Why Does Population Growth
Vary Among Regions?
Chapter 2 Key Issue 3
Earth’s Population History
7 billion reached 2011 (12 years later)
6 billion reached 1999 (12 years later)
5 billion reached 1987 (13 years later)
4 billion reached 1974 (15 years later)
3 billion reached 1959 (29 years later)
2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later)
1 billion reached circa 1830
Source: Kuby, HGIA
Demographic Transition Model
Explaining Spatial Patterns
of World Population Growth
Many graphics in this powerpoint are from Michael Kuby et al., Human
Geography in Action (instructor package) or online materials posted by Keith
Montgomery, Dept of Geology and Geography, Univ of Wisconsin - Marathon
County (http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm)
The Demographic Transition
• Process of Change in society’s population
from high CBR, CDR, and low NIR to a
condition of low CBR, CDR, and NIR
Demographic Transition Model
DTM based on historical patterns in Europe & other MDCs
DTM only predicts changes
in birth/death rates over
time
Observed changes in NIR
correlate to changes in
economic development
Thus, DTM implies:
The greater the wealth,
the lower the NIR... but use
caution describing this
relationship
Stages in Classic 4-Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
(Some books show a 3-stage model; others mention a new 5th stage)
Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial”
High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40)
Population growth very slow
Agrarian society
High rates of communicable diseases
Pop. increases in good growing years;
declines in bad years (famine, diseases)
No country or world region still in Stage One
Stage 2: “Early Industrial”
High birth rates (over 30) but death
rates decline (to about 20)
RNIs increase sharply (pop.
explosion); growth rate increases
thruout Stage Two
Growth not from increase in
births, but from decline in deaths
MDCs = starts early 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1950s
TRANSITION TO STAGE TWO IN CLASSIC DTM
Known as the Epidemiologic Transition
Agricultural technology
Improvements in food supply: higher yields as agricultural practices
improved in “Second Agricultural Revolution” (18th century)
In Europe, food quality improved as new foods introduced from Americas
Medical technology
Better medical understanding (causes of diseases; how they spread)
Public sanitation technologies
Improved water supply (safe drinking water)
Better sewage treatment, food handling, and general personal hygiene
Improvements in public health especially reduced childhood mortality
Declining Infant Mortality Rates
When IMR declines, fertility rates drop soon after
Stage 3: “Later Industrial”
Birth rates decline sharply (to
about 15)
Death rates decline a bit more
(to about 10 or less)
Note growth still occurs, but at
a reduced and declining rate
MDCs = starts in late 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1980s*
* Or hasn’t started yet
Stage Three:
Further
improvements in
medicine lower
death rates
more; raise life
expectancies
Measles Mortality, US, since 1900
TB Mortality, US, since 1900
TRANSITION TO STAGE THREE IN CLASSIC DTM
Known as the Fertility Transition
Societies become more urban, less rural
Declining childhood death in rural areas (fewer kids needed)
Increasing urbanization changes traditional values about having children
City living raises cost of having dependents
Women more influential in childbearing decisions
Increasing female literacy changes value placed on motherhood
as sole measure of women’s status
Women enter work force: life extends beyond family, changes attitude
toward childbearing
Improved contraceptive technology, availability of birth control
But contraceptives not widely avail in 19th century; contributed little to
fertility decline in Europe … Fertility decline relates more to change in
values than to availability of any specific technology
Rapidly increasing urbanization in world LDCs today
Population Classified as Urban
Strong inverse
relationship between
female literacy and
fertility rates,
observed globally
Increasing
availability and use
of modern
contraception in most
LDCs since 1970s
Stage 4: “Post-Industrial”
Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10)
Population growth very low or zero
MDCs = starts after 1970s
LDCs = hasn’t started yet
Stage 5 (?): Hypothesized (not in Classic DTM)
Much of Europe now or soon in population decline
as birth rates drop far below replacement level
Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries
Differences in DTM
experience: MDCs & LDCs
● Faster decline in death
rates — Tech improvements
diffused from MDCs & applied
rapidly in LDCs post-WW2
● Longer lag between
decline in deaths and decline
in births — Stage 3 slower
start in LDCs where econ
growth is delayed
● Higher max rates of
growth in LDCs — Over 3.5%
peak RNI in Mauritius and
Mexico; only 1.3% peak in
Age structures today in LDCs are much younger than MDCs
experienced – leading to prolonged “Demographic Momentum” –
expected growth of pop. long after fertility declines
Percentage of Population Under Age 15
The Demographic Transition
Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high
birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and
finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most
rapid in the second stage.
• Critics
– Based on England
– Billions and much faster then ever before
– Graying Population
– Medical Revolution- 1900’s
• Demographic Momentum (hidden
momentum)
Population Pyramid of the
U.S.
Population Pyramids in U.S. cities
Fig.
Population pyramids can vary greatly with different fertility rates (Laredo vs.
Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and
retirement communities (Naples).
Rapid
Growth
in
Cape
Verde
Cape Verde, which entered
stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950, is
experiencing rapid
population growth. Its
population history reflects
the impacts of famines and
out-migration.
Moderate
Growth in
Chile
Chile entered stage 2 of
the demographic transition
in the 1930s, and it
entered stage 3 in the
1960s.
Low Growth
in Denmark
Denmark has been
in stage 4 of the
demographic
transition since the
1970s, with little
population growth
since then. Its
population pyramid
shows increasing
numbers of elderly
and few children.
Summary of DTM for LDCs
Industrializing LDCs with some economic
development follow DTM more closely; now in
Stage Three. Most like MDCs in places where
female literacy has increased the most.
Lowest-income countries have high birth rates
and deaths are leveling off at higher rates than
DTM predicts (Stage Two).
In some LDCs, death rates starting to increase
(epidemics, worsening poverty)
Declining Birth Rates
• CBR declining rapidly since 1990
• Two successful Strategies
– Education and Health Care
– Contraception
• Critics
MALTHUS’ THEORY OF POPULATION GROWTH
 In 1798 Thomas Malthus
published his views on the effect
of population on food supply. His
theory has two basic principles:
 Population grows at a geometric
rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc.
 Food production increases at an
arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.
MALTHUS (CONT.)
The consequence of these two principles is that eventually,
population will exceed the capacity of agriculture to
support the new population numbers. Population would
rise until a limit to growth was reached. Further growth
would be limited when:
 preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of
fertility rate), increased cost of food etc.
 positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the death
rate.
MALTHUS (CONT.)
Population grows geometrically….
Population exceeds carrying
capacity…
Population is kept in “check”–
preventative and/or positive
checks
2. The Malthusian Crisis
■ The “Malthusian crisis”
• Available agricultural spaces are limited.
• Technical progresses (machinery, irrigation, fertilizers, and new
types of crops) are slow to occur.
• Increasing incapability to support the population.
• If this persists, the population will eventually surpass the
available resources.
• The outcomes are “Malthusian crises”:
• Food shortages.
• Famines.
• War and epidemics.
• “Fix” the population in accordance with available resources.
• Necessity of a “moral restraint” on reproduction.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. The Malthusian Crisis
t3
Quantity
Technological Innovation
t2
t1
Resources
Population
Overexploitation
Time
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. The Malthusian Crisis
■ The Malthusian Crisis has not occurred
• Malthus has been criticized on several accounts during the last
200 years.
• Religious view (Protestantism), racist and elitist.
• Did not foresee the demographic transition:
• Changes in the economy that changed the role of children in the
industrializing societies.
• Failed to account for improvements in technology:
• Enabled food production to increase at rates greater than arithmetic, often
at rates exceeding those of population growth.
• Enabled to access larger amounts of resources.
• Enabled forms of contraception.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
7
650
600
Billions
700
6
550
500
450
5
400
350
300
250
Wheat Production (tons)
Rice Production (tons)
Population
200
4
3
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
Millions
Global Growth in Population and Grain (Wheat
and Rice) Production, 1961-2005
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
ESTHER BOSERUP’S THEORY OF POPULATION
GROWTH
 In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths to feed,
Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a large population;
 In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more people there
are, the more hands there are to work;
 She argued that as population increases, more pressure is placed
on the existing agricultural system, which stimulates invention;
 The changes in technology allow for improved crop strains and
increased yields.
ANTI-POPULATIONISTS VS. PRONATALISTS
 Malthus– anti-populationist
 Echoed in recent debates by Paul Ehrlich, author of
The Population Bomb;
 Ehrlich believed that the earth’s carrying capacity
would quickly be exceeded, resulting in widespread
famine and population reductions;
 Boserup– pronatalist (cornucopian)
 Echoed in recent debates by Julian Simon, who
opposed Ehrlich by using economic theories; ie.
Resources needed to support populations are
becoming more abundant, not scarcer;
POSSIBLE STAGE 5: DECLINE
 Low CBR
 Increasing CDR
 Negative NIR
 Large Elderly Population
 Less Young Women having Children
 High Dependency Ratio---pensions, elder care
INDIA’S POPULATION POLICIES
 1952- National Family Planning Program
 Clinics
 alternative methods of birth control
 free or subsidized birth control
 Legalized abortions
 1971
 Sterilization for compensation---compulsory
 1977
 Family Planning to Family Welfare, noncompulsory
 1980s and beyond
 Education-limited success
CHINA’S POPULATION POLICIES
 Substantial Progress
 One Child Policy
 Permit to have a child
 Perks if they only have one
 Free contraceptives, abortions, sterilizations
 Enforced by the State Family Planning Commission
With capitalist economy comes relaxing of rules
 Second child family planning fee
SINGAPORE POPULATION POLICY
HTTP://HS-ESL.ISM-ONLINE.ORG/FILES/2011/03/SINGAPOREPOPULATIONREPORT.PDF
SINGAPORE POPULATION POLICY