GCSE POPULATION
DENSITY AND
DISTRIBUTION
DENSELY
POPULATED
AREA
LOTS OF
PEOPLE PER
SQUARE KM
Physical Factors (Climate, Relief)
• Ideal temperate climate for people to
live in (eg Los Angeles)
• Eg River Nile – has irrigated fertile
land to farm which attract people to it
• Eg Japan – because it is a very small
area so people are squashed into the
country – there is nowhere else to go
 WARM
 ADEQUATE RAIN FOR CROPS
• NOT MOUNTAINOUS – FLAT LAND FOR BUILDING
Social Factors
Eg Nigeria - the birth rate is very high due to
lack of contraceptives. The death rate is also
falling due to improvements in health care.
Eg India because people can’t afford to move
away
Eg China – massive birth rate historically – since
1979 have introduced the “One Child Policy”
Eg Sydney – historically this is where the
prisoners were taken to and a settlement grew up
there
 LOW CRIME RATES
WELFARE STATE – eg get a pension / dole
Economic Factors
Eg Europe – because there is a high standard of
living and so people want to move there
Eg East coast of USA – lots of job opportunities
– eg New York – this is where the former
migrants from Europe headed to NYC
Eg Nigeria – has lots of Oil reserves which
attracts in-migration.
Eg South Africa – the richest African country –
so attracts people to work there
 LOW UNEMPLOYMENT AND LOW INTEREST
RATES
LOTS OF JOBS
SPARSELY
POPULATED
AREA
ONLY A FEW
PEOPLE PER
SQUARE KM
Physical Factors (Climate, Relief)
• EG Alaska – because very cold, inhospitable climate –
including mountainous regions – eg Mount McKinley
• Eg Greenland – 3km thick ice sheet! – hardly any land
that is not covered by ice to grow crops – very very cold!
• Eg Iceland – very cold – lots of glaciers – isolated –
volcano threat
• Eg Ural Mountains of Russia – mountainous – not great
for growing crops
• Eg Saudi Arabian desert – very hot – no water to grow
crops
• Eg Amazon Rainforest – poor quality soils
• TOO COLD – TOO HOT – NO FLAT LAND – POOR
SOILS – TOO ISOLATED
Social Factors

Lack of welfare state – I.e. no pensions given by
government; no job seekers allowance – family looks
after you in old age
High rates of unemployment
High interest rates on loans
Poor quality of life
Poor hospital facilities
Lack of vaccinations – eg for AIDs pandemic
High crime rates – eg armed coups, large criminal
rackets
Economic Factors
• Not many jobs and opportunities
• High taxation
• No income support
• High rates of inflation – ie where money
devalues quickly
• No industry to provide growth
• No support from a distant government – eg
Siberia
Isle of Lewis
Accessibility > only 3 ferries every day to the
mainland of Scotland. 100’s miles from the centre of
Scotland’s population. Very remote.
Relief (shape of land) > quite hilly so not good for
buildings
Drainage > lots of lakes – poor drainage – boggy /
marshy – peat bogs
Climate > Very very wet – experiences full force of
Atlantic gales – warm conditions attract midges!
Resources > Peat is only resource! – poor soils
Employment > few jobs – only fishing, crofting,
making tweed
Services > Stornoway main town – few services
Port Talbot
Accessibility > M4 motorway goes straight through this
area
Relief > mostly a coastal plain lying between highlands of
South Wales and Severn Estuary
Drainage > well drained good for farming
Climate > can be wet but temperatures much warmer than
Isle of Lewis
Resources > Coal , iron ore, limestone all contributed to the
local iron and steel industry which has attracted people for
jobs in the area
Employment > lots of jobs – eg oil refineries (Swansea)
Services > Swansea city nearby – offer a wide range – eg
large hospitals, schools, cinemas etc
Chloropleth Map for Population of Derbyshire
1991
Above 200,000 – eg Derby (218,800)
100,001 to 200,000 – eg Ambervalley (111,900)
80,000 to 100000 – eg High Peak (85,100)
Less than 80,000 – eg Bolsover (70,400)
Colour in the regions of Derbyshire as per Q 4 a and 4b, p71
And Figure 2.11
World Population Distribution
Describe > Asia has 59% of the world’s population.
Europe (CIS) has 16%; the smallest is Oceania with
1%.
Explain > (in Asia) The death rates are slowly falling
due to an increase in health care and vaccinations.
People are living longer. The birth rate is high – there
are 5/6 children per family as there is little
contraception available and implemented. Why
should they have small families when children are
seen as a free labour supply on your farm and will
look after you in old age. Also seen as a sign of
virility (especially in India)
Thomas Malthus:
He said that when population levels rose about that
of food production - 3 “checks” would occur:
1. Wars - eg Somalia 1990s
2. Famine
3. Disease
these checks would bring population levels down
again in line with food production.
Another demographer Boserup - she disagrees
with Malthus (19C) - she says that humans will find
ways of coping through advances in medicine and
technology - eg living on the moon!
DTM
Carry Capacity = The maximum number of people that
can be supported by the available resources. After this
point (C.C.) to 2 theories have been proposed:
1. Malthus – he said that WAR, FAMINE and DISEASE
would result in people dying and the population being
“CHECKED” (or brought back to the carrying capacity
level).
2. Boserup – she said that humans will find the
technology to cope with the ever increasing number of
mouths to feed – example Island of Mauritius
Optimum Population = where there is a healthy balance
between the number of people and available resources
– I.e. there is enough to go around. If this point is
reached a state of OVER-POPULATION is said to
occur – (ie too many people in relation to resources)
Natural Increase
Natural Increase =
Number of Births – Number of Deaths
If the Natural Increase (NI) is positive – the
population will grow in size – eg India. If the natural
increase is negative – the country will shrink in
number – eg Sweden, Italy, Germany.
UK Population Pyramid:
2000 – Birth Rate is stable, death rate is medium – and there are more
females than males in old age.
2025 – Birth Rate decreases and death rate decreases
2050 – Birth rate has fallen again and the death rate is VERY low.
Natural Increase is negative – so the population will decline? The
reason why there are fewer children is because they are expensive
And because more women are pursuing careers and therefore do not
have time for a family.
The government will therefore need to plan for:
•More old peoples homes
•Increase retirement age so they can get more tax from you
•Increase in taxation to pay for old peoples homes and care
•The increase in power of the “grey vote” = the power of the vote of
old people
Levels of Population
The Three Levels of Population
1 – Under Population
This describes the situation where
there are more resources in an
area than the population needs. In
most respects this is a good
situation,
as
populations
can
stockpile resources or sell / donate
resources, but it can mean
resources are underused.
Levels of Population
The Three Levels of Population
2 – Overpopulation
When an area is overpopulated, it
means that there are not enough
resources
to
support
the
population. This may be because
there are too many people or not
enough resources. This can cause
immense difficulties for the people
in that area.
Levels of Population
The Three Levels of Population
2 – Optimum Population
When an area is at optimum
population, it has exactly the right
amount of resources to support its
population. There are no problems
with the population gaining access
to the resources they need, nor are
there problems with resources being
underused.
Population Changes
• The total population of an area depends upon changes
in the natural increase and migration.
• The natural increase (or decrease) is the difference
between the birth rate and the death rate.
• The birth rate is the number of live births in a year
for every 1000 people in the total population.
• The death rate is the number of people in every 1000
who die in a year.
• If the birth rate is higher then the total population
will increase. If the death rate is higher then the
total population will decrease.
Natural Increase – p72
Country
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural Increase
Nigeria
43
13
+30 = therefore the
country is growing
quite rapidly
Mali
50
20
+30 = therefore the
country is growing
quite rapidly
Germany
10
11
-1 = the population is
shrinking
Italy
9
9
0 = the population is
remaining the same or is
said to be stationary
Model 2: The PPM
(Population Pyramid Model)
The PPM - 'Population
Pyramid Model' shows
how dynamic (subject
to change) population
is.
The
model
is
structured
to
show
'snapshots'
of
a
population
at
four
points
during
its
development,
which
are shown as Stages 1
- 4 (A - D). A country
will progress through
the stages.
The DTM Stage 1
Here the Birth Rates (BR) and Death Rates (DR) fluctuate at a high
level giving a small population growth. BR is high because:
1. No birth control or family planning
2. Infant mortality is high so parents have lots of children to
compensate
3. Many children are needed to work on the land as a free labour
supply
4. Children are seen as a sign of virility (matcho)
5. Some religious beliefs (Catholic) discourage use of contraception
The DTM Stage 1
The Death is high because:
1. Disease and plague are rife (eg cholera, typhoid, AIDs)
2. Famine and uncertain food supplies – often encouraged by civil
war (eg Darfur, Sudan 2004)
3. Poor hygiene – no fresh running water, no sewage disposal
4. Little medical science – few doctors and drugs
Eg UK before 1750
Stage 2
Kenya
Stage 2 of DTM
The DR is falling due to:
1. Improved medical facilities and hospitals are
built
2. Vaccinations become slowly available – eg BCG
3. Improvements in food production
4. Improved transport of food, doctors
5. A decrease in infant mortality
NB - Although still no birth control in this period.
(UK 1750-1880)
DTM Stage 3:
BR now falls rapidly, while DR continues to fall slightly to give a slowly
increasing population. (Eg Kerala, India)
The fall in BR is due to:
1. Introduction of family planning – condoms are available, contraceptive pill,
sterilization of men and women, abortion
2. A lower Infant Mortality(IM) rate leads to less pressure on families to have so
many children
3. Increased industrialization means that machines do peoples jobs – so less
people are needed as manual labourers
4. Increased desire for material possessions – aspirations to have a certain car,
holiday, lifestyle – and less emphasis on wanting a family
5. Emancipation of women – VERY IMPORTANT – enabling them to be
educated, follow career paths rather than being solely child-bearers. Also
women choose increasingly to have a career over a family
(UK 1880-1950)
- Sometimes population policies are introduced by governments – to encourage
people to have fewer children – to reduce the Birth Rate – eg China One
Child Policy 1979.
Stage 3
Brazil
DTM Stage 4
Both BR and DR remain low, fluctuating slightly to give a steady population. - Eg
UK today in 2006
DTM Stage 5
It is thought that in stage 5 BR falls below DR to give a declining population (eg
UK 2100) eg Sweden today. This is sometimes called negative natural
increase or population decrease.
Problems with the DTM:
1. Many countries cannot sufficiently develop to get beyond stage 2 – eg Sudan,
Chad, Afghanistan
2. Although the availability of medical care is available in some countries they
still choose to have large families
3. When Western Europe went through stages 3 and 4 the increase in population
went off to the colonies in Africa and Asia – this is not an option for
developing countries
4. Increase in population, economic stagnation and ecological problems make it
almost impossible for some LEDCs. Only a few have successfully broken the
cycle – eg South Korea
Stage 4
UK
Stage 5
Germany
Stage 5 Sweden
Demographic Transition Model
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
POPULATION
PYRAMIDS
How do population
pyramids help us
learn about
population?
Population pyramids are
useful because they show:
• Trends in the birth rate, death rate, infant
mortality rate and life expectancy - these trends
can help a country to plan its future services, e.g.
more homes for the elderly if there is an ageing
population or fewer schools if there is a declining
birth rate.
• The effects of people migrating into or out of a
region or country.
• The proportion of the population who are
economically active and the proportion who are
dependent upon them (dependency ratio).
Population pyramids
Population pyramids are used to show information about the age and
gender of people in a specific country.
Male
Female
There is also
a high Death
Rate.
In this
country there
is a high
Birth Rate
typical of
LEDCs
Population in millions
This population pyramid is typical of countries in
poorer parts of the world (LEDCs.)
In some LEDCs the
government is
encouraging couples to
have smaller families.
This means the birth
rate has fallen.
Male
Female
The largest
category of
people were
born about
40 years
ago.
In this
country the
number of
people in each
age group is
about the
same.
Population in millions
In this country there is a low Birth Rate
and a low Death Rate.
This population pyramid is typical of
countries in the richer parts of the world
(MEDCs.)
Male
Female
Population in millions
In this
country the
birth rate is
decreasing.
This is happening
more and more in
many of the world’s
richer countries.
In the future the
elderly people will make
up the largest section
of the population in this
country.
Male
Female
Population in thousands
This country has a large
number of temporary
workers. These are people
who migrate here especially
to find a job.
Population pyramid for
Mozambique.
Population pyramid for
Iceland.
What happens next?
What is going to happen to Japan’s population
in the future?
Why does this matter?
What about India ?
?
?
USA v Thailand Pyramid Ex
How are they different:
Thailand has a higher Birth Rate than the USA.
1. This is because in Thailand it is an LEDC and children are needed
as a labour supply to work on the farm and family businesses.
Also there is no state pension or social security in old age so
parents have large families as an insurance policy when they
themselves are old. Also the levels of contraception are lower as is
the awareness of contraception. Also they have more children as
they know that some will survive.
Thailand has a higher death rate than the USA.
1. This is because in Thailand the standards of healthcare are not as
good as USA. The levels of vaccinations are poor and hence the
life expectancy is lower as the overall living conditions and
standards of hygiene are poorer.
The male-female split was similar and females generally live longer
than males
Video 135
UK
The birth rate in the UK is very low (1.7 per family). This
is because:
1. People are marrying later in life. Average age of
marriage is now 28 – in medieval times (1400s) it was
14!
2. Women are following careers and so having less
children and children later in life. This means that they
don’t have enough time to have as many as they used
to.
3. Children are also very expensive – so people are
having less
This could all lead to a declining population as birth rates
continue to fall (eg Sweden, Austria)
Prep – due in________
Go to website
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html
And select one MEDC for 2000 and 2025 then one
LEDC for 2000 and 2025. Then annotate them and
label characteristics for:
•Birth Rate
•Death Rate
•Life Expectancy
•Infant Mortality
•Dependency Ratio
•Any any other points
INTERNAL
MIGRATION
INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION
Mexico
to the
USA
A Tale of Illegal Immigrants
Push Factors – pushing someone away from an area
•Disasters
•High taxes
•Poor climate – eg crops failed
•High living costs
•Religious persecution
•Death of spouse
•Remoteness – cut off from outside world – eg North Korea
•Stuck in poverty trap
•War – eg Sudan
•Retirement – eg from UK to Spain – better climate there
•Fed up with politics
Obstacles to Migration
•Religion
•Not having enough money
•Politics
•Don’t speak the language
•Costs of travel is too much
•Cant get VISA
•Border controls
•Immigration Policies – eg EU wont let me in
Pull Factors – factors which encourage a person to go to a particular place
•Better climate - eg UK to Spain to retire
•Better standard of living
•Better healthcare / free healthcare – eg NHS in UK
•Better education / free education – eg UK
•More land
•Able to marry at younger age
•More relaxed media - greater freedom
•Better security – eg South Africans migrating to a safer UK
•More / better jobs – more money
•Better minimum wage rate
•More liberal democracy with more relaxed immigration policies
Effect on original area
•Loss of labour and taxes
•Production in factories falls – reduced a countries GDP
•Money sent back home to support family
•Not enough nurses or doctors / other skilled professionals as they are
lured away to work in richer countries
•Families split up – as eg dad works abroad
•Strain on local services – eg hospitals – as nurses / doctors leave
•Farms struggle to produce enough crops
Effect on Destination Area:
•Strain on services – eg NHS or education or housing – UK / Mexico
City
•Growth of shanty towns in LEDCs – eg Mexico City
•Lack of jobs – unemployment
•New culture, food and music brought in – eg China Town, NY Little
Italy, Boston – Irish Quarter
•Crime rates increase – civil unrest – eg EU migration of eastern
Europeans to London – criminal activity
•Lot of competition for jobs – so wages fall
•Population rises
•Growth of informal sector – jobs that are cash in hand – eg window
cleaning – shoe shining – drug dealing etc
•Traffic congestion – pressure on public transport
•Pollution
•Migrants do less attractive jobs
•Migrants end up working long hours
MEXICO TO THE USA
•Why do people try to cross the
border illegally ?
•What are the push factors ?
•What are the pull factors ?
A Typical Mexican Shanty Town
Push Factors
GNP USA = $26980 ; Mexico = $3320
IM = USA = 7 ; Mexico = 34
•Population doubling time in Mexico is 32 years – there is a danger of Malthusian checks
(war, famine, disease) – better to get out now! There is not enough land to farm
•El Nino – a climatic factor – which brings floods and periods of drought – leading to crop
failure
•80% have no clean water supply and ½ children in rural areas – left school by 11 – most are
illiterate
The Pull Factors:
•LA is known as city of opportunity
•Coca cola image – Hollywood image
•Bright lights effect – Dick Whittington idea!
•Often migrants go across border for seasonal work – eg fruit picking – they are
fundamental to the US economy – because the Americans don’t want to do this
manual labour!
•2 million illegal migrant attempts – 300,000 get past border guards!
•If caught deported back to Mexico!
•Obstacles: 4m fence, searchlights, 5,500 border guards, dogs, helicopters
•Most migrants head to where they have contacts – friends who are there already –
this helps them get set up with accommodation, jobs – they work long hours
Maquiladora Developments:
•In last 20yrs more than 2000
US Factories have been built
Inside Mexico
•The attractions are:
1.Mexicans are willing to work
For much lower wages than
Would have been paid in the
USA
2.Production costs are lower because
There are fewer environmental controls in Mexico so waste can easily
Be dumped and blamed on Mexican’s environmental budget!
3. Being close to the border, goods can easily be taken over for sale
BUT – this has led to rural migrants coming to urban areas within
Mexico. They catch hold of the American dream and try to illegally
Cross the border in search of a better way of life
Perhaps it would be better not to open these factories at all!?
1 in 3 chance - The border at night
1 in 10 chance!
Around 1,000,000 people a year are caught by
the United States Border Patrol trying to cross
the border. Many of these are repeat offenders.
What would make you risk a crossing ?
What do you think most American’s think of the
‘illegal aliens’ or ‘pollos’ as they are called ?
Why are some people glad to see the illegal
immigrants?
Sit On It!
It's not known whether Enrique Aquilar Canchola,
42, thought his disguise would work, but it definitely
didn't. The Mexican national tried to cross the
Mexico-U.S. border into San Ysidro, California,
disguised as a car seat. A U.S. Immigration and
Naturalization Service Inspector discovered the
unusual camouflage when he checked the back of a
van when it tried to sneak Canchola over the border.
(London Times) ...He agreed to it after learning
immigrants are often treated like furniture.
No, Please -- Don't Get Up!
Enrique Aquilar Canchola, 42, photographed in the disguise he used to try -- unsuccessfully -- to
sneak across the border from Mexico to the U.S. at the San Ysidro crossing, which can be seen
in the background. (U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service photo.)
The story of Pedro Morales
•
•
•
Choose what to buy with $40 – justify why
you have bought these items - Produce a
budget summary outlining what you spent
your money on
Choose and justify which of the 4 jobs you
will do?
Choose and justify which route you will take –
wire cutters or swimming route?
Some points to include:
• Include maps
• Include photos (google images)
• Include photos of the job you will do – eg
ranching , factory
REFUGEES
Definitions
• refugee : “a person who owing to a well-founded
fear of being persecuted for reasons of race,
religion, nationality, membership of a particular
social group, or political opinion, is outside the
country of his nationality, and is unable to or,
owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of
the protection of that country…”
• The 1951 Convention relating to
the Status of Refugees
• asylum seeker : someone who applies for
refuge in a state other than his or her own
• economic migrant : someone who migrates
without a just fear of persecution, but with
the primary intention of personal betterment
How many refugees are there?
• worldwide : just over 12 million (January
2002)
• 7.8 million of these from 10 countries – all
LEDCs
• e.g. 3.8 million Afghans
• 554,000 Burundians
• 530,000 Iraqis
Where are the refugees?
• the vast majority are close to home
• most are in other LEDCs
• 48% in Asia, 27% in Africa, 18% in Europe,
5% in North America
• 500,000 returned home in 2001
Asylum seekers
•
•
•
•
•
•
923,000 in 2001 worldwide
down from 1,092,000 in 2000…
UK : 88,300
Germany : 88,290
France 47,290
EU : 2% fall from 2000-01
Internally displaced persons
•
•
•
•
‘internal refugees’
not technically under the UNHCR mandate
estimated 5.3 million in 2002
1.2 million of these were Afghans
PALESTINIAN
REFUGEES
History of
the
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Population of Palestine:
Year
1800
1881
1908
Arabs
268,000
500,000
650,000
Jews
6,700
24,000 (5%)
70,000 (9%)
Ratio
(40::1)
(21::1)
(9::1)
1922
660,000
83,000
(8::1)
Population of Palestine:
Year
Muslims
Christians
Jews
Ratio
1922
589,000
71,000
84,000
8::1
1931
760,000
89,000
175,000
5::1
1939
927,000
117,000
445,000
2.4::1
1948-51:
Jewish
population of
Israel doubles
Palestinian
flight/expulsion
1947-50
• 1,400,000 Palestinians in
Palestine on eve of 1948 war
• From area that became Israel,
915-950,000 Palestinians
became refugees
– 60/120,000 Palestinians
remained in Israel
• West Bank: 360,000
• Gaza Strip: 200,000
• Jordan, Syria, Lebanon:
300,000
Palestinian refugees,
2001
• 81% of population of Gaza
Strip
• 31% of population of West
Bank
• 38% of all Palestinian
registered refugees live in
WB and Gaza
• 42% of all RR live in
Jordan (1/3 of population
of Jordan)
Important repercussions of 1948
• No national sovereignty for Palestinians
• Palestinians ceased to be a majority in their land, and
became a minority in many lands
– Political impotency (until 1964) and suppression;
– economic exploitation;
– social isolation
• 15,000 Palestinians killed in 1948 war (1% of population)
• Village and kin relationships severed with dispersion
• Marriage within extended family and village important elements of
maintaining networks
Political results of war, cont.
• Palestine reunited under one (Israeli) rule
– Rise of messianism and Greater Israel
– Palestinian identity revived
• 3 separate groups of Palestinians in physical contact
• Rise of the PLO as new actor
• Conflict with Israel sharpened into IsraeliPalestinian one
PalestineTransjordan, at
time of mandates
The formation of
Israel; late 1940s
Israel &
Palestine
Today
Link to BBC maps on IsraelWest Bank & Gaza
Palestine
Refugee
Camps,
1948
Gaza Strip, April 2004
Distribution of Palestinian
Refugees
Distribution of Arabs of Palestinian Birth or Descent
1948 1952 1961
Palestine
100
76
65
Israel
22
11
West Bank
47
37
Gaza
18
17
Outside
Palestine
24
35
East Bank
9
17
Leb./Syria
12
13
Other
0
5
Millions
1.4
1.6
pre- post1967 1967 1970 1982 1992
63
50
46
41
40
12
15
15
12
12
34
22
20
18
16
18
13
11
10
12
37
18
13
6
50
27
13
10
54
30
13
11
59
24
14
21
60
28
11
21
2.2 2.65
2.7
3.0
4.5
6.0
Source: article by J. Abu-Lughod in Cambridge Survey
Yasir
Arafat.
Born 1929 (Cairo or Jerusalem); died 2004
Studied Engineering in Cairo; ran a firm for a while
1952 Joined Muslim Brotherhood and Union of
Palestinian Students.
1957 Starts Al Fatah. PLO is formed in 1964, and
Al Fatah emerges as strongest element. Arafat
pulls away from a Pan-Arab line, towards one
focused on Palestinian issues.
Oslo Agreement in 1993 (2 states, land for peace)
was controversial, even if it won him the Nobel Prize
2002 Sharon forces house arrest in Ramalah.
Palestini
an
Politics
Source: New York Times,
January 6, 2005
CHINA ONE CHILD
POLICY
China
One Child Policy
DANGER - CHINA’S
POPULATION
REACHED 1 BILLION
(1,000,000,000)!
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Background to the Policy:
In 1979, the Chinese government
implemented a policy known today as the
one-child policy. The policy has at times been
praised as an effective tool for ensuring that
China will be able to continue to support its
large population and at times reviled as a tool
for human rights abuses and female
infanticide (See Guardian Newspaper article)
Those who criticize the policy claim that it has led to
extensive human rights violations and sexual
discrimination. Chinese families overwhelmingly prefer
male children to female children, and, as a result, female
infanticide is increasing. Also, many people criticize the
fact that abortions are often forced on women who are
visibly pregnant with their second child. This often
includes very late term abortions. There have been reports
of mass sterilizations in the rural areas as well.
The policy was adopted to ensure that China, a country that
has historically been prone to severe flooding and famine,
would be able to feed its people. The rapid population
growth that occurred after the Communist Party came to
power had put a strain on the government's efforts to help
its people. So in an attempt to combat the widespread
poverty and improve the overall quality of life, the onechild policy was gradually adopted.
The one child policy (1979), although not formally
written into law consists of three main points.
1. advocating delayed marriage and delayed child
bearing
2. advocating fewer and healthier births
3. advocating one child per couple
Problems with the Policy
However, the one-child policy does not mean that all families
have only one child.
The policy is very difficult to enforce, especially in rural areas,
where enforcement officials are more prone to corruption and
families need to be large to support the parents in their old age.
In addition, families sometimes attempt to circumvent the law by
sending pregnant women to stay with relatives. The resulting child
will be unregistered, making it difficult for the child to be
educated and advance in life, but will still be able to support the
family.
Exceptions to the policy:
1. ethnic minorities are formally excluded from the policy,
although some have reported being forced to comply.
2. if both parents are only children, they are allowed to
have more than one child provided the children are spaced
more than four years apart.
3. families who have children with mental or physical
disabilities are sometimes allowed to have a second child.
COMMENT:
People who support the one-child policy point to figures that show
that the policy has reduced China's population by 250 million. This
relieves some of the obvious stress on China, which already has one
fifth of the world's population. Also, education is very expensive in
China, so the one-child policy allows families to concentrate their
resources on one child, thus leading to higher standards of education.
Furthermore, women, especially urban women, are now able to
concentrate on their careers instead of raising lots of children. This
has led to an increased role for women in the workforce.
Conclusion
Furthermore, critics say that the Chinese government is taking a short
term view by implementing this policy and has failed to consider all of
the long range effects. For instance, some estimates put the ratio of
Chinese males to Chinese females at 117 males for every 100 females,
others put this ratio as high as 131 to 100. The average ratio is about 105
males for every 100 females. Critics worry what will happen when these
"extra" males can't find females to marry (more on the “army of
batchelors” problem).
In addition, the one-child policy has led to the rise of the so-called "little
emperors" - only children who are spoiled, since their parents and
grandparents have fewer people on whom to spread their largesse.
Studies have shown that these children are less interested in tradition
than their elders and feel compelled to quickly carve out a niche for
themselves in society. The Chinese government has been forced to start
parenting classes and family clinics to deal with this issue.
China One Child Policy Debate
1. UN Inspector Team – argue that all things in Guardian
newspaper article – eg abortion – human rights violations
are wrong and MUST be halted at once!
2. Communist Party – 1979 “1 Child Policy” was needed –
danger of Malthusian checks if we stop it!
3. Granny Police – need a job – if you loose your spying job
you are on the streets – then the UN may come in again!
4. Young mothers – who want 2/3 children – not 1! – why
should you only have to have 1 child – you are also in
danger of loosing your job or having a forced abortion if
you do not comply with the Communist Party
EU AGEING
POPULATION
UK cont.
The number of old people, or dependent people is going to
increase significantly. This causes lots of problems for the
government. First of all the old people need to be looked
after in old age. Traditional National Insurance payments
leave billions of £ worth of shortfall. Where will this
money come from?
1. Direct taxation by the government
2. People will need to save more for retirement
3. People will work till they are 70-75!!
The birth rate is also falling in the UK as children are
expensive to put through education and feed etc.
People are living much longer due to increases in health
care and treatments of cancer are improving. Also
genetic treatment of disease is also getting better.
Dependency Ratio
(nos of children under 15 + nos of people over 65) x 100
Total nos of people aged 16-64
UK in 2001 = 51.4
UK in 2050 = 70
The dependency ratio is going to increase from 51 to 70 over the
next 50 years. This causes a huge number of issues for the
government.
1. The state pension in the UK is not enough so the government has
to think about raising taxation to pay for the ever ageing population
2. More old people’s homes will need to be built and nurses found to
care for old people
3. There will be an increase in power of the “grey vote” in other
words political parties will need to appeal to the older generation
more in the years to come
4. The population pyramid for 2050 is very top heavy as the death
rate is very low. The birth rate is also very low and falling. This may
lead to a declining population or a negative natural increase rate.
All this has come about due to an increase in medical technology,
better diets and exercise so people are living healthier and longer
lives. The government has to face up to these issues in the coming
years.