Principles of Food, Beverage, and Labor Cost
Controls, Ninth Edition
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The first question operating managers must
ask themselves is very simple: "How many
guests will I serve today?" - "This week?" "This year?" The answer to questions such as
these are critical, since these guests will
provide the revenue from which the operator
will pay basic operating expenses.
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Forecasts of future sales are normally based
on your sales history since what has
happened in the past in your operation is
usually the best predictor of what will happen
in the future.
A sales forecast predicts the number of
guests you will serve and the revenues they
will generate in a given future time period.
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You can determine your actual sales for a
current time period by using a
computerized system called a point of sales
(POS) system that has been designed to
provide specific sales information.
Remember that a distinction is made in the
hospitality industry between sales
(revenue), and sales volume, which is the
number of units sold.
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Sales may be a blend of cash and non-cash.
With accurate sales records, a sales history
can be developed for each foodservice outlet
you operate and better decisions will be
reached with regard to planning for each
unit’s operation.
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Sales to date is the cumulative total of sales
reported in the unit.
Sales history is the systematic recording of all
sales achieved during a pre-determined time
period. Sales histories can be created to
record revenue, guests served, or both.
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Guest count is the term used in the
hospitality industry to indicate the number
of people you have served, and is recorded
on a regular basis. For many other
foodservice operations, sales are recorded
in terms of sales revenue generated.
Most POS systems are designed to tell you
the amount of revenue you have generated
in a given time period, the number of
guests you have served, and the average
sales per guest.
 When managers record both revenue and
guest counts, information needed to compute
average sales per guest, a term also known as
check average, is provided.
Total Sales
Number of Guests Served=Average Sales per Guest
Maintaining Sales Histories
Sales history may consist of revenue,
number of guests served, and average
sales per guest. You may want to use even
more detailed information, such as the
number of a particular menu item served,
the number of guests served in a specific
meal or time period, or the method of
meal delivery (for example, drive-through
vs. counter sale).
1.
2.
3.
By operating period, such as one week or
month, so that all sales records for an
entire operating period can be viewed
together on one page, card, or screen
By day of the week, so that all sales
records for a given day (Tuesday, for
example) for a period of several weeks can
be compared.
By entrée item, so that the degree of
popularity of a given item can be seen over
time.
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One of the most common of these conditions is
the weather. Most foodservice operators find
that weather conditions have a noticeable
impact on sales volume. In many
establishments, bad weather has a clearly
negative impact on sales volume.
Hotels and motels in major metropolitan
centers often find the impact of weather on
sales to be the opposite: Bad weather seems to
increase food and beverage sales in these
properties, probably because it discourages
guests from going out to nearby restaurants.

Special events can decidedly influence sales
and are often included in sales histories. The
occurrence of a national holiday on a
particular day or the presence of a particular
convention group in a hotel can affect sales
considerably. So can such varied conditions
as faulty kitchen equipment, a torn-up street
in front of the restaurant, or a major sale at a
nearby store.
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In addition to keeping records of numbers of
portions sold, many foodservice operators
use the data to determine a popularity
index. Popularity index is defined as the
ratio of portion sales for a given menu item
to total portion sales for all menu items as
illustrated in Figure 8.4.
The popularity index is calculated by
dividing portion sales for a given item by the
total portion sales for all menu items. The
index may be calculated for any time period.
Popularity index = Portion sales for Item A
Total portion sales
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A usual first step in forecasting is to predict
total anticipated volume: total numbers of
customers anticipated for particular days or
particular meals.
To arrive at a figure, one refers to the sales
history to find the total number of sales
recorded on each of a number of
comparable dates in the recent past.
When great differences are apparent,
reasonable efforts must be made to
determine the reasons for the differences.
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When the effects of surrounding conditions
have been evaluated, the next step is to judge
the extent to which these conditions will exist
and affect sales on the particular date or
dates for which one is preparing the forecast.
This may involve checking a local calendar for
coming events, following weather forecasts,
and looking into various other relevant
sources of information.
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After these steps have been taken, it is
possible to estimate the total business
volume that may be anticipated for the day
or dates for which the forecast is being
prepared.
◦ For example, if recent history indicated 300 to
315 sales for dinner on Mondays in pleasant
weather, one could reasonably anticipate that the
next Monday would bring approximately the
same volume of business if good weather were
expected. In this case, it would probably be safe
to predict 315 sales.
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The next step is to forecast the anticipated
number of sales of each item on the menu.
This is simpler to do if the menu is identical
to those that have appeared on Mondays in
the past.
However, it can also be done for changing
menus if the sales history is set up to
reflect the relative popularity of individual
items as compared with a changing variety
of other items appearing on the same
menu. This type of forecasting is more
difficult, but by no means impossible
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A production sheet is a form on which one
lists the names and quantities of all menu
items that are to be prepared for a given
date.
Production sheets translate management's
portion sales forecasts into production
targets. Production sheets list menu items
and quantities in terms that the chef and
staff can use in production.
The production sheet is best viewed as a
tool used by management to control
production and eliminate waste
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Production sheets vary in form and complexity
from one kitchen to another.
It would be filled out by a manager and
forwarded to the chef as many days in advance
as possible.
Upon receiving it, the chef would have valuable
information about both total anticipated
volume for a particular meal and the number of
portion sales anticipated for each item on the
menu.
With this information in hand, a chef is better
equipped to determine needs for perishable for
and for nonperishable foods.
There are two purposes for monitoring
quantity production:
1. To determine whether the sales forecast
has been reasonably accurate in predicting
both the total number of customers and
their individual preferences for particular
menu items
2. To judge how closely the chef has followed
the production standards established on
the production sheet.
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Whenever a portion is returned, an authorized
individual, such as a kitchen supervisor or chef,
records it on the void sheet, indicating the
name of the item, the number of the check on
which it appeared, and the reason for its
return. These entries can be most revealing to
an alert manager or food controller.
If the number of returns is consistently high
and evenly distributed among job
classifications, investigation may indicate
general understaffing. This finding may
suggest a need for additional personnel to
improve customer service.
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There are other important uses of the void
sheet as well, particularly when efforts are
being made to control portions by a certain
method such as control of preportioned
entrées.
If all returned portions must be recorded on
the void sheet and attested to by a member of
the management team, it is more difficult for
kitchen personnel to be careless with food.
The recording of returned portions makes
possible the reconciliation of kitchen records of
portions produced and records of portions sold
 It
is important to note that sales histories,
regardless of how well they have been
developed and maintained, are not sufficient
alone to accurately predict future sales.
 Your knowledge of potential price changes,
new competitors, facility renovations, and
improved selling programs are just a few of
the many factors that you must consider when
predicting future sales.
© John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2009