What’s with Oil?
The Probable Status of the Resource
Uses of Petroleum
Figure 2 - 2004
Figure 1 - 1973
Figure 3 - Texas oil production, 1935 to 2005
Source: Railroad Commission of Texas
Figure 4 - Mathematical relations involved in the complete cycle of
production of any exhaustible resource
from Hubbert, M. King (1956), Pub. No. 95,
Shell Development Co. Exploration and Production Research Division
Figure 5 - Hypothetical production from 8 wells shown individually and cumulatively
(“Hubbert Curve”) as a function of time.
Source: http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/hubbert.html
Figure 6 - Hubbert linearization of Texas petroleum production showing
percent of Q at peak production.
From Brown, Jeffrey J., (2006). Texas and US Lower 48 Oil Production as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World
Figure 7 - Historical oil and condensate production in Oklahoma
Source: Claxton (2001), Oil and Gas Information, Oklahoma Corporation
Commission. http://www.occ.state.ok.us/text_files/o&gfiles.htm
Figure 8 - California oil production showing cumulative production to 1998
and a Hubbert distribution ultimate recoverable production of 36 billion
barrels
Source: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/us/ca from USEIA data?
Figure 9 Hubbert linearization of US lower 48 production
From Brown, Jeffrey J., (2006). Texas and US Lower 48 Oil Production
as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World
Figure 10 - Historic and forecast Alaska North Slope Production
Source: US National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2005
Figure 11 - Upstream production costs per barrel of oil equivalent
Figure 12 - US Petroleum Production 1954 to 2006
Source: US Energy Information Administration (2006 )
Figure 13 - US Crude oil production vs drilling activity
Source: New York Times (2007) from US Energy Administration Data
Figure 14 - Hubbert linearization of Saudi Arabian production including but
not limited to Ghawar
From Brown, Jeffrey J., (2006). Texas and US Lower 48 Oil Production
as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World
Figure 15 - Linearization of Kuwaiti Oil Production
Data from American Petroleum Institute (via Jean Laherrere), 2005(?) and BP
Statistical Review of World Energy
Figure 16 - Hubbert linearization, Cantarell, Mexico
The Oil Drum, 2006, Discussions About Energy and Our Future at http://www.theoildrum.com/
story/2006/1/20/193723/259
Figure 17 Hubbert linearization of total Mexican production
The Oil Drum, Discussions About Energy and Our Future at http://www.theoildrum.com/
story/2006/1/20/193723/259
Figure 18 - Oil producing countries past peak production, 2007
Figure 19 - Oil production from the Majors, 1997 to 2007
Compilation by Energy Watch Group 2007
Figure 20 History of petroleum discoveries (proven + probable)
versus production
IHS Energy, 2005
Figure 21 Chevron advertisement, circa 2006
Figure 22 - Typical production pattern for an oil region
Source: IHS Energy, 2005
Figure 23 - Shell oil shale extraction technology
Source: http://www.shell.com/static/usen/downloads/shell_for_businesses/exploration_production/icp_fact_sheet_final.pdf
Table 1 - US Government ultimate recovery estimates
Source: US Energy Information Administration (2005) from
US Geological Survey Analysis (2000)
Figure 24 - Hubbert linearization of world production
Source: The Oil Drum, Discussions About Energy and Our Future at
http://www.theoildrum.com/ story/2006/1/20/193723/259
Figure 25 - Advertisement by Chevron, circa 2005.
Figure 26 - Figure from US Geological Survey Open File Report
00-320 (2000)
US Geological Survey Open File Report 00-320 (Magoon, 2000, modified from Campbell and Laherrere 1998)
Figure 27 - Oil + natural gas production profiles based on data
through 2006
Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, most recently reproduced in
Newsletter No. 85, January 2008
Figure 28 - US Energy Information Administration petroleum production
scenarios (2004) based on 2000 USGS estimates
Sources as shown
Figure 29 - World Petroleum Production 1/2001 – 11/2007
Compiled by author from US Energy Information Administration data published
January 2008, includes natural gas liquids
Figure 30 - World petroleum production (left scale) and price in
$2006 (right scale)
Source: The author from US Energy Information Administration data, 2006 and 2007
Thank you!