WATER SCENARIO OF PAKISTAN
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, or the most intelligent, but the
one most responsive to change.”
Charles Darwin (1859)
Objective
To become Thought Leaders on water sector in Pakistan by
conducting a detailed study; analyzing the present and future
water balance leading to recommendations for public policy
development.
Background
Global Fresh Water Availability
Picture 1 : Freshwater availability (m3 per person per year, 2007)
Pakistan falls
in the water
stressed
regions!
20 % of the World’s population lives in water-scarce regions, and as many as 45 % of the
World Population could experience water scarcity by 2025
Background
Current Situation in Pakistan
Table 2:Per Capita Water Availability of Pakistan (WAPDA Report 2003)
Year
Population (M)
Per Capita
Water
Availability(m3)
Table 3:Per Capita Water Availability of different countries
Country
1955
1990
2025
USA
14,934
9,913
7,695
Philippines
13,507
5,173
3,072
1981
84
2100
Mexico
11,396
4,226
2,597
2000
148
1200
Iraq
18,441
6,029
2,356
2013
207
850
China
4,597
2,427
1,818
Pakistan
2,490
1,672
837
2025
221
659
Population Action Control ,1993
•
There is no consensus on the exact per capita water availability
•
The water situation in Pakistan is going from bad to worse
Background
Water Availability: Surface Water
Picture 3 :Tibet Plateau
Picture 4:Tibet Plateau and major rivers
•The sources of Indus and Sutlej is in the Chinese-held Tibetan Plateau
•Tibet has a unique triple role of Asia’s water repository, water supplier, and rainmaker
•The sources of Indus and Sutlej is in the Chinese-held Tibetan Plateau
Background
Pakistan’s Water Demand
Table 10:Pakistan’s Water Scenario
Year
2004
2025
Availability
104 MAF
104MAF
Requirement
115 MAF
135MAF
11 MAF
31 MAF
(Including Drinking Water)
Overall Shortfall
•
WAPDA has assumed a value of 104 MAF for it’s year 2025 vision since 2004
?????
Section 2:
Problems and Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan
Problems and Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
1
3
2
Poor Agriculture
Practices
4
Degradation of Water
Quality
Inadequate
Infrastructure
Policy Constraints
6
5
Increase in Water Demand
Politics
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
1-Poor Agriculture Practices
Table 12 :Seepage Losses in Irrigation System
Seepage Losses in Irrigation System
(MAF)
Grand Total
65.0
Seeps underground and replenishes Freshwater aquifer
33.0
Wasted in underground saline water aquifer
32.0
Bigger canals
8.0
Distributaries and minors
3.5
Water-courses
12.5
Agriculture Field
8.0
Source: Planning & Development Division Estimates
•
•
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Seepage losses in irrigation system due to poor irrigation infrastructure
The Irrigation System can be lined to avoid the freshwater seepage into the system
Easiest is to line watercourses as they can be isolated and attended all year round
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
1-Poor Agriculture Practices:
Low Agriculture Yield
Graph 2:Wheat yields per unit of land & water
Table 13 :Water Productivity for Wheat
Water
Productivity
for Wheat
Pakistan
India
California
0.5 kg/m3
1.0 kg/m3
1.5 kg/m3
Table 14 :Water Intensive Cropping
Water
Intensive
Cropping
% of Cultivated Land
Crops
Pakistan
USA
India
Wheat
53
17
30
Sugarcane
17
-
4.5
Rice
16
1
28
•The productivity of water in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world
•We are exporting our water in the shape of water intensive crops and products
*Major Crop is Corn:30% and Soya:27%
Glance at Poor Agriculture Practices
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
1-Poor Agricultural Practices:
Water Intensive Cropping
Picture 6:Overexploitation of groundwater from Aral Sea ,a huge reservoir of freshwater
1989
2008
•The demise of the Aral Sea in Central Asia remains one of the most iconic global images
•Cotton was unnecessarily sown around a thirsty area which converted Aral Sea into small ponds
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
Water Usage-Virtual Water
Graph 3: How many liters of water is required to produce 1 Kg of:
How many liters of water is required to produce 1 kg of:
Potatoes
Wheat
Milk
Citrus Fruits
Water Consumption
(liter)
Pulses
Rice
Meat
Cotton
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Adapted from ‘UNESCO’ (2009)
20,000
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
2-Inadequate Infrastructure:
Low Storage Capacity
Table 15 :No. of Storage Days of Different Basins
Table 16 :No. of Dams in Selected Countries
Basins (Country)
Storage Days
Country
Large Dams*
Colorado –USA
900
China
85,100
Murray Darling (Australia)
900
United States
9,265
Orange (South Africa)
500
India
5,102
Cauvery(India)
150
Brazil
1,392
Indus (Pakistan)
30
Pakistan
154
Pakistan has one of the lowest storage capacity in cubic meters per capita among semi-arid countries
* A large dam is defined by the dam industry as one higher than 15 metres
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
2-Inadequate Infrastructure:
Low Storage Capacity
Table 17:Water Storage Opportunity Lost during floods
River Flows & Storage Potential
Down Stream Kotri Average Flows (1976-2009)
31.31 MAF*
Uses
Minimum Downstream Kotri Requirement
minus
8.6 MAF
Capacity enhancement of Mangla Dam by raising dam height
minus2.9
MAF
Decrease in flow of Indian Rivers (As per Indus Water Treaty)
minus2.0
MAF
Water Going in Sea
17.81 MAF
*This is the quantity available during floods, otherwise the water flow is very low in normal years
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
2-Inadequate Infrastructure:
Siltation Reducing Storage Capacity
Table 18:Reservoir Sedimentation
Reservoirs
Storage Capacity
Original
Year 2009
Year 2012
Year 2025
MAF
MAF
MAF
MAF
Tarbela
9.68 (1974)
6.78
6.5
5.38
Mangla
5.34 (1967)
7.34*
7.32
7.08
Chashma
0.72 (1971)
0.37
0.43
0.34
15.74
14.49
14.25
12.8
Total
* =4.46 + 2.88(Increase in height)=7.34
•
•
Mangla Dam’s capacity was increased by 2.88 MAF in 2009
Our existing total capacity is approximately 14 MAF
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
2-Inadequate Infrastructure:
Flooding due to Siltation
•
•
•
•
Silt builds up in dams & barrages
River width compromised due to settlement and population growth
Reduced river width causes silt deposition in the river bed, reducing its depth & flow capacity
High risk of disastrous flooding to human settlements close to the river in the future
•
•
Over the past 67 years, there have been 21 major floods in Pakistan(NDMA)
These floods have inflicted a cumulative financial loss of more than $37 billion
Graph 4: Flood Losses in Pakistan
Problem & Challenges of Water
Management in Pakistan
2-Inadequat Infrastructure:
Unfavorable Climate Change
Picture 7: Flood 2010
The volume of flood water was more than 4 times of
Pakistan's annual reservoirs’ capacity
Picture 8: Flood 2014
•Flood in the Chenab River played havoc in the country
•It caused over 200 deaths and over 700 villages washed away
Section 3 :
Recommendations for Water Challenges in Pakistan
Recommendations
Short Term Recommendations (Within 1 Year)
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•
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•
•
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•
•
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Lining of Water Course & Distributaries
Floodwater Harvesting-New Lakes
Rainwater Harvesting
Artificial Rain
Fish-duck-rice farming
Importing Water-Intensive Products
Efficient Water Resource Management
Hydroponics
Grey Water Harvesting
Recommendations
Mid Term Recommendations (1 to 5 years)
•
•
•
•
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•
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Water Pricing
Dredging Barrages & Upstream areas within bunds
Construct more link canals between rivers
Check Dams
Cropping Pattern/Better Yield Crops
Improving Urban Water Distribution
Industrial Wastewater Treatment
Reverse Osmosis of Saline Water
Long Term Recommendations(More than 5 years)
• Lining of Canals
• Desalination
• Building dams & reservoirs