Review … and the hits just keep on coming Consumer and Producer Surplus in the Market Equilibrium Price A D Supply Consumer surplus Equilibrium price E Producer surplus B Demand C 0 Equilibrium quantity Quantity Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Public Goods • Most important factor is that everyone gets the same amount. • We have to get some agreement as to how much we’ll want (we’ll discuss that a lot). • We’ll have to get some agreement as to how to pay for it (we’ll discuss that a lot, also). Sum of Marginal Benefits = Marginal Cost If you don’t believe me ... 1 2 3 4 Schools • Suppose another politician promises s2. Person 3 won’t be happy 60 anymore because you’re s1 providing MORE school s2 resources than he wants … so he’ll vote against it. s3 • KEY POINT !!! The s4 median voter is decisive. Eq’m school will be at s3. s5 Each voter will pay 60 b3 in taxes and get s3. 5 b3 Bread 60 How Responsive are LPGs? • What are the usual suspects? • We get pretty interested in both price and income elasticities. • Presumably, as Income , Q . • Presumably, as Price , Q . • How much is it? – A little? – A lot? EY = % Q / % Y. EP = % Q / % P. occurs when people stop moving! Tiebout Eq’m Model • Assumptions – Jurisdictional Choice -Households shop for what local governments provide. – Information and Mobility -Households have perfect information, and are perfectly mobile. – No Jurisdictional Spillovers -What is produced in Southfield doesn’t affect people in Oak Park. – Community size – City manager seeks to reach average minimum cost of producing goods. – Head Taxes -- Pay for things withWhat happens if people keep moving a tax per person. From Community 1 to Community 2? • We get an equilibrium. People’s preferences are satisfied. Plethora of Studies • If you do a citation search, you will find that this article was like Helen of Troy, the face that launched 1000 ships. • All kinds of follow-ups. – Was this really what Tiebout meant? – Was the econometrics right? – Did this work at the individual house level, as opposed to the community level? Instability • Tax financing generates inherent instability. • Need not be solely property tax. Happens with any tax other than a pure benefit tax or a head (per/person) tax. • Incentive for one family to move to take advantage of fiscal surplus will lead other (or all) families to move. Baumol’s Cost Hypothesis • Consider two sectors. He calls them – Progressive – subject to productivity improvements. – Traditional – Generally more labor intensive and not subject to productivity improvements. • What happens? Privatization Think of some of your own examples! • Definition: Transfer production of government services to private firms. Degrees of Public and Private Involvement Case Choice Financing Production 1 2 3 4 Public Public Public Private Public Public Private Private Public Private Private Private Example Police Trash Sidewalks Private Goods 10 Impacts of Grants – General v. Matching All Other • Suppose, instead, you were given a matching grant, where every $ you raised would be matched with a $ from the government. • Slope is now -0.5. Why? Slope = -0.5, why? A2 A1 • Leads to much more E and relatively less A. E1 E2 E3 Education Fungibility • You have a budget of $60 per week for entertainment. You spend: – $20 on Pizza – $20 on Movies – $20 on Pepsi • Your parents come to visit and give you a $30 gift certificate to Pizza Hut. Taxes and Efficiency • Excise Tax – Tax on a particular good. – Look at a unit (as oppose to percentage) tax. D S $ P1 Con. P0 3.0 DW Prod. $1 • $1 Tax Collected on DEMANDERS What’s DW$ Q1 Q0 Q Ad valorem tax on supply • Tax parameter is , so if there is a 10% tax, = (1+tax) = (1+0.10) = 1.1 • Impose on Supplier • Supply – Why? Price Supply c Ps´= a + b Qs Demand TAX • Demand DW Pd = c + d Qd If we set Ps´ = Pd, then c a Q ** b d aα a Q** Q* Quantity Ad valorem tax on demand • Tax is , so if there is a 10% tax, = 1.1 • Impose on Demander • Supply Price Supply c Demand c/α Ps = a + b Qs TAX • Demand DW Pd´ = (c/ ) + (d / ) Qd If we set Ps = Pd´, then (c / ) a Q *** [b (d / )] a Q*** Q* Quantity Proposal A in Michigan Proposal A Spreadsheet Tax Rate Rate Year Value 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200,000 220,000 240,000 255,000 265,000 275,000 290,000 300,000 320,000 360,000 400,000 420,000 420,000 400,000 375,000 1.5% Value % CPI Taxable Effective Taxes on Increase Inflation Value Taxes Rate Value 10.0% 9.1% 6.3% 3.9% 3.8% 5.5% 3.4% 6.7% 12.5% 11.1% 5.0% 0.0% -4.8% -6.3% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.2% 1.3% 2.2% 3.5% 2.7% 1.4% 2.2% 2.6% 3.5% 3.2% 2.9% 200,000 205,017 210,808 216,992 221,766 224,704 229,723 237,686 244,183 247,581 253,131 259,713 268,868 277,516 285,472 3,000 3,075 3,162 3,255 3,326 3,371 3,446 3,565 3,663 3,714 3,797 3,896 4,033 4,163 4,282 1.50% 1.40% 1.32% 1.28% 1.26% 1.23% 1.19% 1.19% 1.14% 1.03% 0.95% 0.93% 0.96% 1.04% 1.14% 3,000 3,300 3,600 3,825 3,975 4,125 4,350 4,500 4,800 5,400 6,000 6,300 6,300 6,000 5,625 Mobility Tax 0 225 438 570 649 754 904 935 1,137 1,686 2,203 2,404 2,267 1,837 1,343 Property tax … what do we have? • The tax differentials between jurisdictions function as excise taxes (if there is a “national” property tax of 2%, then a jurisdiction w/ taxes of 3% will incur excise tax effects). • The overall weighted property tax functions as a national tax on capital and land. 17 Is Property Tax Progressive, Regressive? • This has long been debated. • The “traditional” view was the property tax as an excise tax. • If so, it is passed forward to the purchasers of the goods that are produced. • If this is the case, it might be thought to be regressive. Why? Optimal Sales Tax Analysis • We could be more efficient if we could raise same revenue with less DW loss. • How can we do that? • Raise tax on A so price ↑ by 1%. This leads revenue to ↑ by a lot, and quantity to decrease by a little so DW ↑ by a little. • Reduce tax on B to make revenue constant and it decreases DWB by more than DWA increased. DA $ Price B CS loss ↑ DB 1+t + tA RA 1 1+t - tB 1 Good A RB CS loss ↓ Rb’ DWB Good B Is it a prisoner’s dilemma Southfield • Do we give 50% tax abatement? • In boxes we have total expected tax receipts for the municipalities. No Yes No TS = 2M TW = 2M TS = 2.5M TW = 0.5M Yes TS = 0.5M TW = 2.5M Warren TS = 1M TW = 1M 20 Elasticities A Little! • Elasticity of intermetropolitan business activity (A) with respect to local tax [(A/A)/ (t/t)] varies between -0.1, and -0.6. • Elasticity of intrametropolitan business activity with respect to local tax varies between -1.0, and -3.0. • Why are they so different? A Lot!! Compare Education to Health Expenditures as % of GDP 20.0 18.0 Education 16.0 Health Percentage 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 GTB Formula (and worksheet) Consider a formula of the type: Gi = B + (V* - Vi) Ri, where: Gi = 0 + ($200,000 – $50,000) ($40/$1,000), where: Gi = grant B = Basic or Foundation Grant V* = Guaranteed per-pupil tax base Vi = Per pupil tax base in district i. Ri = Tax rate per thousand dollars in district i. Gi = $6000; own effort = $2000 If you raise R by $1 in your district, it is raised by (V* - V)/V times; Here (200 – 50)/50. So a $1 tax gets a $3 match. Implicit tax price = 1/(1+3) or 25%. Let’s look at spreadsheet. What’s the most cost-effective place? Highest mean! 30 Mean = (20+0)/2 = 10 • Thought experiment. Most cost effective place is where we get the highest mean score. Why? • We can draw a line with a slope of –1. This line gives us places with equal totals. Start with S = SE + SH = 10. 45o SE+SH= max Ed SE+SH=20 Mean = (8+8)/2 = 8 SE+SH=10 10 Mean = (0+10)/2 = 5 10 20 Harry Ideas for Study It’s all about quantity. How do we calculate Q*? What happens if we’re not at Q*? Know what an elasticity is. Elasyx = % Δ y / % Δ x. From a regression, y = bx Elasyx = b (mean of x/mean of y) Who pays the tax? Depends on the elasticity. 25 Ideas for Study (2) Know what a regression is! If y = aX + cZ a! what is the impact of a change in X, or a change in Z? c! Current events count! Look at them! 26 Ideas for Study (3) • Capitalization! • If asset rents for $R per year, its value is: – V = DR, where D = 1/r (r = interest rate) • If same asset rents for $R per year, but owner must pay t% tax, – V = DR – tDR – V = DR/(1+Dt) Ideas for Study (4) • Capitalization! • If asset rents for $R per year, its value is: – V = DR, where D = 1/r (r = interest rate) • If property tax t pays for public good X, then: – Vbig = D(Rbig + X)/(1+Dt). Big houses are worth less. – Vsmall = D(Rsmall + X)/(1+Dt). Little houses are worth more. Final Exam • The final exam, as noted in the Winter course schedule will be: – Monday, April 28, 2014 from 10:40 am to 1:10 pm. … and remember Good Luck