The development of renewable heating policy in the United Kingdom Peter M. Connor*, Lei Xie, Richard Lowes, Jessica Britton, Thomas Richardson Corresponding author: +44 (0)1326 371870, P.M.Connor@exeter.ac.uk All authors: University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Treliever Road, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9EZ Abstract The historical focus of renewable energy policy in the UK, as in most nations, has been on supporting deployment in renewable energy sources of electricity. The adoption of ambitious EU wide targets for renewable energy has forced greater consideration of renewable energy sources of heat (RES-H). The UK pushed ahead rapidly in considering different policy options and legislating a new instrument, the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) to support RES-H, a form of tariff mechanism designed with the specifics of RES-H in mind, though translation into application has been slow. The evolutionary process which led to the current policy instrument is considered, along with the need to consider other elements to work with it. This represents a new and novel application of policy to an area where there are few examples of large-scale policies which go beyond direct capital subsidy. Keywords Renewable Heat Policy; Renewable Energy Policy; UK Energy Policy; Renewable Heat Incentive Introduction While the UK is relatively rich in some of the resources necessary for generation of renewable energy, the level of exploitation is low, with renewable energy sources of electricity (RES-E) accounting for only 15% of electricity generated in 2013. The UK ranked 25th out of 27 EU Member States at the end of 2012, with only 4.4% of all primary energy requirements met from renewable energy sources [1,2,3]. 1 The UK was one of the first nations to adopt policy to stimulate renewable energy sources of electricity (RES-E) [4]. As with most states however, it has been less active in supporting renewable energy sources of heat (RES-H). The need for a new RES-H support instrument became more strongly apparent with the EU’s 2009 Renewable Energy Directive. This ratified an EU wide target of 20% of all energy to come from renewables by 2020, with a legally binding 15% overall target for UK energy consumption [5]. The UK’s 2009 Renewable Energy Strategy gave a breakdown as to how the overall 15% national target might be met. The primary scenario suggests that by 2020 over 30% of electricity, 12% of heat, and 10% of energy used in transport should come from renewable sources [6,7]. The UK looked set to take a pioneering approach to RES-H, moving relatively rapidly to adopt the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI), a form of tariff mechanism modified to meet the specific characteristics of RES-H and on a par with the RES-E support instruments used across Europe. RES-H characteristics are substantially different from those of RES-E and attempts to design and redesign the RHI have emphasised the need to consider different approaches and the additional difficulties. This paper details the evolving solutions that the UK has considered for RHI design in order to inform future design efforts. Attempts at its practical application have required a move beyond the theoretical work so far carried out (for example, [8,9,10]) and consideration of the approaches taken in its design and of the problems that have emerged may usefully assist in informing development of instruments elsewhere. The RHI was introduced in law in late 2008 and though delayed on multiple occasions, the pathway to its adoption has highlighted many of the issues and 2 difficulties faced in designing support for the incentivisation of large-scale RES-H deployment. It represents an early attempt by a European government to develop and apply a financial instrument at the national-level that derogates from the grant style mechanisms which has been the mainstay of the expansion of RES-H to date. The decisions as to what to attempt and the evolution of the instrument that has emerged is an interesting one for all policy makers attempting to stimulate adoption of renewable energy technology. Further, the adoption of the RHI also represents a key element in a wider shift in policy from the UK’s historical focus on quota based mechanisms. This shift was not inevitable when the process to determine the choice of instrument began, and has been influenced by the lessons derived from the UK and wider RES-E policy experience. It is argued that this represents a significant exemplar of policy learning as regards renewable energy policy. However, before either of these can be considered it is important to lay out how the UK currently sources heat. 1 1.1 Architecture of the Market for Heat in the UK Heat use in the UK The UK consumed 746TWh of heat energy in 2012, accounting for 47% of total UK energy consumption [3]. Gas accounts for around 80% of this figure [11] and the displacement of fossil fuel heating thus represents a major element of any meaningful climate change mitigation strategy, or a holistic renewable energy policy strategy. Heat consumption contributes around one third of UK CO2 emissions [11]. Domestic sector heating accounts for more than half of all heat consumption, with space heating being the dominant element of this demand [12]. Heat energy 3 accounted for ~79% of energy use in domestic dwellings in 2009; while this fraction remained largely stable in the period 1990-2007 the total amount of energy used across all dwellings rose by 20% in the period, reflecting both increased personal consumption and an increase in the number of dwellings from 22.7 million to 26.0 million [11,12,13]. While, average weather corrected domestic gas use in the UK has been reducing over the last five years [14] the high proportion of total energy used for heat emphasises the importance of addressing both reduction in domestic heat demand through energy efficiency programmes and the need for more sustainable heat energy. Similar action is also required for the service and manufacturing sectors. Gas is the dominant fuel in the domestic heating sector, accounting for 81% of total heat energy consumption. Around 7% of domestic heat comes from electricity with nearly 9% from oil [11]. The UK service sector has much lower heat energy consumption than the domestic sector and the fraction produced from gas is also lower, at ~66% [12], with the difference accounted for by greater reliance on electricity for heating purposes (24% share of the total). The manufacturing sector shows further variance, with gas accounting for just over 54% of total heat consumption, electricity for 24%, an oil share of 14%, and with solid fuel accounting for the remainder. The sectoral differences are likely to be the result of the different economics of energy supply to the industrial sector, by the less rapid turnover of energy systems in the manufacturing sector and by the requirements for industrial process heat, higher temperatures and other qualities [12]. These different demands will have implications for RES-H uptake and policy design. 4 Gas is dominant in the UK heating due to its relatively low cost, aided by its relative abundance in recent decades as the UK exploited its own fields. Switching from gas to renewable heat must overcome substantial cost hurdles, and if RES-H is to achieve significant deployment it will require support to try to reduce it below the cost of gas. This will mean financial support for RES-H and possibly other measures concerning environmental externalities relating to gas. This paper will focus on initial attempts at provision of financial support for RES-H in the UK. Despite the barriers, the large volume of carbon associated with heat means there are few alternatives. The introduction of district heating, currently a negligible technology in the UK, may offer further potential and needs to be considered, both as a partner technology to RES-H and to exploit waste heat. 1.2 Significant Stakeholders in the UK Heat Energy Market The dominance of gas in the heat market, and particularly in the domestic sector, means gas supply companies are the major stakeholders in the heat market. While there are more than 20 gas and electricity suppliers active in the UK market, the market for both is dominated by six major utilities: British Gas, EDF Energy, E.ON, RWE Npower, Scottish Power, and SSE. Both are relevant since 7% of domestic heating, 23.5% of heat used in industry and 24.5% of heat used in the service sector comes from electricity [15]. In 2013 the previously state owned monopoly supplier British Gas still supplied 40% of connected households with gas [16]. No specific body has responsibility for oversight of the supply of heat energy and heating fuels in the UK. However, in so much as a majority of heat comes from networked gas then the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) have some relevant responsibility. The role of regulation relating to UK RES-H is discussed in section 5. 5 Ofgem are responsible for administrating the RHI, taking responsibility for payments, auditing and enforcing the scheme. Clearly it is necessary for some agency to take on this responsibility and Ofgem were the obvious candidate in a field with few alternatives. Ofgem are also the likeliest body to take on responsibility for any additional RES-H regulatory provision that may be needed. 2 Current Renewable Energy Sources of Heat in the UK The UK Government estimates that 20.1TWh of renewable heat was generated in the UK in 2013, or about 2.8% of heat demand, with the proportion increasing from 2006 to 2012 after steady decline from 1994.Heat from renewable sources increased by 19% in 2013 [2]. The relatively larger share of primary energy consumption associated with heat means that the total fraction of energy consumption met by renewables rose to only 3.0% in 2009 and then 4.1% by 2012 [2,17]. This emphasises the need for effective RES-H policy if overall RE targets are to be met. Figure 1 shows the steady increase in RES-E deployment and generation in the period 1990-2013 and the decline from 1995-2005 and then relatively gentle upwards gradient as regards RES-H. The main sources of renewable heat generation in the UK in 2010 were direct biomass combustion (nearly 90% of the total renewable heat generated in the UK), active solar thermal systems (8%), and heat pumps (2%) [2]. 6 Figure 1: Trends in the use of renewable energy for heat, electricity and transport [2] The increase in the period from 2006 – 2012 can be attributed to a number of smallscale support instruments which are described in section 3. It can be noted that it is not seen as desirable to continue to rely on these to drive the scale of RES-H technology that is required for the UK to meet its targets. There are various reasons for this. Some of the instruments do not default to driving renewable energy but can prefer energy efficiency which makes strategic planning difficult. Some are intended as pilot projects and not for large-scale application. Some, but by no means all, of the 19% increase in 2013 is likely to have been driven by the development of the RHI and the Renewable Heat Premium Payment (RHPP) with the percent of renewable heat supported by the RHI increasing from 1% to 3% between 2012 and 2013 [2]. 2.1 Biomass Biomass is the most significant source of renewable heat in the UK, generating 84% of total renewable heat generated in 2013 [3]. The primary biomass used in the UK is woody biomass and waste with high biomass content, such as municipal “black bag” 7 waste. Comprising around 35% of the renewable heat total, domestic use of wood is the biggest contributor of renewable heat. Further significant growth is anticipated in the short to medium term [3]. Industrial combustion is a much smaller contributor, though a number of policy initiatives are in place to expand the use of wood in this sector, including targeted support for supply chain development and investment in technological R&D. The RO has driven considerable increases in biomass use since 2002, subsidising biomass co-firing for electrical generation. However, there has been little (or no) emphasis on co-production of renewable heat. The UK has made some effort to drive biomass in particular, though as Jablonski et al note, this has met with limited success. The authors focussed on residential heating from biomass and conclude that the sector can actually be segmented and that different segments can be expected to respond differently to different policy instruments. [18] The Biomass Task Force estimated potential for biomass heat in the range 47.756.1TWh [19]. The central scenario of the UK’s Renewable Energy Roadmap [20] suggests a range of RES-H generating potential of 35-50TWh in non-domestic biomass use (largely biomass boilers and biogas) by 2050, with even the most pessimistic scenario suggesting 27TWh. The Biomass Task Force [19] outlined the barriers to the general growth of biomass use in the UK. These include: Ignorance of the potential of biomass as an energy source Heavy emphasis on RES-E, with little value attached to the carbon emission reduction potential of RES-H 8 Issues related to the designation of waste and the implementation of waste regulation A fragmented approach by national and regional government Planning issues Lack of a robust supply chain Past market conditions undermining CHP project viability The lack of an effective single voice for the industry DEFRA’s ‘Renewable Heat Initial Business Case’ and ‘Renewable Energy Roadmap’ set out a similar set of barriers impacting multiple RES-H technologies, whilst also emphasising the costs associated with retrofitting of existing infrastructure with RESH technologies. Both reports highlighted the need for long-term financial support to address the high initial capital costs of RES-H [19,21] and argued for effective policy initiatives for RES-H on a par with those existing for RES-E. The Biomass Task Force also highlighted several regulatory barriers specific to biomass for RES-H production [19]. 2.2 Solar Thermal A domestic solar thermal system is generally held to require around 5m2 of panels to meet the needs of a typical UK home, though there is significant variation due to size of dwelling and location. This size of installation would cost around £4800, though domestic systems are available in the range £1000-£8000. The Energy Saving Trust (EST) suggests typical household savings of £55/year if switching from gas, and £80/year if switching from an electrical immersion heater. Clearly, this does not allow for a return on investment and significant expansion of this sector will require 9 financial support. Estimated carbon savings for this typical system are 230kg (switching from gas) and 510kg (switching from electricity) annually. [22] The Renewable Heat Initial Business Case suggested a figure for solar thermal production of 0.3 TWh/year generated in 2005 [21]. UK Government statistics record an increase to from 1.13TWh in 2010 1.78TWh 2012 [2] indicating an annual rate of increase of 25%, albeit from a very low base. Total installed capacity was estimated at 0.5GW th by the end of 2012 [23]. DECC’s Initial Business Case suggests the potential for solar thermal energy in the UK in three scenarios up to 2020. The first, ‘business as usual’, suggests a potential of 1.2 TWh/year by 2020, a figure which is likely to be exceeded. The second, based on low market potential against total technical potential, suggests 4.9TWh/year by 2020, while the third, ’high market potential’, projects 17.1TWh/year by 2020. The latter would represent a very substantial increase and would require a significant change in prevailing conditions. The document suggests that solar thermal will require support in the range £3 £51/MWh if deployment outlined in the two market potential scenarios is to be achieved [21]. High initial capital costs and installation costs are cited as the key financial barriers to solar thermal deployment. These documents emphasise other barriers including public perception issues, particularly noting that solar thermal technology is seen as “complicated, unproven and of dubious benefit” by the general public [21]. These are issues that have been actively addressed in the successful design of RES-H policies in other countries [24]. Planning delays are also raised as an area for attention, along with building regulations [21]. 10 2.3 Heat Pumps and Geothermal Energy Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) and air source heat pumps (ASHP) offer significant future potential to UK RES-H generation, though currently only a limited amount of installation has taken place. [25] Heat pumps are commercially less mature in the UK than either biomass or solar thermal. As of the end of 2013 DECC estimated total installed capacity of 963MW (approximately 60,000 installed heat pumps) mostly from the domestic sector [20]. However a number of recent reports and scenarios concerning future UK energy provision have presented electrification of domestic heating as a key feature, with heat pumps as a key technology [26]. NERA/AEA [27] estimated that GSHP and ASHP could produce 19.7 TWh/year by 2020. More recent figures in the Renewable Energy Roadmap [20] suggest nondomestic heat pumps might contribute 16-22TWh, rising to 50TWh in the most optimistic scenario. It should be noted that a significant fraction of the potential highlighted in these projections comes from ASHPs however ASHPs have only been included under the non-domestic scheme since 4 December 2013. Both the domestic and non-domestic schemes therefore now support air-to-water heat pumps but air-to-air heat pumps are not supported under either scheme. [28, 29] 3 Historical and Ongoing Policies Applied to the Support of RES-H in the UK The UK has been developing a RES-H support policy which has gone far beyond the programmes that have previously existed. This section reviews historical support for RES-H beyond those mechanisms already discussed. 11 3.1.1 Grants Historically the UK, as with other EU Member States, has tended to apply grants as its RES-H key support mechanism. The primary target groups for grants/loans have been RES-H system manufacturers, developers and homeowners installing their own RES-H systems. Policy initiatives relevant to the sector have been relatively small-scale and tended to be technology specific. These policies have begun to be introduced since 2000 and include [30,31,32]: Community Energy Programme (£75M grant, biomass, 2001-2007) Bio-energy Capital Grants Scheme (£25M, grants, biomass, 2002-) Community Renewables Initiative (£2.5M, small-scale, limited funds, 20022007) Clear Skies Initiative (£10M, grants, biomass & solar, 2003-2006) Bioenergy Infrastructure Scheme (wood and straw supply chain, £3.5M, 20052008) Biomass Heat Accelerator (£5M, grants, biomass heat, 2006-2011) Low Carbon Buildings Programme, (£48M, grants, small scale RE including RES-H, 2006-2010) Energy Crops Scheme (Grants to establish energy crops, 2007-2009) Generally, financial support has been unstable and characterised by short time horizons and often limited and sometimes fluctuating budgets. Grants help to relieve the burden of upfront capital costs - a major barrier across all renewable energy technologies, but particularly to residential sector uptake. However, it has been suggested that the intermittent and limited nature of funding availability within some 12 programmes can become a constraint, owing to a lack of surety of support [33]. There is no guarantee that desired targets can be achieved in practice. Connor et al [10] suggest that effective foresight for efficient planning of production and investments is made very difficult by the resulting demand fluctuations. It has also been argued that grant schemes alone are not sufficient, and need to be supplemented by loans to provide more stable deployment, improved market demand stability and better support for the innovation process. [34] The most recent grant programme linked to RES-H, the Low Carbon Building Programme (LCBP), typifies some of the problems. The LCBP started as a £30 million programme providing capital grants of 30%- 50% of the capital cost of small– scale installation of renewable technology. However, initial funding ran out rapidly and the programme had to be re-launched with additional support and a new method for allocating funding. [25,35] Many previous UK RES-H policy instruments have focussed on the development of biomass as an energy source, reflecting both the dominant role of bioenergy in the UK RES-H sector, and recognised difficulties in its uniquely complex supply chain. The UK’s experience with the LCBP particularly indicates the need for a long term commitment to a support mechanism, and that it must be transparent and as predictable as possible in the long term. It also emphasises the need to get a support instrument right first time, if the mechanism is to provide the stable conditions that favour investment. [9,10,31] 3.2 Other instruments A number of other policies have been introduced with the potential to provide incentivisation for the adoption of RES-H, although this might not be their primary 13 purpose. These additional mechanisms may all produce more attractive conditions for RES-H in the UK by making the alternatives more expensive. These include: The Climate Change Levy is a tax on all fossil fuel use by all commercial entities without a specific exemption, applied via gas and electricity consumption. Renewable generation is exempted. One study suggests the levy is equivalent to a carbon tax of £10/tonne, but notes that this was not enough to overcome the cost disadvantage of most RES-H systems alone. [36] The Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme, introduced in 2010, is now a carbon taxation scheme for large non-energy intensive businesses and public sector organisations. The Renewables Obligation (RO) is the UK’s central mechanism for the financial support of renewable electricity sources. It does not provide direct support for RES-H but since it does support electrical production from biomass, CHP systems are effectively subsidised, potentially accelerating deployment. Changes to the RO mean that biomass-fired CHP receives higher subsidies than systems without CHP for their electrical generation [37]. Clearly, the application of this form of support for electrical generation using biomass also drives competition for biomass resource. The RO will be phased out over the period 2014-2017 in favour of Contracts for Difference, a mechanism aiming to operate with similarities to a feed-in tariff. [38] The Energy Companies Obligation, (from 2013, formerly the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target - CERT, 2008-13 and the Energy Efficiency Commitment – EEC, 2002-2008) is an obligation on large electricity supply companies to reduce domestic consumer emissions. It requires the utilities to invest in home improvements which can include energy efficiency and microgeneration (RES-E and RES-H). The 14 scheme incentivises utilities to achieve reduction goals at minimum cost which has driven funding to energy efficiency over RES [39]. This was estimated to require investment of £3.5billion by the utilities [40,41]. The mechanism allowed the regulator to remove technologies from eligibility should the market become saturated. Thus, in theory, RES-H might eventually become more attractive within the ECO. The Government gave some consideration to the interaction of the ECO/CERT with the RHI. The most notable concern was that since utilities could install RHI eligible technologies, and also count the associated carbon savings towards CERT obligations, this would effectively result in “double incentivisation”. Although it was noted that this might be justified if it drove sufficient growth in deployment [42]. This willingness to apply incentives through multiple instruments was perhaps always unlikely to survive in a policy environment demanding significant cuts in public support. In this instance, the time extended version of the CERT limited support for deployment of renewables to customers in a group defined as ‘Super Priority’ (essentially consumers most likely to be most vulnerable to fuel poverty), effectively avoiding duplication of effort as regards the RHI and RES-E specific financial support [43]. While the delineation of the incentives makes sense, the problem with this separation is that it then places all the emphasis on the RHI, where significant delays for domestic premises left the technology under-supported. The ECO Obligation has been reduced after a Government consultation of 2014 [44]. The Green Deal provides loans to assist householders in improving their property’s energy performance. Introduced in October 2012 it is an attempt to overcome the problem of access to capital for improving energy efficiency in dwellings. Loans are 15 provided only where likely to provide an overall saving to the homeowner, with the loan paid back against the reductions in bills – the consumer bears the risk if savings do not materialise. The Green Deal Oversight and Registration Body (GD ORB) manages authorisation of providers, auditors and installers on the Government’s behalf. The Green Deal was intended to complement the ECO. Some small-scale RES-E and RES-H technologies are eligible Green Deal loans, dependent on economic merit [45]. Notably, all domestic RHI applicants will have to make a Green Deal Application (GDA) to ensure premises are sufficiently energy efficient to warrant a RES-H subsidy. Those installing RES-H under the Green Deal will be eligible for RHI subsidy. Third parties who contract to provide RES-H systems may also be eligible to receive RHI payments. It is the adoption of a Renewable Heat Incentive that marks the UK’s pioneering move in providing a policy instrument intended to be able to provide the huge scaling up that will be required if the UK is to meet its RES-H and overarching EU renewable energy targets. 4 The Renewable Heat Incentive The Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) is the first major step taken by the UK towards its aspirational 12% RES-H target. The RHI represents a major new application of a tariff mechanism, specific to RES-H – this remains a relative rarity and thus is an important renewable energy policy development. The process of instrument design has highlighted the specific challenges of supporting RES-H, and given consideration to different approaches to meeting these challenges. This is significant since it represents a very early attempt to do so and the process has revealed 16 substantive problems that will need to be considered in designing instruments for other jurisdictions. Germany has previously made efforts to adopt a bonus mechanism (similar to the RHI, but German policy used the term bonus to make it clear no ‘Feed in’ to a network was happening) to support RES-H but this was withdrawn after being declared unconstitutional and after misgivings over the complexity of its application as proposed [8,46,47]. The mechanism proposed in Germany would have applicability elsewhere and might not encounter the same legal barriers to adoption. It is not clear whether the UK gave consideration to adopting a mechanism similar to the one considered in Germany. The RHI was introduced into UK legislation RHI in the 2008 Energy Act, though without any operational detail. It has since moved a process of repeated consultation combined with multiple delays to adoption. The original proposal and the story of the development of the instrument and its current form are considered below. 4.1 General RES Policy Context of the UK To understand the factors that have shaped the adoption of the RHI, it is important to understand the UK’s historical approach to renewable energy. UK RES-E policy has been rooted in using mechanisms which mimic the application of markets to as great an extent as possible, with a desire to minimise interference with the wider energy market strongly influencing instrument design. The focus on competition continued with the UK’s current primary financial support mechanism for large-scale RES-E. The Renewables Obligation (RO) is a fairly typical example of a quota mechanism, albeit with some novel features [48,49]. It places an obligation on all electricity supply companies to purchase an annually 17 rising fraction of electricity from renewable sources. Supply companies demonstrate compliance by submitting certificates; these are awarded to registered RES-E generators who sell them to supply companies either with or separately from their electrical output. The mechanism aims to create a RES-E market to incentivise supply companies and RES-E generators to compete to drive down prices, rooted in a belief that this will deliver RES-E most cost effectively. Additionally this minimises interference with the electricity market. However, problems have manifested since the RO’s introduction. Growing experience with operational RES-E feed-in tariffs around Europe has undermined the argument as to superior cost effectiveness on the grounds of risk and this now appears to be accepted by even economically conservative commentators [50,51,52]. This has led to calls for its replacement, and the UK is now adopting a Contracts for Difference, with some tariff-like qualities [38,49]. This debate over the relative merits of support provision for renewable electricity, and the conclusions over comparative cost shaped the process which led to the selection of the RHI. 4.2 The Route to the RHI The first serious effort to push for the adoption of a non-grant based RES-H financial support instrument began around 2003 with renewable energy trade associations and NGOs campaigning for a heat equivalent of the RO. Support for a quota style instrument represented an acceptance that this was at the time the most politically acceptable option. While this was not regarded as ideal it was seen by many as far more likely to win political approval due to the political capital already invested in the RO. Supporters regarded any mechanism as better than a complete absence of any significant financial support. This effort led to the proposal of a Renewable Heat Bill 18 in January 2005, its progress ending when it was pushed out of the parliamentary calendar by the 2005 general election, [53]. A number of reports assessing the relative merits of different options for RES-H support were produced which together considered the barriers to RES-H growth and qualitatively and quantitatively assessed the relative costs and benefits of different potential instruments [21,33,36,54]. The UK preference for quota mechanisms continued to influence government through 2007 and 2008, reflected in a number of high level assessments recommending such a mechanism [33,36]). Perhaps the most notable was an assessment which suggested a tariff support might be more economically attractive but that a quota mechanism might be preferable on the grounds of ‘cultural compatibility’ [33]. That is, the UK’s greater familiarity with quota style mechanisms (specifically the RO) should determine the RES-H support mechanism. This contradicted a core justification for the initial adoption of the RO (and other UK RE support), as well as being at odds with established good practice in renewable energy policy in the UK and elsewhere (e.g. [55,56,57,58]). Essentially, there appears to have been a conflict here which impacted the UK Government’s position. On one side the then Government was responsible for devising and adopting the RO, and had a political commitment to the justification for its adoption. This might have meant a loss of political capital if the Government declined to select a quota mechanism since this would acknowledge a quota might not be the most effective for growing RES and thus that the Government had erred in adopting the RO. On the other hand, the RES-H modelling demonstrated that a tariff would be cheaper than an RO/quota style mechanism. [33] 19 The debate at this stage may have been influenced by a couple of factors. Firstly, the growing evidence concerning the relative costs of quotas and tariffs noted above. Secondly, the UK had made efforts to apply the RO to domestic scale RES-E, with results that suggested very high transactional and administrative costs due to the large number of generators and low volume of energy produced by each generator. Data for the RES-E micro-generation element of the RO suggested the regulator’s administrative costs alone (excluding participants’ transactional costs) were substantially higher than the actual subsidy; £650,000 against £400,000 for only ~2000 systems [59]. Since applying a quota to RES-H could be expected to require a much greater concentration of small-scale applications than the RO had supported, and given the lower energy value for heat, then it could be expected that applying a quota to RES-H would also be expensive, potentially with an even greater ratio of costs to subsidy. This debate was effectively terminated in November 2008 when the Government surprised much of the sector with the unexpected addition of the RHI to the 2008 Energy Act. This was announced as an intended tariff-based instrument. While this Act established the RHI as a legal requirement, it provided no details of the RHI’s operation, but simply placed an obligation on the relevant Energy Minister to develop the instrument over the subsequent twelve months. 4.2.1 The Initial Proposal The RHI as originally proposed suggested fixed payments for heat generated from eligible technologies. Eligibility of technologies within this proposal was widely cast [60] and included: air, water and ground source heat pumps; geothermal energy; solar thermal; biomass boilers; biogas supply; bioliquids; biomethane; and combined 20 heat and power using renewable fuel stuffs. This list was later reduced for the initial offering and then expanded upon after the scheme’s introduction. Subsidies varied by technology and scale of application, typically set to provide an estimated typical rate of return of 12% [6]. The UK Government suggesting this represented “a return on...investment that reflects the opportunity cost of capital and the level of risk and effort involved” [61]. The exception was solar thermal, initially set to typically provide a 6% rate of return on the grounds that the technology was better known and that a higher rate might have resulted in it dominating programme costs [60]. It seems likely that the latter might have been the more significant – though only perhaps a partial – explanation. A 12% rate for solar thermal would tend to imply higher uptake, leading not only to domination but to higher overall costs arising from the mechanism (and higher RES-H deployment). It seems likely that the lower rate was set to limit these costs. The initial consultation document proposed that payments be made on a metered basis for large-scale applications and on a ‘deemed’ (or estimated) basis for small and medium-scale applications (see section 4.2.3 below). Checks would also be needed to ensure that the heat was being used gainfully and that the fuel used was genuinely renewable. Payments were proposed to be paid as an annual lump sum. [60] Issues with the Initial Proposal The use of deeming as a tool for estimating the appropriate heat needs of a building was intended to deal with a number of problems. Firstly, it was rooted in the desire to avoid subsidising excessive volumes of renewable heat in non-energy efficient homes. It attempted to do this by setting the subsidy at a level that would make 21 systems economic only where they were being installed in buildings with a reasonable level of energy efficiency – the scheme would only be available where a building met a minimum level of efficiency or where specific action was taken to improve home energy efficiency. This has remained a key element of the RHI as it has developed. The mechanism did not try to account for spatial factors. There is significant variation in energy usage on a geographical basis across the UK, for example, with much greater heating demand in Scotland and northern England than in the southern UK (e.g. heat accounts for 58% of all energy use in Scotland, compared with ~47% for the UK as a whole). This seems likely to significantly influence performance, and thus uptake, of some technologies; most notably solar thermal but potentially also with regard to biomass supply. Uptake in major population centres is also likely to vary significantly, with restrictions relating to air pollution from biomass, population density against available roof space and access to areas to install heat pumps all having potential to limit deployment in cities, particularly London. [27] Off-gas grid properties would be likely to see a much higher rate of return than the intended one. This might be argued to be both an advantage and a disadvantage. Such properties would seem to be the ideal ones to target since they would be likely to see new RES-H systems displace more fossil fuel emissions as a result of a direct switch to RES-H from oil, coal or electricity heating systems. However this may imply rates of return that might be regarded as excessive. 4.2.2 The Amended Proposal Following a change in Government in May 2010 introduction of the RHI was divided into two phases: (1) commercial and industrial and (2) domestic. Adoption of the 22 commercial phase was postponed until 30th September 2011, delayed again one day prior to that date, eventually introduced on 28th November 2011. Adoption for the second (or domestic) phase was delayed until October 2012, then to summer 2013 and final introduced in spring 2014 [62]. The delays have been criticised by industry representatives as undermining new markets by reducing the perceived security of the mechanism. The last minute announcement of the phase 1 delay in late 2011 was particularly criticised, as key technology providers and developers could be expected to have prepared for new demand only to have income streams delayed with little warning. This sudden and unexpected change should be seen in the context of a number of changes applied to renewable energy policy in the UK following the 2010 election. The incoming Coalition Government have sought to make savings in renewable expenditure, with cuts to the level of a number of RES-E tariffs and other instruments and substantive changes to the RHI as it was initially proposed. The RHI was initially left out of the agreement setting out Government plans, suggesting a low level of priority [63], and the continued delays to the mechanism tended to reinforce this. This combination of low prioritisation, the desire to reduce spending as part of a fiscal austerity programme and the potential difficulty of devising a novel mechanism in a workable form can be seen as the major contributors to the ongoing delays to the RHI. The ongoing delays in phase two of the RHI are perhaps more complex. The phase 2 delays led the Government to introduce a transitional alternative support mechanism, the Renewable Heat Premium Payment (RHPP), which provided a subsidy for the installation of new domestic systems via a one off payment. The aim was to reduce the cost of purchase of new systems and ensure that domestic demand was not totally disincentivised in the period up to the 23 introduction of phase two. The RHPP was initially limited to support for a maximum of 25,000 systems with a budget of £12m made available from August 2011 to March 2012, though this was underspent by £4.5m. The delays to the domestic RHI meant the RHPP was extended to March 2013, with additional expenditure of £7m and again until March 31st 2014 [64] with the additional total of approximately £12m. RHPP Payments are specifically linked to the recipient making data on energy output from installed systems available to DECC for aggregation, which will inform further policy development. This codicil can be regarded as potentially offering substantial benefit in an area where little operational data is available and can be regarded as an example of good practice for future policy design [61]. (The need to gather good data is further recognised with domestic RHI payments for those who install appropriate metering technology of £230 per year heat pumps and £200 per year for biomass boilers. [62]) The RHPP had limited availability for most technologies, and all systems supported had to be Microgeneration Certification System (MCS) approved to be eligible. Any solar thermal system installed on a domestic dwelling in the 2012-13 period was eligible for up to £300. Other technologies had to be installed in off-gas grid properties to qualify and could receive the following: Air source heat pump, £850; ground source heat pump, £1250; biomass boiler, £950. The 2013 extension of the RHPP increased this to £2,300 for ground source heat pumps, £2,000 for biomass boilers, £1300 for air source heat pumps and £600 for solar thermal systems. [65] The final tariff rates for RHI phase 1 (non-domestic) were set to allow a typical rate of return of 12% (with the exception of solar thermal to limit its domination of funding). The solar thermal tariff is instead set to be “roughly equivalent, in terms of financial 24 support per unit of energy output, to the level allocated to what is currently considered to be the marginal cost effective technology required to deliver the UK’s 15% renewable target, offshore wind.” [61] This figure appears to have been selected on a somewhat arbitrary basis; and no explanation has been forthcoming as to why this figure is meaningful in meeting the specific needs of solar thermal or as regards achieving a particular overall target. The phase 2 (domestic) tariff is set based on an estimated typical rate of return of 7.5%. [66] 4.2.3 Metering and Measurement The RHI aims to provide a subsidy to RES-H based on generated output. The RHI as originally proposed assessed the output of RES-H qualifying for subsidy on two bases. Output from sufficiently large installations (i.e. were the costs would not be too great a burden) would be metered while in smaller installations output would be ‘deemed’. ‘Deeming’ was to pay out against the estimated ‘reasonable heat requirement (or heat load) that the installation is intended to serve’ [60]. Phase 1 of the RHI in its applied does not feature any ‘deeming’ and all technologies need to be metered to qualify for payment. Payments made under phase two are on a ‘deemed’ basis, as detailed below. 4.2.4 Levels of Support within the RHI The technologies eligible for RHI support all qualify under the 2009 EU Renewables Directive, emphasising compliance with the Directive as the focus of UK RE policy. The tariffs are calculated to compensate only for the additional cost of renewable heat. That is, they do not compensate for the “full cost either of the renewable heat equipment or any fuel used by the renewable heat equipment, but only for the 25 additional cost of such equipment and fuel above that of the fossil fuel alternative” [61]. Payments for eligible technologies within the non-domestic RHI are made on a quarterly basis and extend over a twenty year period. Payments are linked to inflation (measured as UK Retail Price Indices) in order to remove inflationary risk for investors and as a result tariffs for both existing and new developers change annually. The levels of support currently available within the non-domestic part of the RHI are shown in table 1. Since the start of the non-domestic scheme the tariffs have been updated several times including a reduction in the tariff for small and medium biomass, an increase in large biomass, GSHP and solar thermal tariffs and new tariffs for Air Source Heat Pumps (air to water systems), biogas combustion, biomass CHP and deep geothermal. Tariff Name Eligible Technology Small commercial biomass Medium commercial Biomass (accredited on or after 1 July 2013) Eligible Sizes Less than 200 kWth Solid biomass including solid biomass contained in waste 200 kWth and above & less than 1MWth Large commercial Biomass 1MWth and above 26 Tariffs applicable from 01/07/2014 (kWh) Tier 8.4 Tier 1 2.2 Tier 2 5.1 Tier 1 2.2 Tier 2 2 (accredited on or after 21 January 2013) Solid biomass CHP systems (commissioned on or after 4 December 2013) Solid biomass CHP systems all capacities Ground-source heat pumps Ground-source heat pumps & Water Source heat pumps Deep geothermal 8.7 Tier 1 2.6 Tier 2 all capacities (accredited on and after 21 January 2013) Air source heat pumps 4.1 Air source heat pumps all capacities 2.5 Deep geothermal all capacities 5 Solar collectors Less than 200 kWth 10 Biomethane all capacities 7.5 Less than 200 kWth 7.5 200 kWth and above & less than 600kWth 5.9 600kWth and above 2.2 All solar collectors (accredited on or after 21 January 2013) Biomethane injection Small Biogas combustion Medium Biogas combustion Biogas combustion Large Biogas combustion 27 Table 1: Levels of support within Phase 1 (non-domestic) Renewable Heat Incentive at of 11/09/14 [67] Levels of support and technologies eligible under phase 2 of the RHI are shown in table 2. Payments for domestic systems will be made on a quarterly basis and an installation will receive them for seven years, though they are intended to be reflective of the costs of support over a twenty year period. Technology Tariff (p/kWh) Air source heat pumps 7.3 Biomass-only boilers and biomass pellet stoves with back boilers 12.2 Ground (and water) source heat pumps 18.8 Solar thermal panels (Flat plate and evacuated tube for hot water only) 19.2 Table 2: Levels of support within Phase 2 (domestic) Renewable Heat Incentive [62] Deeming To reduce the complexity of the scheme for domestic participants, encourage efficient energy consumption and minimise administration costs, phase 2 of the RHI does not require heat metering equipment to be installed. Instead domestic RHI payments are based on a ‘deemed’ calculation which estimates a property’s expected annual heat usage. For biomass and heat pump installations heat use is based on the properties Energy Performance Certificate (EPC), which is a prerequisite of applying for the domestic RHI. Multiplying this deemed figure by the published technology tariff rate determines the level of payments. Where a heat pump is installed, the heat use figure is to be combined with the heat pump’s expected efficiency to estimate total renewable heat generated. The deemed figure for solar thermal will be the estimated contribution of the system to a property’s hot 28 water demand (in kWh), calculated during the MCS approved installation process. [62] Properties with a back-up heating system (such as an oil boiler) or properties that are a second home are required to install heat metering. In addition, domestic householders who have installed a wood pellet-fuelled biomass boiler or a heat pump can also volunteer to install heat monitoring and metering equipment and obtain a further annual financial incentive of £200 and £230 respectively. Despite this Ofgem highlight that there are currently very few companies offering heat metering and monitoring services with the hope being that the market will grow as the domestic scheme progresses [68]. Compliance Eligible technologies access payments by registering with Ofgem, providing proof of installation and then providing an annual update to confirm continuing eligibility. Presented evidence must include details of the installing company, date of installation and a serial number. Additional evidence might include receipts or invoices for the installation, a commissioning certificate and/or report or a photograph of the installation showing the serial number. Burden of Payment The Government figures for the total cost of the RHI as it is currently planned vary from £4.8bn to £18.6bn, with a best estimate of £14bn over the projected thirty year lifespan of the RHI. Phase 2 is estimated to cost from £2.41bn to £6.16bn [66]. The major variance is likely to stem from differences in energy prices, with high extant energy prices likely to drive more consumers to switch to RES-H, creating more demand for subsidy. [66] 29 The Labour Government in power until May 2010 had intended the cost to be met from a premium on energy consumers per unit of general energy consumption, paid via energy bills, as is typical for UK RES-E support. The Coalition Government however has decided costs will be met directly from the public purse. It can be assumed this is to avoid additional costs on energy bills leading to political criticism. While this is at odds with the polluter pays principle, it is possible that it will mean fewer political barriers to the adoption and long-term stability of the RHI. The UK has political groups who protest against the tax burden in general but this seems less likely to be a significant barrier to the RHI. The Government also gave consideration to the introduction of a cap on the total spend allowed within the RHI and briefly introduced a cap whilst in the process of designing a longer term budget management system for the RHI. While there is an obvious political attraction to limiting the budget should demand prove unexpectedly high this does open the risk of investors being discouraged by the possibility of tariffs being cut unexpectedly at short notice when a fixed figure was achieved. Instead of risking this kind of cut off the Government ramped up the criteria for degression from the original proposals. [69,70] Price Reduction: Degression It is increasingly common to include degression mechanisms in tariff-style instruments which reduce subsidy over time to try to reflect reductions in the cost of technologies; a process which the UK government and others regard as good practice [71,20]. This was additionally needed as concerns the RHI because the scheme is funded directly by DECC which itself has a pre-determined annual budget. The latter is somewhat unusual as regards tariff-type support. The desire to control 30 spend is an understandable one and an unfettered tariff mechanism opens up the possibility of open ended costs, which is politically undesirable. Indeed, this contributed significantly to the selection of the quota-style RO (and rejection of a tariff) for large-scale RES-E in 2002 [48]). In the case of the RHI, the scheme is monitored on a quarterly basis and if predetermined levels of deployment are reached tariffs are reduced, the amount of this reduction being made clear as far ahead as possible to allow developmental planning to be as informed as possible [9,10]. Reductions will apply only to new applications. Degression ‘triggers’ apply across the RHI as a whole as well to individual technologies however a particular technology will only have its tariff reduced if the total scheme spending has reached a certain level. If the scheme’s total budget is exceeded all technologies will have their tariff levels reduced however if specific technologies are overspending these can have their tariffs reduced even if the overall scheme is not overspending. The level of reduction can vary depending on whether previous degressions have reduced deployment levels as well as depending on the overall scheme spending. Although complex, it is possible to assess the likelihood of degression happening and Government release monthly deployment data [72]. The initial trigger for individual technologies was set at 150% of the desired level for that technology however that has since been reduced to 120%. [73] The tariffs introduced in phase 1 were reviewed in 2013 – earlier than expected – with a view to raising the tariffs for large-scale biomass, ground source heat pumps and solar thermal systems for non-domestic premises. This reflected projections which suggested that these technologies had failed to be sufficiently stimulated by 31 the RHI to deliver the levels expected at the adoption of the mechanism [74]. Phase 2 of the RHI will be reviewed in 2015 and 2017, with any changes in the respective following year. The Government reserves the right to carry out reviews more quickly if necessary. This proposed timeline of relatively rapid reviews can perhaps be traced to the experience with the reduction in the costs and increase in demand for PV and associated tariff payments in recent years, which led to unexpectedly high costs from small-scale RES-E following the introduction of the Feed-In Tariff in 2010. The Government has recently carried out an emergency tariff review of the biomethane support level amid concerns that large projects were likely to be over-compensated [75]. The Government has substantially reduced RES-E subsidy tariffs to avoid excessive payments and ensure taxpayer value for money. While degression is supposed to address this, it only approximates of ‘real-world’ cost reductions and has struggled to keep up. The Government intends to avoid a similar situation with the RES-H technologies should demand exceed projections. Reviews might also offer the opportunity to raise support where technologies are not responsive to initial levels of subsidy or to introduce higher qualifying standards for the operational performance characteristics of eligible technologies (for example, heat pumps), though it is debatable whether there would be sufficient political support for this in the current climate. [20] 5 RHI performance to date Initially the rate of installation under phase 1 of the RHI was slow, with a large number of early applications refused due to confusion regarding the application 32 process and metering requirements. More recently installations have been steadily increasing, as illustrated in figure 2, with biomass installations dominant, representing 93.9% of installations and 98.8% of installed capacity up to July 2014. This suggests the dominance of biomass combustion in renewable heat has increased since the launch of the RHI as biomass combustion accounted for 85% of renewable heat generated in the UK in 2012. [2,78] Prior to the launch of the RHI, DECC’s illustrative scenario suggested that biomass systems would account for 49% of overall RHI installations by 2020 [76]. While significant growth of more novel technologies (such as heat pumps) is more likely to occur closer to 2020, RHI accreditations of both heat pumps and solar thermal systems have been increasing steadily since the start of the RHI. However these increases are from a very low base and these technologies currently represent a small proportion of total renewable heat capacity. The recent changes to the biomass tariffs may address the dominance of biomass boilers somewhat, however it remains to be seen if the current tariffs incentivise significant uptake of heat pumps and other emerging technologies. The complexity of the scheme at installation level is also considered as a potential barrier to the growth of more innovative technologies such as ground source heat pumps [77]. The UK Government estimates RES-H generated in the UK increased from 16.4TWh in 2012 to 20.1TWh in 2013, representing a growth rate of 22.6%. This compares with an average annual growth rate of nearly 17% from 2006 to 2012 suggesting there has been a small but significant increase since the start of the RHI [2]. An average annual growth of 19% or above is required from 2012 – 2020 in order for the UK to meet the 12% RES-H target by 2020. 33 Figure 2: Non-domestic RHI applications and accreditations 4,500 4,000 Number of accreditations 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Small solid biomass boiler (< 200 kW) Medium solid biomass boiler (200-1000 kW) Large solid biomass boiler (> 1000 kW) Solar thermal (< 200 kW) Source: DECC (2014) RHI and RHPP deployment data: July 2014 [78] While it is still rather early to evaluate progress regarding the domestic scheme as of July 2014 there had been 7,418 applications and 4,961 accredited installations. While this is positive for such as new scheme the vast majority (86%) of applications relate to legacy installations which were in place before the scheme launched [78]. The coming months will reveal the impact of the RHI on the domestic sector, however there are some concerns that uptake will not meet expectations due to a high number of heat pumps and solar thermal installations performing below estimates [79]. In addition, only the building owner can currently claim the domestic RHI, which excludes the potential of tenants or other third parties (such as Energy 34 Service Companies) funding and installing renewable heat technologies in order to claim the RHI. Throughout the design stages of the RHI, concerns have been raised about the potential to ‘game’ the scheme and receive income for heat which has been produced unnecessarily or not produced at all. This results from the fact that unlike electricity feed in tariffs which are required to feed-in to a network, in many RES-H systems, there is no grid for the renewable heat to feed into. In phase 2 (domestic) this issue has been overcome by the use of deeming heat demand which takes into account the house’s energy efficiency and its local weather rather than metering [80]. In phase 1 (non-domestic), as mentioned previously, all heat is metered which means than actual heat generation is known and there is also the financial incentive to not waste heat as all heat has an intrinsic value. Ofgem guidance for the scheme also explains that based on the regulations, only heat used for eligible purposes of space heating, water heating and carrying out processes can receive RHI payments and if any participant knowingly provides incorrect information in order to defraud the scheme, they will be referred to the relevant authorities for potential prosecution. This is supported by an RHI audit and compliance team [28]. 6 Concluding Remarks The UK’s 2009 adoption of a target of 15% of all energy to come from renewables by 2020 caused the then Government to realise the need for large-scale deployment of RES-H alongside other renewable technologies. A process to identify policy options for enhanced financial support of RES-H was initiated to select, design and adopt a 35 mechanism with the potential to offer significant financial support efficiencies. The adoption of the RHI has placed the UK at the forefront of efforts as regards RES-H support. Devising the introduction of an effective instrument has undoubtedly been a difficult task and may have warranted some delay, particularly as there was little practical experience of tariff based heat support mechanisms in either the UK or internationally. However the repeated delays in the adoption of the domestic phase of the RHI meant the policy took over five years to be adopted. While the transitional RHPP mechanism provided some funding to domestic system deployment it has generally failed to use its full budget, and the high degree of uncertainty has undermined the creation of supply chains. This has significantly undermined the emergence of a UK RES-H industry and may mean that cost reductions that could have been achieved have been lost or delayed, with implications for sectoral growth and the meeting of the 2020 RE targets. The creation of uncertainty in this manner is directly at odds with the lessons learned from the experience in growing RES-E; evidence suggests it tends to lead to higher costs and to reduced deployment rates [57]. Abu-Bakar et al [81] specifically link the uncertainty over the RHI to a drop in the number of installations of solar thermal systems in 2011. Other initiatives to facilitate the regulatory, societal and other changes which will make high levels of penetration possible or cheaper may still be required. Alongside the Feed-in Tariff adopted in April 2010, and the ‘Contract for Difference’ mechanism replacing the RO from 2014 onwards, the RHI represents a significant break with the UK’s historical preference for quota based mechanisms [50]. It might be argued that this exemplifies a learning process in practice, with the UK 36 Government coming to acknowledge the increasing body of evidence which undermines the economic performance of its previously preferred quota-style mechanism. Further elements of the learning process are reflected in the stages of consideration as to the selection of a heat support mechanism and the change is a notable one in the UK context, and potentially in the wider context. However, the delays to the RHI’s adoption suggest RES-H has a low priority, though poor timing as regards the UK’s austerity programme has not helped. It might also be argued that there has been a loss of the learning concerning renewable policy under the previous government, though this is something that would need to be investigated further. Perhaps the most interesting element of the UK experience from a policy perspective is the effort to design a new form of support mechanism to support RES-H. The RES-E tariff typically sees a fixed sum paid per unit of energy generated. Applying a tariff to heat carries more complexity; the UK Government is aware of this and has investigated how this might be addressed. The generic problems of applying a bonus or tariff mechanism to RES-H are discussed elsewhere [8,9,10]. Particularly relevant issues include: Minimisation of the costs of efficiently providing subsidy to large numbers of separate small-scale generators. Care must be taken to identify the relative transactional and administrative costs of mechanisms which are to be applied to support large numbers of installations. This links to the next point: The basis for any process of consolidation of generated output to minimise costs and at the same time to ensure accurate linking of generator output to subsidy availability; 37 The application of standards to try to ensure subsidy does not lead to installation of low quality equipment. It can be assumed that this will link into the provisions for standardisation relating to micro-generation in the current draft of the new renewables directive. The UK is already addressing this through the MCS. The encouragement of RES-H support which defers to improved energy efficiency. That is, policy which acts to improve energy efficiency as a first resort on the grounds of reduced cost to the taxpayer/consumer and on maximising reduction in carbon emissions against public investment. The RHI represents a novel approach to modifying and applying a mechanism proven to be effective in supporting RES-E to the different challenges of supporting RES-H [10]. The struggle to apply the estimated methodology of deeming represented an experimental approach to the problems arising from the challenges of dealing with approximated heat demand while protecting public funds. The UK’s 2009 Renewable Energy Strategy [6] suggested that the Government would take additional action to identify and address other barriers to RES-H, identification of barriers was set out in 2008 but specific strategies for dealing with them are not apparent [54,82]. Planning issues have been addressed to some extent for solar thermal, though more could be done at the domestic scale to ensure growth of installations is less hindered than previously. Given the rapidity with which RES-H needs to be expanded in the UK if there is to be any chance of hitting its RES-H target (and the overall 15% RES target), there is a real need to get RES-H policy right and to do so early – five years of delay has not served this well. There are already limits on the upper rate of expansion due to limits on natural growth such as 38 equipment availability, rapidity of scale up, and availability of trained personnel. Delaying policy instruments further limits the growth rate for expansion of the RES-H technology supply chain and knowledge base and could seriously undermine the long term ability to expand deployment to hit a very ambitious target. The prevarication of the Government in declining to earlier commitment to the RHI threatens to undermine efforts in both the short and long-term. The repeated delays in introducing the RHI, alongside continuous reviews and tariff reductions for energy generation in the UK threaten to undermine confidence in the UK RES-H sector amongst both consumers and investors by creating high levels of policy uncertainty. There is a clear need to build on further elements of the learning process and root expansion in the stable growth conditions that derive from support instruments which are sufficiently powerful to produce favourable economics for RES-H systems, but which are also predictable in their application. This is a key lesson of the RES-E experience and one that has not so far been applied to UK RES-H policy. This is a lesson that needs to be heeded to better serve UK RES-H efforts and to effectively stimulate RES-H elsewhere. Since the UK’s introduction of the RHI in 2011, Italy and Northern Ireland have also announced that they would introduce similar policies. Italy’s ‘Conto Termico’ supports small-scale RES-H, including solar thermal, heat pumps and biomass as well as energy efficiency measures [83,84]. This is supplemented by loans and by tax reductions for systems retrofitted into buildings. 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