Department of Health Management and Health Economics
Faculty of Medicine
University of Oslo
English
Written exam December 9th 2013, 0900-1300
HEVAL5130 – Modeling in economic evaluation II
Part two: Written exam, 1 hour
No special exam resources are allowed.
Results will be made available Thursday, January 2nd, see the board at the
Department of Health Management and Health Economics, Forskningsveien 3A.
The results will also be posted on Studentweb.
The receiving day of the results is the day the results are posted on the board at
the Department. Appeals must be submitted within three weeks of this date.
The Written Exam consists of 3 pages including this one.
Remember to write down your candidate number so this is easily accessible
when the results become available.
1
FINAL EXAM HEVAL 5130 – December 9, 2013 – 1 hour theory questions
Question 1
A. Show the formula for EVPI (expected value of perfect information) and explain how it
is used
B. Explain the added benefit of EVPPI (expected value of perfect information for
parameters) compared to EVPI
C. The table below shows 10 iterations from a model. Calculate EVPI and interpret the
results.
Treatment Treatment
Iteration
A
B
1
7,2
9,1
2
5,4
9,3
3
5,4
6,2
4
5,4
8,5
5
7,7
9,2
6
9,0
5,6
7
8,8
7,3
8
8,6
9,0
9
6,5
9,6
10
8,6
5,2
Question 2A Conventional (static) models used in health economics implicitly assume that
the probability of disease exposure is constant over time and unaffected by interventions. For
transmissible infectious diseases – is this a realistic assumption? Are there other and better
models to use? (Explain your answer)
Question 2.B. A new vaccine for a common childhood infection is
being implemented in the Norwegian childhood vaccination program.
Before vaccination, the mean age of infection is 7.5 years. How will
vaccination affect the mean age of infection? (Give a qualitative
answer)
Question 2C
The basic reproductive number, R0, is defined as the average number of secondary cases
produced by an infected individual in a completely susceptible population. The graph below
shows the number of secondary infections obtained from contact tracing at the beginning of
an epidemic with a new emerging pathogen. Give you estimate of R0
2
3