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Ch 2 & 3
 Fast Facts
o What is Demographics?
o Why is it a vital study?
o What factors contribute to the study of demographics?
o What are the processes and cycles of population change?
o What demographic issues are prevalent in the world?
 The
study of population, the trends, and influences
it has on people, countries, and politics
 U.S.
population- little over 310 million
 World pop- just over 7 billion
 Less Dev countries- 5.2 billion
 World births/yr- 132.3 mill
 Less dev births/yr- 123.89 mill
 World births/sec- 4.2
 Less dev births/sec- 3.9
 World deaths/yr- 56 mill
 Less dev deaths/yr- 44 mill
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Less dev. Countries: 76%
Africa: 69%
Africa (m): 81%
Iraq (f): 29%
Afghanistan (f): 12.6% (total pop.): 28.1%
Iran (f): 91%
Chad (f): 12.8% (total pop.): 25.7%
Morocco (f): 61%
Females Enrolled in Sec. School
o 75% Iran
o 41% Morocco
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Population Rates
Migration Patterns
Population Density: total population relative to land size
• Assumed even distribution of land/people
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Health Issues
Status of Women
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Environments and natural resources strained
Regional population shifts occur w/ droughts, famine,
diseases
Leveled off due to industrialism
Population decline has its own disadvantages
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People in search of better lives, health, jobs continues
Migration not just an international issue
Effects migration has on receiving country
o Economics, health care, education…
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Whereo Distribution of people
o Technology advanced societies find clusters in cities and towns
• Arithmetic Density: population of a country/region expressed as an
average per unit area
o Physical Density- Physiological population density: number of people
per unit area of agriculturally productive land
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Countries attempting to control birth rates and immigration
This sometimes has a negative effect on the economy and
population
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CBR- Crude Birth Rate per 1,000 people
CDR- Crude Death Rate/1,000
NIR- Difference between CBR and CDR
TFR- Total Fertility Rate- avg. amt of children to
women of child bearing years
IMR- Infant Mortality Rate- number of babies
dead/1,000 >1 year old
Life Expectancy- avg. length of person’s life
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Economic development
o Employment opportunities, nutrition
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Education
o Better education leads to lower TFR
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Gender Empowerment
o Relative status given to women, political, economic access
increasing empowerment
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Healthcare
o Improved healthcare decreases IMR; provide contraceptives that
decrease CBR
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Cultural Traditions
o Some cultures encourage high TFR; deter women from society
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http://www.greenberg-art.com/.Toons/.Toons,%20Environ/PopulationTrain.html
Stage I
Stage II
Stage III
Stage IV
Birth Rate
Population
Death Rate
1700
Demographic
Growth
1800
1900
2000
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DTM is a western model meant to illustrate stages of
development and growth
Not every country will go thru these stages at the same time
or at all
o China and Japan are examples of this phenomenon
o Model is meant to show patterns found in history and geography

Population changes as result of four things:
o Births + immigration = increase
o Deaths + emigration = decrease
o TP=OP+B--D+I-E
• Total pop. = Original pop. + Births- Deaths+ Immigrations -Emigration
o This equation better suited to study pop trends
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The shift from high to low mortality and fertility
Based on the experience of Western Europe
Began by Warren Thompson in 1929
Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein
A sign of socio-economic progress?
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Earth’s Population History
7 billion reached 2011 (12 years later)
6 billion reached 1999 (12 years later)
5 billion reached 1987 (13 years later)
4 billion reached 1974 (15 years later)
3 billion reached 1959 (29 years later)
2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later)
1 billion reached circa 1830
Source: Kuby, HGIA
Demographic Transition Model
DTM based on historical patterns in Europe & other MDCs
DTM only predicts changes
in birth/death rates over
time
Observed changes in RNI
correlate to changes in
economic development
Thus, DTM implies:
The greater the wealth,
the lower the RNI ... but
use caution describing this
relationship
Stages in Classic 4-Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
(Some books show a 3-stage model; others mention a new 5th stage)
Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial”
High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40)
Population growth very slow
Agrarian society
High rates of communicable diseases
Pop. increases in good growing years;
declines in bad years (famine, diseases)
No country or world region still in Stage One
Stage 2: “Early Industrial”
High birth rates (over 30) but death
rates decline (to about 20)
RNIs increase sharply (pop.
explosion); growth rate increases
thruout Stage Two
Growth not from increase in
births, but from decline in deaths
MDCs = starts early 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1950s
TRANSITION TO STAGE TWO IN CLASSIC DTM
Known as the Epidemiologic Transition
Agricultural technology
Improvements in food supply: higher yields as agricultural practices
improved in “Second Agricultural Revolution” (18th century)
In Europe, food quality improved as new foods introduced from Americas
Medical technology
Better medical understanding (causes of diseases; how they spread)
Public sanitation technologies
Improved water supply (safe drinking water)
Better sewage treatment, food handling, and general personal hygiene
Improvements in public health especially reduced childhood mortality
Declining Infant Mortality Rates
When IMR declines, fertility rates drop soon after
Age of communicative
diseases
Age of receding
pandemics
Age of degenerative and
man-made diseases
Share of mortality
Degenerative diseases
Low Fertility
Low Mortality
High Fertility
High Mortality
LI=70 years
LI=30 years
LI=50 years
Communicative diseases
High Fertility
Decreasing Mortality
Time
Stage 3: “Later Industrial”
Birth rates decline sharply (to
about 15)
Death rates decline a bit more
(to about 10 or less)
Note growth still occurs, but at
a reduced and declining rate
MDCs = starts in late 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1980s*
* Or hasn’t started yet
Stage Three:
Further
improvements in
medicine lower
death rates
more; raise life
expectancies
Measles Mortality, US, since 1900
TB Mortality, US, since 1900
TRANSITION TO STAGE THREE IN CLASSIC DTM
Known as the Fertility Transition
Societies become more urban, less rural
Declining childhood death in rural areas (fewer kids needed)
Increasing urbanization changes traditional values about having children
City living raises cost of having dependents
Women more influential in childbearing decisions
Increasing female literacy changes value placed on motherhood
as sole measure of women’s status
Women enter work force: life extends beyond family, changes attitude
toward childbearing
Improved contraceptive technology, availability of birth control
But contraceptives not widely avail in 19th century; contributed little to
fertility decline in Europe … Fertility decline relates more to change in
values than to availability of any specific technology
Rapidly increasing urbanization in world LDCs today
Population Classified as Urban
Strong inverse
relationship between
female literacy and
fertility rates,
observed globally
Increasing
availability and use
of modern
contraception in most
LDCs since 1970s
Stage 4: “Post-Industrial”
Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10)
Population growth very low or zero
MDCs = starts after 1970s
LDCs = hasn’t started yet
Stage 5 (?): Hypothesized (not in Classic DTM)
Much of Europe now or soon in population decline
as birth rates drop far below replacement level
Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries
Differences in DTM
experience: MDCs & LDCs
● Faster decline in death rates
— Tech improvements diffused
from MDCs & applied rapidly in
LDCs post-WW2
● Longer lag between decline
in deaths and decline in births
— Stage 3 slower start in LDCs
where econ growth is delayed
● Higher max rates of growth
in LDCs — Over 3.5% peak RNI in
Mauritius and Mexico; only 1.3%
peak in Sweden
Age structures today in LDCs are much younger than MDCs
experienced – leading to prolonged “Demographic Momentum” –
expected growth of pop. long after fertility declines
Percentage of Population Under Age 15
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In 1798 Thomas Malthus
published his views on the
effect of population on food
supply. His theory has two
basic principles:
Population grows at a
geometric rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16,
32, etc.
Food production increases at
an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3,
4, etc.
 The
consequence of these two principles is that
eventually, population will exceed the capacity of
agriculture to support the new population numbers.
Population would rise until a limit to growth was
reached. Further growth would be limited when:
o preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of
fertility rate), increased cost of food etc.
o positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the
death rate.
Population grows geometrically….
Population exceeds carrying
capacity…
Population is kept in “check”–
preventative and/or positive
checks
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The “Malthusian crisis”
o Available agricultural spaces are limited.
o Technical progresses (machinery, irrigation, fertilizers, and new
types of crops) are slow to occur.
o Increasing incapability to support the population.
o If this persists, the population will eventually surpass the available
resources.
o The outcomes are “Malthusian crises”:
• Food shortages.
• Famines.
• War and epidemics.
o “Fix” the population in accordance with available resources.
o Necessity of a “moral restraint” on reproduction.
t3
Quantity
Technological Innovation
t2
t1
Resources
Population
Overexploitation
Time
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The Malthusian Crisis has not occurred
o Malthus has been criticized on several accounts during the last 200
years.
o Religious view (Protestantism), racist and elitist.
o Did not foresee the demographic transition:
• Changes in the economy that changed the role of children in the
industrializing societies.
o Failed to account for improvements in technology:
• Enabled food production to increase at rates greater than arithmetic,
often at rates exceeding those of population growth.
• Enabled to access larger amounts of resources.
• Enabled forms of contraception.
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
Millions
700
300
250
650
600
550
6
500
450
5
400
350
Wheat Production (tons)
Rice Production (tons)
Population
200
4
3
Billions
7
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In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths to
feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a
large population;
In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more
people there are, the more hands there are to work;
She argued that as population increases, more pressure
is placed on the existing agricultural system, which
stimulates invention;
The changes in technology allow for improved crop
strains and increased yields.
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Malthus– anti-populationist
o Echoed in recent debates by Paul Ehrlich, author of
The Population Bomb;
o Ehrlich believed that the earth’s carrying capacity
would quickly be exceeded, resulting in widespread
famine and population reductions;
Boserup– pronatalist (cornucopian)
o Echoed in recent debates by Julian Simon, who
opposed Ehrlich by using economic theories; ie.
Resources needed to support populations are
becoming more abundant, not scarcer;
POPULATION STRUCTURE
The population pyramid displays the age
and sex structure of a country or given area
OLD DEPENDANTS
Population in
Five Year
Age bands
ECONOMICALLY
ACTIVE
YOUNG
DEPENDANTS
MALES
To the left
Usually, but not always,
in % to make for easier
comparisons
between countries
FEMALES
To the right
What Population Pyramids Show Us
Economically
More
Developed
Country
Economically
Less
Developed
Country
KEY
slope of pyramid indicate the death rate
width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate
proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations
height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the
wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)
"kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in
death rate in the past
area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different
population age groups or different sex on one graph
The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an
Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country
Population Pyramids related to the
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
IMPLICATIONS
Both birth rates and
Death rates are
High, so population
growth rates are
slow but population
Is usually restored
Due to high birth
Rate. Short life
Expectancy
EXAMPLES: none
today - Afghanistan,
Ivory Coast (30
years ago)There are
no Stage 1
countries today
Stage 2
IMPLICATIONS
Population starts
to grow at an
exponential rate due to
fall in Crude Death Rate.
More living In middle age.
Life expectancy rises
Infant mortality rate falls.
EXAMPLES: DR Congo,
Yemen, Afghanistan
(today)
Stage 3
Stage 4
IMPLICATIONS
IMPLICATIONS
Population continues
to grow but at slower
rate. Low C Death
Rate.
Dramatically declining
Crude Birth Rate.
Low Crude Birth Rate
and Crude Death Rate
Higher dependency ratio
and longer life expectancy
Crude Death Rate does
Rise slightly because of
The ageing population
EXAMPLES: India,
EXAMPLES: China, United
Brazil (late 3) – Most of States, Canada, Australia
world is in 3
There is some merit in including or considering
a Stage 5 today with a declining populationEurope - Japan
Practice with real pyramids-What Stage
of DTM?
4
3
2
5
Practice with real pyramids-What Stage
of DTM is US?
Challenging – why?
2011 Data
• TFR 2.1
• BR 14
• DR 8
• Natural Increase: .6%
• Growth Rate: .9%
• Why is Growth Rate
higher?
• How does this impact
pyramid?
• Pyramid looks like a late
3 country.
• But does US fit
description profile of
Stage 4 better?
Summary of DTM for LDCs
Industrializing LDCs with some economic
development follow DTM more closely; now in
Stage Three. Most like MDCs in places where
female literacy has increased the most.
Lowest-income countries have high birth rates
and deaths are leveling off at higher rates than
DTM predicts (Stage Two).
In some LDCs, death rates starting to increase
(epidemics, worsening poverty)
AZ: Breakdown by Ethnic Population
Groups within MDCs may have varying pop patterns
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Infant mortality rate (IMR)
o Babies death within 1st year of life
o Reflects overall health of a society
o High IMR= physical health of mother key factor, inadequately nourished,
exhausted from over work, poorly educated, infants die due to improper
weaning, diarrhea, malnutrition poor sanitation
o globally IMR is on the decline even in poverty stricken countries
o Varies with in countries
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Newborn death rate (NDR)
o Measure of how many babies die within 1st month of life out of 1000
o US has second highest NDR in world –from premature births & low
birth rate babies
o In poorer nations it is due to diarrhea and infections
o 99% of newborn deaths & 98% of maternal deaths occur in LDC
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Child mortality rate (CMR)
o Those that die between the ages of 1-5
o Kwashiorkor: protein malnutrition
o Marasmus: inadequate protein & calories
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Life Expectancy
o Expected age at birth
o Japan highest in world, projected to be 106 in 2300
o Tropical Sub-Saharan African lowest
• If you make it out of childhood you will more than likely live way past the
LE
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Infectious: invasion of parasites on the body
o Kills millions world wife annually
o Vectored: malaria
• Given to you by a mosquito, flea, worm, snail, etc.
• Tropical climates the worst
o Non vectored: influenza
• Given to you by a kiss, handshake, sneeze/cough, bodily contact
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Chronic or Degenerated: afflictions of middle/old age
o Heart disease, cancer, strokes, pneumonia, diabetes, tuberculosis
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Genetic: passed down through genes
o Allergies, heart disease, some cancers
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AIDS
o Low life expectancies
o Pandemic
o Reshaping populations in Africa & South East Asia
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How did the Aswan Dam change life in Egypt?
How is Egypt reclaiming the desert?
Describe life in the Sultanate of Oman before the
development of its oil reserves.
What is Omanization?
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What is Immigration?
Why has immigration played an important role in the
development of the United States? (hint: think about your
own family)
Why do people immigrate to the US? Why do they leave their
country?
When you hear the word “immigrant” what is the first thing
that comes to mind?
Why is immigration a hot topic now –especially politically &
economically?
Why do people in the US have a negative opinion about
immigration?
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On a sheet of paper answer the following questions
o Do you think that they US should deport all illegal immigrants?
Why/why not?
o Do you think the US should build a wall along the entire border it
shares with Mexico? What about Canada?

When you are finished turn it in and get ready to watch the
movie!!
o Ready = listening, reading (yep there are subtitles), paper to write
notes on, move if your neighbor is going to distract you, put phones
and mp3 players in your pocket or backpack
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In your notebook on page 31-33
If you could ask anyone in the film a single question, who
would you ask and what would you ask them?
Did anything in this film surprise you? If so, what? Why was
it surprising?
What insights or new knowledge did you gain from this film?
Two months from now, what do you think you will remember
from this film?
In your view, what is the significance of the film’s title?
Create a Venn Diagram comparing/contrasting last week’s
video to this week’s video
o You must have at least 3 items in each portion of the bubble
MIGRATION
Chapter 3
What Is Migration?
• Movement
– Cyclic movement: Movement away from home
for a short period
•Commuting
•Seasonal movement
•Nomadism
– Periodic movement: Movement away from
home for a longer period.
•Migrant labor
•Transhumance
•Military service
Migration
Migration –
A change in residence
that is intended to
be permanent.
Little Haiti, Miami, Florida
International migration:
Movement across country borders (implying a degree of
permanence)
Internal migration:
Movement within a single country’s borders (implying a
degree of permanence)
Why do People Migrate?
• Forced Migration – Human migration flows
in which the movers have no choice but to
relocate.
• Voluntary Migration – Human migration
flows in which the movers respond to
perceived opportunity, not force.
Why Do People Migrate?
• Forced migration: Movers have no choice
but to relocate
Kinds of Voluntary Migration
• Step Migration –
When a migrant follows a path of a series of stages, or
steps toward a final destination.
* intervening opportunity –at one of the steps along
the path, pull factors encourage the migrant to settle
there.
• Chain Migration –
When a migrant communicates to family and friends at
home, encouraging further migration along the same
path, along kinship links.
Voluntary Migration
• Migrants weigh push
and pull factors to
decide
– Whether to move
– Where to go
• Distance decay: Many
migrants settle closer
to their old home than
they originally
contemplate
Simple Push/Pull Migration Model
Location A
Push
PUSH FACTORS
Pressures which
persuade a person
to move away from
an area.
Location B
Migration
Pull
PULL FACTORS
Those which attract
the migrant to a
particular destination.
Push and Pull Factors
• Legal status
• Economic conditions
• Power relationships
• Political circumstances
• Armed conflict and civil war
• Environmental conditions
• Culture and traditions
• Technological advances
Economic Conditions –
Migrants will often risk their lives in hopes of economic
opportunities that will enable them to send money home
(remittances) to their family members who remain behind.
Environmental Conditions –
In Montserrat, a 1995 volcano made the southern half of the
island, including the capital city of Plymouth, uninhabitable.
People who remained migrated to the north or to the U.S.
Real / Perceived
Location A
+
Lee’s Migration Model
Intervening Obstacles
+
0
Does not isolate
particular push and pull
factors. Each site has
a range of attributes.
Different people will
have different
perceptions of the
factors.
Location B
0
Intervening Place
+
?
-
0
Source: Adapted from Global Challenge. Alistair McNaught and Michael Witherick. Longman. 2001.
Lee’s Migration Model
Source: Population, Resources and Development. Jane Chrispin and Francis Jegede. Collins Educational.1996.
Ravenstein’s Laws
1. Every migration flow generates a return or
countermigration.
2. The majority of migrations move a short
distance.
3. Migrants who move longer distances tend to
choose big-city destinations.
4. Urban residents are less migratory than
inhabitants of rural areas.
5. Families are less likely to make international
moves than young adults.
Step Migration
Step Migration
Gravity Model
= the # of migrants
Based upon Newton’s law of Universal Gravitation
“The number of people moving between places A and B is
equal to the population of A multiplied by the population of
B divided by the square of the distance between them.”
The potential number of migrants will be bigger where the
population of the of departure and arrival are large.
The friction of distance acts as a break.
Gravity Model
Where Do People Migrate?
• Influences on major global migration flows from
1550–1950
– Exploration
– Colonization
– The Atlantic slave trade
• Impacts
– Places migrants leave
– Places to which migrants go
Major Global Migration Flows
(before 1950)
Regional Migration Flows
Migration to neighboring
countries
 For short term
economic opportunities
 To reconnect with
cultural groups across
borders
 To flee political conflict
or war
Islands of development: Places where
foreign investment, jobs, and
infrastructure are concentrated
Migration for Economic Opportunity
Chinese migration in
late 1800s and
1900s throughout
Southeast Asia to
work in trade,
commerce, and
finance
Migration to Reconnect with Cultural Groups
• Migration of about
700,000 Jews to thenPalestine between 1900
and 1948
• Forced migration of
600,000 Palestinian
Arabs after 1948, when
the land was divided
into two states (Israel
and Palestine)
Migration within a Country
• Migration between regions of a country
– Migration between regions within the U.S.
– Migration between regions in other countries
• Migration within one region
– Rural-urban migration
– Urban-suburban migration
– Migration from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan
regions
Center of Population in the U.S.
Fig. 3-12: The center of U.S. population has consistently moved westward, with the
population migration west. It has also begun to move southward with
migration to the southern sunbelt.
Interregional Migration in the U.S.
Fig. 3-13: Average annual migrations between regions in the U.S. in 1995 and in 2000.
Intraregional Migration in the U.S.
Fig. 3-14: Average annual migration among urban, suburban, and rural areas in the U.S.
during the 1990s. The largest flow was from central cities to suburbs.
Contemporary Migration Fields
Global Migration Patterns
Fig. 3-2: The major flows of migration are from less developed to more developed
countries.
Net Migration (per population)
Fig. 3-3: Net migration per 1000 population. The U.S. has the largest number of immigrants,
but other developed countries also have relatively large numbers.
Migration to U.S., by Region of
Origin
Fig. 3-4: Most migrants to the U.S were from Europe until the 1960s. Since then, Latin
America and Asia have become the main sources of immigrants.
Migration from Asia to the U.S.
Fig. 3-5: The largest numbers of migrants from Asia come from India, China, the
Philippines, and Vietnam.
Migration from Latin America to the U.S.
Fig. 3-6: Mexico has been the largest source of immigrants to the U.S., but immigrants
have also come from numerous other Latin American nations.
Change in Pattern (US)
Undocumented Immigrants in the US
Fig. 3-7: California, Texas, and Florida are the leading destinations for
undocumented immigrants to the U.S.
U.S. Mexico
Border
at Tijuana
The U.S. side of the border
is uninhabited and
separated from Mexico by a
fence
U.S. States as Immigrant Destinations
Fig. 3-8: California is the destination of about 25% of all US immigrants; another
25% go to New York and New Jersey. Other important destinations
include Florida, Texas, and Illinois.
What are the “US gateway” states?
Guest Workers
Migrants allowed into a country to fill a labor need,
assuming the workers will go “home” once the
labor need subsides
 Have short term work visas
 Send remittances to home country
Guest
Workers in
Europe
Fig. 3-9: Guest workers emigrate mainly from Eastern Europe and North Africa to work in
the wealthier countries of Western Europe.
Global Remittances
http://www.economist.com/node/21553458/print
Turkish Kebab Stand in
Germany
Refugees
People who flee across an international boundary because
of a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of
race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social
group, or political opinion
Regions of Dislocation
• Subsaharan Africa
• North Africa and Southwest Asia
• South Asia
• Southeast Asia
• Europe
The Sudan –
Fighting in the Darfur region of the Sudan has generated thousands of
refugees. In eastern Chad, the Iridimi refugee camp is home to almost 15,000
refugees from the Darfur province, including the women in this photo.
Refugees: Sources & Destinations
Fig. 3-1: Major source and destination areas of both international and internal refugees.
Hurricane Katrina Migrants
A major natural disaster represents an environmental push factor for forced
migration.
Scene from The Grapes of Wrath
The Dust Bowl in the 1930s led to forced migration from the Great Plains to California
and elsewhere.
Fukashima Japan
How Do Governments Affect
Migration?
• Immigration laws
• U.S. history
– Little restriction
– Quotas by
nationality
– Selective
immigration
Governments Place
Legal Restrictions on Migration
• Immigration laws – laws that restrict or
allow migration of certain groups into a
country.
– Quotas limit the number of migrants from each
region into a country.
– A country uses selective immigration to bar
people with certain backgrounds from entering.
Waves of Immigration
Changing immigration laws, and changing push and pull
factors create waves of immigration.
Post–September 11
Obstacles to Migration
• Immigration policies of host countries
–
–
–
–
U.S. quota laws
Temporary migration for work
Time-contract workers
Economic migrants or refugees?
• Cultural problems living in other
countries
– U.S. attitudes to immigrants
– Attitudes to guest workers