A presentation for the IEEE
based on a report by:
Home & Building
Automation & Controls
Finally ready for the Mass Market?
by Wayne Caswell
waynecaswell@CAZITech.com
© 2006 CAZITech Consulting
CONSULTING
Building Systems Sub-industries
Lighting
Energy
Building
Mgt
HVAC
FM
LightFair
Security
Access
ISC
CCTV
FMA
WEEC
Life Safety
NFPA
Fire
Networks
ASHRAE
AHR Expo
LonWorks LonWorld
BACnet
EIB
http://www.automatedbuildings.com/news/
mar03/articles/builconn/bcon.htm
COMDEX
Wireless
IT
Telecom
NSCA
PA
Video
Retail
Hospitals
Schools
Verticals
Training
Sales
Vendors
Audio
CONSULTING
Digital Home Applications
Lighting
Comfort,
Convenience,
Security
Information
PC
Network
Internet
Access
Energy
Phone
HVAC
Audio
Irrigation
Security
Video
Entertainment
CONSULTING
Solutions Experience Lab







Hotel / Living Room
Kitchen
Garage / Car
Hospital Room
Retail Café
NW Operations Ctr
IPTV, WebSphere, RFID, Speech,
Embedded, Location Tracking,
RSS, Pen-based, Mobile Devices
CONSULTING
30-year Digital Home
Technology Timeline
HPNA 3.0
CEBus EIA-600 std
HPnP ENDS
LonWorks EIA-709 std
SCP ENDS
HPnP begun
Powerline
Relative Market Size
HomePNA founded
CEBus ENDS
IEEE 1394 std
Wireless
HomeRF ENDS
VESA HNC formed
HomeRF 2.0
802.11n
Phoneline
DAVIC formed
OSGi
802.11e
Bluetooth
CEBus IS- 60 standard
UWB
802.11g
802.11 WG founded
Zigbee
HomeRF WG founded
DOCSIS 1.0
Japan’s HomeBus
HomePlug 1.0
802.11i
DOCSIS 2.0
DOCSIS 2.0
UPnP
Echelon founded
CEBus kicks off
ECHO IV
X-10
HomePNA 2.0
Z-Wave
HomeRF 1.0
Insteon
08
06
04
02
2000
98
96
94
92
1990
88
86
84
82
1980
78
76
74
72
1970
68
Source: Parks Associates’ Research
© 2004 Parks Associates
HomePlug
BPL
802.11b, 802.11a
Firewire invented
CONSULTING
Mass Market Households
vs. High-end New Homes
A Wide CHASM separates Today’s Home Controls Niche
from Mass Market Growth
Pragmatics want
evolutionary change
and “safe” choices
Conservatives avoid
risk and are price
sensitive
Visionaries seek
competitive advantage
through revolutionary
breakthrough
Enthusiasts
try any new
technology
Innovators
Skeptics
maintain the
status quo
CHASM
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Late Majority
Source: Crossing the Chasm, by Geoffrey Moore
Laggards
Mass Market Households
vs. High-end New Homes
New Homes Valued at $500,000+ are
just 0.065% of the Total Opportunity.
105.5 M
Occupied U.S. Households
(2000 Census)
2/3 Owned
1/3 Rental
1.33 M
New Homes
1.33 M New Homes
Sold in 2003
68 K New Homes
sold in 2003 worth >$500K
Total U.S. Housing Market (#M)
New Home Construction 2002
New Home Construction 2002
New Home Value >$500,000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Home Builders
CONSULTING
PC, Internet & Home Network
Penetration (Millions of U.S. Households)
Millions of U.S. Households .
100
PC Households (#M)
Internet Households (#M)
Data Network Households (#M)
75
~76M
Broadband Households (#M)
~71M
~39M
50
25
~23M
2008p
2007p
2006p
2005p
2004p
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
0
Source : Parks Associates' Research and Forecasts
© 2004 Parks Associates
CONSULTING
Structured Wiring
(for Satellite TV, Telephone, Ethernet, 1394)
Distribution Hub / Panel
• Demarcation point for telecommunications and video services.
• Often includes Ethernet routers and video amplifiers.
• Cost: about ¼ of the entire system
Category 5 UTP cables
• Cat.5 unshielded twisted pairs support voice/data transmission
up to 100 Mbps. Cat.5e supports 1 Gbps Ethernet.
• Cost: ~$100 per 1,000 feet versus $80 for older Cat.2 cable.
RG-6 Coax Cables
• Quad-shielded and most effective media for video distribution
of hundreds of channels (satellite).
• Cost: ~$350 per 1,000 feet
Optical Fiber (optional)
• One pair has more capacity than 1,400 pairs of copper.
• Cost: about $150 per foot
Wall Outlets
• Can accommodate multiple services (data, voice, and video)
Percentage of Builders/Homes (%)
Technology Amenities
Offered & Installed
90
Percentage of Home Builders Offering Products;
% of Homes being Installed with Amenities in 2003
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Structured Wiring Security Systems
(n=113)
(n=182)
Intercoms
(n=149)
Vacuum Systems Multi-room Audio
(n=189)
(n=121)
% offering
68
79
55
68
60
% Homes with
59
67
45
41
44
Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey
© Parks Associates
CONSULTING
Percentage of Builders/Homes (%)
Entertainment Amenities
Offered & Installed
80
Percentage of Home Builders Offering Products;
% of Homes Being Installed with Amenities in 2003
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Entertainment Center
(n=113)
Home Theater PreWire (n=115)
Dedicated Home
Theater (n=109)
Media Room (n=109)
% offering
71
58
42
40
% Homes with
42
45
32
30
Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey
© Parks Associates
CONSULTING
Home Builders’ Attitudes
about offering NEW Products
We typically look for new products that can
differentiate us in the market.
62%
We are cautious about offering new products
and wait until we have customers asking us for a
new technology.
22%
Offering new products is not a priority for us; we
wait until the market dictates we need to.
Anything other than basic infrastructure is
beyond the scope of our homes.
12%
2%
% Respondents (n=317)

They sold $11 Billion in technology products in 2004 (est. $12.2B in 2005)
 They represent a Formidable Channel, but only for NEW homes
 26% have dedicated resource for New Product Development
Source: Parks Associates 2004 Builder Survey
© Parks Associates
CONSULTING
Households w/ Structured Wiring
~23M Home
Networks
Total U.S. Households (#M)
12
So, only about
1/3 can use Ethernet
8
4
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004p 2005p 2006p 2007p 2008p
Source : Parks Associates' Research
© 2004 Parks Associates
CONSULTING
Home Controls & Automation
Market Segmentation
Industrial & Commercial
AMX
Crestron
CustomLutron
(installation, support, cost)
Level of
Sophistication
Installed
HAI
Niles
BuilderInstalled
Do-it-yourself
Appliances
Data
Entertainment
Voice
X10
Control &
Security
Application Silos
Source: CAZITech & Parks Associates
CONSULTING
Home Controls & Automation
Market Drivers
1. Embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators
2. Digital Convergence: Media, Devices & Disciplines
3. Standards that Scale & attract Big Players
CONSULTING
1. Embedded Processors,
Sensors & Actuators

Average Car: 110 embedded processors
and capacity of Cray-III supercomputer

A Trillion smart devices by 2010
(interconnected by Standard Protocols)

4G Computers: Processor, Network, Power
– Berkeley’s Golem Dust (11.7 mm3)
– Berkeley’s Deputy Dust (6.6 mm3)


Inside the Home: Since you can’t anticipate
future wiring, Wireless Mesh to the rescue.
Cybernetic Age: embedded Processors, Sensors & Actuators
Outside the Home: Always-on Broadband,
BIG Broadband
CONSULTING
1. Embedded Processors,
Sensors & Actuators
More Computing Performance at Less Cost
(Embedded processors in Everything with a Digital Heartbeat)
LINEAR SCALE
COST
PERFORMANCE
TIME
CONSULTING
1. Embedded Processors,
Sensors & Actuators
More Computing Performance at Less Cost
(Embedded processors in Everything with a Digital Heartbeat)
LOGARITHMIC SCALE
COST
PERFORMANCE
TIME
CONSULTING
1. Embedded Processors,
Sensors & Actuators
Intel processors over Time, showing the effect of Moore's Law
Performance (MIPS)
Cost ($/MIPS)
100,000
Note the Logarithmic Scale
$1,000.00
Pentium 4, 3.2 GHz
50M transistors
$100.00
1,000
Pentium II, 1 GHz
20M transistors
8088, 4.77 MHz
0.03M transistors
$10.00
Pentium Pro, 200 MGHz
5.5M transistors
100
80286, 12 MHz
0.1M transistors
$1.00
10
486DX2, 66 MHz
1.2M transistors
1
Pentium, 100 MHz
3.1M transistors
Cost ($ per MIPS)
Performance (MIPS)
10,000
$0.10
32-bit 386, 20 MHz
0.2M transistors
$0.01
0.1
Source: Intel
CONSULTING
1. Embedded Processors,
Sensors & Actuators
Photocell
Night- light
Security System
Motion Sensor
Light
Whirlpool Tub
TV
Alarm Clock
Answering
Machine
GFI Plug
Hair Dryer
Garage Door
Opener
Microwave Oven
Baby Cam
Toaster
Air Conditioner
Irrigation
VCR, DVD, Cable Box, …
Coffee Pot
© 2004 Parks Associates
CONSULTING
2. Digital Convergence:
Media, Devices & Disciplines

DCI Started by IC2 Institute at U.Texas

Connecting the Greater
Waco – Austin –San Antonio Corridor

Extends UTOPIA concept
(Utah Telecomm. Open Infrastructure Agency)
Digital
Convergence
Initiative
2. Digital Convergence:
In the Home
Lighting
Home
Mgt.
Internet
Access
Energy
HVAC
Data N/W
PC
Network
CONTROL &
AUTOMATION
Comm.
Phone
Audio
Irrigation
Security
Video
Multimedia
CONSULTING
3. Standards that Scale
blur Market Segmentation
Industrial & Commercial
IP-based Standards
(reliable, scalable, affordable)
CustomInstalled
Ethernet
10/100/1000-base-T
HomePlug, UPB
Insteon
Wi-Fi
BOM = $14
(2006 MIMO)
ZigBee
Do-it-yourself
Z-Wave
MoCA
Appliances
Source: CAZITech, Parks Associates & IDC
Data Entertainment Voice
Application Integration
w/ Sensors & Actuators
Control &
Security
CONSULTING
3. Standards that Scale
attract Big Players

PC: Cisco/Linksys, HP, IBM, Microsoft,
Sony

CE: LG, Panasonic, Sanyo, Samsung,
Sharp, Sony

Semiconductor: Intel, Motorola, Philips, TI

Appliance: LG, Panasonic, Samsung,
Sanyo, Sharp, Whirlpool

Retail: BestBuy, Circuit City, CompUSA,
Home Depot, Lowe’s, Radio Shack, Sears,
Smarthome, Tweeter, Ultimate Electronics,
Wal-Mart
Finding Nemo, by Disney & Pixar Animation Studios
Working together in Trade Associations
1394 Trade Assn (1394TA.org)
Assn.of Home Appliance Mfgrs. (AHAM.org)
Continental Automated Buildings Assn. (CABA.org)
Consumer Electronics Assn. (CE.org)
Digital Living Network Assn. (DLNA.org)
Fiber-to-the-Home Council (FTTHcouncil.org)
HomePlug Powerline Alliance (HomePlug.org)
Internet Home Alliance (InternetHomeAlliance.org)
Multimedia over Coax Alliance (MoCAlliance.org)
Open Service Gateway Alliance (OSGi.org)
Universal Plug and Play Forum (UPnP.org)
Wi-Fi Alliance (wi-fi.org)
ZigBee Alliance (zigbee.org)
CONSULTING
3. Standards that Scale
attract Big Players
Promote an INDUSTRY
COMPANIES
AHAM
CABA
CEA DLNA IHA
AMX
X
X
Cisco/Linksys
B
X
Crestron Electronics
X
X
Echelon
B
X
B
Hewlett-Packard
X
LonMark
MoCA
P
X
P
IBM
X
X
P
Intel
X
X
P
Leviton
B
X
P
P
B
P
P
X
X
X
X
B
X
P
X
X
Motorola
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
B
P
P
B
P
X
X
B
P
X
P
B
X
X
X
X
P
X
P
X
Sanyo
X
Sharp
B
B
X
Smarthome
Texas Instruments
Ucentric Systems
X
Vantage Controls
Whirlpool
B
X
X
X
X
P
X
X
B
X
X
X
P
P
B
X
P
X
X
X
B
X
P
B
X
P
P
B
X
P
X
X
X
X
X
P
X
P
X
X
Sun Microsystems
ZigBee
X
X
X
Sony
X
B
Microsoft
Samsung
X
X
X
Philips Semicon.
Wi-Fi
X
X
X
UPnP
B
P
Lutron
Panasonic
OSGi
X
P
Honeywell
X
HomePlug
X
X
X
1394
X
B
LG Electronics
Promote Specific STANDARDS
X
P
X
X
X
B
X
P
X
B
X
X
X
X
X
P
X
X
X
X
Standards & Technologies
that impact Home Control
NAME
BRIEF DESCRIPTION
CLASS
TYPE
URL
PHONELINE, COAX – Uses existing phone lines and coaxial cables for high-speed data networking
HomePNA™
HomeRAN™
MoCA
High-speed network using phone outlets
High-speed network using coax outlets
High-speed network from Multimedia over Coax Alliance
Data
Data
Data
Consortia
Proprietary
Consortia
HomePNA.org
TMT3.com
MoCAlliance.co
m
STRUCTURED WIRING – Nets that rely on specialized Structured Wiring (RG-6 coax and Cat.5/6/7 TTP)
Ethernet
IEEE 802.3 high-speed network, 10/100/1000 Mbps
Data
Standard
HAVi
IEEE 1394
TIA/EIA-570-A
Home Audio Video interoperability in entertainment cluster
Very high-speed connection (AKA Firewire, iLink)
Telecommunications Cabling Standard (specs the wire)
Data
Data
Media
Consortia
Standard
Standard
grouper.ieee.o
rg/groups/802/
3/
HAVi.org
1394ta.org
TiaOnline.org
DEVICE/NETWORK MANAGEMENT – Device Discovery, Network Management, and Upper Layer Stds
CableHome™
DOCSIS™
OpenCable™
Jini
OSGi™
UPnP™
Extend cable-based services over home network
Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification
Plug-and-Play retail TV receivers
Sun’s Java based open software architecture
Open Service Gateway initiative – development platform
Microsoft’s Universal Plug and Play collection of standards
Data
CableLabs
® Consortia
cablelabs.com
/projects/cable
home/
Discovery
Gateways
Various
Consortia
Consortia
Consortia
Jini.org
OSGi.org
UPnP.org
INTERNET PROTOCOLS – Increasingly used in home control applications, especially for remote access
TCP/IP
UDP
HTML
HTTP
XML
SSL
Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol
User Datagram Protocol – simpler than TCP, runs on IP
Hypertext Markup Language – for graphical user interface
Hypertext Transfer Protocol – messaging format & transfer
Extensible Markup Language – creates customized tags
Secure Sockets Layer – private key encryption
Data
Data
GUI
Data
Data
Data
Standard
Standard
Standard
Standard
Standard
Standard
W3.org
W3.org
W3.org
W3.org
W3.org
W3.org
Standards & Technologies
that impact Home Control
NAME
BRIEF DESCRIPTION
CLASS
TYPE
URL
OBSOLETE – Development has stopped on these standards, although some products still use them.
CEBus®
Home Plug & Play™
HomeRF™
SCP
ANSI standard (EIA-600, -721, -776)
CIC branded CEBus network using CAL (EIA-721) protocol
2.4 GHz wireless network merging voice, data & streaming
Simple Control Protocol using CEBus, Home Plug & Play
Control
Control
Data
Control
Standard
Standard
Consortia
Consortia
CEBus.org
CEBus.org
HomeRF.org
N/A
WIRELESS – Uses radio transmissions in unlicensed bands such as 900MHZ, 2.4 GHz and 5 GHz
Bluetooth®
IrDA®
RadioRA™
IEEE 802.15.1 – short range wireless cable replacement
Infrared Data Association – line of sight control & data
Lutron’s proprietary wireless control protocol
WPAN
Control
Control
Standard
Consortia
Proprietary
Ultra-Wideband
Wi-Fi®
WiMAX
IEEE 802.15.3a – high-speed, short range wireless
IEEE 802.11a/b/g… – high-speed wireless LAN
IEEE 802.16 – High-speed wireless MAN
WPAN
WLAN
WMAN
Standard
Standard
Standard
ZigBee
Z-Wave™
IEEE 802.15.4 – low power, low cost mesh network
Low power, low cost mesh network
Control
Control
Standard
Proprietary
ZigBee.org
Zen-sys.com
BACnet.org
echonet.gr.jp/e
nglish/
HomePlug.org
Insteon.net
Echelon.com
pcslighting.co
m
X10.com
Bluetooth.com
IrDA.org
Lutron.com/ra
diora
UWB.org
Wi-Fi.org
WiMaxForum.or
g
POWERLINE – Uses A/C power mains or electric utility’s power grid
BACnet
Echonet
Amer.Soc.of Heating, Refrig. & A/C Engineers (ASHRAE)
Japanese Energy Conservation & HOmecare NETwork
Control
Control
Consortia
Consortia
HomePlug™
Insteon™
LonWorks™
UPB™
High-speed network using OFDM technology
Smarthome’s Dual band (RF + powerline) control network
EIA-709 powerline control based on Echelon’s Lon Talk
Universal Powerline Bus from Powerline Control Systems
Data
Control
Control
Control
Consortia
Proprietary
Standard
Proprietary
X10
De facto standard for low-speed powerline control
Control
Proprietary
Powerline Standards
for Home Networking & Controls
FEATURE
X-10
UPB
LonWorks
HomePlug AV
Insteon
Devices
256
>62K
>32K
>16M
Cost (lamp mod.)
$12 lamp
$75 lamp
$35
$30 lamp
Reliability
1-way
2-way
2-way
2-way
Speed
1-3 sec.
0.3 sec.
Range
150’
75’
4,000’
n*150’
Compatibility
de facto
Proprietary
ANSI/EIA709
X-10
Function
See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_line_communication
85-200 Mbps
0.04 sec.
Wireless Standards
for Home Networking & Controls
Tradeoffs

Cost

Battery Life

Compatibility

Ease of Setup & Use

Reliability

Security

Range

Speed
Wireless Positioning
(Relative Measures on Logarithmic Scale)
Nomadic
3G Cellular
2/2.5G Cellular
802.20
802.16e
802.16a
(WiMAX)
100m
Vehicular
1,000m 10,000+m
Range
Stationary
10m
802.11
802.15.4
(ZigBee, UWB Lite)
Z-Wave
(Wi-Fi)
802.15.1
802.15.3
(Bluetooth)
(UWB)
0.1 Mbps
1 Mbps
10 Mbps
100+ Mbps
Throughput
CONSULTING
Wireless Standards
for Home Networking & Controls
Remote Control
of A/V Equipment
or Media Center PC
Remote Control
of Surveillance
Equipment
Wireless Standards
for Home Networking & Controls
AMX Modero
Crestron
Sony VAIO VGN-U50
CorAccess Amigo
Niles TS1 (~$500)
Philips Pronto
Remote Control S/W
for existing PDA
Mesh Networking
Source:
CONSULTING
Mesh Networking
Source:
CONSULTING
Mesh Networking
Self Configuring
Source:
CONSULTING
Mesh Networking
Source:
CONSULTING
Mesh Networking
Self Healing
Source:
CONSULTING
Network Topologies
ZigBee & Z-Wave
Mesh
Star
Cluster Tree
PAN coordinator
End Device
CONSULTING
Bridging Clusters
>10,000 Devices (254 * 255 )
254 Devices
254 Devices
254 Devices
PAN coordinator
End Device
CONSULTING
Wireless Standards
for Home Control Applications
ZigBee
FEATURE
Z-Wave
INSTEON
Devices
>64K (254*255)
255 per controller
16.7 M
Cost / Availability
None yet
Zensys ~$1 chip set
Home Depot, Lowes
~$2 chip set
$35 lamp module
Battery Life
Low Power
Low Power
Low Power
Frequency
868/915 MHz (EU/NA)
2.4 GHz (WW)
868/908 MHz (EU/NA)
868/915 MHz (EU/NA)
131/120 KHz (PLC)
Speed
40-250 Kbps
9.6-40 Kbps
10 messages/sec
Range
~150’
~150’
~150’
Compatibility
IEEE 802.15.4
Proprietary
Proprietary, X-10
Topology
Routed Mesh/Star
Supervised
Routed Mesh/Star
Supervised
Peer-to-Peer Mesh
Non-supervised
CONSULTING
Conclusions
The Consumer’s Cultural Lag
What we are
confronted with
Cultural lag
Technology Innovation Curve
What we are
able to take in
Consumer Adoption Curve
© 2004 Parks Associates
CONSULTING
Conclusions
Ready for the Mass Market?
We FINALLY have Scalability
But TOO Many Standards
Need a DOMINANT Player
Tough MARKETING Challenges





Awareness
Branding
Partnerships
Value
Packaging
X-10 ActiveHome Home Automation Kit with
5-in-1 remote, PC interface, and software $49.95
CONSULTING
Reference Material













AutomatedBuildings.com (Resource: Building Management Systems)
CABA.org (Continental Automated Buildings Association – Residential & Commercial)
CAZITech.com (CAZITech Consulting – Speaker’s home page)
Control4.com (Good online marketing of ZigBee solution)
CortexaTechnology.com (Flexible and well-architected solution from local firm)
DLNA.org (Digital Living Network Alliance)
HomeToys.com (Resource: Residential Market and Do-it-yourself)
InternetHomeAlliance.com (Collaborative Market Research)
MesaHome.com (Austin’s oldest Home Systems installer)
ParksAssociates.com (Premier Home Systems market researcher)
SmartHome.com (INSTEON developer and online Home Systems retailer)
Z-WaveAlliance.org (Z-Wave information)
ZigBeeAlliance.org (ZigBee information)
CONSULTING
Wayne Caswell
waynecaswell@cazitech.com
512-507-6011
After retiring from IBM, Wayne Caswell founded CAZITech Consulting and co-founded Homeowners
of Texas, a nonprofit consumer advocacy. He is known as a Technical Marketing Strategist, Futurist,
and Consumer Advocate. With some 40 years of experience, Wayne is now older and wiser but still
enthusiastic and physically fit. He keeps learning new things and pushing new boundaries and is
currently studying the intersections of dozens of MiniTrends, looking for innovative companies with a
promising future and a corporate culture he can support and believe in.
© 2006 CAZITech Consulting
CONSULTING