International Relations Aula 13 Ciencia Politica CGAE FGV-EAESP Kurt von Mettenheim Topics 1) Core Theories of International Relations a) Realism vs Neoliberalism b) International Society/Constructivism c) Bureaucratic Politics 2) International Political Economy 19th Century Global Imbalances 2010 3) Brazilian International Relations 4) Questions for Discussion Core Traditions Realism: Thucydides, Hobbes, Waltz International Politics = Anarchy States Maximize Interests Liberalism: Wilson, UN, Cooperation via Norms & Institutions Better Imperialism & World System: Problem = N-S not E-W Bureaucratic Politics: Foreign Policy NOT Caused by Global Politics, Must Open Black Box Classics of Realism Thucydides: The Peloppynisian War Inter-State Equilibrium via WAR 16th-17th Century: Diplomacy/Permanent Army as Bureaucracy and State 19th Century Equilibrium via Diplomacy 20th Century WWI = end of Multi-Polar Equilibrium via Diplomacy Woodrow Wilson & League of Nations = Liberalism 1945-1990 Cold War & Bi-Polar World 1990-2001 US Hegemony Stability? Multilateralism, UN / EU Transational Politics – norms & construction of institutions (NGO´s, AntiGlobalization) 2001 Terror & Democratization Material From Reading New Handbook of Political Science • Debate 1) Original "idealism" versus "realism.“ • Debate 2) "scientific" approach versus "traditional" approach. • Debate 3) “neo-realism“ versus “globalists / pluralists / structuralists / Neo-Marxists / PostPositivists / interdependence / world society / critical IR Theory” Kenneth Waltz (Realism) versus "bureaucratic politics," "interdependence" and other subnational and transnational concerns Realism Morgenthau (1947) Waltz (1979) : GLOBAL ANARCHY / STATES State strategy = maximizing interests 3 "Hobbesian" motives: 1) Security; 2) Satisfy Domestic Economic Demands (of politically significant domestic population); 3) Enhance international prestige. Core ideas of Realism International system = anarchy & self-help. No single effective central authority nation-state must protect the economic and security interests of its citizens. External environment determines policy. Uncertainty fosters "Hobbesian fear“. Hobbesian Fear If one state belligerent in an anarchic system, then all potentially affected states must either follow a realpolitik strategy in return or be protected by another state. States are in a continuous state of preparedness to use force for either offensive or defensive purposes Government strategy = 1) maximize power (Bull 1977) 2) avoid the development of power elsewhere (Waltz) 3) avoid relationships in which it is obliged to play a subordinate role (Galtung 1964) 4) prevent others from making advances in their relative capabilities (Grieco). Critics of Realism 1) Justifies existing power structure (Peterson 1992); 2) Reifies causality (Ashley 1986); open process can change… 3) Underestimates importance of political discourses (Enloe 1994; Campbell 1992); must justify power legitimacy 4) Underestimates subjective meanings, rules and norms (Hollis and Smith 1990); human behavior set in meaning… 5) “National Interests” too broad, ad hoc concept Complexity and Post-Realism Important questions in international relations: 1) How will different factions inside the opposing country react? NEED EMPIRICAL INFORMATION 2) 2) Will policy strengthen the position of friendly factions in the opposing country? NEED TWO LEVEL GAME MODEL… 3) Will policy be seen as a precedent or sui generis? MARKETING/PUBLIC RELATIONS SHAPES PERCEPTIONS 4) How will public opinion in the opposing country react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE? 5) How will domestic public opinion react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE? 6) How will the decision-maker's own party react? PRO? CONTRA? 7) Will this option effect third parties? 8) Will policy Desired outcome? Core Ideas of Neo-Liberalism The international system is an anarchic, self-help one. The states that comprise it are selfregarding interest-maximizers. Interdependence mitigates conflict by (a) economic interpenetration in terms of international trade and financial flows; (b) nation-states' collective interest in avoiding a major nuclear war; and (c) nation-states' collective interest in avoiding ecological catastrophe. Renovação liberal: Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. 2004 Core Ideas of International Society / Constructionism 1) Cooperation = Mutual Benefit 2) Norms/Values are basis of “regimes” in Policy Spheres Human Rights International Trade GATT, WTO Multinational Enterprises, Code of Conduct “Equator Principles” for sustainable finance Third Tradition in Political Science: Bureaucratic Politics Realism and Liberalism predict policy from international system... Must Open Black Box of Government (via Organizational Theory) Explain Foreign Policy? 1) Agencies? Organizations? Interests? 2) Agenda/actors 3) Meetings & decision making Classic Example: Graham Allison, Essence of Decision Cuban Missile Crisis: Realism / Liberalism wrong... Details of Negotiations = Organizations/Actors/Process... International Political Economy Competing Theories = Liberalism Imperialism World System, Wallerstein Dependent Development, Cardoso & Falleto “Regimes” = Institutions Intl Policy Sectors Desenvolvimento e Dependência na América Latina F.H. Cardoso e E. Falletto • Crítica ao Liberalismo – Economia: Troca, Cepal... – Sociologia: Tradição - Moderno • Crítica ao Marxismo – Críse Econômica e Revolução Sistema Mundial (Immanuel Wallerstein) ECON Sociedade Política ---------------------------------------------------1500 – 1750 Mercantil Extração Colônia 1750 – 1914 Troca Oligarquia 1914 – 1945 Ruptura/ISI Cl. Média 1945 – 1973 Multi´s/IED 1973+ Global Imperialismo Pop-Nacional Nova Burg. Aut. Bur. Dividida Pós-Transição Método Estrutural-Histórico • Centro e Periferia do Sistema Mundial • Foca: Economia – Classes Sociais – Grupos Políticos • Marxismo Metodológico: • Aonde Vem o Dinheiro? • Aonde Vai o Dinheiro? Seqüência de Desenvolvimento Brasileiro • Situações Básicas de Desenvolvimento Dependente: • • • • Enclave Controle Nacional (Acordo de Taubaté) ISI e Populismo Nacional IED e Desenvolvimento Dependente Século 19 de Polanyi Quatro Pilares do Sistema Internacional 1815-1914 • • • • 1) 2) 3) 4) Equilíbrio de Poder entre Estados Padrão Ouro: Câmbio de Moedas Mercado Auto Regulador Estado Liberal-Constitucional (Karl Polanyi, A Grande Transformação...) Auto-Regulação Impedido, 1879-1929 Pressões para ruptura 1920s • • • • Desemprego Tensões entre Classes Desvalorização de Moedas Rivalidades Imperialistas • 1914 começa entre guerras • 1931-1933 acabou padrão ouro International Political Economy, 1945-2000 • Bretton Woods Institutions 1945 IMF, International Monetary Fund IBRD, World Bank • GATT (based on the US Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934). Without Agriculture • Marshall Plan Aid & European Recovery Brazil/Latin America = Private Investment The 1960s. ‘Peaceful Coexistence’ and competition (i) OEEC becomes OECD (ii) New-style GATT ‘rounds’ beginning with the Kennedy Round 1962-67. (iii) Weakening of the dollar— The political economy of pegged exchange- rate systems. (iv) UK fails first attempt to join EEC (1961-63). Gaullism. USSR & E. Europe aping EEC with COMECON (or CMEA). (v) Liberalisation of capital movements. MNCs and international credit. The Eurocurrency markets. Centralbank co-operation. Intl. Political Economy: 1970s (i) Dollar devaluation 1971-73 and the end of the Bretton Woods system (as well as of the first attempt to move to EMU). (ii) North Atlantic inflation and slower growth, aggravated by (iii) The oil shocks, especially 1973-74. OPEC (iv) “the end of the Golden Age” a very North-Atlanticcentred view. Contrast the NICs, especially in E. Asia, as well as Japan. Diffusion of growth. Intl. Political Economy: 1980s (i) The anti-inflation struggle. The second oil shock (1979-80). (ii) The EMS – attempted restoration of regional pegged rates in Europe. (iii) The world debt crisis 1982 ff. Paul Volcker and US monetary leadership. (iv) Development of the new liberalism—Thatcherism and the Washington consensus. (v) Dénouement in the second half of the decade. Inflation overcome. The oil-price collapse 1986. Partial LDC debt write-offs (Baker & Brady Plans). Recovery of international lending flows, and especially of MNC investment. (vi) The collapse of Communism. China. Intl. Political Economy:1990s NAFTA and Regional Trade Pacts Washington Consensus: Privatization and Liberalization Regional Development Accords Regional Development Banks New Democracies, Post-Transition 2000-2006 Displacement of Political Economy by Security and War : 11 September 2001 Reform of United Nations GATT / WTO Negotiations International Order & Rogue Empire Moedas de reserva Dual Deficit Brazil & International Relations Western Alliance WWII + Inter-American Treaties International Organizations UN WTO FTAA Política Externa Brasileira 1) Plataforma Global de Comércio: Escala de Mercado, Posição América do Sul, Alternativa à China/Índia 2) Integração Regional, Mercosul > 3) Agenda de paises emergentes e em desenvolvimento em organizações internacionais (ONU, OMC, OMT, GATT) 4) Histórico de Aliança Hemisférica com EUA SulSul, BRIC… Política Externa Brasileira 5) Princípio de Não Intervenção e resolução pacífica 6) Procura de nova liderança internacional * Irã, Haiti, Conselho de Segurança * Escalada Militar, America Latina http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/ Questions Which theory do you think makes the most reasonable assumptions about 21st Century world politics? Realism? Liberalism? Constructionism/International Society? Qual é a teoria que mais descreve a política exterior brasileira? Liberalismo, Realismo, política burocrática, imperialismo? 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