Inclusive Markets and Paradigm Maintenance: Informal Enterprise, Economic Inclusion and Islamic Extremism in Nigeria Kate Meagher London School of Economics Making Growth Inclusive • Market-led dev’t has brought jobless growth, expanding informality and poverty • Rise of more inclusive approaches to development – post-2015 buzzword • Inclusive markets/BoP as solution to unemployment and informality – connect poor into global markets • Dynamics of inclusion create new dynamics of exclusion Considering Inclusive Markets Inclusive Markets: • Poverty as market failure – solution is greater integration of poor into markets • beyond redistribution, aid dependence • Incorporate poor as agents of dev’t • Focus on structural transformation – link business and finance to BoP to create jobs, foster entrepreneurship, financial inclusion New Dynamics of Exclusion • Processes of inclusion selective – selectively engage and reshape institutions, workers, subjectivities Dark side of inclusive markets: • Open up new inequalities between regions, workers, consumers • extractive effects on included; displacement, marginalization, criminalization of those who don’t qualify for inclusion A Tale of Two Nigerias National inclusion: • Inclusive market success story -- MINT – high grwth rates, rising investor engagement • Parallel tale of poverty, illiteracy and Islamic terrorism Inclusion: solution or problem? • exacerbated regional inequality – North: ed. disadvantage, economy gutted by SAP • Fractious, uned. labour force, poor gov’ce – unattractive to investors • Consider dynamics of exclusion unleashed by inclusive markets Methodology • Fieldwork in April 2014 in Kano and Kaduna • 8 common informal activities – stratified into modern, trad., survival • 53 interviews with associations and rank and file • Survey of 187 operators • Core issue: inclusion generating new patterns of competition in IE among those who don’t qualify Contestation over Access to IE • Saturation of informal economy • Nearly 1/3 don’t own own enterprise, esp. survivalists • Avg 12 years in business – absorbed as workers not entrepreneurs • Contestation by state indigenes over access to IE • crowding into activities once dominated by migrants – 55% indigenes • Resentment against entry of nonindigenes – take jobs, reduce incomes Activity Type Years in This Owner Activity Work for Share of others Indigenes Modern 10.4 73.8 26.2 63.6 Traditional 15.3 79.3 20.7 58.3 Survival 9.6 53.3 46.7 42.6 Average 11.7 68.9 31.1 55.1 Education • High levels of education in IE • 42% seced or higher • In lowly activs, 12% post-sec. • Lucrative activ’s – 61% at least seced; ~20% post sec. • In lucrative activ's, graduates crowding out traditional actors – monopolize market opp’ties New Religious Movements • Rise of fundamentalist Islamic movements -competitive ethos, intolerant • Eroding econ networks between Muslims and Christians • dominating lucrative activ’s, monopolizing associations, marginalizing Christians, other Muslims, poor Internal Dynamics of Exclusion • efforts to promote graduate entrepreneurshp, link informal services into GVCs (transport, butchers) • Ignore existing stresses on N. Nigerian IE • Channelling graduates into IE, upgrading, exacerbates crowding out of traditional operators Beyond Inclusion • National inclusion selective – put investors over needs of poor and unemployed • regional dynamic of marginalization, internal dynamic of competition over scarce informal jobs • Inclusive policies make things worse – indigenes, fundamentalists and graduates crowd out losers -- radicalization • Inclusive markets offer adverse terms and perverse dynamics of exclusion -- another ‘Faustian bargain’?