Demographic Trends in
Religion
Eric Kaufmann,
Harvard University/
Birkbeck-University of London
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk
2 Aspects of Religion
1. Power of Religious Institutions over State
2. Individual piety
•
I focus on second aspect – tends to
affect the first
Past and Projected Global Religious Affiliation
(World Religious Database)
45
40
35
30
1900
25
1970
20
2000
15
2025
10
5
0
Christian
Muslim
Hindu
Nonreligious +
Atheist
Other
• Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians)
• Applying affiliation data to country demographic
projections
Church of England Baptisms as % of
live births
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Broad Trends
• Secularization: Catholic and part-Catholic
Europe + Canada/Australasia/’blue’ states
+ southern cone of Latin America + global
elite
• Stability: Protestant Europe +
USA+Hinduism
• Resurgence: Islam, Pentecostalism (Asia,
Latin America + Global South)
Demography is Key
• Inglehart: more are born in religious
countries, so make up a larger share of
global total. ***Send immigrants to
nonreligious countries
• Lesthaeghe: once everyone has access to
contraception and family planning, values
matter more for fertility
• Conclusion: Some may become secular,
but more will become religiously
conservative
Religiosity and Fertility:
Europe and USA
TFR
Austria 2001
Switzerland 2000
Roman Catholics
1.32
1.41
Protestants
Muslims
Others
Without
Total
1.21
2.34
1.44
0.86
1.33
1.35
2.44
1.74
1.11
1.5
United States, 2006
(GSS)
TFR
Wrong Not wrong
Diff
Homosexuality
2.5
1.98
0.52
Abortion
2.47
1.83
0.64
Will They Keep the Kids?
• Yes
• ‘Strict’ religions more successful in
inspiring commitment, retaining members
• High fertility + high retention = high growth
• Hutterites: 400 in 1880, 50,000 today.
From .7% to 3.3% of Canadian prairie
farm population, 1951-81
• Mormons: now outnumber Jews for those
born after 1945
Attendance at Religious Services, by Faith and Age,
RC
2004 ESS
Weekly Attendance
Prot
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
RC/Prot
Eastern
Muslims
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
•Muslims will grow from 3-5% of W. Europe’s population
to region of 12-15% by 2050
Projected Muslim Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios
Source: Goujon et al. 2006
Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36
Scenarios
Source: Goujon et al. 2006
Similar Dynamics
in USA
Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007
Attitudes to Shari'a and Fertility, Islamic Countries, by
Urban and Rural, 2000 WVS (Muslims Only)
3.5
Children Ever Born
3.3
3.1
city > 100k
2.9
town < 10k
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
Str. Agree
Agree
Neither
Disagree
Str. Disagree
Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561
respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia,
Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.
Conclusion
• Religious – especially conservative religious,
have larger families, retain members well
• State religious authorities matter more for fertility
in authoritarian societies; conservative
movements and individuals count for more in
democratic ones
• Expect a growth in conservative Islam, Judaism
and Christianity; Some erosion of moderate
religion; Only Catholic Europe will see much
secularization
Demographic Trends in
Religion
Eric Kaufmann,
Harvard University/
Birkbeck-University of London
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk