Non-Life Insurance Valuation Issues in Asia Sam Gutterman, FCAS, FSA Topics Covered • • • • • Some statistics General Asian valuation issues Asian non-life market Japan Other countries 2 Population (billions) • • • • • • • • • South and East Asia Africa Central/East Europe Latin America Western Europe North America Middle East Japan Oceania 3.14 0.77 0.65 0.50 0.45 0.30 0.26 0.13 0.03 50.5% 12.4% 10.5% 8.0% 7.2% 4.8% 4.1% 2.0% 0.5% 1998 3 GDP ($trillion) • • • • • • • • • North America Western Europe Japan South/East Asia Latin America Central/Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Oceania 9.1 9.0 3.9 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 31.2% 31.0% 13.2% 9.6% 6.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1998 4 Non-Life Premium ($billions) • • • • • • • • • North America Western Europe Japan South/East Asia Latin America Oceania Central/Eastern Europe Middle East Africa 411 286 92 33 27 15 11 7 7 46.2% 32.1% 10.3% 3.7% 3.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 1998 5 Percent of Asian Non-Life Market • • • • • • • • Japan South Korea Taiwan China India Hong Kong Singapore Other SE Asia 74% 10% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 4% 6 Non-Life Premium per Capita ($US) • • • • • • • U.S. Japan Hong Kong South Korea Singapore Taiwan Malaysia 1,431 726 275 265 236 228 70 • • • • • • Thailand Philippines China Indonesia India Vietnam 20 7 5 3 2 2 1997 7 Asian Valuation Issues • • • • • • Each country different Language Culture Data Products Regulatory constraints 8 Each Country Different • • • • • • Economy Demography Market Regulatory regime Politics Approach to business 9 The Asian Non-life Market • Products – Biggest by far -- auto – High savings in some • Government protection changing • Companies consolidating • New entrants in some countries 10 Economy • Asian financial crisis -- severe impact – – – – South East Asian slump China, Taiwan, South Asia unaffected Few new autos Infrastructure projects cancelled • Recent recovery • Different penetration of insurance 11 Culture • Family-based • Lack of trust of others – Reluctance to let others in – Joint ventures -- don’t underestimate Asians • • • • Changing Growing middle-class Islamic law -- takaful (Allah & misfortunes) Desire for local champions, financial center12 Structural Shifts • Deregulation – Rates – Companies • Privatization in places • Joint ventures, alliances • Marketing • Direct selling -- phone, mail, internet • Bancassurance -- Hong Kong, Vietnam 13 Data • • • • Not used to casualty actuaries Generally not in Western form Validate anything they aren’t used to Be clear in questions 14 Japan -- Companies • Concentrated -- 31 companies & merging – Mitsui and Sumitomo --$54 billion of assets – Chiyoda and Dai-Tokyo – Koa and Nippon? • Importance of keiretsu system • Varied financial condition • New competitors – Inside Japan -- life insurers, non-insurers – Foreign insurers 15 Japan -- Products • General p&c products • Combination savings products – Guaranteed return with no claims • • • • Pricing more competitive Required earthquake reserve Mandatory 3 year auto liability product Mortgage guaranty in multi-line company 16 Japan -- Regulation • “Big-bang” • Loosening of rate regulation – Risk classes in auto introduced in 1997 • New financial guaranty system • Holding companies • New regulator 17 Japan -- Other • Growth -- sluggish or none • Marketing – New brokerage system – Direct selling – Banks • Formula IBNR – 4 lines • Asset problems 18 Vietnam • GDP per capita -- $320 • One privatized insurer – Owned by banks • Several recent joint ventures – Very slow getting started • No insurance law 19 Australia • Approach western • Four large purchases in last two years • Recent appraisals – – – – Discounted cash flows Depended heavily on cost reductions Bids dependent on competition Assessment of value of new business very different 20