Who Has the Power in
the EU?
Jason M. Barr
Department of Economics
Rutgers University, Newark
March 15, 2004
Outline of Talk

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EU Government structure
EU member and acceding countries
Theory of Voting Power
Measuring power in the EU
• EU 15
• EU 27 ‘Post-nice’
• EU 27 ‘Giscard’

Why Spain and Poland oppose
Giscard’s Proposal
The EU Government

European Parliament
• MEPs Directly Elected by citizens
• Legislative Branch

EU Council
• Ministers from member governments
• Legislative Branch

EU Commission
• Appointed commissioners
• Agenda Setter
EU Council

EU’s main decision making body

Represents member governments

Members are one minister from each
member’s national government

Rotating presidency every 6 months

Most issues passed by qualified majority
EU Commission



Represents EU as a whole
Proposes legislation (sets legislative
agenda) and enforces EU laws
Currently 20 members, after May 1,
1 one commissioner per country.
EU Meetings Highlights

Nice Summit, Dec. 2000
• Treaty of Nice: voting weights for Council for
EU 27

Laeken Summit, Dec. 2001
• Launched Constitutional convention for needed
institutional reforms

Constitutional Convention, July 2003
• Created draft for ratification by nations
• Chaired by Valery Giscard d’Estaing

ICG in Brussels, Dec. 2003
• Failed to research Constitutional agreement
EU Nations
Current Members















Austria
Belgium
Denmark
France
Finland
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
Acceding Countries
(date of membership)




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

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

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Bulgaria
(2007)
Cyprus
(5/1/04)
Czech Rep. (5/1/04)
Estonia
(5/1/04)
Hungary
(5/1/04)
Latvia
(5/1/04)
Lithuania (5/1/04)
Malta
(5/1/04)
Poland
(5/1/04)
Romania (2007)
Slovakia
(5/1/04)
Slovenia
(5/1/04)
Turkey
(na)
Research Question
How do



number of votes per country
majority threshold levels
preferences
affect power of countries within the
Council?
“The aim of the new EU constitution is to
produce a lasting settlement which could
endure up to 50 years, as opposed to the
three years of the Nice treaty.
Academics have been poring over the new
voting solutions being proposed to see who
will be the winners, and who the losers, in
any deal.”
-George Parker, journalist, www.FinancialTimes.com, 11/19/03
Theory of Voting Power



Views countries as ‘players’ in a
cooperative game.
Views legislature as a type of abstract
system: players form coalitions to pass a
bill.
Power is a function of a country’s
likelihood of being ‘pivotal’ member of a
coalition.
Measures of Power
without preferences

Shapley Value (SV)
• SV(i)= (# times i is pivotal)
(# orderings of voters)

Banzhaf Index (BI)
• BI(i)=
(# of times i is pivotal
where order before i not relevant)
(#coalitions with i)

Normalized Banzhaf Index (NBI)
• BI adjusted so sum of BI’s=1.
Example 1: Power without preferences





Three players
Player 1 has 49% of votes.
Player 2 has 48% of votes.
Player 3 has 3% of votes.
51% majority needed to pass.
Who has the most power?
Answer
They have equal power.
Since nothing can pass without at least
two players joining together.
 Having only 3% of the votes is not
indicative of actual power.
Example 2: Power without preferences



3 countries: 4, 2, 1 votes
5 votes needed to pass
Possible combinations:
• {4,2,1}, {4,1,2}
• {2,1,4}, {2,4,1}
• {1,2,4}, {1,4,2}

Shapley Values:{4/6,1/6,1/6}
Example cont.

Winning coalitions:
• {1,4}, {2,4},{_,_,4}
• {4,2}
• {4,1}


Banzhaf Values: {3/4,1/4,1/4}
NBIs: {3/5,1/5,1/5}
Shapley-Owen Spatial Value


If preferences are known we can use
them to help calculate likelihood of
joining coalitions.
Shapley Owen (SO) Spatial Value
is the probability of a country being
pivotal, given preferences.
Intuition


Simple majority: indifferent
countries most powerful, cet. par.
Unanimity: Most ‘con’ country is
most powerful.
Another Example
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5 countries
Every country has 1 vote
3 votes needed to pass a bill
Who has the power?
Now Preferences Matter

Let’s say 5 countries can be ranked
from 1 to 5:
• 1 is most con
• 3 is neutral
• 5 is most pro

Most likely coalition: {5,4,3}

 3 is most powerful
EU15 Votes – “PreNice”
Until May 1, 2004
Countries
Germany, France, Italy, and the UK
Spain
Belgium, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal
Austria, Sweden
Denmark, Ireland, Finland
Luxembourg
Total
Qualified Majority = 62 votes
Votes
10
8
5
4
3
2
87
EU 15: Votes and Population
Votes per 1M People
5
Votes vs. Population
4
Germany
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
Luxembourg
0
an
y
er
m
G
Fr
an
ce
Sp
ai
n
ed
en
Sw
el
gi
um
B
ga
l
Fi
nl
an
d
Po
rt
u
Pop (Millions)
100
bo
u
50
xe
m
0
rg
0
Lu
Votes
10
EU 27 Votes - ‘Post Nice’
Country
Votes
Ger, Fra, Ita, UK
29
Spa, Pol
27
Romania
13
Netherlands
13
Belg, Cze, Gree, Hung, Port
12
Aus, Swe, Bulg
10
Den, Ire, Lith, Slova, Fin
7
Cyp, Est, Lat, Lux, Slov
4
Malta
3
Total
345
EU 27: Votes and Population
Votes per 1M People
Votes vs. Population
8
35
Votes
7
30
6
25
5
Spain, Poland
20
4
15
3
10
2
5
1
0
0
0
50
Population (Millions)
100
al ux
M
L
t
Es
Ire
a
n
Fi lov
S
l
n
Bu Hu Cze Sw e
l
Po
Ro
m
r
a
Fr G e
EU 27 Qualified Majority

255 votes out of 345=74%

A majority of member states approve

Any member state can ask for
confirmation that the decision
represents 62% of EU’s total
population
Giscard’s Proposal



Nice agreement viewed as too
‘decentralized’
Small countries have more power to
block bills they don’t like
Giscard’s plan attempts:
• Centralize power in hands of big 4
• Preserve democratic foundations
• Simplify rules
EU 27 – ‘Giscard’ Scenario
Country
Votes
Country
Votes
Germany
82,193
Sweden
8,883
UK
59,832
Bulgaria
8,170
France
59,521
Austria
8,121
Italy
57,844
Slovakia
5,401
Spain
39,490
Denmark
5,349
Poland
38,649
Finland
5,181
Romania
22,443
Ireland
3,820
Netherlands
15,983
Lithuania
3,696
Greece
10,565
Latvia
2,417
Czech Rep
10,272
Slovenia
1,989
Belgium
10,262
Estonia
1,436
Hungary
10,024
Cyprus
671
Portugal
10,023
Luxembourg
441
Malta
390
‘Giscard’ Qualified Majority
At least 14 out of 27 countries vote
yes
and
60% of population (289,840 votes)
votes yes
Eurobarometer
''For each of the following areas, do you think that decisions should be made by
the (NATIONALITY) government, or made jointly within the EU?''
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Defense
Protecting Environment
Currency
Humanitarian Aid
Health and Social Welfare
Rules for media
Fighting poverty
Fighting unemployment
Agriculture Policy
Economic aid
Education
Science research
EU info. dissemination
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
Non-EU foreign policy
Cultural policy
Immigration
Rules for political asylum
Fighting organized crime
Accepting refugees
Police
Justice
Juvenile crime prevention
Urban crime prevention
Fighting drugs
Fighting human exploitation
Fighting terrorism
EU 15 Preferences
EU 27: Preferences
2
Poland
Latv ia
1
Estonia
Cy prus
Slov enia
Slov akia
Hungary
Romania
intra-national stance
Lithuani
Czech
Bulgaria
Greece
Malta
0
Denmark
Ireland
Germany
Portugal
Sweden
Spain
Belgium
Luxembou
-1
Italy
Netherla
Austria
France
UK
Finland
-2
-2
-1
0
inter-national stance
1
2
EU 15 Pre-Nice:
Measures of Power
Country
Votes
SV
NBI
S-O Spatial
Germany
10
0.117
0.112
0.142
Portugal
5
0.055
0.059
0.141
Spain
8
0.095
0.092
0.118
France
10
0.117
0.112
0.114
Austria
4
0.045
0.048
0.092
Belgium
5
0.055
0.059
0.083
Netherlands
5
0.055
0.059
0.076
Ireland
3
0.035
0.036
0.059
10
0.117
0.112
0.048
Sweden
4
0.045
0.048
0.047
Greece
5
0.055
0.059
0.045
10
0.117
0.112
0.025
Finland
3
0.035
0.036
0.009
Luxembourg
2
0.021
0.023
0.003
Denmark
3
0.035
0.036
0.000
UK
Italy
EU 27 ‘Post-Nice’
EU 27 Nice Proposal
Country
Votes
S-S
NBI
S-O Spatial
Czech Rep
12
0.034
0.037
0.132
France
29
0.087
0.078
0.101
Germany
29
0.087
0.078
0.091
Spain
27
0.080
0.074
0.089
Greece
12
0.034
0.037
0.063
Bulgaria
10
0.028
0.031
0.062
Netherlands
13
0.037
0.040
0.054
7
0.020
0.022
0.048
Italy
29
0.087
0.078
0.048
Poland
27
0.080
0.074
0.035
Belgium
12
0.034
0.037
0.033
Romania
14
0.040
0.043
0.030
Portugal
12
0.034
0.037
0.024
Slovakia
7
0.020
0.022
0.024
Lithuania
EU 27 Post Nice cont
Country
Hungary
Votes
SV
NBI
S-O Spatial
12
0.034
0.037
0.023
Ireland
7
0.020
0.022
0.021
Latvia
4
0.011
0.013
0.021
Denmark
7
0.020
0.022
0.020
Sweden
10
0.028
0.031
0.017
UK
29
0.087
0.078
0.016
Cyprus
4
0.011
0.013
0.014
Austria
10
0.028
0.031
0.011
Finland
7
0.020
0.022
0.010
Slovenia
4
0.011
0.013
0.006
Luxembourg
4
0.011
0.013
0.004
Malta
3
0.008
0.009
0.003
Estonia
4
0.011
0.013
0.000
With Presences: Votes are Poor Measures of Power
Post Nice EU 27
Relationship between Votes and Power Measures
0.150
Power
Shapley Values
Spatial Values
0.100
0.050
0.000
3
8
13
18
Votes
23
28
EU 27 – ‘Giscard’
Country
Votes
S-S
NBI
S-O Spatial
Austria
8,121
0.020
0.024
0.017
Belgium
10,262
0.023
0.027
0.022
Bulgaria
8,170
0.020
0.024
0.065
671
0.008
0.015
0.012
Czech Rep
10,272
0.023
0.027
0.035
Denmark
5,349
0.016
0.021
0.030
Estonia
1,436
0.010
0.016
0.025
Finland
5,181
0.015
0.020
0.016
France
59,521
0.107
0.091
0.092
Germany
82,193
0.157
0.127
0.185
Greece
10,565
0.024
0.027
0.023
Hungary
10,024
0.022
0.027
0.006
Ireland
3,820
0.013
0.019
0.048
Italy
57,844
0.105
0.089
0.076
Cyprus
EU 27 – ‘Giscard’ cont
Country
Votes
SV
NBI
S-O Spatial
Latvia
2,417
0.011
0.017
0.018
Lithuania
3,696
0.013
0.019
0.035
Luxembourg
441
0.008
0.015
0.000
Malta
390
0.009
0.014
0.004
Netherlands
15,983
0.032
0.033
0.033
Poland
38,649
0.071
0.063
0.001
Portugal
10,023
0.023
0.027
0.050
Romania
22,443
0.042
0.042
0.049
Slovakia
5,401
0.016
0.021
0.025
Slovenia
1,989
0.011
0.016
0.009
Spain
39,490
0.073
0.064
0.070
Sweden
8,883
0.021
0.025
0.006
UK
59,832
0.108
0.091
0.047
Votes and Power: Again little relationship
Giscard EU 27
Relationship between Votes and Power
0.20
Power
Shapley
0.15
Spatial
0.10
0.05
0.00
-
20,000
40,000
Votes
60,000
80,000
Question
Why has Spain and Poland
Opposed Giscard’s
Proposal?
Answer


Nice assigns them ‘big boy’ status
Gives them more ‘blocking power’
But…
How does S-O power change?
Power Comparisons for Spain and
Poland
Spain
Poland
Nice EU 27
Giscard
Nice EU 27
Giscard
Vote share
7.8%
8.2%
7.8%
8.0%
SV
8.0%
7.3%
8.0%
7.1%
NBI
7.4%
6.4%
7.4%
6.3%
S-O Spatial
8.9%
7.0%
3.5%
0.1%
Conclusions



France-German power axis due to
similarity of preferences and
population size.
‘Euroskeptics’ and ‘Euroenthusiasts’
lose out.
Nice arrangement probably not a
good idea for EU.