US-CHINA RELATIONS UNDER OBAMA:
CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND
MANAGEMENT OF POWER
TRANSITION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC
CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
FACULTY OF ARTS AND SOCIAL SCIENCES
43 Years of Complex Relations
China’s Rise at a Glance
Population: 1.343 Billion
GDP in 2014: US$10.36 Trillion (est.)
GDP with PPP in 2014: US$17.63 Trillion (est.)
GDP Growth Rate in 2014: 7.4%
Trade Volume: US$3.98 Trillion in 2013
Foreign Exchange Reserves: US$3.89 Trillion
Foreign Direct Investment: US$1.344 Trillion
Defense Budget: US$119/150+ Billion
Armed Forces: 2.333 Million
What Do We Know?
China is rising, and rising fast in GDP terms.
Beijing’s influence is growing and its
presence is extending to Africa, Latin
America, Central Asia, as well as East Asia.
Many of the global/regional issues/problems
requires China’s participation.
China is becoming more assertive on some
issues.
Is it acting as a responsible power or not?
China as a Partial Power
 China as a global actor, not a global power
 China as an ambivalent power, with limited
objectives and low-key diplomacy
 China’s continuing focus on domestic
issues and its interests in the Asia-Pacific
 China’s limited soft power
 China as a lonely rising power
 Gaps between expectations and roles
 Peaceful or bumpy rise?
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China in Indo-Pacific Region
Permanent Member, UNSC
Membership: APEC, ARF, EAS, APT
Hosting Six-Party Talks
Growing Military Capabilities
Economic Engine of the Region
Chinese “Soft Power”
Reassuring Neighbors, Managing
Disputes
Japan, India, ASEAN, Central Asia
Indo-Pacific and China’s Rise
Changing Military/Economic/Political
Balances
Regional Hegemony and Use of Force
Arms Competition and Military Conflicts
Taiwan, Koreas and the South China Sea
Security Cooperation vs. Military Alliances
Assurances and Military Transparency
Economic Integration/regionalization
Sino-US relations and regional security
Sino-US Relations:
Cooperation and Conflict
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Economic Interdependence
Anti-terrorism
North Korean Nuclear Issue
Energy Security & Climate Change
Nuclear Security
Non-traditional security (e.g. antipiracy in the Gulf of Aden)
 UN peacekeeping
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Strategic Rivalry
Trade Disputes
Human Rights
WMD Proliferation
The Taiwan Issue
US-Japan Alliance
Energy Security
Cyber Security
Space Security
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Economic Cooperation
Economic Friction
US-China Trade in 2012: $536 bn; US trade deficit: $315 bn
Same Boat, Different Directions?
Hedging Against a Rising China
America’s Allies in Asia
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US Alliances in Asia
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US Security Partners in Asia
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A2/AD and US ASBC
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Dialogue and Consultation
 Strategic & Economic Dialogue
 Joint Economic Commission on
Commerce and Trade
 Defense Consultative Talks
 Military Maritime Consultative
Agreement (MMCA)
 Bilateral Consultation on Arms
Control and Nonproliferation
 China as a “Stakeholder” in the
International System
 Recent military MOUs
US-China Military Ties
High-level exchange visits
Military dialogues and consultation (DCT;
MMCA)
Functional exchanges and port calls
Maritime search and rescue, disaster reliefs,
anti-piracy operations
Transparency and reciprocity
PLA participation in RIMPAC 2014
Taiwan arms sales; CBMs; crisis management
Bilateral Ties under Obama
Strategic and Economic Dialogue
A New Type of Relationship?
 Xi’s 2012 visit and Obama-Xi 2013 Sunnyland meeting:
“No confrontation or military conflict; mutual respect;
cooperation for win-win outcomes”
 Obama administration’s responses: mutual interests in
breaking historical patterns of great-power rivalry and
wars
 Basis for developing a new type of relationship but lack
of mutual turst
 US concerns over the concept’s implications and
demands for concession
 Seeking cooperation/managing conflicts; defining
“status quo”; respecting rules and norms
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Managing Bilateral Relations
 Managing relative power shifts
(China catching up; US staying
power and advantages)
 Managing power diffusion (primacy
vs. sharing power)
 Managing strategic perceptions
(overcome mutual distrust)
 Managing areas of frictions (military
buildup; Taiwan Strait; alliances and
assurance; maritime time
disputes/SLOCs)
 Managing policy coordination where
common interests exist on key
issues and challenges (North Korea;
NTS threats)
 The Xi-Obama summit (Nov 2014)