WORLD ELECTRONICS FORIUM
Indian Opportunities in ICT
Presentation
By
N K GOYAL
President, CMAI Association of India, CMAI
Chairman Emeritus, TEMA
Director, National Fertilizers Ltd. ( Government of India Undertaking)
nkgoyals@yahoo.co.in 98 111 29879
www.cmai.asia
14-17th November, 2009
Telecom in Asia


Asia is a region of superlatives in the ICT arena with
over two billion telephones, including 1.4 billion
mobile subscribers, and 42 per cent of the world’s
Internet users
Asia is also the world’s largest broadband market
with a 39 per cent share of the world’s total at the
end of 2007.
(ITU’s 2008 Asia Pacific Telecommunications and ICT Indicators Report)
www.cmai.asia
Advantage India





At $ 1.15 Tr India is the third largest consumer on PPP basis.
India ranks better than China and Vietnam on the Index of
Economic Freedom although it is lower than the world average as
awarded by The Heritage Foundation and WALL STREET JOURNAL.
India scores higher than China and Vietnam on “World Rankings
property rights”, which describes the protection of property and
intellectual property rights
India has a score of 38 on “economic measure of income
inequality” better than China (47) US (45) Japan(38) but poorer to
UK (34). Shows equal distribution of wealth.
The annual supply of science and engineering graduates is higher
than China and other developed countries




Over 2.3 million graduates and 0.7 million post-graduates each year
2nd largest pool of scientists/ engineers in the world
Highest number of qualified engineers, second on trained doctors
389 universities, 14,169 colleges, 1,500 research institutions
India’s Electronics Potential




Current India market size about US $ 34 Bill. out of which production
$16.1 Bill. Ranked 26th in the world in sales, 29th in production
Demand growing 25% CAGR, from 4% of GDP to 12% by 2015 i.e..
320 Bill. Total production may go up to $ 150 Bill. with employment
potential of 21 mill.
Indian ICT spending is expected to grow at 19% from $ 29.5 Bill.
During 2004 to $54.8 Bill by 2008
Consumer Electronics (CE) is the largest segment of the Electronics
sector. It contributes 33% to the Electronics production in the Country.
The total production of Consumer Electronics is estimated $5625
million during 2007-08 registering a growth of 12.5%
www.cmai.asia
Opportunities in Indian ICT
Sector









63.5 million telecom subscribers in rural India
2nd largest and fastest growing wireless market in the world
Average addition of 15 million telecom connections every
month
India to have 13 million WiMAX subscribers by 2010
Mobile gaming market expected to reach US$250 million by
2010 at an annualized growth rate of 106%
Indian IT market is projected to grow to US$25bn by 2013
Network security market to grow at CAGR of 17.6% till 2013
89.1 million IPTV subscribers by 2012
Demand for set-top boxes expected to grow upto 60 million
by 2015
Total Pay-TV subscribers to grow from 73 million to 137
million by 2012
Electronic Components



Consumption of electronics equipment in India will be
$363 bn. by 2015. (Frost & Sullivan)
India has the potential to manufacture electronics
equipments worth $155 bn by 2015.
Most of this growth is expected to come from
manufacturing of information and communication
technology products, and office automation.
www.cmai.asia
BELL’S TELEPHONE



Alexander Graham Bell, keenly interested in the
education of deaf people, invented the microphone
and in 1876 his "electrical speech machine," ie
today’s telephone. Bell set up the first telephone
exchange in New Haven, Connecticut in 1878. By
1884, long distance connections were made between
Boston, Massachusetts and New York City.
Since his death in 1922, the telecommunication
industry has undergone an amazing revolution.
Today, non-hearing people are able to use a special
display telephone to communicate.
Bell's "electrical speech machine" paved the way for
the Information Superhighway. Fiber Optics are
improving the quality and speed of data
transmission.
www.cmai.asia
Indian Telecom










World’s fastest Growing Telecom Market – 10-15 Million plus subscriber
addition per month
Second largest in the world after China
509 Mn. subscribers, 475 wireless
281 state-of-the art Networks (GSM+CDMA)
24 National Long Distance & 19 ILD Licensees
Lowest tariff but highest profitability.
Lowest Call Rates in the World
India ranks highest in Mobile monthly Minutes of Usages per
subscriber in Asia Pacific Region and second to USA in the world….500
minutes per month
Innovative approach of doing business at lowest operation costs.
Innovative value added concepts…missed calls, rural applications,
lowest prepaid charge, per second billing
www.cmai.asia
CONTINUED WIRELESS
GROWTH EXPECTED DUE TO







Booming economy, rising income, increasing available
disposable surplus
Continued big demand, rural potential
Introduction of Number Portability by mid 2009
New Operators bringing in competition, spread and cheaper
tariffs
Introduction of 3G, Wimax technologies
Operators allowed intra service roaming
Operators scouting cheaper handsets eg. Spice with IDH Media
Tek, Taiwan for $15 handest. Also no screen sets being
considered.
www.cmai.asia
Opportunities Ahead







World’s second largest market after China, growing highest per month.
3G & Broadband wireless Auctions to start shortly
MVNO to be allowed shortly
ISPs, NLD, ILD licenses available
FDI 74% in operations and 100% fro manufacturing
Rural Telecom, Broadband, VAS market
New Innovative services, Mobile payments, location based services
www.cmai.asia
Telecom challenges worldwide






Health and environmental concerns resulting in several law suits, myths
and alarms.
Consumer concerns on quality, tariff and after sale service issues.
Use of telecom network by terrorists, ant social activities
Technology misuse in all sorts of crime ranging from credit card fraud
to data theft to simple defamation. Regulatory means for this and also
to avoid unsecured wireless networks.
Increasing awareness of restrictions sought for use of mobiles in
schools, public areas, while driving, offices etc. For ex.
New York banning cell phones in schools and Indian Parliament
Committee examining need for reasonable restrictions in use of mobile.
www.cmai.asia
Technology Battles



Telecom is characterized by Hype and Technology debates.
At any given time there must be a live technology debate in
telecom era.
The question for network operators is no longer which
technology is best--WiMAX or LTE--but which application will
compel consumers and enterprises to upgrade to 4G. Will it be
video? Or will it just be more bandwidth for the always-on,
always-available wireless broadband connection that consumers
have come to expect?
www.cmai.asia
Game of Patents IPR


American Society of Composers, Authors & Publishers is taking
it one step further and calling it a violation of copyright law.
According to a filing obtained by the Electronic Frontier
Foundation (EFF), the performance rights organization has filed
suit against AT&T, claiming that every time a musical ring tone
goes off in public, the song constitutes a performance and,
therefore, violates copyright law.
Both carriers and mobile content providers already pay a
licensing fee to songwriters and publishers for each ring tone a
consumer downloads, but ASCAP is alleging that additional
royalties are owed when these same ring tones publicly perform
– i.e. ring in public.
Free….Not so free


June, 2009 Verizon paid $ 1.5 Mill. to Florida State as
settlement for third-party charges that appeared on
consumers' bills. The customers were charged for
ring tones, wallpapers and other mobile content that
had been marketed as free
February,2009 AT&T Mobility refunded thousands of
Florida consumers for the same problem. AT&T
agreed to pay Florida $2.5 million and contribute
$500,000 toward consumer education on safe
Internet use.
www.cmai.asia
Hype v/s reality




Internet speed….India Govt. says 256 Kbps, vendors
talk of 2 Mbps….as per TRAI no body even gets 256
Kbps.
We hear faster speed…but what and under what
conditions…no body declares
There is no one in the world who knows for sure
where we are heading or how we will get there.
Hype: LTE will provide about 50 Mbps data services.
Fact: Only in a lab where there is a 20 MHz wide LTE
system and there is only one user.
www.cmai.asia
LTE SPEED
http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/vodafone-no-lteeurope-2010/2009-07-09?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal





Ericsson UK's CTO John Cunliffe,
"The technical guys know that advertising those big speeds is
damaging, but they're the numbers the marketing guys want to push,"
"It's difficult, if one company is advertising the maximum speed, for
another to then turn around and advertise the likely speed. It's going
to need everybody to be honest."
While the technology is theoretically capable of hitting 150 Mbps,
Ericsson admits they are unlikely to be replicated in the real world. A
company spokesman suggested users could see an improvement of
around "10 times over their current experience on a 3.6 Mbps mobile
broadband connection."
Cunliffe said Ericsson's road map will see the vendor moving from 150
Mbps to 300 Mbps and then 600 Mbps during the initial phase of LTE.
Advanced versions of the technology will exceed 1 Gbps, but that
capability is a ways off.
www.cmai.asia
New Innovations costing
others and now self?






Almost every week a new application is announced which also aims to
take additional revenue from existing others. And slowly it has started
affecting the industry itself. Take example of Mobile VOIP
Mobile VoIP is moving beyond its initial function as a new mechanism
to get inexpensive international/local calls.
MVNOs and 3G operators without legacy networks using Mobile VoIP to
more cost effectively add voice to data offerings.
While Mobile VoIP still poses a direct threat to operator voice revenue,
it also represents a dynamic new capability that promises numerous
applications.
Skype and Vonage have influenced users to think of voice as a data
application.
As user habits are being shaped by rich on-line communication
experiences, mobile carriers control over devices and data applications
is waning.
www.cmai.asia
Security Threats




The speed with which criminals are capitalizing on world events,
growing collaboration among cyber criminals and a growing threat from
disgruntled former employees.
Less than 24 hours after the news of Michael Jackson’s death first
broke, spammers had sent more than 5 billion spam emails, reaching a
peak of more than 5% of global spam
The creators of the Conficker worm, which infected an estimated 9
million computers starting late last year, had established an agreement
with the makers of the spambot, Waledac, to help monetize each
other’s efforts in a partnership of product and distribution.
RIM makers of blackberry says UAE Etisalat issued update during July,
2009 for increasing performance was actually spay ware. It could allow
unauthorized access to private information and emails and it reduces
drastically battery life.
www.cmai.asia
SIM Card Security Scheme



Security Accreditation Scheme (SAS), the global programme
voluntarily managed by the GSM Association.
Under this certification there are 20 SIM card manufacturers
globally accredited by GSMA. There are six are from China.
Yet there is only one SAS-compliant manufacturer
www.cmai.asia
We talk of Numbers & $ ?


We always listen to big numbers like "12 operators committing
deployments in 2010" and "$1 billion R&D investment required
to build LTE products" and more are making frequent headlines.
Viewing these numbers in isolation provides only a partial and
one-dimensional view of the issues facing the industry and what
this means.
www.cmai.asia
We talk of Speed in Telecom?


JOHANNESBURG South Africa 11-month-old pigeon took one
hour and eight minutes to fly the 50 miles from Unlimited IT's
offices near Pietermaritzburg to the coastal city of Durban with
a data card strapped to its leg.
Including downloading, the transfer took two hours, six minutes
and 57 seconds — the time it took for only four percent of the
data to be transferred using a line provided by Telkom.
www.cmai.asia
Cracking GSM Codes


The Chaos Computer Club, Germany-based hacking community
with more than 4,000 members, is co-coordinating worldwide
efforts to crack the code. They say they are doing so to raise
awareness about security flaws in the GSM system. They say
governments and organized crime gangs already hack into the
GSM network and want to push mobile phone companies to
improve security.
In 2007 a reporter from the UK’s News of The World Sunday
tabloid and a private investigator were jailed for illegally tapping
into the mobile phones of hundreds of high-profile figures in the
quest for news stories.
www.cmai.asia
About CMAI





CMAI is an apex business and trade promotion organization,
based in India with MOU partners and representatives spread
across over 30 Countries with branch offices in Japan, Korea,
Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia.
CMAI is integrated telecom and IT association covering all
verticals.
CMAI is involved in policy formulations with Government and
other stake holders for Technology Innovations, Indigenous
manufacturing
CMAI is developing scientific knowledge and practical means for
protecting human ecology and environment from the harmful
effects of environmental hazards like e waste, radiation etc.
CMAI assists manufacturers to maximize competitiveness in the
domestic and international markets.
www.cmai.asia
About CMAI
With CMAI membership, you gain access, authority, and intelligence
designed to help you to:







Protect interests when standards and policies are being
formulated
Engage peers regularly about market challenges or business
opportunities
Access timely news, information, and market intelligence
Expand business to overseas markets efficiently and effectively
Gain a competitive advantage through convergence
Take the Lead on green initiatives in the ICTE Industry
Participate in Indian and global Exhibitions, Seminars, Workshops
www.cmai.asia
Where is my cell phone mama..
I want to SMS to God that I have reached safely!
THANKS….
www.cmai.asia
+91 98 111 29879
FOR LISTENING