Lecture NATIONAL INCOME- CONCEPTS MEASUREMENT 1 What is income? 2 Income is the money earn or paid as a reward for the resources owned. For example: A worker earn income in the form of monthly payment. 3 Instead, What is National Income? 4 National Income is defined as: the total value of final outputs which comprises of goods and services produced by a country for a particular period of time, usually a year. 5 Tucker, defined national income as: total income earned by resources owners, that is: rents, wages, interest and profit. 6 National Income: is the total amount of money that factors of production earned during a year. This includes mainly payments of: wages, rents, profits and interest of capital. 7 NATIONAL INCOME = NATIONAL PRODUCT = NATIONAL EXPENDITURE (NI = NP =NE) 8 Or NI = National Product (NP) The national product refers to the value of output produced by an economy during the course of a year. Or NI = NP = National Expenditure refers to the value of money spent on goods and services in the economy in a year. 9 Factor Market Product Market Factor services Goods & services Real Flow Factor Owners Consumers Firm Money Flow Factor Income Cost Revenue Expenditure The flow of economic activities in a 2-sector economy GDP and GNP GDP = Gross Domestic Product, is the value of all final goods and services produced by all sectors of the economy the citizens or foreign sectors within a country. GNP = Gross National Product, is the value of all final goods and services produced by all citizens of a country (within a country or abroad). 11 Final Goods and Services The term final goods and services refers to goods and services produced for final use. Intermediate goods are goods produced by one firm for use in further processing by another firm. Real GNP & Nominal GNP & Per capita GNP Real GNP=(Nominal GNP/GNP Deflator)*100 Per capita GNP = GNP / Population size Value Added Value added is the difference between the value of goods as they leave a stage of production and the cost of the goods as they entered that stage. – In calculating GDP, we can either sum up the value added at each stage of production, or we can take the value of final sales. We do not use the value of total sales in an economy to measure how much output has been produced. Value Added Value Added in the Production of a Gallon of Gasoline (Hypothetical Numbers) STAGE OF PRODUCTION (1) Oil drilling VALUE OF SALES VALUE ADDED $ .50 $ .50 (2) Refining .65 .15 (3) Shipping .80 .15 1.00 .20 (4) Retail sale Total value added $ 1.0 0 Exclusions from GDP GDP ignores all transactions in which money or goods change hands but in which no new goods and services are produced. GDP Versus GNP GDP is the value of output produced by factors of production located within a country. Output produced by a country’s citizens, regardless of where the output is produced, is measured by gross national product (GNP). CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME Gross National Product: It is the total measure of the flow of goods and services at market value resulting from current production during a year in a country, including net income from abroad. GNP at Market Prices: When the total output produced in one year is multiplied by their market prices prevalent during that year in a country, plus net income from abroad, it is called GNP at Market Prices. GNP at Factor Cost: It is the sum of the money value of the income accruing to the various factors of production in one year in a country. GNP at Factor Cost = GNP at market prices – Indirect Taxes + Subsidies. CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME Net National Product (NNP): NNP is GNP net of depreciation. NNP = GNP – Depreciation. NNP at Market Prices: Net value of final goods and services evaluated at market prices: NNP at Market Prices = GNP at Market Price – Depreciation. NNP at Factor Cost: Net output evaluated at factor prices. NNP at Factor Cost = NNP at Market Prices – Indirect Taxes + Subsidies (or) = GNP at Market Prices – Depreciation – Indirect taxes + CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME Domestic Income or Product: Income generated or earned by the factors of production within the country from its own resources is called domestic income or domestic product. Domestic Income = National Income – Net Income earned from abroad. Personal Income: Personal Income is the total income received by the individuals of a country from all sources before direct taxes. Personal Income = National Income – Undistributed Corporate Profits – Profit Taxes – Social Security Contributions + Transfer Payments + Interest on Public Debt. CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME Disposable Income: income that accrues after direct taxes have actually been paid. Disposable Income = National Income – Business Savings – Indirect taxes plus Subsidies – Direct Taxes on Persons – Direct Taxes on Business – Social Security Payments + Transfer Payments + Net Income from abroad. Real Income: Real income is national income expressed in terms of a general level of prices of a particular year taken as base. Real NNP = Current Year NNP x Base year Index / Current Year Index. Per Capital Income: The average income of the people of a country in a particular year is called per capital income for that year. Per capita income = national income / population. Real per capita income = real national income / population. CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME Nominal GDP – Value of output measured at actual prices (current rupee output) – Does not correct for inflation Nominal GDP = Current year Quantities x Current year Prices Real GDP – Value of output based on prices of some base period (“constant” rupee output) – eliminates effect of inflation Real GDP = Current year Quantities x Base year Prices GDP Deflator = Nominal GDP x 100 Real GDP CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME Nominal GDP Real GDP 1992 (base year) 1994 127 127 160 143 CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME GDP Deflator = Nominal GDP • 100 Real GDP 1992 GDP Deflator = 127• 100 = 100.0 127 1994 GDP Deflator = 160 • 100 = 111.9 143 CONCEPTS OF NATIONAL INCOME Change in GDP Deflator (Inflation) from 1992 to 1994: = (1994 Deflator - 1992 Deflator) • 100 1992 Deflator = (111.9 - 100.0) • 100 = 11.9% 100.0 PRICE INDEX A price index (plural: “price indices” or “price indexes”) is a normalized average (typically a weighted average) of prices for a given class of goods or services in a given region, during a given interval of time. It is a statistic designed to help to compare how these prices, taken as a whole, differ between time periods or geographical locations. Price indices have several potential uses. For particularly broad indices, the index can be said to measure the economy's price level or a cost of living. More narrow price indices can help producers with business plans and pricing. Sometimes, they can be useful in helping to guide investment. Some notable price indices include: Consumer price index Producer price index GDP deflator Consumer Price Index A consumer price index (CPI) is a measure estimating the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. A consumer price index measures a price change for a constant market basket of goods and services from one period to the next within the same area (city, region, or nation). It is a price index determined by measuring the price of a standard group of goods meant to represent the typical market basket of a typical urban consumer. Producer Price Index A Producer Price Index (PPI) measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is one of several price indices. Its importance is being undermined by the steady decline in manufactured goods as a share of spending. The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. GDP Deflator The GDP deflator (implicit price deflator for GDP) is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy. In most systems of national accounts the GDP deflator measures the ratio of nominal (or current-price) GDP to the real (or chain volume) measure of GDP. The formula used to calculate the deflator is: Dividing the nominal GDP by the GDP deflator and multiplying it by 100 would then give the figure for real GDP, hence deflating the nominal GDP into a real measure. The GDP deflator is utilized as a measure of shifts in the prices of goods and services that are produced in a given country. It is understood that the GDP deflator can help provide a more accurate picture of the current status of the gross domestic product within the country. Because the GDP deflator is understood to be an example of an implicit price deflator for GDP, economists consider calculating this economic indicator as an essential component in ascertaining the current strength or weakness of the country’s economy. Circular Flow of Income Model: The basic circular flow model provides a general picture of the interactions in terms of : income, output and expenditure among all sectors in an economy. 31 Circular Flow of Income Economic Models 3 types: A 2-sector model of circular flow - Comprises of ‘Households’ and ‘Firms’ sectors A 3-sector model of circular flow - Comprises of ‘Households’ , ‘Firms’ and ‘Government’ sectors A 4-sector model of circular flow - Comprises of ‘Households’, ‘Firms’, ‘Government’ and ‘Foreign’ sectors 32 The 2-sector circular flow of national income and expenditure Y = C+I Expenditure, C on goods & services HOUSEHOLDS FIRMS Income,Y Wages, rent, interest, profit Factor payment Assumptions in a 2 – sector Circular Flow model All income received by households will entirely be spend on consumption. The households in the market will entirely purchase all goods and services produced by firms. Therefore, total income = total expenditure = total output 34 The 3 sector circular flow of national income and expenditure Y = C+I+G Net Taxes Net Taxes G. Expenditure G. Expenditure GOVERNMENT Expenditure, C Financial Institutions FIRMS HOUSEHOLDS Income,Y 35 Assumptions in a 3–sector Circular Flow model C: households is assumed to spent only a portion of their income on consumption. Part of it as savings in financial institutions and for paying taxes. I: Investors are getting loans for capital investment thus produced goods and services in an economy. G: Government expenditure will be made based on tax revenue collected. t: when government sector is included in the model; tax revenue (t) will be collected (from households – personal income tax, and from firms – corporate income tax). 36 The concept of disposable income The household income (Y) that can be spent by households will now be lesser after deducting the tax portion (t) paid to government. It is now called as: disposable income (Yd). Yd = Y – t. and Disposable NI = NI – t. 37 The 4-sector circular flow of national income and expenditure Net Taxes Net Taxes G. Expenditure G. Expenditure GOVERNMENT Expenditure, C Financial Institutions HOUSEHOLDS Income,Y Y = C+I+G+(X-M) FIRMS FOREIGNERS Assumptions in a 4 –sector Circular Flow model Households now supply resources to both domestic and foreign markets. Households also consume both local and imported goods. Firms purchased capital goods and engaged foreign workers from abroad to help them produce more new goods and services. They also exports goods and services produced to abroad or overseas. Government involves either directly or indirectly with foreign sector. They may import as well as exports goods and services to abroad. 39 Methods of Measuring National Income NI can be measured using 3 common approach: a) Income approach b) Output approach c) Expenditure approach Irrespective of which approach used in calculating NI, will give us the same value 40 i) INCOME APPROACH National Income is the total money values of all incomes received by productive persons and enterprises in the country during the year. It is the total income of all factors of production including the income of self-employed person, labourers, capital and land (L,L,K,E) 41 “Transfer Payment” should not be included in calculating NI to avoid double counting problem. Transfer payment refers to income received without any direct contribution to the production of goods and services. is simply transferred from one group or people to another; without the recipients adding any value to production or volume of goods and services in the country. 42 e.g; Transfer Payment Pensions Welfare benefits Scholarships Unemployment benefits Sale of a second-hand goods e.g. an existing house Allowances to housewife Interest on national debt 43 Example1: En. Ahmad previously was a self-employed man with an income of RM1, 500. He later quit from business become an employee of a manufacturing company and earn a salary of RM3, 200 per annum. In closing down his business, he had to dismiss two assistants, each previously receiving a salary of RM700 and RM800 respectively. Each of the assistants subsequently now received social security benefits (unemployment benefit) worth RM300 per month. What is the net change in national income? The change in national income as a result of this was: Previously self-employed RM1, 500 Presently employed + RM3, 200 Dismissal of 2 assistants RM1, 500 __________ Net Increase of NI is: + RM 200 Social security benefit is an example of transfer payment, 44 so is not included in the calculation of national income. Total Domestic vs Total National Income Total Domestic Income is the total income earned within a territorial or geographic boundary. It includes income earned by its citizens as well as its non-citizens i.e. foreign workers residing or working in the country. Total National Income is the total income earned by citizens of the country irrespective whether the citizens reside / working in the country or outside the country (abroad). It will exclude all income earned by foreign workers in the country. 45 Example 2: Given the following data, find the national income of country XYZ; Domestic Income Rs 800m Income paid abroad Rs200m Income received from abroad Rs 180m Answer: The national income of country XYZ is as follows: Rs800m 200m + 180m = Rs 780m 46 Personal Income vs Personal Disposable Income Personal Income is the gross receipt of income regardless of its source. It can come from productive and non-productive sources (transfer payment). And minus the contribution to Employees Provident Fund (EPF). Thus it is totally different from gross earning of factor income (GDI or GNI). Personal Disposable Income is gross personal income less by the personal income tax paid. 47 Income Approach The components of this approach include: Wages and salaries Interest and dividends Rent and imputed rent Profits: distributed and undistributed profits, income of self-employed = Gross Domestic Income (at factor cost) Income paid abroad + Income received from abroad = Gross National Income Depreciation or capital consumption = Net National Income (OR NATIONAL INCOME) Rs xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx XXXX xxx xxx XXXX xxx XXXX 48 ii) OUTPUT APPROACH Also known as Product Approach. National Income (=GNP) is equivalent to the money value of all goods and services produced by all sectors in the country during a year. 49 The problem of double counting: To avoid double counting, we only sum-up all the “value-added” of each sectors or at each stage of production to give us the national income value. 50 Value-added concept To avoid double counting, calculation must be based on either one of the followings: a) Measure only the total market value of all final goods and services produced in the country. OR b) Calculate national output based on the value added. 51 EXAMPLE: Firm Stage of Production Purchasing Selling Value ____ ________________ Price (RM) Price (RM) Added (RM) A Landowner sells trees 100 100 to sawmill owner B Sawmill owner cut into 100 180 80 timber sheets to furniture manufacturer C furniture manufacturer 180 290 110 turns timber sheets into furniture and sells to retailer D retailer sells furniture to final 290 420 130 consumer TOTAL VALUE 570 990 420 Total value added = Total value of Sales – Cost of intermediate goods = 990 – 570 = 420 The concept of Market Price and Factor Cost In most cases, Market Price (MP) > Factor cost (FC) Market Price = FC + indirect taxes – subsidies OR Factor Cost = MP – indirect taxes + subsidies 53 Output Approach The components are: The total value of final goods and services in the economy or the total sum of “value-added” of all industry or stage of production. = Gross Domestic Product at market price (GDP at mp) Income paid abroad + Income received from abroad = Gross National Product at market price (GNP at mp) Indirect taxes or taxes on expenditure + Subsidies = Gross National Product at factor cost (GNP at fc) Depreciation or capital consumption = Net National Product at factor cost (NNP at fc OR NATIONAL INCOME) RM XXXX xxx xxx XXXX xxx xxx XXXX xxx XXXX 54 iii) EXPENDITURE APPROACH 4 components included here: a) Household or consumer expenditure on consumption goods, (C). b) Firm or producer expenditure of capital goods. Also known as gross investment or gross private capital formation (I). c) Government expenditure on goods and services, excluding transfer payment (G). d) Expenditure on exports and imports (X – M). Y = C + I + G + (X – M) 55 Gross vs Net Investment Gross Investment is the expenditure on new construction, purchase on new equipment and change in stock Net Investment is gross investment minus depreciation of capital. Depreciation (capital consumption) is defined as an allowance that is put aside for machinery wears out and stocks used up due to its obsolete and deteriorated nature after being used for some time. Net Investment = Gross Investment – Depreciation of capital 56 Expenditure Approach The components include; the household expenditure (C), firm expenditure or gross investment (I) and government expenditure (G). + or – change in stock =Total Domestic Expenditure at market price (TDE at mp) + Exports and Imports =Gross Domestic Expenditure at market price (GDE at mp) Income paid abroad + Income received from abroad =Gross National Expenditure at market price (GNE at mp) Indirect taxes + Subsidies =Gross National Expenditure at factor cost (GNE at fc) Depreciation or capital consumption = Net National Expenditure at factor cost (NNE at fc) (OR NATIONAL INCOME) Rs xxx XXXX xxx XXXX xxx xxx XXXX xxx xxx XXXX xxx XXXX 57 Few things to remember: 1) To change from market price to factor cost: minus indirect tax plus subsidies. DIRECT TAXES INDIRECT TAXES Personal Income Tax Expenditure or Business/ Corporate Tax Consumption Tax Custom duties Profit Tax Export Tax Import Tax Tariff Services Tax 58 Few things to remember: To change from Gross to Net value: minus capital consumption. To change from NI to Personal Income (PI): plus transfer payment and any benefits minus any contribution (EPF ) To change from PI to DPI: minus income tax 59 60 Income Approach Given the information: Total wages and salaries received RM million 255,650 Total interest and dividends received 10,000 Total rent and imputed rent 80,880 Gross trading profits from companies 65,500 Total income of self-employed 33,700 Income paid abroad 54,345 Income received from abroad 76,680 Capital consumption Find: i) GDP at factor cost ii) GNP at factor cost iii) NI 445 61 Answer: Income Approach Total wages and salaries received Rs million 255,650 Total interest and dividends received 10,000 Total rent and imputed rent 80,880 Gross trading profits from companies 65,500 Total income of self-employed 33,700 GDI fc (GDP fc) 445,730 Less income paid abroad (54,345) Add income received from abroad 76,680 GNI fc (GNP fc) Less Depreciation on capital consumption NNI fc 468,065 (445) 467,620 62 Output Approach Rs million Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4,296 Mining and quarrying 6,700 Manufacturing 28,965 Construction 15,550 Services 13,220 Net exports 3,000 Appreciation in stock 2,000 Income paid abroad 15,432 Income received from abroad 17,66 Indirect taxes 599 Subsidies 333 Depreciation of capital 1,545 Compute the value for: i) GDP at market price ii) GNP at market price 63 iii) GNP at factor cost iv) NI Answer: Output Approach Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Construction Services Net exports Appreciation in stock GDP mp Less income paid abroad Add income received from abroad GNP mp Less indirect taxes Add subsidies GNP fc Less depreciation NNP fc (NNI) 4,296 6,700 28,965 15,550 13,220 3,000 (2,000) 69,731 (15,432) 17,66 70,965 (599) 333 70,699 (1,545) 69,154 64 Expenditure Approach Total consumer expenditure (C) Gross investment (I) Government expenditure (G) Add exports (X) Less imports (M) Change in stock Net factor Income from abroad Expenditure taxes Subsidies Capital consumption Rs million 50,000 20,000 18,500 9,000 ( 8,565) 1,000 250 870 695 2,750 Given the information above, calculate the values for: i) GDP at market price ii) GNP at market price iii) GNP at factor cost 65 iv) NI Answer: Expenditure Approach Total consumer expenditure (C) Gross investment (I) Government expenditure (G) Add exports (X) Less imports (M) Change in stock GDE mp (GDP mp) Less Income paid abroad Add income received from abroad GNE mp (GNP mp) Less Indirect taxes Add subsidies GNE fc (GNP fc) Less Depreciation NNI fc (NI) RM million 50,000 20,000 18,500 9,000 ( 8,565) 1,000 89,935 (3,700) 3,950 90,185 (870) 695 90,010 (2,750) 66 87,260 Uses of National Income 67 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. 68 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. 69 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. Comparison between two or more countries can be made. 70 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. Comparison between two or more countries can be made. Able to know and analyze the contribution made and performance by each production sector in the economy and thus taken ample step for rectification 71 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. Comparison between two or more countries can be made. Able to know and analyze the contribution made and performance by each production sector in the economy and thus taken ample step for rectification Useful in measuring inequalities in the distribution of income. 72 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. Comparison between two or more countries can be made. Able to know and analyze the contribution made and performance by each production sector in the economy and thus taken ample step for rectification Useful in measuring inequalities in the distribution of income. Useful in revealing the expenditure pattern of a country. 73 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. Comparison between two or more countries can be made. Able to know and analyze the contribution made and performance by each production sector in the economy and thus taken ample step for rectification Useful in measuring inequalities in the distribution of income. Useful in revealing the expenditure pattern of a country. Useful in measuring the level and pattern of investment. 74 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. Comparison between two or more countries can be made. Able to know and analyze the contribution made and performance by each production sector in the economy and thus taken ample step for rectification Useful in measuring inequalities in the distribution of income. Useful in revealing the expenditure pattern of a country. Useful in measuring the level and pattern of investment. Balance of payments pattern. 75 Uses and Importance of National Income Useful in measuring the standard of living of a nation through estimating per capita income of the nation. Time series comparison (year to year). Measuring growth of the economy. Comparison between two or more countries can be made. Able to know and analyze the contribution made and performance by each production sector in the economy and thus taken ample step for rectification Useful in measuring inequalities in the distribution of income. Useful in revealing the expenditure pattern of a country. Useful in measuring the level and pattern of investment. Balance of payments pattern. National income as an indicator of success or failure of national planning. 76 Gross and Net Investment Gross investment is the total amount spent on purchases of new capital and on replacing depreciated capital. Net investment is the change in the stock of capital and equals gross investment minus depreciation. 77 Real GNP: Real GNP = Price Index0 X Nominal GNP1 Price Index1 Nominal GNP is the current value of GNP according to the price in that particular year, in which might has experience a price rise from previous years because of inflation. Real GNP or GDP shows a better value of measurement for comparison purposes, because it has deflate the value from the problem of inflation. 78 The Difference between nominal and real income Nominal Income would be the actual wage or salary that is earned currently. The Nominal Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all the goods and services produced expressed in current prices. 79 The Difference between nominal and real income Nominal Income would be the actual wage or salary that is earned currently. The Nominal Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all the goods and services produced expressed in current prices. Real Income would be the income that has been deducted with the reduction in the “purchasing power” that the wage or salary has in the market place (i.e. rate of inflation is 3%). Real Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all the goods and services produced expressed in the prices of some base year. 80 per capita income is defined as their total personal income divided by the number of people in the country. often used as a measure of the wealth of the population of a nation, particularly in comparison to other nations. usually expressed in terms of a commonly-used international currency such as the Euro or United States dollar. 81 2 major problems in measuring national income i) PRACTICAL PROBLEMS a) Problem of illiteracy b) Problem of expertise c) Problem of inaccessibility d) Lack of sophisticated software machineries. e) Problem of false information 82 ii) CONCEPTUAL PROBLEMS a) Arbitrary definition b) Problems in estimating the value of depreciation, imputed rent, etc. c) Problem of double counting d) Problem of measuring quality 83 THANK YOU 84