The Presidential Selection Process?
The Presidential Election Year:
A Chronology
The Electoral Calendar
• 2005-7: The Invisible Primary
–
–
–
–
Raise money
Organize
Get good press & momentum
Get support from party insiders
• January 1, 2008:
– Get federal matching funds
The Electoral Calendar
• January, 2008:
– Beat expectations in Iowa, New Hampshire,
and other early primaries
– Get good press!
• Feb-March, 2008
– Win primaries
– Benefit from opponents gracefully dropping out
of the race
The Electoral Calendar:
Late Spring, 2008
• Become the “presumptive nominee”
• Start raising money for the general election
• “It takes money to make money!”
• Fight off minor scandals as the press begins
to focus on you
• Make sure you’ve hired all the best
campaign professionals
The Campaign Organization
Campaign Chairman
Campaign Manager
Fundraising Director
Finance Chairman
Communications Director
Press Secretary
Policy Director(s)
Political director
Issues director(s)
Field director
Opposition research director
Pollster
Advertising consultant
Media consultant
State campaign chairs
State field directors
The Electoral Calendar:
Summer 2008
• Don’t run out of money
• Begin following electoral college strategy
The Blue and Red States
Sure things
• REPUBLICAN
STATES:
– AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6,
GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11,
KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9,
MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5,
NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7,
SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34,
UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3.
– Total: 176
• DEMOCRATIC
STATES
– CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3,
DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21,
ME: 4, MD: 10, MA:
12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI:
4, VT: 3
– Total: 169
The purple states
• The West:
– Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV,
– New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11 EV
• The Midwest:
– Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV, Ohio:
20 EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17 EV
– Wisconsin: 10 EV,
• Border states:
– Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV
• The South: Florida: 27 EV
• The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV
Number of visits as of 6/24/04
Bush:
Kerry:
 PA 29
 FL 20
 MO 17
 OH 14
- GA 13
- CA 13
- TX 13
 IA 11
 IA 71
 NH 68
- CA 29
- NY 27
 FL 23
 PA 19
 IL 14
 OH 12
Check mark indicates a purple state. Why visit the others?
The Electoral Calendar:
Summer 2008
• Don’t run out of money
• Begin targeting electorally rich swing states
• Continue doing four+ appearances every
day
• Raise and spend money up to federal limits
• Choose a vice-presidential running mate
The Electoral Calendar:
July/August 2008
• The Democrat:
– Give kick-a** speech at the The National
Convention
– Get a bounce in the polls from the Convention
coverage
– After the convention, get public financing for
campaign
– Start running nationwide ads
The Electoral Calendar:
September 2008
• The Republican:
– The Republican Convention: give a kick-a**
speech
– Republican gets bounce in the polls from
Convention coverage
– Eligible for public funding for general election
• Official Campaign Season Begins
Campaign strategies?
• Going Negative?
Campaign strategies?
• Going Negative?
• Going over the heads of the press?
• Choosing issues
The Electoral Calendar:
September 2008
• First debate takes place, after much argument
about format and timing
The Electoral Calendar
• October, 2008:
– Candidates spend the bulk of their time in states that are
competitive for both parties
– Parties and candidate-campaigns begin get-out-the-vote
drives and phone calls
• November, 2008: ELECTION DAY
– By late evening, one candidate has won the popular
vote in enough states to win 270 Electoral Votes, and
the Media declares a winner.
– One candidate concedes, the election, the other
proclaims victory
The Electoral Calendar
• First Monday following First Wednesday in
December: Electors meet in their state
capitols and cast their formal votes for
president
• January 6, 2009: The President of the
Senate opens and counts the votes
• January 20, 2009: The newly elected (or reelected) president is inaugurated
Some problems with the
Electoral College?
• Faithless Electors?
• A small/big state advantage?
• The winner of the popular vote doesn’t
always become president