Daisy World an introduction to systems and equilibria Geological Example: Albedo Feedback Albedo reflected sunlight received sunlight • high albedo: most energy is reflected back into space • low albedo: most energy is absorbed and heats the surface Some Albedo Values (from Table 2-1, Kump et al., 1999) Sand: Grass: Forest: Water (overhead sun): Water (sun near horizon): Fresh snow: Thick cloud: 0.20 – 0.30 0.20 – 0.25 0.05 – 0.10 0.03 – 0.05 0.50 – 0.80 0.80 – 0.85 0.70 – 0.80 Image source: NASA Visible Earth, http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_detail.php?id=4701 Albedo Feedback cont. Surface Temperature Snow Coverage Albedo Albedo Feedback cont. Surface Temperature Snow Coverage Albedo A variation of the Albedo Feedback • how do plants respond to climate ? possible outcomes of feedback loops • Possible choices: – Arrived at stable end state – Never settles down in a stable end state but oscillates – Never reaches any stable end state • What kind of feedback loops would produce these options? Equilibrium States • If system is in equilibrium it will not change unless it is disturbed • two types: stable, unstable Stable Equilibrium • (within limits) system will return to old equilibrium state Unstable Equilibrium • small perturbations will dramatically affect the state of the system What kind of feedback loops tend to produce stable equilibria ? Long-term temperature fluctuations Daisy World • Gaia hypothesis • Earth a self-regulating system • How can it do that without a brain • Daisy World: local processes affect global state of climate Influence of Daisy Growth on Surface Temperature Daisy Coverage negative or positive feedback ? why ? Avg. Surface Temp. Daisy (Albedo) Feedback Influence of Daisy Growth on Surface Temperature Influence of Daisy Growth on Surface Temperature • two modes: – below optimum temperature → positive feedback – above optimum temperature → negative feedback Two Feedback Mechanisms Some Mathematical Conventions • y = f(x) means that y is a function of an independent variable x • mathematicians plot the independent variable on the abscissa (horizontal axis) and the dependent variable on the ordinate (vertical axis) • physicists and other scientists are not always that rigid! Two Feedback Mechanisms How to Solve for Both: Two Equilibrium Points • Both conditions have to be fulfilled • Daisy coverage affects surface temperature • Surface temperature affects daisy coverage • under which conditions is the system in equilibrium? How Does the System Reach Equilibrium? Are both Equilibria Created Equal? • try out a few permutations yourself • is the system always reaching an equilibrium? Two Types of Equilibria External Forcing of the Daisy World System • Forcing: outside influence on the system (e.g., insolation, chemical composition of the climate system etc.) • How does Daisy World respond to external forcings ? How will Insolation changes affect the Daisy World ? Effect of Luminosity on Temperature How does Feedback Affect new Equilibrium Temperature? Temperature change without Daisy feedback ? (number of daisies is constant) Temperature change with Daisy feedback ? (Daisies will spread) How to Quantify Importance of Feedback? Temperature change without Daisy feedback ? (number of daisies is constant) Temperature change with Daisy feedback ? (Daisies will spread) How to Quantify Importance of Feedback? • compare ΔT0 and ΔTeq • feedback factor: f temperature change with feedback temperature change without feedback Teq T0 How will Stability of Equilibria be Affected? Stability of Equilibrium Positions Effects of Daisy Feedback • biological albedo feedback • positive and negative feedback loop • two equilibrium positions (one stable, one unstable) • resulting equilibrium is generally not optimum growth temperature for daisies • presence of daisies lowers planetary temperatures Effects of Daisy Feedback (cont.) • Dampens effects of external forcings • feedback factor f quantifies feedback effect • Stability of equilibria changes