Chapter 6 - Risk and Rates
of Return
Return
Risk
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Tujuan Pembelajaran
Mahasiswa mampu untuk:
Menjelaskan hubungan antara tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan
dengan risiko
Menjelaskan efek inflasi atas tingkat imbal hasil
Menjelaskan term structure dari tingkat bunga
Mendefinisikan dan mengukur tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan
dan risiko dari suatu suatu investasi
Menjelaskan pengaruh diversifikasi terhadap imbal hasil yang
diharapakan dan tingkat risiko dari suatu portofolio atau
kombinasi aset
Mengukur risiko pasar dari suatu aset dan portofolio investasi
Menjelaskan hubungan antara tingkat imbal hasil yang diminta
investor dan tingkat risiko dari suatu
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investasi
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Pokok Bahasan
Tingkat imbal hasil di Pasar Keuangan
Efek inflasi terhadap tingkat imbal hasil dan Efek Fisher
Term Strucuture dari tingkat bunga
Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan
Risiko
Risiko dan diversifikasi
Mengukur risiko pasar
Mengukur beta dari suatu portofolio
Ttingkat imbal hasil yang diminta investor
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Inflation, Rates of Return,
and the Fisher Effect
Interest
Rates
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Interest Rates
Conceptually:
Nominal
risk-free
Interest
Rate
=
Real
risk-free
Interest
Rate
krf
k*
+
Inflationrisk
premium
IRP
Mathematically:
(1 + krf) = (1 + k*) (1 + IRP)
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This is known as the “Fisher Effect”
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Interest Rates
Suppose the real rate is 3%, and the nominal
rate is 8%. What is the inflation rate
premium?
(1 + krf) = (1 + k*) (1 + IRP)
(1.08) = (1.03) (1 + IRP)
(1 + IRP) = (1.0485), so
IRP = 4.85%
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Term Structure of Interest Rates
The pattern of rates of return for debt
securities that differ only in the length
of time to maturity.
yield
to
maturity
time to maturity (years)
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Term Structure of Interest Rates
The yield curve may be downward
sloping or “inverted” if rates are
expected to fall.
yield
to
maturity
time to maturity (years)
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Term Structure of Interest Rates
The yield curve may be downward
sloping or “inverted” if rates are
expected to fall.
yield
to
maturity
time to maturity (years)
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For a Treasury security, what is
the required rate of return?
Required
rate of
return
=
Risk-free
rate of
return
Since Treasuries are essentially free of
default risk, the rate of return on a
Treasury security is considered the
“risk-free” rate of return.
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For a corporate stock or bond,
what is the required rate of return?
Required
rate of
return
=
Risk-free
rate of
return
+
Risk
premium
How large of a risk premium should we
require to buy a corporate security?
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Returns
Expected Return - the return that an
investor expects to earn on an asset,
given its price, growth potential, etc.
Required Return - the return that an
investor requires on an asset given
its risk and market interest rates.
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Expected Return
State of Probability
Return
Economy
(P)
Orl. Utility Orl. Tech
Recession
.20
4%
-10%
Normal
.50
10%
14%
Boom
.30
14%
30%
For each firm, the expected return on the
stock is just a weighted average:
k = P(k1)*k1 + P(k2)*k2 + ...+ P(kn)*kn
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Expected Return
State of Probability
Return
Economy
(P)
Orl. Utility Orl. Tech
Recession
.20
4%
-10%
Normal
.50
10%
14%
Boom
.30
14%
30%
k = P(k1)*k1 + P(k2)*k2 + ...+ P(kn)*kn
k (OU) = .2 (4%) + .5 (10%) + .3 (14%) = 10%
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Expected Return
State of Probability
Return
Economy
(P)
Orl. Utility Orl. Tech
Recession
.20
4%
-10%
Normal
.50
10%
14%
Boom
.30
14%
30%
k = P(k1)*k1 + P(k2)*k2 + ...+ P(kn)*kn
k (OI) = .2 (-10%)+ .5 (14%) + .3 (30%) = 14%
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Based only on your
expected return
calculations, which
stock would you
prefer?
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Have you considered
RISK?
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What is Risk?
The possibility that an actual return
will differ from our expected return.
Uncertainty in the distribution of
possible outcomes.
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What is Risk?
Uncertainty in the distribution of
possible outcomes.
Company A
0.5
0.2
0.45
0.18
0.4
0.16
0.35
0.14
0.3
0.12
0.25
0.1
0.2
0.08
0.15
0.06
0.1
0.04
0.05
0.02
0
4
8
return
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Company B
12
0
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
return
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How do We Measure Risk?
To get a general idea of a stock’s
price variability, we could look at
the stock’s price range over the
past year.
52 weeks
Yld
Vol
Net
Hi Lo Sym Div % PE 100s Hi Lo Close Chg
134 80 IBM .52 .5 21 143402 98 95 9549 -3
115 40 MSFT
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…
29 558918 55
52
5194 -475
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How do We Measure Risk?
A more scientific approach is to
examine the stock’s standard
deviation of returns.
Standard deviation is a measure of
the dispersion of possible outcomes.
The greater the standard deviation,
the greater the uncertainty, and,
therefore, the greater the risk.
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Standard Deviation
s=
n
S
(ki -
2
k)
P(ki)
i=1
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s=
n
S (ki -
2
k)
P(ki)
i=1
Orlando Utility, Inc.
( 4% - 10%)2 (.2) = 7.2
(10% - 10%)2 (.5) = 0
(14% - 10%)2 (.3) = 4.8
Variance
=
12
Stand. dev. = 12 = 3.46%
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s=
n
S (ki -
2
k)
P(ki)
i=1
Orlando Technology, Inc.
(-10% - 14%)2 (.2) = 115.2
(14% - 14%)2 (.5) =
0
(30% - 14%)2 (.3) = 76.8
Variance
=
192
Stand. dev. = 192 = 13.86%
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Which stock would you prefer?
How would you decide?
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Summary
Orlando
Utility
Expected Return
Standard Deviation
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Orlando
Technology
10%
14%
3.46%
13.86%
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It depends on your tolerance for risk!
Return
Risk
Remember, there’s a tradeoff between
risk and return.
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Portfolios
Combining several securities
in a portfolio can actually
reduce overall risk.
How does this work?
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Suppose we have stock A and stock B.
The returns on these stocks do not tend
to move together over time (they are
not perfectly correlated).
rate
of
return
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time
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Suppose we have stock A and stock B.
The returns on these stocks do not tend
to move together over time (they are
not perfectly correlated).
kA
rate
of
return
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kB
time
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What has happened to the
variability of returns for the
portfolio?
kA
rate
of
return
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kp
kB
time
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Diversification
Investing in more than one security
to reduce risk.
If two stocks are perfectly positively
correlated, diversification has no
effect on risk.
If two stocks are perfectly negatively
correlated, the portfolio is perfectly
diversified.
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If you owned a share of every stock
traded on the NYSE and NASDAQ,
would you be diversified?
YES!
Would you have eliminated all of
your risk?
NO! Common stock portfolios still
have risk.
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Some risk can be diversified
away and some cannot.
Market risk (systematic risk) is
nondiversifiable. This type of risk
cannot be diversified away.
Company-unique risk (unsystematic
risk) is diversifiable. This type of risk
can be reduced through
diversification.
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Market Risk
Unexpected changes in interest
rates.
Unexpected changes in cash flows
due to tax rate changes, foreign
competition, and the overall
business cycle.
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Company-unique Risk
A company’s labor force goes on
strike.
A company’s top management dies
in a plane crash.
A huge oil tank bursts and floods a
company’s production area.
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As you add stocks to your portfolio,
company-unique risk is reduced.
portfolio
risk
companyunique
risk
Market risk
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number of stocks
37
Do some firms have more
market risk than others?
Yes. For example:
Interest rate changes affect all firms,
but which would be more affected:
a) Retail food chain
b) Commercial bank
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Note
As we know, the market compensates
investors for accepting risk - but
only for market risk. Companyunique risk can and should be
diversified away.
So - we need to be able to measure
market risk.
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This is why we have Beta.
Beta: a measure of market risk.
Specifically, beta is a measure of how
an individual stock’s returns vary
with market returns.
It’s a measure of the “sensitivity” of
an individual stock’s returns to
changes in the market.
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The market’s beta is 1
A firm that has a beta = 1 has average
market risk. The stock is no more or less
volatile than the market.
A firm with a beta > 1 is more volatile than
the market.
(ex: technology firms)
A firm with a beta < 1 is less volatile than
the market.
(ex: utilities)
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Calculating Beta
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Calculating Beta
XYZ Co. returns
15
S&P 500
returns
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.. .
Beta = slope
= 1.20
.
.
.
.
10 . . . .
.. . .
.. . .
5
.. . .
.
.
.
.
-10
5
-5 -5
10
.. . .
. . . . -10
.. . .
. . . -15.
15
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Summary:
We know how to measure risk, using
standard deviation for overall risk
and beta for market risk.
We know how to reduce overall risk
to only market risk through
diversification.
We need to know how to price risk so
we will know how much extra return
we should require for accepting extra
risk.
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What is the Required Rate of
Return?
The return on an investment
required by an investor given
market interest rates and the
investment’s risk.
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Required
rate of
return
=
Risk-free
rate of
return
market
risk
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+
Risk
premium
companyunique risk
can be diversified
away
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Required
rate of
return
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Let’s try to graph this
relationship!
Beta
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Required
rate of
return
12%
.
security
market
line
(SML)
1
Beta
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
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This linear relationship between
risk and required return is
known as the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM).
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Required
rate of
return
Is there a riskless
(zero beta) security?
.
12%
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
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0
1
SML
Treasury
securities are
as close to riskless
as possible.
Beta
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Required
rate of
return
Where does the S&P 500
fall on the SML?
.
12%
The S&P 500 is
a good
approximation
for the market
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
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SML
0
1
Beta
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Required
rate of
return
SML
Utility
Stocks
12%
.
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
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0
1
Beta
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Required
rate of
return
High-tech
stocks
SML
.
12%
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
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0
1
Beta
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The CAPM equation:
kj = krf + b j (km - krf )
where:
kj = the required return on security
j,
krf = the risk-free rate of interest,
b j = the beta of security j, and
km = the return on the market index.
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Example:
Suppose the Treasury bond rate is
6%, the average return on the
S&P 500 index is 12%, and Walt
Disney has a beta of 1.2.
According to the CAPM, what
should be the required rate of
return on Disney stock?
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kj = krf + b (km - krf )
kj = .06 + 1.2 (.12 - .06)
kj = .132 = 13.2%
According to the CAPM, Disney
stock should be priced to give a
13.2% return.
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Required
rate of
return
Theoretically, every
security should lie
on the SML
.
12%
If every stock
is on the SML,
investors are being fully
compensated for risk.
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
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SML
0
1
Beta
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Required
rate of
return
If a security is above
the SML, it is
underpriced.
.
12%
If a security is
below the SML, it
is overpriced.
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
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SML
0
1
Beta
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Simple Return Calculations
$50
$60
t
t+1
Pt+1 - Pt
Pt
Pt+1
Pt
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=
-1 =
60 - 50
50
60
50
= 20%
-1 = 20%
59
month
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
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price
$50.00
$58.00
$63.80
$59.00
$62.00
$64.50
$69.00
$69.00
$75.00
$82.50
$73.00
$80.00
$86.00
(a)
(b)
monthly expected
return
return
(a - b)2
60
month
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
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price
$50.00
$58.00
$63.80
$59.00
$62.00
$64.50
$69.00
$69.00
$75.00
$82.50
$73.00
$80.00
$86.00
(a)
(b)
monthly expected
return
return
0.160
0.100
-0.075
0.051
0.040
0.070
0.000
0.087
0.100
-0.115
0.096
0.075
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.049
(a - b)2
0.012321
0.002601
0.015376
0.000004
0.000081
0.000441
0.002401
0.001444
0.002601
0.028960
0.002090
0.000676
St. Dev: sum, divide by (n-1), and take sq root: 0.0781
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