The Next Era of Global
Technological Development
Seminar at the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy
Curtin University WA.
Tuesday June 17th 2014.
Presented by
Mal Bryce, Kelvin Willoughby and Ron Johnston
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
About Continuity, Breakthroughs and
Convergence
•The Mature Phase of the Digital Era.
•The Biological Nexus of Technological
Innovation.
•The Resource Efficiency Era.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Breakthroughs
in
Life Sciences
More
Digital Disruption
The Next
30 years
Resource Efficiency
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Presentation 1
The Mature Phase of the Digital
Era.
Mal Bryce
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
The Digital Revolution
Based on Information Technology and
Telecommunications had its beginnings in the early
1970’s and is expected to extend through to the
2040’s.
The nature and scope of innovation which it has
produced has been unprecedented.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
A “Game Changing”
environment….a wholesale shift for
society and the economy.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
The Digital World & High
Speed Networks.
Online
Business
COMMUNICATION
LOCAL
ENTERTAINMENT
TRANSACTIONS
Internetworked
Community
- virtual
- physical
Online
Community
Groups
INFORMATION
EDUCATION
GLOBAL
Online
Government
COLLABORATION
Online
Householders
6th wave
5th
wave
Waves of
Innovation
1770’s – 2030’s
Nano Technology
Bio Technology
Bio Mimicry
Resource Efficiency
Re Newable Energy
Industrial ecology
Innovation
4th
wave
3rd
wave
2nd
wave
1st
wave
Steam Power
And Railroads
Steel
Electricity
Chemicals
Heavy Engineering
Oil
Automobiles
Petrochemicals
Aviation
Space
Digital Networks
Software
Information
Technology
Telecommunications
Iron
Water power
Mechanisation
Textiles
1771
1830
1870’s
1920’s
1971
2030’s
Degree of diffusion of the technological revolution
Classic Phases of the ICT Revolution
1970’s – 2040’s
INSTALLATION
PERIOD
Irruption
Turning
point
Frenzy
DEPLOYMENT
PERIOD
Synergy
Maturity
Next
big-bang
big-bang
1971
1987
2008-12
20??
20??
Time
50 – 60 YEARS
SOURCE: Perez, “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”
Digital Disruption is widespread.
• Almost everything we do is impacted.
• The nature of consumption,
competition, and work has changed.
• The balance of power between
organizations and individuals has
changed.
• Major new competitive pressure has
arrived.
• Disruption varies across sectors and
geography.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
The Age of High Speed Networks
mean:
More people, more data,
more locations “Online”
and faster outcomes
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Globally from 2 Billion, (in 2010)
the number of people online will
double and treble quickly.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Drivers for Further Digital
Disruption
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Rollout of High Speed Networks
• Infrastructure for Gigabits and 100’s of Megabits
• National retrofit for the copper telephone network.
• The best possible mix of fibre glass, wireless and
satellite.
• Infrastructure for global competitiveness.
Eg:
Telstra to increase its data traffic One
Thousand fold between 2011 and 2020
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Exponential Growth of Social Media.
• Customer service becomes customer intimacy
• By 2012 > 1billion people per day were accessing
Facebook.
• Facebook is now second only to Google for Internet
activity.
• Growth Rate for Twitter is greater than Facebook.
• Customer profiling is ubiquitous.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Mobility of devices, apps and data
services
• Smart phones and tablets are the basis of a mobility
revolution.
• The Age of the App has arrived
•
•
•
•
Cheap to access
Meet specific needs
Keep track of their owners
Generate massive volumes of data.
• Globally (by 2013) 30% of all mobile phones were smart
phones.
• One in seven online searches is now from a mobile device.
• Wearable computers for enhanced reality are next.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Big Data and Analytics
• Unprecedented volumes of data are now generated
daily on a global basis.
• Big Data allows large volumes of data to be analysed
to identify trends and patterns.
• Current data is now cross referenced with previous
data.
• Supercomputing handles the mountain of data.
• Data literate people are in increasing demand.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Devolution of Cloud Computing
• Origins in the surplus capacity of the Big Five.
• Outsourcing takes over from traditional “in-house” IT
Infrastructure.
• Expected to be a Trillion Dollar business activity by 2015’
• Delivers new services, cost reductions and support for
remote working patterns.
• Provides superior security services.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
The Internet of Things
• 26 Billion THINGS connected to the Net by 2020 ??
(Gartner Group)
• Objects, animals and humans automatically transferring
data.
• Mountains of data will result.
• Billions of sensors and transponders interacting with;
• the internal state of things
• the external environment.
• Future concerns about data privacy. Sovereignty and
security.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
The Maturity of eCommerce
• Basic commercial processes remain the same.
Technology has changed.
• By 2013 eCommerce (globally) reached a turnover >
$1.3 Trillion.
• Now infinite options to buy goods and services online.
• Key Message: Adapt or Disappear.
• Unsolicited and targeted advertising push is of growing
concern.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
A Wave of New Content:
entertainment, visualisation and video
collaboration
•
•
•
•
•
Telepresence, video collaboration and 3D come of age.
Dramatic changes for traditional media.
Smart Glasses leaders in wearable computers ?
Spontaneous citizen Video footage enters the arena.
Since the mid 90’s Online Gaming has become a $70
Billion industry activity.
• Consumers looking for interactive involvement in
entertainment.
• Migration of artists and audiences to new media
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Cyber Security
•
•
•
•
•
•
A new playground for digitally savvy criminals.
Vulnerability of Online services.
Limitations of national “Statute Law”
Identity theft and the need for certification.
New generation of end user “security services”.
Cyber warfare and new threats to national security.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Conclusions
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Numerous Technologies and
Disciplines have converged with
Informatics eg:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bioinformatics
Geoinformatics
Hydroinformatics
Business informatics
Engineering informatics
Environmental informatics
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
High Speed Networks and the
new digital services have
become basic sinews of our
economy.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
The Links are now undeniable
Connectivity
Creativity
Innovation
Productivity
PROSPERITY
Breakthroughs
in
Life Sciences
More
Digital Disruption
The Next
30 years
Resource Efficiency
Era
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Presentation 2
The Biological Nexus of Technological
Innovation.
Kelvin Willoughby
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
For One Baby, Life Begins
with Genome Revealed
How a California father made an end run around
medicine to decode his son’s DNA.
Antonio Regalado, MIT Technology Review, June 13, 2014
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/527936/for-one-baby-life-begins-with-genome-revealed/
An infant delivered last week in California appears to be the
first healthy person ever born in the U.S. with his entire
genetic makeup deciphered in advance.
His father, Razib Khan, is a graduate student and
professional blogger on genetics who says he worked out a
rough draft of his son’s genome early this year in a do-ityourself fashion after managing to obtain a tissue sample
from the placenta of the unborn baby during the second
trimester.
… The idea of sequencing fetuses is extremely new and
sensitive. Khan, who had no real medical reason to learn his
son’s DNA code, says sequencing his son in utero “was
more cool than practical.” He did it to show where
technology is headed and because he likes “pushing the
envelope.”
Myriad Genetics Posts Key
myPath Melanoma Data Analyst Blog
NASDAQ --- Zacks.com, June 03, 2014
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/-myriad-genetics-posts-key-mypath-melanoma-data-analyst-blog-cm358611/
Myriad Genetics, Inc. ( MYGN ) reported results from a
crucial clinical validation study of its myPath Melanoma test
at the 2014 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)
annual meeting in Chicago. The Myriad myPath Melanoma
test is a clinically validated gene expression molecular test
that has been designed to differentiate malignant melanoma
from benign skin lesions, with a high level of accuracy. With
certain melanomas imitating benign skin lesions, it becomes
quite difficult for clinicians to diagnose melanoma in patients
accurately. In such situations, Myriad myPath Melanoma
comes of help as it has the ability to discriminate malignant
melanoma from benign skin lesions, as has been observed
in the validation study. The test differentiates between the
two diseases by using traditional dermatopathology as a
gold standard. A quick and accurate diagnosis of potentially
fatal melanoma is now possible, thanks to Myriad myPath
Melanoma.
U.S. organizations signing:
American Farm Bureau
Federation; National
Association of Wheat
Growers; National Farmers
Union; North American Millers'
Association and U.S. Wheat
Associates.
Canadian signatories:
Canadian National Millers
Association; Cereals Canada;
Grain Farmers of Ontario;
Grain Growers of Canada and
Western Canadian Wheat
Growers Association.
Australian signatories:
AgForce Queensland; Grain
Growers Limited; Grain
Producers Australia; Grain
Producers SA; Pastoral and
Graziers Association of
Western Australia and
Victorian Farmers Federations
Grains Group.
Metabolix biopolymers are based on polyhydroxyalkanoate polymers (PHAs) and are
made by fermentation using renewable carbon based feedstocks, making them 100%
biobased in neat form. Metabolix has developed leading technology for production of
a broad range of PHA biopolymers as evidenced by an industry leading intellectual
property portfolio and continues to innovate further to expand the range of
performance and production economics of our PHA biopolymers.
© Prof. Kelvin W. Willoughby, 2005.
© Prof. Kelvin W. Willoughby, 2005.
www.bio.org
An approach to categorizing
biology-related technologies
Technologies categorized by the
types of MEANS they incorporate
Technologies categorized by the
types of ENDS they serve
Fields of Bioscience Technology
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate
Biotechnology
Bioscience
Technology
Medical
Technology
Bio-systems
Technology
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related ENDS they serve
Fields of Bioscience Technology
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate
Biotechnology
“Life Sciences”
Medical
Technology
Bio-systems
Technology
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related ENDS they serve
2006 Professor Kelvin W. Willoughby.
Fields of Bioscience Technology
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate
Biotechnology
Medical
Devices
Sub-categorized by the
types of bio-related
means they incorporate
Bioscience
Technology
Medical
Technology
Bio-systems
Technology
Agri-bio
Technology
Sub-categorized by
the types of bio-related
applications they express
Bio-industrial
Technology
Pharmaceuticals
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related ENDS they serve
Fields of Bioscience Technology
Illustrative
Examples
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related MEANS they incorporate
Molecular biology,
genomics,
proteomics
Monoclonal antibody
based diagnostics
Bio-pharmaceuticals
Medical
Devices
Pharmaceuticals (traditional)
Drug delivery devices,
Cardiac rhythm devices
Biotechnology
Pharmacologically
active GMOs
Bioscience
Technology
Medical
Technology
Agri-biotech
Fermentation,
Industrial
bioprocessing,
Food
processing.
Agri-bio
Technology
Bio-systems
Technology
Bio-security
technologies
Bio-sensors
Bio-industrial
Technology
Pharmaceuticals
Diagnostic devices,
Medical biosensors
(selections only)
Nutritionally
enhanced food
“Nutraceuticals”
Veterinary
technologies
Bio-fuels / Bio-energy
Bio-materials
Bio-fibers
Technologies categorized by the
types of bio-related ENDS they serve
“Bio” business …
Today’s advances leverage the accomplishments of
previous ages, products, and technologies.
1800s
1900s
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2025
U.S. Bioscience and Total Private Sector Employment, 2001-10, Indexed (2001 = 100)
Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience
Industry Development Report (Battelle &
Biotechnology Industry Organization, 2012)
Employment Trends in the Biosciences and Other Knowledge-intensive Industries, 2001-10
Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience
Industry Development Report (Battelle &
Biotechnology Industry Organization, 2012)
Change in Real Average Annual Wages, United States, 2001-10
Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry
Development Report (Battelle & Biotechnology
Industry Organization, 2012)
U.S. Employment by Bioscience Subsector, 2007-10
Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry
Development Report (Battelle & Biotechnology
Industry Organization, 2012)
Minnesota Life Science Community
Minnesota
Industries
Medical
Devices
Infrastructure
Component/Service
Suppliers
Bioinformatics &
Systems
Biology
Int’l Business
Support Center
Bioengineering &
Clinical Capabilities
Acceleration/
Incubation
Education
Food
Academic
Tech Transfer
v.19jan09
(Biological &
Chemical)
NanoTech &
Materials
Science
Animal
Health
Funding
Foundational
Capabilities
Catalysis &
Synthesis
Skilled Workforce
Enabling
Knowledge
Clusters
Leadership Talent
Commercialization
Catalysts
Biologics/
Biopharma
Renewable
Materials
Renewable
Energy
Genomics,
Proteomics & High
Throughput
Biology
Policy
Imaging /
Navigation
Employment, Biobusiness Technology Industries
2007
2002
1997
23,893
Wisconsin
19,682
19,455
24,653
Washington
26,325
19,423
14,389
Utah
16,650
14,012
29,963
Ohio
29,608
25,008
45,706
North Carolina
41,318
26,849
60,930
New York
81,898
72,405
75,274
New Jersey
79,893
56,524
62,854
Massachusetts
54,676
41,835
10,796
Iowa
10,601
8,545
217,182
California
228,336
152,656
34,422
Minnesota
27,992
28,889
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Enterprise Density Indices, Biobusiness Technology Industries
Employment, Biobusiness Technology Industries
2007
2002
1997
2007
2002
1997
23,893
Wisconsin
1.00
Wisconsin
19,682
0.81
0.80
19,455
1.46
24,653
Washington
Washington
26,325
1.14
1.15
19,423
1.21
14,389
Utah
Utah
16,650
1.29
1.26
14,012
0.90
29,963
Ohio
Ohio
29,608
0.85
0.81
25,008
1.00
45,706
North Carolina
North Carolina
41,318
0.93
0.86
26,849
0.85
60,930
New York
New York
81,898
0.99
1.07
72,405
1.27
75,274
New Jersey
New Jersey
79,893
1.25
1.27
56,524
1.51
62,854
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
54,676
1.25
1.25
41,835
0.87
10,796
Iowa
Iowa
10,601
0.71
8,545
1.37
217,182
California
California
228,336
1.01
34,422
Minnesota
27,992
0.85
0.88
28,889
0
1.40
1.42
152,656
Minnesota
0.74
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Percentage Change in Employment Density Indices, 1997-2002
Biobusiness Technology Industries
Wisconsin-18.8%
5.8%
Washington
Utah -13.2%
Ohio
-2.7%
23.1%
North Carolina
New York -13.0%
8.0%
New Jersey
Massachusetts
-0.3%
Iowa
-2.3%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
-11.5%
Washington
Utah
-25.6%
0.0%
24.3%
Wisconsin
10.6%
California
Minnesota
Percentage Change in Employment Density Indices, 2002-2007
Biobusiness Technology Industries
-22.7%
9.5%
Ohio
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
10.3%
North Carolina
New York
-19.8%
New Jersey
-1.1%
23.3%
Massachusetts
5.7%
Iowa
California
-4.0%
26.3%
Minnesota
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Modes of Activity, Bioscience Technology Firms, New York, Late 1990s
Source: Willoughby
Percentage of firms in the industry engaged significantly in each function.
Percentage of firms in the industry engaged significantly in each function.
Modes of Activity,
Bioscience
Percentage
of Utah's
bioscienceTechnology
technology Firms,
firms engaged in production
research, 1998
Utah, Late or
1990s
90%
89%
80%
70%
71%
67%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Production
Source: Willoughby
Research & Production
development
and R&D
Percentage of firms in the industry engaged significantly in each function.
Variations in Modes of Activity Between Industry Sectors, Bioscience Technology Firms
New York, Late 1990s
Source: Willoughby
Technological Diversification by Bioscience-Technology Firms
New York State, Late 1990s
Primary Field of
Technology
% of Population
Number of Firms in
Active in Other
Population
Fields of BioscienceTechnology
% of "C" Active in
Biotechnology
Biotechnology
140
57%
100%
Pharmaceuticals
74
55%
85%
Medical Devices
109
21%
91%
Life-Systems
Technology
40
88%
80%
Source: Willoughby
Source: Willoughby
Source: Willoughby
“Take Away” Themes
• Biology is an emerging nexus zone of technological
innovation.
• The business of bioscience-technology plays an
increasingly significant role the wider economy and in
a range of other industries.
• The business of bioscience-technology may provide
great leverage for regional wealth generation.
• Communities compete with one another to become
bio-business zones.
• Successful bioscience-technology firms tend to be
multi-functional, interdisciplinary, and communicative.
Presentation 3
The Resource Efficiency Era: Doing
so much more with Less
Ron Johnston
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Our Understanding of Technology
1. Anything that is in the world when you are born
is a natural part of the way the world works
2. Anything that is invented between when you are
fifteen and forty is new, exciting and you can
probably get a career out of it
3. Anything invented after you are forty is against
the natural order of things
Douglas Adams
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
The Challenge of Predicting
Technology and its Effects
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bell’s talking telegraph only creates interest in scientific circles; as a toy it is
beautiful; but its commercial value will be limited (Elisha Gray, 1876)
The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty (Michigan Bank manager to
Henry Ford, 1908)
Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? (Jack Warner, 1930)
There is a world market for about five computers (Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943)
Guitar music is on the way out (Decca Records rejecting Beatles, 1962)
If anything will remain unchanged, it is the role of women (David Riesman, 1967)
Before the year 2000 is over, the first child will have been born on the moon
(Werner von Braun, 1972)
The Internet is full. Go away. (T-shirt, 1995)
No-one will buy anything over the Web (Newsweek, 1995)
Spam will be gone within two years (Bill Gates, 2004)
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Predicting Technology and its Effects –
Technological Trends and National Policy
(1937)
• Needs focussed, identified thirteen key technologies within
a 15-20 year time horizon
• Identified predicted uses, market timing and impact, and
social implications
• Television, facsimile transmission, air conditioning,
mechanical cotton picker, synthetic rubber – essentially
correct on all counts
• Cotton/wool substitute and photo-electric eye – optimistic
timing, different form and uses
• Steep flight aircraft, prefabricated housing, automobile
trailers, tray agriculture, gasoline from coal - essentially
wrong on all counts
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Our Challenge
(2014)
• Global population growth – 2.5B in 1943, 7.2B today,
8.3-10.9 B by 2050
• 2.5B people in China, India and other developing
counties will enter the ‘middle class’ by 2030
• Increased demand on already constrained resources of
food, water, energy and minerals
• Non-sustainability of many current industrial practices,
and the growing levels of pollution and environmental
degradation
• Climate change
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Our Opportunity
(2014)
• The need to achieve a Factor Ten increase in the efficiency
of resource use will be a major driver of economic activity in
the next 20 years.
• Factor Ten is the radical idea that humanity must reduce
resource turnover by 90 percent on a global scale within the
next 30 to 50 years.
• To achieve dematerialisation, within the next generation
human energy use must decrease by a factor of 10 while
resource productivity and efficiency must increase by a
factor of 10.
• This will lead to transformation of resource dependency and
advantage, the creation of a new technological landscape
and shifts in the global factors of production.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Sources of Factor Ten Productivity Growth
•
•
•
•
Substitution – lighter stronger, cheaper, lower
Waste reduction
Circularity – closed-loop use of resources
Optimisation – predictive and real-time analytics to
reduce resource requirements and increase asset
use
• Virtualisation – resources as a service
Heck and Rogers, Resource Revolution, Harcourt, 2014
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Case Study – Transport
Current massive inefficiencies in car-based transport
 Usage - 95% of time unused
 Fuel consumption – 86% of fuel never reaches the wheels
 Average occupancy – 1.6 people
 Motorways operating at peak capacity are less than 10% covered by
cars
 Peak capacity is achieved only 4-5% of the day
Opportunities
 Car sharing
 Smart roads
 New fuels - electric
 Efficient batteries
 3-D printed manufacture
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Case Study – Smart Agriculture
• Networks of low-cost sensors, actuators and wireless networks for data
collection and process monitoring of crops and livestock
• Robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence used to
automate tasks, such as harvesting fruit and controlling weeds and pests
• Vehicles that can navigate and operate with reduced or no human control
to herd livestock and harvest crops
• The simulation of real-time agricultural processes using data and
algorithms
• Inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices with high-speed
internet connectivity to the farmer in the field
• Intelligent software that can perform farm planning tasks, and support
decision-making and optimize large-scale production processes.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation
Case Study – and Smart Food
• Smart packaging to enhance life and detect breakdown
• Interactive labelling to advise on nutrition, energy load, etc
• Food tracking and management systems to minimise
wastage
• Decentralised and localised food production (vertical
gardens)
Australian Centre for Innovation
Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation