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Glossary
Terrorism Disadvantage (N, JV, & V Only)
Terrorism Disadvantage ....................................................................................................................................... 1
Glossary ............................................................................................................................................................... 2
Terrorism Disadvantage (1NC) (1/3) ................................................................................................................... 3
Uniqueness
Surveillance increasing now ............................................................................................................................ 6
Links/Internal Links
Surveillance prevents terrorist plots................................................................................................................. 7
Surveillance is necessary for timely response ............................................................................................... 10
Surveillance allows meta-data intelligence .................................................................................................... 11
Surveillance creates bulk intelligence ............................................................................................................ 12
Surveillance uncovers terrorist financing ...................................................................................................... 13
Financing is key to terrorist efforts ................................................................................................................ 16
Surveillance solves Al Qaeda sleeper cells .................................................................................................... 17
Answer to: Surveillance fails at solving a terrorist attack ............................................................................. 18
Extension: Surveillance is necessary for stopping a terrorist attack .............................................................. 20
Immigration Surveillance prevents terrorism ................................................................................................ 21
NSA Reform makes finding terrorists harder ................................................................................................ 24
Impacts
Impact Extensions - Terrorism....................................................................................................................... 26
Answer to: Terrorist attack is unlikely........................................................................................................... 28
Answer to: Terrorists aren’t a threat .............................................................................................................. 29
Answers to: ISIS is not a Threat .................................................................................................................... 30
Al Qaeda is a threat ........................................................................................................................................ 31
AQAP is a threat ............................................................................................................................................ 32
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Glossary
Glossary
NSA – The National Security Agency – this is a government agency that is responsible for monitoring,
collection, and processing of information for foreign intelligence. The NSA was one of the agencies exposed
by Edward Snowden in 2013 as an agency conducting surveillance on domestic (and foreign) populations for
counter-terror efforts
SIGINT – Signal intelligence – this is a type of intelligence that is largely collected by the NSA. SIGINT is
the process of collecting telecommunication data for counter-intelligence purposes
Bulk Surveillance – this is the collection of massive amounts of telecommunication information that isn’t all
individual monitored, but bits and pieces are collected and pieced together by computer systems to monitor
certain activity
AUMF – The Authorization for Use of Military Force – this is a piece of legislation signed by congress
after the attacks of 9/11 and authorizes the use of United States Armed Forces against those responsible for
the attacks on September 11, 2001. The authorization granted the President the authority to use all "necessary
and appropriate force" against those whom he determined "planned, authorized, committed or aided" the
September 11th attacks, or who harbored said persons or groups.
Al Qaeda – Al Qaeda is one of the largest terrorist networks in the world that is a radical fundamentalist
group often held responsible for the 9/11 attacks. They have networks operating all across the globe in various
countries in Africa, Europe and Central Asia.
AQAP – Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula – it is considered one of Al Qaeda’s most active branches and
operates primarily in Yemen and Saudi Arabia
ISIS – The Islamic State of Iraq – this is an extremist terrorist organization that occupies territory in Syria
and Iraq. While many folks that subscribe to Islam denounce the activities of ISIS, they are held responsible
for war crimes, genocide, and massive ethnic cleansing in the region and are one of the most active terrorist
groups attempting to retaliate against the United States
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Uniqueness
Terrorism Disadvantage (1NC) (N/JV/V Only) (1/3)
1. Domestic surveillance activities are expanding with no expectation to decline
Dahl, Assistant Professor at Nataval Postgraduate School, 2011
(Erik. “Domestic Intelligence Today: More Security but Less Liberty?.” Homeland Security
Affairs 7, 10 Years After: The 9/11 Essays (September 2011). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/67
Unless the threat situation changes dramatically, we
are not likely to see a new American domestic intelligence agency
anytime soon. In the place of an “American MI-5,” however, a huge and expensive domestic intelligence
system has been constructed. This system has thus far succeeded in keeping America safer than most
experts would have predicted ten years ago, but it has also reduced civil liberties in ways that many Americans fail to understand. Precisely
because it was unplanned and is decentralized, this domestic intelligence system has not received the oversight it deserves. In the long run, American liberty as well
as
security will gain from a fuller discussion of the benefits and risks of homeland security intelligence.
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Uniqueness
Terrorism Disadvantage (1NC) (2/3)
2. Curtailing domestic surveillance prevents intelligence agencies from stopping a terrorist
attack – this is empirically true
Inserra, Research Associate from the Heritage Foundation, 2015
("68th Terrorist Plot Calls for Major Counterterrorism Reforms,"
www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/05/68th-terrorist-plot-calls-for-major-counterterrorism-reforms
This 68th Islamist terrorist plot or attack is the 57th homegrown terrorist attack or plot and the 10th
targeting a mass gathering, the third most common target. The attack also comes as part of a recent wave of attacks
and plots, as this is the sixth Islamist terrorist plot or attack in 2015. All of the plots and attacks this
year have been perpetrated by individuals who claim to support the Islamic State to varying degrees. The FBI has stated that
Simpson wanted to commit jihad with ISIS, and press reports indicate that he may have been in secret communications with ISIS members.[6]
Regardless, with these attacks and the increasing numbers of individuals in the U.S. seeking to support
or join ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates, the U.S. is currently facing what is arguably the most concentrated
period of terrorist activity in the homeland since 9/11. Director James Comey of the FBI has recent warned that
“hundreds, maybe thousands” of individuals across the U.S. are being directly solicited by ISIS and
urged to attack. Other senior officials, including Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and the
director of the National Counterterrorism Center Nicholas Rasmussen have also noted the increasing threat of terrorism here at home.[7]
Strengthening the Counterterrorism Enterprise
In light of these warnings, the U.S. cannot be passive. Heritage has recommended numerous counterterrorism policies for Congress to
address, including:
Streamlining U.S. fusion centers. Congress should limit fusion centers to the approximately 30 areas with the greatest level of risk as identified by the Urban Area
Security Initiative (UASI). Some exceptions might exist, such as certain fusion centers that are leading cybersecurity or other important topical efforts. The
remaining centers should then be fully funded and resourced by UASI.
Pushing the FBI toward being more effectively driven by intelligence. While the FBI has made highlevel changes to its mission and organizational structure, the bureau is still working to integrate
intelligence and law enforcement activities. This will require overcoming cultural barriers and
providing FBI intelligence personnel with resources, opportunities, and the stature they need to become
a more effective and integral part of the FBI.
Ensuring that the FBI shares information more readily and regularly with state and local law enforcement and treats state and local partners as critical actors in the
fight against terrorism. State, local, and private-sector partners must send and receive timely information from the FBI. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
should play a role in supporting these partners’ efforts by acting as a source or conduit for information to partners and coordinating information sharing between the
FBI and its partners.
Designating an office in DHS to coordinate countering violent extremism (CVE) efforts. CVE efforts are spread across all levels of government and society. DHS is
uniquely situated to lead the federal government’s efforts to empower local partners. Currently, DHS’s CVE working group coordinates efforts across DHS
components, but a more substantial office will be necessary to manage this broader task.
Supporting state, local, and civil society partners. Congress and the Administration should not lose sight of the fact that all of the federal government’s efforts must
be focused on empowering local partners. The federal government is not the tip of the spear for CVE efforts; it exists to support local partners who are in the best
position to recognize and counter radicalization in their own communities.
Maintaining essential counterterrorism tools. Support for important investigative tools is essential to
maintaining the security of the U.S. and combating terrorist threats. Legitimate government surveillance
programs are also a vital component of U.S. national security and should be allowed to continue. The need
for effective counterterrorism operations, however, does not relieve the government of its obligation to follow the law and respect individual privacy and liberty. In
the American system, the government must do both equally well.
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Uniqueness
Terrorism Disadvantage (1NC) (3/3)
3. Another terrorist attack could lead to a downward spiral of world destruction
LIFTON '05
(Robert Jay, visiting prof of psychiatry @ Harvard Med Schl, "In the Lord's Hands," Annual Editions: Violence & Terrorism 05/06, p. 151)
Woodward ends his book on Bush on a mystical note. He describes a scene in which twenty-five men from different Special Forces
and CIA tams gather at a desolate site in Afghanistan, where they have arranged a pile of rocks as a tombstone over a buried piece of the demolished World Trade
Center. One of the men leads a prayer as others kneel, consecrating the spot as a memorial to the dead of September 11, and then declares: "We
will export
death and violence to the four corners of the earth in defense of our great nation." Woodward presents
the scene as depicting the determination of an aggrieved nation to strike back. But it also suggests a
sequence leading from memorialization to self-defense to apocalyptic militarism.
Such fundamentalist and apocalyptic tendencies by no means determine all of American policy,
which can alternate with inclinations toward pragmatic restraint. But impulses toward regeneration
through apocalyptic violence are an ever-present danger.
an ongoing dynamic in
which the American apocalyptic interacts, almost to the point of collusion, with the Islamist apocalyptic, each
intensifying the other in an escalating process that has in it the potential seeds of world destruction.
The Bush administration should by no means be seen as a mirror image of bin Laden or Islamism. Rather it is part of
We are capable of extricating ourselves from this dynamic, of more measured approaches and more humane applications of our considerable power and influence
in the world.
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Surveillance increasing now
(__)
(__) FBI terrorism surveillance activities are increasing now and effective in the status quo
Dahl, Assistant Professor at Nataval Postgraduate School, 2011
Erik. “Domestic Intelligence Today: More Security but Less Liberty?.” Homeland Security Affairs 7, 10
Years After: The 9/11 Essays (September 2011). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/67
The FBI is expanding its domestic intelligence and surveillance operations in other ways, as well. It is
changing its own internal rules to give its agents more leeway to conduct investigations and
surveillance, such as by searching databases or sorting through a person’s trash.35 And it appears to be
making greater use of undercover informants in intelligence investigations, leading in some cases to
successful arrests and prosecutions, but in others to controversy.36
(__) Newest government reports show surveillance is increasing by the government and is
effective
Gilens, ACLU Speech, Privacy and Technology Project, 2012
(Naomi, ACLU, "New Justice Department Documents Show Huge Increase in Warrantless Electronic
Surveillance," https://www.aclu.org/blog/new-justice-department-documents-show-huge-increasewarrantless-electronic-surveillance
Justice Department documents released today by the ACLU reveal that federal law enforcement
agencies are increasingly monitoring Americans’ electronic communications, and doing so without
warrants, sufficient oversight, or meaningful accountability. The documents, handed over by the
government only after months of litigation, are the attorney general’s 2010 and 2011 reports on the use of
“pen register” and “trap and trace” surveillance powers. The reports show a dramatic increase in the use of
these surveillance tools, which are used to gather information about telephone, email, and other
Internet communications. The revelations underscore the importance of regulating and overseeing the
government’s surveillance power. (Our original Freedom of Information Act request and our legal
complaint are online.)
(__) Data shows electronic surveillance is on the rise
Gilens, ACLU Speech, Privacy and Technology Project, 2012
(Naomi, ACLU, "New Justice Department Documents Show Huge Increase in Warrantless Electronic
Surveillance," https://www.aclu.org/blog/new-justice-department-documents-show-huge-increasewarrantless-electronic-surveillance
Electronic Surveillance Is Sharply on the Rise The reports that we received document an enormous
increase in the Justice Department’s use of pen register and trap and trace surveillance. As the chart
below shows, between 2009 and 2011 the combined number of original orders for pen registers and trap
and trace devices used to spy on phones increased by 60%, from 23,535 in 2009 to 37,616 in 2011.
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Links
Surveillance prevents terrorist plots
(__)
(__) Domestic surveillance solves terrorist plots – since 9/11, the NSA program has prevent 50
homeland threats
New York Times, 2013
(Charlie Savage, "N.S.A. Chief Says Surveillance Has Stopped Dozens of Plots,"
www.nytimes.com/2013/06/19/us/politics/nsa-chief-says-surveillance-has-stopped-dozens-ofplots.html?_r=0)
WASHINGTON — Top national security officials on Tuesday promoted two newly declassified
examples of what they portrayed as “potential terrorist events” disrupted by government surveillance.
The cases were made public as Congress and the Obama administration stepped up a campaign to
explain and defend programs unveiled by recent leaks from a former intelligence contractor.
One case involved a group of men in San Diego convicted of sending money to an extremist group in
Somalia. The other was presented as a nascent plan to bomb the New York Stock Exchange, although its
participants were not charged with any such plot. Both were described by Sean Joyce, deputy director of the
Federal Bureau of Investigation, at a rare public oversight hearing by the House Intelligence Committee.
At the same hearing, Gen. Keith B. Alexander, the head of the National Security Agency, said that
American surveillance had helped prevent “potential terrorist events over 50 times since 9/11,”
including at least 10 “homeland-based threats.” But he said that a vast majority of the others must remain
secret.
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Surveillance prevents terrorist plots
(__)
(__) Limiting surveillance prevents the government from accessing critical information to
prevent a terrorist attack on US soil
Bergen et al, Director of the National Security Program at the New America Foundation, 2014
(Peter, "DO NSA'S BULK SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS STOP TERRORISTS?,"
https://static.newamerica.org/attachments/1311-do-nsas-bulk-surveillance-programs-stopterrorists/IS_NSA_surveillance.pdf
June 5, 2013, the Guardian broke the first story in what would become a flood of revelations regarding
the extent and nature of the NSA’s surveillance programs. Facing an uproar over the threat such programs
posed to privacy, the Obama administration scrambled to defend them as legal and essential to U.S.
national security and counterterrorism. Two weeks after the first leaks by former NSA contractor Edward
Snowden were published, President Obama defended the NSA surveillance programs during a visit to
Berlin, saying: “We know of at least 50 threats that have been averted because of this information not
just in the United States, but, in some cases, threats here in Germany. So lives have been saved.” Gen.
Keith Alexander, the director of the NSA, testified before Congress that: “the information gathered from
these programs provided the U.S. government with critical leads to help prevent over 50 potential
terrorist events in more than 20 countries around the world.” Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), chairman of
the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said on the House floor in July that “54 times
[the NSA programs] stopped and thwarted terrorist attacks both here and in Europe – saving real
lives.”
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Surveillance prevents terrorist plots
(__)
(__) Domestic surveillance data mining capabilities prevents a terrorist attack before it is too
late
Yoo, Professor at University of California- Berkeley Law School, 2007
(John, "THE TERRORIST SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM AND THE CONSTITUTION," SSRN)
It seems that critics are mostly interested in blindly limiting the powers of the government, even as it
fights a tough war. They presume the American government to be acting in bad faith, and so all of its
activities must be treated with the highest possible level of suspicion. Meanwhile, data mining technology
and databases are exploding in the private sector.121 It would be ironic if al Qaeda and private
individuals were permitted greater legal access to new data technology than our own government,
especially in wartime. Overreaction and plain scare tactics killed TIA, a potentially valuable tool to
counter al Qaeda’s offensive within the United States.122 It made little sense to cut off TIA at the
research and development stage out of sheer anti-government paranoia. There was no chance to see what
computer technology could even do, no discussion of whether adequate safeguards for privacy could be
installed, and no opportunity to evaluate whether data mining would yield leads on terrorist activity that
would be worth any costs to privacy. No analysis could be done on the legal issues. Perhaps worst of all, we
could never explore the ways that computers could be used to protect privacy. Data mining scans many
perfectly innocent transactions and activities, but this in itself does not make the search illegal; even
searches of homes and businesses or wiretaps with warrants will encounter many items or
communications that are not linked to criminal activity.123 The understandable concern is that much
innocent activity will come under scrutiny by data (discussing the need for an attenuated probable cause
requirement in the national security context, because “intelligence officers will often not have a good
idea . . . what they are looking for”).. 21 mining, unless controlled in some way by a warrant
requirement.124 But if computers are doing the primary scanning, privacy might not be implicated
because no human eyes would ever have seen the data.125 Only when the computer programs highlight
individuals who fit parameters that reasonably suggest further study for terrorist links—say a young
man who has traveled from Ohio to Pakistan several times, has taken flight lessons in the U.S., has
received large deposits of cash wired into his account from abroad, and has purchased equipment that
could be used for bomb-making—would a human intelligence officer view the records
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Surveillance is necessary for timely response
(__)
(__) The plan prevents a swift and timely response to a terrorist attack – domestic surveillance
is key to act upon attacks on the US before it is too late
Yoo, Professor at University of California- Berkeley Law School, 2007
(John, "THE TERRORIST SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM AND THE CONSTITUTION," SSRN)
Yet, when Congress delegates broad authority to the President to defend the nation from attack, critics
demand that Congress list every power it wishes to authorize.192 While the threats to individual liberty
may be greater in this setting, it makes little sense to place Congress under a heavier burden to describe
every conceivable future contingency that might arise when we are fighting a war, perhaps the most
unpredictable and certainly most dangerous of human endeavors. Rather, we would expect and want
Congress to delegate power to that branch, Executive, which is best able to act with speed to combat
threats to our national security.193 War is too difficult to plan for with fixed, antecedent legislative
rules, and war also is better run by the executive, which is structurally designed to take quick, decisive
action. If the AUMF authorized the President to detain and kill the enemy,194 the ability to search for
them is necessarily included.
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Surveillance allows meta-data intelligence
(__)
(__) Domestic surveillance is necessary for the collection of meta-data. This data is critical to
stopping terrorist plots
Lewis, Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Fellow, 2014,
(James A. "Underestimating Risk in the Surveillance Debate,"
csis.org/files/publication/141209_Lewis_UnderestimatingRisk_Web.pdf)
NSA carried out two kinds of signals intelligence programs: bulk surveillance to support
counterterrorism and collection to support U.S. national security interests. The debate over surveillance
unhelpfully conflated the two programs. Domestic bulk collection for counterterrorism is politically
problematic, but assertions that a collection program is useless because it has not by itself prevented an
attack reflect unfamiliarity with intelligence. Intelligence does not work as it is portrayed in films—solitary
agents do not make startling discoveries that lead to dramatic, last-minute success. Success is the product of
the efforts of teams of dedicated individuals from many agencies, using many tools and techniques,
working together to assemble fragments of data from many sources into a coherent picture. In practice,
analysts must simultaneously explore many possible scenarios. A collection program contributes by not
only what it reveals, but also what it lets us reject as false. The Patriot Act Section 215 domestic bulk
telephony metadata program provided information that allowed analysts to rule out some scenarios and
suspects. The consensus view from interviews with current and former intelligence officials is that while
metadata collection is useful, it is the least useful of the collection programs available to the intelligence
community. If there was one surveillance program they had to give up, it would be 215, but this would
not come without an increase in risk. Restricting metadata collection will make it harder to identify
attacks and increase the time it takes to do this
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Surveillance creates bulk intelligence
(__)
(__) NSA surveillance use bulk collection as key piece to the intelligence puzzle
stopping terrorist plots
Lewis, Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Fellow, 2014,
(James A. "Underestimating Risk in the Surveillance Debate,"
csis.org/files/publication/141209_Lewis_UnderestimatingRisk_Web.pdf)
NSA carried out two kinds of signals intelligence programs: bulk surveillance to support
counterterrorism and collection to support U.S. national security interests. The debate over surveillance
unhelpfully conflated the two programs. Domestic bulk collection for counterterrorism is politically
problematic, but assertions that a collection program is useless because it has not by itself prevented an
attack reflect unfamiliarity with intelligence. Intelligence does not work as it is portrayed in films—solitary
agents do not make startling discoveries that lead to dramatic, last-minute success. Success is the product of
the efforts of teams of dedicated individuals from many agencies, using many tools and techniques,
working together to assemble fragments of data from many sources into a coherent picture. In practice,
analysts must simultaneously explore many possible scenarios. A collection program contributes by not
only what it reveals, but also what it lets us reject as false. The Patriot Act Section 215 domestic bulk
telephony metadata program provided information that allowed analysts to rule out some scenarios and
suspects. The consensus view from interviews with current and former intelligence officials is that while
metadata collection is useful, it is the least useful of the collection programs available to the intelligence
community. If there was one surveillance program they had to give up, it would be 215, but this would
not come without an increase in risk. Restricting metadata collection will make it harder to identify
attacks and increase the time it takes to do this
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Surveillance uncovers terrorist financing
(__)
(__) Domestic surveillance capabilities are key to find terrorist organizations and freeze their
assets
Lormel, Chief of Financial Crimes, FBI, 2002,
(Dennis, Testimony Before the House Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Oversight and
Investigations, www.fbi.gov/news/testimony/financing-patterns-associated-with-al-qaeda-and-global-terroristnetworks
As a participant on the National Security Council's Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC) on terrorist
financing, chaired by Treasury Department General Counsel David Aufhauser, the FRG continues to
function in a leadership role in the efforts to target Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) believed
to provide financial support to known Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) and other affiliated
terrorist cells. The FRG is currently actively involved in the coordination of twelve multi-jurisdictional NGO
investigations. In order to disrupt the terrorist financing channels, the FRG has coordinated these and
other FBI terrorist investigations with the terrorist designation and asset freezing efforts of the
Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and Operation Green Quest. These
efforts have resulted in the freezing of millions of dollars in foreign and U.S. bank accounts.
Specifically, the joint efforts targeting Al-Barakaat, the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and
Development, the Global Relief Foundation, and the Benevolence International Foundation have
resulted in the execution of numerous search warrants and the disruption of the fund-raising and
money remittance operations of these and other NGOs. Financial investigations of these entities have
revealed that approximately $200 million in contributions passed through these organizations each
year. The FRG will also coordinate with the Department of the Treasury in its other initiatives in order to help
ensure their success.
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Surveillance uncovers terrorist financing - extension
(__)
(__) Finance and money are the lifeblood to terrorist efforts – the plan prevents the
governments ability to dismantle terrorist groups
Lormel, Chief of Financial Crimes, FBI, 2002,
(Dennis, Testimony Before the House Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Oversight and
Investigations, www.fbi.gov/news/testimony/financing-patterns-associated-with-al-qaeda-and-global-terroristnetworks
Identifying, tracking, and dismantling the financial structure supporting terrorist groups is critical to
successfully dismantling the organization and preventing future terrorist attacks. As is the case in so
many types of criminal investigations, identifying and "following the money" plays a critical role in
identifying those involved in the criminal activity, establishing links among them, and developing
evidence of their involvement in the activity. In the early stages of the investigation into the events of
September 11, it was financial evidence that quickly established direct links among the hijackers of the
four flights and helped identify co-conspirators.
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Surveillance uncovers terrorist financing- extension
(__)
(__) Domestic surveillance is critical to terrorism financing
Yoo, Professor at University of California- Berkeley Law School, 2007
(John, "THE TERRORIST SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM AND THE CONSTITUTION," SSRN)
Data mining is the best hope for an innovative counter-terrorism strategy to detect and prevent future
al Qaeda attacks. Rather than hope an agent will one day penetrate al Qaeda’s inner circles—a dubious
possibility—or that we will successfully seal our vast borders from terrorists, data mining would allow
us to see patterns of activity that reveal the al Qaeda network’s activity before it can attack.92
Computerized pattern analysis could quickly reveal whether anyone linked to al Qaeda made large
purchases of chemicals or equipment that could be used for explosives or chemical weapons. We could
learn whether they traveled regularly to certain cities, and we could discover where they stayed and
who they called in those cities. As civil libertarians complain, almost all transactions of this nature—
calling, emailing, spending money, traveling—are innocent.93 We engage in them every day. That is
exactly why al Qaeda has trained its operatives to use them as tools to conceal their plots.94 Al Qaeda’s
leaders understand the difficulty in analyzing billions of transactions and interactions every day to
detect their cells, and they realize that western societies impose legal obstacles on government access to
such information.95 Civil libertarian critics don’t seem to have noticed that our government already employs
modest forms of data mining to track down criminals and terrorists. In response to drug cartels and organized
crime, our government has used simple data mining to track and analyze money flows for years.96
Banks and financial institutions provide records of financial transactions to the Department of the Treasury,
which searches the patterns for money laundering activity.97 While the great majority of the transactions
are legal, the information can piece together proof of criminal links after a conspiracy has been
stopped, or it can help indicate suspicious activity that demands further investigation.98 Analyzing
money flows has also proven to be an important tool in detecting and breaking up terrorist networks.99
If civil libertarians are right, consumers would also have an absolute right to privacy over their
banking transactions and our government would lose this valuable, commonsense tool to combat crime,
as well as terrorism. Two examples illustrate this point: (1) the NSA’s use of phone records and (2) the
Total Information Awareness program.
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Financing is key to terrorist efforts
(__)
(__) Financing is the key to terrorist efforts to launch an attack on US soil
Lormel, Chief of Financial Crimes, FBI, 2002,
(Dennis, Testimony Before the House Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Oversight and
Investigations, www.fbi.gov/news/testimony/financing-patterns-associated-with-al-qaeda-and-global-terroristnetworks
Cutting off the financial lifeblood of individuals and organizations responsible for acts of terrorism is a
vital step in dismantling the organization and preventing future terrorist acts. The FBI is leading law
enforcement efforts to accomplish this mission. The USA PATRIOT Act has provided law enforcement
with powerful new tools to assist in accomplishing this mission. The FBI welcomes the opportunity to
work with this Subcommittee and others to ensure that law enforcement efforts can be the most
effective. I would welcome any questions you may have at this time. Thank you.
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Surveillance solves Al Qaeda sleeper cells
(__)
(__) Domestic Surveillance is key to combat necessary to track and thwart Al Qaeda sleeper
cells
Yoo, Professor at University of California- Berkeley Law School, 2007
(John, "THE TERRORIST SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM AND THE CONSTITUTION," SSRN)
These privacy concerns are exaggerated. The Supreme Court has found that such information does not
receive Fourth Amendment protection because the consumer has already voluntarily turned over the
information to a third party.108 It is not covered by FISA because no electronic interception or
surveillance of the calls has occurred.109 Meanwhile, the data is potentially of enormous use in
frustrating al Qaeda plots. If our agents are pointed to members of an al Qaeda sleeper cell by a U.S.
phone number found in a captured al Qaeda leader’s cell phone, call pattern analysis would allow the
NSA to determine the extent of the network and its activities.110 It could track the sleeper cell as it
periodically changed phone numbers.111 This could give a quick, initial database-generated glimpse of
the possible size and activity level of the cell in an environment where time is of the essence
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Answer to: Surveillance fails at solving a terrorist attack
(__)
(__) Surveillance capabilities are an integral part to preventing a terrorist attack – it’s the
foundation of all other counter-terror capabilities
The Guardian, May 10, 2015
("Intelligence leaders cite Texas attack before deadline on NSA surveillance," www.theguardian.com/usnews/2015/may/10/nsa-surveillance-domestic-texas-isis
“This threat is like finding a needle in a haystack and it’s going to get worse, not better,” McCaul
added. “I think the threat environment today is one of the highest I have ever seen.” Controversial NSA
powers to monitor suspicious communication by collecting all American phone records are due to
expire at the end of the month, a circumstance that was dramatically complicated by a US appeal court
judgment on Thursday ruling the practice first revealed by Edward Snowden to be unlawful. A number of
lawmakers warned on Sunday the Garland attack showed why it was essential Congress face down
opposition to the so-called “bulk collection” programme and reauthorise the original Patriot Act
provision, despite Thursday’s legal challenge. “I hope that the reality of the situation, the reality of the
threats we face, will actually play a great part in terms of exactly how Congress responds,” Senate
homeland security chairman Ron Johnson told CNN. “Our first line of defence is an effective intelligencegathering capability,” the Wisconsin Republican added. “I think the demagoguery and the revelations of
Edward Snowden have done a great deal of harm to our ability to gather that information.” Richard
Burr, Republican chair of the Senate intelligence committee, also insisted the Patriot Act provision should be
reauthorised rather than amended when it expires on 1 June. “It’s very effective at keeping America safe,”
he told ABC, claiming the alternative USA Freedom Act, which would rely on phone companies to keep
records rather than the NSA, “turns us back to pre-9/11” days.
18
Terrorism Disadvantage (N, JV, & V Only)
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Links
Answer to: Surveillance fails at solving a terrorist attack
(__)
(__) The utility of domestic surveillance in combatting terrorism is empirically proven – there
have been over 50 plots thwarted since 9/11
New York Times, 2013
(Charlie Savage, "N.S.A. Chief Says Surveillance Has Stopped Dozens of Plots," www.nytimes.com/2013/06/19/us/politics/nsachief-says-surveillance-has-stopped-dozens-of-plots.html?_r=0)
WASHINGTON — Top national security officials on Tuesday promoted two newly declassified
examples of what they portrayed as “potential terrorist events” disrupted by government surveillance.
The cases were made public as Congress and the Obama administration stepped up a campaign to
explain and defend programs unveiled by recent leaks from a former intelligence contractor.
One case involved a group of men in San Diego convicted of sending money to an extremist group in
Somalia. The other was presented as a nascent plan to bomb the New York Stock Exchange, although its
participants were not charged with any such plot. Both were described by Sean Joyce, deputy director of the
Federal Bureau of Investigation, at a rare public oversight hearing by the House Intelligence Committee.
At the same hearing, Gen. Keith B. Alexander, the head of the National Security Agency, said that
American surveillance had helped prevent “potential terrorist events over 50 times since 9/11,”
including at least 10 “homeland-based threats.” But he said that a vast majority of the others must remain
secret.
19
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Links
Extension: Surveillance is necessary for stopping a
terrorist attack
(__)
(__) NSA surveillance is critical for information to stop a terrorist attack – this has empirically
been proven
Bergen et al, Director of the National Security Program at the New America Foundation, 2014
(Peter, "DO NSA'S BULK SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS STOP TERRORISTS?,"
https://static.newamerica.org/attachments/1311-do-nsas-bulk-surveillance-programs-stopterrorists/IS_NSA_surveillance.pdf
June 5, 2013, the Guardian broke the first story in what would become a flood of revelations regarding
the extent and nature of the NSA’s surveillance programs. Facing an uproar over the threat such programs
posed to privacy, the Obama administration scrambled to defend them as legal and essential to U.S.
national security and counterterrorism. Two weeks after the first leaks by former NSA contractor Edward
Snowden were published, President Obama defended the NSA surveillance programs during a visit to
Berlin, saying: “We know of at least 50 threats that have been averted because of this information not
just in the United States, but, in some cases, threats here in Germany. So lives have been saved.” Gen.
Keith Alexander, the director of the NSA, testified before Congress that: “the information gathered from
these programs provided the U.S. government with critical leads to help prevent over 50 potential
terrorist events in more than 20 countries around the world.” Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), chairman of
the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said on the House floor in July that “54 times
[the NSA programs] stopped and thwarted terrorist attacks both here and in Europe – saving real
lives.”
20
Terrorism Disadvantage (N, JV, & V Only)
SLUDL/NAUDL 2015-16
Immigration Surveillance prevents terrorism
(__)
(__) Terrorist will use exploit a lax immigration system in order to get in the U.S
Kephart, Researcher at Center for Immigration Studies, 2005
[Janice, “Moving Beyond the 9/11 Staff Report on Terrorist Travel”, http://cis.org/articles/2005/kephart.html]
The report highlights the danger of our lax immigration system, not just in terms of who is allowed in, but
also how terrorists, once in the country, used weaknesses in the system to remain here. The report makes
clear that strict enforcement of immigration law -- at American consulates overseas, at ports of entry, and
within the United States -- must be an integral part of our efforts to prevent future attacks on U.S. soil.
Among the findings: Of the 94 foreign-born terrorists who operated in the United States, the study found
that about two-thirds (59) committed immigration fraud prior to or in conjunction with taking part in
terrorist activity. Of the 59 terrorists who violated the law, many committed multiple immigration
violations -- 79 instances in all. In 47 instances, immigration benefits sought or acquired prior to 9/11
enabled the terrorists to stay in the United States after 9/11 and continue their terrorist activities. In at
least two instances, terrorists were still able to acquire immigration benefits after 9/11. Temporary visas
were a common means of entering; 18 terrorists had student visas and another four had applications approved
to study in the United States. At least 17 terrorists used a visitor visa -- either tourist (B2) or business (B1).
There were 11 instances of passport fraud and 10 instances of visa fraud; in total 34 individuals were
charged with making false statements to an immigration official. In at least 13 instances, terrorists
overstayed their temporary visas. In 17 instances, terrorists claimed to lack proper travel documents and
applied for asylum, often at a port of entry. Fraud was used not only to gain entry into the United States, but
also to remain, or "embed," in the country. Seven terrorists were indicted for acquiring or using various
forms of fake identification, including driver's licenses, birth certificates, Social Security cards, and
immigration arrival records. Once in the United States, 16 of 23 terrorists became legal permanent
residents, often by marrying an American. There were at least nine sham marriages. In total, 20 of 21 foreign
terrorists became naturalized U.S. citizens.
21
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Immigration Surveillance prevents terrorism
(___)
(___) Effective immigration surveillance could have prevented 9/11
Kobach, Professor of Law, University of Missouri (Kansas City), 2005
[THE QUINTESSENTIAL FORCE MULTIPLIER: THE INHERENT AUTHORITY OF LOCAL POLICE
TO MAKE IMMIGRATION ARRESTS. Albany Law Review, 69(1), 179-235.
Of critical importance is the fact that all four of the hijackers who were stopped by local police prior to
9/11 had violated federal immigration laws and could have been detained by the state or local police
officers. Indeed, there were only five hijackers who were clearly in violation of immigration laws while
in the United States— and four of the five were encountered by state or local police officers.'' These were
four missed opportunities of tragic dimension. Had information about their immigration violations been
disseminated to state and local police through the NCIC system, the four terrorist aliens could have
been detained for their violations. Adding even greater poignancy to these missed opportunities is the
fact that they involved three of the four terrorist pilots of 9/11. Had the police officers involved been
able to detain Atta, Hanjour, and Jarrah, these three pilots would have been out of the picture. It is
difficult to imagine the hijackings proceeding without three of the four pilots.*
22
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Immigration Surveillance prevents terrorism
(__) Surveillance of undocumented immigrants is key to preventing another terrorist attack
such as the one that occurred on 9/11/
Kobach, Professor of Law, University of Missouri (Kansas City), 2005
[THE QUINTESSENTIAL FORCE MULTIPLIER: THE INHERENT AUTHORITY OF LOCAL POLICE
TO MAKE IMMIGRATION ARRESTS. Albany Law Review, 69(1), 179-235.
The fact that the 9/11 terrorists had been able to exploit weaknesses in the enforcement of immigration
laws was not surprising to those engaged in the execution of federal immigration law. Enforcing the
immigration laws is one of the most daunting challenges faced by the federal government. With an estimated
7 to 10 million illegal aliens already present in the United States" and fewer than 2000 interior enforcement
agents at its disposal, the U.S. Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has a Herculean task
on its hands—one that it cannot easily accomplish alone.^ After 9/11, it became clear that an effective
domestic war against terrorism would require improvements in the enforcement of immigration laws.
On June 6, 2002, Attorney General John Ashcroft announced the National Security Entry-Exit Registration
System (NSEERS), a program that would require high-risk alien visitors to provide fingerprints and extensive
biographical information. It would also require such aliens to re-register with U.S. immigration officials
periodically a n d would, for t h e first time, impose real-time departure controls on such high-risk visitors.*
Violators of the NSEERS requirements would be listed in the National Crime Information Center (NCIC)
database, accessible in the squad cars of most local police departments, allowing local law enforcement
officers to make arrests of such high-risk immigration law . Had local police officers had access to the
names of the five 9/11 hijackers who violated civil provisions of the Immigration and Nationality Act
(INA) prior to the attack, they might have been able to arrest and detain one or more of the hijackers.
The assistance of state and local law enforcement agencies can also mean the difference between success
and failure in enforcing the nation's immigration laws generally. The nearly 800,000 police officers
nationwide represent a massive force multiplier.' This assistance need only be occasional, passive,
voluntary, and pursued during the course of normal law enforcement activity. The net that is cast daily by
local law enforcement during routine encounters with members of the public is so immense that it is
inevitable illegal aliens will be identified. When a local police officer establishes probable cause to
believe that an alien is in violation ofU.S. immigration law, he may contact the ICE Law Enforcement
Support Center in Williston, Vermont, to confirm that ICE wishes to take custody of the alien."*
23
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NSA Reform makes finding terrorists harder
(__)
(__) Reforming the NSA still prevents critical data gathering to thwart a terrorist attack and
hampers the ability for the government to effectively respond in a timely manner
Schneier, computer security and intelligence specialist, 2013
("The NSA-Reform Paradox: Stop Domestic Spying, Get More Security,"
www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/the-nsa-reform-paradox-stop-domestic-spying-get-moresecurity/279537/)
Any solution we devise will make the NSA less efficient at its eavesdropping job. That's a trade-off we
should be willing to make, just as we accept reduced police efficiency caused by requiring warrants for
searches and warning suspects that they have the right to an attorney before answering police
questions. We do this because we realize that a too-powerful police force is itself a danger, and we need to
balance our need for public safety with our aversion of a police state.
The same reasoning needs to apply to the NSA. We want it to eavesdrop on our enemies, but it needs to
do so in a way that doesn’t trample on the constitutional rights of Americans, or fundamentally
jeopardize their privacy or security. This means that sometimes the NSA won’t get to eavesdrop, just as the
protections we put in place to restrain police sometimes result in a criminal getting away. This is a trade-off
we need to make willingly and openly, because overall we are safer that way.
24
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NSA Reform makes finding terrorists harder
(__)
(__) NSA needs to maintain its secrecy to not compromise classified data – the plan collapses
that by forcing agencies to disclose classified info about counter-terror efforts that allows
organizations like Al Qaeda to continue
Yoo, Professor at University of California- Berkeley Law School, 2007
(John, "THE TERRORIST SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM AND THE CONSTITUTION," SSRN)
If ever there were an emergency that Congress could not prepare for, it was the war brought upon the United
States on 9/11. FISA was a law written with Soviet spies working out of their embassy in Washington, D.C. in
mind.221 No one then anticipated war with an international terrorist organization wielding the
destructive power of a nation. The Presidency was the institution of government best able to respond
quickly to the 9/11 attacks and to take measures to defeat al Qaeda’s further efforts. While the
certainty and openness of a congressional act would certainly be desirable, the success of the NSA
surveillance program depends on secrecy and agility, two characteristics Congress as an institution
lacks.
25
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Impact Extensions - Terrorism
(
) Unchecked terrorism ends in extinction
GORDON ’02
(Harvey, Visiting Lecturer, Forensic Psychiatry, Tel Aviv Univ, Psychiatric Bulletin, v. 26, p. 285-287, online:
http://pb.rcpsych.org/cgi/content/full/26/8/285.)
terrorism throughout human history has been tragic, until relatively recently it has been more of an irritant than
any major hazard. However, the existence of weapons of mass destruction now renders terrorism a
potential threat to the very existence of human life (Hoge & Rose, 2001). Such potential global destruction, or
globicide as one might call it, supersedes even that of genocide in its lethality. Although religious factors are not the only
determinant of ‘suicide’ bombers, the revival of religious fundamentalism towards the end of the 20th century
renders the phenomenon a major global threat. Even though religion can be a force for good, it can equally be abused as a force for evil.
Although
Ultimately, the parallel traits in human nature of good and evil may perhaps be the most durable of all the characteristics of the human species. There is no need to
apply a psychiatric analysis to the ‘suicide’ bomber because the phenomenon can be explained in political terms. Most participants in terrorism are not usually
mentally disordered and their behaviour can be construed more in terms of group dynamics (Colvard, 2002). On the other hand, perhaps psychiatric
terminology is as yet deficient in not having the depth to encompass the emotions and behaviour of
groups of people whose levels of hate, low self-esteem, humiliation and alienation are such that it is felt
that they can be remedied by the mass destruction of life, including their own.
(
)An attack on US soil inflicts suffering and death against innocent people
Kephart, Researcher at Center for Immigration Studies, 2005 [Janice Kephart, Moving Beyond the 9/11 Staff Report on Terrorist Travel,
http://cis.org/articles/2005/kephart.html]
Al Qaeda operatives discussed here were strategically positioned throughout the United States -- often in places not
previously associated with terrorist activity, such as Peoria and Chicago, Illinois; Columbus, Ohio; Baltimore, Maryland, and its suburbs; Seattle, Washington;
Portland, Oregon; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and upstate New York. A couple of al Qaeda operatives covered in this report are still at large and currently unindicted,
including Adnan Shukrijumah and Aafia Siddiqui, yet are included here because they are high on the FBI's list for questioning and spent long periods of time in the
United States. The lists found throughout this report (under immigration benefit subject headings at the end of each section) begin with
Mir Aimal
Kansi, who in January 1993 opened fire outside CIA headquarters in McLean, Virginia; the most recent cases, from
2004, involve the surveillance cases in New York City; in Charlotte, North Carolina; Nashville, Tennessee; Las Vegas, Nevada; and southern California. All told,
21 of these terrorists committed five attacks against U.S. interests causing a total of 3,341 deaths and
8,463 injuries; 29 were involved in 12 unexecuted plots. Five hijackers from 9/11 had clear immigration
violations, while one (Marwan Al-Shehhi), had a possible violation; thus, 13 hijackers are not included in the chart below. I do not discuss
the 9/11 plotters in this report or other earlier terrorists in detail, as each is covered in 9/11 and Terrorist Travel. In 47 instances, immigration
benefits sought or acquired prior to 9/11 enabled the terrorists to stay in the United States after 9/11 and
continue their terrorist activities. This includes three terrorists whose visas or entries into the United States were on 9/2/01, 9/6/01 and 9/10/01. In
three instances, terrorists sought immigration benefits after 9/11. One political asylee associated with the 9/11 hijackers was denied and deported after having
previous immigration violations. The second managed to maintain his student status in the United States through mid-2002. A third gained legal permanent residency
status in 2002. Although
each of these 94 terrorists had committed an immigration violation of some kind,
criminal charges alone were brought in at least 37 instances and immigration charges in 18. Indictments in 50
cases included both immigration and criminal charges. There have been a total of 15 deportations and 23 criminal
convictions. In 16 instances, individuals were not convicted (e.g., the six 9/11 hijackers), are being held as an enemy combatant (e.g., Khalid Sheikh
Mohammed), or have fled the United States (e.g., Anwar Al-Aulaqi, an imam associated with the 9/11 hijackers and believed to be now in Yemen.)
26
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Terrorism kills
(__)
(__) Terrorism causes countless deaths for innocent civilians
Moon, 9 Ban-Ki, Secretary General of the UN, "United Nations Efforts to Address Terrorism Threat ‘Crucial
to Global Security’, Says Secretary-General, in Message to Vienna Meeting,"
www.un.org/press/en/2009/sgsm12544.doc.htm
Terrorism is a major security threat in today’s world. Countless innocent civilians and the United
Nations itself have suffered heinous terrorist acts. Our efforts to address this problem comprehensively
are crucial to global security. I attach great importance to your work. As you know, I have appointed JeanPaul Laborde to lead the Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force [CTIFTF], and have
established a CTITF Office in the Department of Political Affairs. These measures should allow you to
build on your already considerable accomplishments. I congratulate Task Force members for bringing
together more than two dozen entities. Some are focused directly on terrorism, while others bring expertise on
non-proliferation, disarmament, education, cultural and inter-religious dialogue, human rights, peacekeeping,
health and other issues. This range of experience allows the United Nations to address terrorism as part of our
broader mission to promote development, human rights and peace. It also promotes synergies and
information-sharing, and allows each entity to maximize its comparative advantage
27
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Answer to: Terrorist attack is unlikely
(__)
(__) Even if it the risk of the attack is unlikely, the magnitude of the impact means it’s a
relevant concern to act upon
Wolfendale, 7 Jessica, Special Research Center, "Terrorism, Security, and the Threat of Counterterrorism,"
archives.cerium.ca/IMG/pdf/WOLFENDALE_2007_Terrorism_Security_and_the_Threat_of_Counterterroris
m-2.pdf
Despite the relatively low statistical threat to life posed by non-state terrorism, government officials have
portrayed the threat as both immediate and of great magnitude. So there are statements from Phillip
Ruddock and the Australian Prime Minister John Howard claiming that “there is “high probability” of a
terrorist attack occurring sooner rather than later.”18 Similarly, in the United States officials have claimed
that “Terrorism is a clear and present danger to Americans today” and “The threat of international
terrorism knows no boundaries.”19 This view is shared by the general population. Opinion polls in the
United States and in Australia show that the majority of the population believe that the threat of terrorism is
both an imminent and far greater threat than other threats.20 But perhaps the discrepancy between the
actual statistical threat of terrorism and the claims of politicians is not based just on what terrorists
might do now, but also on what they might do in the future. A supporter of radical counterterrorism
measures might accept that the statistical threat of being killed in a terrorist attack is, at present, less
than many other threats but point out that the future threat of what might be called super-terrorism is
significant enough to justify the suspension of civil liberties and the massive spending on defense and
other counterterrorism organizations. Because it is possible that a single act of terrorism could wipe out
hundreds of thousands of people instantly, the mere existence of that possibility is sufficient to make the
threat of terrorism far more significant than the threat posed by crime, disease and poverty
28
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Answer to: Terrorists aren’t a threat
(__)
(__) There is a growing threat of a terrorist attack on US soil due to resentment generated by
US presence abroad
Lewis, Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Fellow, 2014,
(James A. "Underestimating Risk in the Surveillance Debate,"
csis.org/files/publication/141209_Lewis_UnderestimatingRisk_Web.pdf)
The echoes of September 11 have faded and the fear of attack has diminished. We are reluctant to
accept terrorism as a facet of our daily lives, but major attacks—roughly one a year in the last five
years—are regularly planned against U.S. targets, particularly passenger aircraft and cities. America’s
failures in the Middle East have spawned new, aggressive terrorist groups. These groups include
radicalized recruits from the West—one estimate puts the number at over 3,000—who will return home
embittered and hardened by combat. Particularly in Europe, the next few years will see an influx of
jihadis joining the existing population of homegrown radicals, but the United States itself remains a
target. America’s size and population make it is easy to disappear into the seams of this sprawling
society. Government surveillance is, with one exception and contrary to cinematic fantasy, limited and
disconnected. That exception is communications surveillance, which provides the best and perhaps the
only national-level solution to find and prevent attacks against Americans and their allies. Some of the
suggestions for alternative approaches to surveillance, such as the recommendation that NSA only
track “known or suspected terrorists,” reflect both deep ignorance and wishful thinking. It is the
unknown terrorist who will inflict the greatest harm
29
Terrorism Disadvantage (N, JV, & V Only)
SLUDL/NAUDL 2015-16
Answers to: ISIS is not a Threat
ISIS is growing in power – all tools are necessary to mitigate their strength
Rojas June 19, 2015 (Nicole; US State Department: Isis knocks off al-Qaeda as leading terrorist oganisation;
www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-state-department-isis-knocks-off-al-qaeda-leading-terrorist-oganisation-1507091; kdf)
The Country Reports on Terrorism by the US State Department, released on 19 June, reveals Isis has beaten
al-Qaeda as the world's leading terrorist organisation. The new report found that the Islamic State in the
Middle East, as well as its partner Boko Haram in Africa, has led to the decline of al-Qaeda's power. It
reported that al-Qaeda leadership "appeared to lose momentum as the self-styled leader of a global movement
in the face of Isil's [Isis] rapid expansion." However, the report noted that al-Qaeda continued to have an
impact on terrorism. "Though AQ central leadership was weakened, the organisation continued to serve
as a focal point of 'inspiration' for a worldwide network of affiliated groups, including al-Qa'ida in the
Arabian Peninsula—a long-standing threat to Yemen, the region, and the United States; al-Qa'ida in the
Islamic Maghreb; a;-Nusrah Front; and al-Shabaab," the report said. The report also found that nearly 33,000
people were killed and another 34,700 were injured in about 13,500 terrorist attacks around the world
last year. According to NBC News, that equates to a 35% increase in terrorist attacks and an 81% rise in
fatalities since 2013. CNN reported that 24 Americans died last year in terrorist attacks, specifically in
Afghanistan, Jerusalem and Somalia. The attacks, which were dominate in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India,
Nigeria and Syria, happened in 95 countries total. More aggressive and ruthless attacks Terrorist groups
were conducting more aggressive attacks, which included "ruthless methods of violence such as
beheadings and crucifixions intended to terrify opponents". Isis and Boko Haram also employed tactics
such as "stoning, indiscriminate mass casualty attacks, and kidnapping children for enslavement".
30
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Al Qaeda is a threat
(___) Al Qaeda’s actions, statements, and internal documents prove they want nuclear
weapons and mass casualty attacks---if the US relents, it guarantees nuclear attacks
Arbuckle, Master’s student in defense analysis Naval Postgraduate School, 2008,
(Larry J., Naval Postgraduate School, "The Deterrence of Nuclear Terrorism through an Attribution
Capability", Thesis for master of science in defense analysis, approved by Professor Robert O'Connell, and
Gordon McCormick, Chairman, Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, June
However, there is evidence that a small number of terrorist organizations in recent history, and at least one
presently, have nuclear ambitions. These groups include Al Qaeda, Aum Shinrikyo, and Chechen
separatists (Bunn, Wier, and Friedman; 2005). Of these, Al Qaeda appears to have made the most serious
attempts to obtain or otherwise develop a nuclear weapon. Demonstrating these intentions, in 2001 Osama
Bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and two other al Qaeda operatives met with two Pakistani scientists to
discuss weapons of mass destruction development (Kokoshin, 2006). Additionally, Al Qaeda has made
significant efforts to justify the use of mass violence to its supporters. Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, an al
Qaeda spokesman has stated that al Qaeda, “has the right to kill 4 million Americans – 2 million of
them children,” in retaliation for deaths that al Qaeda links to the U.S. and its support of Israel (as
cited in Bunn, Wier, and Friedman; 2005). Indeed Bin Laden received a fatwa in May 2003 from an
extreme Saudi cleric authorizing the use of weapons of mass destruction against U.S. civilians (Bunn,
Wier, and Friedman; 2005). Further evidence of intent is the following figure taken from al Qaeda
documents seized in Afghanistan. It depicts a workable design for a nuclear weapon. Additionally, the
text accompanying the design sketch includes some fairly advanced weapons design parameters
(Boettcher & Arnesen, 2002). Clearly maximizing the loss of life is key among al Qaeda’s goals. Thus
their use of conventional means of attack presently appears to be a result of their current capabilities
and not a function of their pure preference (Western Europe, 2005).
31
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AQAP is a threat
AQAP has the intent and capability to strike the US homeland
Zimmerman 2012 (Katherine Zimmerman, senior analyst and the al Qaeda and Associated Movements
Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, October 19, 2012, “Al Qaeda in
Yemen: Countering the Threat from the Arabian Peninsula,” AEI Critical Threats,
http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/zimmerman-qaeda-yemen-countering-threat-arabian-peninsula-october19-2012)
The evolution of AQAP into an insurgent group aiming at controlling and governing territory in Yemen
could seem to indicate that the threat the group poses to the U.S. directly is declining. The devotion of
resources to AQAP’s internal operations, it could be argued, subtracts resources from its efforts to attack
Americans outside of Yemen. One might even suggest that American interests could be served by
encouraging AQAP, in a sense, to focus on its insurgent activities. Events do not support such a conclusion,
however. AQAP has demonstrated that it retains both the will and the capability to attempt attacks on the
U.S. homeland even as it seeks to expand territorial control within Yemen.¶ AQAP operatives mailed
bombs disguised as printer cartridges to a Chicago synagogue in October 2010 while the campaign
against Yemeni military and security targets was picking up speed.[13] The bombs were discovered after
they were already en route to the U.S. AQAP attempted another attack in May 2012, improving on the bomb
design used in the December 25, 2009 attack by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab (which AQAP had also
planned, resourced, and directed).[14] The attempt shows that AQAP still seeks to conduct international
attacks, even though the details of the attack were purported to be known to American and other
intelligence agencies before it became fully operational.[15] Should AQAP succeed in holding a
significant territorial safe haven in Yemen, of course, its ability to plan and conduct attacks abroad
could increase considerably.
32