Asia-Pacific
Mega Trends
Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center
Half Moon Bay, January 2010
Connecting Dots:
Three Mega-Disasters
December 2004: Indian Ocean
Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead
 October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake:
80,000 dead
 May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000
dead

Tectonic Plates in Southern Asia
Kashmir
EURASIA PLATE
Kathmandu
Chengdu
INDIA PLATE
Aceh
Human Change in 40 Years
Certainties/Uncertainties
Near Certainties:




The “rise” of Asia
Demographic
changes
Pressures on
resources and the
environment
New health
challenges
Uncertainties:




Sustainable
development?
Social and political
evolution
International relations
Asia-Pacific role in
addressing global
issues
The Rise/Re-rise of Asia
Share of Gross World Product (PPP)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Other
US
Other
Other
Other
Other
US
Europe
US
US
Europe
50%
40%
30%
Other
US
Europe
Europe
Europe
Asia
20%
10%
US
Asia
Asia
Asia
1913
1970
Europe
Asia
Asia
0%
1820
1870
1990
2006
From “World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 A.D.,” by Angus
Maddison; Asia includes South Asia
Labor Productivity Growth
1993-2003









WORLD: 10.9 percent
Sub-Saharan Africa: -1.5 percent
Middle East: 0.9 percent
Latin America: 1.2 percent
Industrialized economies: 14.9 percent
Transition economies: 25.4 percent
Southeast Asia: 21.6 percent
South Asia: 37.9 percent
East Asia: 75.0 percent
International Labor Organization
Growth of Tertiary Enrollment
(Enrollment Ratios, 1985-2005)
Source: World Bank
USA
Korea
Japan
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
China
Indonesia
India
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Demographic Tectonics
China’s Population in Comparative
Perspective
Fertility Decline
Total Fertility Rate: Babies per Female
7
6
5
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
4
3
2
1
0
East Asia
Southeast Asia South & Central
Asia
East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.
“Flight from Marriage:”
(Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39)
14
25
12
20
10
15
8
6
10
4
5
2
0
0
1970
1990
Indonesia
Thailand
2000
S. Korea
Japan
1970
1990
Jakarta
Hong Kong
2000
Seoul
Bangkok
Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The “Flight from Marriage” in South-East and East Asia
Asia Population
People (millions)
3000
2500
East Asia
2000
S.E. Asia
1500
South and Central
Asia
1000
500
0
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
Year
East-West Center, Future of Population
E
Composition of Population
(Japan)
Growth of Elderly
Percent of Population Over Age 75

India
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
2000
China
2050
S. Korea
Singapore
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
Source: East-West Center, Future of Population, 2002
25
East Asian Urban Areas (Megacities) over 10 million
1950
2008 estimate
Tokyo, 11.3 million
Tokyo, 34.4 million
Jakarta, 21.8 million
Seoul, 20.0 million
Manila, 19.6 million
Osaka, 17.3 million
Shanghai, 14.5 million
Beijing, 12.8 million
Guangzhou, 11.8 million
Shenzhen, 11.7 million
Bangkok, 10.8 million
1975
Tokyo, 26.3 million
Osaka, 14.0 million
Seoul, 12.0 million
Shanghai, 11.4 million
Wikipedia Sources, figures vary
Comparative GDP, 2008
(PPP estimates)
Tokyo, $1,479 billion
 South Korea, $1,342 billion
 Canada, $1,303 billion
 Australia, $795 billion
 Seoul, $291 billion
 Vietnam, $240 billion

Source: Cities, Pricewaterhousecoopers, Countries, IMF
Asia Pacific Disaster Map with Megacities
Beijing
Tokyo
yo
Shanghai
Osaka
Manila
Kolkata
Jakarta
Pacific Disaster
Center Center
Source:
Pacific Disaster
Resource Pressures
Regional Petroleum Deficits
Millions of Barrels per day
30
25
20
Europe
N. America
Asia-Pacific
15
10
5
0
1973
2001
Congressional Research Service
2020
Growth in Energy Use with Income
1980 to 2002
Growth of Auto Production 2007
14
12
10
25
China
20
Japan
US
China
15
8
6
India
10
S
Korea
S Kor
5
4
India
2
0
0
-5
Millions Vehicles Manufactured
Japan
US
Percent Increase over 2006
Source: International Organization of Automobile Manufacturers
China’s Share of . . .

World Population: 20.1 percent

Coal Reserves: 12.6 percent

Oil Reserves: 1.3 percent

Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3 percent
Source: East-West Center, The Future of Energy in Asia-Pacific, 2007
Annual Renewable Fresh Water
Supply
Source:Liquid Assets, 2005, cited in RAND, “One World, One Well”
Water Problem: A Chinese
Perspective
China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006
Growth of Per Capita Meat
Consumption – China, 1980-2007
60
54 kg
50
40
20 kg
30
20
10
0
1980
2007
Source: Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 30 May 2008
Note: For comparison, US per capita consumption about 122 kg
Health Tectonics
Traditional Health Risks (down)
 New infectious diseases, including
HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of
tuberculosis (careful monitoring required)
 Chronic conditions and diseases
associated with aging and life style
changes (up)

Infectious Diseases: A Health
Fault Line?
“Spanish Flu” Pneumonia: 1919
 Asian Flu: 1967
 Bird Flu (Hong Kong): 1997
 SARS: 2003
 Avian Flu: 2004
Poultry Density
Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series
11-Year-Old Children’s Fitness
Japan
Seconds to Run
50 Meters
9.4
Average Soft-Ball
Throw (Meters)
Boys
Girls
9.2
9
35
30
8.8
8.6
25
8.4
20
8.2
1987
2006
15
1987
2006
Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007
Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030
80
151% increase
70
148% increase
60
50
104%
Millions
40
people
30
2000
2030
20
10
0
India
China
Other Asia
Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. “Global
Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030,
Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May 2004. Average global increase 114%.
The Uncertainties
Sustainable development
- Economic models
- Resource impacts
 Domestic evolution
- Social disparities
- Political dynamics
 International relations
 Global leadership

Asia Pacific Current Account Imbalances
(US bn)
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
East Asia
US
2005
2006
2007
2008
423
528.5
588.7
675.8
-771.4
-823.8
-779.4
-796.8
Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, 2007
Gini Co-efficients
0.7
Brazil
0.6
Mexico
0.5
China
Brazil
Mexico
USA
China
Japan
USA
0.4
Japan
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2007
Sources: World Bank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Income Changes China
1995 to 2005
Bottom 10 percent have seen incomes rise
42 percent
 Middle 10 percent have seen incomes rise
115 percent
 Top 10 percent have seen incomes rise
168 percent

Danny Leipziger and Michael Spence, Financial Times, 15 May 2007, p. 11
Environmental Futures
Global Carbon Emissions
Map from The Guardian Datablog
CO2 Emitters Per Capita (tons)
25
20
15
10
5
0
US
Canada
Australia
Japan
China
India
Attitude Survey on Environment
Who Hurts the Environment the Most?
China
%
Americans
40
Chinese
9
Japanese
67
Koreans
64
Indonesians
11
Germans
39
Pew Global Attitude Project, 2008
US
%
22
26
17
19
42
34
Governance Issues and Political
Transitions
Political Systems in Evolution






Recent coups or attempted coups: Thailand,
Philippines, Timor Leste, Fiji, Bangladesh
New democracy: Indonesia
Maturing democracies: South Korea, Taiwan
Significant change may be underway: Malaysia,
Japan
Socialist countries in transition: China, Vietnam
Autocratic regimes: North Korea, Burma, Brunei
Some Geo-Political Issues








Last international war?
Ethno-nationalism (internal/international
dimensions) - Pacific/Atlantic difference
Power Transitions
“Afpak”
Future of Cross-Strait Relations
Future of the Korean Peninsula
Territorial Disputes
Regional Architecture
Mutual Attitudes
Two Main Points:
+ In general, Asians feel “warmer” toward
America than Americans toward Asia
+ In general, positive images of the U.S.
appear to have been declining
Overall Warmth of Americans Toward Asian
Countries and Asians Toward the United
States, 2008/2006
0 (cold) to 100 (hot)
Asians toward US: 61
 US toward Asian countries: 44

Source: Chicago Council of Foreign Relations, 2008. Based on Data from
China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India
US-China Mirrored Perceptions
Source:
Committee of 100, December 2007
S
o
Asian Views of US
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
China
India
Japan
S. Korea
Percent favorable
2000* 2002 2003
%
%
%
23
10
13
75
61
15
-------66
-77
72
-58
52
46
2005
%
23
38
-42
71
---
2007
15
29
27
34
59
61
58
2008
%
19
37
-41
66
50
70
2009
%
16
63
-47
76
59
78
* 2000 trends provided by the Office of Research, U.S. Department of State.
Some data from 1999. Other data from Pew Global Attitudes Project