Community Economic Development Kick-off
February 15, 2013
Frank Knott – fknott@vitaleconomy.com
Mark Madsen – mmadsen@priorityone-advisors.com
Jim Haguewood – jim@onegroupconsulting.com
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months
Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Leadership Board
David Alstadt
Windham Workforce Investment Board
Bill Colvin
Bennington Regional Commission
Tim Cullenen
Town of Rockingham – Village of Bellows Falls
Colby Dix
Vermont Geeks
Jill James
Chroma
Martin Langeveld
Strolling of the Heifers
Jeff Lewis
Brattleboro Development and Credit Corp
Susan McMahon
Windham Regional Commission
Patrick Moreland
Town of Brattleboro
Stephan Morse
Retired
Adam Grinold
Mt. Snow Valley Chamber of Commerce
Jenna Pugliese
Stratton Mountain Resort
Drew Richards
Richards Insurance
Barb Sondag
Town of Brattleboro
Julia Sorensen
Brattleboro Retreat
Bob Stevens
Stevens and Associates
Lisa Sullivan
Bartleby's Books
Dan Yates
Brattleboro Savings & Loan
Laura Sibilia
BDCC SeVEDS Project Director
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Addition CEDS Committee Members
Rachel Selsky
Camoin Associates
Stephanie Huestis
Peoples Bank
Andy Robinson
Department of Labor
Bill Anton
Dover School Principal
Chris Moore
Attorney in Bellows Falls
Connie Snow
Windham Windsor Housing
Dutch Walsh
Town of Rockingham
Gail Nunziata
Latchis
Roger Albee
former VT Secretary of Agriculture, VT Technical College
Oliver Olsen
Oracle
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Mission Statement
SeVEDS exists to reverse the economic decline of this region
Allowing the stagnant economic and demographic
trends that have persisted over the last decade to
continue in southeastern Vermont threatens the
Vermont Brand and post card perfect perception
of our quality of place. It is time to stick a stake in
the ground and say “enough is enough” and
develop strategies and actions based on our assets
to reverse those trends.
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Shared Sense of Urgency
Low wages, a rising cost of living and limited job
opportunities create a disconnect between the skills
needed by employers and the skills held by the workforce.
This leads to a widely shared sense of economic insecurity
resulting in many Vermonters looking for economic
opportunity elsewhere, and few choosing Vermont as a
place to live and conduct business.
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Vision
Southeastern Vermont will have an economy that generates
long-term growth and prosperity and that improves our quality
of life and sustains our quality of place.
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS 2017 Objectives (Goals)
1. Create Operational and Fiscal Sustainability Plan for SeVEDS by
December 2011
2. Improve Wage Parity with Surrounding Labor-shed
3. Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce
4. Increase population proportion of 25-44 year olds from 23% to
28% of total population by 2017
5. Create an Entrepreneurial Environment
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Projected SeVEDS Region 2017 Goals and Outcomes as of 2010
Note: Baseline and Goals based on 2009 U.S. BEA Data & Estimates
Base SeVEDS Region Metrics
Baseline*
2017 Goal
%Change
Total Change
Population
42,605
42,605
0%
-
Employable Population (16 and older)
35,520*
36,171
+1.8%
+651
65%*
68.8%
+5.8%
-
Total Employed
23,089*
24,894
+7.8%
+1,805
Average Wage
$38,820
$39,848
+2.6%
+$1,028/yr
Total Region Wages
$896M
$992M
+10.7%
$96M
Regional GDP
$2.37B
$2.8B
+18.1%
$430M
Baseline
2017 Goal
Change
.566
.650
+14.1%
Increase Median Annual Income for Associates/Some
College workforce
$26,855
$32,000
+19.1%
Increase Median Annual Income for Bachelors Degree
workforce
$32,518
$39,000
+19.9%
Increase 20-44 employment by 20% in five years (2009 data)
10,691
12,829
20%
+2,138
Increase Associates Degrees/Some College and Technical
Certificates among 18-24 age bracket
38%
(1,495)
47%
(1,884)
+23.6%
+389
9,533
11,439
20%
+1,906
Labor Participation Rate
Regional Strategic Metrics
Ratio Net Earned Income/Total Income
Increase the 25-44 age population by 20% in five years
* Base Line data is as of Spring 2010
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
+$5.145/yr
($2.47/hr)
+$6,482/yr
($3.12/hr)
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months
Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Why Do We Do A CEDS ?
•
Eligibility for economic development assistance funding from EDA
•
EDA can help fund local infrastructure projects, technology-led
economic development projects and strategies that respond to
sudden and severe economic dislocations from major lay-offs or
plant closings.
•
One regional CEDS serves the needs of local governments so that
they do not individually need to qualify to receive EDA funds
•
Numerous federal agencies now use the CEDS as a bonus qualifier
for prioritization of grant applications. Federal agencies (i.e. USDA,
HUD, DOE, DOC, DOL, etc.) are teaming their resources for larger
competitive grants. CEDS applicants receive bonus points.
•
Connects local planning efforts to regional strategies
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Why Does SeVEDS Want To Do A CEDS ?
•
Provides more clarity for the initial SeVEDS strategies
•
Educates community to be more engaged and take ownership of CEDS
•
Proven process for building and galvanizing public support
•
Develops a valid implementation plan for the SeVEDS strategy
•
Increases public & private sector networking to achieve more opportunity
•
Creates a common and consistent economic development message
•
Enables strategy integration with Windham Regional Plan & beyond
•
Connects public works projects to priority economic development projects
•
Facilitate discussion of need for an organized system of redevelopment
•
Provides planning mechanism for a post VY economy
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
We are Building a S.M.A.R.T. CEDS to Increase Opportunity
Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Relevant
Time Based
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Keys to Regional S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Development & Implementation
1. Process – Based on Best Practices for Regional CED & Collaboration
2. Regional Focus – Enables regions to compete against country strategies
3. Asset-Based – Indigenous assets grow more durable economies
4. Diversified – Makes for a more nimble & resilient economy!
5. Measurable Strategy – Responsive to trends…relevant to region
6. Disciplined & Consistent – All ideas are not equal…priorities matter
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Create and Retain Wealth To Build Prosperity
Wealth Creation
Wealth Retention
Increase Exports
Increase Value Adding
Capture Value Chains
Reduce Leakage
Investment Attraction
Recapture Value in Waste Streams
Prosperity
Productivity
Innovation in Education
Technology Innovation
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Innovation in Organizations
S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Will Increase Economic Opportunity
Within 5 Yrs:
Now:
Collaboration builds critical mass and creates a climate
of unlimited economic opportunity!
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
•
Your ideas or questions….
Q. Might an important goal be improvement of quality of life. For example – energy consumption. – Isn’t it
much more efficient to reduce consumption
How much focus will be on reducing consumption?
A.
Frank Knott – There is a close connection between environment, energy and economic growth. We talk
a lot about productivity which is about taking the waste out of the system . At the same time, unless you
are increasing wages and earned income you are not improving quality of life. In fact, quality of life
suffers in the face of a stagnant economy. The only growth trend in income in this region has been from
non-earned income. There as been an increase in sole-proprietors but a decrease in wages earned and
proprietor incomes earned. – Is that balanced?
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months
Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 18 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Updating the SeVEDS Regional Profile
The profile of a region consists not just of data, but also the influences
of events, people, perceptions, and attitudes. The following pages
provide a high level summary of the Economic Profile of the SeVEDS
region as reflected in Quantitative Statistics.
Raw data however is not the only story –
• On the night of April 18. 2011 a devastating fire swept through the
iconic Brooks House in downtown Brattleboro
• Four months later at the close of August Hurricane Irene hit with
torrential rains with wide-spread and record level flooding causing
significant destruction to homes and businesses and massive
devastation to critical infrastructure.
• Vermont and in particular Southeastern Vermont must continue to
plan for a Post-VY reality with the loss of hundreds of high wage jobs
and of economic impacts upon the region.
• Perceptions and attitudes about what constitutes appropriate
economic development and growth are not universally shared in
Vermont and in particular Southeastern Vermont. Many people have
expressed a preference for no economic growth.
• With the release of the 2010 Census – it has become starkly
apparent that projecting population trends for Southeast Vermont
defies trend analysis and further confirms the stagnant nature of the
regional economy.
• One thing that is clear is that Windham County is aging faster than
almost any other county in Northern New England or the U.S.
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Perceptions of Vermont Economic Performance
In February 2011, Dr. Michael Porter from Harvard Business School presented a report to
the National Governor’s Association Winter Meeting at the request of Governor Peter
Shumlin. The opening page of that report gave Vermont the following ratings relative to the
rest of the United States in terms of rank or position and whether the trend was improving or
declining:
Source: Vermont Competitiveness: State and Cluster Economic Performance, Porter, Michael E., Harvard Business School, paper presented at National
Governors Association Winter Meeting, February 26, 2011
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
2010 U.S. Census – Windham County Demographic Makeup
Age Bracket
0-4
5-14
15-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Total
median Age
Median Age
Vermont
Maine
Mass.
US
1990
3,052
5,997
2,571
2,544
6,973
7,331
4,308
3,418
2,914
1,780
700
41,588
34.6
1990
33.0
33.9
33.5
32.9
%
7.3%
14.4%
6.2%
6.1%
16.8%
17.6%
10.4%
8.2%
7.0%
4.3%
1.7%
2000
2,340
6,078
3,104
2,050
4,976
7,453
7,513
4,529
3,182
2,117
874
44,216
40.0
2000
37.7
38.6
36.6
35.3
%
5.3%
13.7%
7.0%
4.6%
11.3%
16.9%
17.0%
10.2%
7.2%
4.8%
2.0%
2010 EST
1,988
4,605
2,627
2,526
4,665
5,207
7,343
7,006
3,851
2,016
1,022
42,856
44.7
2010 EST
41.6
42.7
39.4
37.1
%
4.6%
10.7%
6.1%
5.9%
10.9%
12.1%
17.1%
16.3%
9.0%
4.7%
2.4%
2010 act
2,148
4,971
2,839
2,513
4,636
5,183
7,697
7,359
3,967
2,219
981
44,513
44.9
2010 Act
41.5
42.7
39.1
36.8
%
4.8%
11.2%
6.4%
5.6%
10.4%
11.6%
17.3%
16.5%
8.9%
5.0%
2.2%
Note the 2010 estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Windham County has defied even the best demographers effort to forecast population and demographics.
At the same time US Census bureau projected 2010 pop of 42,856, MIT projected 45,796.
For 2015, US Census projected Windham population of 41,804, Woods and Poole estimated 45,601 and
MIT projected 46,455.
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Source: Census Bureau 2010, 2012
Windham County Percentage Change in Demographic Makeup
• Age groups entering
the working population
(late teens and early
twenties) are small
• Significant decrease in
prime workforce and
childbearing ages
• Continual decline in the
number of school-aged
children since 1990’s
(% Change 1990-2000 and % Change 200-2010)
Over 65
+32..87%
+14.44%
45 to 65
+94.9%
+55.8%
-14.0%
-14.3%
-0.84%
0
5,000
Source: Census Bureau 2010, 2012
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
2010
2000
1990
-26.8%
20 to 44
• Significant increase in
the population of those
people approaching
retirement age
Windham County Changing Demographics
under 20
• In the 2010 Census,
Maine and Vermont
ranked #1 and #2 as
the oldest states. and
Windham County is
aging faster than Maine
and Vermont.
10,000
15,000
20,000
“Demographic is Destiny” – Arthur Kemp
Components of SE Vermont
Population Change 2000 - 2011
Source: US Census
Note: The Census Bureau makes a statistical correction, called a “residual”. Therefore Natural change plus net migration may not add to the total
population change in the previous tables
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
How will SeVEDS attract and retain a future workforce?
Demographic research confirms that 90% of U.S. employment gaps have been
filled by immigrants at all levels of employment.
A regions ability to grow is dependent on its ability to provide a climate that
encourages & welcomes a multi-cultural community & workforce.
United States
Vermont
Windham County, VT
Born in state of
residence
59.0%
52.2%
41.8%
Born in other state Native - born
in the United
outside the
States
United States
27.1%
1.3%
43.2%
0.9%
53.9%
0.9%
Foreign
born
12.5%
3.7%
3.5%
The major differences between the SeVEDS Region and the U.S. economy’s is the ability to attract and
retain the 20-44 age cohort. The implications are:
(1) The reduced ability to produce future workforce participants through birth, and
(2) Lack of immigration to replace the aging baby boomer work force.
Source: US Census American Community Survey Table B06001 2009
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Job Creation has been stagnant since early 1990s
Components of Windham County Employment Change, 1970 - 2011
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2011
18,144
23,256
28,951
33,306
33,474
33,337
Wage and Salary Jobs
15,876
18,929
23,316
25,890
24,040
24,036
Number of Proprietors
2,268
4,327
5,635
7,416
9,434
9,301
Wage and Salary Jobs
87.5%
81.4%
80.5%
77.7%
71.8%
72.1%
Number of Proprietors
12.5%
18.6%
19.5%
22.3%
28.2%
27.9%
Total Employment
Percent of Total
• Between 1995 to 2011 wage
and salary employment has
been stagnant, after
increasing during the twenty
years from 1970 to 1990.
Employment and Self-Employment
Windham County
30000
25000
20000
15000
• Self-employment has shown
steady increases over the last
forty years.
10000
5000
0
1970
1980
Wage and Salary Jobs
Source: BEA, US Census
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
1990
2000
Number of Proprietors
2010
Non-Labor related income is driving Real Per Capita Income growth
Real Dollars 2010 = 100
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2011
Real Average Earnings Per Job
$ 36,682
$ 31,084
$ 35,481
$ 38,386
$ 37,061
$ 36,657
Real Per Capital Income
$ 20,755
$ 23,822
$ 30,286
$ 36,543
$ 39,475
$ 39,232
Windham County
Average Earnings Per Job &
Per Capita Incomes 1970 - 2011
$45,000
• From 1970 to 2011, Per
Capita Income grew from
$20,755 to $39,232, in real
terms, an 89% increase
$40,000
Real Dollars 2010 = 100
• From 1970 to 2011, Average
Earning per Job fell from
$36,682 to $36,657, in real
terms, a drop of $25
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$1970
1980
Real Average Earning (all Jobs)
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
1990
2000
Real Per Capita Income 2010 = 100
2010
Sources of Personal Income (2011)
Div. Int. & Rent
declined by
1.5% since
2009
Windham 2011
1.1%
Improvement
since 2009
Transfer
payments rose
by .4 % from
2009
VT 2011
Windham County still lags behind the US and Vermont in
percentage of Private Sector Earned Income.
• Significantly higher proportion of income from Transfer
Payments
• Significantly higher share of income received from Dividends,
Interest & Rents
Source: BEA 2009 & VE Analysis
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
US 2011
— 27 —
Vermont Economic Performance Lags New England and US
Vermont GDP
US Real GDP Growth Rate 2.4%
85,000
Gross Domestic Product, Per Capita 2012
WY
75,000
65,000
AK
DE
Per Capita
US GDP $49,670
2012 Estimated
Per Capita GDP $44,833 = 33rd out of 51
GDP Growth Rate 2.2% = 36th out of 51
ND
NY
MA
CO
WA
CA
IA
35,000
GDP Under-performance is
impacted by five key factors:
1. Demographics
2. Declining Jobs
3. Lack of Immigration
4. Educational Attainment
5. Middle-Skill Workforce
TX
OF
NV 49,670
PA
RI NH NCUT
KS
WI
IN
Vermont
OK GA
TN
OH
MO
FL
MT NMKY
AZ
MI
AL
ID
AR
MS
ME
45,000
2017 Estimated
Per Capita GDP $50,000 = 39th out of 51
GDP Growth Rate 3.9% = 43rd out of 51
CT
LA
NJ
NB MN
IL
VA
SD MD
55,000
2011 Actual
Per Capita GDP $46,167 = 32nd out of 51
GDP Growth Rate 0.5% = 39th out of 51
High and Rising
Prosperity vs US
HI
Recent
improvements in
GDP still leave VT
lagging
WV
Declining prime worker cohort in
the 25-44 age group is directly
related to declining jobs. This is
further exacerbated by lack of
immigration.
MS
25,000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Real GDP Growth Rate 2012
Source: US BEA.
usgovernmernrevenue.com.
VE Analysis
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
— 28 —
7.0
8.0
Educational Attainment and
Workforce disconnects reduces
the ability of the region to supply
high-GDP growth, high demand
middle-skill jobs.
Concentration, Growth and Employment by Economic Sector
Windham County Sector Location Quotient and Growth Rates
+
C
o
n
c
e
n
t
r
a
t
I
o
n
Utilities - 473
Educational Services, Private- 1,563
Accommodations & Food Service – 2,648
Retail Trade, Staples – 1,939
Healthcare Social Services–2,816
Wholesale Trade -1,104
Metals Manufacture - 1,099
Information - 298
Highlighted industry sectors are the most significant in
economic impact in Windham County as of Fall 2010
- Compound Annual Growth 2010-2015 +
— 29 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Innovation Climate lags Surrounding Regions & U.S.
100%
116.9%
103.6%
103.6%
83%
87.9%
87.9%
84%
84%
0
20
US
40
Massachusetts
Innovation Index components:
1. Human Dynamics 30%
2. Economic Dynamics 30%
3. Productivity & Employment 30%
4. Economic Well-Being 10%
60
80
New Hamsphire
Maine
Vermont
120
140
Windham
Innovation Index demonstrates the need for SeVEDS to develop an
effective innovation environment and strategy. This requires that
SeVEDS capitalize on its indigenous assets, reverse demographic
trends, develop the proper mix of workforce skills, and invest in an
innovation ecosystem.
Source: US EDA Innovation Index, Innovation in America Region, www.statsamerica.org
— 30 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
100
Economic Performance Comparisons – Windham County vs US
Trends
Relative Performance, 2010
0.9%
9.6%
Employment (% change 2000-2010)
0.5%
5.1%
Personal income (% change 2000-2010)
9.0%
14.0%
-3.50%
2.3%
8.0%
4%
Average Earnings Per Job
$38,231
$53,347
Per Capita Income (% change 2000-2010)
$40,722
$41,197
Average Annual Wages - Service Related
$37,176
$46,145
Average Annual Wages - Non-Service Related
$45,592
$56,169
Average Annual Wages - Government Related
$37,256
$49,691
3.0%
4.9%
5.70%
8.9%
Percent of Sole-Proprietor Employment
28.20%
21.7%
Percent of Personal Income from Non-Earned Sources
43.30%
35.2%
Percent of Service Related Jobs
69.90%
70.9%
Percent of Non-Service Related Jobs
Percent of Government Jobs
15.30%
9.90%
14.9%
14.2%
Prosperity
Per Capita Income (% change 2000-2010)
Stress
US Ratio of Windham to United States
Population (% change 2000-2010)
Average Earning per Job (% change 2000-2010)
Structure
Windham
Unemployment Rate (Change 200-2011)
Unemployment Rated
Regional Performance Metric is Better than U.S.
Regional Performance Metric Lags U.S.
Sources BEA (CA05N, CA30 CA91) BLS-QCEW
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
— 31 —
Your thoughts or Questions
.
Your ideas or questions….
Q. We have some of most sustainable businesses – do we really want to attract information technology
companies that have high turnover.
A.
Mark Madsen – When we speak of technology driven firms, that is not just information technology
companies. You already have several companies in the region that are high tech, high value companies
– technology drive precision manufacturers
Audience Comment. Most Analysts don’t understand Windham county – Vermont is ahead because we are
behind – great asset is that we can produce quality of life with less income
Q. Why can’t Demographers accurately forecast population trends for the region?
A.
The region attract people who want to enjoy a certain lifestyle and are financially able to live here
Audience Comment: not everything can be measured in dollars and cents – happiness metric – some nonmonetary metrics
Q: Birth rates/death rates declining population, school enrollment – are the people that are leaving
educated? What are the implication of demographics changes– growth in 45-65 year olds.
A.
If you are an employer and 50% of employers are over a certain age, you are wondering how am I going
to replace those retirees – where is that future workforce going to come from.
Audience Reply I get it – Marlboro College graduate center serves a demographic that is coming back for
retraining at age 45.
— 32 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months
Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 33 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Economic Issues & Implications as Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
Economic Issue
Implication
Low Average Wage
• Limits the ability to attract and retain mid and high level skilled workers.
Low Earned Income
as a Proportion of
Personal Income
• Reduces support for a climate of innovation and risk taking central to
economic growth
• Income producing activity declines and so will regional rate of GDP growth
Decreasing % of
Population 25-44
•
•
•
•
Weak Entrepreneurial
Climate
• Limits the attraction of risk based business capital
• Reduced attractiveness to young bright highly educated 25-44 demographic
Lack of Cell and
Broadband Service
• 21st Century “on the go” wireless connected business & workers cannot be
served
• Regions develops a reputation as not enabling or meeting citizens
expectations
• Work and workers serving a 24/7 connected economy will not find region
attractive
Weak Local Economy
& Local Market
• Limits the attraction of new capital and investment
• Not attractive to new business and services, few ROI opportunities
Reduced vibrancy of the community from young personalities and activities
Lower education system enrollments
Reduced family spending on domestic and basic products and services
Businesses cannot grow or will be forced to leave the region due to lack of
workforce.
— 34 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Opportunities and Challenges Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
OPPORTUNITIES:
1.
Vermont Brand
2.
Location
3.
Imminent Technology infrastructure
4.
Manufacturing base
5.
Educational institutions
6.
Recreation
7.
Cultural and Arts
8.
Tourists, second home owners
bringing dollars into region
9.
Key tourism infrastructure
10. Access to government
11. Healthcare Infrastructure
12. Healthy and health-focused population
CHALLENGES:
1.
Lack of Cell Service and Broadband
2.
Weak local market/economy
3.
Declining workforce population
4.
Taxes
5.
Declining earned income
6.
Finding employment – not enough jobs
7.
Lack of investment capital
8.
Disconnect between education and jobs
9.
Capacity -- Lack of critical mass
10. Declining student enrollment
11. Qualified Workforce recruitment
12. Redevelopment capability and capacity
13. Stagnant Real Estate Market
14. Lack of Innovation and true
Entrepreneurship
Source: 2010-2011 SeVEDS Foundation Milestone Meeting Output from Community Leaders
— 35 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Assets and Gaps as Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
Economic & Community Assets
Capacity Gaps
• Precision Technology Driven
Manufacturing
• Incubators
• Redevelopment System
• Logistics
• Workforce Development
• Global presence
• Broadband/Telecom
• Second Homeowners
• Rail
• Natural Environment for Skiing
and Outdoor Recreation
• Post VY Planning
• Concentration of Health and
Mental Health Care Facilities
Source: 2010 - 2011 SeVEDS Asset Mapping Meetings conducted throughout the region
— 36 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Vermont Industry Markets
◊
SeVEDS Niche
Market Sectors
(See Next Page)
♠
♣
♥
♦
◘
◊
◊
♦
♦
♣
♠
◘
♣
♠
♣
♠
♥
♠
♣
♠
♠
♠
Source: Vermont Competitiveness: State and Cluster Economic Performance,
Porter, Michael E., Harvard Business School, paper presented at National
Governors Association Winter Meeting, February 26, 2011
— 37 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
♠
SeVEDS Industry Clusters Opportunities as Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
Based on Asset Mapping, Industry Interviews, and VE Research, the following
Sectors appear to present significant opportunities for SE Vermont:
SE Vermont Economic Sectors
Technology
Driven
Precision
Manufacturing
Business &
Technology
Services
♠
♣
High Quality
Post-Secondary
Education
Logistics
&
Distribution
◘
♦
Hospitality,
Retail &
Tourism
◊
Healthcare
♥
Niche Markets
- Optics
- Medical
Devices
- Aerospace
- Shared
Services
Center
- Software
& IT
Services
- Environmental
Services
- International
Business
& Culture
Center of
Excellence
- Nursing
& Medical
Admin. Support
Source: VE and SeVEDS Asset Mapping and Cluster Analysis
— 38 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
- Assembly &
Distribution
Medical
Devices
- Winter
Sports
- Mental
Healthcare
- Fall Foliage
- NNE Hub
- Arts &
Cultural
- Regional
Health
Services
- Passenger
Rail
Gateway
- Vibrant
Downtown
Retail
Macro Economic Trends SeVEDS Region Should Consider
1. Demographics – Immigration filled 90% of the job growth over the last 15 years
2. Workforce – 2018 - 63% of jobs will require beyond high school education
3. Quality of Place – knowledge workers have a choice, 1st where to live, 2nd
where to work, key to attracting and retaining young worker families
4. On Shoring & Near Shoring – 5M new jobs by 2020
5. Exports – Manufacturing exports to grow 2%-7% to Europe & Japan
6. US Manufacturing Growth – Driven by low cost energy, rising global wage
rates and a reduced risk profile
7. Food Security – growing local food trends, agriculture science, healthy choices
8. Healthcare – healthy communities, extension and improved quality of life
through health sciences, convergence of product innovation and system design
— 39 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Analysis
Trend data shows that the SeVEDS region has been declining as an employment hub
over the past ten years. This is evidenced by the absolute decline in number of jobs in the
region as well as the quality of the employment regardless of age cohort.
Additional data for the labor shed that serves the SeVEDS region demonstrates that
median earnings for those living outside Windham County are far more favorable than for
those living in Windham County, whether in Massachusetts or New Hampshire counties.
The perception of overall high educational attainment across a broad spectrum of the local
populous in the region is not borne out by the data. In fact, the region is producing a much
higher percentage of under-educated younger workers than Vermont or the surrounding
regions under age 45. This flies in the face of increasing trends for workers with high
demand skills across almost all industry sectors.
The preponderance of an undereducated working age population and the inability of the
region to meet workforce demand for high demand middle skill sets results in a staggering
decline in the 20-45 age group, which are the primary birthing and family rearing years.
This reality calls for a real focus on increasing educational attainment in the region.
— 40 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
•
Your ideas or questions….
Q. What percentage of Vermont Yankee jobs are held by Windham county residents?
A.
About 30%
Audience Comment: All of assets and quality of life pieces – seems like opportunity to address energy cost
and food costs – local food systems – successes with manufacturers -rail program
Audience Comment:
We have great cultural vitality in region – vast range need to be added –
Audience Comment:
Building on leverageable – The arts and local agriculture are leverageable.
Audience Comment:
Considerations on dollars lost and jobs lost towards Keene
Q. Can you comment on quality of place and how different demographic s perceive it?
A.
Jeff Lewis tells the quality of place story from SeVEDS informal survey in 2011. Perception was
surprising discovered to be relative to age and stage of life. Older generation perceived the amenities for
entertainment as very good in SE Vermont, while younger generation found amenities severely lacking.
Audience Comment: Business leader spoke about quality of life, young professional, and the workforce
challenges her business – (Chroma)
Audience Comment: Need to make sure that the needs and interest of underemployed or families in
poverty are being heard in the CEDS process.
— 41 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
Break
— 42 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS
Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months
Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 43 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
P→C Builds ROI Rationale for Regional Collaboration
P
C
P=Producer & C=Customer
Friction is the cost of getting from P to C
C
P
Move Up the Value Chain, Capture Greater Share of Value Chain
Margins, Increase Economic Prosperity
— 44 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Regional Economic Swimming Pool
CONSUMER SERVICES SECTOR
activities that directly and indirectly address the
consumption demands of the local residents EXPORT ACTIVITIES*
bring money into the region by selling
goods and/or
IMPORT ACTIVITIES
services of value and importance to
bring in goods and services to
national or international markets
serve the needs and
desires of the community; but
capital flows out
*the only source of new
capital that the region
can use to pay for goods
and services to meet its
needs and desires
SE Vermont Economy
$$$
Investment Attraction Keeps Filling
The Pool (Economy) with More Water (Capital)
— 45 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
•
Your ideas or questions….
— 46 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Role of Quality of Place in a 21st Century Economy
The changing global economy has radically altered the ways
that cities and regions establish and maintain their competitive
edge. Knowledge has largely replaced natural resource
exploitation and the drudgery of oppressive physical labor as
the source of wealth creation and economic growth. In this
new era, a region’s ability to attract and retain a balanced mix
of skills and talents needed for growth has become the key
factor in its economic success. But attracting and retaining
this talent has proven to be something of a challenge.
Conventional wisdom argues that if the jobs are available, the
workers will follow, but the economy today doesn’t quite follow
these rules. Because the demand for talented people outstrips
supply, these skilled workers can essentially choose where to
live and work. When it comes to choosing where to locate,
knowledge workers have definite shopping lists, and regions
that seek to attract them do well to know what they want.
— 47 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Quality of Place Strategies Prioritize Regional Assets
•
Views a community or region as a place with assets versus deficits, which can
be preserved, enhanced and leveraged to achieve improved community and
economic development outcomes.
•
Recognizes that needs must be addressed, but focuses on indigenous
community assets as a foundation for future growth
• Human Capital: Workforce, knowledge and skill assets, work ethic
• Social Capital: building trust, ability to work, plan and act as a group
• Physical Capital: housing, transportation, town centers, infrastructure
• Financial Capital: life cycle equity and debt financing resources
• Environmental Capital: land, natural resources, scenic beauty, recreation
• Cultural Capital: heritage, architecture, arts and culture, performing arts
• Healthy Community Capital: Education, Healthcare, Social Services, Public Safety
•
Builds on these assets to create a better place to live work and play
•
Connects these assets to regional, national and global economic opportunity
— 48 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Quality of Place Connects KBE Assets for a More Effective CEDS
•
Knowledge Based Economy (KBE) versus traditional industrial economy jobs
are the economic growth direction of the 21st century economy
•
In the traditional economy, workers moved to be near jobs. Today, companies
increasingly look to move to where knowledge workers live
•
KBE workers are in greater demand and have the choice of being more
particular about whom they work for and where they live
•
They often choose to live in places that provide their families a high quality of
life. To some extent the job has become secondary to lifestyle amenities
available in the community KBE workers choose
•
Quality of Place strategies deliver livable communities where community and
economic development assets are equal partners for growth
— 49 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Livable Communities Are Key to a Quality of Place Based CEDS
• Livable communities all across America are increasingly popular places in which to live,
work, vacation and retire.
• In the 1990s, 2 million more Americans moved from metropolitan centers to rural areas
than migrated the other way. Communities with natural beauty and a high quality of life
are magnets for businesses, working families and retirees.
• The vast majority of residents, new and old, feel a strong attachment to the landscape
and the character of their town. They want a healthy economy, but not at the expense of
their natural surroundings or community character.
• Elected officials and residents want to find ways to preserve what they love about their
communities without saying no to jobs and economic development.
• Across America, there are communities that have found that economic prosperity does
not demand degraded surroundings, loss of community character or becoming a
congested tourist trap.
• Successful communities are finding that the opposite is true: that beauty pays, that
sustainable tourism provides more benefits than mass-market tourism, that retaining
community character is a key to economic success, that thoughtful management of
public resources and well-planned development can help prosperity occur.
Source: National Geographic Center for Sustainable Destinations, Urban Land Institute and The Conservation Fund Survey
— 50 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Quality of Life – Perceptions versus Reality
This
Dissonance
is
Significant
The Growing Vermont’s Next Generation Workforce report clearly demonstrates that there is a
disconnect between the perception of Vermont Quality of Place values and peoples actions
SeVEDS should develop Quality of Life goals based on NGC “Values vs. Perception” indicators.
Source: Growing Vermont’s Next Generation Workforce, (April 2007), Next Generation Consulting
— 51 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Elements of Quality of Place
Balance: Knowledge workers are highly mobile and essentially balance economic opportunity and lifestyle
in selecting cities and regions that are attractive to them as places to live and work. Thus, challenging,
high-paying, high tech jobs, while obviously necessary, are alone not enough to attract the best and the
brightest.
Labor Market: Knowledge workers are highly mobile and anticipate moving among various employers and
thus favor cities and regions with a “thick labor market” that offers the wide variety of employment
opportunities required to sustain a career in high technology fields.
Amenities: Variety and accessibility of natural, recreational, and lifestyle amenities – is vital in attracting
talent and thus in supporting a broad range of leading-edge high technology firms and industries.
A Blend of Work and Leisure: Knowledge workers seek environments that allow them to blend rather
than separate their work and leisure. Due to the long work hours, fast-pace, and tight deadlines associated
with work in high technology industries, they desire amenities that blend seamlessly with work and can be
accessed quickly on a “just-in-time” basis when free time becomes available.
A Sense of Place: Knowledge workers increasingly prefer urban to suburban neighborhoods and seem
particularly drawn to areas that feature interesting older structures, a range of public spaces, a blend of
personal and commercial space, and the bustle and buzz of varied activity including work, shopping, and
entertainment. They prefer the kind of authenticity and realness found in older cities and neighborhoods to
the generic office complex and strip mall environment found of the “techno-burbs.”
— 52 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Elements of Quality of Place (Cont)
Active Lifestyle: Knowledge workers prefer “doing” to “watching.” They prefer to participate rather than
watch sports and favor a diverse range of intense outdoor activities (rowing, sailing, cycling, rock
climbing). Easy access to water and water-based recreation is particularly important.
Alternative Arts and Culture: Defying traditional assumptions about what makes a region attractive,
knowledge workers are less concerned with “big ticket” amenities such “high-brow” arts and culture or
professional sports. Instead, they prefer a number of smaller, accessible, “street-level” opportunities to
dine, dance, engage in active recreation, and soak up the local music scene.
The Environment: Environment – particularly air and water quality – matters. The new economy
dramatically transforms the role of the environment and natural resources.
Creativity and Innovation: Diversity is not simply an individual preference related to personal lifestyle but
a basic precondition for the creativity and innovation needed to build and sustain a successful high tech
region. Creativity and innovation are the key success factors of the new economy, and new ideas thrive in
diverse environments. In other words, being competitive requires innovation, and innovation in turn
requires diversity.
Educational Opportunities: The 21st Century economy is based on knowledge. Without local high
quality educational opportunities, innovative and creative talent leaves a region, employer face higher
training costs and employment opportunities dwindle.
— 53 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SE Vermont Perceptions of Quality of Place Assets
Balance:
Labor Market:
Amenities:
A Blend of Work and Leisure:
A Sense of Place:
Active Lifestyle:
Alternative Arts and Culture:
The Environment:
Creativity and Innovation:
Educational Opportunities:
Overall Quality of Place Index = 71 out of 100
— 54 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
•
Your ideas or questions….
Q. How many people under 30 in audience – (There were 2 people under 30) The survey results seem
skewed survey because of who is in this room.
Audience Comment:
professionals
I would never have moved here at 25 – that is where our company get younger
Q. How many people in this room have an advanced degree (2/3 raised hands) – That isn’t representative of
population in the larger region – if you aren’t reaching those folks
Educator Comment:
came here from North Carolina – infrastructure of SE Vermont you don’t realize that
small class sizes and quality of ED small class sizes is underutilized in being leveraged for economy
Educator Comment:
Education touches all of these pieces – conversations happen in isolation
Young Professional Comment:
I’m in my 30’s and came to SE Vermont because it is home and I found a
good job – I can’t give you a reason why I’m here – which is why I keep working on SeVEDS
Q. What are we doing with the Q of P index info?
A.
We it’s a measurement at point of time. We use your input to identify areas that need improvement and
areas that are regional strengths.
— 55 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months
Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 56 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SE Vermont Strategic Location
From Brattleboro
Miles
Time by car
Albany, NY
80
2 hrs.
Boston, MA
116
2 hrs. 25 min.
Burlington, VT
151
2 hrs. 30 min.
Hartford, CT
85
1 hr. 25 min.
Montreal
393
4 hrs.
NYC
205
3 hrs. 40 min.
Providence, RI
137
2 hrs. 20 min.
SeVEDS is at the center of
major NNE and Canadian
Population Centers.
The existing affinity for the
region presents
opportunities for economic
growth, that should be
leveraged beyond tourism
& second home ownership.
— 57 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Negative Net Cross-County Commuting Flows
2010
millions of $
Windham Cross-County Earnings
Cross-County Commuting Flows
Total Personal Income
Inflow of Earnings
Outflow of Earnings
Net Residential Adustment (inflow-Outflow
Percent of Total
Net Residential Share of Toal Personal Income
Employed in Windham County
Employed in Windham County but Living Outside
Employed and Living in Windham County
Living in Windham County
Living in Windham County but Employed Outside
Living and Employed Windham County
Net Labor Inflow
Percent of Total
$1,811,582
202,223
294,525
-92,302
-5.1%
Count
21,933
8,868
13,065
19,793
6,728
13,065
2,140
Share
40.4%
59.6%
34.0%
66.0%
9.8%
Inflow of Earning comes from people who work outside the county but bring money home.
Outflow of Earnings are the gross earnings of people who work in the county but reside elsewhere.
Negative Residential Adjustment indicates a net outflow of approximately 5.1 % of total regional
earnings.
The region is a Net Importer of Labor with surrounding counties contributing 9.8% of total workforce.
— 58 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SE Vermont Labor Shed
The economy of SE Vermont
must be viewed in the context
of the broader functional Labor
Shed.
This labor shed transcends
State, County, BDCC, WRPC
and other planning boundaries.
So the question becomes –
How will the SeVEDS region
interact with the broader region
to share assets and collaborate
to discover new opportunities
and increase the economic
vitality and resiliency of the
region?
Source: WRPC Regional Profile
— 59 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Median Earnings by Educational Attainment
$60,000
2009 Median Annual Earnings
$55,000
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
WINDHAM
VERMONT
Cheshire, NH
Sullivan, NH
Franklin, MA
Hampshire, MA
No HS Diploma
HS Graduate
$21,269
$20,698
$24,866
$21,654
$21,604
$23,505
$27,327
$27,231
$30,452
$28,480
$31,254
$31,703
Some College or
Assoc Degree
$26,855
$31,374
$31,653
$32,972
$34,869
$35,248
Bachelor's Degree
Grad or Prof Degree
$32,518
$38,837
$39,857
$42,523
$38,024
$42,480
$42,316
$50,090
$53,647
$52,721
$47,570
$55,568
Median Earnings by Educational Attainment shows the dramatic impact of job loss on wages in SeVEDS.
College grads earn 18% more in Cheshire County, NH and 23% more in Hampshire County, MA.
Source: US Census Bureau
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
— 60 —
Average Wage Comparisons (2011)
2011 Average Annual Wages
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$Windham
Windham
Average Annual Wage $
37,880 $
% of Windham County
VT
VT
40,293 $
106%
ME
MA
NH
US
ME
MA
NH
US
38,020 $
59,671 $
47,281 $
48,043
100%
158%
125%
127%
Wages and Salaries are a function of skills, productivity, and supply/demand forces as
well as the structural make-up of the regional economy. SE Vermont average wage
comparison with neighboring States reveals that the region is at a significant
disadvantage in attracting and retaining a skilled workforce due its lower average wage.
Source: BLS, QCEW 02/2013
— 61 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Regional Asset That Could Be Leveraged –
The NE Next Generation Knowledge Corridor
New England’s Next Generation “Knowledge Corridor”
Windham County’s neighbors to the South are
embarking on a 21st Century regional economic
development strategy leveraging education
and natural assets. The regional strategy has
already solidified a solid and authentic “brand”
identity due to its assets.
• Led by Pioneer Valley Planning
Commission & Capital Region Council of
Governments
• New England’s 2nd largest population
• 43 Cities and 2 counties
• One of the highest concentrations of
higher education in the US,
• 32 higher education institutions
including elite Universities, MIT,
Harvard, UMass, Amherst
Political boarders are not barriers in a VE Journey
— 62 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
• Focus includes;
• Rail infrastructure
• Quality of Place projects
• Super high performance computing
center.
Vermont Industry Markets
◊
SeVEDS Niche
Market Sectors
(See Next Page)
♠
♣
♥
♦
◘
◊
◊
♦
♦
♣
♠
◘
♣
♠
♣
♠
♥
♠
♣
♠
♠
♠
Source: Vermont Competitiveness: State and Cluster Economic Performance, Porter, Michael E., Harvard Business School, paper
presented at National Governors Association Winter Meeting, February 26, 2011
— 63 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
♠
Balanced S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Approach
Industry Sectors
SeVEDS Five Year
Regional Goals
Technology Driven
Precision
Manufacturing
Ratio of Net Earned income
To Total Income
↑ .566 to .65
Logistics &
Distribution
Increase Median
Annual Income
AS/some College
to $32,000/yr.
Business &
IT Services
Goals
Inform
High Quality
Post Secondary
Education
Increase 20-44 age
Employment 20%
Hospitality,
Retail & Tourism
Increase AS/Tech Certs.
For 18-24 age
From 38% to 47%
Healthcare
Strategic Components
CEDS Planning
Business Retention & Expansion
Business Recruitment
Business Incubation
Leadership Training
— 64 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Increase Median
Annual Income
Bachelors Degree
to $39,000/yr.
Increase Pop of
25-44 age by 20%
SeVEDS 2017 Objectives (Goals)
1. Create Operational and Fiscal Sustainability Plan for SeVEDS by
December 2011
2. Improve Wage Parity with Surrounding Labor-shed
3. Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce
4. Increase population proportion of 25-44 year olds from 23% to
28% of total population by 2017
5. Create an Entrepreneurial Environment
— 65 —
© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Projected SeVEDS Region 2017 Goals and Outcomes as of 2010
Note: Baseline and Goals based on 2009 U.S. BEA Data & Estimates
Base SeVEDS Region Metrics
Baseline*
2017 Goal
%Change
Total Change
Population
42,605
42,605
0%
-
Employable Population (16 and older)
35,520*
36,171
+1.8%
+651
65%*
68.8%
+5.8%
-
Total Employed
23,089*
24,894
+7.8%
+1,805
Average Wage
$38,820
$39,848
+2.6%
+$1,028/yr
Total Region Wages
$896M
$992M
+10.7%
$96M
Regional GDP
$2.37B
$2.8B
+18.1%
$430M
Baseline
2017 Goal
Change
.566
.650
+14.1%
Increase Median Annual Income for Associates/Some
College workforce
$26,855
$32,000
+19.1%
Increase Median Annual Income for Bachelors Degree
workforce
$32,518
$39,000
+19.9%
Increase 20-44 employment by 20% in five years (2009 data)
10,691
12,829
20%
+2,138
Increase Associates Degrees/Some College and Technical
Certificates among 18-24 age bracket
38%
(1,495)
47%
(1,884)
+23.6%
+389
9,533
11,439
20%
+1,906
Labor Participation Rate
Regional Strategic Metrics
Ratio Net Earned Income/Total Income
Increase the 25-44 age population by 20% in five years
* Base Line data is as of Spring 2010
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
+$5.145/yr
($2.47/hr)
+$6,482/yr
($3.12/hr)
Your thoughts or Questions
•
Your ideas or questions….
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months
Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Four Milestone Process and Schedule
CEDS Kick-off Event
Jan
Feb
March
17
15
19-20
Kickoff
April
Town Hall Meeting
May
June
• Existing Research
• Four (4) Open Public Input
Events (March)
• Four (4) Community Report
Back Events (May)
• Issues of Challenge &
Opportunity
• Focus Interviews
• Community Engagement
Plan
• Media Campaign
• Begin Analysis of
community input
Sept
Oct
19
Connect
• Sense of Urgency
• Economic Benchmarking &
S.M.A.R.T. Goal Setting
Aug
21-22
Discovery
• CEDS Committee Training
July
• Analyze Community Input
• Prioritize Strategies
Report
• Prepare /Review Draft
CEDS
• Identify & Prioritize
Targeted Industry Clusters
• Town Hall Meeting to
open 30-day public
comment period
• Prioritize Critical capital
project
• Finalize CEDS
• Identify partners
• Develop Implementation
Plan
• Adopt CEDS
• Submit CEDS to EDA
• CEDS Objectives
• CED Readiness Assessment
To Do #3:
Set Bi-Weekly SeVEDS Staff / VE Conference Call Schedule
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Community Engagement Meetings
Round 1 Public Engagement Events – Week of March 18-22


VE in Region 3 Days
Four large open public meetings to collect public input
 Dates?
 Locations?
 Invitees?

Focused business, academic, workforce development, non-profit sector Individual
and group interviews (Round One)
Planning for these events to take
 Dates?
place with SeVEDS Staff and VE
 Who?
following Kickoff Event in February
 Locations?
Round 2 Public Engagement Events – Week of May 20-24

VE in Region 3 Days

Four large open public meetings to report back community input
 Dates?
 Locations?
Focused business, academic, workforce development, non-profit sector Individual
and group interviews (Round Two as needed)
 Dates?
 Who?
 Locations?

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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Report Phase
• Early preliminary draft for CEDS committee review/comment
– To SeVEDS First Week of August
– Review Second Week of August and back to VE
• Late preliminary draft for CEDS review/comment
– Joint VE/SeVEDS review First Week of September
• Town Hall Meeting presentation open public comment period
– September 16 - Publication ready version to SeVEDS
– September 19 - Town Hall Meeting and open public comment period
• Final CEDS Document Revision and Delivery
• Adopting Body(ies) Action
• Submittal to EDA
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
•
•
Your ideas or questions….
Comments:
• Healthy communities
• March meeting dates need to be checked for conflicts
• Need to reach out to families in poverty
• As one of the only people under 30 in room – you’ve got to reach way
out to connect with people under 30. There is a diverse group of
youth in the region 18-30.
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Q&A
www.vitaleconomy.com
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Community Economic Development Kick-off
February 15, 2013
Frank Knott – fknott@vitaleconomy.com
Mark Madsen – mmadsen@priorityone-advisors.com
Jim Haguewood – jim@onegroupconsulting.com
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Background
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Balanced S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Approach
Industry Sectors
SeVEDS Five Year
Regional Goals
Technology Driven
Precision
Manufacturing
Ratio of Net Earned income
To Total Income
↑ .566 to .65
Logistics &
Distribution
Increase Median
Annual Income
AS/some College
to $32,000/yr.
Business &
IT Services
Goals
Inform
High Quality
Post Secondary
Education
Increase 20-44 age
Employment 20%
Hospitality,
Retail & Tourism
Increase AS/Tech Certs.
For 18-24 age
From 38% to 47%
Healthcare
Strategic Components
CEDS Planning
Business Retention & Expansion
Business Recruitment
Business Incubation
Leadership Training
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Increase Median
Annual Income
Bachelors Degree
to $39,000/yr.
Increase Pop of
25-44 age by 20%
P→C Builds ROI Rationale for Regional Collaboration
P
C
P=Producer & C=Customer
Friction is the cost of getting from P to C
C
P
Move Up the Value Chain, Capture Greater Share of Value Chain
Margins, Increase Economic Prosperity
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Regional Economic Swimming Pool
CONSUMER SERVICES SECTOR
activities that directly and indirectly address the
consumption demands of the local residents EXPORT ACTIVITIES*
bring money into the region by selling
goods and/or
IMPORT ACTIVITIES
services of value and importance to
bring in goods and services to
national or international markets
serve the needs and
desires of the community; but
capital flows out
*the only source of new
capital that the region
can use to pay for goods
and services to meet its
needs and desires
SE Vermont Economy
$$$
Investment Attraction Keeps Filling
The Pool (Economy) with More Water (Capital)
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
3 Keys to Economic Transformation
Collaboration
Builds Sufficient Critical Mass to Compete Globally, while
Emerging Cluster Strategies Assure Regional growth
+
Connectivity
Links Geographically Remote Resources to Increase Access, while
Creating Opportunity, Building Diversification, Enabling Collaboration
+
Changed Spending
Increases Productivity and Revenues
Opens New Markets, Expands Opportunity,
Establishes Measurable Benchmarks and Goals
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Eight Steps for Leading Change
Implementing & Sustaining
Transformation
8. Make it Stick
7. Sustain the Change
Engaging & Enabling
the Whole Community
6. Create Short-term Wins
5. Empower Others to Act
Creating a Climate
for Change
4. Communicate for Buy-in
3. Define the Change Impacts
2. Create the Vision & Build the Guiding Team
1. Create a Sense of Shared Need & Urgency
Based on Kotter, John P. Leading Change. Boston: Harvard Business School Press
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Key Issues Facing U.S. Economy
•
•
•
•
•
Significant changes in economic structure
•
Increased government intervention and control in private sector (Banking,
Insurance, Auto industries)
•
Banking failures, & auto industry restructuring
•
Instability and volatility in financial markets world-wide
Awareness and focus on local and global environmental issues
•
Natural resources and environment formerly regarded as exploitable
resources and receptors of production stream waste residue respectively.
•
Now the same resources are recognized as important resources to be wisely
used and held in stewardship for future generations.
•
Increased consciousness of transportation costs and environmental impacts
shipping goods long distances.
•
There is significant interest and investment in “Clean Technologies.
Prevailing high unemployment
•
“Jobless Recovery” is prevailing outlook for 2010-2012
Consumer confidence and spending is still Flat
Cautious business spending patterns
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Vision → Objectives → Goals → Assets → Strategies → Actions
Objectives & Goal Metrics:
•
Increase the Average Wage and proportion of personal income from earned income
•
•
•
•
Improve Wage Parity with surrounding counties (the labor shed)
•
↑ Increase Median Annual Income for Associates/Some College to $32,000
•
↑ Increase Median Annual Income for Bachelors Degree to $39,000
Increase the size and quality of the workforce
•
↑ Increase 20-44 employment by 20% in five years
•
↑ Increase Associate Degrees/Some College and Technical Certificates among
18-24 year old age bracket from 38% to 47%
Increase population proportion of 25-44 year olds
•
•
↑ Ratio Net Earned Income / Total Income from .566 to .65
↑ Increase the absolute number of people in 25-44 age bracket by 20% in five
years
Create an entrepreneurial environment
•
Define and implement an Innovation Ecosystem within 3 years
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
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© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.