Ray Morgan
Director Outreach and Membership
rmorgan@semi.org / 408.943.7043
WHAT WE CAN ACCOMPLISH
TOGETHER
Q1 2012 SEMI Americas – Members Update
A Quarterly Information Webcast to Inform and
Inspire
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks
– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC
– Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends
– Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS
– Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A
– Open to All
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks
– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC
– Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends
– Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS
– Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A
– Open to All
Welcome Remarks
Karen Savala is president of SEMI
Americas, responsible for all regional events,
products, services, and government
relations.
Savala joined SEMI in 1984 and has served
in numerous managerial and executive roles,
including positions in International
Standards, executive programs, publishing,
and membership.
SEMI currently serves members in the global
LED market through trade events, market
data and information programs, public policy
advocacy, EHS programs, and
manufacturing standards development.
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks
– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC
– Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends
– Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS
– Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A
– Open to All
About SEMI
• Global industry association
• Over 1,900 members
• Established in 1970 to serve
the semiconductor supply chain
• Today serves members interests in the
following industries:
– Semiconductor
– Flat Panel Displays (FPD)
– Photovoltaic (PV) / Solar
– Emerging & Adjacent (LED, PE,
MEMS)
Member Services
• Expositions
• Executive Conferences
• Technical Programs
• Industry Standards
• Environment, Health & Safety
• Industry Research &
Statistics
• Customer / Industry Network
• Advocacy
• Special Interest Groups
WWW.SEMI.ORG – Learn More
SEMI – A Few Q4 2011 Highlights
• Trade Agreement with Korea
– eliminates about 99% of tariffs
•
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New Programs & Standards on 450mm Transition
New Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Launched Americas Oregon, Arizona Chapters
Global Events
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SEMICON Europa, Oct
PV Taiwan 2011 – Oct
SOLARCON India 2011 – Nov
International Trade Partners Conference (ITPC) - Nov
Power Electronics - Nov
SEMICON Japan, Dec
PVJapan 2011 - Dec
SEMI – How to Engage.
Get Involved
• Public Policy
• Environmental, Health and Safety Efforts
• Standards Development
• Special Interest Groups
Get Connected (Special Interest Groups)
• Chemical and Gases Manufacturers Group (CGMG)
• Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG)
• Equipment SuppliersGroup(ESG)
• Photovoltaic Manufacturing Group (PV Group)
• North America SEMI Sales and Marketing Council (SSMC)
• EHS / Global Care
•
Statistics
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•
Major Topics
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Over 250 Attendees, 31 speakers, 3 industry panels, extensive networking opportunities
Geo-Economic Trends
Semiconductor Markets
Hot Topics: 450 mm, EUV, 3DIC
Strategic Materials
Strategic Technology Challenges & Collaboration
Expanding Market Opportunities
Event/Industry Sponsors
Markets
Industry Challenges
• 450mm Wafer Transition
• EUV Lithography
• 3D Device Structures
Day 1 - Keynote
William M. Holt
SVP & GM, Technology
& Manufacturing Group,
Intel Corporation
William M. Holt, SVP & GM, Technology and Manufacturing Group, Intel Corporation
Day 1 - Keynote
William M. Holt
SVP & GM, Technology
& Manufacturing Group,
Intel Corporation
Day 1 - Session II
Semiconductor Markets
Bernard S. Meyerson
IBM Fellow and VP
Day 1 - Session II
Semiconductor Markets
Bernard S. Meyerson
IBM Fellow and VP
Day 1 - Session II
Semiconductor Markets
Bernard S. Meyerson
IBM Fellow and VP
Day 2- Keynote
Mike Splinter
Chairman of the Board
of Directors
President and Chief
Executive Officer
Applied Materials, Inc.
Day 2 - Session III
Strategic Materials
Tim Hendry
Intel VP and Director of
Fab Material
Operations
Day 2 - Session III
Strategic Materials
David Lazokvsky
President and CEO of
Intermolecular
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks
– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC
– Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends
– Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS
– Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A
– Open to All
SEMI Market Update
SEMI North America Members
Dan Tracy
SEMI
February 2, 2012
Outline
• Brief Market Observations
• Semiconductor Fab Trends
• Semiconductor Equipment Outlook
• Semiconductor Materials Outlook
• Summary
298 300
310
328
248 256 249
213
204
228
50%
226
25%
166
150
75%
139 141
0%
Semiconductor Revenue
Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, WSTS November 2011 Forecast
Annual Growth
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-25%
-50%
Annual Growth % (line graph)
100%
2000
$400
$375
$350
$325
$300
$275
$250
$225
$200
$175
$150
$125
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
1999
Global Semiconductor Revenue US $B
(bar graph)
Semiconductor Industry Outlook:
2011 To Exceed $300 billion
2012 Semiconductor
Revenue Forecasts
Semico Research (Jan 12)
10.1%
Future Horizons (Oct 11)
8.0%
IC Insights (Jan 12)
7.0%
Gartner (Sept 11)
4.6%
VLSI Research (Nov 11)
4.5%
Henderson Ventures (Dec 11)
4.0%
IHS iSuppli (Jan 12)
3.3%
WSTS (Nov 11)
2.6%
0%
Source: SEMI
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Installed Capacity by Region
27
Installed Capacity by Product Type
28
LED Fab Capacity by Region, 2011
Worldwide LED capacity
to reach 1.57M in 2011 (4”
equivalent per month)
Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Watch Nov. 2011
LED Market Outlook
• LED market is driven by LCD-backlit in the near term and
general lighting in the longer term.
• Recent market slowdown is caused by LCD panel weakness,
especially from TV. Demand is expected to pick up slowly
from 1Q12 onwards because of new TV models.
• Rapid capacity build-up in China has raised concerns about
oversupply and that may accelerate (China) industry
consolidation in coming years.
• MOCVD shipment is expected to slow down significantly this
year after two years of aggressive investment.
• 2” sapphire price has come to new low in 4Q11 which may
delay the migration to larger substrate size.
SEMI North America
Book-to-Bill Ratio
North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill
(based on three month averages)
$2,000
$1,800
US$ Millions
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
Bookings
$400
Billings
$200
$0
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11 (f)
Dec-11 (p)
Book-to-Bill Ratio
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
Dec-10
Jan-11
Source: SEMI January 2012
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11 (f)
Dec-11
(p)
SEMI® 2011 Year-End Equipment
Forecast by Market Region
US$ Billions
N. America
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Japan
Taiwan
Europe
$39.93
S.Korea
China
$41.80
ROW
$37.28
$40.05
$29.52
$15.92
2008
2009
2010
2011 (F)
2012 (F)
2013 (F)
ROW
2.61
1.44
3.84
3.47
2.9
3.15
China
1.89
0.94
3.68
3.77
3.53
3.80
S.Korea
4.89
2.60
8.63
7.99
8.59
8.36
Europe
2.45
0.97
2.34
3.90
3.35
3.52
Taiwan
5.01
4.35
11.25
8.05
6.88
8.33
Japan
7.04
2.23
4.44
5.82
5.23
5.69
N. America
5.63
3.39
5.75
8.80
6.77
7.20
Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: SEMI, November 2011
SEMI® 2011 Materials Forecast
By Market Region
US$ Billions
Taiwan
$55
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Japan
ROW
South Korea
China
North America
$47.64
Europe
$49.32
$51.31
$44.50
$42.52
$35.06
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
Europe
3.32
2.54
3.21
3.43
3.54
3.66
North America
4.99
3.76
4.57
4.92
5.10
5.25
China
3.57
3.28
4.28
4.80
5.09
5.57
South Korea
5.90
4.78
6.31
6.98
7.23
7.56
ROW
6.90
6.08
7.51
8.13
8.31
8.65
Japan
9.96
7.72
9.30
9.33
9.58
9.78
Taiwan
7.87
6.91
9.32
10.06
10.47
10.83
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2011
Summary
• Industry Outlook
– Economic challenges and risks remain in 2012
– Low- to mid- single-digit growth forecasted for semiconductor
revenues
• Fab Investments
– Forecasting 6% growth in fab capacity for 2012
– NAND capacity growth could surpass DRAM capacity
• Semiconductor Equipment Market
– Originally forecasting a -11% decline in 2012. Spending decline
could be in the single-digits.
• Semiconductor Materials Market
– 2012 outlook currently shows ~4% growth
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks
– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC
– Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends
– Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS
– Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A
– Open to All
Maximizing Investments in Products & Technology
Business:
Technology Solutions Company
Markets:
Semiconductor, Electronics and Aerospace
Ownership:
Privately-held Company
Revenue Profile: 20% growth, YOY, last 3 years
Founded:
1994
Headquarters:
Carlsbad, California
Global Presence:
7 facilities worldwide
Local presence in 14 countries
Solutions:
Product
Manufacturing
Engineering
Supply Chain
Employees:
150
Ross Martindale
VP of Marketing
1.408.622.9344
ross.martindale@mvts.com
MVTS Technologies
•
Sample Challenge/Issue
– Increase awareness for third-party value-add in semiconductor
secondary equipment market
– Not many standards / expectations for customers engaging with thirdparty suppliers
•
SEMI’s Role & Service
– SEMI SEA group formed in 2009 after SEC/N integration
– Broader forum of peers with common goals and business models
– Increasing visibility by defining and communicating standards
•
Result
– Standards and definition for the various business models
– Clearer expectations on equipment quality, service levels and post sale
support
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks
– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC
– Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends
– Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS
– Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A
– Open to All
Ray Morgan
Director Outreach and Membership
rmorgan@semi.org / 408.943.7043
WHAT WE CAN ACCOMPLISH
TOGETHER