Mortgages - dedeklegacy.cz

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Institute of Economic Studies
Faculty of Social Sciences
Charles University in Prague
Lesson 4
Mortgages
Financial Instruments
ļƒ˜ Definitions
Mortgages are various types of long-term financial instruments that
intermediate housing financing
ļ± Balloon mortgage is characterized by instalments that cover only interest
payments and the original balance is repaid at maturity of the mortgage
ļ±
Potential problem with repayment of the entire balance at maturity
(disastrous consequences during the Great Depression)
ļ±
Level-payment (traditional, annuity) mortgage is characterized by equal
instalments that are made up of an interest payment and a repayment of
part of the original mortgage balance
1
š»0
Mortgages
š“
š“
š“
2
3
T-1
š“
T
š‘‡ … term of the mortgage
š»0 … original mortgage balance
š“ … regular instalment (made up of interest payment and
principal repayment)
2
ļƒ˜ Annuity formula
ļ±
Fair value principle requires the equality between the mortgage loan and
the present value of all instalments discounted at a given mortgage rate
š‘‡
š»0 =
š‘”=1
š“
1+š‘Ÿ
š‘”
1
1
=š“×
1−
š‘Ÿ
(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘‡
š‘Ÿ(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘‡
ļƒ° š“ = š»0 ×
= š»0 × š‘Ž š‘‡ (š‘Ÿ)
(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘‡ −1
š‘Ž š‘‡ … annuity factor for the period T
ļƒ˜ Decomposition of the regular instalment
ļ±
In each period a fixed mortgage payment consists of interest paid
on an outstanding mortgage balance and repayment of a portion of
the outstanding mortgage balance
š“ = š‘Ÿ × š»š‘”−1 + š»š‘”−1 − š»š‘”
ļ±
ļ±
Formula for the remaining mortgage balance (at the end of the period t)
(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘‡ −(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘”
š»š‘” = š»0 ×
(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘‡ −1
Formulas for the interest payment and the principal repayment (in the
period t)
š‘”−1
š‘‡
š‘”−1
š‘Ÿš»š‘”−1 = š»0 ×
Mortgages
š‘Ÿ × (1 + š‘Ÿ) −(1 + š‘Ÿ)
(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘‡ −1
š»š‘”−1 − š»š‘” = š»0 ×
š‘Ÿ × (1 + š‘Ÿ)
(1 + š‘Ÿ)š‘‡ −1
3
Payment calendar (annuity approach)
ļƒ˜ Payment calendar is a table arranging all mortgage cash
flows
1
Beginning
balance
š»0
Ršžš š®š„ššš«
š¢š§š¬š­ššš„š¦šžš§š­
A
šˆš§š­šžš«šžš¬š­
payment
š¼1 = š‘Ÿ × š»0
šš«š¢š§šœš¢š©ššš„
repayment
š‘ƒ1 = š“ − š¼1
Unpaid
balance
š»1 = š»0 − š‘ƒ1
2
š»1
A
š¼2 = š‘Ÿ × š»1
š‘ƒ2 = š“ − š¼2
š»2 = š»1 − š‘ƒ2
...
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
T
š»š‘‡−1
A
š‘ƒš‘‡ = š“ − š¼š‘‡
0
Tš¢š¦šž
š¼š‘‡ = š‘Ÿ × š»š‘‡−1
ļƒ˜ Compilation of payment calendar
ļ±
ļ±
ļ±
ļ±
ļ±
Mortgages
Calculation of fixed regular instalment using the annuity formula
Calculation of interest payment as a product of the beginning balance and
the mortgage rate
Calculation of principal repayment by deducting the interest payment
from the regular instalment
Calculation of unpaid balance by deducting the principal repayment from
the beginning balance
Unpaid balance becomes the beginning balance in the next period
4
Payment calendar (synthetic approach)
ļƒ˜ Sequence of prepaid mortgages
š»1
š»2
š“
š“
1
š“
2
š»1
š»0
3
š»2
T-1
š“
T
š»š‘‡−1
š“ = š»0 × š‘Ž š‘‡ = š»1 × š‘Ž š‘‡−1 = . . . = š»š‘‡−1 × š‘Ž1
ļƒ˜ Compilation of payment calendar
1
Beginning
balance
š»0
š€š§š§š®š¢š­š²
šŸšššœš­šØš«
š‘Žš‘‡
2
š»1
š‘Ž š‘‡−1
...
.....
.....
T
š»š‘‡−1
š‘Ž1
Tš¢š¦šž
ļ±
ļ±
ļ±
ļ±
Mortgages
š‘šžš š®š„ššš«
instalment
š“ = š»0 × š‘Ž š‘‡
š“ = š»1 × š‘Ž š‘‡−1
Interest
payment
š¼1
šš«š¢š§šœš¢š©ššš„
repayment
š‘ƒ1
Unpaid
Balance
š»1
š¼2
š‘ƒ2
š»2
.....
.....
š‘ƒš‘‡
0
.....
š“ = š»š‘‡−1 × š‘Ž1
š¼š‘‡
Calculation of annuity factor
Calculation of regular instalment as a product of the beginning balance
and the annuity factor
Decomposition of the instalment into interest and principal payments
Unpaid balance becomes the beginning balance in the next period
5
ļƒ˜ Three components of mortgage cash flow
Interest payment
Scheduled principal repayment
ļ± Prepayments – payments in excess of regularly scheduled repayments
ļ±
ļ±
Πš‘” = š‘š‘” × š»š‘”−1 − š“š‘”
Πš‘” …
š‘š‘” …
š»š‘”−1
š“š‘” …
prepayments in the period t
prepayment rate in the period t
mortgage balance at the beginning of the period t
scheduled principal repayment in the period t
ļƒ˜ Reasons for exercising prepayment option
Right of the borrower to pay off a part or all of the mortgage at any time
Default on meeting mortgage obligation (the property is repossessed,
sold and proceeds are used to pay off the mortgage)
ļ± Social: change of employment, divorce, insured natural disaster, etc.
ļ±
ļ±
ļƒ˜ Prepayment risks
Contraction risk: declining mortgage rates speed up prepayments ļƒ°
investors are forced to reinvest unplanned cash at lower market rates
ļ± Extension risk: rising mortgage rates slow down prepayments ļƒ°
investors are deprived of cash that could be invested at higher market
rates
ļ±
Mortgages
6
ļƒ˜ Tilt (erosion) effect
120
šœŒ … real mortgage rate
šœ‹ … rate of inflation
š‘Ÿ = 1+šœŒ × 1+šœ‹ −1
=šœŒ+šœ‹
100
Percent
Inflation progressively erodes (tilts) the
purchasing power of principal repayments
ļ± The tilt can be addressed by including
expected inflation in mortgage rates
ļ±
šœ‹ = 10%
80
60
40
20
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Year
ļƒ˜ Affordability problem
High mortgage rates with incorporated inflation result in high real value
of instalments at the beginning of the mortgage life ļƒ° reduced
affordability of mortgages for large segments of population
In stalment (%)
ļ±
250
Term of the mortgage: 20 years
Real mortgage rate: 4 %
Nominal mortgage rate =
real rate + inflation rate
200
150
100
50
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Inflation (%)
Mortgages
7
ļƒ˜ Definition
In the GPM plan the stream of instalments grows at the rate of
inflation which leaves the real value of instalments unchanged
ļ±
š“š‘” = šŗ0 × 1 + šœ‹
š‘”
Pricing equation
ļ±
š‘‡
š»0 =
š‘”=1
š“š‘”
1+š‘Ÿ
š‘‡
š‘”
=
š‘”=1
š“š‘” … regular instalment in the GPM plan
šŗ0 … real instalment (paid in the absence of inflation)
šœ‹ … rate of inflation
šŗ0 × (1 + šœ‹)š‘”
1
1
=
šŗ
×
1
−
0
1 + šœŒ š‘” × (1 + šœ‹)š‘”
šœŒ
(1 + šœŒ)š‘‡
ļƒ° šŗ0 = š»0 × š‘Ž š‘‡ (šœŒ)
ļƒ˜ Payment calendar – price-level adjusted mortgage (PLAM)
Tš¢š¦šž
š‘”
Real beginning
balance
š»š‘”−1
š‘šžššš„
instalment
š“
š‘šžššš„ š®š§š©ššš¢š
balance
š»š‘”
Price
index
š‘ƒš‘”
š‘šžš š®š„ššš«
instalment
š“ × š‘ƒš‘” š‘ƒ0
Effective
unpaid balance
š»š‘” × š‘ƒš‘” š‘ƒ0
ļƒ˜ Potential drawbacks of the GPM plan
Small instalments at the beginning but high instalments at the end of the
mortgage life ļƒ° potential problem for households whose income cannot
keep pace with inflation
ļ± Negative amortization means that instalments are insufficient to cover
interest so outstanding mortgage is increased by unpaid interest
ļ±
Mortgages
8
ļƒ˜ Definition
The mortgage is provided and repaid in a currency which is different
from the currency of the country in which the borrower is resident
ļ± The mortgage payments may be made in domestic currency but their
size changes in line with changes in the exchange rate of foreign currency
ļ± The charged interest rate is based on foreign interest rates relevant to
the currency in which the mortgage is denominated
ļ±
ļƒ˜ Incentives
Significantly lower interest rates on foreign currency then interest rates
on domestic currency
ļ± Prospects for strengthening of domestic currency against foreign
currency (borrower's cost of repaying the mortgage is less in terms of
domestic currency)
ļ±
ļƒ˜ Risks of open exchange rate position
Open currency position (currency mismatch) – revenues in one currency
are used for paying expenditure in another currency
ļ± The mortgage borrower is exposed to the risk of the weakening of
domestic currency (he/she makes a capital loss)
ļ±
Mortgages
9
ļƒ˜ Definition
Various techniques of financial engineering in which individual assets
(mortgages, credit card receivables bank loans and other) are pooled and
used as source of cash flow for the creation of new securities called assetbacked securities (ABS)
ļ± Securitization with mortgages gives rise to mortgage-backed securities
(MBS) or collateralized mortgage obligations (CMO)
ļ±
ļƒ˜ Participants in securitization
Originator
Mortgage 1
SPV (conduit)
Pool
Mortgage 1
MBS 1
MBS
Investor 1
Price
Price
Mortgage X
Investors
Mortgage X
MBS Y
Investor Z
Originator: provides mortgage loans and arranges them in a pool
ļ± Conduit: buys the pool that is used as collateral for the issuance of MBS
ļ± Investor: invests in various risky classes of MBS
ļ±
Mortgages
10
ļƒ˜ Definition
Agency deals are backed to some extent by guarantees of government or
government-sponsored institutions (in USA Fannie Mac, Freddie Mac,
Ginnie Mae)
ļ± Major concern of investors is the prepayment risk
ļ±
ļƒ˜ Sequential pay structures
ļ±
A set of bond classes with specified rules for tranching of the collateral
Principal (both scheduled and prepaid) is distributed first to the bond class A
until it is completely paid off, then all principal payments are made to bond
class B until it is completely paid off and so on
ļ‚§ Interest is distributed to each class on the basis of the principal outstanding
ļ‚§
ļƒ˜ Instruments
Passthrough securities are MBS which redirect the cash flow from an
underlying pool on a pro rata basis to all holders
ļ± Stripped MBS separate the distribution of interest payment (IO class) and
principal repayment (PO class)
ļ± Other innovations: PAC or TAC bond, companion bond, accrual bond,
floater, inverse floater and others
ļ±
Mortgages
11
ļƒ˜ Definition
ļ±
ļ±
MBS issued by private conduits without any government guarantees
Major concern of investors is the credit and default risk
ļƒ˜ Forms of credit enhancement
Excess spread is the difference between an average interest rate paid by
the mortgage pool and an average interest rates paid to the MBS holders
ļ± Over-collateralization is the difference between the market value of the
mortgage pool and the market value of MBS issued to investors
ļ± Third party guarantees are provided by private financial institutions
ļ± Diversification means the application of various concentration limits (per
borrower, size of loans, industry, geographical region, etc.)
ļ±
ļƒ˜ Subordination structures
A set of bond classes with priority rules for absorbing losses from the
underlying pool of mortgages
ļ± Equity class ļƒ° junior class ļƒ° mezzanine class ļƒ° senior class
ļ± Higher level classes has a prior claim over lower level classes, they start
absorbing losses only after the lower classes are completely wiped out
ļ± The higher the class, the better its credit rating and the lower its yield
ļ±
Mortgages
12
ļƒ˜ Advantages
Reducing funding costs (securitization means secured lending, desired
credit rating assigned to MBS can be achieved by credit enhancements)
ļ± Managing corporate risk (credit or interest rate risks are removed by
selling the pool of risky mortgages)
ļ± Managing regulatory capital (lower retained risk with the originator
results in lower requirements for regulatory capital)
ļ±
ļƒ˜ Critiques
Lax underwriting standards (originate-and-distribute practices reduce
motivation to asses properly the credit quality of borrowers)
ļ± Greater opaqueness of risk exposures (securitization structures are too
complicated to be understood by investors, high complexity leads to
overreliance on the ratings assigned by rating agencies)
ļ± Flawed incentives (rating agencies are paid primarily by those who are
the issuers of MBS rather then by those who are the investors in MBS)
ļ± Reduced effectiveness of monetary policy (securitization allows
borrowers direct access to end lenders thus reducing the traditional role
of banks in the financial intermediation)
ļ±
Mortgages
13
© O. D. LECTURING LEGACY
See you
in the next lecture
Mortgages
14
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