshold Control 2= annualized income between .9 and .995 of threshold. DD specifications 16 18 A. Top 1% Share and Top Marginal Tax Rate in 1960−4 Top 1% Income Share (%) 8 10 12 14 Elasticity= .07 (.15) Germany Switzerland Netherlands Finland France Canada Japan Spain 6 Australia Sweden NZ Ireland US UK Italy Norway Portugal 4 Denmark 40 50 60 70 Top Marginal Tax Rate (%) Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014) 80 90 US Elasticity= 1.90 (.43) UK Canada Ireland Germany Norway Portugal Italy Spain Australia NZ France Japan Finland Switzerland Netherlands Sweden 6 Top 1% Income Share (%) 8 10 12 14 16 18 B. Top 1% Share and Top Marginal Tax Rate in 2005−9 4 Denmark 40 50 60 70 Top Marginal Tax Rate (%) Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014) 80 90 10 Change in Top 1% Income Share (points) 0 2 4 6 8 US Elasticity= .47 (.11) UK Ireland Portugal Norway Canada Italy Australia Spain NZ Japan Sweden Denmark France Finland Germany Switzerland Netherlands −40 −30 −20 −10 Change in Top Marginal Tax Rate (points) 0 10 Change in Top Tax Rate and Top 1% Share, 1960-4 to 2005-9 Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014) Top tax rates and top 1% income share 1960-2009 Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 33 / 62 Ireland Japan Portugal Norway Finland Spain Italy US Netherlands France Canada UK Australia Germany Denmark Sweden NZ Switzerland 1 GDP per capita real annual growth (%) 2 3 4 A. Growth and Change in Top Marginal Tax Rate −40 −30 −20 −10 Change in Top Marginal Tax Rate (points) 0 10 Change in Top Tax Rate and GDP per capita growth since 1960 Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014) Norway Ireland Japan US Netherlands Australia Italy Canada UK France Finland Germany Denmark Sweden Spain Portugal Switzerland NZ 1 GDP per capita real annual growth (%) 2 3 4 B. Growth (adjusted for initial 1960 GDP) −40 −30 −20 −10 Change in Top Marginal Tax Rate (points) 0 10 Change in Top Tax Rate and GDP per capita growth since 1960 Source: Piketty, Saez, Stantcheva AEJ-EP (2014) Top tax rates and average growth 1960-2009 Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities ) No or signi…cantly negative November 2012 36 / 62 3.5 A. Average CEO compensation Elasticity= 1.97 (.27) Italy Switzerland 2.0 Germany Canada United Kingdom Ireland Netherlands 1.5 Australia Sweden France 1.0 CEO pay($ million, log-scale) 2.5 3.0 United States Norway Belgium .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Top Income Marginal Tax Rate Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 50 / 62 3.5 B. Average CEO compensation with controls United Kingdom Australia 2.5 Italy United States Canada Ireland 2.0 Switzerland Germany Netherlands 1.5 Norway France Belgium Sweden 1.0 CEO pay($ million, log-scale) with controls 3.0 Elasticity= 1.90 (.29) .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Top Income Marginal Tax Rate Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 51 / 62 International CEO Pay: Governance Piketty, Saez & Stantcheva () Three Elasticities November 2012 53 / 62 US Top 0.1% Pre-­‐Tax Income Share and Composi:on 12% Capital Gains 10% Capital Income Business Income 8% Salaries 6% 4% Source: Piketty and Saez, 2003 updated to 2013. Series based on pre-tax cash market income including or excluding realized capital gains, and always excluding government transfers. 2011 2006 2001 1996 1991 1986 1981 1976 1971 1966 1961 1956 1951 1946 1941 1936 1931 1926 1921 0% 1916 2% Top MTR Top 1% (excl. KG) MTR K gains 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Year 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Marginal Tax Rates (%) Top 1% Share 0 0 Top 1% Income Shares (%) 5 10 15 20 25 Tax Avoidance: Top 1% Income Shares and Top MTR 0 Top MTR Bottom 99% 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Year 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Marginal Tax Rate (%) Top 1% 0 Real Income per adult (1913=100) 100 200 300 400 500 Top 1% and Bottom 99% Income Growth Top 1% (excluding Capital Gains) Top MTR 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Year 0 0 Top 1% Income Shares (%) 5 10 15 20 25 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Marginal Tax Rates (%) Top 1% Income Share and Top MTR 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Mean charitable giving of top 1% divided by mean income [leA y-­‐axis] 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 1990 1986 1982 1978 1974 1970 0% 1966 10% 1962 Mean charitable giving of top 1% incomes / mean income Charitable Giving of Top 1% Incomes Source: Appendix Table XX. The figure depicts average charitable giving of top 1% inomes (normalized by average income per family) on the left y-axis. 90% 25% 80% 60% 15% 50% 40% 10% 30% Mean charitable giving of top 1% divided by mean income [leA y-­‐axis] 20% 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 1990 1986 1982 1978 1974 1970 0% 1966 Top 1% Income Share [right y-­‐axis] 10% 5% 0% Source: Appendix Table XX. The figure depicts average charitable giving of top 1% inomes (normalized by average income per family) on the left y-axis. For comparison, the figure reports the top 1% income share (on the right y-axis). Top 1% income share 20% 70% 1962 Mean charitable giving of top 1% incomes / mean income Charitable Giving of Top 1% Incomes, 1962-­‐2012