School Roll Projections:
Ratios of pupils from new
build developments – a
direct method
Jennifer Boag
Senior Research Officer
Falkirk Council
September 2008
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Features of the Scottish education system


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Defined school catchments
Placing requests
Single annual P1 intake
Denominational and non-denominational system
Primary – aged 5-11; secondary aged 12+
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Falkirk school roll projections method



Project the number of P1s
Roll forward existing rolls
Add estimate of pupils from new build
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Why revise the pupil ratios?
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Previous ratios based on 1987 study
Concern about the number of pupils being
generated by new build developments
Increasing amount of new build in area
Complaint from developer about unilateral change
to ratio being used
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
New method of calculating pupil ratios (1)



Identify all new build developments under
construction or completed within the last 10 years
Match children on school rolls by address to new
build
Calculate the ratio of children to new build on
each development
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
New method of calculating pupil ratios (2)
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

First carried out in 1999
Repeated 2002 and 2005 – with increasing
sophistication
Planned repeat autumn 2008
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
New method of calculating pupil ratios (3)

Outcome of 2005 exercise – current ratios per
house
Pupil ratios
Houses
Flats
Primary
Secondary
NonDenominational NonDenominational
denominational (RC)
denominational (RC)
0.27
0.09
0.13
0.09
0.16
0.09
0.07
0.09
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
New method of calculating pupil ratios (4)



In 1999 only sites of 10 or more houses
considered
Extended to sites of four or more in 2002
Increased use of GIS to identify houses and flats
Falkirk Council
Example of housing sites information
Site
Developer
House
type
Addresses
House nos
Postcode
No of
units
Construction
dates
Completed
Drum Farm
1A
McTaggart & Meikle
Houses
Farmstead Way
1-29, 2-28
EH51 9RT
28
2001-2006
Yes
1B
McTaggart & Meikle
Houses
Acre View
1-49, 2-38
EH51 9RQ
43
2001-
No
1C
McTaggart & Meikle
Houses
Muirhouses Avenue
15
EH51 9DJ
1
2001-2006
Yes
1D
McTaggart & Meikle
Flats
Muirhouses Avenue
1-11
EH51 9DJ
6
2001-2006
Yes
1E
McTaggart & Meikle
Houses
Drum Farm Lane
23-41, 6-44
EH51 9RJ
30
2001-2006
Yes
1F
McTaggart & Meikle
Flats
Drum Farm Lane
1-21, 2-4
EH51 9RJ
12
2001-2006
Yes
1G
McTaggart & Meikle
Flats
Hillside Grove
11, 15
EH51 9RL
2
2001-2006
Yes
1H
McTaggart & Meikle
Flats
Hillside Grove
2-12
EH51 9RN
6
2001-2006
Yes
1I
McTaggart & Meikle
Houses
Wheatfield Road
1-29, 2-22
EH51 9RU
25
2001-
No
1J
McTaggart & Meikle
Houses
Hillside Grove
1-9, 17-103
EH51 9RL
49
2001-
No
1K
McTaggart & Meikle
Houses
Hillside Grove
14-74
EH51 9RN
31
2001-
No
2A
Ogilvie
Houses
Carriden View
1-9, 2-26
EH51 9DQ
18
2002-2004
Yes
2B
Ogilvie
Houses
Carriden Place
1-27, 2-16
EH51 9EU
21
2002-2004
Yes
2C
Ogilvie
Houses
Muirhouses Crescent
1-21, 2-52
EH51 9DH
36
2002-2004
Yes
2D
Ogilvie
Houses
Muirhouses Avenue
17-43, 2-16
EH51 9DJ
22
2002-2004
Yes
3A
Stewart Milne
Houses
Maryfield Drive
1-7, 2-18
EH51 9DG
13
2003-2005
Yes
3B
Stewart Milne
Houses
Muirhouses Square
1-5, 2-14
EH51 9DL
10
2003-2005
Yes
3C
Stewart Milne
Houses
Muirhouses Avenue
45-53
EH51 9DJ
5
2003-2005
Yes
Example of ratio tables
Site
Developer
McTaggart &
Drum Farm 1 Meikle
Drum Farm 2 Ogilvie
Primary
Secondary
No of
ND 1y
RC 1y
ND S1-S6
RC S1-S6
Postcode houses Pupils Ratio Pupils Ratio Pupils Ratio Pupils Ratio
Houses/ Construction
flats/plots
dates
Addresses
Nos
Flats
Houses
Flats
Houses
Flats
Houses
Houses
Flats
Houses
Flats
Houses
Houses
Houses
Houses
Houses
2001
1-21
23-41
2-4
6-44
1-11
15
1-9
11,15
17-75
2-12
14-60
1-21
2-26
1-29
2-28
EH51 9RJ
Houses
2002-2004
17-43
2-16
Muirhouses Crescent 1-21
2-52
Carriden Place
1-27
2-16
Carriden View
1-9
2-26
EH51 9DJ
Drum Farm 3 Stewart Milne Houses
Drum Farm Lane
Muirhouses Avenue
Hillside Grove
Acre View
Farmstead Way
2003-2005
Muirhouses Avenue
Muirhouses Avenue
Muirhouses Square
Maryfield Drive
EH51 9DJ
EH51 9RL
EH51 9RN
EH51 9RQ
EH51 9RT
EH51 9DH
EH51 9EU
EH51 9DQ
45-53 EH51 9DJ
1-5
EH51 9DL
2-14
1-7
EH51 9DG
2-18
10
10
2
20
6
1
5
2
30
6
24
10
13
14
14
167
0
2
0
1
0
2
1
2
2
1
0
0
1
1
2
15 0.090
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5 0.030
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
4 0.024
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
14
8
10
26
13
8
5
13
97
4
0
0
6
2
0
0
1
13 0.134
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
4 0.041
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
2 0.021
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
5
3
7
4
9
28
0
0
0
1
0
1 0.036
0
0
0
1
0
1 0.036
0
0
0
2
0
2 0.071
0
0
0
2
0
2 0.071
Pupil ratios from new build
New method of calculating pupil ratios (5)
Alternative methods of calculating ratios:
- Include all new build addresses
1. Dividing the total number of pupils in each
category living in new build addresses by the
total number of new houses.
2. Averaging all the individual site ratios for each
category of pupil.
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
New method of calculating pupil ratios (6)
- Only include those sites where there was at
least one child attending a school of any type
i.e. excluding all sites with no pupils.
1. Dividing the total number of pupils of each
category by the total number of houses on
sites with at least one child.
2. Averaging the site ratios of those sites with at
least one child of any category
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
New method of calculating pupil ratios (7)
1.
2.
Excluding sites where there are no pupils of
that category.
Dividing the total number of pupils of each
category living in new build by the total
number of houses on sites where there are
pupils of that category.
Averaging the individual site ratios for each
category of pupil where there were pupils of
that category.
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Results – for different types of ratios
ND primary RC Primary
Total children/total new build
0.216
0.046
Average of all sites
0.200
0.039
All sites with at least one pupil of any type
Total children/total new build
0.234
0.050
Average of all sites
0.248
0.048
All sites of that type with at least one child
Total children/total new build
0.238
0.068
Average of all sites
0.268
0.092
ND Sec
0.110
0.108
RC Sec
0.020
0.028
0.119
0.134
0.021
0.034
0.127
0.162
0.039
0.094
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Results – change over time (1)
Non-denominational primary schools
All pupils/total housing stock
Structure Plan allocations & sites
before planning applications
Large sites of large family houses
Flatted developments
Plotted developments
Housing Associations
1999
0.17
2002
0.16
2005
0.15
0.25
0.27
0.27
0.40
0.09
0.44
n/a
0.42
0.14
0.42
0.22
0.42
0.16
0.34
0.20
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Results – change over time (2)
Non-denominational primary schools
Broomage Avenue, Larbert
Kincardine Road, Carronshore
Carrongrange, Stenhousemuir
West Muirfield, Dennyloanhead
Inches, Larbert
Wallacebrae, Reddingmuirhead
Beaumont Drive, Carron
1999
n/a
0.42
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.43
2002
0.500
0.500
0.434
0.411
0.408
0.411
0.416
2005
0.567
0.523
0.437
0.398
0.361
0.359
0.337
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Results – differences by area 2002
Average of all non-zero
ratios in sites with children
of type
Falkirk
Grangemouth
Bo’ness
Larbert/
Stenhousemuir
Denny/
Bonnybridge
Braes
ND
Primary
RC
Primary
ND Sec
S1-S6
RC Sec
S1-S6
0.272
0.080
0.154
0.045
0.219
0.250
0.288
0.074
0.076
0.082
0.160
0.132
0.154
0.035
0.049
0.040
0.316
0.067
0.145
0.032
0.230
0.077
0.130
0.027
0.304
0.104
0.187
0.070
Falkirk Council
Pupil ratios from new build
Any questions?
Falkirk Council