The entrepreneur’s mode of entry: what’s matter? The French case First draft Françoise Bastié Sylvie Cieply± Pascal Cussy+ Abstract: An extensive literature focuses on the decision to become an entrepreneur. At the micro level, this literature on occupational choices analyses the transition process from the statute of being employed into the statute of being self-employed. In this framework, entrepreneurship corresponds to the start of new ventures. However, entrepreneurship cannot be reduced to this mode of entry and the role of takeovers must be taken into account. In this paper, we focus on the determinants of entry’s mode. More precisely, we seek to investigate the process by which an entrepreneur decides to create a new venture or to buy an existing firm. We consider two categories of determinants: individuals’ characteristic and market specific factors. Our estimates of entry’s mode with the SINE database appear to be broadly consistent with our hypothesis concerning managerial skills, financial capital and marketspecific factors. Key-words: takeover, buyout, ex nihilo creation, human capital, social capital, financial capital, market-specific factors JEL Classification: D21, D82, L29. CREM Caen, UMR CNRS 6211, U.F.R. de Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université de Caen, esplanade de la paix, 14032 Caen cedex, France, francoise.bastie@unicaen.fr. ± CREM Caen, UMR CNRS 6211, I.U.P. Banque Assurance, Université de Caen, esplanade de la paix, 14032 Caen cedex, France, sylvie.cieply@unicaen.fr. + CREM Caen, UMR CNRS 6211, U.F.R. de Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université de Caen, esplanade de la paix, 14032 Caen cedex, France, pascal.cussy@unicaen.fr. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 1 1. Introduction A broad range of determinants explain entrepreneurship. Verheul, Audretsch, Thurik et alii. (2002) provide a useful “eclectic theory” that shows how various these determinants are. First, at the macro level, entrepreneurship is influenced by a range of environmental factors, such as economic development, globalisation, population growth, population composition by the age structure, the proportion of immigrants or women and policy measures. Then, at the meso level, market-specific factors influence entrepreneurship; profit opportunities in some sectors can indeed drive individuals to entry. The development of the service economy, the decrease of vertical integration and conglomeration since the mid1970’s and the development of clustering and regional industries lead to a decrease in mean firm size and may foster entrepreneurship. Finally, at the micro-level, an extensive literature focuses on the individual’ decision to become an entrepreneur. This academic research analyses the transition process from the statute of being employed into the statute of being self-employed. At the micro level, in quite all these studies, entrepreneurship corresponds to the start of new ventures. However, entrepreneurship cannot be reduced to this unique mode of entry. Parker and Van Praag (2006, pp. 1-2) assert: “… starting a new firm from scratch is not the only way individuals can become entrepreneurs. They can also take over an existing firm, including family business if they come from a business-owning family. One can therefore separate the mode of entry from the entry decision itself”. This question of the entrepreneur’s mode of entry is important in Western Europe. European entrepreneurs are indeed ageing so that, according to the European Commission (European commission, 2006); a third of European entrepreneurs should withdraw from their businesses over the next ten years. As a result, these business transfers should concern an annual average of 690.000 firms, affecting some 2.8 million employees. This radical increase in expected business transfers in the coming years should particularly affect the numerous family businesses, which form a key part of the European business community. This evidence leads the European Commission to recommend measures to support business transfers in order to avoid firms’ disappearances not because of a lack of competitiveness, but merely because of obstacles in the tax and legal environment or because of the lack of successors. Our research focuses upon this specific question of entry’s mode chosen by entrepreneurs. More precisely, we seek to investigate the process by which an entrepreneur decides to create a new venture or to buy an existing firm. This research belongs to the growing literature on occupational choice. This work finds a strong support in Parker and Van Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 2 Praag (2006) who develop the first theoretical and empirical model on mode of entry chosen by entrepreneurs. Their model predicts how several individual and firm-specific characteristics influence entrepreneurs’ mode of entry. In this model, ex nihilo new ventures are associated with higher levels of schooling and wealth whereas managerial experience, new venture start-up capital requirements and risks promote takeovers. Entrepreneurs whose parents run a family firm should invest the least in schooling insofar as schooling reduces search costs. Moreover, these entrepreneurs have the lowest probability of needing to search for a business opportunity outside their family. An empirical investigation on a sample of Dutch entrepreneurs provides broad support for this theory. In this model, which fits very well with the case of family firms, starting up a new venture from scratch is only perceived as an alternative to buying out an existing firm, in particular parents’ one : “ [...] entrepreneurs who are unmatched with any firm are forced to give up on entrepreneurship [...]”.The focus is the human capital associated with the choice of entry’s mode, and more precisely the number of schooling years before becoming entrepreneurs by either taking over an established business or starting a new venture. Our focus differs from Parker and Van Praag (2006). We indeed consider the case of an individual with given personal characteristics in a given environment who decides to become self employed. This individual must choose a mode of entry. To really consider the choice of an entrepreneur, we do not consider the cases of family transfers and Management Buy Out (MBO). In these two cases, entrepreneurs do not really choose a mode of entry: they reach an opportunity of buyout linked with either their family or the chance linked to their past experience without having ever considered the option to create a new firm from the scratch. Finally, we exclude all cases which concern the internal market of firms’ transfers and we only focus on external transfers of firms we compare with ex nihilo starts of new ventures. Our study seeks to extend prior research in 3 ways. First, we underline the diversity of entry’s modes for entrepreneurs in the French context. Second, we test, on a sample of individual data; the lessons given by the theory of occupational choice on the way entrepreneurs choose to enter: start up or buy out. Third, we look for the respective roles of individuals’ characteristics, projects’ nature and sectorial determinants on individuals’ choice of entry’s mode. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 defines determinants of entry’s modes. We relate our analysis on the theory of occupational choice which explains why individuals Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 3 become self-employed. Section 3 describes the data (the French Sine database produced by the French National Institute of Statistical and Economic Studies), the variables we used and the models that are used to distinguish the kind of entry. The empirical models are tested from a sample of new firms (ex nihilo new firms or takeovers) which had been set up or taken over in 1998. Section 4 discusses the results of the empirical models. The results reveal that factors both at the micro and meso levels determine the way individuals become entrepreneurs. These results are in accordance with main theoretical backgrounds. Section 5 concludes and summarizes the main findings. 2. The determinants of entry’s mode : theoretical backgrounds and testable hypotheses The economic theory has addressed the causes of entrepreneurship. At the micro level, the theory of occupational choice identifies the driving forces behind becoming entrepreneurs. This academic literature stresses the role of human capital (Cressy, 1996, Bates, 1997, Greene, Rosen, 1994), social capital (Anderson, Miller, 2002, Anderson and Jack, 2002) and financial capital (Evans, Jovanovic, 1989, Holtz-Eakin, Joulfaian, Rosen, 2000). Studies at the meso level focus on market-specific factors such as profit opportunities and opportunities for entry and exit (Carree, Thurik, 1996). In this article, we derive from these studies what could drive the individual’s choice of a specific mode of entry. More precisely, we identify factors that may explain why an entrepreneur chooses to buy an existing firm rather than start a new venture. We derive from this analysis testable hypotheses on determinants of entry’s mode by entrepreneurs. 2.1. Human and social capital Human capital is defined as an investment in skills and knowledge that boots earning power (Becker, 1964). Human capital refers in general to owners’ characteristics, in particular education, workplace experience and family ties (Bates, 1997, Green, 2000). A high human capital corresponds to a high degree level or/and a past experience close to the activity the individual wants to develop. It is generally well admitted that human capital matters in entrepreneurship. For example, Montgomery, Johnson and Faisal (2005) show that human capital increases the probability of pursuing self-employment. Human capital matters above all because of past experience. Research on education’s impact on entrepreneurship has been indeed rather inconclusive. Some studies have found that better educated people are the most likely to become entrepreneurs (Bates, 1997). However, in some others, education was Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 4 negatively related to self-employment (Bulter, Herring, 1991). The effect of work experience or entrepreneurial capital (Aldrich, Renzilli, Langton, 1998) is less controversial. Entrepreneurial capital refers to experience and skills associated with business ownership and managerial experience. Kim, Aldrich and Keister (2003) decompose the concept of work experience into four components: general full-time work experience, managerial experience, previous start-up, and current self-employment. Researchers suggest that all kinds of work experience increase the likelihood of becoming entrepreneurs. Human capital can influence the choice of entry’s mode by an individual too. For Ucbasaram, Westead and Wright (2007), identifying new business opportunities requires different abilities than managing business opportunities. According to these authors, a high level of human capital permits to identify new markets or markets with high opportunities of profit. The required abilities are high formal education and prior experiences which ensure that entrepreneurs own “cognitive abilities” and better know where they must look for. As business transfers concern most often and more probably than starts-up existing markets and traditional activities, we expect to verify the following hypothesis. H1: Entrepreneurs with high level of human capital (education and general full-time work experience) are more inclined to start a new firm than to buy an existing one. Buying an existing firm requires other form of human capital than formal education and general full-time work experience. By nature, an existing firm is on average larger than a start up. The number of salaries, shareholders, customers and providers are higher so that entrepreneurs’ abilities in management can be expected to be a significant comparative advantage when entrepreneurs choose to take over an existing firm. Furthermore, entrepreneurial decision depends on two types of knowledge: market conditions and managerial skills. Before entry, an individual does not know perfectly his own managerial skills. In order to manage uncertainty, he can choose to penetrate the market with a smaller size less than optimal. After entry, if he learns that market conditions or/and managerial abilities are favourable, he can decide to make the firm grow to reach the optimal size (Jovanovic, 1982). An ex nihilo creation is on average smaller than an existing firm. Consequently, when the agent does not know perfectly his managerial abilities, he can prefer penetrating the market with an ex nihilo creation rather than with a takeover. The discussion here suggests the following hypothesis. H2: Entrepreneurs with higher managerial skills are more inclined to buy an existing firm than to start a new one. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 5 This hypothesis is verified with data from Netherlands by Parker and Van Praag (2006). The study of entrepreneurship does not focus only upon the individual. Since the 80s, the importance of social capital to entrepreneurship has been widely recognized (for a review of literature see Cope, Jack, Rose, 2007). Social capital can be defined as the entrepreneurial quality of environment which is based on trust and networks. It involves the building of networks and the norm of behaviour that underpin them (Putnam, 2000) and the goodwill that is linked with social relations (Adler, Know, 2002). Social capital is indeed expected to improve the entrepreneur’s human capital by enhancing the individual’s ability to identify opportunities and to accede to resources (Green, Brown, 1997). Despite the concept of social capital is intuitively very important, it is difficult to measure it empirically. However, concerning the decision to become self-employed, we can notice, for instance, that individuals’ own wealth is less important in becoming self-employed than parents’ wealth and that having a self employed parent produce a substantial positive effect on becoming selfemployed (Dunn and Holtz-Eakin, 2000). Social capital can influence the choice of entry’s mode by an individual too. To succeed in taking over a good firm, an individual need information on opportunities. When he belongs to entrepreneurial networks, his likelihood to access to this information, and consequently to buy a “good” existing firm, is higher. This suggests the following hypothesis. H3: Social capital increases the likelihood that an individual takes over an existing firm rather than create an ex nihilo firm from the scratch.. 2.2. Financial capital Research on the impact of financial capital on new firm formation has generated mixed results. On the one hand, studies stress the role of financial capital in becoming self-employed and keeping it going (Bates, 1987, Evans and Jovanovic, 1989). In support of this view, research has shown that obtaining money from an inheritance, gifts and lottery winning increase the likelihood of self-employment (Holtz-Eakin, Joulfaian, Rosen, 1994 Lindh, Ohlsson, 1996, Blanchflower, Oswald, 1998). On the other hand, some studies disagree with this emphasis on financial resources (for example, Cressy, 1996). Kim, Aldrich and Keister (2003) give two arguments to explain why financial capital should not be the preponderant factors to determine entrepreneurship. First, many new businesses do not require large amounts of financial capital. Second, small businesses can find ways around capital constraints and build solutions to decrease capital needs in the start-up phase (Freear, Sohl, Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 6 Wetzel, 2002). Kim, Aldrich and Keister (2003) give some examples such as relatives working below market salary, borrowing from relatives or other firms, withholding the owner’s salary, and leasing equipment rather than buying it. The role of financial capital in determining entrepreneurship remains controversial. However, some expectations can be stressed concerning the modes of entry. First, takeovers should be less credit rationed, in the sense of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981), than ex nihilo new firms because their informational system is less opaque. Takeovers can exhibit track records that cannot be produced in the cases of start up which begin from nothing. Moreover, takeovers should be less redlined, always in the sense of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981), they are less risky than ex nihilo new firms. In consequence, access to credit should be easier for takeovers than for new firms. If the internal wealth of entrepreneurs is limited, for a fixed level of total finance needed to begin activity, an individual should prefer choosing takeover than ex nihilo new firm to make financial constraints decrease. Second, access to banking loans depend on initial capital entrepreneurs can provide in his venture (Leland, Pyle, 1977). In average, a business takeover is more costly than a start-up as not only physical assets are transferred but also relationships with all stakeholders, firm’s reputation and future cash flows expectations too. If the entrepreneur’s wealth is low, his capacity to access to banking loans should be low too so that the entrepreneur can choose the least costly project which is an ex nihilo creation rather than a buyout. Consequently, the discussion here suggests the following hypothesis. H4: Constraints on the credit market make the likelihood of buyout increase and banking loans are more often associated with buyouts than with ex nihilo new firms at a given level of capital needed to begin activity. 2.3. Market-specific factors Entrepreneurial decisions, and in particular the choice of entry’s mode, is not only made at the individual micro level. These decisions depend also from factors at the meso level that influence both the supply and the demand of entrepreneurships: “The supply and demand side create conditions for the entrepreneurial decision made at the individual level. The demand side creates entrepreneurial opportunities though the market demand for goods and services, whereas the supply side provides potential entrepreneurs that can act upon the opportunities.” (Verheul, Audrestch, Thurik, et alii, 2001, p. 19). Business environment drives the creation of Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 7 new firms. In this article, we distinguish the effect of four factors: economic development, characteristics of demand, characteristics of sector, and innovation by firms. At the most aggregated level, economic development influences entrepreneurship but the nature of this impact is ambiguous. On the one hand, economic development is accompanied by a decrease in the rate of unemployment that may lower the supply of new entrepreneurs but also favours new opportunities. On the other hand, a lower level of prosperity makes the rate of unemployment increase. In this situation, the opportunity costs of entrepreneurship decreases and the supply of new entrepreneurs tends to increase. However, there are less new opportunities on demand side. Economic development can influence the entrepreneur’s mode of entry. We can expect that in periods of high economic growth, new opportunities of entry arise for firms and individuals and the rates of entrepreneurs’ and firms’ exits decrease. Finally, in this environment, “bad” entrepreneurs to remain active and the supply of takeovers can be supposed to be rather rare whereas ex nihilo new firms are favoured. In periods of low economic growth, “bad” firms should exit and “good” firms managed by “bad” entrepreneurs too. In this situation, the supply of takeovers should increase. This discussion suggests the following hypothesis. H5: Prosperity favors rather ex nihilo creations whereas low growth rates favor takeovers. The characteristics of demand influence entrepreneurship too. In particular, since the seventies, the demand of customers for proximity and more flexible productions allows smaller firms to survive and can explain the structural increase in the rate of self-employment (Piore, Sabel, 1984). This need of proximity, linked with some activities, can influence the mode of entry chosen by entrepreneurs. When a business focuses on proximity, reputation, clientele and localisation are strategic assets. These specific assets are difficult to build from nothing. When an agent acquires an existing firm, he acquires them, or at least a part of them, immediately. This suggests the following hypothesis: H6: Local activity focussed upon proximity increases the probability of business takeover. The impact of sector on entrepreneurship is widely recognized. Manufacturing oriented economies are accompanied with high scale production and weak self-employment rates whereas services oriented economies are characterized by smaller firms, creating more Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 8 opportunities for self-employment. The sector specialization can influence the mode of entry too. The first argument is the entry barriers which imply a strong constraint on the choice of entry’s mode and lead more probably to business takeovers. In sectors with rather high MES (Minimum Efficiency Scale), it is more difficult to create an independent ex nihilo new firm than in sectors with low MES and we can expect a higher rate of takeovers. On the opposite side, in sectors where MES are low, for example services, the likelihoods of an individual to create ex nihilo new firms and to succeed in this venture can be expected to be higher. The industrial structure should certainly impact the entrepreneur’s mode of entry. However, the limitations of the database we use do not permit to study this hypothesis. Innovation is a determinant factor in explaining firms’ size. New flexible technologies can indeed justify the decreasing minimum efficiency scale in many sectors (Carlsson, 1989) and can justify the increase of self-employment in many countries. Since Williamson (1985) and the development of the transactions cost approach, we know innovation needs flexibility i.e. firms’ ability to change. By definition, an existing firm is less flexible than a new one. If the entrepreneur wants to innovate, in particular in a new technological process, adjustment costs should be very heavy to adapt in an existing firm, in particular in industrial sectors. As a consequence, in order to innovate, an entrepreneur can prefer create a new firm than to take over an old one. Furthermore, for innovative projects, the specificity of assets and uncertainty are strong so that entrepreneurs can be incited to entry with a small size. This situation is easier to reach when entrepreneurs create new firms than when they buy existing ones. For these two reasons, we expect to verify the following hypothesis. H7: Entrepreneurs with innovative projects are more inclined to start a new firm than to buy an existing firm and the effect is stronger in industrial sector. 3. Methodology In this section, we describe data, variables and methods we use. 3.1. Data In this article, we use the SINE database produced by the French National Institute of Statistical and Economic Studies (INSEE) in the framework of the New firms Information System1 (SINE). In this survey, new firms are identified on the basis of their registration in the “Système d'Informations et de Répertoire des Entreprises et des Etablissements" 1 For a complete presentation of the database, see Charpin (2004). Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 9 (SIRENE). SIRENE gives information on their identity, localisation, economic activity and size. The SINE database completes this information on the population of new firms. Data are generated by surveys which have been driven on a representative population of new firms every five years since 1994. These data give us qualitative information2 on the entrepreneur’s profile, the project he develops, the conditions of their setting up, in particular the characteristics of goods and services, the market and the financing, and the difficulties he must cope with at the beginning of the venture. Firms in each cohort are followed during five years. During this period, two surveys are carried out: the first three years after setting up and the second five years after. In this article, we study the cohort of firms which set up in 1998 and which had survived at least for one month. This compulsory survey is carried out among the population of 52 000 new firms. The sample is representative of the total population of new firms which concern 2 666 447 firms. A weight variable is used for the sample to fit the entire population. Firms belong to 9 sectors of activity; financial and agricultural activities and units established abroad are not taken into account in this database. In this study, we focus upon pure creations which correspond to new means of production and takeovers when a firm purchase the whole or part of another firm's activity and means of production. Consequently, the sample only focuses on pure creation and excludes creation of new establishments or takeovers by existing firms (subsidiaries). Transfers concerning the internal market of buyout are excluded too. We do not indeed take into account firms taken over by their own employees, in particular managers, by family members of firm’s owners (legacy or sales). All these situations do not really result from a choice between ex nihilo new creation and takeover. Finally, our sample is composed from 20 344 units which represent 62 176 enterprises set up or taken over in 1998. These individual data are completed with data at the sector level published by the INSEE in the collection “Images Economiques des Entreprises”. More precisely, we introduce data on the sector growth between 1996 and 1997 which can influence the entrepreneur’s decision. 2 Entrepreneurs must answer yes or no to some questions or choose one or more options in a given list of possible answers. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 10 3.2. Variables3 To test hypotheses, we have created a dummy variable called “CREATION”. This binary variable is equal to 1 when the new firm has been set up from nothing and 0 when the firm is a takeover. In our sample, creation represents 87.7 % of the population. Explanatory variables are created to study the effect of human capital, social capital, financial capital and market-specific factors. To study the effects of human capital on the choice of entry's mode, we use several dummy variables. We can class them in two groups: entrepreneur's private characteristics and entrepreneur’s managerial skills. Entrepreneur's characteristics are represented by six dummy variables. The variable “ALCREATED” is equal to one when entrepreneurs declare that they already set up a firm and 0 otherwise. According to us, an experience in setting up a firm makes the human capital of the creator grow. However we must be careful in interpreting the results we can obtain with this variable as some individual can be “serial” creators who prefer creating ex nihilo new firms to taking other existing ones. In this specific case, entrepreneurs do not really make a choice between ex nihilo new firms and takeovers; there is a kind of physiological bias toward ex nihilo creation. In the sample, we can observe this bias. People that have already set up a firm represent a higher proportion in the sub-sample of ex nihilo creations (about 23%) than in the sub-sample of takeovers (19,25 %). The variable “EXPERIENCE” is equal to one when individuals declare that they have experience in the same sector and 0 otherwise. Ceteris paribus, such an experience makes individuals’ human capital increase. In our sample, 76.4 % of ex nihilo creators declare that they have experience in the same sector. This experience is only mentioned by 66.7% of individuals who choose takeovers as mode of entry. We introduce three different variables to take into account diploma owned by entrepreneurs. Each variable is equal to 1 when the entrepreneur has a degree and 0 otherwise. These variables are called “CAPBEP”, “BAC” and “BACDEUXETPLUS”4 which correspond respectively to technical undergraduate degrees, the baccalaureate and postgraduate diplomas. In our sample, 18.01 % of creators have not got any qualifications (19.47 % of individuals who choose takeovers) whereas 30.48 % of them have a postgraduate degree (and only 19.76 % of individuals who choose takeovers). 3 4 Description of variable are given in appendix 1. For these three variables, the reference is when entrepreneur has no degree. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 11 Managerial skills are an important part of human capital. In the survey, entrepreneurs are questioned about their acquisition of managerial skills during their career. The variable “MANAGERIAL” is equal to 1 when individuals answer that they acquired managerial skills in their past activity and 0 otherwise. In our sample, proportion of individuals with managerial skills is not very different between creators and individuals who decide to take over an existing firm (respectively 21.96% and 22.75 %). Managerial skills can also depend on diploma. The likelihood to experience in the past managerial activities is certainly higher for post graduated individuals than for the others. For example, in our sample, post graduated individuals (“BACDEUXETPLUS”) represent 29.16 % of the global population but 36.33 % of entrepreneurs that declared to have acquired managerial skills during their past experience. Social capital is measured by two dummy variables, “NETWORK” and “RELATION”. The variable “NETWORK” is equal to 1 when the entrepreneur belongs to an entrepreneurial network and to 0 otherwise. Individuals inscribed in such a network can access more easily to information and so be aware of good opportunities of new ventures. In our sample, 70% of creators feel to belong to an entrepreneurial network (64.25 % of the takeover subsample). The variable “RELATION” is equal to 1 when starting the business is favoured by relationships with customers or suppliers. In this case, social capital is generated by relationships inside professional networks. This variable can also illustrate the favourable effect of a stable environment on ex nihilo creation. Strong relationships with commercial partners are mentioned by 47.11 % of ex nihilo creation against 28.25% of individuals who choose takeovers. To analyse the impact of financial capital on the choice of entry’s mode, we introduce two variables. First, we take into account the access of new firms to baking loans for a given level of financial needs. Seven dummy variables called “LOANSi with i=1,...,7” are created. These variables are equal to 1 when entrepreneurs receive a banking loan and when their financial needs belongs to one of seven bracket (the first is less than 1 500 euros and the last is more than 76 000 euros) and 0 otherwise. We cross these two variables because what we want to take into account banking constraint at the start up of the firm. Firms that need a high level of financial resources and that are not financed by banks are probably more constrained than firms with low financial needs that are financed by banks. Second, we introduce the variable “PB_TRES” to take into account financial difficulties the entrepreneurs expect to suffer from at the beginning of the venture. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 12 Market-specific factors correspond to the growth of the sector, the innovation of the firm and its localisation. The growth rate of each sector’s turnover between 1996 and 1997 is reckoned. We use a subdivision of the economy in about 700 sectors. We only retain the period 1996-1997 because of the lack of available data. The variable is called “GROWTH”. To take into account innovation, we introduce the variable INNOVATION that is equal to 1 when the entrepreneur declares that he sells a new product or he uses a new production process and 0 otherwise. It is an imperfect proxy because of the subjectivity of the answer given by entrepreneurs. We catch only the perception of innovation by individuals. In our sample, 16.6 % of entrepreneurs who choose ex nihilo new firms creators and 6.29 % of individuals who choose to take over declare to be innovative. To take into account the characteristics of firm's market, we introduce two variables. The variable “LOCALE” is equal to 1 when customers are geographically close to new firms (not regional neither national nor international). The variable “SUBCONTRACTING” is equal to 1 when the enterprise has declared that subcontracting is a significant part of its turnover. To finish, variables of control are introduced. They reflect some entrepreneur's and market’s characteristics. First, the nationality of entrepreneurs is taken into account because it can contribute to create a network or because some nationalities are more frequent in some sectors where ex nihilo creations or takeovers are more frequent. We so create the variable “FRENCH” which is equal to 1 when the entrepreneur is French and 0 otherwise. Second, we take into account the entrepreneur’s gender because men or women can be more present in some sectors. The variable “MALE” is equal to 1 when the entrepreneur is a man and 0 otherwise. We introduce dummy variables that take the value 1 according to the activity sector of the firm. We expect indeed that sector's structure can favour a specific kind of entry (set up or take over). For example, in some sectors, the large number of small firms facilitates the takeovers of existing enterprises. Some sectors are also more innovative sectors than others and set up are used to be more frequent in these sectors. This variable doesn't affect directly the choice between set up or take over. It influences the probability to create or take over in particular according to the occupational qualification of the entrepreneur which can be sectors-dependent. These sector variables are “AGRIBUSINESS”, “INDUSTRY”, “BUILDING”, “TRANSPORTATION”, “ESTATE” (real estate), “PRIVATE” (private persons services), “ENTERPRISES” (enterprises services) and “EDUCATION” (the reference variable is called “TRADE” and corresponds to trade sector). Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 13 3.3 Methods Given the nature of dependent variable, logit and probit models are used to test hypotheses. In order to control the influence of sectors on interest variables, we conduct estimation for each of them. When the predictors have not the same significant effect (sign) in each sector, we introduce interactions variables (sector*interest dummy variables) in the global regression. The comparisons of the estimates yielded by logit and probit models show that the signs of coefficients are the same across models and that the same variables are statically significant. Consequently, we only present the logit model results of the likelihood of choosing an ex nihilo creation (Appendix 2). 4. Empirical results The appendix 2 presents our results and allows us to test directly hypotheses on successively human and social capital, financial capital, and market-specific factors. To finish, we comment results on control variables. 4.1. Human and social capital Human capital appears to influence the mode of entry. However results appear to be sector-dependent for variables which represent formal education (“BAC”, “BACDEUXET PLUS” and “CAP/BEP”), prior experiences in the activity or a close activity (“EXPERIENCE”) and business ownership experience (“ALCREATED”). In the base sector (the trade sector), high formal education and experience increase the probability to create a new firm5. This result is consistent with the first assumption. Nevertheless, if the interaction variables are taken into account, the impact of “EXPERIENCE” on the probability of an ex nihilo creation is reduced in agribusiness, real-estate, private persons and enterprises services, and education and health sectors (the base category is the trade sector). It is reinforced in the other sectors. The consideration of the simultaneous presence of prior business ownership experience (“ALCREATED”) and sector attenuates, for all sectors, the individual effect of prior ownership comparatively to the base category (trade sector). The effect of education is different across sectors. The probability of ex nihilo creation for postgraduates tends to be higher than for the base category with no diploma6 in trade sector. In this sector, there is no difference between technical diploma and no diploma. As specialized degrees are compulsory The coefficient of “ALCREATED”, “EXPERIENCE”, “BAC and BACDEUXETPLUS” are positives and statically significant. 6 The coefficient of “BAC and BACDEUXETPLUS” are positives and statically significant. 5 Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 14 or at least advisable necessary, for many occupations, the impact of education is not the same across sectors. For example, in comparison with base category (no diploma), technical diplomas have a positive and significant impact in agribusiness, industry and transportation. This impact is positive in private person services and trade sector and no significant otherwise. Finally, the impact of prior experience in business or close activity and formal education is different according to the sectors. As a consequence, a high level of human capital (education and general full-time work experience) does not increase the probability to start a new firm. The hypothesis 1 is not confirmed. Contrary to other human capital variables, the influence of managerial skills appears identical for all activity sectors. Managerial skills make the probability to create a new firm from nothing decrease. The hypothesis 2 is confirmed. The result is either the same or no significant among sectors. The effect of managerial skills on mode of entry is unambiguously what is consistent with Parker and Van Praag (2006). Social capital appears to affect the mode of entry. The two considered variables, “NETWORK” and “RELATION” have significant positive effect on the likelihood of ex nihilo creation. An entrepreneur with family business has a greater probability to create a new firm than the others. Strong relationships with customers and/or suppliers have the same effect. This result is stable according to the sector except for the variable RELATION which has a significant negative sign in the sector of services for enterprise. Social capital does not increase the probability to buy an existing firm. These results are inconsistent with hypothesis 3. Two kinds of reasons can justify this result: the limits of data to measure the social capital and a “false” hypothesis. First, the difficulties to define social capital (Anderson and Miller, 2002), to measure it and the lack of available data lead to use bad proxies. The social network is deeper than family network and strong relationship with customers and suppliers. Second, social capital improves the search of information. Entrepreneurs with a high social capital have a better knowledge on the market of business transfers (argument for hypothesis 3), but perhaps a better knowledge on opportunities to start an ex nihilo new firms too. Ucbasaram, Westehead and Wright (2007) introduce this last effect but their empirical study does not confirm it. These two effects, better knowledge on business transfers and better identification of new opportunities, have an opposed impact on the probability to create an ex nihilo new firms. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 15 4.2. Financial capital Banking loans appear to affect negatively the probability of entrepreneurs to create new firms from nothing whatever may be both the level of initial capital and the sector. Banking loans are indeed more often associated with buyouts than ex nihilo creation. The hypothesis 4 is confirmed. This result can be justified by at least two different explanations. First, the lack of initial wealth leads the entrepreneur to gather external capital such as, in particular, banking loans. Because, business takeovers, ceteris paribus, are less risky and opaque than ex nihilo creations, business takeovers are less credit constrained than ex nihilo new firms. Second, the entrepreneur must finance his venture with personal equity for a significant part. In this case, banking loans signal an initial personal wealth and business takeovers are less financial constrained than ex nihilo creator. This second explanation is confirmed by the estimation. The ex nihilo creators anticipate more often financial problems (we consider that this anticipation is a proxy of a lack of initial wealth). 4.3. Market-specific factors The probability of ex nihilo creation increases with the average growth rate of turnover of the sector between 1996 and 1997. This result is consistent with hypothesis 5 which declares that good economic environment favors ex nihilo creation. Nevertheless, this indicator is not very reliable variable because first, the nomenclature used (NAF 700) is not sufficiently detailed and second, pertinent growth rate must take into account the regional place of the creation. In fact, the family situation and other factors make the creator not perfectly mobile. The proximity activity is favorable to business takeover for all sectors. This result can be explained by an important reputation effect in this type of activity which is beneficial to new entrepreneur (at least at beginning of activity) in the case of takeovers. Local activity affects positively the probability of business takeover. Consequently, hypothesis 6 is confirmed. The innovation of product and process increases in all sectors the probability of ex nihilo creation. This result is consistent with hypothesis 7. We can notice the particular case of real estate sector. In this sector, innovations (39 observations upon 773) predict perfectly the ex nihilo creation. We are careful of the link between formal capital and innovation. In a Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 16 first approach we have realized estimation for each level of diploma. The sign of innovations’ impact and his significance are the same for all diplomas7. Finally, all sectors appear to affect significantly the mode of entry comparatively to the base sector. However this result is difficult to be interpreted at his level of details. 4.4. Control variables We find also interesting effects for some variables of control. First, the subcontracting activity is positively linked with ex nihilo creation. This results can be explained by some strategies of spin-off or/an externalization some existing firms can drive. In these cases, ex nihilo new firms are created by an employee of the existing firm and new firms benefits form preferential relationships with the existing firms. Second, the entrepreneur that creates alone choices more probably than others ex nihilo creation. Perhaps, single creators are less risk averse than married ones and we know that ex nihilo creations have a greater probability to fail. Two alternative reasons can justify this result. On the one hand, each member of couples can be committed in other activities so that the risk of the couple is diversified. On the other hand, when the creator is single, his family expenses are lower. This primitive interpretation requires more empirical support. Third, the entrepreneur’s nationality influences his mode of entry. The French nationality increases the probability to create a new firm. An explanation can be the higher propensity of French to discover new business opportunities. We can indeed assume that French natives have a better knowledge on French markets than foreigners. 5- Conclusion In this paper, we focus on the determinants of entry’s mode. We consider two categories of determinants: individuals characteristic and market specific factors. Our estimates of entry’s mode appear to be broadly consistent with our hypothesis concerning managerial skills, financial capital and market specific factors. According to Parker and Van Praag (2006), the managerial skills appear to improve the probability to takeover a firm. On the contrary, innovation increases the likelihood of an ex nihilo creation. In other words, the best managers and the less innovative ones take over existing firms. This result is consistent to Holmes and Schmitz (1990). The skills necessary to manage efficiently a firm are not identical to those necessary to identify new opportunities. Another interesting result is that 7 We drive a bivariate probit model on innovation too where the independent variables are the level of education and the sectors. The results for mode of entry are qualitatively the same than for the univariate model. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 17 takeovers have always a greater probability to be financed by banking loans than ex nihilo creators whatever may be the level of required capital to start the business. The model developed by Parker and Van Praag (2006) predicts than more educated people are more likelihood to start a new firm than others. Their empirical results provide a support for this proposition. Nevertheless, in our empirical framework, the effects of education are not obvious. It depends on sectors. Globally, the characteristics of market (rate of growth, characteristics on demand) affect the mode of entry. According to Parker and Van Praag (2006), the studies upon entrepreneurship should take into account the mode of entry. An individual doesn’t choice only to become self employed but also the entry’s mode. This last choice depends on different personal and environmental characteristics. In this situation, the conflation of the two modes can lead to overvalue or undervalue the impact of human capital or others variables. The differentiation of entry’s modes can prevail against this misinterpretation and can improve the efficiency of public program. Finally, future research should analyze the pure impact of entry’s mode on survival and performance. An important question is to understand why business takeovers survive longer than ex nihilo creations. This fact can be explained by a lower level of risk and a lower degree of uncertainty for takeovers rather than for ex nihilo creations. Other explanations can be advanced too. In particular, we can expect that the best managers more probably choose business transfers. 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Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 21 Appendix 1: description of variables Size of population: 62 176 new firms (20 344 without any weighting) and among them 54 519 ex nihilo new firms (17 103 without weighting) Variable Créations Reprises Ensemble ALCREATED 22,99 19,25 22,53 EXPERIENCE 76,4 66,72 75,21 NODIPLOMA 18,01 19,47 18,19 CAPBEP 33,53 41,99 34,57 BAC 17,98 18,78 18,08 BAC_DEUXETPLUS 30,48 19,76 29,16 MANAGERIAL 21,96 22,75 22,06 CIRCLE 70,00 64,25 66,29 RELATION 47,11 28,25 44,79 LOANS1 0,80 2,52 1,01 LOANS2 1,75 5,34 2,19 LOANS3 2,62 5,67 2,99 LOANS4 6,25 11,69 6,92 LOANS5 5,63 14,39 6,71 LOANS6 2,76 11,24 3,80 LOANS7 2,63 15,46 4,21 INNOVATION 16,6 6,29 15,33 GROWTH (mean) 0,0216 0,0067 0,0184 FRENCH 89,44 91,25 89,66 AGE (mean) 36,88 37,26 36,92 MALE 72,99 61,8 71,61 CASH 15,4 11,06 14,87 CUSTOMER 36,85 6,27 33,08 LOCALE 46,65 78,8 50,61 SUBCONTRACTING 32,44 9,14 29,57 ALONE 70,29 60,98 69,14 AGRIBUSINESS 1,10 7,00 1,82 INDUSTRY 7,54 2,93 6,97 BUILDING 17,36 2,32 15,51 TRADE 30,05 32,4 30,34 TRANSPORTATION 4,15 4,00 4,14 ESTATE 3,35 0,73 3,03 PRIVATE PERSON SERVICES 11,13 40,28 14,72 ENTERPRISES SERVICES 20,91 3,46 18,76 EDUCATION 4,41 6,88 Unless otherwise specified, perrcentage of population for which variable is equal to 1. Bastié/Cieply/Cussy 4,72 Page 22 Appendix 2: logit model results Table 2.1: Explanatory variables ALCREATED 0.3770729*** LOANS3 -1.451408*** EXPERIENCE 0.2828798*** LOANS4 -1.23532*** CAPBEP -0.045873 LOANS5 -1.506529*** BAC 0.2938081*** LOANS6 -1.796834*** BAC_DEUXETPLUS 0.2871977*** LOANS7 -2.097057*** MANAGERIAL -0.287367*** PB_TRES 0.4775113*** CIRCLE 0.2391295*** INNOVATION 1.060725*** LOCALE -0.8132939*** GROWTH 0.188679*** RELATION 0.4166225*** SUBCONTRACTING 0.4356146*** LOANS1 -1.582178*** ALONE 0.4445279*** LOANS2 -1.578085*** Table 2.2: Control variables FRENCH 0.0779664 TRANSPORTATION 0.8031539*** MALE 0.0871771*** ESTATE 4.176163*** AGRIBUSINESS -0.215925 ENTERPRISES 1.969702*** INDUSTRY 1.732214*** PRIVATE -0.8915931*** BUILDING 2.65184*** EDUCATION 0.5685019 Table 2.3: Cross variables ALREADY*sector CAPBEP*sector AGRIBUSINESS -0.1150729 AGRIBUSINESS -0.6439507*** INDUSTRY -1.297854*** INDUSTRY -0.7871254*** BUILDING -1.546099*** BUILDING -0.1011799 TRANSPORTATION -0.5914743*** TRANSPORTATION -0.7746025*** ESTATE -0.4784773 ESTATE -0.9530055 ENTERPRISES 1.152951*** ** ENTERPRISES -0.3801185 PRIVATE -0.4137093*** PRIVATE 0.2936796*** EDUCATION -0.1827055 EDUCATION -.6855045* BAC*sector BACDEUXETPLUS*sector -0.742403 *** AGRIBUSINESS -0.4278265 INDUSTRY -1.172425 *** INDUSTRY -0.791302** BUILDING -.8057382*** BUILDING -2.077031*** TRANSPORTATION -1.761666*** TRANPORTATION -1.809796*** ESTATE -2.000488* ESTATE -2.021203*** ENTERPRISES -0.2599051 ENTERPRISES .0624883 PRIVATE 0.1950619* PRIVATE 0.6476399*** AGRIBUSINESS Bastié/Cieply/Cussy Page 23 EDUCATION -0.4241082 EDUCATION EXPERIENCE*sector -0.2863553 NETWORK*sector AGRIBUSINESS -0.7877077*** AGRIBUSINESS .2132434 INDUSTRY 0.071993 INDUSTRY -0.1466436 BUILDING 0.0538494 BUILDING -.0968801 TRANSPORTATION 0.3028057** *** TRANSPORTATION 0.4953058 ESTATE -1.058038*** ESTATE 0.1126519 ENTERPRISES -0.626828*** ENTERPRISES -0.6354715*** PRIVATE -0.2408641*** PRIVATE -0.0813618 EDUCATION 0.3631236 EDUCATION ALREADY*EXPERIENCE -0.7403914 *** 0.2710685 *** significant at 1 %, ** significant at 5 %, * significant at 1 % elsewhere not significatively different from zero Quality of regression Pseudo R2 : 0.3080 LR chi2(80) = 14291.83 (Prob > chi2 = 0.0000) Classification table Classified + if predicted Pr(C) >= .5 True C defined as CREATION != 0 (NC elsewhere) Sensitivity Pr( + | C ) 97.32% Specificity Pr( - | NC ) 32.69% Positive predictive value Pr( C | + ) 91.15% Negative predictive value Pr(NC | - ) 63.16% False + rate for true NC Pr( + | NC ) 67.31% False - rate for true C Pr( - | C ) 2.68% False + rate for classified + Pr( NC | + ) 8.85% False - rate for classified - Pr( C | - ) Correctly classified Bastié/Cieply/Cussy 36.84% 89.36% Page 24